I’ve been playing Modern since just before Kaladesh—so probably way less time than most of you—and even I’ve seen a few iterations of “maybe this printing will make Sultai great again in Modern” (namely JtMS and Push). It never seems to quite work, namely because the color combination usually ends up being a pile of really strong cards that tend lack synergy.
However, maybe this time we really are seeing the printing that will put Sultai on the map. SaintDoom’s writeup, linked above, approaches the colors with a genuinely cohesive plan in mind. Maybe that will work, maybe it won’t; but even Sultai goodstuff is looking more appealing than ever. Trophy looks to be very abusable with Snapcaster.
So during last night’s Golgari games I encountered consistent mana issues for the first time, with several different opening hands rendered either much worse or unkeepable due to the density of monocolored lands, manlands, and/or Fields. My fourth Field came at the expense of Hoogland’s 5th Swamp. As great as basics are for the foreseeable future, I think I’d rather play a 5th fetchland or a Twilight Mire in that slot for now. Any thoughts?
Still, despite some mana issues, the strength of my results on this deck has blown me away. Remember my posts about tracking my Abzan winrate in the tournament practice lobby? I was clocking at at 74% after over 100 games. Not bad...but on this Hoogland-esque Golgari build I’m 20-2 in the same lobby so far. Lol. Time to play some real leagues I guess! Regardless, online and in testing against friends the deck feels amazing even without Trophy.
I doubt it although I suppose some analysis of why Sultai works in Legacy but not Modern could be useful. Personally I think its the strength of the counterspells and cantrips is so strong it simply goes beyond the anti synergy of BUG that lets it down in Modern. BG is strong. But UG is weak outside of Commander. UB is too often pigeonholed into Mill. And of course Leovold and Abrupt Decay get to shine. That is without looking at overall differences in the format.
There's a good chance that there are no changes on monday.
Agreed. Nothing in the format screaming "broken," I wouldn't be surprised to see nothing change. If anything, I think it would be targeted at Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings, but the decks utilizing those cards haven't been putting up oppressively large results to skew the format.
Also, with the new set coming up shortly I doubt they'll do anything drastic that might cause a shift in buying behavior.
And the reason those cards are played in Sultai instead of other color config is because of Abrupt Decay. (I understand they are also played in other colors too)
Trophy is now the reason to play BGx so it's up to us to figure out the best color compliment
I don't think Assassin's Trophy is that good now that I've played with it for a bit. I can safely say that there's a huge difference between an untapped land you're giving your opponent and a tapped land.
I really want to hear what Reid Duke thinks of the card since he isn’t the biggest fan of path. Has he said anything about it?
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Hey, none of us know for sure how the builds will pan out over time, but I’ll take a stab at defending Trophy as a 4-of. Quoting myself from the State of Modern thread:
Decay sees a lot of play in contemporary BGx decks (1-3 in Jund, 2-3 in Abzan, 2-4 in Rock) despite its limitation, because it’s a hell of a card. So, even a slightly upgrade to Decay would be big news. But here’s a list of relevant permanents that Trophy hits and Decay misses:
Jace
Teferi
Karn
Ugin
Wurmcoil Engine
Tronlands
Manlands
Azcanta, the Sunken Ruin
Thought-Knot Seer
Reality Smasher
Endbringer
Krark-Clan Ironworks
Primeval Titan (and all the other Titans)
Tasigur
Gurmag Angler
Hollow One
Stormbreath Dragon
Baneslayer Angel
Lyra Dawnbringer
Leylines
Worship
Infinite combo pieces like Felidar Guardian, Restoration Angel, Kiki-Jiki
Random 4-drop curve-topping value plays like Kalitas, Huntmaster of the Fells, and Chandra, Torch of Defiance
That’s just off the top of my head; I’m sure there are plenty I missed. In an “answers” deck like BGx, it cannot be overstated how powerful a catch-all inclusion like this will be. It’s downside is real, yes, but decklists playing the card will take that under consideration and mitigate it as best as possible.
Assassin’s Trophy is bonkers.
Adding to the list (and I’m sure I’ll have still missed some obvious ones), Street Wraith and various other Living End goons, Hive Mind, Master of Waves, The Antiquities War, Padeem, Batterskull, Koth and the rest of the Skred Red/Dragon Skred top end, Sphere of Safety and many other Enduring Ideal cards, Torrential Gearhulk, Witchbane Orb/Orbs of Warding, Shalai, new Karn, Platinum Emperion, Platinum Angel, Siege Rhino, Tezzeret, Gideon AoZ, Gideon Jura, Elspeths, etc etc.
Yeah, many of the cards mentioned on the above two lists are fringe cards—but many aren’t! And even so, the fringe cards still exist, and many of them exist precisely because the Modern format struggles to answer them immediately (or at all). With Trophy, we’re poised to be the most significant exception to that trend.
Consider also that this is not Path to Exile so far as play patterns are concerned. Trophy doesn’t replace our Fatal Pushes, it replaces different, narrower catch-all answers and/or different card types altogether. In other words, Path’s downside is more meaningful than Trophy’s due to its narrower application; and Trophy’s flexibility allows us more chances to sequence plays in such a way as to blunt the downside it brings.
I don’t think playing only 3 is unreasonable or anything; far from it. 3-of was actually my first inclination right off the bat. But now that the hype has died down, I wonder if people are starting to underrate the card, strange as that may sound.
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Rather than talk about any applications of Trophy you can think of, because there will be tons, but instead let's think about which actual tier decks it matters against, and how it compares to Abrupt Decay.
Against Humans, Vizier Combo, Elves & Spirits - Decay works just fine without giving them the extra land and ramping them into a Coco or other Mana-intensive plays. If they happen to play Worship post-board then Trophy would be significant.
Against Jund - Trophy handles manlands and BBE, which is relevant but also feel that not ramping them is relevant in this match-up. Personally I would want both for this match, leaning heavier on decay because it handles the scariest threats (LOTV, Bob, Tarmogoyf) without ramping them.
Against Tron - obviously Trophy is leagues better. Nothing more to be said. It's no substitute for Fulminator though IMHO. If you Trophy a land, they are still neutral on land count and can still realistically hard cast things like Wurmcoil and Thragtusk. I like to play LD against them.
Against UWx Control - Trophy takes care of some key cards that Decay misses, BUT the Counterspell protection is relevant enough that I would want both in this match-up. Decay still handles pre-flip SFA, Vendilion and Detention Sphere.
Against H1 and Bridge Vine - no reason to use Decay at all for these matches. (PTE is your main MVP here)
Infect - they have counterspells so again I would want both. Decay for Blighted Agent and Trophy for Inkmoth.
KCI - decay doesn't hit their main card so Trophy is certainly important. I'm not sure how difficult this match-up is for BGx anyways (feels extremely favored to me in Sultai and BG Rock)
Storm - Trophy is pointless here because they have counterspells and their only relevant perms are under 3 CMC anyways.
Re: Trophy assessment
I like Funeral's approach to this issue and think it's a productive way to decide on number of copies, removal ratios, sideboarding, and other important BGx decisions. It also helps us temper expectations relative to Abrupt Decay. Here's my take:
Humans: Decay is better
Decay is almost always better as it hits basically everything that Trophy does with no upside. The slight exception to this is a potential mana-denial angle if the opponent has already searched, played, or drawn their first/second basic, in which case we can Sinkhole some 5C lands. But that's very situational. Trophy also hits major corner-cases like Hostage Taker and stuff, but again, this isn't a major consideration. Trophy will be at its worst here in its inability to effectively answer Hierarch on the play.
UWx Control: Trophy is significantly better
Yes, Decay is uncounterable, which might suggest this card is better against UWx decks that run lots of countermagic. Unfortunately for Decay, it just doesn't hit a lot of relevant targets. Our only realistic hits are unflipped Search (a good hit), Snapcaster (yuck), and Clique (fine). You also hit Spheres if they run them (a great hit). But then you miss a ton of their best cards: Teferi, Jace, Colonnade, Azcanta, and Field of Ruin. The ability to answer JTMS/Teferi at instant-speed is particularly critical, as it forces UWx players into awkward scenarios where they have to either bet on their walkers surviving or delay their playing for numerous turns until they have countermagic backup. Colonnade killing is also key, as now you don't have to keep in awkward removal to kill creature lands that might never animate and are otherwise dead cards. Plus, you can also STILL hit Search/Snapcaster/Clique. The only disadvantage here is that ramping UWx is not trivial: control/midrange grinds can often be decided by mana advantage. Even so, the ability for Abzan and BG Rock to kill these cards at instant speed (Jund has Bolt/KCommand) is spectacular and redefines the matchup.
BGx mirror: Decay is better
This is a really critical case that pushes me to 3 MD Trophies instead of 4. With very few exceptions, Decay is going to hit everything that Trophy hits. The only exceptions are creaturelands (Ravine/Village/Vents/etc.), BBE herself, and the random curvetoppers like Huntmaster/Chandra/Rhino/etc. Of these, the scariest are the lands: creatures can be answered neatly by existing removal options or combat, unlike the lands which can hideout until our resources are depleted. Even so, there are significant downsides to Trophying a T2 Bob/Goyf/Flayer, and I wouldn't want our Trophy count to heavily pigeonhole us into that line. This mathcup is one of the main reasons I intend on keeping a 3/1/1 Trophy/Decay/Pulse split on Day 0.
Tron: Trophy is significantly better
It's so obvious there's not much to add. My only caution: be careful with ramping Tron to natural O-Stone activations, Wurmcoils, and Karns. Otherwise, have a blast.
KCI: Trophy is better
Although KCI plays countermagic, a) the countermagic is split between Guttural Response and Dispel/Song/blue options, and b) Trophy still hits more targets. The obvious target is KCI itself, which gives BGx players a huge new window to stop the combo if Trawlers comes down after KCI (just blow up KCI in response). The less obvious but very important targets are Fair and Ruin, which are two of KCI's secret strengths in establishing redundant wins over many turns. Sure, Decay can try and bust up the combo by hitting Trawler, but this really only works if Trawler comes down first and doesn't do anything to stop the mana engine itself. Even if KCI brings in countermagic, this still forces them to delay their combo at least a turn to get the Dispel mana, which gives us more time to win, get a discard spell, get GY hate, or otherwise enhance our position.
H1: Trophy is better
Decay misses three of the most important cards in this deck: H1 itself, Angler, and Tasigur. This means H1 can't get crazy openings where Decay is just a dead card. It's true that I would prefer Decay in the T1 Adept, T2 Lore line, but when Decay is sitting in your hand doing literally nothing but insulating you from Inquiry against a 2 boi board, Trophy feels much better.
Burn: Decay is better
I can't think of a viable card in Burn that traditional/performing lists play that Decay doesn't hit. Accelerating Burn can also be a disaster, especially if it's an untapped mana source they can use to Bolt you. Or worse, if played during combat before a land drop on Guide or something, accelerate Burn into a post-combat Eidolon when they otherwise would have been stuck with Spike. Yuck. That said, Trophy does give us a mana denial route on Burn's white/green mana, which will sometimes be relevant.
Hardened Scales: Even
This is a tough one. On the one hand, I don't like accelerating a deck that has XX spells to abuse the mana. In that regard, Decay is better as it hits most things without a downside: Trophying a Karn token feels particularly bad. On the other hand, Trophy has some significant upsides in hitting Karn himself and, most importantly, hitting Inkmoth/Blinkmoth. These lands are some of HS Affinity's best weapons against midrange and a great way to overload removal and hide +1/+1 counters. I think both have merits so I'm going with a tie here.
Spirits: Decay is significantly better
Remember how Trophy had some downsides to Decay in the Humans matchup? It's even worse here. By a lot. The mana denial plan isn't feasible because both Bant and UW run more basics than Humans. Spirits has literally zero non-land permanents that Decay misses and Trophy hits. Moreover, and this is what really makes Trophy bad, Spirits runs BOTH maindeck and sideboarded countermagic. Mausoleum Wanderer is a significant threat to Trophy and it just gets worse after SB with Unified Will. More reasons why this card is bad? Collected Company. A T2 or T3 (on their turn) Trophy (T2 on the draw) ramps Bant Spirits to a T3 Company, which is not a card we want to see sooner rather than later. More reasons? Spirits also has the Humans Hierarch issue and Rattlechains gives Spirits more opportunities to use untapped mana. Blah. Overall, this is a matchup where I'd definitely want more Decays than Trophies, but because it's just one of many decks in Modern, I probably wouldn't cut Trophies for Decays at the expense of the other more important matchups.
Storm: Decay is significantly better
Not much to add here either. This is not only another deck with zero commonly played cards that Decay misses, but it has a ton of basics and plays SB countermagic. It also really takes advantage of ramped mana, which is its primary bottleneck on most turns. Inadvertent ramping creates bad scenarios where Storm can generate massive mana advantages even with a removal spell on the stack, or just get enough lands to win off storm=5 Empties. Storm also has a similar payoff card to Company in Gifts: a T2 or T3 (your turn) Trophy on the play or T2 on the draw will ramp to that earlier Gifts which is not what we want to be enabing.
I think that covers the tiered decks. Overall, that leaves us 5 matchups where Decay is better, 1 where it's even, and 3 where Trophy is better. This actually surprised me but doesn't change my mind. Here's why: we might think this leads us towards a more even 2/2 split on Trophy/Decay because Decay shines brighter in more matchups, but this isn't quite accurate. When Trophy is bad, it's mostly just disappointing and not actively harmful (except probably Bant Spirits). When Decay is bad, it's really, REALLY bad and is basically a dead card: see Tron, H1, and UWx Control. And honestly, even though Trophy is very bad against Bant Spirits, it still does something there, unlike Decay in the Tron matchup.
All of this keeps me on the 3/1/1 Trophy/Decay/Pulse plan.
Every deck pretty much runs at least one basic, and giving them the first basic is always the worst pretty much. So In my mind it doesn't matter much if they run 2 or 4 basic.
I agree with 3 trophies, but am unsure about the rest. I can see all of 1-2 decay and 0-1 Pulse.
Spirits might be the deck where we actually actively want decay to have.
Some lists are starting to run accelerants to get them to 4 Mana ASAP and start durdling with Cryptics and get closer to hard casting terminus (if needed). In these cases, Trophy ends up being detrimental over decay say vs. Search for Azcanta.
Also, from trolling the UW forums it sounds like lots of users are looking at increasing the # of Spell Snares to combat Trophy in the mid-late game (sandbagging Teferi for another turn).
In this particular match up, we need to disrupt and clock them, but Trophy doesn't enable that. Just food for thought.
When Trophy is bad, it's mostly just disappointing and not actively harmful (except probably Bant Spirits). When Decay is bad, it's really, REALLY bad and is basically a dead card: see Tron, H1, and UWx Control. And honestly, even though Trophy is very bad against Bant Spirits, it still does something there, unlike Decay in the Tron matchup.
I find this assessment wrong. When Trophy is bad, it's stuck in your hand since casting it does more harm than good because your opponent missed a couple of land drops or require another land drop so they could get to their top end and you're ramping your opponent. Alternatively, you cast it and you lose the game because your opponent now has more resources unlike path where they get a delayed land drop if you cast it at any step of their turn.
Trophy never has to ramp an opponent. In its absolute worst mode, Trophy targets a nonbasic land and cycles it for a basic land. This actually makes it harder for an opponent to make a land drop, as it removes a live draw from their deck. It also could create a color screw. You will rarely, if ever, encounter a tiered Modern matchup where Trophy has literally no targets in play. Decay frequently has this problem where it can't target anything at all. As for combat-step ramping, we already know this can be a problem: I explicitly called this out as a risk in the Burn matchup, for instance. The slot versatility is still almost always going to be worth it, because now we have a removal spell that both kills a T3 5/5 Mantis Rider and kills a T2 Urza's Tower.
Trophy is really just another conditional removal and I don't think you should play more than 2 copies of this in your 60 pretty much.
This is likely incorrect. BGx decks play way more than 2 copies of their creature removal spells, which are effectively conditional removal in a format as diverse as Modern. Something like Push, which we can all basically agree is a card we want 3+ copies of, is completely dead against Tron, 98% dead against Titanshift, largely dead against KCI and UWx Control, and merely meh against H1. Despite that, basically every list still runs 3+. Same with Lily, a card that is a very unwelcome draw/topdeck against many of Modern's most aggressive decks like Humans, Burn, Bridgevine, H1, HS Affinity, Spirits, etc. And yet, again, we still run 3+ in basically all lists. Trophy's dead mode is so much rarer than creature removal or Lily.
It also won't make Tron or UWx matchup favorable for BGx midrange decks no matter how many copies of this you play in your 60. It'll help much more in postboard games against UWx because you'll have more slots, mainly for discard, cutting some amount of fulminators. Targeted discard like Duress is way better against UW compared to Trophy, hitting the payoffs in their hand before they get to play them. Extra sweepers in the board should also help against decks like spirits/humans/elves. Trophy basically reduces the Tron/Valakut Tax in your board but your valakut matchup might still end up being worse because of it.
We don't use Trophy to make the matchups favorable. We use it to make the matchups MORE favorable. You can't maindeck Mage or Duress in Modern, so Trophy becomes a catchall hedge in G1. As a comparison, someone like Fallleaf is running 3 Thoughtseize in basically every one of his MTGO lists. This is true even though TS is a card we frequently board out against the huge subset of aggressive Modern decks, where it is actively harmful. Trophy is just another type of TS effect.
I do not envision a Day 0 of the new Modern where it is correct to run fewer than 3 Trophies. I can see metagame shifts happening by December that make it better to run 2 instead of 3, but that is not the case right now.
I would also not go below 3 copies yet. One simple reason might also be that if you play fewer copies, you will see less copies of it and thus can't test the card in action as often. For the pure sake of testing the card out it is already worth it to run 3+.
Rather than talk about any applications of Trophy you can think of, because there will be tons, but instead let's think about which actual tier decks it matters against, and how it compares to Abrupt Decay.
I know that listing as many relevant CMC 4+ non-indestructible permanents as I can think of doesn’t tell the whole story; that was more a reminder of the scope and breadth of Modern’s variety. Some people (not really anyone ITT) have expressed an attitude along the lines of “almost every relevant target is CMC 3 or less anyway”, and it’s useful to bear in mind just how crazy Modern can get in terms of what cards see play.
Now, I do agree with you completely that it’s necessary to compare Trophy’s impact on various matchups with that of its closest competitors. @ktkenshinx did a great job on that front. If we dig a little deeper down the tier list, we find the following decks:
Mardu Pyromancer
There’s only one target that Decay misses but Trophy hits, but it’s a big one: Bedlam Reveler. Most of my own losses to the deck seem to have come at the hands of a Reveler, which not only breaks the symmetry of card advantage but also closes the game out—and the latter half of that statement is important. BGx decks are capable of clawing their way back into the game even after a Reveler lands, but not if they can’t answer it quickly. I’d also say that ramping Mardu via Trophy doesn’t feel too bad for a variety of reasons (their advantage coming more from a resolved Pyro + spell density more than curving out, their increased likelihood to fetch basics due to their own Moons, etc), but admittedly that all goes out the window if you’re in a spot where you’re using an Ooze or something to try keeping them off of Reveler mana. Tough call overall—but Trophy remains our only card outside of white that can answer both Pyromancer and Reveler ASAP, so I’d give it the nod.
Bogles
The Bogles mana base can be clunky and awkward; it’s actually sort of greedy for a 2c deck, between naturally drawing Dryad Arbor, the WW for Coronet, the low land count, and the pain from Canopies. So ramping them feels fairly bad even though they’re likely on just 3 basics, especially since Decay cleanly takes care of Spiritdancer and every Aura. However, Trophy gives us a strong chance of a maindeck out to their maindeck Leylines of Sanctity, which is obviously of enormous import given the absurd strength of LoTV against their strategy. Trophy’s CMC of 2 is also a nice upgrade to Pulse (unless they opened on 2 Leylines lol—and even then they might sandbag one) if our plan is to remove their Leyline ASAP and start firing off discard spells. Finally, Trophy can answer Dryad Arbor if they’re in a position where they have to start suiting it up—which is not uncommon. Trophy is the clear winner.
Ad Nauseam
This one actually mirrors Bogles to a strange degree, given how different the two decks are. Decay is already strong against both, and ramping them is a significant price to pay, but the huge difference maker is the ability to hit Leylines. Discard is the most powerful form of interaction against Ad Naus—leaning on permanent removal doesn’t help against Grace into AN—and once more, Trophy lets us pop the Leyline T2 and start discarding T3, and against this opponent those discard spells will still be very, very good at that stage of the game. Another minor note: these decks only ever play 1 Island and 1 Plains for basics, so occasionally it might be realistic to use Trophy to keep them off BB for their signature spell, although it would have to be an unusual game for that to pan out. Still, from the Ad Naus perspective it’s almost Leyline or bust post-side against BGx, so on the strength of Trophy being able to answer their best card, I’d say it’s the clear favorite.
Amulet Titan
Helping to ramp the ramp deck sucks; no getting around that! Still, Trophy answers the Titan itself. It also answers Zapalta, Ruric Thar, and whatever other monstrous goons they have floating around in their 75, and it also takes care of Hive Mind if they’ve got that in as an alternate win condition. As dedicated players, we’re always looking for the most efficient lines and carefully weighing the costs and downsides of every inclusion, but I feel like this is the sort of matchup that illustrates exactly why Trophy is an insanely powerful Magic card, and it’s for the most obvious reason. Point it at the payoff cards and they die. Advantage: Trophy.
Grixis Shadow
Now this one’s a little tricky. Lots of factors to consider. On the one hand, there’s not much that feels better than taking care of their only Shadow with an uncounterable Decay while the opponent is obviously holding up Stubborn Denial. On the other hand, the Decay could just as easily be dead in hand while you’re getting beaten to death by the Delve threats. This is a matchup where our Goyfs can easily wind up outsizing the opposing Anglers, however, while Shadows...not so much. Lots of moving pieces to consider. I’ve seem some pro players, while siding against Shadow, say things like “I don’t want to leave in too many spells that only kill Shadows”. It’s possible that just leaning on Push and Trophy here is enough—even if Push gets countered, it’s still a neutral exchange on tempo and cards. Grixis Shadow’s manabase is also notoriously fragile, so a Field-heavy draw could easily see Trophy apply the finishing touch as far as keeping them off a color goes. I’m leaning toward Trophy here as well, guys.
All that said, I’m still angling to fit a Decay in the 75. The card remains great! Some people have mentioned the 3/1/1 Trophy/Decay/Pulse split. I want 4/1/1, with a second Pulse in the side. We’ll see if that ends up being tenable.
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It seems like we all forgot that many modern decks don't even run all that many basic lands (data from mtggoldfish).
Humans is on 2 basics
Burn is on 3 basics
Bant Spirits is on 3 basics
Hollow One is on 4 basics (when even being a 2 color deck!)
Storm is on 3 basics
Most BGx decks are on 4 basics, excluding BG Rock
The point I'm trying to make is that they sometimes naturally draw their basics or fetch actively for them. Making the draw back of Trophy sometimes less relevant the more copies you play. Obviously I expect the meta to adjust and play more basics if Trophy is a 4-off in every BGx deck.
This is pretty shortsighted as i think the new modern meta will adept to cards like this. I.e. make decks run more basics and be more aware of the casting restrictions of spells.
I've played the extra Island in humans when path became more popular again and trophy will be even worse for us humans players.
In Abzan i'm allready on three basics, but we have to arm ourselfs for the "upside" of facing Trophy too.
I think traverse will become more popular for its fixing ability too.
Another thing that has struck me about this card is that it's just so very powerfull, WotC must be planning to put something new, or something powerful back into modern that warants an answer like this. Twin or SfM spring to mind.
You guys are really focusing on citing the best case scenarios and not actual situations where you can't use the card tbh.
Trophy is more or less unplayable against Valakut, Burn and Storm. Similiar to how path is almost unplayable in these matchups in Abzan.
E.g. 1. When affinity plays and equips Cranial Plating, you'll fire it off on it to not take 5-10 extra damage and they'd still get to use the land on their 2nd main phase. Ramping isn't "optional", you always ramp except when you fire it on a nonbasic and you'll rarely get to fire it off on a nonbasic.
E.g. 2. When you fire it off eot against Infect when they're tapped out, they'd still get an extra land to protect their other threats during your turn. Even if you sequence this differently and fire Trophy on your turn, they'd still get an extra land and another card in the graveyard on their turn for pump spells unless you've killed exactly an Inkmoth Nexus where in that situation, they don't get the extra land. So yea, you gave them 2 different type of resources by killing one of their threats, delve fodder and an extra mana to spend on their turn while you are likely tapped out.
E.g. 3. Against Ad Nauseam, would you fire it off on Pentad Prism just to cut them off a single extra mana? Decay or any other artifact removal does its job here and Trophy is stuck in your hand in the same situation because it just doesn't have an impact. Killing Leyline with Golgari Charm instead of Trophy is miles better since they're not 1 step closer to combo off when they untap and discard spells in your hand might just not be enough to keep them off combo next turn now that you've ramped them. Similiarly, Trophy isn't ideal to fire off on Lotus Bloom either.
E.g. 4. Trophy is solid against Boogles, unless they've kept a greedy 1 lander with a hand full of action and you just gave them what they needed to run away with the game, hitting their leyline so they can empty out their hand after you've cast a discard spell or two.
Against GDS, do you think you'll get to fire it off on a nonbasic in an attirition match? Your first Trophy won't cut them off colors unless they only have 1 red source(they got basic Swamp&Island). Will cutting them off red matter? I don't think so because the cards they keep in their deck postboard are mostly blue and black(they are likely to side out TBR, wraith and looting)when playing against any GBx midrange deck except kcommand, bolts, pyromancer and maybe staticaster against souls and that's mostly 5-6 red cards pretty much. You're not realistically cutting them off blue or black and they'll fetch for 2 red sources if they're playing against a trophy deck. Pyromancer is also a possibility post board but it's rare at this point.
So I don't think Trophy is good against leylines since I don't think it's a spell you want to fire off on T1-3 and even T4 if your opponent missed a land drop tbh. That's why I'm suggesting 2 copies instead of 3 but 3rd copy can have a slot in the board against Tron and H1 or other similiar decks where it's playable on T2.
3 TS is reasonable in Abzan Traverse, Leonardo played 3-3 split with his GP Sao Paulo top8'ing list. Like I've cut 3rd copy from my list just because I added a Bob to my 60. If midrange decks were able to manage aggro & gy aggro decks more efficiently, everyone would still be on 3 Thoughtseizes since it's still good against most of the format, hitting a ton of problematic cards like CoCo even from aggro decks. Jund has to cut 3rd copy because of bob. BG Rock can play 3 copies without bob. I also don't think Trophy is nowhere near TS level of an answer tbh.
I also don't think WotC will unban anything. I think they printed it against some busted things in the format like H1, delve threats and urza lands. They needed to print good answers anyway after printing just threats for a while now. I expect 1 more similiar power level answer printed for Orzhov colors in near future, something along the lines of BW, instant, exile target nonland permanent, your opponent gets a tapped basic, a card similiar to Vindicate, Anguished Unmaking, Path and Trophy.
Again, we can do this exact same analysis for dead modes on Push, Path, Lily, and TS, all of which routinely see 3+ copies. The average Trophy is still way better than the average Decay in more matchups. The below average Trophies are still often find. Bad Trophy is admittedly very bad, but it's generally just as bad as bad Decay, bad TS, bad Push, etc.
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However, maybe this time we really are seeing the printing that will put Sultai on the map. SaintDoom’s writeup, linked above, approaches the colors with a genuinely cohesive plan in mind. Maybe that will work, maybe it won’t; but even Sultai goodstuff is looking more appealing than ever. Trophy looks to be very abusable with Snapcaster.
So during last night’s Golgari games I encountered consistent mana issues for the first time, with several different opening hands rendered either much worse or unkeepable due to the density of monocolored lands, manlands, and/or Fields. My fourth Field came at the expense of Hoogland’s 5th Swamp. As great as basics are for the foreseeable future, I think I’d rather play a 5th fetchland or a Twilight Mire in that slot for now. Any thoughts?
Still, despite some mana issues, the strength of my results on this deck has blown me away. Remember my posts about tracking my Abzan winrate in the tournament practice lobby? I was clocking at at 74% after over 100 games. Not bad...but on this Hoogland-esque Golgari build I’m 20-2 in the same lobby so far. Lol. Time to play some real leagues I guess! Regardless, online and in testing against friends the deck feels amazing even without Trophy.
YouTube Channel, with deck techs, gameplay, analysis, spoiler reviews, and more!
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Agreed. Nothing in the format screaming "broken," I wouldn't be surprised to see nothing change. If anything, I think it would be targeted at Faithless Looting and Ancient Stirrings, but the decks utilizing those cards haven't been putting up oppressively large results to skew the format.
Also, with the new set coming up shortly I doubt they'll do anything drastic that might cause a shift in buying behavior.
B/G Rock BG | Jund BGR | Mardu Pyromancer BRW | Ponza RG | Burn RW
And the reason those cards are played in Sultai instead of other color config is because of Abrupt Decay. (I understand they are also played in other colors too)
Trophy is now the reason to play BGx so it's up to us to figure out the best color compliment
Draft My Cube!
I really want to hear what Reid Duke thinks of the card since he isn’t the biggest fan of path. Has he said anything about it?
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
For that you need 3 copies then. Thats the rule of thumb. If you wanna have a card once per game on average, run 3 copies of it.
Adding to the list (and I’m sure I’ll have still missed some obvious ones), Street Wraith and various other Living End goons, Hive Mind, Master of Waves, The Antiquities War, Padeem, Batterskull, Koth and the rest of the Skred Red/Dragon Skred top end, Sphere of Safety and many other Enduring Ideal cards, Torrential Gearhulk, Witchbane Orb/Orbs of Warding, Shalai, new Karn, Platinum Emperion, Platinum Angel, Siege Rhino, Tezzeret, Gideon AoZ, Gideon Jura, Elspeths, etc etc.
Yeah, many of the cards mentioned on the above two lists are fringe cards—but many aren’t! And even so, the fringe cards still exist, and many of them exist precisely because the Modern format struggles to answer them immediately (or at all). With Trophy, we’re poised to be the most significant exception to that trend.
Consider also that this is not Path to Exile so far as play patterns are concerned. Trophy doesn’t replace our Fatal Pushes, it replaces different, narrower catch-all answers and/or different card types altogether. In other words, Path’s downside is more meaningful than Trophy’s due to its narrower application; and Trophy’s flexibility allows us more chances to sequence plays in such a way as to blunt the downside it brings.
I don’t think playing only 3 is unreasonable or anything; far from it. 3-of was actually my first inclination right off the bat. But now that the hype has died down, I wonder if people are starting to underrate the card, strange as that may sound.
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Against Humans, Vizier Combo, Elves & Spirits - Decay works just fine without giving them the extra land and ramping them into a Coco or other Mana-intensive plays. If they happen to play Worship post-board then Trophy would be significant.
Against Jund - Trophy handles manlands and BBE, which is relevant but also feel that not ramping them is relevant in this match-up. Personally I would want both for this match, leaning heavier on decay because it handles the scariest threats (LOTV, Bob, Tarmogoyf) without ramping them.
Against Tron - obviously Trophy is leagues better. Nothing more to be said. It's no substitute for Fulminator though IMHO. If you Trophy a land, they are still neutral on land count and can still realistically hard cast things like Wurmcoil and Thragtusk. I like to play LD against them.
Against UWx Control - Trophy takes care of some key cards that Decay misses, BUT the Counterspell protection is relevant enough that I would want both in this match-up. Decay still handles pre-flip SFA, Vendilion and Detention Sphere.
Against H1 and Bridge Vine - no reason to use Decay at all for these matches. (PTE is your main MVP here)
Infect - they have counterspells so again I would want both. Decay for Blighted Agent and Trophy for Inkmoth.
KCI - decay doesn't hit their main card so Trophy is certainly important. I'm not sure how difficult this match-up is for BGx anyways (feels extremely favored to me in Sultai and BG Rock)
Storm - Trophy is pointless here because they have counterspells and their only relevant perms are under 3 CMC anyways.
Any other tier archetypes I'm forgetting?
Draft My Cube!
I like Funeral's approach to this issue and think it's a productive way to decide on number of copies, removal ratios, sideboarding, and other important BGx decisions. It also helps us temper expectations relative to Abrupt Decay. Here's my take:
Humans: Decay is better
Decay is almost always better as it hits basically everything that Trophy does with no upside. The slight exception to this is a potential mana-denial angle if the opponent has already searched, played, or drawn their first/second basic, in which case we can Sinkhole some 5C lands. But that's very situational. Trophy also hits major corner-cases like Hostage Taker and stuff, but again, this isn't a major consideration. Trophy will be at its worst here in its inability to effectively answer Hierarch on the play.
UWx Control: Trophy is significantly better
Yes, Decay is uncounterable, which might suggest this card is better against UWx decks that run lots of countermagic. Unfortunately for Decay, it just doesn't hit a lot of relevant targets. Our only realistic hits are unflipped Search (a good hit), Snapcaster (yuck), and Clique (fine). You also hit Spheres if they run them (a great hit). But then you miss a ton of their best cards: Teferi, Jace, Colonnade, Azcanta, and Field of Ruin. The ability to answer JTMS/Teferi at instant-speed is particularly critical, as it forces UWx players into awkward scenarios where they have to either bet on their walkers surviving or delay their playing for numerous turns until they have countermagic backup. Colonnade killing is also key, as now you don't have to keep in awkward removal to kill creature lands that might never animate and are otherwise dead cards. Plus, you can also STILL hit Search/Snapcaster/Clique. The only disadvantage here is that ramping UWx is not trivial: control/midrange grinds can often be decided by mana advantage. Even so, the ability for Abzan and BG Rock to kill these cards at instant speed (Jund has Bolt/KCommand) is spectacular and redefines the matchup.
BGx mirror: Decay is better
This is a really critical case that pushes me to 3 MD Trophies instead of 4. With very few exceptions, Decay is going to hit everything that Trophy hits. The only exceptions are creaturelands (Ravine/Village/Vents/etc.), BBE herself, and the random curvetoppers like Huntmaster/Chandra/Rhino/etc. Of these, the scariest are the lands: creatures can be answered neatly by existing removal options or combat, unlike the lands which can hideout until our resources are depleted. Even so, there are significant downsides to Trophying a T2 Bob/Goyf/Flayer, and I wouldn't want our Trophy count to heavily pigeonhole us into that line. This mathcup is one of the main reasons I intend on keeping a 3/1/1 Trophy/Decay/Pulse split on Day 0.
Tron: Trophy is significantly better
It's so obvious there's not much to add. My only caution: be careful with ramping Tron to natural O-Stone activations, Wurmcoils, and Karns. Otherwise, have a blast.
KCI: Trophy is better
Although KCI plays countermagic, a) the countermagic is split between Guttural Response and Dispel/Song/blue options, and b) Trophy still hits more targets. The obvious target is KCI itself, which gives BGx players a huge new window to stop the combo if Trawlers comes down after KCI (just blow up KCI in response). The less obvious but very important targets are Fair and Ruin, which are two of KCI's secret strengths in establishing redundant wins over many turns. Sure, Decay can try and bust up the combo by hitting Trawler, but this really only works if Trawler comes down first and doesn't do anything to stop the mana engine itself. Even if KCI brings in countermagic, this still forces them to delay their combo at least a turn to get the Dispel mana, which gives us more time to win, get a discard spell, get GY hate, or otherwise enhance our position.
H1: Trophy is better
Decay misses three of the most important cards in this deck: H1 itself, Angler, and Tasigur. This means H1 can't get crazy openings where Decay is just a dead card. It's true that I would prefer Decay in the T1 Adept, T2 Lore line, but when Decay is sitting in your hand doing literally nothing but insulating you from Inquiry against a 2 boi board, Trophy feels much better.
Burn: Decay is better
I can't think of a viable card in Burn that traditional/performing lists play that Decay doesn't hit. Accelerating Burn can also be a disaster, especially if it's an untapped mana source they can use to Bolt you. Or worse, if played during combat before a land drop on Guide or something, accelerate Burn into a post-combat Eidolon when they otherwise would have been stuck with Spike. Yuck. That said, Trophy does give us a mana denial route on Burn's white/green mana, which will sometimes be relevant.
Hardened Scales: Even
This is a tough one. On the one hand, I don't like accelerating a deck that has XX spells to abuse the mana. In that regard, Decay is better as it hits most things without a downside: Trophying a Karn token feels particularly bad. On the other hand, Trophy has some significant upsides in hitting Karn himself and, most importantly, hitting Inkmoth/Blinkmoth. These lands are some of HS Affinity's best weapons against midrange and a great way to overload removal and hide +1/+1 counters. I think both have merits so I'm going with a tie here.
Spirits: Decay is significantly better
Remember how Trophy had some downsides to Decay in the Humans matchup? It's even worse here. By a lot. The mana denial plan isn't feasible because both Bant and UW run more basics than Humans. Spirits has literally zero non-land permanents that Decay misses and Trophy hits. Moreover, and this is what really makes Trophy bad, Spirits runs BOTH maindeck and sideboarded countermagic. Mausoleum Wanderer is a significant threat to Trophy and it just gets worse after SB with Unified Will. More reasons why this card is bad? Collected Company. A T2 or T3 (on their turn) Trophy (T2 on the draw) ramps Bant Spirits to a T3 Company, which is not a card we want to see sooner rather than later. More reasons? Spirits also has the Humans Hierarch issue and Rattlechains gives Spirits more opportunities to use untapped mana. Blah. Overall, this is a matchup where I'd definitely want more Decays than Trophies, but because it's just one of many decks in Modern, I probably wouldn't cut Trophies for Decays at the expense of the other more important matchups.
Storm: Decay is significantly better
Not much to add here either. This is not only another deck with zero commonly played cards that Decay misses, but it has a ton of basics and plays SB countermagic. It also really takes advantage of ramped mana, which is its primary bottleneck on most turns. Inadvertent ramping creates bad scenarios where Storm can generate massive mana advantages even with a removal spell on the stack, or just get enough lands to win off storm=5 Empties. Storm also has a similar payoff card to Company in Gifts: a T2 or T3 (your turn) Trophy on the play or T2 on the draw will ramp to that earlier Gifts which is not what we want to be enabing.
I think that covers the tiered decks. Overall, that leaves us 5 matchups where Decay is better, 1 where it's even, and 3 where Trophy is better. This actually surprised me but doesn't change my mind. Here's why: we might think this leads us towards a more even 2/2 split on Trophy/Decay because Decay shines brighter in more matchups, but this isn't quite accurate. When Trophy is bad, it's mostly just disappointing and not actively harmful (except probably Bant Spirits). When Decay is bad, it's really, REALLY bad and is basically a dead card: see Tron, H1, and UWx Control. And honestly, even though Trophy is very bad against Bant Spirits, it still does something there, unlike Decay in the Tron matchup.
All of this keeps me on the 3/1/1 Trophy/Decay/Pulse plan.
I agree with 3 trophies, but am unsure about the rest. I can see all of 1-2 decay and 0-1 Pulse.
Spirits might be the deck where we actually actively want decay to have.
https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/tuning-the-best-deck-in-modern-u-w-control/
Some lists are starting to run accelerants to get them to 4 Mana ASAP and start durdling with Cryptics and get closer to hard casting terminus (if needed). In these cases, Trophy ends up being detrimental over decay say vs. Search for Azcanta.
Also, from trolling the UW forums it sounds like lots of users are looking at increasing the # of Spell Snares to combat Trophy in the mid-late game (sandbagging Teferi for another turn).
In this particular match up, we need to disrupt and clock them, but Trophy doesn't enable that. Just food for thought.
B/G Rock BG | Jund BGR | Mardu Pyromancer BRW | Ponza RG | Burn RW
Trophy never has to ramp an opponent. In its absolute worst mode, Trophy targets a nonbasic land and cycles it for a basic land. This actually makes it harder for an opponent to make a land drop, as it removes a live draw from their deck. It also could create a color screw. You will rarely, if ever, encounter a tiered Modern matchup where Trophy has literally no targets in play. Decay frequently has this problem where it can't target anything at all. As for combat-step ramping, we already know this can be a problem: I explicitly called this out as a risk in the Burn matchup, for instance. The slot versatility is still almost always going to be worth it, because now we have a removal spell that both kills a T3 5/5 Mantis Rider and kills a T2 Urza's Tower.
This is likely incorrect. BGx decks play way more than 2 copies of their creature removal spells, which are effectively conditional removal in a format as diverse as Modern. Something like Push, which we can all basically agree is a card we want 3+ copies of, is completely dead against Tron, 98% dead against Titanshift, largely dead against KCI and UWx Control, and merely meh against H1. Despite that, basically every list still runs 3+. Same with Lily, a card that is a very unwelcome draw/topdeck against many of Modern's most aggressive decks like Humans, Burn, Bridgevine, H1, HS Affinity, Spirits, etc. And yet, again, we still run 3+ in basically all lists. Trophy's dead mode is so much rarer than creature removal or Lily.
We don't use Trophy to make the matchups favorable. We use it to make the matchups MORE favorable. You can't maindeck Mage or Duress in Modern, so Trophy becomes a catchall hedge in G1. As a comparison, someone like Fallleaf is running 3 Thoughtseize in basically every one of his MTGO lists. This is true even though TS is a card we frequently board out against the huge subset of aggressive Modern decks, where it is actively harmful. Trophy is just another type of TS effect.
I do not envision a Day 0 of the new Modern where it is correct to run fewer than 3 Trophies. I can see metagame shifts happening by December that make it better to run 2 instead of 3, but that is not the case right now.
I know that listing as many relevant CMC 4+ non-indestructible permanents as I can think of doesn’t tell the whole story; that was more a reminder of the scope and breadth of Modern’s variety. Some people (not really anyone ITT) have expressed an attitude along the lines of “almost every relevant target is CMC 3 or less anyway”, and it’s useful to bear in mind just how crazy Modern can get in terms of what cards see play.
Now, I do agree with you completely that it’s necessary to compare Trophy’s impact on various matchups with that of its closest competitors. @ktkenshinx did a great job on that front. If we dig a little deeper down the tier list, we find the following decks:
Mardu Pyromancer
There’s only one target that Decay misses but Trophy hits, but it’s a big one: Bedlam Reveler. Most of my own losses to the deck seem to have come at the hands of a Reveler, which not only breaks the symmetry of card advantage but also closes the game out—and the latter half of that statement is important. BGx decks are capable of clawing their way back into the game even after a Reveler lands, but not if they can’t answer it quickly. I’d also say that ramping Mardu via Trophy doesn’t feel too bad for a variety of reasons (their advantage coming more from a resolved Pyro + spell density more than curving out, their increased likelihood to fetch basics due to their own Moons, etc), but admittedly that all goes out the window if you’re in a spot where you’re using an Ooze or something to try keeping them off of Reveler mana. Tough call overall—but Trophy remains our only card outside of white that can answer both Pyromancer and Reveler ASAP, so I’d give it the nod.
Bogles
The Bogles mana base can be clunky and awkward; it’s actually sort of greedy for a 2c deck, between naturally drawing Dryad Arbor, the WW for Coronet, the low land count, and the pain from Canopies. So ramping them feels fairly bad even though they’re likely on just 3 basics, especially since Decay cleanly takes care of Spiritdancer and every Aura. However, Trophy gives us a strong chance of a maindeck out to their maindeck Leylines of Sanctity, which is obviously of enormous import given the absurd strength of LoTV against their strategy. Trophy’s CMC of 2 is also a nice upgrade to Pulse (unless they opened on 2 Leylines lol—and even then they might sandbag one) if our plan is to remove their Leyline ASAP and start firing off discard spells. Finally, Trophy can answer Dryad Arbor if they’re in a position where they have to start suiting it up—which is not uncommon. Trophy is the clear winner.
Ad Nauseam
This one actually mirrors Bogles to a strange degree, given how different the two decks are. Decay is already strong against both, and ramping them is a significant price to pay, but the huge difference maker is the ability to hit Leylines. Discard is the most powerful form of interaction against Ad Naus—leaning on permanent removal doesn’t help against Grace into AN—and once more, Trophy lets us pop the Leyline T2 and start discarding T3, and against this opponent those discard spells will still be very, very good at that stage of the game. Another minor note: these decks only ever play 1 Island and 1 Plains for basics, so occasionally it might be realistic to use Trophy to keep them off BB for their signature spell, although it would have to be an unusual game for that to pan out. Still, from the Ad Naus perspective it’s almost Leyline or bust post-side against BGx, so on the strength of Trophy being able to answer their best card, I’d say it’s the clear favorite.
Amulet Titan
Helping to ramp the ramp deck sucks; no getting around that! Still, Trophy answers the Titan itself. It also answers Zapalta, Ruric Thar, and whatever other monstrous goons they have floating around in their 75, and it also takes care of Hive Mind if they’ve got that in as an alternate win condition. As dedicated players, we’re always looking for the most efficient lines and carefully weighing the costs and downsides of every inclusion, but I feel like this is the sort of matchup that illustrates exactly why Trophy is an insanely powerful Magic card, and it’s for the most obvious reason. Point it at the payoff cards and they die. Advantage: Trophy.
Grixis Shadow
Now this one’s a little tricky. Lots of factors to consider. On the one hand, there’s not much that feels better than taking care of their only Shadow with an uncounterable Decay while the opponent is obviously holding up Stubborn Denial. On the other hand, the Decay could just as easily be dead in hand while you’re getting beaten to death by the Delve threats. This is a matchup where our Goyfs can easily wind up outsizing the opposing Anglers, however, while Shadows...not so much. Lots of moving pieces to consider. I’ve seem some pro players, while siding against Shadow, say things like “I don’t want to leave in too many spells that only kill Shadows”. It’s possible that just leaning on Push and Trophy here is enough—even if Push gets countered, it’s still a neutral exchange on tempo and cards. Grixis Shadow’s manabase is also notoriously fragile, so a Field-heavy draw could easily see Trophy apply the finishing touch as far as keeping them off a color goes. I’m leaning toward Trophy here as well, guys.
All that said, I’m still angling to fit a Decay in the 75. The card remains great! Some people have mentioned the 3/1/1 Trophy/Decay/Pulse split. I want 4/1/1, with a second Pulse in the side. We’ll see if that ends up being tenable.
YouTube Channel, with deck techs, gameplay, analysis, spoiler reviews, and more!
This is pretty shortsighted as i think the new modern meta will adept to cards like this. I.e. make decks run more basics and be more aware of the casting restrictions of spells.
I've played the extra Island in humans when path became more popular again and trophy will be even worse for us humans players.
In Abzan i'm allready on three basics, but we have to arm ourselfs for the "upside" of facing Trophy too.
I think traverse will become more popular for its fixing ability too.
Another thing that has struck me about this card is that it's just so very powerfull, WotC must be planning to put something new, or something powerful back into modern that warants an answer like this. Twin or SfM spring to mind.
Modern: WUBRG Humans - GBW Traverse - GWU Knightfall - GRW Bushwhacker Zoo -
Again, we can do this exact same analysis for dead modes on Push, Path, Lily, and TS, all of which routinely see 3+ copies. The average Trophy is still way better than the average Decay in more matchups. The below average Trophies are still often find. Bad Trophy is admittedly very bad, but it's generally just as bad as bad Decay, bad TS, bad Push, etc.