According to mtgtop8, the metagame breakdown for mediocre (or worse) Trophy match-ups looks like this. (In this scenario, "mediocre" implies that Trophy has some relevant applications but mostly you'd rather have Decay. "Bad" implies that you'll almost always prefer decay over Trophy)
Keep in mind I'm referring to how AT compares specifically to Abrupt decay in these match-ups. Not that it's completely dead in the "bad" match-ups I've cited, just that Decay would be strongly preferred. Now let's look at the metagame breakdown of decks where Trophy is favored over Decay. (In this second list, "good" implies Trophy is preferred for some critical targets but Decay is still important and useful. "Great" implies you'll almost always prefer Trophy over Decay)
UWx Control 13% (good)
Tron 4% (great)
KCI 3% (great)
Hollow One 4% (great)
Mardu Pyro 3% (good)
Infect 2% (good)
For my assessments I've factored in which perms are relevant that Decay can't hit and how badly ramping your opponent can screw you over in a match-up.
26% you will strongly prefer Abrupt Decay over Assassin's Trophy
11% you will strongly prefer Assassin's Trophy over Abrupt Decay.
Now there's something to be said for the matches you actually want to hedge your main deck against, such as Tron. Shoring up the Tron game (our deck's arch nemesis) is probably worth more than the metagame presence breakdown suggests. This all of course depends on what meta you're talking about and how much you can anticipate.
According to mtgtop8, the metagame breakdown for mediocre (or worse) Trophy match-ups looks like this. (In this scenario, "mediocre" implies that Trophy has some relevant applications but mostly you'd rather have Decay. "Bad" implies that you'll almost always prefer decay over Trophy)
Keep in mind I'm referring to how AT compares specifically to Abrupt decay in these match-ups. Not that it's completely dead in the "bad" match-ups I've cited, just that Decay would be strongly preferred. Now let's look at the metagame breakdown of decks where Trophy is favored over Decay. (In this second list, "good" implies Trophy is preferred for some critical targets but Decay is still important and useful. "Great" implies you'll almost always prefer Trophy over Decay)
UWx Control 13% (good)
Tron 4% (great)
KCI 3% (great)
Hollow One 4% (great)
Mardu Pyro 3% (good)
Infect 2% (good)
For my assessments I've factored in which perms are relevant that Decay can't hit and how badly ramping your opponent can screw you over in a match-up.
26% you will strongly prefer Abrupt Decay over Assassin's Trophy
11% you will strongly prefer Assassin's Trophy over Abrupt Decay.
Now there's something to be said for the matches you actually want to hedge your main deck against, such as Tron. Shoring up the Tron game (our deck's arch nemesis) is probably worth more than the metagame presence breakdown suggests. This all of course depends on what meta you're talking about and how much you can anticipate.
I like this analysis style, but there are two significant issues with its execution here.
First, it assumes that all matchups are significantly affected by a bad Trophy application even if the matchup is already very close or favored. Let's say Humans is about 50/50. It's probably 45/55 because Humans is way better than people think, but let's assume it's 50/50. Does playing a 3/1 Trophy/Decay split instead of a 2/2 Trophy/Decay split cost so many matchup percentage points in Humans that it isn't worth picked up matchup points in something like 40/60 Tron? This seems very unlikely. A few Trophy critics consistently hyperboilze the card's so-called drawbacks, but we already know that the correct Decay number in this metagame is 2. So we're not arguing about increasing the Decay count to 3. We are arguing about whether to run 1-3 Trophies and 1-2 Decays. So, does that 2nd copy of Decay and 2nd/3rd copy of Trophy cost us as many percentage points as the overselling critiques are suggesting? My guess is no. In the example above, I suspect that Trophy adds at least 3%-5% to our Gx Tron matchup while cutting less than 1% in Humans.
Second, it assumes you will actually encounter these decks in these estimated percentages. You rarely do even at large events. You certainly don't on MTGO, where a 5 match League could see a 3/2 Humans/UWx split or 3 aggro decks and 2 ramp decks. It's going to vary wildly every time. That is why we want catchall answers that do something in all matchups, not hedging against a 10% deck we might never play against. Assuming Humans is 10% of the metagame on MTGO, you have an approximately 60% chance of seeing exactly ZERO Humans matchups in a 5 match league. We can't make card slot choices on those odds. Instead, we need to assume truly open metagames where your maindeck includes cards that are as universally relevant as possible. Trophy meets that standard. Decay doesn't which is why 2 is by far the established number.
I am actually not so sure how better the tron matchup will get, at least not the matches where we are on the draw. Trophy does prevent a turn 3 karn, but it also delays the deployment of a threat by 1 turn. Like if you are on the draw, you have to play trophy turn 2 (unless you don't see 2 tron lands being played on turns 1 and 2 of course), which means you are not dropping a goyf down turn 2. And since the tron deck is rather good at assembling tron, I would imagine they need this extra turn to reassemble tron again after we trophy. On the play it is really good though, since we can go turn 1 discard, turn 2 goyf and then turn 3 trophy. If we assume we will be 50 % on the draw and 50 % on the play vs Tron on average, then the trophy effect is only half as good. But of course there is the possibility of having multiple trophies as well. However, since we are not inclined to actually have a trophy on turn 2 generally (we would rather have it on turn 3 or 4) it could make our mulligan decisions to be lined up bad against Tron, where we actually want a turn 2 trophy. So it kind of feels awkward to me.
However, I think a split which differs in one card like the trophy/decay split is too small of a difference to be worth talking about. In fact not anybody here can accurately say the difference of this change, since its a statistical factor which only gets relevant when you play 1000+ games with those different configurations. Thats also my problem when people are too nitpicky about the numbers of cards according to good finishes. Its just one miser tournament. There are factors which are way way more impactful than some exact numbers of cards. I rarely doubt that the change of one trophy to a decay or vice versa will always decide if you win in a given matchup or not. On decay for example I always have been on 1 copy only and ran fantastic with it, despite the overall average of 2 copies. Its just a personal preference, and while the available data says its "wrong" I still won't just play 2 copies of it. I think Decay has been the worst removal in Jund for a long time now, and I much rather play a second Push or other stuff in place of it. I am not basing this of statistics though, its my personal preference of how many conditional and unconditional removal I want to have in my Jund deck to be comfortable. If I know I only have 1 decay in my deck then I will of course not waste it on a meaningless target if the matchup generally demands decay (like the spirits matchup) so it changes the way I personally play the deck. A list is always attached to a player and its playstyle (especially in a midrange deck) for which reason one person might do well with 4 KCommands whereas I maybe wouldn't. So therefore I am personally always hesitant to completely rely on finishing decklists. I think a good balance of both netdecking as well as self-work has to be done in order to be a good Jund pilot. It does not only help to understand the reasons for running certain cards but also gets you deeper into the topic if you are forced to think about it yourself. And therefore I am not the hugest fan of statistics of decklists when it comes down to minor card number differences, since I am well aware that the sample sizes are pretty much always too low and the interpretation of the data is often made too inclusive.
I think there are very few cards that make the Tron matchup favorable on the draw, but the ability to even break up Tron before it's assembled is going to give us some wiggle room that we've never had reasonable access to before. I actually think that a B/G list like the one I posted on the last page goes pretty even with Tron because you have so many ways to disrupt their assembly of Tron. When I was putting together the sideboard I didn't even feel like I needed additional land destruction, and my plan is just to bring in the Surgicals, Duress, and the Natural State.
As far as Jund and Abzan go, I think that Trophy does a lot less for them in the Tron matchup. I think that they're unlikely to run the full playset of Trophy, and their manabases can't support Field of Ruin without opening themselves up to some real mana consistency issues. Fulminator Mage is still an option, but then their sideboards are just as constrained as they are now.
My hot take is that a more favorable matchup against Tron and U/W Miracles is going to make straight B/G the "best" B/G/x deck for the fall.
I am actually not so sure how better the tron matchup will get, at least not the matches where we are on the draw. Trophy does prevent a turn 3 karn, but it also delays the deployment of a threat by 1 turn. Like if you are on the draw, you have to play trophy turn 2 (unless you don't see 2 tron lands being played on turns 1 and 2 of course), which means you are not dropping a goyf down turn 2. And since the tron deck is rather good at assembling tron, I would imagine they need this extra turn to reassemble tron again after we trophy. On the play it is really good though, since we can go turn 1 discard, turn 2 goyf and then turn 3 trophy. If we assume we will be 50 % on the draw and 50 % on the play vs Tron on average, then the trophy effect is only half as good. But of course there is the possibility of having multiple trophies as well. However, since we are not inclined to actually have a trophy on turn 2 generally (we would rather have it on turn 3 or 4) it could make our mulligan decisions to be lined up bad against Tron, where we actually want a turn 2 trophy. So it kind of feels awkward to me.
However, I think a split which differs in one card like the trophy/decay split is too small of a difference to be worth talking about. In fact not anybody here can accurately say the difference of this change, since its a statistical factor which only gets relevant when you play 1000+ games with those different configurations. Thats also my problem when people are too nitpicky about the numbers of cards according to good finishes. Its just one miser tournament. There are factors which are way way more impactful than some exact numbers of cards. I rarely doubt that the change of one trophy to a decay or vice versa will always decide if you win in a given matchup or not. On decay for example I always have been on 1 copy only and ran fantastic with it, despite the overall average of 2 copies. Its just a personal preference, and while the available data says its "wrong" I still won't just play 2 copies of it. I think Decay has been the worst removal in Jund for a long time now, and I much rather play a second Push or other stuff in place of it. I am not basing this of statistics though, its my personal preference of how many conditional and unconditional removal I want to have in my Jund deck to be comfortable. If I know I only have 1 decay in my deck then I will of course not waste it on a meaningless target if the matchup generally demands decay (like the spirits matchup) so it changes the way I personally play the deck. A list is always attached to a player and its playstyle (especially in a midrange deck) for which reason one person might do well with 4 KCommands whereas I maybe wouldn't. So therefore I am personally always hesitant to completely rely on finishing decklists. I think a good balance of both netdecking as well as self-work has to be done in order to be a good Jund pilot. It does not only help to understand the reasons for running certain cards but also gets you deeper into the topic if you are forced to think about it yourself. And therefore I am not the hugest fan of statistics of decklists when it comes down to minor card number differences, since I am well aware that the sample sizes are pretty much always too low and the interpretation of the data is often made too inclusive.
The TRON matchup gets so much better because we get to play surgical in our side as our GY hate. Trophy the TRON land and surgical the rest away. It was too cute trying to make it work with Fulminator Mage in the past, but now this combo is just stupid. I'm planning 3-4 surgicals just to rip everything appart and beatdown with a leftover 2cmc creature.
As for the ramp that's bad against Humans I disagree. Except for Buglar, they have no card advantage. So even if we ramp them to 10000000 mana, they can't use it. Trade 1 for 1 and you'll get them, Their manabase is also really shaky, if you blow up their 5c lands and leave them with basics, how are they going to cast Freebooter or Mantis rider? They only play 1 Island and 1 Plains, use that knowledge to your advantage. Trophy will be a big part of my strategy here (in conjuction with Path to Exile).
The only matchups I really think Decay is better is Burn, storm, elves and Bant Spirits. For everything else, Trophy is better since as many others mentionned, it will free up sideboard slots and it also makes 4 surgicals (instead of spellbomb) in the side as a perfect fit for graveyard, big mana & combo based decks.
Btw I played Amulet for along time and Trophy will be amazing agaisnt them. I think several people here are assuming bad matchups without having really played it. An other example is Trophy vs Jund will be much better than decay. Raging ravine is a real problem and i'm not deciding whether my removal should be to kill Bob T2 or save for Ravine (assuming you only have push in hand and might draw a Decay later), I shoot the Bob on the spot and know that all my removal deals with Ravine anyways when he gets there.
Ramping, imo, is only dangerous vs Combo, Burn and card advantage decks with lots of threats (Bant spirits or Elves fit that description). The rest all become better matchups.
In BG decks, I would almost be tempted to play 4 Ghost quarters, E-Wit, Liliana the last hope and some number of Life From the Loam. Now you really get to mess with their lands and eventually they'll run out completely.
I can see a world where we would play a 3/2 split on Trophy and Decay instead of 3/1/1 on AT/AD/Pulse. But there's just no way that a 2/2 or 2/3 split is correct on Day 1 of the new meta. Decay is a really narrow card. There are matchups where it has virtually, or literally, zero relevant targets. Trophy always does something and it often does a lot. We can't hedge on Decay being good in matchups when you might go an entire tournament without seeing those matchups. At least Trophy is always removing something and often removing something that Decay can't hit at all. This is the same reason we often see 3 TS in BGx even if TS is harmful and risky in many matchups. It's a catchall answer in a very diverse format. Trophy fits that bill.
I'm glad you brought up this point. Have you noticed how IOK outnumbers TS is nearly every deck that uses both (except Shadow for obvious reasons). IOK is obviously far more narrow but it has no drawback. Then why on Earth is the split usually 4iok/2ts rather than reversed? Your logic here is already proven (incorrect) by the way people play TS and IOK.
You can't really compare the IOK/TS split with cards that affect board state. All discard spells are meant to be played early to disrupt the opponent, and usually people have a steady curve so there are good IOK targets. However, once we're in the midgame, the opponent is top decking, and has enought lands to cast any spell they draw, having broader removal spells is more important since you need to answer any large top deck. If anything, having more IOK makes Trophy more necessary since you've already taken their cheap cards and now need to answer their expensive threats. Also, IOK can nab instants and sorceries, which decay does not. This is why IOK feels fine against Jeskai where Decay can feel absolutely useless. It's okay if you don't agree with peoples split between cards. I'm just saying comparing hand disruption with permanent removal isn't an exact 1:1.
For hand disruption, I usually play a 3/3 split or a 4/3 IOK/TS split if I go up to seven (So basically always 3 Thoughtseize). I plan on playing all 4 Trophies and no Decays or Pulses unless I see a need to increase my removal suite.
"The worst part isn't the pain, or the smell, or even the fear of death. It's hearing the clatter of bone on stone and knowing the bones are yours."BRG
I just played against Tron and couldn't do anything despite drawing 3 Trophies, 3 FoR and D-Sphere (although this one was probably too late to mater). Don't know if I misplayed but the mu still seems very bad, regardless of Trophy and other stuff we have.
To beat TRON, you need a clock. I never keep a hand without a T2 clock because we can have all the disruption we want but we'll never "prison lock" them out of the game and they eventually get enough lands and a threat that immediately overpowers us. The matchup will stay unfavorable, but the number of 7 card hands with 1 disruption and 1 clock greatly improve. Any hand with a combination of 2 lands, Goyf or flayer and stony or trophy is a hand that could win it.
This is where the Goyf/Grim flayer guys kick in and do work compared to Tireless Tracker and Tasigur. Without them, I agree with you that the matchup is kinda hopeless.
I had a clock. My opening hand was: Bob, Goyf, IoK, Swamp, Overgrown Tomb, Assassin's Trophy and LoTV. I went with turn 1 IoK and take Relic of Progenitus (he had only lands but not tron yet and eggs) and follow up with turn 2 Bob to draw into more disruption and lands to play Liliana but didn't draw third land for several turns and this definitely hurt me. Perhaps I should play Goyf to set up early pressure but I think Bob was correct play.
I felt that with FoR and Trophy I gave him enough mana to play his threats pretty quickly despite I was able to keep him off Tron for quite long. Perhaps I got unlucky but Trophy and FoR didn't offer as much help as I thought it would.
I would have definately played Goyf instead of Bob in that spot. Goyf would have hit for 5 a turn, meaning he would have only 4 turns to recover from your trophy on his land. It's far from a guaranteed win, but I think it's your best bet. If he stumbles 2 turns before getting a threat on the battlefield you most likely win, but if he's a good TRON player he'll have the natural tron in hand with Karn (it feels as they always do) and there's nothing to do about that 97% of the time.
On the play, I always deploy my threat first and then disrupt. On the draw, it depends on whether I think he has it or not on T3 and wing it from there.
Extrapolating anything about the BGx Tron matchup from a single potentially misplayed game on Weekend 1 of Trophy legality seems problematic. There are also some weird assessments here, as FoR doesn't give any mana. It Just cycles lands in play and actually decreases their chance of hitting drops. The key for Tron is always establishing a clock off targeted disruption. Trophy is excellent targeted distuption. BGx needs something like Flayer or Goyf to turn that corner. Jund is the best at this with BBE, Bolt, and KCommand, and Abzan Traverse is second best with consistent 4/4 Flayers and giant 5/6+ Goyfs.
Ramping, imo, is only dangerous vs Combo, Burn and card advantage decks with lots of threats (Bant spirits or Elves fit that description). The rest all become better matchups.
Burn decks rarely seem to pack a Plains. Destroying their Sacred Foundry can be a tremendous help.
Ramping, imo, is only dangerous vs Combo, Burn and card advantage decks with lots of threats (Bant spirits or Elves fit that description). The rest all become better matchups.
Burn decks rarely seem to pack a Plains. Destroying their Sacred Foundry can be a tremendous help.
But it's only a 2-color deck. All their fetches are still gunning for R&W. It's not likely that Trophy will be locking any 2-color opponent out of a color. And even if you do lock them out of white, it only shuts down 8 cards from their main deck
II guess but I mean in Game 1 before you take out your trophies what would hit with Trophy? Hitting Sacred Foundries is not the worst idea. Discarding them being the other option if you have Lili.
I'm a big fan of main deck Collective Brutality in BG Rock, so you can also pitch useless cards to that.
If you've seen their hand and know they're holding a white card, then it might be worth it to cut them off from white. I'll agree with that. Or if you need to kill an Eidolon when they're almost out of cards anyway ( so the ramp won't matter)
@DeFish, I like your list and I like where you're coming from in general. Darkblast is definitely one I'll have to keep in mind.
So I recently started up my humble YouTube channel! My timing is predictably awful, since we've just entered the era of Trophy and the few videos I have all predate that, for now. Still, I put together a lengthy deck tech for BG Rock (this is mostly aimed at giving beginners context and application for every inclusion, but may be worthwhile for more experienced players too), and I also have a couple replay matches uploaded with commentary.
If anyone wants to check them out, I'd love your feedback, being new to all this stuff. (My audio is low quality, but I'll be upgrading that before too long.)
(I checked the forum rules and this doesn't seem to qualify as soliciting. At this rate I'm still years away from monetization, lol. Just trying to spread the BGx love in all its forms!)
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@DeFish, I like your list and I like where you're coming from in general. Darkblast is definitely one I'll have to keep in mind.
So I recently started up my humble YouTube channel! My timing is predictably awful, since we've just entered the era of Trophy and the few videos I have all predate that, for now. Still, I put together a lengthy deck tech for BG Rock (this is mostly aimed at giving beginners context and application for every inclusion, but may be worthwhile for more experienced players too), and I also have a couple replay matches uploaded with commentary.
If anyone wants to check them out, I'd love your feedback, being new to all this stuff. (My audio is low quality, but I'll be upgrading that before too long.)
(I checked the forum rules and this doesn't seem to qualify as soliciting. At this rate I'm still years away from monetization, lol. Just trying to spread the BGx love in all its forms!)
Coolstuff man, will definitely take a look at these vids and report back. This will be very interesting for newcomers and beginning GBx players for sure.
EDIT: As a first point (and correct me if I missed it, I kinda scrolled through the vid a bit) I would mention the cost or consequence of replacing Bob with Tracker. I always keep getting back to this topic, because I think it is very important. Bob and Tracker do not occupy the same purpose and slot in the deck. So exchanging those two is not a freebe. It comes with a cost. Bob is an early game CA card but Tracker is a endgame Bomb. You said in the video that you play it as a 4 drop, like BBE. But you didn't say (again, correct me if I missed it) that Bob and Tracker can't therfore simply be exchanged unless you are fine by taking out some early game in favour of lategame power.
@DeFish, I like your list and I like where you're coming from in general. Darkblast is definitely one I'll have to keep in mind.
So I recently started up my humble YouTube channel! My timing is predictably awful, since we've just entered the era of Trophy and the few videos I have all predate that, for now. Still, I put together a lengthy deck tech for BG Rock (this is mostly aimed at giving beginners context and application for every inclusion, but may be worthwhile for more experienced players too), and I also have a couple replay matches uploaded with commentary.
If anyone wants to check them out, I'd love your feedback, being new to all this stuff. (My audio is low quality, but I'll be upgrading that before too long.)
(I checked the forum rules and this doesn't seem to qualify as soliciting. At this rate I'm still years away from monetization, lol. Just trying to spread the BGx love in all its forms!)
Coolstuff man, will definitely take a look at these vids and report back. This will be very interesting for newcomers and beginning GBx players for sure.
EDIT: As a first point (and correct me if I missed it, I kinda scrolled through the vid a bit) I would mention the cost or consequence of replacing Bob with Tracker. I always keep getting back to this topic, because I think it is very important. Bob and Tracker do not occupy the same purpose and slot in the deck. So exchanging those two is not a freebe. It comes with a cost. Bob is an early game CA card but Tracker is a endgame Bomb. You said in the video that you play it as a 4 drop, like BBE. But you didn't say (again, correct me if I missed it) that Bob and Tracker can't therfore simply be exchanged unless you are fine by taking out some early game in favour of lategame power.
Thanks for taking a look, my friend, I truly appreciate it.
You’re right in that I didn’t discuss the pros and cons of Tracker vs Bob vs playing both together. I did mention early on that this is only one of several ways to build the deck; I also briefly mentioned the lack of Bob and how I still like him a lot in these sorts of decks, but this particular build eschews him; but I didn’t go any further into the topic than that. In retrospect, I could have delineated the variant Rock shells a little more clearly at the start and then pivoted to discussing in particular the one that I’ve been running. This has been (and will continue to be) very much a learn-as-I-go sort of process, lol!
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I think treetop village is actually very tough to run in Rock. I honestly think they should be Quagmires. The reason being that we run 5 Lili PWs, which is quite a bit and if we want to run FoR, then the black sources are getting very tight. Right now this manabase has 17 sources, I personally would like at least one more black source for a more consistant double black availability for casting Lilis on time. Maybe a 3/1 split of Quagmire/Treetop is a good compromise. Also Sol Malka does mention this issue, and thats the reason he runns 4 quagmires. Its solely due to the mana requirements alongside running a couple of colourless lands.
Other than that, another black fetchland seems like a good idea instead of 5th basic. I like it to have more often revolt. The list looks really good to me otherwise. Not sure if we need the decay but I guess its fine for testing.
Since the SB is a mess right now like you mentioned, I'll give it a few thoughts on my part:
I think we need some strong sweepers to deal with go-wide strategies since if Trophy impacts the format yet in the slightest, then go-wide strategies benefit from it. So I would start by playing 2 Damnation in the SB. I would also look for a third kind of sweeper additionally. But the problem is what to run, I think another 4 CMC sweeper is too much. Unfortunately EE is very unflexible in a 2 colour deck and Flaying Tendrils misses a tad too much probably. But it could still be worth it alongisde the 2 Damnations. Other options are Gaze of Granite (sol malka likes and plays this card) or Golgari Charm.
GY hate of some sort is of course obligatory, but the question remains whether we want Leylines or not. I think in either way, which is related but still seperate, we want Surgical due to the trophy + surgical synergy pretty much. Surgical is not a GY hate at first instance but it often occupies the same slots.
If we don't run the second LtLH in the main, then she should surely be in the SB in my opinion.
I really like Nissa, Vital Force as a bomb against other midrange decks and control decks. It could be an impactful 1-of in the SB. Also Choke is a potentially potent 1-of to hedge against Control. Not sure its worth it though.
Then I am not sure if and how many fulminators we want. We could also just play Damping Spheres, since they are more impactful against Tron and with trophy and surgical it could really shore up win% finally. But the control matchup would suffer by cutting Fulminators. However, again, for this reason Choke as a specific hate might be a good compromise.
I think we need some strong sweepers to deal with go-wide strategies since if Trophy impacts the format yet in the slightest, then go-wide strategies benefit from it. So I would start by playing 2 Damnation in the SB. I would also look for a third kind of sweeper additionally. But the problem is what to run, I think another 4 CMC sweeper is too much. Unfortunately EE is very unflexible in a 2 colour deck and Flaying Tendrils misses a tad too much probably. But it could still be worth it alongisde the 2 Damnations. Other options are Gaze of Granite (sol malka likes and plays this card) or Golgari Charm.
What're your thoughts on Yahenni's Expertise as another sweeper option? It's a 4 CMC which doesn't fit one of the criteria you mentioned, but it fits the bill and the second effect could be a good tempo advantage to drop virtually any threat the deck has (Goyfs, either Lili, Trackers, etc.). I'm personally testing one in my SB b/c Spirits has been popular at my LGS and it helps skirt around Selfless Spirit.
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
Humans 10% (bad)
Burn 8% (bad)
Affinity 6% (mediocre)
Spirits 5% (bad)
Jund & Junk 4+1% (mediocre)
Death's Shadow 2% (GDS - Mediocre, 4CS - Bad)
GWx Vizier Combo 2% (bad)
Amulet Titan 1% (mediocre)
Keep in mind I'm referring to how AT compares specifically to Abrupt decay in these match-ups. Not that it's completely dead in the "bad" match-ups I've cited, just that Decay would be strongly preferred. Now let's look at the metagame breakdown of decks where Trophy is favored over Decay. (In this second list, "good" implies Trophy is preferred for some critical targets but Decay is still important and useful. "Great" implies you'll almost always prefer Trophy over Decay)
UWx Control 13% (good)
Tron 4% (great)
KCI 3% (great)
Hollow One 4% (great)
Mardu Pyro 3% (good)
Infect 2% (good)
For my assessments I've factored in which perms are relevant that Decay can't hit and how badly ramping your opponent can screw you over in a match-up.
26% you will strongly prefer Abrupt Decay over Assassin's Trophy
11% you will strongly prefer Assassin's Trophy over Abrupt Decay.
Now there's something to be said for the matches you actually want to hedge your main deck against, such as Tron. Shoring up the Tron game (our deck's arch nemesis) is probably worth more than the metagame presence breakdown suggests. This all of course depends on what meta you're talking about and how much you can anticipate.
Draft My Cube!
I like this analysis style, but there are two significant issues with its execution here.
First, it assumes that all matchups are significantly affected by a bad Trophy application even if the matchup is already very close or favored. Let's say Humans is about 50/50. It's probably 45/55 because Humans is way better than people think, but let's assume it's 50/50. Does playing a 3/1 Trophy/Decay split instead of a 2/2 Trophy/Decay split cost so many matchup percentage points in Humans that it isn't worth picked up matchup points in something like 40/60 Tron? This seems very unlikely. A few Trophy critics consistently hyperboilze the card's so-called drawbacks, but we already know that the correct Decay number in this metagame is 2. So we're not arguing about increasing the Decay count to 3. We are arguing about whether to run 1-3 Trophies and 1-2 Decays. So, does that 2nd copy of Decay and 2nd/3rd copy of Trophy cost us as many percentage points as the overselling critiques are suggesting? My guess is no. In the example above, I suspect that Trophy adds at least 3%-5% to our Gx Tron matchup while cutting less than 1% in Humans.
Second, it assumes you will actually encounter these decks in these estimated percentages. You rarely do even at large events. You certainly don't on MTGO, where a 5 match League could see a 3/2 Humans/UWx split or 3 aggro decks and 2 ramp decks. It's going to vary wildly every time. That is why we want catchall answers that do something in all matchups, not hedging against a 10% deck we might never play against. Assuming Humans is 10% of the metagame on MTGO, you have an approximately 60% chance of seeing exactly ZERO Humans matchups in a 5 match league. We can't make card slot choices on those odds. Instead, we need to assume truly open metagames where your maindeck includes cards that are as universally relevant as possible. Trophy meets that standard. Decay doesn't which is why 2 is by far the established number.
However, I think a split which differs in one card like the trophy/decay split is too small of a difference to be worth talking about. In fact not anybody here can accurately say the difference of this change, since its a statistical factor which only gets relevant when you play 1000+ games with those different configurations. Thats also my problem when people are too nitpicky about the numbers of cards according to good finishes. Its just one miser tournament. There are factors which are way way more impactful than some exact numbers of cards. I rarely doubt that the change of one trophy to a decay or vice versa will always decide if you win in a given matchup or not. On decay for example I always have been on 1 copy only and ran fantastic with it, despite the overall average of 2 copies. Its just a personal preference, and while the available data says its "wrong" I still won't just play 2 copies of it. I think Decay has been the worst removal in Jund for a long time now, and I much rather play a second Push or other stuff in place of it. I am not basing this of statistics though, its my personal preference of how many conditional and unconditional removal I want to have in my Jund deck to be comfortable. If I know I only have 1 decay in my deck then I will of course not waste it on a meaningless target if the matchup generally demands decay (like the spirits matchup) so it changes the way I personally play the deck. A list is always attached to a player and its playstyle (especially in a midrange deck) for which reason one person might do well with 4 KCommands whereas I maybe wouldn't. So therefore I am personally always hesitant to completely rely on finishing decklists. I think a good balance of both netdecking as well as self-work has to be done in order to be a good Jund pilot. It does not only help to understand the reasons for running certain cards but also gets you deeper into the topic if you are forced to think about it yourself. And therefore I am not the hugest fan of statistics of decklists when it comes down to minor card number differences, since I am well aware that the sample sizes are pretty much always too low and the interpretation of the data is often made too inclusive.
As far as Jund and Abzan go, I think that Trophy does a lot less for them in the Tron matchup. I think that they're unlikely to run the full playset of Trophy, and their manabases can't support Field of Ruin without opening themselves up to some real mana consistency issues. Fulminator Mage is still an option, but then their sideboards are just as constrained as they are now.
My hot take is that a more favorable matchup against Tron and U/W Miracles is going to make straight B/G the "best" B/G/x deck for the fall.
The TRON matchup gets so much better because we get to play surgical in our side as our GY hate. Trophy the TRON land and surgical the rest away. It was too cute trying to make it work with Fulminator Mage in the past, but now this combo is just stupid. I'm planning 3-4 surgicals just to rip everything appart and beatdown with a leftover 2cmc creature.
As for the ramp that's bad against Humans I disagree. Except for Buglar, they have no card advantage. So even if we ramp them to 10000000 mana, they can't use it. Trade 1 for 1 and you'll get them, Their manabase is also really shaky, if you blow up their 5c lands and leave them with basics, how are they going to cast Freebooter or Mantis rider? They only play 1 Island and 1 Plains, use that knowledge to your advantage. Trophy will be a big part of my strategy here (in conjuction with Path to Exile).
The only matchups I really think Decay is better is Burn, storm, elves and Bant Spirits. For everything else, Trophy is better since as many others mentionned, it will free up sideboard slots and it also makes 4 surgicals (instead of spellbomb) in the side as a perfect fit for graveyard, big mana & combo based decks.
Btw I played Amulet for along time and Trophy will be amazing agaisnt them. I think several people here are assuming bad matchups without having really played it. An other example is Trophy vs Jund will be much better than decay. Raging ravine is a real problem and i'm not deciding whether my removal should be to kill Bob T2 or save for Ravine (assuming you only have push in hand and might draw a Decay later), I shoot the Bob on the spot and know that all my removal deals with Ravine anyways when he gets there.
Ramping, imo, is only dangerous vs Combo, Burn and card advantage decks with lots of threats (Bant spirits or Elves fit that description). The rest all become better matchups.
In BG decks, I would almost be tempted to play 4 Ghost quarters, E-Wit, Liliana the last hope and some number of Life From the Loam. Now you really get to mess with their lands and eventually they'll run out completely.
BGW - Abzan
Legacy
BG - BG Lands
You can't really compare the IOK/TS split with cards that affect board state. All discard spells are meant to be played early to disrupt the opponent, and usually people have a steady curve so there are good IOK targets. However, once we're in the midgame, the opponent is top decking, and has enought lands to cast any spell they draw, having broader removal spells is more important since you need to answer any large top deck. If anything, having more IOK makes Trophy more necessary since you've already taken their cheap cards and now need to answer their expensive threats. Also, IOK can nab instants and sorceries, which decay does not. This is why IOK feels fine against Jeskai where Decay can feel absolutely useless. It's okay if you don't agree with peoples split between cards. I'm just saying comparing hand disruption with permanent removal isn't an exact 1:1.
For hand disruption, I usually play a 3/3 split or a 4/3 IOK/TS split if I go up to seven (So basically always 3 Thoughtseize). I plan on playing all 4 Trophies and no Decays or Pulses unless I see a need to increase my removal suite.
To beat TRON, you need a clock. I never keep a hand without a T2 clock because we can have all the disruption we want but we'll never "prison lock" them out of the game and they eventually get enough lands and a threat that immediately overpowers us. The matchup will stay unfavorable, but the number of 7 card hands with 1 disruption and 1 clock greatly improve. Any hand with a combination of 2 lands, Goyf or flayer and stony or trophy is a hand that could win it.
This is where the Goyf/Grim flayer guys kick in and do work compared to Tireless Tracker and Tasigur. Without them, I agree with you that the matchup is kinda hopeless.
BGW - Abzan
Legacy
BG - BG Lands
I would have definately played Goyf instead of Bob in that spot. Goyf would have hit for 5 a turn, meaning he would have only 4 turns to recover from your trophy on his land. It's far from a guaranteed win, but I think it's your best bet. If he stumbles 2 turns before getting a threat on the battlefield you most likely win, but if he's a good TRON player he'll have the natural tron in hand with Karn (it feels as they always do) and there's nothing to do about that 97% of the time.
On the play, I always deploy my threat first and then disrupt. On the draw, it depends on whether I think he has it or not on T3 and wing it from there.
BGW - Abzan
Legacy
BG - BG Lands
Burn decks rarely seem to pack a Plains. Destroying their Sacred Foundry can be a tremendous help.
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
But it's only a 2-color deck. All their fetches are still gunning for R&W. It's not likely that Trophy will be locking any 2-color opponent out of a color. And even if you do lock them out of white, it only shuts down 8 cards from their main deck
Draft My Cube!
If you've seen their hand and know they're holding a white card, then it might be worth it to cut them off from white. I'll agree with that. Or if you need to kill an Eidolon when they're almost out of cards anyway ( so the ramp won't matter)
Draft My Cube!
So I recently started up my humble YouTube channel! My timing is predictably awful, since we've just entered the era of Trophy and the few videos I have all predate that, for now.
If anyone wants to check them out, I'd love your feedback, being new to all this stuff. (My audio is low quality, but I'll be upgrading that before too long.)
Deck Tech
BG Rock Mirror Match
BG Rock vs BW Tokens
(I checked the forum rules and this doesn't seem to qualify as soliciting. At this rate I'm still years away from monetization, lol. Just trying to spread the BGx love in all its forms!)
YouTube Channel, with deck techs, gameplay, analysis, spoiler reviews, and more!
Coolstuff man, will definitely take a look at these vids and report back. This will be very interesting for newcomers and beginning GBx players for sure.
EDIT: As a first point (and correct me if I missed it, I kinda scrolled through the vid a bit) I would mention the cost or consequence of replacing Bob with Tracker. I always keep getting back to this topic, because I think it is very important. Bob and Tracker do not occupy the same purpose and slot in the deck. So exchanging those two is not a freebe. It comes with a cost. Bob is an early game CA card but Tracker is a endgame Bomb. You said in the video that you play it as a 4 drop, like BBE. But you didn't say (again, correct me if I missed it) that Bob and Tracker can't therfore simply be exchanged unless you are fine by taking out some early game in favour of lategame power.
Thanks for taking a look, my friend, I truly appreciate it.
You’re right in that I didn’t discuss the pros and cons of Tracker vs Bob vs playing both together. I did mention early on that this is only one of several ways to build the deck; I also briefly mentioned the lack of Bob and how I still like him a lot in these sorts of decks, but this particular build eschews him; but I didn’t go any further into the topic than that. In retrospect, I could have delineated the variant Rock shells a little more clearly at the start and then pivoted to discussing in particular the one that I’ve been running. This has been (and will continue to be) very much a learn-as-I-go sort of process, lol!
YouTube Channel, with deck techs, gameplay, analysis, spoiler reviews, and more!
Other than that, another black fetchland seems like a good idea instead of 5th basic. I like it to have more often revolt. The list looks really good to me otherwise. Not sure if we need the decay but I guess its fine for testing.
Since the SB is a mess right now like you mentioned, I'll give it a few thoughts on my part:
I think we need some strong sweepers to deal with go-wide strategies since if Trophy impacts the format yet in the slightest, then go-wide strategies benefit from it. So I would start by playing 2 Damnation in the SB. I would also look for a third kind of sweeper additionally. But the problem is what to run, I think another 4 CMC sweeper is too much. Unfortunately EE is very unflexible in a 2 colour deck and Flaying Tendrils misses a tad too much probably. But it could still be worth it alongisde the 2 Damnations. Other options are Gaze of Granite (sol malka likes and plays this card) or Golgari Charm.
GY hate of some sort is of course obligatory, but the question remains whether we want Leylines or not. I think in either way, which is related but still seperate, we want Surgical due to the trophy + surgical synergy pretty much. Surgical is not a GY hate at first instance but it often occupies the same slots.
If we don't run the second LtLH in the main, then she should surely be in the SB in my opinion.
I really like Nissa, Vital Force as a bomb against other midrange decks and control decks. It could be an impactful 1-of in the SB. Also Choke is a potentially potent 1-of to hedge against Control. Not sure its worth it though.
Then I am not sure if and how many fulminators we want. We could also just play Damping Spheres, since they are more impactful against Tron and with trophy and surgical it could really shore up win% finally. But the control matchup would suffer by cutting Fulminators. However, again, for this reason Choke as a specific hate might be a good compromise.
What're your thoughts on Yahenni's Expertise as another sweeper option? It's a 4 CMC which doesn't fit one of the criteria you mentioned, but it fits the bill and the second effect could be a good tempo advantage to drop virtually any threat the deck has (Goyfs, either Lili, Trackers, etc.). I'm personally testing one in my SB b/c Spirits has been popular at my LGS and it helps skirt around Selfless Spirit.
B/G Rock BG | Jund BGR | Mardu Pyromancer BRW | Ponza RG | Burn RW