The problem with rejection is that you will draw less rejections in your opening than etron will with chalice...
So what? I'll counter their Chalice (on T2 with Rejection, Spell Snare, Mana Leak, Negate, etc). I could say, the problem with Chalice is that Jeskai will always have more counters than they draw Chalice.
they will also have more caverns(map). they have 10 ways to deal with it.. and your targets will only be karn and ballista...
How are they casting map through my Rejection? In your fantasy they draw all the best plays and we have nothing? Mapping for Cavern is not the end of the world. It slows them down if they aren't going for Eldrazi Temple so that's a win of sorts and my Rejections can still hit Chalice, other maps, O-Stone, Karn, Ugin, etc.
its also better than rejection in the other artifact matchups... proactive is almost always where you want to be...
Relic isn't proactive. Relic is waiting to crack in response to something threatening or cycling for a card. It's lack luster. Rejection is the nuts against any artifact deck considering you run 4 Snapcaster mage. Relic isn't even good in artifact matchups.
[quote from="djphan25 »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/tier-2-modern/728834-jeskai-control?comment=3459"]Im not here to convince ppl that these are the best cards in the matchup.. but rather introduce a diff way to think about it... i dont think any jeskai pilot is having luck against etron so i think exploring less talked about options is healthy...
But you are talking about using hihgly ineffective cards against decks that can run those cards over. THoughtknot seer, reality smasher, karn, and Ugin don't care about Stony and stony isn't that hard for Eldrazi Tron to remove if it's really a pain in the butt for them. Stony has gotten much worse with the lack of Affinity and Urzatron.
i play mostly on modo so i have played every matchup extensively so its not coming from just theory... im also not a perfect player which is why i think these discussions can help not only me but for others...
I really dont think you are arguing in an effective manner... but ill put that aside for now... context matters so i can see how you or others might not like stony... i probably play a diff list than most and thats fine.. i like my results and have fun with it..
But i do think recent tourney results sort of back me up on the overall theme... that you should be picking your battles elsewhere... we can argue over card choices but there are other matchups where those slots matter more and actually move the needle...
I will just say that I don't think most jeskai lists should play stony silence at all.
Affinity is a great matchup, and cards like rejection, wear//tear, anger, verdict, staticaster, etc, all handle them quite well.
Against tron, we have better tools as well. Counterspells for both versions, and kill spells for eldrazi. Some land destruction (seas is probably the most popular) will also be effective.
Yea, there is lantern, but between cards like negate, runed halo/leyline, rejection, wear/tear, clique/queller, etc, we have something, and besides, its not a terribly popular deck anyways, so being an underdog isn't terribly worrying.
So that being said, you should definitely pick your battles away from stony silence. Its not really worth the sideboard space here, IMO.
Yea, who cares about those cards. Prismatic omen is the only one that bothers me, and they run 0-1. If it matters, we have other counterspells, and can always cryptic bounce it.
I would want spell snare on the draw Vs. Valakut 100% of the time. No matter what approach you take to the MU it's always a race - you won't have a spreading seas for every one of their valakut copies and they WILL get there somewhere between turns 4 and 6. If you aren't slowing them down on turns 1-2 before dropping a geist or queller then it's much harder to win. I prefer shadow of doubt for this job but it doesn't have the best utility in other match-ups like spell snare.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks
------------ URW Jeskai Control GUWRB Amulet Titan GR Ponza
It has a bunch of ramp (steve, khalni heart, farseek, prismatic omen, sometimes some board cards) but you should board out snare there.
Every Valakut deck is so different. The only thing guaranteed in most of them is a playset of STE and some number of Farseek. That's it. It doesn't seem worth having Spell Snare. Maybe that's just me.
I'm in agreement that spell snare isn't a direct answer to Valakut decks, HOWEVER, having a spell snare on the draw for their T2 2-mana ramp is actually very powerful. If they have kept a hand with no 2-mana ramp then they are doing our job for us to be honest so I'm not fussed on what version they run. Heart Expedition and Omen versions have more targets it's true.
Many lists will run Explore on top of the usual Farseek so there is one more target not mentioned yet.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks
------------ URW Jeskai Control GUWRB Amulet Titan GR Ponza
Yea, I won't deny that being able to counter some of their early ramp is nice, but spell snare is too narrow in that matchup. It doesn't hit anything that actually matters.
Yea, best case its nice, worst case its dead, and having dead cards in that matchup is terrible. Even shadow of doubt is at worse going to cycle, not to mention it can still hit scapeshift/prime time trigger.
Yep. I get that :D. What do you think of Pia? What decks would you even side it in vs? 0_o
I'm thinking I might replace elspeth with it though.
@axman
I'm thinking that Firer would use Pia and Kiran Nalaar for midrange MU's. Lots of bodies, repeatable removal and reach. Smells like value for Jeskai vs. Midrange... definately would be more playable in more MU's than Elspeth.
Edit; he also brought it in in the finals Vs. the mirror.
I talked to Harlan about the deck about this weekend. I told him I was running 2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar in the board and he said he tested them and decided that he liked Pia and Kiran more since it was a harder to answer threat.
Yea, who cares about those cards. Prismatic omen is the only one that bothers me, and they run 0-1. If it matters, we have other counterspells, and can always cryptic bounce it.
Yea, I won't deny that being able to counter some of their early ramp is nice, but spell snare is too narrow in that matchup. It doesn't hit anything that actually matters.
Yea, best case its nice, worst case its dead, and having dead cards in that matchup is terrible. Even shadow of doubt is at worse going to cycle, not to mention it can still hit scapeshift/prime time trigger.
Before siding out Snare, aren't Path or Electrolyze much more dead cards in that matchup?
Card choices are going to vary person to person and deck to deck.... how one views the meta is going to vary widely...
I favor stony because affinity is almost always popular and there happens to be another t1 deck that uses artifacts...
But you also get incidental hate against lantern and ad nauseam and its effectiveness there and the difficulty that jeskai has with them is what leads me to devote a board spot to stony.. then you have other random artifact jank.. i estimate everything combined to be about 15% of the online meta more or less...
But others may view things differently... i think 2 stony's may be overkill but i like having as much proactive hate to cover as much matchups as possible... i dont think anyone is definitely right or wrong in any case..
To illustrate that point.. The guy who finished 1st in the scg open played no copies of stony but the guy who finished second played 2..
U dont really have to seas their valakuts.Targeting a stomping or a cinder glade is effective and slows them down
This is entirely wrong. Spreading Seas is usually a 2 mana redraw when spent on a non-Valakut land of theirs. The explanation is obvious. They play Valakut and then kill you with Scapeshift or with Valakut triggers the same way.
If you play Spreading Seas, 99% of the time keep it for Valakut, The Molten Pinnacle unless if they re colour screwed, which is super unlikely.
the problem is they don't need all 4 the valakuts to kill so it's unlikely that you will be able to put it on the molten pinnacle. That's the main reason I don't have a single copy of spreading seas in main deck or side. Usually if you sesolve a geist on t3 and keep attacking with countermagic backing you up u are in a great spot
As someone who has played against Scapeshift and Titanshift a ton I think Spreading Seas is not much better than a redraw. It doesn't matter if you put it on a valukut (rarely happens anyway) They just sac all their lands and kill you. Or cast Titan and get two more.
A little late but I've been sick, short report on my run at MKM. All in all it went... fine. I got a lot of bad beats with harsh matchups and some ungodly poor luck, ending at 6-3 winning nothing but the flu
Match 1 vs Abzan
Game 1 was a huge grind, and my opponent had his singleton Maelstrom Pulse when I dropped Nahiri to stabilize. I ended up scooping to Sorin, Solemn Visitor
Game 2 was turn 4 Nahiri, Turn 5 Verdict, Turn 6 victory
Game 3 I had to mulligan to a 5 card nolander with SV, scried a land to the top and got actually pretty close to stabilizing but of course it wasn't enough
0-1
Match 2 vs Jund Death Shadow
Game 1 opponent misplays, casting Death Shadow, asking me whether it resolves and then wanting to crack his fetch to go to 10 life. I say he's not allowed to as he passed priority and the Death Shadow enters as a 0/0. I win with Nahiri Ult
Game 2 was depressing. I have Nahiri on 4 and my opponent hellbent, with a Verdict in hand. He topdecks his singleton Hazoret the Fervent and kills Nahiri. I lose to LotV ultimate
Game 3 I soundly misplayed, keeping a very bad opening 7 (2 lands with nothing to cast but a snapcaster). I get away with it though and topdeck 2 paths in a row, win with Nahiri ult
1-1
Match 3 burn
Game 1 mull to 5, stabilize with Snap + Lightning Helix, drop Nahiri and know I will win if I untap but my opponent draws the third land he needed and I get Boros Charm + Shard Volley'd for lethal
Game 2 Geist beats plus helix
Game 3 Geist beats plus helix
2-1
M4 vs Abzan
Sort of a little kid variant, a ton of creatures including Siege Rhino
G1 I my opponent leads on Noble Hierarch and I expect Counter Company, I Clique in his upkeep to get clique in before coco becomes a danger. I see two Voice of Resurgence and 2 Siege Rhinos which makes my hand of flash creatures and counterspells rather crappy. Lose to rhino beats
G2 keep 3 lands and didn't draw the fourth one until turn 7-8. finally stabilize with Verdict and Nahiri. My opponent makes a cool play where he paths his own lingering souls token, so he can untap to maelstrom pulse the spreading seas on his Stirring Wildwood and hit me for lethal together with a 2/1 finks.
2-2
Match 5 vs classic jeskai control
G1 classic eot snap burn to bait, untap for Nahiri. Nahiri eats a ton of burn but never dies and ults for the win
G2 we fight over a Nahiri for a long time and eventually she gets detsphered, I untap to drop Geist who wins the game in two hits
3-2
Match 6 vs Abzan
Game 1 he had double lingering souls and just outgrinded me with it
Game 2 I had basically the perfect opener, land land rip remand seas verdict nahiri. The rip sticks making my opponent's scooze and grim flayer bears, but I don't draw a fourth land NOR removal for like eight turns, dying with 3 Nahiris in hand. Very depressing.
3-3
Match 7 UW control
Game 1 I get massivaly out-CA'd and taken off red entirely (mountain and both vents spreading seas'd, foundry tec'd) so I concede
Game 2 I get to drop Nahiri with counter backup and get to ult her after some fighting over cryptics
Game 3 my opener is geist, two nahiri and 4 lands, I just jam them until one sticks. Win with Nahiri ult
4-3
Match 8 Retreat to Coralhelm combo
Game 1 I get massively blown out by one of my Spell Quellers getting pathed, I don't remember the exact sequence but I died to it
Game 2 very long Nahiri grind with my opponent hitting my Nahiri with a Noble Hierarch every turn. But I get her to 8 nonetheless and ult for lethal
Game 3 was tense as quite early Spell Queller exiles a Retreat to Coralhelm, and for the last 3 turns my opponent has a 6/6 Knight of the Reliquary that I lose to if my Queller dies. I win in turn 4 of round time
5-3
Match 8 Abzan
Game 1 my opponent mulls to 4 and does nothing, I see an Overgrown Tomb and an Inquisition of Kozilek
Game 2 turn 2 Rest in Peace, turn 4 Verdict, Turn 5 Nahiri for lethal
6-3
In the end no matter how hard you metagame you can always just run into the four people who insist on playing Abzan with Lingering Souls. I think the list did well though. I'm not certain about the Spreading Seas, I brought them in a lot vs the decks that had manlands, but they were kind of underwhelming. Quellers were awkward for most of the day, but I played a very unconventional part of the meta I would say. I am pretty satisfied that I managed to play consistently over the course of nine flipping rounds when I was worried about fatigue setting in.
The big question was whether Nahiri performed, and I would want to say she performed fantastically. 9 out of the 13 games I won with a Nahiri ultimate and in most other games she was an important factor. Although as I said before, I did not really play against what I would say was an average slice of the metagame.
A little late but I've been sick, short report on my run at MKM. All in all it went... fine. I got a lot of bad beats with harsh matchups and some ungodly poor luck, ending at 6-3 winning nothing but the flu
Match 1 vs Abzan
Game 1 was a huge grind, and my opponent had his singleton Maelstrom Pulse when I dropped Nahiri to stabilize. I ended up scooping to Sorin, Solemn Visitor
Game 2 was turn 4 Nahiri, Turn 5 Verdict, Turn 6 victory
Game 3 I had to mulligan to a 5 card nolander with SV, scried a land to the top and got actually pretty close to stabilizing but of course it wasn't enough
0-1
Match 2 vs Jund Death Shadow
Game 1 opponent misplays, casting Death Shadow, asking me whether it resolves and then wanting to crack his fetch to go to 10 life. I say he's not allowed to as he passed priority and the Death Shadow enters as a 0/0. I win with Nahiri Ult
Game 2 was depressing. I have Nahiri on 4 and my opponent hellbent, with a Verdict in hand. He topdecks his singleton Hazoret the Fervent and kills Nahiri. I lose to LotV ultimate
Game 3 I soundly misplayed, keeping a very bad opening 7 (2 lands with nothing to cast but a snapcaster). I get away with it though and topdeck 2 paths in a row, win with Nahiri ult
1-1
Match 3 burn
Game 1 mull to 5, stabilize with Snap + Lightning Helix, drop Nahiri and know I will win if I untap but my opponent draws the third land he needed and I get Boros Charm + Shard Volley'd for lethal
Game 2 Geist beats plus helix
Game 3 Geist beats plus helix
2-1
M4 vs Abzan
Sort of a little kid variant, a ton of creatures including Siege Rhino
G1 I my opponent leads on Noble Hierarch and I expect Counter Company, I Clique in his upkeep to get clique in before coco becomes a danger. I see two Voice of Resurgence and 2 Siege Rhinos which makes my hand of flash creatures and counterspells rather crappy. Lose to rhino beats
G2 keep 3 lands and didn't draw the fourth one until turn 7-8. finally stabilize with Verdict and Nahiri. My opponent makes a cool play where he paths his own lingering souls token, so he can untap to maelstrom pulse the spreading seas on his Stirring Wildwood and hit me for lethal together with a 2/1 finks.
2-2
Match 5 vs classic jeskai control
G1 classic eot snap burn to bait, untap for Nahiri. Nahiri eats a ton of burn but never dies and ults for the win
G2 we fight over a Nahiri for a long time and eventually she gets detsphered, I untap to drop Geist who wins the game in two hits
3-2
Match 6 vs Abzan
Game 1 he had double lingering souls and just outgrinded me with it
Game 2 I had basically the perfect opener, land land rip remand seas verdict nahiri. The rip sticks making my opponent's scooze and grim flayer bears, but I don't draw a fourth land NOR removal for like eight turns, dying with 3 Nahiris in hand. Very depressing.
3-3
Match 7 UW control
Game 1 I get massivaly out-CA'd and taken off red entirely (mountain and both vents spreading seas'd, foundry tec'd) so I concede
Game 2 I get to drop Nahiri with counter backup and get to ult her after some fighting over cryptics
Game 3 my opener is geist, two nahiri and 4 lands, I just jam them until one sticks. Win with Nahiri ult
4-3
Match 8 Retreat to Coralhelm combo
Game 1 I get massively blown out by one of my Spell Quellers getting pathed, I don't remember the exact sequence but I died to it
Game 2 very long Nahiri grind with my opponent hitting my Nahiri with a Noble Hierarch every turn. But I get her to 8 nonetheless and ult for lethal
Game 3 was tense as quite early Spell Queller exiles a Retreat to Coralhelm, and for the last 3 turns my opponent has a 6/6 Knight of the Reliquary that I lose to if my Queller dies. I win in turn 4 of round time
5-3
Match 8 Abzan
Game 1 my opponent mulls to 4 and does nothing, I see an Overgrown Tomb and an Inquisition of Kozilek
Game 2 turn 2 Rest in Peace, turn 4 Verdict, Turn 5 Nahiri for lethal
6-3
In the end no matter how hard you metagame you can always just run into the four people who insist on playing Abzan with Lingering Souls. I think the list did well though. I'm not certain about the Spreading Seas, I brought them in a lot vs the decks that had manlands, but they were kind of underwhelming. Quellers were awkward for most of the day, but I played a very unconventional part of the meta I would say. I am pretty satisfied that I managed to play consistently over the course of nine flipping rounds when I was worried about fatigue setting in.
The big question was whether Nahiri performed, and I would want to say she performed fantastically. 9 out of the 13 games I won with a Nahiri ultimate and in most other games she was an important factor. Although as I said before, I did not really play against what I would say was an average slice of the metagame.
Your list is very soft to souls. In that meta electrolyze is fine. I think any meta likes Staticaster at the moment. I see you are not playing explosives which is also fine against souls and Lilianas, cage, pithing needle, etc.
The problem with rejection is that you will draw less rejections in your opening than etron will with chalice...
Why? What do you base that on?
Unfortunately unlike Harlan I can't afford to hope to dodge E Tron, at least in my are, it's the second/third most played deck and you have to deal with it. Anyway, I think he did have a plan for E Tron, it just didn't involve Rejection.
I've played against them a ton of times: Ceremonious Rejection is by far the best card we can sideboard against them. Leagues better than Stony Silence. Spreading Seas is also more important than Stony Silence.
Of course the best thing is not having to play against them at all, but since we have to, better be prepared.
Disdainful Stroke does deal with both deck (E Tron and Valakut), which is good, but I since I feel I still need Spreading Seas (a card Harlan almost never plays), I already have that plan for Valakut and therefore like to have the very best card vs E Tron.
I disagree that Spell Snare is a good card vs Valakut decks. It's very mediocre.
I don't think stony is there in the sb for this MU specifically. You board that in simply because you have it and have worse cards in the main to replace. The statement was right: you will always draw less rejections than opponent draws calices, that's a statistical fact: unless you play with 4 copies of rejection in the sb (which I exclude) simply because chalice is a 4 of kn their deck and if they happen to jam chalice before you draw rej that that it's another dead draw among the others
That's not a statistical fact. You are talking about some long-term probability. I can draw my three of more than you draw your four of over thousands of games and still be within a perfectly normal statistical distribution.
i was hoping to bury this discussion but here are the numbers:
etron lists plays 2 caverns + 4 maps + 4 chalices.... that's 10 ways to make rejection close to useless... and that's an 87% probability to draw just one of those pieces in the first 3 turns... 65% for 2...
If you play rejection... even as a 4 of... that's a 57% chance of drawing in the first 3 turns... that's a massive difference... and the odds of drawing 2 is a measley 12%....
you cannot trade one for one.... the whole deck is colorless which means you will eventually run out of rejections and counters and ways to deal with their threats... something that you cannot handle will eventually resolve... which i'm sure is a common feeling amongst everyone who has actually played it... and the question is whether or not you can win before that happens... that is why proactive is almost always better... you resolve something and you don't have to spend mana or cards later in the game to address a threat...
i mean you will have games where you might feel pretty good... that's what happens when the answers line up... but it's not going to happen nearly enough times.... is 4 rejections leading to close to positive win percentages against them? i guarantee that's not happening.. at least over a large enough sample...
i never actually said stony is the best card against them... but it's better elsewhere and happens to be useful here....
i'm not abhorring others card choices... ppl will be successful with or without x or y card... it happens all the time... there are sometimes very clear choices... and others it's sort of in between... but i think ppl should stop talking about their choices as being the best... because clearly that's not the case all the time... just a little over a year ago i had ppl tell me that logic knot was clearly worse than mana leak and remand.... not everyone's experience is going to be the same as yours.. and nobody will think the same as you... if anything this should be a forum to discuss options openly and discuss its merits... or it could be a forum where everyone thinks they know more than everyone else...
That's not a statistical fact. You are talking about some long-term probability. I can draw my three of more than you draw your four of over thousands of games and still be within a perfectly normal statistical distribution.
so is variance and luck what you depend on? that's what you're saying... why aren't your 4-ofs, 3-ofs in your deck if you truly feel that way?
I'm jumping on the Jeskai bandwagon. I've love Spell Queller for a while and intended to build into the jeskai flash builds a year ago, but got a bit side tracked when Fatal Push got spoiled. This is the list I will probably start with once Ixalan is legal. I'm cutting 2 lands and a lightning bolt for 3 opt over Harlan's list. Sideboard to be determined as I play more.
How are they casting map through my Rejection? In your fantasy they draw all the best plays and we have nothing? Mapping for Cavern is not the end of the world. It slows them down if they aren't going for Eldrazi Temple so that's a win of sorts and my Rejections can still hit Chalice, other maps, O-Stone, Karn, Ugin, etc.
Stony doesn't slow them down. It costs two mana to cast. I could have already used Rejection on T1 and had up another counter on T2.
Yes, and we counter it...with Rejection
It doesn't really hose ballista. They can still cast a huge walking ballista and hit us with it.
Correct! Relic is not a good card for Jeskai.
But you are talking about using hihgly ineffective cards against decks that can run those cards over. THoughtknot seer, reality smasher, karn, and Ugin don't care about Stony and stony isn't that hard for Eldrazi Tron to remove if it's really a pain in the butt for them. Stony has gotten much worse with the lack of Affinity and Urzatron. Ok, I'm glad you are here to learn!
But i do think recent tourney results sort of back me up on the overall theme... that you should be picking your battles elsewhere... we can argue over card choices but there are other matchups where those slots matter more and actually move the needle...
Affinity is a great matchup, and cards like rejection, wear//tear, anger, verdict, staticaster, etc, all handle them quite well.
Against tron, we have better tools as well. Counterspells for both versions, and kill spells for eldrazi. Some land destruction (seas is probably the most popular) will also be effective.
Yea, there is lantern, but between cards like negate, runed halo/leyline, rejection, wear/tear, clique/queller, etc, we have something, and besides, its not a terribly popular deck anyways, so being an underdog isn't terribly worrying.
So that being said, you should definitely pick your battles away from stony silence. Its not really worth the sideboard space here, IMO.
I would want spell snare on the draw Vs. Valakut 100% of the time. No matter what approach you take to the MU it's always a race - you won't have a spreading seas for every one of their valakut copies and they WILL get there somewhere between turns 4 and 6. If you aren't slowing them down on turns 1-2 before dropping a geist or queller then it's much harder to win. I prefer shadow of doubt for this job but it doesn't have the best utility in other match-ups like spell snare.
------------
URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
Every Valakut deck is so different. The only thing guaranteed in most of them is a playset of STE and some number of Farseek. That's it. It doesn't seem worth having Spell Snare. Maybe that's just me.
Many lists will run Explore on top of the usual Farseek so there is one more target not mentioned yet.
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URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
Yea, best case its nice, worst case its dead, and having dead cards in that matchup is terrible. Even shadow of doubt is at worse going to cycle, not to mention it can still hit scapeshift/prime time trigger.
@axman
I'm thinking that Firer would use Pia and Kiran Nalaar for midrange MU's. Lots of bodies, repeatable removal and reach. Smells like value for Jeskai vs. Midrange... definately would be more playable in more MU's than Elspeth.
Edit; he also brought it in in the finals Vs. the mirror.
------------
URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
UW Control
UWR Geist
UWR Control
Sorry but Prismatic Omen is 2 in all lists now.
RG Titan Scapeshift GR
UBWAd Nauseam WBU
CEldrazi TronC
Before siding out Snare, aren't Path or Electrolyze much more dead cards in that matchup?
I favor stony because affinity is almost always popular and there happens to be another t1 deck that uses artifacts...
But you also get incidental hate against lantern and ad nauseam and its effectiveness there and the difficulty that jeskai has with them is what leads me to devote a board spot to stony.. then you have other random artifact jank.. i estimate everything combined to be about 15% of the online meta more or less...
But others may view things differently... i think 2 stony's may be overkill but i like having as much proactive hate to cover as much matchups as possible... i dont think anyone is definitely right or wrong in any case..
To illustrate that point.. The guy who finished 1st in the scg open played no copies of stony but the guy who finished second played 2..
As someone who has played against Scapeshift and Titanshift a ton I think Spreading Seas is not much better than a redraw. It doesn't matter if you put it on a valukut (rarely happens anyway) They just sac all their lands and kill you. Or cast Titan and get two more.
Seas does nothing.
List:
// 9 Creature
3 Spell Queller
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Snapcaster Mage
// 1 Enchantment
1 Cast Out
// 17 Instant
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Lightning Helix
4 Path to Exile
3 Mana Leak
1 Remand
1 Negate
1 Spell Snare
// 4 Planeswalker
4 Nahiri, the Harbinger
// 6 Sorcery
2 Supreme Verdict
4 Serum Visions
1 Tectonic Edge
2 Scalding Tarn
4 Flooded Strand
2 Arid Mesa
2 Island
1 Plains
1 Mountain
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Steam Vents
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Glacial Fortress
1 Sulfur Falls
3 Celestial Colonnade
2 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Rest in Peace
3 Spreading Seas
1 Stony Silence
1 Celestial Purge
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Counterflux
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Dispel
1 Supreme Verdict
Match 1 vs Abzan
Game 1 was a huge grind, and my opponent had his singleton Maelstrom Pulse when I dropped Nahiri to stabilize. I ended up scooping to Sorin, Solemn Visitor
Game 2 was turn 4 Nahiri, Turn 5 Verdict, Turn 6 victory
Game 3 I had to mulligan to a 5 card nolander with SV, scried a land to the top and got actually pretty close to stabilizing but of course it wasn't enough
0-1
Match 2 vs Jund Death Shadow
Game 1 opponent misplays, casting Death Shadow, asking me whether it resolves and then wanting to crack his fetch to go to 10 life. I say he's not allowed to as he passed priority and the Death Shadow enters as a 0/0. I win with Nahiri Ult
Game 2 was depressing. I have Nahiri on 4 and my opponent hellbent, with a Verdict in hand. He topdecks his singleton Hazoret the Fervent and kills Nahiri. I lose to LotV ultimate
Game 3 I soundly misplayed, keeping a very bad opening 7 (2 lands with nothing to cast but a snapcaster). I get away with it though and topdeck 2 paths in a row, win with Nahiri ult
1-1
Match 3 burn
Game 1 mull to 5, stabilize with Snap + Lightning Helix, drop Nahiri and know I will win if I untap but my opponent draws the third land he needed and I get Boros Charm + Shard Volley'd for lethal
Game 2 Geist beats plus helix
Game 3 Geist beats plus helix
2-1
M4 vs Abzan
Sort of a little kid variant, a ton of creatures including Siege Rhino
G1 I my opponent leads on Noble Hierarch and I expect Counter Company, I Clique in his upkeep to get clique in before coco becomes a danger. I see two Voice of Resurgence and 2 Siege Rhinos which makes my hand of flash creatures and counterspells rather crappy. Lose to rhino beats
G2 keep 3 lands and didn't draw the fourth one until turn 7-8. finally stabilize with Verdict and Nahiri. My opponent makes a cool play where he paths his own lingering souls token, so he can untap to maelstrom pulse the spreading seas on his Stirring Wildwood and hit me for lethal together with a 2/1 finks.
2-2
Match 5 vs classic jeskai control
G1 classic eot snap burn to bait, untap for Nahiri. Nahiri eats a ton of burn but never dies and ults for the win
G2 we fight over a Nahiri for a long time and eventually she gets detsphered, I untap to drop Geist who wins the game in two hits
3-2
Match 6 vs Abzan
Game 1 he had double lingering souls and just outgrinded me with it
Game 2 I had basically the perfect opener, land land rip remand seas verdict nahiri. The rip sticks making my opponent's scooze and grim flayer bears, but I don't draw a fourth land NOR removal for like eight turns, dying with 3 Nahiris in hand. Very depressing.
3-3
Match 7 UW control
Game 1 I get massivaly out-CA'd and taken off red entirely (mountain and both vents spreading seas'd, foundry tec'd) so I concede
Game 2 I get to drop Nahiri with counter backup and get to ult her after some fighting over cryptics
Game 3 my opener is geist, two nahiri and 4 lands, I just jam them until one sticks. Win with Nahiri ult
4-3
Match 8 Retreat to Coralhelm combo
Game 1 I get massively blown out by one of my Spell Quellers getting pathed, I don't remember the exact sequence but I died to it
Game 2 very long Nahiri grind with my opponent hitting my Nahiri with a Noble Hierarch every turn. But I get her to 8 nonetheless and ult for lethal
Game 3 was tense as quite early Spell Queller exiles a Retreat to Coralhelm, and for the last 3 turns my opponent has a 6/6 Knight of the Reliquary that I lose to if my Queller dies. I win in turn 4 of round time
5-3
Match 8 Abzan
Game 1 my opponent mulls to 4 and does nothing, I see an Overgrown Tomb and an Inquisition of Kozilek
Game 2 turn 2 Rest in Peace, turn 4 Verdict, Turn 5 Nahiri for lethal
6-3
In the end no matter how hard you metagame you can always just run into the four people who insist on playing Abzan with Lingering Souls. I think the list did well though. I'm not certain about the Spreading Seas, I brought them in a lot vs the decks that had manlands, but they were kind of underwhelming. Quellers were awkward for most of the day, but I played a very unconventional part of the meta I would say. I am pretty satisfied that I managed to play consistently over the course of nine flipping rounds when I was worried about fatigue setting in.
The big question was whether Nahiri performed, and I would want to say she performed fantastically. 9 out of the 13 games I won with a Nahiri ultimate and in most other games she was an important factor. Although as I said before, I did not really play against what I would say was an average slice of the metagame.
Your list is very soft to souls. In that meta electrolyze is fine. I think any meta likes Staticaster at the moment. I see you are not playing explosives which is also fine against souls and Lilianas, cage, pithing needle, etc.
That's not a statistical fact. You are talking about some long-term probability. I can draw my three of more than you draw your four of over thousands of games and still be within a perfectly normal statistical distribution.
Stoney Silence is about a 3.5 (of ten) against Eldrazi Tron and Rejection is a 9. It's not close at all.
etron lists plays 2 caverns + 4 maps + 4 chalices.... that's 10 ways to make rejection close to useless... and that's an 87% probability to draw just one of those pieces in the first 3 turns... 65% for 2...
If you play rejection... even as a 4 of... that's a 57% chance of drawing in the first 3 turns... that's a massive difference... and the odds of drawing 2 is a measley 12%....
you cannot trade one for one.... the whole deck is colorless which means you will eventually run out of rejections and counters and ways to deal with their threats... something that you cannot handle will eventually resolve... which i'm sure is a common feeling amongst everyone who has actually played it... and the question is whether or not you can win before that happens... that is why proactive is almost always better... you resolve something and you don't have to spend mana or cards later in the game to address a threat...
i mean you will have games where you might feel pretty good... that's what happens when the answers line up... but it's not going to happen nearly enough times.... is 4 rejections leading to close to positive win percentages against them? i guarantee that's not happening.. at least over a large enough sample...
i never actually said stony is the best card against them... but it's better elsewhere and happens to be useful here....
i'm not abhorring others card choices... ppl will be successful with or without x or y card... it happens all the time... there are sometimes very clear choices... and others it's sort of in between... but i think ppl should stop talking about their choices as being the best... because clearly that's not the case all the time... just a little over a year ago i had ppl tell me that logic knot was clearly worse than mana leak and remand.... not everyone's experience is going to be the same as yours.. and nobody will think the same as you... if anything this should be a forum to discuss options openly and discuss its merits... or it could be a forum where everyone thinks they know more than everyone else...
so is variance and luck what you depend on? that's what you're saying... why aren't your 4-ofs, 3-ofs in your deck if you truly feel that way?
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Spell Queller
3 Geist of Saint Traft
Spells
3 Cryptic Command
2 Electrolyze
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Lightning Helix
3 Logic Knot
2 Spell Snare
4 Serum Visions
3 Opt
4 Path to Exile
2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls
edit was only 56 cards, was missing path to exile.