To answer your last question: Personally, it's because I don't want and am not comfortable with "variance" from the "best" card in my deck.
So BBE hasnt been great for you on average? I know there is variance, but, for me, if the average is a little bit over the top and the worst case is just a hasty 3/2 creature it probably can still trade 1-for-1 (which is the baseline for our deck) I am more than happy. In that sense variance reaches from ok to insane. Also to add, we should not just use BBE as answers for opponents threats, unless we are in a desperate position and need a specific card to turn things around. In that sense the variance is also not very bothering, if you just don't rely on the cascade card too much.
Thanks for the tutorial. I know what it's capable of. I also know what I want if something is supposedly the best card in my deck for each deck I play. There are other problems with your supposition, but I'm not going to get into that.
I ran the 24 land, 12 1-cmc spell build tonight at an event and I gotta say I dislike it now. In 8 games, I failed to hit 4 lands on turn 4 on 3 of them. That's almost 50% of the time.
Not to call you out specifically here, wtyyy, but this is a perfect example of a fundamental problem with the 24/25 land discussion on this thread.
Probably, none of us have personal gameplay experience with a statistically significant sample size to say whether 24 or 25 lands are correct for BBE Jund. There's just no way to pull that kind of signal out of the variance noise, with a sample size of fewer than thousands of games. It's probably also worth mentioning that 3/8 is 37.5%, far closer to 1/3 than it is to 1/2. It is not correct (though it is totally understandable) to draw conclusions from one night's experience.
Frank Karsten has done the best work on this, as I'm sure most of us have heard. He can quantify--and has quantified--for us the chance that we'll play land #4 on T4. According to his data from his particular experimental conditions, the odds are:
24 lands: 80.6% on the draw / 71.3% on the play
25 lands: 83.5% on the draw / 74.7% on the play
So the 24/25 land delta is less than three percent. This means you'd expect it to matter exactly once every 33-34 games. How could we individual players observe this difference in practice? We can't, not really.
Add to this the fastland/tapland effect. In a 25 land build, a land you draw has a 4% chance to be any one of your specific land cards. If you run nine total T4 CIPT (comes into play tapped on T4) lands, then you have a base 8% higher chance to topdeck a land that doesn't help you on T4, compared to running the same list but only seven T4 CIPT lands. (Yes I get that 8% is actually incorrect but I am shortcutting here.) You can balance the types of lands you run against the number of lands you run, to get to your own target likelihood of landing BBE on turn 4.
The way I think one makes a case here, is to consider the data provided by large and carefully gathered data sets. All told, you could arguably change your odds of playing a BBE on T4 (assuming you have it in hand of course!) by roughly one game in every eight by going from one extreme (24 lands with nine T4 CIPT lands, which nobody actually runs) to the other (25 lands with seven T4 CIPT lands--nobody actually runs this either). Anyone who is between these extremes is making changes that definitely matter, for sure. But they are not making changes that will show up at FNM, or even more than once or twice during a 15 round GP.
hit the nail on the head. the discussions here about mana base are good but we have to recognize that it is all anecdotal and almost impossible to draw a mathematically optimal conclusion.
That being said, i find it very hard to justify running 25 lands in a deck with an average converted mana cost of 2.11. I notice a lot of decision points are made because players want to cast their BBEs on 4 but honestly that is not as crucial as something like getting to 4 for cryptic command. Just for fun, UW control runs 25 and they are much more dependent on their four drops.
In the end, its about weighing the costs of being mana screwed and mana flooded. Jund can function on three lands. I like my chances of winning far more while being stuck on three compared to drawing too many lands.
I’m replacing my abrupt decays with maelstrom pulses and my terminates with fatal pushes. I just feel like with Jace, lingering souls, Karn, delve creatures, and Eldrazi pulse is better, and we me running more pulses I don’t need terminate over push. I usually want to play goyf or Bob turn 2 anyway.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
On the subject of artwork, I like the eternal masters art the best. I love how the persepective is that of BBE jumping from a tree and killing you. I also think it represents BBE the best as unrelenting aggression. The other cards just show her looking into the distance, which seems more complentative than hasty.
I usually like original artwork the best. I have original goyf, bobs, and thoughtseize and love them, but the original BBE is my least favorite art. I asked my wife which art she likes the best and she said, “the eternal masters one. Her tits look the best in that one.” 😂
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
- What are your basics of choice (as in what sets) for this deck and why?
For a long time I was running Unhinged basics. I recently stepped away from the full arts and went with the old border basics. The shiny rectangular frames match my other cards and I find it has a more classic look.
- Which Terminate do y’all run?
Alara Reborn. The color of the gold border matches the rest of the other gold cards in the deck. The old frame gold cards don't and I find are washed out and less colorful.
- Has anyone sprung for fancy Lightning Bolts?
Yes - Judge Rewards foil bolts only way to go and look awesome with the BBE's
- Does everyone run the FNM BBE’s? If not, is it because you prefer another set/art or you just can’t find them at the moment?
I like the FNM Bloodbraid Elf. The picture and the red background go well with the Lightning Bolts in my deck - very complemetary.
Here is a pic of my current list. I have been trying to consolidate the choice between 25 or 24 lands, supporting four 4-drops, and still wanting some sort of card advantage engine that the fourth BBE would have. So I chose a Tireless Tracker which I ran before the unbans. Fatal Push is still excellent and the Jund mirror is more common now. Two forests instead of a mountain because feeding Scooze and playing Kitchen Finks on curve without shocking is more likely to need to happen then a Field of Ruin situation or a Bolt (and there's only 3).
So BBE hasnt been great for you on average? I know there is variance, but, for me, if the average is a little bit over the top and the worst case is just a hasty 3/2 creature it probably can still trade 1-for-1 (which is the baseline for our deck) I am more than happy. In that sense variance reaches from ok to insane. Also to add, we should not just use BBE as answers for opponents threats, unless we are in a desperate position and need a specific card to turn things around. In that sense the variance is also not very bothering, if you just don't rely on the cascade card too much.
All this and also one thing that is easy to not notice while cascading: it removes all the (unnecessary?) lands from the top of your deck, and even if you do hit IoK with cascade on turn 12, hey, atleast you are not drawing that IoK on the next draw step. So effect to your coming draws is also huge.
Regarding artwork topic:
Always original art, also with BBE. I think the Argyle art on BBE is too fancy, nothing "bloodbraidish" in that elf, it would better fit for some GW coloured elf.
Just pulled the trigger and ordered beta basics.. insane to pay ~10€ for a basic land, but couldnt help myself..
Lightning bolts are altered fourth edition ones, damn those beta bolts are also getting quite expensive!
To answer your last question: Personally, it's because I don't want and am not comfortable with "variance" from the "best" card in my deck.
I think one just needs to adjust their expectations from the cascade hit.
Here's what you're guarenteed from the cascade:
1. Any potential lands will go to bottom. This means if you have plenty of lands (more than you can use) you are moving dead draws to the bottom of the deck.
2. 4+ CMC cards will go to bottom. This is one of the reasons I try to avoid playing any other 4 drops than BBE, especially in the board. Usually the 4 CMC spells would be huge impact, and I don't want to potentially put those on the bottom of my deck, having to shuffle that and potentially a bunch of lands back in the deck.
3. You will hit some card that you can cast. If you choose not to cast it because the card would be actively bad for you (TS on low life, etc) then at least now that too is on the bottom of the deck and you won't draw it.
One could argue that your chances of drawing a land next turn is the same as it would be otherwise, seeing as you've now moved the top spell away from the deck. Without doing all the math involved I would expect that not to be the case on average. For every land you put on the bottom you've effectively dropped the percentage of drawing a land by the same amount as you would have if you removed that land from the deck (until you shuffle again).
It's a free spell, it's a two for one and it has the potential to help you "fix" your draws. It is clear that if you expect it to always cascade into just the card/kind of card you need, then there will be tons of variance. If, however, you expect just some of the things listed here, then you will be in great shape, and then the card truly does become the best card in the deck.
Personally, it's because I don't want and am not comfortable with "variance" from the "best" card in my deck.
Variance is irrelevant if the average outcome is sufficiently good. If Bloodbraid Elf said "Roll a six-sided die. If you roll a 1 or a 2, you lose the game. Otherwise, you win the game.", it would be a no-brainer 4-of even though it's not far from literally the highest variance card that can theoretically exist (actual coin flip for the game win). Obviously it's not that good but I think it's clearly good enough that it's still a no-brainer 4-of.
Personally, it's because I don't want and am not comfortable with "variance" from the "best" card in my deck.
Variance is irrelevant if the average outcome is sufficiently good. If Bloodbraid Elf said "Roll a six-sided die. If you roll a 1 or a 2, you lose the game. Otherwise, you win the game.", it would be a no-brainer 4-of even though it's not far from literally the highest variance card that can theoretically exist (actual coin flip for the game win). Obviously it's not that good but I think it's clearly good enough that it's still a no-brainer 4-of.
And if it were remotely close to that, I wouldn't care. But it isn't.
On the art topic: I have a few of the cards in Japanese, notably the Goyfs and Lilianas, both original sets. Also my Last Hopes and a couple other cards (1 Fulminator) are in Japanese. Probably won't get all Japanese but never say never. I'm not Japanese, though I am learning it, can't quite read cards but I can make out some things. Also, my Lilianas, Fulminators, Overgrown Tombs, and Thoughtseizes (from Theros) are signed. Full signed Japanese would be nice.
Went 3-1 today with Jund, losing round 1 to Mardu Pyromancer and winning rounds 2-4 against Storm, Mono-U Merfolk, and Burn. Here is the list that I played
I liked the 9 fetchlands, as it gets me to 19 black sources and the mana felt a lot smoother when I could search for what I needed.
I didn't like the 3 IoK/3 TS, and will probably revert back to 4 IoK/2 TS.
I'm thinking of going to 1 Terminate and add another Bolt. I like the idea of having more reach as well as slightly lowering the curve, and especially in my local meta Terminate doesn't do a whole lot.
Since at least at my local event there were no Lantern, Tron, Affinity, or Hollow One in sight, as my local meta is a lot of U/W/x control and Burn, I'm probably going to take out one of the Ancient Grudges. Not sure what to add to take its place, my initial thoughts are the 2nd Maelstrom Pulse and Hazoret just cause I really like Hazoret.
Scooze was the MVP of the night, acting as graveyard hate against Storm and Mardu Pyromancer and then stabilizing against Merfolk and Burn. I really liked having 3 in the main and will probably stick with that, as well as 2 collective brutality 2 finks in the side.
I have another event on Sunday so I'll probably be running this list:
@lowekevin123: I really like your list. I would only add Terminate instead of 1 Push since I'm not comfortable with playing only one Terminate but that's just me. I want to have more answers to bigger threats. I'll going to try this list (main deck) with the mentioned change.
i'm not sure if I want 25 or 24 lands but since I really want third Ooze (it was performing really good for me) and don't know what else to cut for it I'll start with cutting a land and go from there depending on how it works.
That's fair, at least in my area I don't have to worry too much about bigger threats. I really like my list in that it's lowering the curve with 24 lands with 13 1-drop spells, which helps the deck run smoother game 1, and then sideboard into more expensive cards if needed. Not having Abrupt Decay is definitely a real cost, but I'm not sure what I'd take out to have one.
As for Owen's list, that's a lot of ETB tapped lands..
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Thanks for the tutorial. I know what it's capable of. I also know what I want if something is supposedly the best card in my deck for each deck I play. There are other problems with your supposition, but I'm not going to get into that.
That's just plain wrong.
hit the nail on the head. the discussions here about mana base are good but we have to recognize that it is all anecdotal and almost impossible to draw a mathematically optimal conclusion.
That being said, i find it very hard to justify running 25 lands in a deck with an average converted mana cost of 2.11. I notice a lot of decision points are made because players want to cast their BBEs on 4 but honestly that is not as crucial as something like getting to 4 for cryptic command. Just for fun, UW control runs 25 and they are much more dependent on their four drops.
In the end, its about weighing the costs of being mana screwed and mana flooded. Jund can function on three lands. I like my chances of winning far more while being stuck on three compared to drawing too many lands.
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Even then, I get stuck on 3, even 2 lands in a non negligible number of games though. It does not feel good that's for sure.
And then you see that most of the lists putting up results are on 25, then you start to wonder.
And perhaps the 1 and 3 msns polarization is smart.
I hate feeling so lost on this deck
I usually like original artwork the best. I have original goyf, bobs, and thoughtseize and love them, but the original BBE is my least favorite art. I asked my wife which art she likes the best and she said, “the eternal masters one. Her tits look the best in that one.” 😂
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
- What are your basics of choice (as in what sets) for this deck and why?
For a long time I was running Unhinged basics. I recently stepped away from the full arts and went with the old border basics. The shiny rectangular frames match my other cards and I find it has a more classic look.
- Which Terminate do y’all run?
Alara Reborn. The color of the gold border matches the rest of the other gold cards in the deck. The old frame gold cards don't and I find are washed out and less colorful.
- Has anyone sprung for fancy Lightning Bolts?
Yes - Judge Rewards foil bolts only way to go and look awesome with the BBE's
- Does everyone run the FNM BBE’s? If not, is it because you prefer another set/art or you just can’t find them at the moment?
I like the FNM Bloodbraid Elf. The picture and the red background go well with the Lightning Bolts in my deck - very complemetary.
Here is a pic of my current list. I have been trying to consolidate the choice between 25 or 24 lands, supporting four 4-drops, and still wanting some sort of card advantage engine that the fourth BBE would have. So I chose a Tireless Tracker which I ran before the unbans. Fatal Push is still excellent and the Jund mirror is more common now. Two forests instead of a mountain because feeding Scooze and playing Kitchen Finks on curve without shocking is more likely to need to happen then a Field of Ruin situation or a Bolt (and there's only 3).
All this and also one thing that is easy to not notice while cascading: it removes all the (unnecessary?) lands from the top of your deck, and even if you do hit IoK with cascade on turn 12, hey, atleast you are not drawing that IoK on the next draw step. So effect to your coming draws is also huge.
Regarding artwork topic:
Always original art, also with BBE. I think the Argyle art on BBE is too fancy, nothing "bloodbraidish" in that elf, it would better fit for some GW coloured elf.
Just pulled the trigger and ordered beta basics.. insane to pay ~10€ for a basic land, but couldnt help myself..
Lightning bolts are altered fourth edition ones, damn those beta bolts are also getting quite expensive!
I think one just needs to adjust their expectations from the cascade hit.
Here's what you're guarenteed from the cascade:
1. Any potential lands will go to bottom. This means if you have plenty of lands (more than you can use) you are moving dead draws to the bottom of the deck.
2. 4+ CMC cards will go to bottom. This is one of the reasons I try to avoid playing any other 4 drops than BBE, especially in the board. Usually the 4 CMC spells would be huge impact, and I don't want to potentially put those on the bottom of my deck, having to shuffle that and potentially a bunch of lands back in the deck.
3. You will hit some card that you can cast. If you choose not to cast it because the card would be actively bad for you (TS on low life, etc) then at least now that too is on the bottom of the deck and you won't draw it.
One could argue that your chances of drawing a land next turn is the same as it would be otherwise, seeing as you've now moved the top spell away from the deck. Without doing all the math involved I would expect that not to be the case on average. For every land you put on the bottom you've effectively dropped the percentage of drawing a land by the same amount as you would have if you removed that land from the deck (until you shuffle again).
It's a free spell, it's a two for one and it has the potential to help you "fix" your draws. It is clear that if you expect it to always cascade into just the card/kind of card you need, then there will be tons of variance. If, however, you expect just some of the things listed here, then you will be in great shape, and then the card truly does become the best card in the deck.
And if it were remotely close to that, I wouldn't care. But it isn't.
Should we be thinking about going to 3x bolts for a push?
Our deck just seems so soft to delver threats and even shadow itself.
It'd be nice to fit in at least 3 pushes without cutting things like decay
Tried Reid's list today and beat a bant company deck, especially with a hand that had 5 lands, a Bob and grim lava.
Grixis Death's Shadow, Jund, UW Tron, Jeskai Control, Storm, Counters Company, Eldrazi Tron, Affinity, Living End, Infect, Merfolk, Dredge, Ad Nauseam, Amulet, Bogles, Eldrazi Tron, Mono U Tron, Lantern, Mardu Pyromancer
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Dark Confidant
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Bloodbraid Elf
Lands (24)
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Raging Ravine
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Twilight Mire
3 Fatal Push
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Terminate
2 Kolaghan’s Command
Planeswalkers (4)
4 Liliana of the Veil
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Collective Brutality
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Kitchen Finks
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Kolaghan’s Command
1 Golgari Charm
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Grim Lavamancer
Some changes and thoughts going forward:
I have another event on Sunday so I'll probably be running this list:
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Dark Confidant
3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Bloodbraid Elf
Lands (24)
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Raging Ravine
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Blood Crypt
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Twilight Mire
3 Fatal Push
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
1 Maelstrom Pulse
1 Terminate
2 Kolaghan’s Command
Planeswalkers (4)
4 Liliana of the Veil
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Collective Brutality
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Kitchen Finks
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Kolaghan’s Command
1 Golgari Charm
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Hazoret the Fervent/Maelstrom Pulse
Here is the list he proposed if you don't have Premium:
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Scavenging Ooze
4 Dark Confidant
4 Bloodbraid Elf
Land
4 Treetop Village
2 Twilight Mire
2 Raging Ravine
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Wooded Foothills
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Swamp
1 Mountain
1 Forest
3 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Fatal Push
Sorcery
2 Thoughtseize
2 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
Planeswalker
4 Liliana of the Veil
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Obstinate Baloth
2 Seal of Primordium
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Collective Brutality
That, and Seal of Primordium and Obstinate Baloth in the sideboard, though I guess the latter makes sense if you run Anger of the Gods, or for the Mirror Match.
WBC Eldrazi & Taxes CBW
UR Keep on Cantripin' (UR Phoenix) RU
WU Surprise! It's not UW Control! (UW Midrange) UW
BG The Rock, Straight BG
U Mono-Blue Fish U
RBW Mardu Pyromancer BWR
RG Rabble! Rabble! (GR Blood Moon Aggro) GR
Legacy
W Death & Taxes W
That's fair, at least in my area I don't have to worry too much about bigger threats. I really like my list in that it's lowering the curve with 24 lands with 13 1-drop spells, which helps the deck run smoother game 1, and then sideboard into more expensive cards if needed. Not having Abrupt Decay is definitely a real cost, but I'm not sure what I'd take out to have one.
As for Owen's list, that's a lot of ETB tapped lands..