Okay. So clearly you don't understand. First question; did you play modern at all while it was legal? Let's get this cleared up on WHY DRS completely and utterly destroyed modern.
The point is that Rhino, short of being countered, forces the oppoenent to two for one themselves in order to deal with it, and while I agree with Pizzap that most removal is a loss value vs Deathrite, bolt is not, and its the most played card.
Only if all of your removal is burn... Blue gets to beat rhinos outright thanks to manaleak and friends. Black has any number of removal spells that make rhinos look awful, dismember, victim of night, etc. White just exiles the dam thing. Green is the only color that can't one for one rhino easily, largely because green doesn't remove creatures. A goyf will do really good work at answering Rhino though. The only color that really can't answer a rhino easily is red, which sometimes has to 241 itself. Its a 4 drop, that's completely ok.
Why do you want Ancestral Vision unbanned?
I want it unbanned because it helps strategies that tend to suck in modern and was never even given a chance in modern. It's initially reasoning for banning is pretty lame as well. They basically just banned it because, at the time, it saw some play in legacy. Stupid really.
@harlonnowick: I have no beef with what you wrote, though I'm not sure whether its too bad or too good Dredge isnt a thing in modern.
Eh... It is what it is.
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
- Manite
Good lord this thread got insane in the past hours. It all started when that wretched SCG article was published, like it created some disturbance in the Modern force that affected players everywhere. Some of these suggestions blow my mind. Anyone who thinks that it's a good idea to ban DTT because it's "too powerful" and then unban DRS and Dread Return needs to look into a concept called "cognitive dissonance" ASAP.
Barring some real madness in the Wizards office, here are the banning scenarios for Monday. I'd bet $50 that no other ban scenarios are seriously on the table at this point.
-Ban TC
-Ban Pod and TC
-Ban nothing
Based on all the information we have, which is actually quite a lot relative to other time periods when we have tried to make this analysis, these are the only options. Everything else is either totally off-base (MANAMORPHOSE AGAIN??) or just supported by people who have a poor understanding of the metagame (anyone who thinks JA combo and Amulet combo are tier 1 needs to calm down). The only reason that "Ban Pod" is not there is because Wizards is not going to turn this format into a one-story TC town. The other three options are listed from most likely to least likely.
I am less certain about unbans. A number of cards are possible. From most to least likely, these are AV, GGT, Sword, and BBE. Everything else is just too crazy. I have no idea what will be unbanned, but my strong suspicion is that it will be at least 2 cards from that 4 card list.
EDIT: I will also say that of the more crazy unbans (Jitte, SFM, JTMS, etc.), the most likely of them is JTMS. This is the card that is likeliest to help control, an archetype that needs a lot of help right now. But that's a ballsy move that I don't expect from Wizards.
If JTMS was unbanned (don't bet on it), what blue deck wouldn't be packing multiples of them? I don't see it as blatently broken as stuff like Skullclamp, but I really feel some of you are seriously undervaluing how warp-level potent this card is. It's too many good things all at once, with minimal effort, and is surprisingly hard to get rid of. There are better ways to get cards into underrepresented deck styles (control), like AV and SotM.
Speaking of which, what would break Ancestral Vision? Fae? Esper/Grixis/Jeskai Control? Good luck finding a reasonable scenario where this does anything more than make a few barely-competitive decks have a bit more oomph way down the line. It basically rewards control players for playing the style properly: living until turn five and beyond. If your opponent can kill or seriously establish by then, though, it's done nothing. After that, it helps greatly, but guarantees nothing. It's not a critical mass card like Treasure Cruise, and it can't even be cast with Snapcaster Mage. It makes no sense whatsoever to leave AV banned.
Sword of the Meek seems riskier, but how would it change the environment? First off, let's look at what it does...next to nothing without Thopter Foundry, a UW/UB card. What's the best-case scenario here? Turn one, hold mana for Spell Snare or Spell Pierce, maybe cast Serum Visions or AV. Turn two, drop SotM. Turn three, here comes Thopter Foundry and possibly a Mox Opal (lol), netting you at most a 1/1 and a 2/3 flier, as well as 2 life, or you've countered a spell or something instead. Cool, seems potent.
Would decks without tutoring or control themes pack this pair of cards, though? As with AV, none of the current heavy hitters would consider them. Tezzerator, Agent of Bolas Control, and blue-based control would love to have the option. Unlike Splinter Twin, the SotM/TF combo:
-Only works as a specific pair (whereas Twin can use multiple creatures to win)
-Tries to take over the game, as opposed to win it on the spot
-Gets shut down by graveyard hate, artifact hate, sweepers (even at sorcery speed)
Torpor Orb and Pithing Needle/Phyrexian Revoker also work the same or better here. As a GR Tron player, I dread Twin, but I wouldn't mind Thopter/Sword at all. It wouldn't be defending other broken interactions like it was before with Dark Depths. Any decent aggro deck can still race or run through it. So, please, why is SotM still banned?
BBE and GGT I won't get into, as most here have made the same case I would have. Realistically, all four of these cards should come off of the banned list. They power up strategies that compete with the best ones currently, while breaking nothing open enough to be scared of.
Okay. So clearly you don't understand. First question; did you play modern at all while it was legal? Let's get this cleared up on WHY DRS completely and utterly destroyed modern.
Yes, lets get this cleared up! Yes, I played Modern while it was legal. But please explain to me how DRS "completely and utterly destroyed modern".
First, it made BGx decks T0 or T0.5 decks of the format. 30% share of the format.
Second, Decks like Burn were splashing for it.
It warped the meta into DRS decks, and decks trying to beat DRS decks.
Okay. So clearly you don't understand. First question; did you play modern at all while it was legal? Let's get this cleared up on WHY DRS completely and utterly destroyed modern.
Yes, lets get this cleared up! Yes, I played Modern while it was legal. But please explain to me how DRS "completely and utterly destroyed modern".
Ah okay. Well then did you follow competitive magic? It was months of absolute jund dominance at 25% metashare and often greater than 50% of the top 8. DRS was splashed into every deck that could possibly support it. Red had the only efficient answer to it in the game and that was only on parity for what it did. The card enabled ajundi for Pete's sake, color costs were a joke. I mean I don't think I need to sell you on the value of the card or the absolutely broken plays it consistently enabled such as turn 2 lili, so let's just focus on the warping effects. Grave based strategies just DIED and "the one mana planeswalker" was in huge amounts in every top 8.
If JTMS was unbanned (don't bet on it), what blue deck wouldn't be packing multiples of them?
Merfolk is a thing.... Admittedly, a tier 2 thing.
In all honesty though, a JTMS unban is exactly what the format doesn't need right now. At the moment, modern is unstable/in flux like no other time I have data on. Their are currently two decks that are struggling to become the new monster. We don't need to introduce a card like JTMS to the format as it could result in a complete reshuffling of the format. When this happens, we see things like delver skyrocket to 25% or burn to 15%. Formats that change rapidly, seem to have low diversity. What we need is patience and careful/safe bans and unbans to preserve diversity in modern. JTMS is in no way safe.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
- Manite
So you want AV and BBE in the same format? I have to ask...why? The ability to cascade into off a value card like BBE an AV sounds too degenerate for modern. Sound even more busted than Treausre Cruise, tbh.
Take this from the format with Shardless Agent as a cheaper cascader, Brainstorm&Jace to put Visions on top, and Force of Will as a counter that can be used in a deck with cascade. Ancestral Visions, Bloodbraid Elf or no, is a joke compared to Treasure Cruise.
If JTMS was unbanned (don't bet on it), what blue deck wouldn't be packing multiples of them?
Merfolk is a thing.... Admittedly, a tier 2 thing.
In all honesty though, a JTMS unban is exactly what the format doesn't need right now. At the moment, modern is unstable/in flux like no other time I have data on. Their are currently two decks that are struggling to become the new monster. We don't need to introduce a card like JTMS to the format as it could result in a complete reshuffling of the format. When this happens, we see things like delver skyrocket to 25% or burn to 15%. Formats that change rapidly, seem to have low diversity. What we need is patience and careful/safe bans and unbans to preserve diversity in modern. JTMS is in no way safe.
We also need control to be a part of the modern meta. Jace is card that can give a boost to an archetype that is EXTREMELY hurting right now. Also, why is he not safe? He is cmc 4, and a walker. Currently, no walker at that cmc is seeing serious Modern play. Second, he's not a turn 4 windmill slam if he's in your hand due to the nature of combo in the format. He is an engine for control in the late game, sure. But that is something control needs currently.
I frankly dont understand why everyone seems to be hating on me for saying DRS should be unbanned, while these same people are yelling for BBE to be unbanned.
Well, I'm of the opinion that neither BBE nor DS should be unbanned. I think the correct ban announcement for wizards is no bans and AV unban.
That said, I can understand their perspective because DS is alot more powerful than BBE. First, DS has no good answers. BBE has at least one good answer in electrolyze and likely more that I can't think of. Second, DS is almost always live. From turn 1 to the second to last turn in the game, DS is a good draw. By comparison, BBE is only good on T3-4 till the end of the game. So, in any given game, DS is live on an additional two turns at minimum. Third, BBE is harder to cast in that requires two colors of mana while DS only requires half of a color of mana.
I personally want DS banned because its bad design. It completely breaks the color pie of what black or green is supposed to be capable of. Black isn't supposed to ramp. Green isn't supposed to get direct damage. It also contributed to the dominance of BGx, a deck that might be the most boring thing I've ever seen. (opinion)
Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
- Manite
I frankly dont understand why everyone seems to be hating on me for saying DRS should be unbanned, while these same people are yelling for BBE to be unbanned.
Well, I'm of the opinion that neither BBE nor DS should be unbanned. I think the correct ban announcement for wizards is no bans and AV unban.
That said, I can understand their perspective because DS is alot more powerful than BBE. First, DS has no good answers. BBE has at least one good answer in electrolyze and likely more that I can't think of. Second, DS is almost always live. From turn 1 to the second to last turn in the game, DS is a good draw. By comparison, BBE is only good on T3-4 till the end of the game. So, in any given game, DS is live on an additional two turns at minimum. Third, BBE is harder to cast in that requires two colors of mana while DS only requires half of a color of mana.
I personally want DS unbanned because its bad design. It completely breaks the color pie of what black or green is supposed to be capable of. Black isn't supposed to ramp. Green isn't supposed to get direct damage. It also contributed to the dominance of BGx, a deck that might be the most boring thing I've ever seen. (opinion)
How does DRS have no good answers? Sure it might not have "efficient" answers, but lots of people run Pillar of Flame/Magma Spray/Forked Bolt which can easily answer it. Also DRS doesn't immediately effect the board the turn it hits unlike BBE.
Also I think you meant to say "I personally DONT want DRS unbanned"?
We also need control to be a part of the modern meta. Jace is card that can give a boost to an archetype that is EXTREMELY hurting right now. Also, why is he not safe? He is cmc 4, and a walker. Currently, no walker at that cmc is seeing serious Modern play. Second, he's not a turn 4 windmill slam if he's in your hand due to the nature of combo in the format. He is an engine for control in the late game, sure. But that is something control needs currently.
Fine, we can disagree on the power of Jace in modern, its unexplored territory at least.
I don't think we can disagree on the possible outcomes of a Jace unban though. I see only a few...
1. It does nothing. You are right in that Jace is completely safe. 4 mana is just too much.
2. It helps control without making control tier 0. The thing is, because Jace is so expensive, few people would be willing to buy him and play control meaning control makes up only about 1-5% of the format. We never get a large control population in modern. All the benefits of a diverse modern never come.
3. It makes control tier 0. If you aren't playing Jace, you lose. Jace skyrockets in price and even fewer people can afford to play control. People leave the format.
... Of those three possible results, only 1 provides a slight benefit to modern, one is a non result, the other wrecks modern. This is why I say a Jace unban isn't a good idea. It is relatively unsafe in that it is capable of wrecking modern, while never being capable of significantly helping modern.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
- Manite
So you want AV and BBE in the same format? I have to ask...why? The ability to cascade into off a value card like BBE an AV sounds too degenerate for modern. Sound even more busted than Treausre Cruise, tbh.
No, it isn't. I've explained why before, but here goes again.
Bloodbraid Elf into Ancestral Vision is very powerful. But it has a lot of problems with it.
1) It's really only good if you cascade into it. If you draw it naturally, it loses power considerably. This isn't Boom/Bust where the card can still be pretty useful if you draw it naturally; Ancestral Vision isn't good in the decks running Bloodbraid Elf unless you cascade into it. So it's only powerful if you get lucky and pretty awful otherwise.
2) It forces you into Blue. That means you're already into RUG. Here's the problem: If you want to be able to deal with combo decks, you want some disruption. And RUG, naturally, usually uses counterspells. But counterspells are HORRIBLE with cascade. Why do you think Bloodbraid Elf is basically never played in Blue decks? The bad synergy with counterspells. Discard is the preferred disruption for cascade, which is why Bloodbraid Elf was so good in Jund and why cascade is generally only played in Black decks. Shardless Agent decks in Legacy invariably go into Black for discard, because if they cascade into it they still get the disruption. So to get decent disruption, you have to go into a fourth color, Black, for your discard. So now you're in 4 colors, hurting your consistency, all just so you can occasionally cascade into Ancestral Vision, a card that's awful if you draw it normally.
3) Speaking of Shardless Agent, that's a great case in point as to why Ancestral Vision works so poorly with Bloodbraid Elf. Shardless Agent has the fortune of already being in Blue, so you require no extra splash for Ancestral Vision. This lets you add in Black for discard and be in the comfortable realm of 3 colors. Plus, Legacy has Force of Will, which will never be cascaded into even though the card can be cast on turn 1, so you are able to play counterspells. And it also has Brainstorm to throw away useless Ancestral Visions. None of this is true for Bloodbraid Elf.
BBE+AV might be a thing, but there's so many anti-synergies involved and the whole thing so based on luck to work that it's never going to be a particularly powerful thing.
Actually, BBE did that(make DRS decks into 30 percent of the meta).
Um, no. Bloodbraid Elf didn't do that; Deathrite Shaman did. All Bloodbraid Elf did was make sure that Jund was the best BGx deck. Deathrite Shaman made BGx too good, and Bloodbraid Elf was the thing that made almost all the BGx decks go into Red. The worst thing Bloodbraid Elf was really guilty of was reducing BGx diversity, but it wasn't the reason BGx decks were so dominant, as shown by how great BGx decks still were after BBE got banned.
I frankly dont understand why everyone seems to be hating on me for saying DRS should be unbanned, while these same people are yelling for BBE to be unbanned.
Because Bloodbraid Elf was the scapegoat for Deathrite Shaman. Deathrite Shaman was the correct ban back then, but they were overly focused on banning a card that was only in Jund that they passed on Deathrite Shaman in favor of Bloodbraid Elf, and then paid for their mistake by having to ban Deathrite Shaman later on anyway.
It's kind of like how way back in the day in Extended, they banned Hypnotic Specter. The actual problem was Dark Ritual, but Hypnotic Specter got misblamed and was banned, so they had to get rid of the Ritual later on anyway. Nowadays Hypnotic Specter is seen as powerful but still reasonable and has been brought back in core sets, while Dark Ritual has correctly been identified as an overly powerful card that you're never going to see in a Standard set again.
Bloodbraid Elf would ultimately benefit Jund, a deck that's basically fallen off the map. Keep in mind that Bloodbraid Elf was explicitly banned to hit Jund, so if Jund is no longer overpowered (and in fact is outright underpowered), the reason no longer applies.
How does DRS have no good answers? Sure it might not have "efficient" answers, but lots of people run Pillar of Flame/Magma Spray/Forked Bolt which can easily answer it. Also DRS doesn't immediately effect the board the turn it hits unlike BBE.
I define a good answer as an efficient answer. Pillar/spray/bolt all at best will barely answer DRS. Most of the time the opponent will be able to activate at least one of DS's abilities meaning your answers are no longer efficient.
I agree that DS doesn't have board impact. You may note that I stated that DS is a good draw on every turn of the game except for the last one while BBE is a good draw on every turn of the game except the first three. Whether or not a card has board impact isn't particularly important for my analysis.
Also I think you meant to say "I personally DONT want DRS unbanned"?
I did mean that. My post has since been fixed.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
- Manite
I frankly dont understand why everyone seems to be hating on me for saying DRS should be unbanned, while these same people are yelling for BBE to be unbanned.
Well, I'm of the opinion that neither BBE nor DS should be unbanned. I think the correct ban announcement for wizards is no bans and AV unban.
That said, I can understand their perspective because DS is alot more powerful than BBE. First, DS has no good answers. BBE has at least one good answer in electrolyze and likely more that I can't think of. Second, DS is almost always live. From turn 1 to the second to last turn in the game, DS is a good draw. By comparison, BBE is only good on T3-4 till the end of the game. So, in any given game, DS is live on an additional two turns at minimum. Third, BBE is harder to cast in that requires two colors of mana while DS only requires half of a color of mana.
I personally want DS unbanned because its bad design. It completely breaks the color pie of what black or green is supposed to be capable of. Black isn't supposed to ramp. Green isn't supposed to get direct damage. It also contributed to the dominance of BGx, a deck that might be the most boring thing I've ever seen. (opinion)
How does DRS have no good answers? Sure it might not have "efficient" answers, but lots of people run Pillar of Flame/Magma Spray/Forked Bolt which can easily answer it. Also DRS doesn't immediately effect the board the turn it hits unlike BBE.
Also I think you meant to say "I personally DONT want DRS unbanned"?
Part of being "good" is being efficient. Otherwise, every card in existence has a "good answer." Yes BBE immediately affects the board. Also, it costs four mana so doing more than a one drop isn't very revolutionary.
Ah okay. Well then did you follow competitive magic? It was months of absolute jund dominance at 25% metashare and often greater than 50% of the top 8.
Yes, I followed competeive magic, and if you did too, you would know that Jund dominance had more to do with BBE than DRS. I honestly doubt those stats are true, as, if the deck made 50 percent top8 appearance more than 25 eprcent of the meta would be playing the deck. GP top 8s vary greatly from location to location. Also, it isnt clear to me if you're talkinng about Jund post or pre BBE, but I can tell you, JUnd was much more played with BBE than B/G/x decks were with DRS but without BBE.
DRS was splashed into every deck that could possibly support it.
Same is true for Siege Rhino.
Red had the only efficient answer to it in the game and that was only on parity for what it did.
Yeah, because, you know, noone should play red.
The card enabled ajundi for Pete's sake, color costs were a joke.
So having a four-color deck is a bad thing? Color costs were far from being a "joke" as the deck struggled with its mana base a great deal.
I mean I don't think I need to sell you on the value of the card or the absolutely broken plays it consistently enabled such as turn 2 lili, so let's just focus on the warping effects. Grave based strategies just DIED and "the one mana planeswalker" was in huge amounts in every top 8.
Are gy based strategies doing better now? Also T2 Lili is a fine play, but not as busted as some people make it out to be, I saw Fabrizio Anteri demolish the Jund player in Antwerp despite a T2 Lili that game.
1. Jund was still dominate post BBE ban which is why DRS had to be banned too. Guess what? After the banning it's metashare went way down cause it stopped being absolutely broken.
2. What splashes for siege rhino!? Pod and junk play it which honestly makes perfect sense and is totally acceptable. This isn't affinity splashing green for goyf.
3. I guess this is subjective but yes, viable four color midrange goodstuff decks are indeed a bad thing. It wipes away the whole point of the color pie.
4. Actually living end made a comeback post DRS banning, and snap was certainly better (not anymore though cause delve)
5. T2 lili off a DRS was PROBABLY the strongest t2 play in modern.
At this point I can see you've seen enough of the format that either you're incredibly biased, or straight up trolling. Either way you've seen what it does and can't way DRS wasn't given a fair shot at being reasonable in modern. It made jund a tier 0 deck, no question, and cherry picking one of the few tournaments jund WASNT dominating doesn't change that.
How does DRS have no good answers? Sure it might not have "efficient" answers, but lots of people run Pillar of Flame/Magma Spray/Forked Bolt which can easily answer it. Also DRS doesn't immediately effect the board the turn it hits unlike BBE.
I define a good answer as an efficient answer. Pillar/spray/bolt all at best will barely answer DRS. Most of the time the opponent will be able to activate at least one of DS's abilities meaning your answers are no longer efficient.
I agree that DS doesn't have board impact. You may note that I stated that DS is a good draw on every turn of the game except for the last one while BBE is a good draw on every turn of the game except the first three. Whether or not a card has board impact isn't particularly important for my analysis.
I'm not quite sure what you mean by Pillar/Spray/Bolt will at best barely answer DRS when DRS is a 1/2. Using a Pillar/Spray and even a Bolt is really as efficient as you can get for 1 mana removal. And no, the opponent will not be able to activate one of DRS' abilities before you can remove him unless you don't have removal but that is an irrelevant argument. Suntail Hawk can win the game in 20 turns if someone doesn't have removal but that is hardly a game winning creature. DRS is only a good draw if you can guarantee that the opponent has no removal otherwise you just spend 1 mana to have your guy bolted.
First, it made BGx decks T0 or T0.5 decks of the format. 30% share of the format.
Second, Decks like Burn were splashing for it.
It warped the meta into DRS decks, and decks trying to beat DRS decks.
Actually, BBE did that(make DRS decks into 30 percent of the meta). Speaking of Modern post BBE, I remember the top 8 of GP Prague 2014. 4 DRS decks, three Snapcatser Mage decks, only one DRS deck made it as far as top 4. All the others lost in the quarterfinals. Every time a DRS deck lost, it lost to a Snapcaster deck, and everytime and Snapcatser deck lost, it was also to another Snapcaster deck. This is only one tounrment of course, but its interesting to note that while DRS supposedly hoses Snapcaster, it didnt here. Perhaps bolt is largely responsible for that, but like I already said, bolt is the most played card, so why worry about DRS?
I frankly dont understand why everyone seems to be hating on me for saying DRS should be unbanned, while these same people are yelling for BBE to be unbanned.
You were not paying attention, banning BBE increased the diversity of BGx deck. The banning of DRS brought BGx decks ack to the pack.
I personally want DS banned because its bad design. It completely breaks the color pie of what black or green is supposed to be capable of. Black isn't supposed to ramp. Green isn't supposed to get direct damage. It also contributed to the dominance of BGx, a deck that might be the most boring thing I've ever seen. (opinion)
Green doesn't get direct damage life loss from Deathrite Shaman - you do have to pay black to actually use that effect.
The most color-busted thing about Deathrite Shaman is being able to T1 Swamp, DRS into T2 Lily off a fetch into another Swamp.
Even then people tended to add green to the same deck because the G ability was useful against enemy Scavenging Oozes and the life gain was relevant Vs burn.
Plus Verdant Catacombs was half of the only available Swamp-based fetchlands out at the time, so Deathrite Shaman was almost assuredly in a BG deck anyway.
As such I think DRS is a beautifully designed card.
DRS has plenty of good answers, plenty more than many other cards people want to see unbanned.
Keep in mind DRS's populary peaked when the legendary rule change allowed people to put Liliana of the Veil from 2-of to 4-ofs.
That, and people are exaggerating when they say going BBE into DRS was broken.
It put the breaks on your pressure because a 1/2 that has to wait a turn to be useful isn't as good as cascading into a Lily or Abrupt Decay.
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
How does DRS have no good answers? Sure it might not have "efficient" answers, but lots of people run Pillar of Flame/Magma Spray/Forked Bolt which can easily answer it. Also DRS doesn't immediately effect the board the turn it hits unlike BBE.
I define a good answer as an efficient answer. Pillar/spray/bolt all at best will barely answer DRS. Most of the time the opponent will be able to activate at least one of DS's abilities meaning your answers are no longer efficient.
I agree that DS doesn't have board impact. You may note that I stated that DS is a good draw on every turn of the game except for the last one while BBE is a good draw on every turn of the game except the first three. Whether or not a card has board impact isn't particularly important for my analysis.
I'm not quite sure what you mean by Pillar/Spray/Bolt will at best barely answer DRS when DRS is a 1/2. Using a Pillar/Spray and even a Bolt is really as efficient as you can get for 1 mana removal. And no, the opponent will not be able to activate one of DRS' abilities before you can remove him unless you don't have removal but that is an irrelevant argument. Suntail Hawk can win the game in 20 turns if someone doesn't have removal but that is hardly a game winning creature. DRS is only a good draw if you can guarantee that the opponent has no removal otherwise you just spend 1 mana to have your guy bolted.
you're definition of a bad draw is different from mine. This sounds a lot like you either make massive gains from DRS for 1 mana, or you traded one mana and one card for one mana and one card so no tempo loss. Drs is zero risk, high potential gain.
I'm not quite sure what you mean by Pillar/Spray/Bolt will at best barely answer DRS when DRS is a 1/2. Using a Pillar/Spray and even a Bolt is really as efficient as you can get for 1 mana removal. And no, the opponent will not be able to activate one of DRS' abilities before you can remove him unless you don't have removal but that is an irrelevant argument.
I mean that if you wait even a turn to remove DRS, the opponent beat you in the value match.
DRS is only a good draw if you can guarantee that the opponent has no removal otherwise you just spend 1 mana to have your guy bolted.
If a spend 1 mana and a card and its answered by my opponent spending 1 mana and a card, then that card is a relatively good draw. (in a bubble obviously)
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Every time I read a comment about "Well if this card had card draw/trample/haste/indestructible/hexproof/life gain...", I think "You're missing the point." They're armchair developer comments that fail to take into account the card's role in the greater Limited and Standard environment. No, it may not be as good as whatever card you're comparing it to. There's a reason for that. Not every burn spell is Lightning Bolt, nor does it need to be or should be.
- Manite
Ah okay. Well then did you follow competitive magic? It was months of absolute jund dominance at 25% metashare and often greater than 50% of the top 8.
Yes, I followed competeive magic, and if you did too, you would know that Jund dominance had more to do with BBE than DRS. I honestly doubt those stats are true, as, if the deck made 50 percent top8 appearance more than 25 eprcent of the meta would be playing the deck. GP top 8s vary greatly from location to location. Also, it isnt clear to me if you're talkinng about Jund post or pre BBE, but I can tell you, JUnd was much more played with BBE than B/G/x decks were with DRS but without BBE.
No it wasn't because of BBE. BBE is a 4-drop that is bad against combo, bad when you need a specific answer, and isn't that much better than other 4 mana alternatives. DRS was an effect that is great from turn 1 onwards, stifled graveyard decks, and was irreplacable in BGx. DRS was the problem card that should have been banned.
DRS was splashed into every deck that could possibly support it.
Same is true for Siege Rhino.
The difference is that only 2 decks can support Rhino. Every BGx variant, 4C Gifts, all Pod decks, and Burn all ran DRS.
Red had the only efficient answer to it in the game and that was only on parity for what it did.
Yeah, because, you know, noone should play red.
Well, red shouldn't be the only color with a maindeckable answer to it.
The card enabled ajundi for Pete's sake, color costs were a joke.
So having a four-color deck is a bad thing? Color costs were far from being a "joke" as the deck struggled with its mana base a great deal.
The deck did not struggle with it. The deck flat-out ignored the fact that it was playing 4 colors with Lilianas because DRS fixed its mana.
I mean I don't think I need to sell you on the value of the card or the absolutely broken plays it consistently enabled such as turn 2 lili, so let's just focus on the warping effects. Grave based strategies just DIED and "the one mana planeswalker" was in huge amounts in every top 8.
Are gy based strategies doing better now? Also T2 Lili is a fine play, but not as busted as some people make it out to be, I saw Fabrizio Anteri demolish the Jund player in Antwerp despite a T2 Lili that game.
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Graveyard decks are doing better now. Snapcaster Mage is much better, Gifts Ungiven is a viable sideboard plan, Delve is doing great, and Storm isn't that bad.
No blue deck currently on T1 status would want to run Jace.
American Control may regain some of it's T1.5 status with two Jaces but they're still missing a finisher.
BUG control is a possibility, and that deck would be the most expensive in the format with 4 Tarmogoyf, 2-4 Liliana of the Veil, and 2 Jace, but definately not a top contender without DRS. Might be on the lower levels of T1.
Other than that, Jace comes naked into Modern, he doesn't fit anywhere and would need a lot of deck tailoring to make him actually necessary to compete.
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Only if all of your removal is burn... Blue gets to beat rhinos outright thanks to manaleak and friends. Black has any number of removal spells that make rhinos look awful, dismember, victim of night, etc. White just exiles the dam thing. Green is the only color that can't one for one rhino easily, largely because green doesn't remove creatures. A goyf will do really good work at answering Rhino though. The only color that really can't answer a rhino easily is red, which sometimes has to 241 itself. Its a 4 drop, that's completely ok.
I want it unbanned because it helps strategies that tend to suck in modern and was never even given a chance in modern. It's initially reasoning for banning is pretty lame as well. They basically just banned it because, at the time, it saw some play in legacy. Stupid really.
Eh... It is what it is.
- Manite
Barring some real madness in the Wizards office, here are the banning scenarios for Monday. I'd bet $50 that no other ban scenarios are seriously on the table at this point.
-Ban TC
-Ban Pod and TC
-Ban nothing
Based on all the information we have, which is actually quite a lot relative to other time periods when we have tried to make this analysis, these are the only options. Everything else is either totally off-base (MANAMORPHOSE AGAIN??) or just supported by people who have a poor understanding of the metagame (anyone who thinks JA combo and Amulet combo are tier 1 needs to calm down). The only reason that "Ban Pod" is not there is because Wizards is not going to turn this format into a one-story TC town. The other three options are listed from most likely to least likely.
I am less certain about unbans. A number of cards are possible. From most to least likely, these are AV, GGT, Sword, and BBE. Everything else is just too crazy. I have no idea what will be unbanned, but my strong suspicion is that it will be at least 2 cards from that 4 card list.
EDIT: I will also say that of the more crazy unbans (Jitte, SFM, JTMS, etc.), the most likely of them is JTMS. This is the card that is likeliest to help control, an archetype that needs a lot of help right now. But that's a ballsy move that I don't expect from Wizards.
Speaking of which, what would break Ancestral Vision? Fae? Esper/Grixis/Jeskai Control? Good luck finding a reasonable scenario where this does anything more than make a few barely-competitive decks have a bit more oomph way down the line. It basically rewards control players for playing the style properly: living until turn five and beyond. If your opponent can kill or seriously establish by then, though, it's done nothing. After that, it helps greatly, but guarantees nothing. It's not a critical mass card like Treasure Cruise, and it can't even be cast with Snapcaster Mage. It makes no sense whatsoever to leave AV banned.
Sword of the Meek seems riskier, but how would it change the environment? First off, let's look at what it does...next to nothing without Thopter Foundry, a UW/UB card. What's the best-case scenario here? Turn one, hold mana for Spell Snare or Spell Pierce, maybe cast Serum Visions or AV. Turn two, drop SotM. Turn three, here comes Thopter Foundry and possibly a Mox Opal (lol), netting you at most a 1/1 and a 2/3 flier, as well as 2 life, or you've countered a spell or something instead. Cool, seems potent.
Would decks without tutoring or control themes pack this pair of cards, though? As with AV, none of the current heavy hitters would consider them. Tezzerator, Agent of Bolas Control, and blue-based control would love to have the option. Unlike Splinter Twin, the SotM/TF combo:
-Only works as a specific pair (whereas Twin can use multiple creatures to win)
-Tries to take over the game, as opposed to win it on the spot
-Gets shut down by graveyard hate, artifact hate, sweepers (even at sorcery speed)
Torpor Orb and Pithing Needle/Phyrexian Revoker also work the same or better here. As a GR Tron player, I dread Twin, but I wouldn't mind Thopter/Sword at all. It wouldn't be defending other broken interactions like it was before with Dark Depths. Any decent aggro deck can still race or run through it. So, please, why is SotM still banned?
BBE and GGT I won't get into, as most here have made the same case I would have. Realistically, all four of these cards should come off of the banned list. They power up strategies that compete with the best ones currently, while breaking nothing open enough to be scared of.
First, it made BGx decks T0 or T0.5 decks of the format. 30% share of the format.
Second, Decks like Burn were splashing for it.
It warped the meta into DRS decks, and decks trying to beat DRS decks.
Ah okay. Well then did you follow competitive magic? It was months of absolute jund dominance at 25% metashare and often greater than 50% of the top 8. DRS was splashed into every deck that could possibly support it. Red had the only efficient answer to it in the game and that was only on parity for what it did. The card enabled ajundi for Pete's sake, color costs were a joke. I mean I don't think I need to sell you on the value of the card or the absolutely broken plays it consistently enabled such as turn 2 lili, so let's just focus on the warping effects. Grave based strategies just DIED and "the one mana planeswalker" was in huge amounts in every top 8.
Merfolk is a thing.... Admittedly, a tier 2 thing.
In all honesty though, a JTMS unban is exactly what the format doesn't need right now. At the moment, modern is unstable/in flux like no other time I have data on. Their are currently two decks that are struggling to become the new monster. We don't need to introduce a card like JTMS to the format as it could result in a complete reshuffling of the format. When this happens, we see things like delver skyrocket to 25% or burn to 15%. Formats that change rapidly, seem to have low diversity. What we need is patience and careful/safe bans and unbans to preserve diversity in modern. JTMS is in no way safe.
- Manite
We also need control to be a part of the modern meta. Jace is card that can give a boost to an archetype that is EXTREMELY hurting right now. Also, why is he not safe? He is cmc 4, and a walker. Currently, no walker at that cmc is seeing serious Modern play. Second, he's not a turn 4 windmill slam if he's in your hand due to the nature of combo in the format. He is an engine for control in the late game, sure. But that is something control needs currently.
I am going to go out on a limb and say Delver probably would not play it unless they were going to play a much more controlling version of the list.
Well, I'm of the opinion that neither BBE nor DS should be unbanned. I think the correct ban announcement for wizards is no bans and AV unban.
That said, I can understand their perspective because DS is alot more powerful than BBE. First, DS has no good answers. BBE has at least one good answer in electrolyze and likely more that I can't think of. Second, DS is almost always live. From turn 1 to the second to last turn in the game, DS is a good draw. By comparison, BBE is only good on T3-4 till the end of the game. So, in any given game, DS is live on an additional two turns at minimum. Third, BBE is harder to cast in that requires two colors of mana while DS only requires half of a color of mana.
I personally want DS banned because its bad design. It completely breaks the color pie of what black or green is supposed to be capable of. Black isn't supposed to ramp. Green isn't supposed to get direct damage. It also contributed to the dominance of BGx, a deck that might be the most boring thing I've ever seen. (opinion)
- Manite
How does DRS have no good answers? Sure it might not have "efficient" answers, but lots of people run Pillar of Flame/Magma Spray/Forked Bolt which can easily answer it. Also DRS doesn't immediately effect the board the turn it hits unlike BBE.
Also I think you meant to say "I personally DONT want DRS unbanned"?
Fine, we can disagree on the power of Jace in modern, its unexplored territory at least.
I don't think we can disagree on the possible outcomes of a Jace unban though. I see only a few...
1. It does nothing. You are right in that Jace is completely safe. 4 mana is just too much.
2. It helps control without making control tier 0. The thing is, because Jace is so expensive, few people would be willing to buy him and play control meaning control makes up only about 1-5% of the format. We never get a large control population in modern. All the benefits of a diverse modern never come.
3. It makes control tier 0. If you aren't playing Jace, you lose. Jace skyrockets in price and even fewer people can afford to play control. People leave the format.
... Of those three possible results, only 1 provides a slight benefit to modern, one is a non result, the other wrecks modern. This is why I say a Jace unban isn't a good idea. It is relatively unsafe in that it is capable of wrecking modern, while never being capable of significantly helping modern.
- Manite
Bloodbraid Elf into Ancestral Vision is very powerful. But it has a lot of problems with it.
1) It's really only good if you cascade into it. If you draw it naturally, it loses power considerably. This isn't Boom/Bust where the card can still be pretty useful if you draw it naturally; Ancestral Vision isn't good in the decks running Bloodbraid Elf unless you cascade into it. So it's only powerful if you get lucky and pretty awful otherwise.
2) It forces you into Blue. That means you're already into RUG. Here's the problem: If you want to be able to deal with combo decks, you want some disruption. And RUG, naturally, usually uses counterspells. But counterspells are HORRIBLE with cascade. Why do you think Bloodbraid Elf is basically never played in Blue decks? The bad synergy with counterspells. Discard is the preferred disruption for cascade, which is why Bloodbraid Elf was so good in Jund and why cascade is generally only played in Black decks. Shardless Agent decks in Legacy invariably go into Black for discard, because if they cascade into it they still get the disruption. So to get decent disruption, you have to go into a fourth color, Black, for your discard. So now you're in 4 colors, hurting your consistency, all just so you can occasionally cascade into Ancestral Vision, a card that's awful if you draw it normally.
3) Speaking of Shardless Agent, that's a great case in point as to why Ancestral Vision works so poorly with Bloodbraid Elf. Shardless Agent has the fortune of already being in Blue, so you require no extra splash for Ancestral Vision. This lets you add in Black for discard and be in the comfortable realm of 3 colors. Plus, Legacy has Force of Will, which will never be cascaded into even though the card can be cast on turn 1, so you are able to play counterspells. And it also has Brainstorm to throw away useless Ancestral Visions. None of this is true for Bloodbraid Elf.
BBE+AV might be a thing, but there's so many anti-synergies involved and the whole thing so based on luck to work that it's never going to be a particularly powerful thing.Um, no. Bloodbraid Elf didn't do that; Deathrite Shaman did. All Bloodbraid Elf did was make sure that Jund was the best BGx deck. Deathrite Shaman made BGx too good, and Bloodbraid Elf was the thing that made almost all the BGx decks go into Red. The worst thing Bloodbraid Elf was really guilty of was reducing BGx diversity, but it wasn't the reason BGx decks were so dominant, as shown by how great BGx decks still were after BBE got banned.
Because Bloodbraid Elf was the scapegoat for Deathrite Shaman. Deathrite Shaman was the correct ban back then, but they were overly focused on banning a card that was only in Jund that they passed on Deathrite Shaman in favor of Bloodbraid Elf, and then paid for their mistake by having to ban Deathrite Shaman later on anyway.
It's kind of like how way back in the day in Extended, they banned Hypnotic Specter. The actual problem was Dark Ritual, but Hypnotic Specter got misblamed and was banned, so they had to get rid of the Ritual later on anyway. Nowadays Hypnotic Specter is seen as powerful but still reasonable and has been brought back in core sets, while Dark Ritual has correctly been identified as an overly powerful card that you're never going to see in a Standard set again.
Bloodbraid Elf would ultimately benefit Jund, a deck that's basically fallen off the map. Keep in mind that Bloodbraid Elf was explicitly banned to hit Jund, so if Jund is no longer overpowered (and in fact is outright underpowered), the reason no longer applies.
I define a good answer as an efficient answer. Pillar/spray/bolt all at best will barely answer DRS. Most of the time the opponent will be able to activate at least one of DS's abilities meaning your answers are no longer efficient.
I agree that DS doesn't have board impact. You may note that I stated that DS is a good draw on every turn of the game except for the last one while BBE is a good draw on every turn of the game except the first three. Whether or not a card has board impact isn't particularly important for my analysis.
I did mean that. My post has since been fixed.
- Manite
1. Jund was still dominate post BBE ban which is why DRS had to be banned too. Guess what? After the banning it's metashare went way down cause it stopped being absolutely broken.
2. What splashes for siege rhino!? Pod and junk play it which honestly makes perfect sense and is totally acceptable. This isn't affinity splashing green for goyf.
3. I guess this is subjective but yes, viable four color midrange goodstuff decks are indeed a bad thing. It wipes away the whole point of the color pie.
4. Actually living end made a comeback post DRS banning, and snap was certainly better (not anymore though cause delve)
5. T2 lili off a DRS was PROBABLY the strongest t2 play in modern.
At this point I can see you've seen enough of the format that either you're incredibly biased, or straight up trolling. Either way you've seen what it does and can't way DRS wasn't given a fair shot at being reasonable in modern. It made jund a tier 0 deck, no question, and cherry picking one of the few tournaments jund WASNT dominating doesn't change that.
I'm not quite sure what you mean by Pillar/Spray/Bolt will at best barely answer DRS when DRS is a 1/2. Using a Pillar/Spray and even a Bolt is really as efficient as you can get for 1 mana removal. And no, the opponent will not be able to activate one of DRS' abilities before you can remove him unless you don't have removal but that is an irrelevant argument. Suntail Hawk can win the game in 20 turns if someone doesn't have removal but that is hardly a game winning creature. DRS is only a good draw if you can guarantee that the opponent has no removal otherwise you just spend 1 mana to have your guy bolted.
You were not paying attention, banning BBE increased the diversity of BGx deck. The banning of DRS brought BGx decks ack to the pack.
Green doesn't get
direct damagelife loss from Deathrite Shaman - you do have to pay black to actually use that effect.The most color-busted thing about Deathrite Shaman is being able to T1 Swamp, DRS into T2 Lily off a fetch into another Swamp.
Even then people tended to add green to the same deck because the G ability was useful against enemy Scavenging Oozes and the life gain was relevant Vs burn.
Plus Verdant Catacombs was half of the only available Swamp-based fetchlands out at the time, so Deathrite Shaman was almost assuredly in a BG deck anyway.
As such I think DRS is a beautifully designed card.
DRS has plenty of good answers, plenty more than many other cards people want to see unbanned.
Keep in mind DRS's populary peaked when the legendary rule change allowed people to put Liliana of the Veil from 2-of to 4-ofs.
That, and people are exaggerating when they say going BBE into DRS was broken.
It put the breaks on your pressure because a 1/2 that has to wait a turn to be useful isn't as good as cascading into a Lily or Abrupt Decay.
"OH GOD MY BRAIN IS EXPLOADING AT HOW BAD THE ART IS ON MY OWN CARD"
-A friend's first impression of Ancestral Recall
10/10, I tapped.
I mean that if you wait even a turn to remove DRS, the opponent beat you in the value match.
If a spend 1 mana and a card and its answered by my opponent spending 1 mana and a card, then that card is a relatively good draw. (in a bubble obviously)
- Manite
No it wasn't because of BBE. BBE is a 4-drop that is bad against combo, bad when you need a specific answer, and isn't that much better than other 4 mana alternatives. DRS was an effect that is great from turn 1 onwards, stifled graveyard decks, and was irreplacable in BGx. DRS was the problem card that should have been banned.
The difference is that only 2 decks can support Rhino. Every BGx variant, 4C Gifts, all Pod decks, and Burn all ran DRS.
Well, red shouldn't be the only color with a maindeckable answer to it.
The deck did not struggle with it. The deck flat-out ignored the fact that it was playing 4 colors with Lilianas because DRS fixed its mana.
Are gy based strategies doing better now? Also T2 Lili is a fine play, but not as busted as some people make it out to be, I saw Fabrizio Anteri demolish the Jund player in Antwerp despite a T2 Lili that game.
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Graveyard decks are doing better now. Snapcaster Mage is much better, Gifts Ungiven is a viable sideboard plan, Delve is doing great, and Storm isn't that bad.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
American Control may regain some of it's T1.5 status with two Jaces but they're still missing a finisher.
BUG control is a possibility, and that deck would be the most expensive in the format with 4 Tarmogoyf, 2-4 Liliana of the Veil, and 2 Jace, but definately not a top contender without DRS. Might be on the lower levels of T1.
Other than that, Jace comes naked into Modern, he doesn't fit anywhere and would need a lot of deck tailoring to make him actually necessary to compete.