I'd be very reluctant to cut the 2x Decay from the main. The card is just so freaking flexible-- just yesterday, I used it to blow up Rest in Peace, Phyrexian Unlife, Chalice of the Void, Ratchet Bomb, and a bunch of creatures. Having maindeck outs to random stuff is nothing short of awesome.
I am largely conflicted with regards to Traverse vs Friedman GDS. The gap in speed between the two decks is closer than ever, but GDS undeniably has better staying power into the mid and late game. It is able to interact on the stack better (Denial + Snap Denial), and has more flexibility in the gameplan it can enact. For example, you can board in a whole bunch of removal spells and grindy cards to become a control deck, whereas you can't make that many cuts with Traverse Shadow because of the need to leave in a sufficient density of delirium enablers.
GDS also doesn't suffer from drawing a few extra lands compared to Traverse, largely due to it's ability to scale into the mid game with Snap, and cards like Looting (and Visions, if you were to play it). This is all without even comparing the threat suites of both decks; though to be fair, I do think that Angler's immunity to Fatal Push is not a significant factor in the current meta, though it is definitely something to consider if the format were to shift in the future.
My biggest issue with GDS is its inconsistency in getting a threat on the board, and accounts for pretty much every loss I ever had with the deck. Terribly frustrating at times.
Sure it's possible, it's just not a great card right now. It forces you to play the long game against decks that are much better at the long game than us.
Maybe those aren't the decks you want to bring Souls in against? I wouldn't board in Souls against a deck that has a better mid-game than I do. I bring it in against Infect, Affinity, & Spirits mainly. And it's pretty good against humans though I don't usually board it in. I can be very annoying for Hollow One to deal with 4x Spirit tokens as well. I would certainly not use Lingering Souls against Jund or Jeskai. You said it yourself, those types of decks are just going to out-class us after turn 5 anyway.
On this subject, I really feel that a 3rd Temur Battle Rage somewhere in the 75 is where I'm moving towards. And I've recently switched to Grim Flayer in the main over Ghor-Clan. As great as GCR is sometimes, I feel that Traversing for him (i.e. giving your opponent the inside scoop on your plan) takes away the surprise factor which is often how to you kill with TBR. They block incorrectly because they think you don't have the TBR (or GCR). I've used GCR to win before but always when I draw it naturally, never when I Traverse for it. And if thats the case, shouldn't it just be TBR for more dmg potential? Having a better threat density and potentially going up to 3x TBR post-board is what makes this deck shine over the GDS version. I might even try 2x Grim Flayer and drop Faithless Looting all together. I've had mixed feelings about my 17x land / 2x Looting setup recently.
Yeah, I think Traverse is significantly better than GDS because of the threat issue. Not that I think that Traverse is good... but I think GDS is worse. Even Ben Friedman said he doesn't think GDS has a good matchup in the to 10 decks of the metagame, where about half seem favored for Traverse. The wrong half, perhaps, but half.
I hear ya on Decay. But right now I think Traverse Shadow need more cheap removal to justify itself, TBH. If you can't beat humans, I don't think you should be playing the deck.
Yeah, I think Traverse is significantly better than GDS because of the threat issue. Not that I think that Traverse is good... but I think GDS is worse. Even Ben Friedman said he doesn't think GDS has a good matchup in the to 10 decks of the metagame, where about half seem favored for Traverse. The wrong half, perhaps, but half.
I hear ya on Decay. But right now I think Traverse Shadow need more cheap removal to justify itself, TBH. If you can't beat humans, I don't think you should be playing the deck.
Maybe I just haven't played against enough skilled Humans players (or I've been lucky) but I don't feel that the match-up is that bad. I would certainly much rather play against Humans than Jeskai control, which BTW has taken over as the top metagame presence for the last two months, according to mtgtop8.com
(so I guess maybe you're right in that Death's Shadow is not well positioned at the moment)
The humans matchup is bad to about even, depending on your configuration. But I think you need to have an actively GOOD matchup to make Shadow worth it.
Question - what are the proper uses of Golgari Charm? I see it sideboards fairly often, usually as a 2-of but I'm sure of the best match-ups to bring it in for.
Also, has anyone played against UWx Spirits? I played two matches against the deck and lost both 0-2. It seems like a watered down Humans deck but when everything has flying and even without Vial most things can be flashed in.
The main use that comes to mind is regenerating your creatures in the face of Supreme Verdict, which is an otherwise unbeatable card. Its other uses should be fairly obvious - it hits Pyro / Spirit tokens + Blood Moon out of Mardu Pyro, destroys clutch Auras or sweeps naked Bogles in the namesake deck, etc.
I don't think I'd run 2 any time soon but 1 seems like an interesting addition.
UWx Spirits is about 50/50 I'd say, but it can be tough. Timing is everything and you need to be very aware of which creatures they play, their CMC, and what they do on resolution. I recently lost a match because I held up removal for a lord, but he got 2 Drogskol Captains off a CoCo and they gave each other hexproof on the spot. If they're on curve it's hard to beat, and you're gonna lose the long game so racing is key here.
Thanks for those tips. I havent faced Mardu yet but it seems like it could be difficult so I'll try to find room in my board for a G-charm or two.
The Spirits match is definitely going to be problematic. The deck feels almost more dangerous than burn IMHO. I do have some match results from last week to share:
Against UG Infect - we went to game 3, and each game was drawn out longer than expected. I lost game 1 but boarding in Lingering souls took me to victory games 2 and 3. Boarded out LOTV and Abrupt decay. Having crucial information about their hand was also key here.
Against UW Control - this match felt unwinnable. They just have too many answers and I'm not fast enough. Once I did get in for a win with some early threats, leaving me a 1-2 loss. I boarded in 10 cards, effectively transforming the deck which might have been a mistake. Stubborn Denial didn't seem very useful here.
Against Jeskai Control - even though I lost this one 0-2, the match-up felt a little better than UW. They have less counterspells so threats stuck more often. Burn isn't great against my threats but burn spells did kill me both games. Maybe boarding in an additional Temur battle rage could be good here. I didn't draw Stub this match but I did board it in game 2.
Overall I feel I just need to be more aggressive. No additional threats outside of Shadow and Goyf is a mistake. More delirium enablers also. LOTV was a bust in all three matches but I still feel she's useful in others. I will try to go down to 1x maindeck.
Regarding the need to be more aggressive: Manamorphose is the truth. I would not play the deck without it, and trust me when I say that it took me a while to fully appreciate it (you need to play enough games to feel the difference it makes in consistency). I highly recommend you try Spooly's list; I'm personally playing an older iteration of it.
Regarding the need to be more aggressive: Manamorphose is the truth. I would not play the deck without it, and trust me when I say that it took me a while to fully appreciate it (you need to play enough games to feel the difference it makes in consistency). I highly recommend you try Spooly's list; I'm personally playing an older iteration of it.
<3
I just wish the deck was well positioned right now.
I took the original list I used to win my SCG Regionals to a weekly for the nostalgia value since it's the last weekly before I move halfway across the country, and casually 5-0ed, including beating Mardu twice, and winning a match against spirits partially because my opponent made uncharacteristically (for him) boneheaded plays, and because he accidentally left relevant sideboard cards at home. I'm convinced that particular 75 has some voodoo powers now.
So, in theory, is an opening hand with tons of cantrips, maybe a Thoughtseize or Inquistion, but otherwise no guaranteed action - worth keeping? I'm asking this of Spooly and the other Manamorphos players. The deck has some difficult mulligan decisions as it is.
I struggled with mulligans a lot with this deck, but playing a bunch of games has helped a lot. The following are my general criteria for keepable hands (if anyone disagrees, feel free to chime in):
1. Ideally be able to deploy a threat by turn 2/3. Traverse + land(s) + at least 3/4 delirium enablers = keep for me.
2. Mull just about any hand with 0, 4, 5, 6, or 7 lands.
3. Always keep your 5.
4. I believe you are more often rewarded than punished for keeping speculative hands filled with cantrips IF you only have 1-2 lands. If you have a 2-lander with 4 cantrips and 1 discard spell, I would keep it in the dark. Bauble tricks also compel me to keep more borderline hands.
Do this experiment while you test Manamorphose: keep track of all the occasions it allows you to achieve delirium, and also keep track of all the times it would give you delirium if you were to draw it. It wasn't until I did the latter that I really began to appreciate how much it does for the deck. And to think it has so much other utility, too!
So, in theory, is an opening hand with tons of cantrips, maybe a Thoughtseize or Inquistion, but otherwise no guaranteed action - worth keeping? I'm asking this of Spooly and the other Manamorphos players. The deck has some difficult mulligan decisions as it is.
I struggled with mulligans a lot with this deck, but playing a bunch of games has helped a lot. The following are my general criteria for keepable hands (if anyone disagrees, feel free to chime in):
1. Ideally be able to deploy a threat by turn 2/3. Traverse + land(s) + at least 3/4 delirium enablers = keep for me.
2. Mull just about any hand with 0, 4, 5, 6, or 7 lands.
3. Always keep your 5.
4. I believe you are more often rewarded than punished for keeping speculative hands filled with cantrips IF you only have 1-2 lands. If you have a 2-lander with 4 cantrips and 1 discard spell, I would keep it in the dark. Bauble tricks also compel me to keep more borderline hands.
Do this experiment while you test Manamorphose: keep track of all the occasions it allows you to achieve delirium, and also keep track of all the times it would give you delirium if you were to draw it. It wasn't until I did the latter that I really began to appreciate how much it does for the deck. And to think it has so much other utility, too!
I largely agree with this, though "Always" is a little strong on keeping the 5. If my 7 is 2 lands, a pile of cantrips, and a discard spell though, I might mulligan it in some matchups. Especially if I can't create a scry using Bauble somehow. For example, against Tron, where we really need the threat early and our interaction is not likely to slow them down enough if we don't have one. I'm not certain about this though. In the dark, I think we have to keep that hand. It's part of what we signed up for with this many cantrips, and sometimes it won't pan out, but at least we have some interaction.
Ok you have sold me on at least trying out 4x Manamorphos. Next question I have is: cutting the cards from my list to add them was fairly easy for me to decide, with one exception. This was my approac (from my list couple posts ago)
-1 Grim Flayer
-3 Tarfire
-1 Liliana of the Veil
-1 Land
+4 Manamorphos
+2 Stubborn Denial
But now the question is, what land should I remove? I feel that going to only 10x fetches might be too low, and I really dislike having only one basic because of the vulnerability to cards like PTE and Field of Ruin becoming 2-for-1s. So should I cut my second Overgrown Tomb? My new landbase looks like:
4x Verdant catacombs
4x Bloodstained Mire
3x Polluted Delta
1x Overgrown tomb
1x Watery Grave
1x Stomping ground
1x Blood Crypt
1x Swamp
1x Forest
I played a match against Jund this morning and performed very well. Lost game 1 to lightning bolt but won get 2 through a grindfest. Game 3 I experienced exactly what you've been telling me about Manamorphos (hadn't drawn it games 1 or 2). I had a Savage opening had with 2 discards, MM, Wraith, and 3 lands. I drew into a natural Shadow and a Traverse by turn 3 (MM achieving Delirium for me). Admittedly I was a luck sack the rest of game, drawing two goyfs and another traverse. But I definitely see how MM can create early game consistency. Granted that was only 1 game, but it has me feeling confident.
I really appreciate the feedback from you more experienced pilots of this deck. I've been playing MTG for 15 years and this has got to be the most technical deck I've played competitively. It's also tons of fun. That being said, what would your advice be on the landbase? I have no blue cards outside of Stub, so a second blue source (Breeding Pool) likely isn't necessary. Virtually all lists I've seen always run 2x Overgrown Tomb but it was the only thing that seemed reasonable to cut from the landbase to make room for the 4th Manamorphos (assuming I do indeed want to drop the 17 lands)
Because IRL friends keep asking me for a list even though I keep telling them to play KCI or Humans or Mardu or Tron instead, here's a couple of speculative lists to get some juices flowing. At some point I'm going to write an article for deadonboard.com trying to explain how I think Shadow fits into modern since the rise of Humans and Mardu, and the unbanning of Bloodbraid Elf. But first I have to move :D. This is a bit of brainstorming for that article.
The main difference between the two lists is, how afraid are you of Thalia? I would like to be able to play Manamophose because of what it does for the deck's ability to consistently produce a threat early, but Thalia is a very strong reason why that may be a bad idea. And if SCG Indy is any indication, Humans is having a resurgence (thanks to Militia Bugler in part).
This list is pretty close to the "core" I posted a few pages back. I tried playing zero Stubs in the 75, maxing out on TBR, and even the recent Suicide Zoo lists. Conclusion: you still need Stub. Not in copious amounts, but a couple are good. So other than mixing up the removal suite, and cutting a removal spell for a Grim Flayer, this list is largely just one of the previous Manamorphose lists I've posted maybe a couple months ago. Geared to beat humans though, at the cost of losing Abrupt Decay in the 75. The SB is also geared for Humans, with Lavamancer and Radiant Flames. The only grindy deck we really have SB cards for is Mardu: Golgari Charm, Spellbomb, and Abrade to kill Bridge if they have it. We are basically conceding to Jeskai and Jund. It's too hard to gain percentage points there, so we're hoping that Tron and such pushes it out of the metagame if we play this deck. Though Golgari Charm does stop Supreme Verdict. So the goal is to beat humans, take advantage of our natural strength against KCI, and beat Tron. Yes, you want the Fulminator for Tron. Even as a slow Traverse target, it can often take games that you are about 60% to win to about 90%. I've played 2 before just to naturally draw them.
But if our goal is to beat humans, Manamorphose is a problem. We reeeally want it against Tron and KCI to get a threat out fast, but Thalia is a real problem out of humans. So that motivates the Manamorphose-less build. We have to make up for our worse ability to get delirium, so that means 1) more threats, and 2) Tarfire (or maybe Seal of Fire). Tarfire is also an ok removal spell against humans. Here's the relevant list:
The other change here is the 3rd TBR. I kind of want a 3rd TBR in the first list, but there's just no room. But if we cut the Manamorphoses, that means the deck size is larger and we have extra slots, so in one goes. It could be a second Tarfire to be honest though. The SB is the same, though I'm not sure if that's correct. But in any case, this just where I'd start, if I were dead set on playing Shadow. Essentially: max out on threats, do everything you can to beat Humans (harder) and Tron (not so hard), use GY hate to try to get under Mardu, and then find out if you can still get away with Manamorphose if you absolutely need to beat humans. If you can, great! If not, see if you still consistently produce a threat fast enough if all the other matchups. One bad thing about wanting to beat both tron and humans is that tron makes you want Breeding Pool (so Worldbreaker doesn't KO your countermagic) while Humans makes you want Stomping Ground (so you can double red spell / activate lavaman in one turn). So that's another thing we need to learn: how important are those two things for those respective matchups, and which one should we choose? I lean toward double red, but it could go the other way.
Of course your local metagame could vary. This is trying to beat the expected SCG Open / GP metagame.
Fantastic post @Spooly, really appreciate your insight. As someone who is just starting to get into the format (longtime legacy player) I find these kind of breakdowns to be really helpful. Looking forward to your article!
edit: Did anyone ever try Whispers of Emrakul out of the board with this deck?
edit2: I found the search function. New question: has any reconsidered playing it lately?
Hello, I'm considering to include one or two Ground Seal in the SB
I find Ground Seal can be good against KCI, Dredge, Reanimator... and it is also a good protection against Scavenging Ooze or even Surgical Extraction (it is terrible if the opponent surgical our DS or Tarmo).
The other possible modification is the mentioned 3rd Temur Battle Rage in the SB or in the main...
What is your opinion?
It doesn't do anything against the decks to beat right now, but it could be a meta call I guess. Surgical and Ooze are the least of our concerns at the moment, generally.
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Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
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I am largely conflicted with regards to Traverse vs Friedman GDS. The gap in speed between the two decks is closer than ever, but GDS undeniably has better staying power into the mid and late game. It is able to interact on the stack better (Denial + Snap Denial), and has more flexibility in the gameplan it can enact. For example, you can board in a whole bunch of removal spells and grindy cards to become a control deck, whereas you can't make that many cuts with Traverse Shadow because of the need to leave in a sufficient density of delirium enablers.
GDS also doesn't suffer from drawing a few extra lands compared to Traverse, largely due to it's ability to scale into the mid game with Snap, and cards like Looting (and Visions, if you were to play it). This is all without even comparing the threat suites of both decks; though to be fair, I do think that Angler's immunity to Fatal Push is not a significant factor in the current meta, though it is definitely something to consider if the format were to shift in the future.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
Maybe those aren't the decks you want to bring Souls in against? I wouldn't board in Souls against a deck that has a better mid-game than I do. I bring it in against Infect, Affinity, & Spirits mainly. And it's pretty good against humans though I don't usually board it in. I can be very annoying for Hollow One to deal with 4x Spirit tokens as well. I would certainly not use Lingering Souls against Jund or Jeskai. You said it yourself, those types of decks are just going to out-class us after turn 5 anyway.
On this subject, I really feel that a 3rd Temur Battle Rage somewhere in the 75 is where I'm moving towards. And I've recently switched to Grim Flayer in the main over Ghor-Clan. As great as GCR is sometimes, I feel that Traversing for him (i.e. giving your opponent the inside scoop on your plan) takes away the surprise factor which is often how to you kill with TBR. They block incorrectly because they think you don't have the TBR (or GCR). I've used GCR to win before but always when I draw it naturally, never when I Traverse for it. And if thats the case, shouldn't it just be TBR for more dmg potential? Having a better threat density and potentially going up to 3x TBR post-board is what makes this deck shine over the GDS version. I might even try 2x Grim Flayer and drop Faithless Looting all together. I've had mixed feelings about my 17x land / 2x Looting setup recently.
4 Street Wraith
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Grim Flayer
Spells (29)
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Mishra's Bauble
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Fatal Push
2 Tarfire
2 Dismember
2 Fatal Push
2 Temur Battle Rage
1 Liliana of the Veil
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Polluted Delta
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Watery Grave
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Collective Brutality
2 Kolaghan's Command
1 Temur Battle Rage
1 Grim Lavamancer
3 Lingering Souls
1 Godless Shrine
3 Stubborn Denial
Playing this list at my local tomorrow and at an upcoming PTQ. Will get back with results
Draft My Cube!
I hear ya on Decay. But right now I think Traverse Shadow need more cheap removal to justify itself, TBH. If you can't beat humans, I don't think you should be playing the deck.
Maybe I just haven't played against enough skilled Humans players (or I've been lucky) but I don't feel that the match-up is that bad. I would certainly much rather play against Humans than Jeskai control, which BTW has taken over as the top metagame presence for the last two months, according to mtgtop8.com
(so I guess maybe you're right in that Death's Shadow is not well positioned at the moment)
Draft My Cube!
Also, has anyone played against UWx Spirits? I played two matches against the deck and lost both 0-2. It seems like a watered down Humans deck but when everything has flying and even without Vial most things can be flashed in.
Draft My Cube!
I don't think I'd run 2 any time soon but 1 seems like an interesting addition.
UWx Spirits is about 50/50 I'd say, but it can be tough. Timing is everything and you need to be very aware of which creatures they play, their CMC, and what they do on resolution. I recently lost a match because I held up removal for a lord, but he got 2 Drogskol Captains off a CoCo and they gave each other hexproof on the spot. If they're on curve it's hard to beat, and you're gonna lose the long game so racing is key here.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
The Spirits match is definitely going to be problematic. The deck feels almost more dangerous than burn IMHO. I do have some match results from last week to share:
4 Street Wraith
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Ghor-clan Rampager
Spells
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Abrupt decay
2 Fatal Push
2 Tarfire
2 Dismember
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Temur battle rage
2 Faithless Looting
4 Verdant catacombs
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Polluted Delta
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Overgrown tomb
2 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping ground
1 Forest
1 Swamp
3 Lingering souls
1 Godless Shrine
3 Stubborn Denial
1 Watery grave
2 Collective Brutality
1 Radiant flames
1 Grim Lavamancer
2 Kolaghan's Command
1 Ancient Grudge
Against UW Control - this match felt unwinnable. They just have too many answers and I'm not fast enough. Once I did get in for a win with some early threats, leaving me a 1-2 loss. I boarded in 10 cards, effectively transforming the deck which might have been a mistake. Stubborn Denial didn't seem very useful here.
Against Jeskai Control - even though I lost this one 0-2, the match-up felt a little better than UW. They have less counterspells so threats stuck more often. Burn isn't great against my threats but burn spells did kill me both games. Maybe boarding in an additional Temur battle rage could be good here. I didn't draw Stub this match but I did board it in game 2.
Overall I feel I just need to be more aggressive. No additional threats outside of Shadow and Goyf is a mistake. More delirium enablers also. LOTV was a bust in all three matches but I still feel she's useful in others. I will try to go down to 1x maindeck.
4 Street Wraith
4 Death's shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Grim Flayer
1 Ghor-clan Rampager
Spells:
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Thoughtseize
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Tarfire
2 Dismember
2 Fatal Push
2 Temur Battle Rage
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Abrupt decay
4 Verdant catacombs
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Polluted Delta
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping ground
1 Godless Shrine
1 Forest
1 Swamp
3 Lingering Souls
2 Stubborn Denial
1 Watery grave
2 Kolaghan's Command
2 Collective Brutality
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Radiant flames
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Abrupt Decay
1 Temur Battle Rage
Draft My Cube!
<3
I just wish the deck was well positioned right now.
I took the original list I used to win my SCG Regionals to a weekly for the nostalgia value since it's the last weekly before I move halfway across the country, and casually 5-0ed, including beating Mardu twice, and winning a match against spirits partially because my opponent made uncharacteristically (for him) boneheaded plays, and because he accidentally left relevant sideboard cards at home. I'm convinced that particular 75 has some voodoo powers now.
Draft My Cube!
1. Ideally be able to deploy a threat by turn 2/3. Traverse + land(s) + at least 3/4 delirium enablers = keep for me.
2. Mull just about any hand with 0, 4, 5, 6, or 7 lands.
3. Always keep your 5.
4. I believe you are more often rewarded than punished for keeping speculative hands filled with cantrips IF you only have 1-2 lands. If you have a 2-lander with 4 cantrips and 1 discard spell, I would keep it in the dark. Bauble tricks also compel me to keep more borderline hands.
Do this experiment while you test Manamorphose: keep track of all the occasions it allows you to achieve delirium, and also keep track of all the times it would give you delirium if you were to draw it. It wasn't until I did the latter that I really began to appreciate how much it does for the deck. And to think it has so much other utility, too!
I largely agree with this, though "Always" is a little strong on keeping the 5. If my 7 is 2 lands, a pile of cantrips, and a discard spell though, I might mulligan it in some matchups. Especially if I can't create a scry using Bauble somehow. For example, against Tron, where we really need the threat early and our interaction is not likely to slow them down enough if we don't have one. I'm not certain about this though. In the dark, I think we have to keep that hand. It's part of what we signed up for with this many cantrips, and sometimes it won't pan out, but at least we have some interaction.
-1 Grim Flayer
-3 Tarfire
-1 Liliana of the Veil
-1 Land
+4 Manamorphos
+2 Stubborn Denial
But now the question is, what land should I remove? I feel that going to only 10x fetches might be too low, and I really dislike having only one basic because of the vulnerability to cards like PTE and Field of Ruin becoming 2-for-1s. So should I cut my second Overgrown Tomb? My new landbase looks like:
4x Verdant catacombs
4x Bloodstained Mire
3x Polluted Delta
1x Overgrown tomb
1x Watery Grave
1x Stomping ground
1x Blood Crypt
1x Swamp
1x Forest
I played a match against Jund this morning and performed very well. Lost game 1 to lightning bolt but won get 2 through a grindfest. Game 3 I experienced exactly what you've been telling me about Manamorphos (hadn't drawn it games 1 or 2). I had a Savage opening had with 2 discards, MM, Wraith, and 3 lands. I drew into a natural Shadow and a Traverse by turn 3 (MM achieving Delirium for me). Admittedly I was a luck sack the rest of game, drawing two goyfs and another traverse. But I definitely see how MM can create early game consistency. Granted that was only 1 game, but it has me feeling confident.
I really appreciate the feedback from you more experienced pilots of this deck. I've been playing MTG for 15 years and this has got to be the most technical deck I've played competitively. It's also tons of fun. That being said, what would your advice be on the landbase? I have no blue cards outside of Stub, so a second blue source (Breeding Pool) likely isn't necessary. Virtually all lists I've seen always run 2x Overgrown Tomb but it was the only thing that seemed reasonable to cut from the landbase to make room for the 4th Manamorphos (assuming I do indeed want to drop the 17 lands)
Draft My Cube!
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
The main difference between the two lists is, how afraid are you of Thalia? I would like to be able to play Manamophose because of what it does for the deck's ability to consistently produce a threat early, but Thalia is a very strong reason why that may be a bad idea. And if SCG Indy is any indication, Humans is having a resurgence (thanks to Militia Bugler in part).
First, the Manamorphose list.
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Wooded Foothills
1 Polluted Delta
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Watery Grave
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Forest
4 Street Wraith
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Manamorphose
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Grim Flayer
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
2 Stubborn Denial
2 Temur Battle Rage
2 Fatal Push
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Dismember
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Radiant Flames
2 Collective Brutality
1 Golgari Charm
2 Fulminator Mage
1 Stubborn Denial
2 Delay
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Abrade
This list is pretty close to the "core" I posted a few pages back. I tried playing zero Stubs in the 75, maxing out on TBR, and even the recent Suicide Zoo lists. Conclusion: you still need Stub. Not in copious amounts, but a couple are good. So other than mixing up the removal suite, and cutting a removal spell for a Grim Flayer, this list is largely just one of the previous Manamorphose lists I've posted maybe a couple months ago. Geared to beat humans though, at the cost of losing Abrupt Decay in the 75. The SB is also geared for Humans, with Lavamancer and Radiant Flames. The only grindy deck we really have SB cards for is Mardu: Golgari Charm, Spellbomb, and Abrade to kill Bridge if they have it. We are basically conceding to Jeskai and Jund. It's too hard to gain percentage points there, so we're hoping that Tron and such pushes it out of the metagame if we play this deck. Though Golgari Charm does stop Supreme Verdict. So the goal is to beat humans, take advantage of our natural strength against KCI, and beat Tron. Yes, you want the Fulminator for Tron. Even as a slow Traverse target, it can often take games that you are about 60% to win to about 90%. I've played 2 before just to naturally draw them.
But if our goal is to beat humans, Manamorphose is a problem. We reeeally want it against Tron and KCI to get a threat out fast, but Thalia is a real problem out of humans. So that motivates the Manamorphose-less build. We have to make up for our worse ability to get delirium, so that means 1) more threats, and 2) Tarfire (or maybe Seal of Fire). Tarfire is also an ok removal spell against humans. Here's the relevant list:
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Polluted Delta
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Watery Grave
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Forest
4 Street Wraith
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Grim Flayer
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
2 Stubborn Denial
3 Temur Battle Rage
2 Fatal Push
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Dismember
1 Tarfire
2 Grim Lavamancer
1 Radiant Flames
2 Collective Brutality
1 Golgari Charm
2 Fulminator Mage
1 Stubborn Denial
2 Delay
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Abrade
The other change here is the 3rd TBR. I kind of want a 3rd TBR in the first list, but there's just no room. But if we cut the Manamorphoses, that means the deck size is larger and we have extra slots, so in one goes. It could be a second Tarfire to be honest though. The SB is the same, though I'm not sure if that's correct. But in any case, this just where I'd start, if I were dead set on playing Shadow. Essentially: max out on threats, do everything you can to beat Humans (harder) and Tron (not so hard), use GY hate to try to get under Mardu, and then find out if you can still get away with Manamorphose if you absolutely need to beat humans. If you can, great! If not, see if you still consistently produce a threat fast enough if all the other matchups. One bad thing about wanting to beat both tron and humans is that tron makes you want Breeding Pool (so Worldbreaker doesn't KO your countermagic) while Humans makes you want Stomping Ground (so you can double red spell / activate lavaman in one turn). So that's another thing we need to learn: how important are those two things for those respective matchups, and which one should we choose? I lean toward double red, but it could go the other way.
Of course your local metagame could vary. This is trying to beat the expected SCG Open / GP metagame.
edit: Did anyone ever try Whispers of Emrakul out of the board with this deck?
edit2: I found the search function. New question: has any reconsidered playing it lately?
I find Ground Seal can be good against KCI, Dredge, Reanimator... and it is also a good protection against Scavenging Ooze or even Surgical Extraction (it is terrible if the opponent surgical our DS or Tarmo).
The other possible modification is the mentioned 3rd Temur Battle Rage in the SB or in the main...
What is your opinion?
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki