Exactly, UWR is swinging back into popularity (not that it was ever particularly unpopular) which explains colonnade.
Thundermaw Hellkite has always been good, but if the recent rumors of fae and tokens becoming mainstay decks of the tournament scene turn out to be true, his price will continue to rise as he does a good job of hosing both decks and is a big bomb.
I just checked the card prices of all my modern cards.
I am cringing in pain.
Sure, now my kiki-pod deck costs 1400 dollars, and I "gained" a lot from other cards, but seriously this prices disgust me.
I got judges Noble Hierarchs because I love the old card frame for 20 dollars, now they are at 100 on SCG.
Sadly for me, I only have 3, so if I want to get the final one I'll have to sell my kidney.
I got nothing because I never ever though of selling them, and if I want to build another deck I'll have to sell/tarde that deck (not happening).
I have several of those cards, but watching those prices doesn't make me any happy.
It makes me feel sick.
I just finished a legacy stoneblade deck, and I find it absurd that it's actually cheaper than some modern decks if you take away the fetches/duals/FoW.
Modern wasn't supposed to be this expensive. Legacy is that way because of the idiotic restricted list.
There's no excuse for wizards to have modern be this expensive.
I can't say anything more that doesn't sounds offensive at Wizards, but I really hope they really keep they word about making modern an "accessible format" and do something about this.
As long as Magic keeps growing, they will always be a good investment.
My guess is that they would deflate a little after they rotate out of standard.
But don't expect a big drop since price memory and modern/commander.
It's not WotC's fault people are paying what the card stores are charging.
At least not until you can mail order cards direct from the printer.
Well, they could obviously increase the supply... And I don't mean by reprinting some stable rares as mythic rares in the new release. Would make more sense to reprint them as uncommons. But then, more people would be able to take part and be competitive in the tournaments, and that is somehow unwanted situation in a format they support. To not to affect standard, they could e.g., make modern master X cards illegal to play in standard (even when the original card itself is standard legal) and where ever they like. And they could keep selling boxes here and there...
I have put my hope on improvement of technology; I am waiting the day that huge amount of high quality counterfeit cards comes out to end this madness.
Playing a deck worth of 1k is really akward as well. I mean, now that you can't sack/rob banks anymore in the old fashion way, why not sack a mtg tournament instead. Just joking with the last part, but yea... till the day someone spills some nasty liquid on the play table.
Why not just make every card a common. Screw drafting.
Rarity balances drafting. By lowering the rarity of powerful cards, you screw with the balance of drafting. Drafting is a cash cow for Wotc and LGS so by screwing with drafting you are directly screwing with their profit margins.
There really is no good way to fix the secondary market,it really is all supply and demand. if people will put up absurd amounts of money for a card they will sell it for an absurd amount of money. when evr deck runs Tarmogoyf then everyone needs tarmogoyf and thats kinda the card that no one can really agree has an equal replacement so they can sell for 150$
Because Wotc knows making the set good (great) for limited they will sell more boxes.
As for another rarity system, it has taken them 20 years to finally get limited to the point where it is good to play and is a solid money maker for Wotc and LGS, why would they want to change that now?
Wotc has finally learned form the mistakes of yesteryear, I doubt they will go backwards.
Quote from Honest Abe »
That being said, do we ever foresee a world where Goyf is under $100 in the next year?
I know a few speculators that feel Goyf will be $200 or better by the middle of Modern season, so I would say no.
It's not WotC's fault people are paying what the card stores are charging.
At least not until you can mail order cards direct from the printer.
Well, they could obviously increase the supply... And I don't mean by reprinting some stable rares as mythic rares in the new release. Would make more sense to reprint them as uncommons. But then, more people would be able to take part and be competitive in the tournaments, and that is somehow unwanted situation in a format they support. To not to affect standard, they could e.g., make modern master X cards illegal to play in standard (even when the original card itself is standard legal) and where ever they like. And they could keep selling boxes here and there...
I have put my hope on improvement of technology; I am waiting the day that huge amount of high quality counterfeit cards comes out to end this madness.
Playing a deck worth of 1k is really akward as well. I mean, now that you can't sack/rob banks anymore in the old fashion way, why not sack a mtg tournament instead. Just joking with the last part, but yea... till the day someone spills some nasty liquid on the play table.
Why not just make every card a common. Screw drafting.
Someone tried that once, removing rarity from a card game.
I believe the system was called "Rolling Thunder."
It ended up being a complete failure. Turned out that rarity had quite the effect on people's incentive to buy into a card game.
There should be a post-mortem document somewhere on the internet chronicling the whole thing.
Sure, increasing the supply should decrease price... if demand stays the same, or decreases.
And that's in the economics equivalent of magical christmas land where all parties are rational agents.
Also there's that whole Chronicles debacle that Wizards never wants to repeat ever again.
I say repeat chronicles. Heck while we are at it throw out the reserved list.
I don't think crashing the market is a good idea for the long-term health of the game.
Well, I think the players who are dedicated would stick around and the speculators and people trying to profit from the game would drop it like a hot potato. That sounds better for the game long term. I would rather have people who play it for a game.
Also there's that whole Chronicles debacle that Wizards never wants to repeat ever again.
Wizards of the Coast needs to stop being so excessively paranoid about Chronicles. Sure, some people got upset about Chronicles. That was also in 1995, 18 years ago. Lots of things have changed since then. They need to stop looking at what things were like in 1995 and pay more attention to what things are like in 2013. You know, when massive reprints of shocklands and Thoughtseize resulted in people being really really happy, and where the #1 complaint about Modern Masters was that they should've made more of it.
There really is no good way to fix the secondary market,it really is all supply and demand. if people will put up absurd amounts of money for a card they will sell it for an absurd amount of money. when evr deck runs Tarmogoyf then everyone needs tarmogoyf and thats kinda the card that no one can really agree has an equal replacement so they can sell for 150$
When the supply increases (in relation to demand), less money people need to pay for a card. Rare people spent more money than they have to. So, increase the supply. Of course Wizard does not care about the game more than they have to, it is a business after all. While the current approach makes them money and the game seems to be growing, changing something "radically" in aim of improve the game is an unnecessary risk from business perspective.
Quote from Yonekura »
Well, I think the players who are dedicated would stick around and the speculators and people trying to profit from the game would drop it like a hot potato. That sounds better for the game long term. I would rather have people who play it for a game.
The problem with this thinking is, you are forgetting first and foremost Magic is a business. Cutting profits to lower card prices would shrink profits across the board. From Hasbro, to Wotc, to the hundreds, possibly thousands of LGS that make money off the game. Add in the massive hit the player base would take.
Cant support these high dollar tournaments and high level play by cutting profits.
I say repeat chronicles.
Chronicles came very close to killing the game off, and you are actively asking form them to repeat that mistake. Interesting thinking.
There really is no good way to fix the secondary market,it really is all supply and demand. if people will put up absurd amounts of money for a card they will sell it for an absurd amount of money. when evr deck runs Tarmogoyf then everyone needs tarmogoyf and thats kinda the card that no one can really agree has an equal replacement so they can sell for 150$
When the supply increases (in relation to demand), less money people need to pay for a card. Rare people spent more money than they have to. So, increase the supply. Of course Wizard does not care about the game more than they have to, it is a business after all. While the current approach makes them money and the game seems to be growing, changing something "radically" in aim of improve the game is an unnecessary risk from business perspective.
Quote from Yonekura »
Well, I think the players who are dedicated would stick around and the speculators and people trying to profit from the game would drop it like a hot potato. That sounds better for the game long term. I would rather have people who play it for a game.
The problem with this thinking is, you are forgetting first and foremost Magic is a business. Cutting profits to lower card prices would shrink profits across the board. From Hasbro, to Wotc, to the hundreds, possibly thousands of LGS that make money off the game. Add in the massive hit the player base would take.
Cant support these high dollar tournaments and high level play by cutting profits.
I say repeat chronicles.
Chronicles came very close to killing the game off, and you are actively asking form them to repeat that mistake. Interesting thinking.
It's not like wizard would be making their card game public domain letting any 3rd party print it. They still would sell product and LGS would still be able to buy and sell it. I doubt the demand to play the game would drop to 0.
-Edit-
Yes, I know I am taking the hardline here but Chronicles did not kill magic they certainly received backlash, but people still played magic even when Chronicles happened. It just makes me upset looking at the card prices. It makes me feel bad playing against people with cards commanding bloated prices. It also discourages people from eternal/pseudo eternal formats. In my opinion 10 dollars is too much for a card. Each card in a booster back at 4.00 is 26.6~ cents. 10 dollars for card is 37 times the msrp of one card. I know not all cards are created equal but its ridiculous when the cards start to be order of magnitudes more expensive than their original cost. Also cards tend not to be unique limited prints, and conversely, they have hundreds of thousands to millions copies printed.
The problem with this thinking is, you are forgetting first and foremost Magic is a business. Cutting profits to lower card prices would shrink profits across the board. From Hasbro, to Wotc, to the hundreds, possibly thousands of LGS that make money off the game. Add in the massive hit the player base would take.
Cant support these high dollar tournaments and high level play by cutting profits.
I am not convinced that increasing supply of highly demanded cards would shrink profits of WoTC. It would probably make the boxes sell like mad as long there is something nice to reprint and there always will be as the game is so old. Also, it might as well affect the player base in totally opposite way and make new talent enter to the tournaments.
Lesser the initial cost, easier it is to convince people to play the game. Currently, probably, there are a lot of people who like the game, but do not play it or do not devote to it as much they would like to, due it being ridiculously expensive.
More competitive decks people have, more sense it makes for them to compete.
Cheaper the decks would be build, more decks one could have and more diversity there could be. E.g., if one could afford the mana base of most decks, he would not have to play RDW.
They have history to prove you are wrong. For as many people they would gain, which I dont think would be as great as you think, they would lose just as many. DOnt forget those who would e trying to sell off to get out with the smallest loss possible. Flood the market with cards and yeah some may be happy, I would say the majority, those who can and do play to play now, would be gone. The you wouldnt have the money to have the high profile tournaments we have now.
The problem with this thinking is, you are forgetting first and foremost Magic is a business. Cutting profits to lower card prices would shrink profits across the board. From Hasbro, to Wotc, to the hundreds, possibly thousands of LGS that make money off the game. Add in the massive hit the player base would take.
Cant support these high dollar tournaments and high level play by cutting profits.
I am not convinced that increasing supply of highly demanded cards would shrink profits of WoTC. It would probably make the boxes sell like mad as long there is something nice to reprint and there always will be as the game is so old. Also, it might as well affect the player base in totally opposite way and make new talent enter to the tournaments.
Lesser the initial cost, easier it is to convince people to play the game. Currently, probably, there are a lot of people who like the game, but do not play it or do not devote to it as much they would like to, due it being ridiculously expensive.
More competitive decks people have, more sense it makes for them to compete.
Cheaper the decks would be build, more decks one could have and more diversity there could be. E.g., if one could afford the mana base of most decks, he would not have to play RDW.
They have history to prove you are wrong. For as many people they would gain, which I dont think would be as great as you think, they would lose just as many. DOnt forget those who would e trying to sell off to get out with the smallest loss possible. Flood the market with cards and yeah some may be happy, I would say the majority, those who can and do play to play now, would be gone. The you wouldnt have the money to have the high profile tournaments we have now.
How does the secondary market affect events? Shouldn't entry fees support the event to a large degree?
After renting the hall, paying the employees, hiring the judges, and you think entry fees cover prize support? Thats rich. Players are complaining now that is costs $40+ to play in an event. Could you imagine if those LGS that cover the losses with profits from singles sales lost those profits? Either entry would skyrocket or TOs would stop having events.
Local TO had a PTQ recently. Around 200 players all paying $25 to play. After the cost of the rent, and salaries, they lost money from the event. The only thing that pull the event out of the red into the black was the sales of singles on site.
What you dont understand is Wotc wants more players not less. Screwing over those who are paying to play is going to hurt the game, not help it. Boxes wouldnt sell because the player base would shrink. The profit margins would shrink for Hasbro all the way down to the speculators.
Here's my question. Why doesn't Wizards directly sell singles? It would allow them to control prices and it would make them a lot of money. And if local stores were put out of business by not being able to sell as many singles, Wizards would be making enough money to buy the stores, directly sell the singles themselves, and make the money off of tournament fees as well.
The problem with this thinking is, you are forgetting first and foremost Magic is a business. Cutting profits to lower card prices would shrink profits across the board. From Hasbro, to Wotc, to the hundreds, possibly thousands of LGS that make money off the game. Add in the massive hit the player base would take.
Cant support these high dollar tournaments and high level play by cutting profits.
I am not convinced that increasing supply of highly demanded cards would shrink profits of WoTC. It would probably make the boxes sell like mad as long there is something nice to reprint and there always will be as the game is so old. Also, it might as well affect the player base in totally opposite way and make new talent enter to the tournaments.
Lesser the initial cost, easier it is to convince people to play the game. Currently, probably, there are a lot of people who like the game, but do not play it or do not devote to it as much they would like to, due it being ridiculously expensive.
More competitive decks people have, more sense it makes for them to compete.
Cheaper the decks would be build, more decks one could have and more diversity there could be. E.g., if one could afford the mana base of most decks, he would not have to play RDW.
It's a runaway effect.
Fundamentally the issue is what happens to entities who actually buy cards for financial reasons.
Increasing the supply will devalue the current circulation, encouraging people to sell cards while they still have value, which further adds to the supply surge and devaluing. People buying in will stock up on hilariously underpriced staples until they have everything they'll ever need. Demand has now flatlined. This is happening during a period of time when stores are buying cards for more than what they're going to make in selling them; Magic has become financially unsound to support, at least in the singles market so far.
But then you get to the sealed product. Sure, if you play limited then it's got value, but there's no actual rational reason to crack packs anymore because
a) you had all the cards you need so cracking packs is just tossing money down the drain
b) opening packs costs you more than the return value of their contents thanks to mass devaluing
So here we see that sealed goods have no worth. Sealed goods tend to be the go to choice for prize offerings, so what do you think happens when event prizes are, as they say, "not worth the paper it's printed on?"
People won't attend, not unless there's a cash payout or something that maintains the "rewards > signup cost" relation needed for a rational agent to justify participating in a competitive event.
I think I'm skipping some beats here but you have to understand that too many cards can trigger a chain reaction leading into MtG's very equivalent of the Great Depression. The game could rebound in time, but the healing process is going to be ugly as sin and you'll regret ever wanting it to happen.
Keep in mind this is all just looking at the worst case scenario. Chronicles teetered on the edge of people cashing out and kickstarting the market downfall.
Modern:
RUGScapeshift[RUG...Occasionally with goyfs
RUGTarmotwinRUG(RIP)
Legacy:
UWxuwr miracles and stonebladeUWx
Commander:
UWRShu Yun/Ruhan SmashUWR
Exactly, UWR is swinging back into popularity (not that it was ever particularly unpopular) which explains colonnade.
Thundermaw Hellkite has always been good, but if the recent rumors of fae and tokens becoming mainstay decks of the tournament scene turn out to be true, his price will continue to rise as he does a good job of hosing both decks and is a big bomb.
I am cringing in pain.
Sure, now my kiki-pod deck costs 1400 dollars, and I "gained" a lot from other cards, but seriously this prices disgust me.
I got judges Noble Hierarchs because I love the old card frame for 20 dollars, now they are at 100 on SCG.
Sadly for me, I only have 3, so if I want to get the final one I'll have to sell my kidney.
I got nothing because I never ever though of selling them, and if I want to build another deck I'll have to sell/tarde that deck (not happening).
Dark Confidant: 80 dollars
Bitterblossom: 45 dollars
Tarmogoyf: 140 dollars
Noble Hierarch: 60 dollars
Vendilion Clique: 60 dollars
Cryptic Command: 45 dollars
Misty Rainforest: 65 dollars
Karn Liberated: 55 dollars
Liliana of the Veil: 65 dollars
I have several of those cards, but watching those prices doesn't make me any happy.
It makes me feel sick.
I just finished a legacy stoneblade deck, and I find it absurd that it's actually cheaper than some modern decks if you take away the fetches/duals/FoW.
Modern wasn't supposed to be this expensive. Legacy is that way because of the idiotic restricted list.
There's no excuse for wizards to have modern be this expensive.
I can't say anything more that doesn't sounds offensive at Wizards, but I really hope they really keep they word about making modern an "accessible format" and do something about this.
My guess is that they would deflate a little after they rotate out of standard.
But don't expect a big drop since price memory and modern/commander.
At least not until you can mail order cards direct from the printer.
Why not just make every card a common. Screw drafting.
I loathe creatures! Praise Prison and Land Destruction!
My Peasant Cube (looking for feedback)
That being said, do we ever foresee a world where Goyf is under $100 in the next year?
BWTeysa, Orzhov Scion Combo
GUEzuri, Claw of progress Morph
GUBSidisi, Brood tyrant
RWGisela, Blade of Goldnight Random red white cards i dont use.dec
GBLoam Pox
Modern
UBFaeries
GBWGoyfless Abzan
On Squirrels
On Risen Executioner
As for another rarity system, it has taken them 20 years to finally get limited to the point where it is good to play and is a solid money maker for Wotc and LGS, why would they want to change that now?
Wotc has finally learned form the mistakes of yesteryear, I doubt they will go backwards.
I know a few speculators that feel Goyf will be $200 or better by the middle of Modern season, so I would say no.
Someone tried that once, removing rarity from a card game.
I believe the system was called "Rolling Thunder."
It ended up being a complete failure. Turned out that rarity had quite the effect on people's incentive to buy into a card game.
There should be a post-mortem document somewhere on the internet chronicling the whole thing.
And that's in the economics equivalent of magical christmas land where all parties are rational agents.
Also there's that whole Chronicles debacle that Wizards never wants to repeat ever again.
I say repeat chronicles. Heck while we are at it throw out the reserved list.
I loathe creatures! Praise Prison and Land Destruction!
My Peasant Cube (looking for feedback)
I don't think crashing the market is a good idea for the long-term health of the game.
Well, I think the players who are dedicated would stick around and the speculators and people trying to profit from the game would drop it like a hot potato. That sounds better for the game long term. I would rather have people who play it for a game.
I loathe creatures! Praise Prison and Land Destruction!
My Peasant Cube (looking for feedback)
Wizards of the Coast needs to stop being so excessively paranoid about Chronicles. Sure, some people got upset about Chronicles. That was also in 1995, 18 years ago. Lots of things have changed since then. They need to stop looking at what things were like in 1995 and pay more attention to what things are like in 2013. You know, when massive reprints of shocklands and Thoughtseize resulted in people being really really happy, and where the #1 complaint about Modern Masters was that they should've made more of it.
The problem with this thinking is, you are forgetting first and foremost Magic is a business. Cutting profits to lower card prices would shrink profits across the board. From Hasbro, to Wotc, to the hundreds, possibly thousands of LGS that make money off the game. Add in the massive hit the player base would take.
Cant support these high dollar tournaments and high level play by cutting profits.
Chronicles came very close to killing the game off, and you are actively asking form them to repeat that mistake. Interesting thinking.
It's not like wizard would be making their card game public domain letting any 3rd party print it. They still would sell product and LGS would still be able to buy and sell it. I doubt the demand to play the game would drop to 0.
-Edit-
Yes, I know I am taking the hardline here but Chronicles did not kill magic they certainly received backlash, but people still played magic even when Chronicles happened. It just makes me upset looking at the card prices. It makes me feel bad playing against people with cards commanding bloated prices. It also discourages people from eternal/pseudo eternal formats. In my opinion 10 dollars is too much for a card. Each card in a booster back at 4.00 is 26.6~ cents. 10 dollars for card is 37 times the msrp of one card. I know not all cards are created equal but its ridiculous when the cards start to be order of magnitudes more expensive than their original cost. Also cards tend not to be unique limited prints, and conversely, they have hundreds of thousands to millions copies printed.
I loathe creatures! Praise Prison and Land Destruction!
My Peasant Cube (looking for feedback)
They have history to prove you are wrong. For as many people they would gain, which I dont think would be as great as you think, they would lose just as many. DOnt forget those who would e trying to sell off to get out with the smallest loss possible. Flood the market with cards and yeah some may be happy, I would say the majority, those who can and do play to play now, would be gone. The you wouldnt have the money to have the high profile tournaments we have now.
How does the secondary market affect events? Shouldn't entry fees support the event to a large degree?
I loathe creatures! Praise Prison and Land Destruction!
My Peasant Cube (looking for feedback)
Local TO had a PTQ recently. Around 200 players all paying $25 to play. After the cost of the rent, and salaries, they lost money from the event. The only thing that pull the event out of the red into the black was the sales of singles on site.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
It's a runaway effect.
Fundamentally the issue is what happens to entities who actually buy cards for financial reasons.
Increasing the supply will devalue the current circulation, encouraging people to sell cards while they still have value, which further adds to the supply surge and devaluing. People buying in will stock up on hilariously underpriced staples until they have everything they'll ever need. Demand has now flatlined. This is happening during a period of time when stores are buying cards for more than what they're going to make in selling them; Magic has become financially unsound to support, at least in the singles market so far.
But then you get to the sealed product. Sure, if you play limited then it's got value, but there's no actual rational reason to crack packs anymore because
a) you had all the cards you need so cracking packs is just tossing money down the drain
b) opening packs costs you more than the return value of their contents thanks to mass devaluing
So here we see that sealed goods have no worth. Sealed goods tend to be the go to choice for prize offerings, so what do you think happens when event prizes are, as they say, "not worth the paper it's printed on?"
People won't attend, not unless there's a cash payout or something that maintains the "rewards > signup cost" relation needed for a rational agent to justify participating in a competitive event.
I think I'm skipping some beats here but you have to understand that too many cards can trigger a chain reaction leading into MtG's very equivalent of the Great Depression. The game could rebound in time, but the healing process is going to be ugly as sin and you'll regret ever wanting it to happen.
Keep in mind this is all just looking at the worst case scenario. Chronicles teetered on the edge of people cashing out and kickstarting the market downfall.
"Let's not even touch that question with a 20ft pole, and instead err on the side of printing not enough."