MTGO Statistics is largely irrelevant to describe the power level of certain decks and cards because of the economics of MTGO. Looking at live tournaments is much more relevant, and here are the statistics from MTGTop8 for the last 2 months of reported live tournaments:
2. You went beyond comparing the two datasets and tried to imply things based on that relationship. If your point is that the data is similar and you aren't making a different point then that is fine provided your data is reliable. If anything that bolsters my position though; daily events are *not* that competitive and if the MTGO premier events are the same as those events then then...well, you do the math. I just don't think MTGO results tell us much about high level play.
I'm fine with not using MTGO stats. I even mentioned all their limitations in my post. Let's just stick with paper if you prefer.
Nr.1: BGx (Jund, Junk and Rock): 21%
Nr.2: Splinter Twin: 12%
Nr.3: Affinity: 12%
Nr.4: UWx Midrange: 8% (The deck you moved away from the "Proven" section)
Nr.5: Birthing Pod: 8%
Tarmogoyf is played in 27,2% of 283 decks with high placing in professional, major or competitive events in the last 2 months.
Tarmogoyf is played in 35,1% of 27 splinter Twin decks with high placing in professional, major or competitive events in the last 2 months.
And the SCG Modern tournaments where we all know BGx was completely dominating is not among the reported events for this statistics, so that would further increase the dominating position of BGx and Tarmogoyf.
MTG Top 8 is not a great site for metagame breakdowns. Your example of "UWx Midrange" is a great illustration of that. Does this deck look like midrange? What about this bad boy with Wrath of God in the maindeck? This one isn't even UWR Midrange. It's pure UW. We find errors like that across their site (BG Souls =/= Junk, RG Tron and Mono U Tron are grouped together, etc.)
It also doesn't include all the events. Where are the Berkeley, Chicago, and Bountiful PTQs, to name a few? Or Riccione or Vilinus? There are just too many events not included in their dataset to make it reliable.
MTG Top 8 isn't perfect, but probably the best we have. They include a high percentage of high level event results, but some are missing, that is correct. They have a submit-button at their website where we can submit events and links to events that's not in their database. I have informed them of some missing events now.
I agree with you some UWR Control decks are wrongly in the UWx Midrange category and I have informed them about this and asked them to sort it out and perhaps pick a number of creatures (maybe 10?) to separate UWx midrange and control. You are struggling with this distinction yourself and have even categorized ~15 creatures midrange UWR Resto/Wall/Kiki/Clique/Snapcaster decks in the UWR Control section. I have answered you in the UWR Control thread about this. The UW midrange deck you're pointing at is in the UWx Midrange category because it's defined as "UWx", so it's not just for UWR decks.
You ask why I don't play green, its for money reasons. I'm not willing to pay that extra 900 just for a couple of vanilla beaters.
And so your BW deck will stay inferior because white doesn't have a two-drop that's even close to the power-level of mister cheese-goyf. In legacy, BW (Deadguy Ale) is actually a thing because there is a good white two drop - Stoneforge Mystic, and also a good removal spell - Vindicate - that kills lands among other things. BW in modern just drew the short straw to BG and BGw. (What did you get for Orzhov recently when golgari got Abrupt Decay, Deathrite, Ooze, Courser of Kruphix and golgari charm? You got Orzhov Charm - congrats:) )
So if Tarmogoyf is to stay legal in modern, and the format is to stay somewhat balanced, Wizards really need to start printing or unbanning other two-drops at a comparable power-level to goyf. As of now, it's pretty unbalanced when BG has the good two-drops (Goyf, Bob and Ooze) . Snapcaster mage is a good card when cast as a three-drop or four-drop or more. White and red doesn't have two-drops at a comparable power level. That's why BGx is still dominating with around 21% top placings in live tournaments last 2 months.
Where are people getting their statistics from? BGx at 21% of the meta, really?
My post 20 hours back:
MTGO Statistics is largely irrelevant to describe the power level of certain decks and cards because of the economics of MTGO. Looking at live tournaments is much more relevant, and here are the statistics from MTGTop8 for the last 2 months of reported live tournaments:
Nr.1: BGx (Jund, Junk and Rock): 21%
Nr.2: Splinter Twin: 12%
Nr.3: Affinity: 12%
Nr.4: UWx Midrange: 8% (The deck you moved away from the "Proven" section)
Nr.5: Birthing Pod: 8%
Tarmogoyf is played in 27,2% of 283 decks with high placing in professional, major or competitive events in the last 2 months.
Tarmogoyf is played in 35,1% of 27 splinter Twin decks with high placing in professional, major or competitive events in the last 2 months.
And the SCG Modern tournaments where we all know BGx was completely dominating is not among the reported events for this statistics, so that would further increase the dominating position of BGx and Tarmogoyf.
I have asked MTG Top 8 to include the SCG Open Modern events (where BGx have completely dominated the last weeks) that's so far lacking in their database, so I think the BGx percentage will actually increase when they are in. The percentages you are bringing up is MTGO, and that's not really interesting in terms of competitive play.
MTG Top 8 isn't perfect, but probably the best we have. They include a high percentage of high level event results, but some are missing, that is correct. They have a submit-button at their website where we can submit events and links to events that's not in their database. I have informed them of some missing events now.
I agree with you some UWR Control decks are wrongly in the UWx Midrange category and I have informed them about this and asked them to sort it out and perhaps pick a number of creatures (maybe 10?) to separate UWx midrange and control. You are struggling with this distinction yourself and have even categorized ~15 creatures midrange UWR Resto/Wall/Kiki/Clique/Snapcaster decks in the UWR Control section. I have answered you in the UWR Control thread about this. The UW midrange deck you're pointing at is in the UWx Midrange category because it's defined as "UWx", so it's not just for UWR decks.
We classify the ~15 creature Kiki decks as UWR Kiki Control in the dataset. They aren't quite the UWR Midrange decks that run Geist and similar aggressive creatures in high quantities, and they also aren't UWR Control in its pure form. Hence, their own tag. The struggle that I was talking about in that thread was not how to classify them (that's obvious - UWR Kiki Control) but where we want to encourage discussion about them on this forum (less obvious); and we don't just want to make a new UWR Kiki Control thread, even if that is probably the easiest solution.
I bring up the UW Midrange deck because people say "Look at UWx Midrange! It's so high on that site why isn't it in Proven here?" That's because their UWx Midrange category includes decks that are not actually midrange, and not actually UWR Midrange. We have separate threads for UW Mirange and UWR Midrange, so one deck doing well wouldn't count towards the whole total.
If we look at just PTQs (59 events in total, see "BONUS: Metagame - PTQ Season" tab in spreadsheet), we see BGx at around 17-18%%
Jund: 8.5%
BG Rock: 8%
Junk: 1%
Which, incidentally, is about the same prevalence of BGx when DRS got banned (~17%). The difference now is that there are no obvious ban targets, because nothing is individually more broken than DRS, and that not everyone is in agreement that BGx is itself too strong.
To me this remains a card pool issue. BGx has by FAR the most powerful cards in the format; Decay/Bob/Lilly/TS/IoK/Goyf/Scooze. All of those are so strong as to see consistent Legacy play, let alone Modern play. Meanwhile, blue durdles around with Serum Vision, Mana Leak, and Cryptic Command. Aggro is stuck on its love affair with Affinity and Burn, decks that have much higher relative power levels than anything else that might compete (Merfolk sans Daze/Wasteland, Goblins sans Piledriver/Ringleader, etc.).
I'm of the opinion that we just need to wait and see. If BGx is indeed becoming too strong, then we are exactly where we were a year ago, and the time to act would be in January 2015 as it was in January 2014. So we have almost 5 months of events left before action is really needed. And who knows; maybe we get an unban come September and new awesome tools come KTK.
Yeah the ban list is not the tool to fix the format at this point. At risk of getting a warning, the format needs NEW CARDS or reprints/functional reprints from the pre-modern era. And, call me a shameless Island-Lover if you will but the new tools, most of them at least need to be BLUE. Its the only color that never gets paired with BGx in the formats most successgul decks. Sure theres the risk that the rock becomes bug. If powerful new tools get printed in red or white they have to be made in some way to work less optimally with BG than blue. For everyone happy that the format isn't blue dominated you have to understand that it still isn't actually BALANCED. Its golgari land over here.
Edit: Someone defend Preordain's position on the banned list. I know its one of Forsythe's big no-no's but I truly don't see why. I don't see the format devolving into solely blue decks or twin domination with a preordain unban.
That banning vanilla beater is a really poor decision?
Wizards prints a vanilla 20/20 for 1 mana. Fair card? Yes or no?
No, but not for the reasons you may think. If you drop that on T1 on the play then you've cut the opponent to only 1cmc spells to deal with it, which limits it to Path, Vapor Snag, Rapid Hybridization (not really played in Modern), etc. I can't think of any black cards that can kill it unless it's green or white (Deathmark). Now, if you had said CMC 2 or higher, I'd actually have to think about it for a second.
That said, you should know you're being highly ridiculous with that question. The largest 'goyf can get is 8/9 (Tribal, Enchantment, Planeswalker, Artifact, Creature, Instant, Socery, Land). It's typically a 4/5 (so no Tribal, Planeswalker, Enchantment, Artifact). Post-board or if the opponent kills my Liliana then 'Goyf is a 5/6. Yes, it's powerful. Yes, it's pushed. But it's definitely not unfair. Especially when you rarely want to play it T2 anyway. You typically want to grind them out of removal and build up the graveyard first. So is playing a 4/5 on T5 fair? Add to that the ridiculously easy GY hate (much of which is already in boards because of Snapcaster) and he becomes a very fair card.
I actually think that Goyf is unfair, but given that you think a 20/20 for 2 is worthy of consideration there isn't much for us to say to each other. You're too far off in la la land.
For someone who puts a lot of stock into analytic skills you've missed the fact that I never said that. "Think about it for a second" does not mean I find it worthy of consideration.
And you're dead wrong about people not playing Goyf on turn 2. Hand disruption spell into goyf is one of the most common openings in Modern.
In BG/x there are multiple keep-able hands that do not include T1 discard. If you miss that on T1, and it's a statistically high likelihood, then you're usually not dropping 'goyf on T2. Additionally, if you have both Dark Confidant and 'Goyf in hand on T2, Dark Confidant should typically be played first. If you're seeing T2 'Goyf as often as you're implying you do, then you're observing people with not much else to play on T2, or people trying to jam it and pray, or bad players. And those 3 things aren't exclusive of each other. Since you seem to be observing sub-par play, perhaps it's your data we should be questioning.
I don't think that Confidant over Goyf is as correct as you think it is. If I think my opponent has a removal spell I strongly prefer for them to use it on my Goyf, and there are other reasons to play it out as well. In any case, what about the draws where you don't have Confidant? I never said that people always play it out on turn 2, I said it was a common opening.. It is. I don't know why you are wasting your time making an argument against a position I never defended.
Yeah the ban list is not the tool to fix the format at this point. At risk of getting a warning, the format needs NEW CARDS or reprints/functional reprints from the pre-modern era. And, call me a shameless Island-Lover if you will but the new tools, most of them at least need to be BLUE. Its the only color that never gets paired with BGx in the formats most successgul decks. Sure theres the risk that the rock becomes bug. If powerful new tools get printed in red or white they have to be made in some way to work less optimally with BG than blue. For everyone happy that the format isn't blue dominated you have to understand that it still isn't actually BALANCED. Its golgari land over here.
Edit: Someone defend Preordain's position on the banned list. I know its one of Forsythe's big no-no's but I truly don't see why. I don't see the format devolving into solely blue decks or twin domination with a preordain unban.
What don't you understand? Preordain makes combo decks *much* more consistent and strongly increases the power of blue decks. The more powerful a format is the strong cards like Preordain are, which is why they are often restricted in freaking Vintage. The only reason Brainstorm is legal in Legacy is that people like it and are okay with blue dominating everything.
1. The best cards in any format of any type warp the format around themselves. Ban goyf and another card takes his place.
2. Goyf isn't what invalidates aggro. Aggro can run goyf itself and it can run removal to clear goyfs. It is the dominance of midrange and combo that invalidates many aggro plans.
3. The only combo deck that started running goyf as another angle of attack is rug twin. It is an inferior deck to ur tempo twin. It sacrifices consistancy and the ability to steal games with blood moon for an easily delt with plan B.
4. I agree goyf is prohibitively expensive. However BGx without goyf is still roughly $1000+ to build. If wizards began to employ a policy of banning cards once they reach a particular price point then the repercussions on the secondary market would be greater than anything we've seen since the printing of chronicles. It won't happen. The secondary market keeps this game alive.
People reacting to a card is not the same as a card warping a format. The question is how much of a response that card requires and how large its impact is. Detention Sphere impacts Standard and people have reacted to its presence. It has NEVER warped the format the way Mutavault did.
Goyf isone of the reasons has such a hard time. If you deny that you are simply wrong. It's a huge creature that can be played for 2 mana. I also find it odd to list the "dominance" of midrange as a reason for aggro's failure as if Tarmogoyf isn't part of what makes midrange so good against so many decks.
I don't think it's inferior to regular twin. it depends on the metagame. Saying "it's easily dealt with" overlooks the fact that it uses goyf to help set up its combo in many cases. It's part of Plan A just the way Bolt is.
Most expensive cards are not as important as goyf. Not even fetches.
If you are going to argue that goyf is more important than fetchlands in modern you simply can't be taken seriously. I will wait for your confirmation that that is in fact your stance on those cards before I continue attempting to argue here.
I was talking about price there. I meant that most expensive cards other than Goyf aren't as much of a barrier to entry, and I phrased my comment awkwardly. I've been posting from my phone.
Edit: Someone defend Preordain's position on the banned list. I know its one of Forsythe's big no-no's but I truly don't see why. I don't see the format devolving into solely blue decks or twin domination with a preordain unban.
All you have to do is compare Preordain to Serum Visions. Being able to scry first and then draw makes all the difference in the world because it gives you full control over what you're going to be digging into. Serum Visions gives you a good chance of drawing into garbage that normally you could have scryed away first with Preordain.
Preordain was printed back when R&D greatly underestimated cheap handsculpting. That's why we've never seen it return to Standard after Ponder was in M12, because R&D re-evaluated the handsculpting spells and concluded that they were undercosted for the amount of consistency they provide to decks. I believe Gavin Verhey said this on his Twitter account a while back, but he said that Ponder and Preordain would cost at least 1U if they were designed today.
Yes its restricted in vintage but its also fine in legacy. Cards like brainstorm ponder and preordain are restricted in vintage not be because they're so mindblowingly powerful but because the rest of your deck is built from restricted cards as well. Reducing variance in vintage leads to consistent turn 1 kills as opposed to consistant turn 4 kills. Its the carxs they are surrounded by that makes them dangerous.
Look at the tools Rock decks have at their disposal. Its like the moderator said earlier, you see them just as much in modern as you do legacy. Blue cards? Some legacy decks run snapcaster or v clique but rarely together as they are considered to occupy the same spot on the curve. I say rarely not never, mind you. And thats about it. Delver is everywhere in legacy and tier 2 in modern. Remand, mana leak and cryptic command are embarrassing in legacy. Spell snare shows up occasionally. Spell pierce is more important to legacy than it is to modern. Everywhere in legacy and modern you see Bob goyf lilly and thoughtseize but Counterspell? That card thats almost unplayable now in legacy? Too good for modern! "Well modern isn't legacy and I dont want modern to just be legacy-lite" some people say. Well I ask why is it then that only BG can have legacy caliber cards and no one else can?
I'll agree that ponder shouldnt be in modern but preordain is FINE. It will give a boost to all the tempo and hard control decks sitting at tier 2 and will give twin and uwr a slight nudge. They wont overnight become the best decks because the Rock is already so miles beyond anything else they are playing. Will it shut out decks like hate bears or 8 rack? Maybe for a little while but wizards are pumping out new bears with each set (hey preordain might even make Spirit of the Lab good) and 8 racks.... listen preordain is fine.
And Im not continuing the goyf argument. No point. Id even say preordain has a better shot coming off than goyf has of getting on.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
When people call for a ban on treasure cruise: "But I don't WANNA draw 3 cards!"
Yes its restricted in vintage but its also fine in legacy. Cards like brainstorm ponder and preordain are restricted in vintage not be because they're so mindblowingly powerful but because the rest of your deck is built from restricted cards as well. Reducing variance in vintage leads to consistent turn 1 kills as opposed to consistant turn 4 kills. Its the carxs they are surrounded by that makes them dangerous.
Look at the tools Rock decks have at their disposal. Its like the moderator said earlier, you see them just as much in modern as you do legacy. Blue cards? Some legacy decks run snapcaster or v clique but rarely together as they are considered to occupy the same spot on the curve. I say rarely not never, mind you. And thats about it. Delver is everywhere in legacy and tier 2 in modern. Remand, mana leak and cryptic command are embarrassing in legacy. Spell snare shows up occasionally. Spell pierce is more important to legacy than it is to modern. Everywhere in legacy and modern you see Bob goyf lilly and thoughtseize but Counterspell? That card thats almost unplayable now in legacy? Too good for modern! "Well modern isn't legacy and I dont want modern to just be legacy-lite" some people say. Well I ask why is it then that only BG can have legacy caliber cards and no one else can?
I'll agree that ponder shouldnt be in modern but preordain is FINE. It will give a boost to all the tempo and hard control decks sitting at tier 2 and will give twin and uwr a slight nudge. They wont overnight become the best decks because the Rock is already so miles beyond anything else they are playing. Will it shut out decks like hate bears or 8 rack? Maybe for a little while but wizards are pumping out new bears with each set (hey preordain might even make Spirit of the Lab good) and 8 racks.... listen preordain is fine.
And Im not continuing the goyf argument. No point. Id even say preordain has a better shot coming off than goyf has of getting on.
Legacy has much better tools to fight against combo decks. When you have cards like Force of Will and Wasteland to disrupt your opponent it is somewhat more acceptable for cards like Brainstorm, Ponder, and Preordain to be legal. That said, Brainstorm still dominates the format and warps everything else around its existence. Modern doesn't have the tools it needs to fight against combo decks that are super powerful and consistent, so it makes sense to keep Preordain and Ponder on the banned list. I would be okay with unbanning preordain if a playable free counter spell were printed in a Modern legal set; Disrupting Shoal just isn't going to cut it. I also think you underestimating just how good Twin is in the current format. I don't think that GBx variants are much better than Twin variants, and Preordain would be a huge upgrade for the deck. It's not just a matter of twin though, the existence of Preordain would enable combo decks forever.
The combo decks arent nearly as powerful in modern as legacy though. The BG match is horrible for twin. Not unwinnable but many things must go right for you and wrong for the opponent. Free countermagic AND decent library manipulation is what would put modern into blue territory. I dont want that. Preodrain makes blue's bg matchup go from horrendous to unfavorable. Pod stays good. Affinity stays good (perhaps even adopting it, though unlikely). Tron stays tron (blue variants get better). What combo decks become insane with preordain? What deck is that simply the backbreaker for? I honestly think it just catches the rest of the format up to BG.
Preordain was printed back when R&D greatly underestimated cheap handsculpting. That's why we've never seen it return to Standard after Ponder was in M12, because R&D re-evaluated the handsculpting spells and concluded that they were undercosted for the amount of consistency they provide to decks. I believe Gavin Verhey said this on his Twitter account a while back, but he said that Ponder and Preordain would cost at least 1U if they were designed today.
That takes me back to when I was a casual player with decks that were made of the Portal cards I bought at the dollar store before I knew the rules of the game because the art was cool. I remember playing with a card called Omen that was so much better than I ever gave it credit for because I was a bad player. I guess Ponder was an experiment to see how far they could push it.
The combo decks arent nearly as powerful in modern as legacy though. The BG match is horrible for twin. Not unwinnable but many things must go right for you and wrong for the opponent. Free countermagic AND decent library manipulation is what would put modern into blue territory. I dont want that. Preodrain makes blue's bg matchup go from horrendous to unfavorable. Pod stays good. Affinity stays good (perhaps even adopting it, though unlikely). Tron stays tron (blue variants get better). What combo decks become insane with preordain? What deck is that simply the backbreaker for? I honestly think it just catches the rest of the format up to BG.
Welcome to the world of different formats and not all of them being cookie cutters of each other. Kudos to Wotc for making Modern different from other formats!
Also I would say your evaluation of preordain is in the minority. AF (Wotc) doesnt want P or P in the format, many players understand how they would (either of them) would tilt the format. Not only towards blue, but consistency that can not be found in other colors.
Edit: Someone defend Preordain's position on the banned list. I know its one of Forsythe's big no-no's but I truly don't see why. I don't see the format devolving into solely blue decks or twin domination with a preordain unban.
All you have to do is compare Preordain to Serum Visions. Being able to scry first and then draw makes all the difference in the world because it gives you full control over what you're going to be digging into. Serum Visions gives you a good chance of drawing into garbage that normally you could have scryed away first with Preordain.
Preordain was printed back when R&D greatly underestimated cheap handsculpting. That's why we've never seen it return to Standard after Ponder was in M12, because R&D re-evaluated the handsculpting spells and concluded that they were undercosted for the amount of consistency they provide to decks. I believe Gavin Verhey said this on his Twitter account a while back, but he said that Ponder and Preordain would cost at least 1U if they were designed today.
The only reason why they have had this reaction to library manipulation and card-draw is because of Scars/Innistrad Standard Delver. If they weren't making cards like Snapcaster Mage and Delver of Secrets, they wouldn't have this problem.
Yes its restricted in vintage but its also fine in legacy. Cards like brainstorm ponder and preordain are restricted in vintage not be because they're so mindblowingly powerful but because the rest of your deck is built from restricted cards as well. Reducing variance in vintage leads to consistent turn 1 kills as opposed to consistant turn 4 kills. Its the carxs they are surrounded by that makes them dangerous.
Look at the tools Rock decks have at their disposal. Its like the moderator said earlier, you see them just as much in modern as you do legacy. Blue cards? Some legacy decks run snapcaster or v clique but rarely together as they are considered to occupy the same spot on the curve. I say rarely not never, mind you. And thats about it. Delver is everywhere in legacy and tier 2 in modern. Remand, mana leak and cryptic command are embarrassing in legacy. Spell snare shows up occasionally. Spell pierce is more important to legacy than it is to modern. Everywhere in legacy and modern you see Bob goyf lilly and thoughtseize but Counterspell? That card thats almost unplayable now in legacy? Too good for modern! "Well modern isn't legacy and I dont want modern to just be legacy-lite" some people say. Well I ask why is it then that only BG can have legacy caliber cards and no one else can?
I'll agree that ponder shouldnt be in modern but preordain is FINE. It will give a boost to all the tempo and hard control decks sitting at tier 2 and will give twin and uwr a slight nudge. They wont overnight become the best decks because the Rock is already so miles beyond anything else they are playing. Will it shut out decks like hate bears or 8 rack? Maybe for a little while but wizards are pumping out new bears with each set (hey preordain might even make Spirit of the Lab good) and 8 racks.... listen preordain is fine.
And Im not continuing the goyf argument. No point. Id even say preordain has a better shot coming off than goyf has of getting on.
Look at the tools Rock decks have at their disposal. Its like the moderator said earlier, you see them just as much in modern as you do legacy. Blue cards? Some legacy decks run snapcaster or v clique but rarely together as they are considered to occupy the same spot on the curve. I say rarely not never, mind you. And thats about it. Delver is everywhere in legacy and tier 2 in modern. Remand, mana leak and cryptic command are embarrassing in legacy. Spell snare shows up occasionally. Spell pierce is more important to legacy than it is to modern. Everywhere in legacy and modern you see Bob goyf lilly and thoughtseize but Counterspell? That card thats almost unplayable now in legacy? Too good for modern! "Well modern isn't legacy and I dont want modern to just be legacy-lite" some people say. Well I ask why is it then that only BG can have legacy caliber cards and no one else can?
Because, to be frank, Blue is so overpowered in Legacy that Blue cards need to "work extra hard" to be worthy of play.
Also, Rock did get something banned: Deathrite Shaman. Also, while technically not "BG", Bloodbraid Elf was mostly just played in those BG decks (and was why Jund was basically the only BGx deck around before it got banned).
Is there any precedent for Wizards changing the stats, costs, attributes on a card? Would such a thing be possible? If they reprinted goyf at GG and */*, and pushed out announcements to shops and events?
Is there any precedent for Wizards changing the stats, costs, attributes on a card? Would such a thing be possible? If they reprinted goyf at GG and */*, and pushed out announcements to shops and events?
I have never heard of it.
If they 'reprint' Goyf as GG and */* it would have a new name and every deck could play 8 Goyfish cards. Not going to happen.
Is there any precedent for Wizards changing the stats, costs, attributes on a card? Would such a thing be possible? If they reprinted goyf at GG and */*, and pushed out announcements to shops and events?
I have never heard of it.
If they 'reprint' Goyf as GG and */* it would have a new name and every deck could play 8 Goyfish cards. Not going to happen.
Bleh it'd be yet another fixed version of a good card, like the endless attempts to make a balanced bob. It'd be ignored and a five cent rare.
Is there any precedent for Wizards changing the stats, costs, attributes on a card? Would such a thing be possible? If they reprinted goyf at GG and */*, and pushed out announcements to shops and events?
[quote from="bocephus »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/565050-current-modern-banlist-discussion-7-2014-update?comment=917"]Bleh it'd be yet another fixed version of a good card
Sorry, I meant specifically that goyf would become a provisional card and not legally playable with it's printed stats. I'm talking about if Wizards would be able to change an already printed card.
[quote from="animalshaker »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/565050-current-modern-banlist-discussion-7-2014-update?comment=916"]Is there any precedent for Wizards changing the stats, costs, attributes on a card? Would such a thing be possible? If they reprinted goyf at GG and */*, and pushed out announcements to shops and events?
Bleh it'd be yet another fixed version of a good card
Sorry, I meant specifically that goyf would become a provisional card and not legally playable with it's printed stats. I'm talking about if Wizards would be able to change an already printed card.
</blockquote>
Ah. I wouldn't like that. It's a slippery slope leading to a lot of good cards getting safe versions, like if pod was banned for yisan. This simply isn't a format I'd wanna play in. Fact is, yes BGx is very very good. But I think it's been nerfed enough and it's only a matter of time til power level rises for other color combinations. Think of it this way, it's a known issue so I doubt there will be many more strong BGx shell cards coming in the near future.
If unbanning P & P lead to a more diverse format, I'm guessing the majority of players would be for it. Also, I don't think saying that "the majority of players don't want them" is accurate. Look at what other 1 mana spells can do in the format: Thoughtseize, IoK, Path, and Bolt to name a few. Ponder and Preordain are on the power level of these cards. Unbanning a few things in the colors that aren't that strong right now (Red/White/Blue) would go a long way in the format as far as color balance and archetype balance.
And while I'm glad Aaron Forscythe gave his opinion, I'm also glad he doesn't alone decide what is best for the format because 3 of the cards he named could help out the format. I'll also say, let's not forget that the last time Aaron Forscythe named a card that would never be unbanned (Bitterblossom) and the discussion that caused. And then less then 3 months later it was unbanned and...nothing happened in the format. No big shake up. No crazy Tier 0 deck. It was not slotted into B/G/x as many thought it might be. So not discussing cards simply because A.F. has deemed them unsafe would be a mistake, at least in my view.
Finally, on the topic of B/G/x, ktkenshinx is right. More bans would be a mistake for the format, even if B/G/x is once again over represented in the format. That would make 3 bans, trying to depower what amounts to a goodstuff.deck. If other colors had stronger cards, the format would even itself out color wise and B/G/x wouldn't be so played (theoretically). Also, can we please stop arguing over whether card X is not a good idea to unban because it can be slotted into B/G/x? Please? Because here's a news flash: every card in U, W, and R can be slotted in. It's not helping to create a productive discussion.
Edit: Also, Sheepz, they are actively watching B/G cards. The card based around Persephone that was supposed to be in BNG or JIN (I forget offhand) was B/G and was removed due to possible Modern implications. Also, Pharika was changed last second as she was seen as too strong, though if it was in Modern or Standard I don't know.
Yeah the ban list is not the tool to fix the format at this point. At risk of getting a warning, the format needs NEW CARDS or reprints/functional reprints from the pre-modern era. And, call me a shameless Island-Lover if you will but the new tools, most of them at least need to be BLUE. Its the only color that never gets paired with BGx in the formats most successgul decks. Sure theres the risk that the rock becomes bug. If powerful new tools get printed in red or white they have to be made in some way to work less optimally with BG than blue. For everyone happy that the format isn't blue dominated you have to understand that it still isn't actually BALANCED. Its golgari land over here.
Edit: Someone defend Preordain's position on the banned list. I know its one of Forsythe's big no-no's but I truly don't see why. I don't see the format devolving into solely blue decks or twin domination with a preordain unban.
What don't you understand? Preordain makes combo decks *much* more consistent and strongly increases the power of blue decks. The more powerful a format is the strong cards like Preordain are, which is why they are often restricted in freaking Vintage. The only reason Brainstorm is legal in Legacy is that people like it and are okay with blue dominating everything.
Preordain helps twin and Ad nauseam, in storm it would make ittle difference, what that deck need most is ritual. Reasons why brainstorm is legal in legacy is a) It doesnt give you any bonus cards b) It is one of hardest cards to play correctly and c) Because it is generaly only realy good if you have uncracked fetchland ready (even though some times it is "just in case"). Blue is not dominating everything because of brainstorm, sure if you play blue you probably play brainstorm, but main reason why blue is needed is obviously Force fo will.
That is not correct. Both Fow and Brainstorm play a role, but Brainstorm is the more powerful card overall. And yes, it's usually only busted when you have a fetchland. Fortunately for Legacy players it's easy to run a bunch of fetchlands in that format, which means Brainstorm is pretty busted most of the time. It is the most powerful card in Legacy and defines the format.
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Are you talking the mothership or on MODO? Because the mothership doesnt even post all the events, they are selective on what they put on there.
If you are talking MODO, you have to catch the results before they get shuffled out of existence.
MTG Top 8 isn't perfect, but probably the best we have. They include a high percentage of high level event results, but some are missing, that is correct. They have a submit-button at their website where we can submit events and links to events that's not in their database. I have informed them of some missing events now.
I agree with you some UWR Control decks are wrongly in the UWx Midrange category and I have informed them about this and asked them to sort it out and perhaps pick a number of creatures (maybe 10?) to separate UWx midrange and control. You are struggling with this distinction yourself and have even categorized ~15 creatures midrange UWR Resto/Wall/Kiki/Clique/Snapcaster decks in the UWR Control section. I have answered you in the UWR Control thread about this. The UW midrange deck you're pointing at is in the UWx Midrange category because it's defined as "UWx", so it's not just for UWR decks.
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
And so your BW deck will stay inferior because white doesn't have a two-drop that's even close to the power-level of mister cheese-goyf. In legacy, BW (Deadguy Ale) is actually a thing because there is a good white two drop - Stoneforge Mystic, and also a good removal spell - Vindicate - that kills lands among other things. BW in modern just drew the short straw to BG and BGw. (What did you get for Orzhov recently when golgari got Abrupt Decay, Deathrite, Ooze, Courser of Kruphix and golgari charm? You got Orzhov Charm - congrats:) )
So if Tarmogoyf is to stay legal in modern, and the format is to stay somewhat balanced, Wizards really need to start printing or unbanning other two-drops at a comparable power-level to goyf. As of now, it's pretty unbalanced when BG has the good two-drops (Goyf, Bob and Ooze) . Snapcaster mage is a good card when cast as a three-drop or four-drop or more. White and red doesn't have two-drops at a comparable power level. That's why BGx is still dominating with around 21% top placings in live tournaments last 2 months.
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
My post 20 hours back:
I have asked MTG Top 8 to include the SCG Open Modern events (where BGx have completely dominated the last weeks) that's so far lacking in their database, so I think the BGx percentage will actually increase when they are in. The percentages you are bringing up is MTGO, and that's not really interesting in terms of competitive play.
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
We classify the ~15 creature Kiki decks as UWR Kiki Control in the dataset. They aren't quite the UWR Midrange decks that run Geist and similar aggressive creatures in high quantities, and they also aren't UWR Control in its pure form. Hence, their own tag. The struggle that I was talking about in that thread was not how to classify them (that's obvious - UWR Kiki Control) but where we want to encourage discussion about them on this forum (less obvious); and we don't just want to make a new UWR Kiki Control thread, even if that is probably the easiest solution.
I bring up the UW Midrange deck because people say "Look at UWx Midrange! It's so high on that site why isn't it in Proven here?" That's because their UWx Midrange category includes decks that are not actually midrange, and not actually UWR Midrange. We have separate threads for UW Mirange and UWR Midrange, so one deck doing well wouldn't count towards the whole total.
If we look at just PTQs (59 events in total, see "BONUS: Metagame - PTQ Season" tab in spreadsheet), we see BGx at around 17-18%%
Jund: 8.5%
BG Rock: 8%
Junk: 1%
Which, incidentally, is about the same prevalence of BGx when DRS got banned (~17%). The difference now is that there are no obvious ban targets, because nothing is individually more broken than DRS, and that not everyone is in agreement that BGx is itself too strong.
To me this remains a card pool issue. BGx has by FAR the most powerful cards in the format; Decay/Bob/Lilly/TS/IoK/Goyf/Scooze. All of those are so strong as to see consistent Legacy play, let alone Modern play. Meanwhile, blue durdles around with Serum Vision, Mana Leak, and Cryptic Command. Aggro is stuck on its love affair with Affinity and Burn, decks that have much higher relative power levels than anything else that might compete (Merfolk sans Daze/Wasteland, Goblins sans Piledriver/Ringleader, etc.).
I'm of the opinion that we just need to wait and see. If BGx is indeed becoming too strong, then we are exactly where we were a year ago, and the time to act would be in January 2015 as it was in January 2014. So we have almost 5 months of events left before action is really needed. And who knows; maybe we get an unban come September and new awesome tools come KTK.
Edit: Someone defend Preordain's position on the banned list. I know its one of Forsythe's big no-no's but I truly don't see why. I don't see the format devolving into solely blue decks or twin domination with a preordain unban.
I don't think that Confidant over Goyf is as correct as you think it is. If I think my opponent has a removal spell I strongly prefer for them to use it on my Goyf, and there are other reasons to play it out as well. In any case, what about the draws where you don't have Confidant? I never said that people always play it out on turn 2, I said it was a common opening.. It is. I don't know why you are wasting your time making an argument against a position I never defended.
What don't you understand? Preordain makes combo decks *much* more consistent and strongly increases the power of blue decks. The more powerful a format is the strong cards like Preordain are, which is why they are often restricted in freaking Vintage. The only reason Brainstorm is legal in Legacy is that people like it and are okay with blue dominating everything.
I was talking about price there. I meant that most expensive cards other than Goyf aren't as much of a barrier to entry, and I phrased my comment awkwardly. I've been posting from my phone.
All you have to do is compare Preordain to Serum Visions. Being able to scry first and then draw makes all the difference in the world because it gives you full control over what you're going to be digging into. Serum Visions gives you a good chance of drawing into garbage that normally you could have scryed away first with Preordain.
Preordain was printed back when R&D greatly underestimated cheap handsculpting. That's why we've never seen it return to Standard after Ponder was in M12, because R&D re-evaluated the handsculpting spells and concluded that they were undercosted for the amount of consistency they provide to decks. I believe Gavin Verhey said this on his Twitter account a while back, but he said that Ponder and Preordain would cost at least 1U if they were designed today.
Look at the tools Rock decks have at their disposal. Its like the moderator said earlier, you see them just as much in modern as you do legacy. Blue cards? Some legacy decks run snapcaster or v clique but rarely together as they are considered to occupy the same spot on the curve. I say rarely not never, mind you. And thats about it. Delver is everywhere in legacy and tier 2 in modern. Remand, mana leak and cryptic command are embarrassing in legacy. Spell snare shows up occasionally. Spell pierce is more important to legacy than it is to modern. Everywhere in legacy and modern you see Bob goyf lilly and thoughtseize but Counterspell? That card thats almost unplayable now in legacy? Too good for modern! "Well modern isn't legacy and I dont want modern to just be legacy-lite" some people say. Well I ask why is it then that only BG can have legacy caliber cards and no one else can?
I'll agree that ponder shouldnt be in modern but preordain is FINE. It will give a boost to all the tempo and hard control decks sitting at tier 2 and will give twin and uwr a slight nudge. They wont overnight become the best decks because the Rock is already so miles beyond anything else they are playing. Will it shut out decks like hate bears or 8 rack? Maybe for a little while but wizards are pumping out new bears with each set (hey preordain might even make Spirit of the Lab good) and 8 racks.... listen preordain is fine.
And Im not continuing the goyf argument. No point. Id even say preordain has a better shot coming off than goyf has of getting on.
Legacy has much better tools to fight against combo decks. When you have cards like Force of Will and Wasteland to disrupt your opponent it is somewhat more acceptable for cards like Brainstorm, Ponder, and Preordain to be legal. That said, Brainstorm still dominates the format and warps everything else around its existence. Modern doesn't have the tools it needs to fight against combo decks that are super powerful and consistent, so it makes sense to keep Preordain and Ponder on the banned list. I would be okay with unbanning preordain if a playable free counter spell were printed in a Modern legal set; Disrupting Shoal just isn't going to cut it. I also think you underestimating just how good Twin is in the current format. I don't think that GBx variants are much better than Twin variants, and Preordain would be a huge upgrade for the deck. It's not just a matter of twin though, the existence of Preordain would enable combo decks forever.
Welcome to the world of different formats and not all of them being cookie cutters of each other. Kudos to Wotc for making Modern different from other formats!
Also I would say your evaluation of preordain is in the minority. AF (Wotc) doesnt want P or P in the format, many players understand how they would (either of them) would tilt the format. Not only towards blue, but consistency that can not be found in other colors.
The only reason why they have had this reaction to library manipulation and card-draw is because of Scars/Innistrad Standard Delver. If they weren't making cards like Snapcaster Mage and Delver of Secrets, they wouldn't have this problem.
Preordain isn't restricted in Vintage.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Also, Rock did get something banned: Deathrite Shaman. Also, while technically not "BG", Bloodbraid Elf was mostly just played in those BG decks (and was why Jund was basically the only BGx deck around before it got banned).
I have never heard of it.
If they 'reprint' Goyf as GG and */* it would have a new name and every deck could play 8 Goyfish cards. Not going to happen.
Bleh it'd be yet another fixed version of a good card, like the endless attempts to make a balanced bob. It'd be ignored and a five cent rare.
Sorry, I meant specifically that goyf would become a provisional card and not legally playable with it's printed stats. I'm talking about if Wizards would be able to change an already printed card.
Ah. I wouldn't like that. It's a slippery slope leading to a lot of good cards getting safe versions, like if pod was banned for yisan. This simply isn't a format I'd wanna play in. Fact is, yes BGx is very very good. But I think it's been nerfed enough and it's only a matter of time til power level rises for other color combinations. Think of it this way, it's a known issue so I doubt there will be many more strong BGx shell cards coming in the near future.
And while I'm glad Aaron Forscythe gave his opinion, I'm also glad he doesn't alone decide what is best for the format because 3 of the cards he named could help out the format. I'll also say, let's not forget that the last time Aaron Forscythe named a card that would never be unbanned (Bitterblossom) and the discussion that caused. And then less then 3 months later it was unbanned and...nothing happened in the format. No big shake up. No crazy Tier 0 deck. It was not slotted into B/G/x as many thought it might be. So not discussing cards simply because A.F. has deemed them unsafe would be a mistake, at least in my view.
Finally, on the topic of B/G/x, ktkenshinx is right. More bans would be a mistake for the format, even if B/G/x is once again over represented in the format. That would make 3 bans, trying to depower what amounts to a goodstuff.deck. If other colors had stronger cards, the format would even itself out color wise and B/G/x wouldn't be so played (theoretically). Also, can we please stop arguing over whether card X is not a good idea to unban because it can be slotted into B/G/x? Please? Because here's a news flash: every card in U, W, and R can be slotted in. It's not helping to create a productive discussion.
Edit: Also, Sheepz, they are actively watching B/G cards. The card based around Persephone that was supposed to be in BNG or JIN (I forget offhand) was B/G and was removed due to possible Modern implications. Also, Pharika was changed last second as she was seen as too strong, though if it was in Modern or Standard I don't know.
Yeah, seems bad, put like this. Better to just have things be banned, or not banned.
That is not correct. Both Fow and Brainstorm play a role, but Brainstorm is the more powerful card overall. And yes, it's usually only busted when you have a fetchland. Fortunately for Legacy players it's easy to run a bunch of fetchlands in that format, which means Brainstorm is pretty busted most of the time. It is the most powerful card in Legacy and defines the format.