There is no weakest card. The problem is the meta is too diverse or decks demand too specific answers without granting us enough time to find them. So to sum up: We are lacking deck manipulation.
That's just patently not true. The deck would be hurt much more by removing Liliana of the Veil than Scavenging Ooze from the modern card pool. Assuming you agree, Scavenging Ooze is weaker than LotV. We might not be able to determine this relationship between all pairs of cards in the deck but that doesn't mean they don't exist. All it means is that we don't know them. If the rules of the format were changed and the deck size limit set to 59 cards the one you'd cut would be your best guess at the weakest card. Personally I'd cut Abrupt Decay. But that's not the point really.
You answered my question and I tend to agree with your answer: we need deck manipulation. My first thought is "what would make Grim Flayer actually viable?" Something to help reliably trigger delirium while still being a good card in its own right obviously. What would such a card look like though? Maybe something like on-color Cast Out, an enchantment that cycles while being solid removal mid-game seems ok.
At the same time I could also say that Ooze is much better than LoTV for the Affinity matchup specifically. And thats my point. While it might be true that a specific card is the weakest across all matchups, I don't think its the right point of view. Ultimately it doesn't matter. All cards serve a purpose in our deck to tackle different matchups. The question about weakest cards in our deck is only relevant in specific matchups at which point sideboarding kicks in. LoTV is great in the deck overall, but she is really bad for Affinity. Thus she gets sided out.
The problem we have is that our cards aren't impactful enough in every matchup. There are some where each gets to shine, but in specific situations it matters extremely whether that one Bolt would have been a Push and vice versa. Thats why I think we need selection.
The problem with Hollow One imo is, that they are easily able to outgrind us. We can't get over the top of the deck. As for Humans and Affinity, we are well set up.
I don't think we are necessarily the best non aggro deck atm, just because Jund has more meta share. I think Mardu Pyro is still better.
Anything in particular about Mardu that you think gives them the edge? Being able to main-deck blood moons maybe?
Despite the fact that it's card disadvantage (or neutral with flashback), faithless looting lets Mardu see so much of its deck each game. The combination of looting, souls, reveler, and a good disruption suite makes it a grindier midrange deck that has better matchups against many of the top decks in the format.
That being said, I think it's a lot greedier than Jund as it is hurt by GY hate more than us, and it doesn't get the big beaters we get which makes it worse against combo decks that you need to clock.
The problem with Hollow One imo is, that they are easily able to outgrind us. We can't get over the top of the deck. As for Humans and Affinity, we are well set up.
I don't think we are necessarily the best non aggro deck atm, just because Jund has more meta share. I think Mardu Pyro is still better.
I’m not sure I understand why you think hollow one should out grind jund. In game 1 the graveyard recursion could be problematic if you never draw scavenging ooze, but in games 2 and 3 your sideboard should have that in check. Assuming that’s in check, our deck is packed with CA and their deck is packed with card disadvantage. Maybe reevaluate how you board?
Also I don’t agree that mardu is an objectively better deck. Mardu has better card selection, but is significantly worse at turning the corner and actually winning. That’s a pretty big deal in modern considering that it’s usually better to be proactive than reactive.
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Modern UMerfolk GBWMelira PodRIP GBW Abzan Midrange GBR Jund Midrange
Anything in particular about Mardu that you think gives them the edge? Being able to main-deck blood moons maybe?
Mardu can find answers in time as you are able to see soo many cards over course of a game. Looting providing selection and virtual card advantage is amazing in this deck. Sometimes you need the one bolt off the top to finish opponents off. In Jund this rarely actually happens, but in Mardu you can actively dig for it and get there pretty consistantly. And that is true for every card you might need.
The problem with Hollow One imo is, that they are easily able to outgrind us. We can't get over the top of the deck. As for Humans and Affinity, we are well set up.
I don't think we are necessarily the best non aggro deck atm, just because Jund has more meta share. I think Mardu Pyro is still better.
I’m not sure I understand why you think hollow one should out grind jund. In game 1 the graveyard recursion could be problematic if you never draw scavenging ooze, but in games 2 and 3 your sideboard should have that in check. Assuming that’s in check, our deck is packed with CA and their deck is packed with card disadvantage. Maybe reevaluate how you board?
Also I don’t agree that mardu is an objectively better deck. Mardu has better card selection, but is significantly worse at turning the corner and actually winning. That’s a pretty big deal in modern considering that it’s usually better to be proactive than reactive.
Believe me, I played against the deck a bunch of times and talked long and broad about the matchup with a very experienced Hollow One player. Hollow One easily outgrinds us, and I mean it. The things you say about Ooze are possible, but in reality just unlikely. How can you assume that with miser 2 Spellbombs and 1 Cage in the SB their GY should be handled? Especially postboard Ooze won't stay on the board long enough to have a big enough impact. Phoenixes, Bloodghasts are impossible to outgrind if we don't get to exile all of them, which will never happen in a realistic game. At some point they can just hardcast Street Wraith at some point. We would need an endless stream of terminates to get rid of all their delve threats, hollow one or street wraiths. Given that their deck makes our LoTV bad, lowers that chance even further.
And I mentioned it already a bunch of times, Hollow One does not need to be the aggressor against us. They side out negative CA cards like Burning Inquiry against us. I don't see why their deck should then be packed with negative CA cards like you said. Looting creates virtual CA. I often hear people fear the openers of turn 1 Hollow One. In reality, this is not very likely to happen, at least not consistantly. Often times the best opener they have is turn 1 Flameblade Adept into turn 2 Goblin lore. This simple 1 drop turns into a huge threat on turn 2 already, which needs to be answered. And we didn't even face recurring creatures or their big creatures at that point. And I definitely don't board that wrongly in that matchup like you assume.
On Mardu, while it is true that their clock is lower than the one of Jund, Mardu can control opponents far better which grants them enough time to finish games. Mardu can turn corners for sure. And Mardu is very well able to be proactive. The only matchup which is worse for Mardu is Tron. I strongly belive right now Mardu is better against Humans, Affinity, Hollow One and at least even or slightly worse against Storm and Burn. So the only worse matchup is Tron.
How do we feel about Night of Souls' Betrayal right now? It seems decent vs the field. I understand four mana is a steep price, and it shuts down our Bob's, but it's been done before. Decks I would consider it good against: Hollow one (shuts down recurring creatures, puts hollow ones in bolt range), Mardu Pyromancer, Affinity, Infect, Boggles, Humans, basically any deck with X/1's. Thoughts? Too slow?
I think its too slow, and at 4 mana I would most of the time have my Damnation get resolved. Against Bogles turn 4 means you could be dead then. Against Humans on turn 4 you likely don't kill any Human anymore. The only really good hit is Mardu and Affinity. I think even against Hollow One it is kinda weak.
In sideboard guide we sideout collective brutality agaisnt mardu. I seems good against it if u only use drain and removal. i think its much better than liliana of the veil. usually u dont get to kill a big dude with lily sac ability and more chances to get locked in hand with blood moon compared to brutality. am i missing something?
In sideboard guide we sideout collective brutality agaisnt mardu. I seems good against it if u only use drain and removal. i think its much better than liliana of the veil. usually u doing get to kill a big dude with sac ability and more chances to get locked in hand with blood moon compared to brutality. am i missing something?
Thx for addressing this, this is indeed a bit off. I corrected the plan and now it should be fine.
Played a pretty experimental decklist at modern FNM last night. Ended up going 2-2, largely as a consequence of pairings I think (aka just so many bad matchups).
Beat Mardu Pyromancer 2-0 (admittedly against a novice pilot), G Tron 2-0 (very spicy and out-there decklist, would not have been so easy against a more standard build), then lost 1-2 to bogles and 0-2 to BW tokens.
I was testing out the Reid Duke-esque fast jund build with tarfire, but made some additional deckbuilding decisions that I'll elaborate on.
3 LotV was the most heretical decision I made, and in retrospect I think it was wrong. It sucks drawing too many lilis at once, but I think the unique effect lili provides are so critical to the deck and so powerful that the traditional wisdom is correct.
I ran a tireless tracker in place of the 4th dark confidant because of how dangerous bob is to play in multiples. Tracker provides a similar stream of CA, but without the life loss. Bob is still way more mana-efficient and the better card to have 9 times out of 10 IMO, but having 4 of them feels like overkill with so little maindeck lifegain. Honestly, I didn't draw tracker much at all last night. But when I did, it felt better than bob number 4.
Lastly, I cut Kolaghan's command to the sideboard. I know Kcommand is a great value play, but to be honest I don't think it's good enough in modern right now to justify playing maindeck. Modern is rife with aggro decks at the moment, and against the majority of aggro decks Kcommand is a 1-for-1 as far as the board is concerned. Sometimes your opponent has no 2-toughness creatures worth killing, and in those scenarios Kcommand is just a 3-mana value play. I think with the addition of Bloodbraid Elf, Jund has enough value cards at its disposable that an expensive and narrow removal spell isn't good enough even if it provides value. But it does make an excellent sideboard card as a psuedo-ancient grudge in the match-ups where grudge is good and a great value play when grudge would be bad. I think for now I'm gonna leave the Kcommands in the board.
The sideboard though is pretty messy. I'm kinda not sure what to do here because I don't have enough testing with a build like this. Assuming that you had to play the above maindeck with +1 LotV and -1 Scooze, what 15 cards would you play for the sideboard?
I'll post the sideboard below in a spoiler, but if you would, please think about what you would run in the board before looking:
You answered my question and I tend to agree with your answer: we need deck manipulation. My first thought is "what would make Grim Flayer actually viable?" Something to help reliably trigger delirium while still being a good card in its own right obviously. What would such a card look like though? Maybe something like on-color Cast Out, an enchantment that cycles while being solid removal mid-game seems ok.
The problem we have is that our cards aren't impactful enough in every matchup. There are some where each gets to shine, but in specific situations it matters extremely whether that one Bolt would have been a Push and vice versa. Thats why I think we need selection.
I don't think we are necessarily the best non aggro deck atm, just because Jund has more meta share. I think Mardu Pyro is still better.
Despite the fact that it's card disadvantage (or neutral with flashback), faithless looting lets Mardu see so much of its deck each game. The combination of looting, souls, reveler, and a good disruption suite makes it a grindier midrange deck that has better matchups against many of the top decks in the format.
That being said, I think it's a lot greedier than Jund as it is hurt by GY hate more than us, and it doesn't get the big beaters we get which makes it worse against combo decks that you need to clock.
I’m not sure I understand why you think hollow one should out grind jund. In game 1 the graveyard recursion could be problematic if you never draw scavenging ooze, but in games 2 and 3 your sideboard should have that in check. Assuming that’s in check, our deck is packed with CA and their deck is packed with card disadvantage. Maybe reevaluate how you board?
Also I don’t agree that mardu is an objectively better deck. Mardu has better card selection, but is significantly worse at turning the corner and actually winning. That’s a pretty big deal in modern considering that it’s usually better to be proactive than reactive.
UMerfolkGBW
Melira PodRIPGBW Abzan Midrange
GBR Jund Midrange
EDH
GBR Prossh
Mardu can find answers in time as you are able to see soo many cards over course of a game. Looting providing selection and virtual card advantage is amazing in this deck. Sometimes you need the one bolt off the top to finish opponents off. In Jund this rarely actually happens, but in Mardu you can actively dig for it and get there pretty consistantly. And that is true for every card you might need.
Believe me, I played against the deck a bunch of times and talked long and broad about the matchup with a very experienced Hollow One player. Hollow One easily outgrinds us, and I mean it. The things you say about Ooze are possible, but in reality just unlikely. How can you assume that with miser 2 Spellbombs and 1 Cage in the SB their GY should be handled? Especially postboard Ooze won't stay on the board long enough to have a big enough impact. Phoenixes, Bloodghasts are impossible to outgrind if we don't get to exile all of them, which will never happen in a realistic game. At some point they can just hardcast Street Wraith at some point. We would need an endless stream of terminates to get rid of all their delve threats, hollow one or street wraiths. Given that their deck makes our LoTV bad, lowers that chance even further.
And I mentioned it already a bunch of times, Hollow One does not need to be the aggressor against us. They side out negative CA cards like Burning Inquiry against us. I don't see why their deck should then be packed with negative CA cards like you said. Looting creates virtual CA. I often hear people fear the openers of turn 1 Hollow One. In reality, this is not very likely to happen, at least not consistantly. Often times the best opener they have is turn 1 Flameblade Adept into turn 2 Goblin lore. This simple 1 drop turns into a huge threat on turn 2 already, which needs to be answered. And we didn't even face recurring creatures or their big creatures at that point. And I definitely don't board that wrongly in that matchup like you assume.
On Mardu, while it is true that their clock is lower than the one of Jund, Mardu can control opponents far better which grants them enough time to finish games. Mardu can turn corners for sure. And Mardu is very well able to be proactive. The only matchup which is worse for Mardu is Tron. I strongly belive right now Mardu is better against Humans, Affinity, Hollow One and at least even or slightly worse against Storm and Burn. So the only worse matchup is Tron.
edit: i meant dont
Thx for addressing this, this is indeed a bit off. I corrected the plan and now it should be fine.
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Dark Confidant
2 Grim Flayer
3 Scavenging Ooze
3 Bloodbraid Elf
1 Tireless Tracker
SPELLS
3 Liliana of the Veil
3 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire
2 Fatal Push
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Terminate
2 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Thoughtseize
LANDS
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Wooded Foothills
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blooming Marsh
3 Raging Ravine
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Blood Crypt
2 Swamp
2 Forest
Beat Mardu Pyromancer 2-0 (admittedly against a novice pilot), G Tron 2-0 (very spicy and out-there decklist, would not have been so easy against a more standard build), then lost 1-2 to bogles and 0-2 to BW tokens.
I was testing out the Reid Duke-esque fast jund build with tarfire, but made some additional deckbuilding decisions that I'll elaborate on.
3 LotV was the most heretical decision I made, and in retrospect I think it was wrong. It sucks drawing too many lilis at once, but I think the unique effect lili provides are so critical to the deck and so powerful that the traditional wisdom is correct.
I ran a tireless tracker in place of the 4th dark confidant because of how dangerous bob is to play in multiples. Tracker provides a similar stream of CA, but without the life loss. Bob is still way more mana-efficient and the better card to have 9 times out of 10 IMO, but having 4 of them feels like overkill with so little maindeck lifegain. Honestly, I didn't draw tracker much at all last night. But when I did, it felt better than bob number 4.
Lastly, I cut Kolaghan's command to the sideboard. I know Kcommand is a great value play, but to be honest I don't think it's good enough in modern right now to justify playing maindeck. Modern is rife with aggro decks at the moment, and against the majority of aggro decks Kcommand is a 1-for-1 as far as the board is concerned. Sometimes your opponent has no 2-toughness creatures worth killing, and in those scenarios Kcommand is just a 3-mana value play. I think with the addition of Bloodbraid Elf, Jund has enough value cards at its disposable that an expensive and narrow removal spell isn't good enough even if it provides value. But it does make an excellent sideboard card as a psuedo-ancient grudge in the match-ups where grudge is good and a great value play when grudge would be bad. I think for now I'm gonna leave the Kcommands in the board.
The sideboard though is pretty messy. I'm kinda not sure what to do here because I don't have enough testing with a build like this. Assuming that you had to play the above maindeck with +1 LotV and -1 Scooze, what 15 cards would you play for the sideboard?
I'll post the sideboard below in a spoiler, but if you would, please think about what you would run in the board before looking:
UMerfolkGBW
Melira PodRIPGBW Abzan Midrange
GBR Jund Midrange
EDH
GBR Prossh
Honestly, it is encouraging to see this.
Jadine Klomparens list: http://www.starcitygames.com/decks/120936
Jessy Hefner's List: http://www.starcitygames.com/decks/120964
Sorry I am too lazy to format their lists.