I am working on a naya deck (mainly a zoo variant, but more control than aggro), and am working on the mana base. I know the meta is quite fast, and that the life lost to fetches and shocks may be much against aggro for a one turn slower modern deck. My goal is to stabilize by turn 4 against aggro.
Or
4x Rootbound Crag
4x Sunpetal Grove
4x Clifftop Retreat
3x Jungle Shrine
3x Plains, Forest, Plains
Now if I get a basic and nonbasic in my opening hand, the non-basic will be untapped T2. What percentage of games can I expect a basic turn 1?
With the shocks/fetches I can guarantee a T1/T2 untap at the cost of at least 4 life. Is the life loss worth it in an aggro meta? I will be running knight of the reliquary to also help mana fixing.
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All foil Invasion Draft Set (1 Rare, 3 Uncommon, 6 Common) California DCI Level 2 Judge
How do you plan to turn on your Loam Lions, Kird Apes and Steppe Lynxes quickly and reliably without shocks and fetches? Don't worry about the life loss. Worry about speed. You have Lightning Helix to offset your life loss, anyway.
If yes, then fetches + shocks are better. If not, then you can do whatever the hell you want. But most naya decks use the above-mentioned cards so they like to use the dual lands.
Yeah, we really need to know whats in your deck to even begin to answer this.
A "control" naya just seems like it would be dead vs the myriad of combo decks in modern.
If the cards did make it work somehow, I could see biasing away from shocklands towards core-duals.
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I support WotC's goal of shaping Modern in favor of diversity.
I ran a thought experiment on my blog Modern in a Nuclear Wasteland
of an extreme case of banning 20 more cards to make sure they get everything, then scaling back where appropriate. WotC seems to be on a slowly build up approach. Both ways probably reach similar end points.
The post Gatecrash metagame is proving to be closer to the endpoint than I estimated, so its very possible that few (if any) more cards need to be banned.
There are several reasons fetches/shocks are run over M10 duals.
1. Interaction with Goyf, KotR, Loam Lion, Kird Ape, and Steppe Lynx
As soon as you crack a fetch, you can play Goyf as a 1/2. Every time you crack a fetch, KotR gets pumped up. The shocklands have the basic land types, which give the +1/+2 to your Lion/Ape or +2/+2 to the Lynx. Without Goyf, KotR, and Lion/Ape/Lynx, you really don't have a zoo any more.
2. Interaction with tribal flames
It's easy to hit for 3/4 damage early in the game with tribal flames running shocklands and fetches. It will take longer without them. If you don't run tribal flames it isn't a big deal but more and more zoo decks are running it.
3. Mana Fixing
If you run fetches and shocks, you can choose which dual land to grab when you need it. This will set up your plays 2-3 turns ahead of time so you never have to worry about having the right mana for your hand.
4. Speed
The deck can hit hard and fast because of turn 1-3 mana fixing. By turn 3, you should have your Lions/Apes pumped up and be able to play a KotR as a 4/4 or 5/5.
Out of the 13 zoo decks that finished with 15 points or better at Worlds Modern, there wasn't a single M10 or Innistrad dual. Each deck contained at least 8 fetches and at least 6-8 shocks. I wonder why? The bottom line is, there are way too many key cards in this format that rely on lands having the basic land subtypes which M10/Innistrad lands don't have.
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Now the lands:
I was considering the following land base:
4x Rootbound Crag
4x Sunpetal Grove
4x Clifftop Retreats
4x Each, Plains, Forest, Mountains
Or
4x Rootbound Crag
4x Sunpetal Grove
4x Clifftop Retreat
3x Jungle Shrine
3x Plains, Forest, Plains
Now if I get a basic and nonbasic in my opening hand, the non-basic will be untapped T2. What percentage of games can I expect a basic turn 1?
With the shocks/fetches I can guarantee a T1/T2 untap at the cost of at least 4 life. Is the life loss worth it in an aggro meta? I will be running knight of the reliquary to also help mana fixing.
California DCI Level 2 Judge
CG
If yes, then fetches + shocks are better. If not, then you can do whatever the hell you want. But most naya decks use the above-mentioned cards so they like to use the dual lands.
A "control" naya just seems like it would be dead vs the myriad of combo decks in modern.
If the cards did make it work somehow, I could see biasing away from shocklands towards core-duals.
I ran a thought experiment on my blog
Modern in a Nuclear Wasteland
of an extreme case of banning 20 more cards to make sure they get everything, then scaling back where appropriate. WotC seems to be on a slowly build up approach. Both ways probably reach similar end points.
The post Gatecrash metagame is proving to be closer to the endpoint than I estimated, so its very possible that few (if any) more cards need to be banned.
1. Interaction with Goyf, KotR, Loam Lion, Kird Ape, and Steppe Lynx
As soon as you crack a fetch, you can play Goyf as a 1/2. Every time you crack a fetch, KotR gets pumped up. The shocklands have the basic land types, which give the +1/+2 to your Lion/Ape or +2/+2 to the Lynx. Without Goyf, KotR, and Lion/Ape/Lynx, you really don't have a zoo any more.
2. Interaction with tribal flames
It's easy to hit for 3/4 damage early in the game with tribal flames running shocklands and fetches. It will take longer without them. If you don't run tribal flames it isn't a big deal but more and more zoo decks are running it.
3. Mana Fixing
If you run fetches and shocks, you can choose which dual land to grab when you need it. This will set up your plays 2-3 turns ahead of time so you never have to worry about having the right mana for your hand.
4. Speed
The deck can hit hard and fast because of turn 1-3 mana fixing. By turn 3, you should have your Lions/Apes pumped up and be able to play a KotR as a 4/4 or 5/5.
Out of the 13 zoo decks that finished with 15 points or better at Worlds Modern, there wasn't a single M10 or Innistrad dual. Each deck contained at least 8 fetches and at least 6-8 shocks. I wonder why? The bottom line is, there are way too many key cards in this format that rely on lands having the basic land subtypes which M10/Innistrad lands don't have.