I disagree. Playing a 0/4 wall with narrow counter backup isn't were you want to be. Especially with the addition of Ancestral Vision to the deck in a metagame that is being really aggressive.
This evening I'm going to try to attempt something I've never done before.
Over the next four days I'm going to set up a gauntlet in Xmage and play against myself using 7 other archtypes (Burn, Scapeshift, Living End, Abzan Company, Jund, Infect, and Affinity).
VS each deck I'm going to play 100 games (25 pre-board, 75 post board). I am then going to document what cards I drew during each game, and whether or not I won that game.
After tabulating this information... I will run a simple logistic regression using excel to get an idea of how certain cards impact win percentages in specific matchups.
I will then use this information to construct my final 75 for states this weekend.
That is commitment right there. Just curious about how you'll use logistic regression. Are you gonna do it per card for everytime the card was in your opener when you won?
That is commitment right there. Just curious about how you'll use logistic regression. Are you gonna do it per card for everytime the card was in your opener when you won?
No. I would do it considering all other cards drawn in the entire game. For example, the equation would look like this:
Yi = C + Xbi + Xbii + Xbiii + Xbiv
Where
Yi = did you win or not
C = constant
bi = sideboard game?
bii = deck archtype?
biii = # of A cards drawn
biv = # of B cards drawn
etc.
I would also include test variables like the number of total cards drawn in that game.
I disagree. Playing a 0/4 wall with narrow counter backup isn't were you want to be. Especially with the addition of Ancestral Vision to the deck in a metagame that is being really aggressive.
Sorry, my verbiage was a little strong. I'm not suggesting Thing is 'what every grixis deck needs'. I was just refuting that Thing and Tasigur don't fit in a grixis shell, or aren't good enough.
As others have suggested, you can't build around Thing and it can't be your only win condition, but running 2 or 3 of them and sticking one has gone a long way in several aggro matchups.
I'm running 3 currently alongside kalitas, tasigur, Pia and Kiran, and a couple GoblinDD and it has been working great. The times I've lost with it on the board I was most likely losing either way.
I don't think it holds aggro well at all, I think it does ok at keeping one creature in check, but it still does nothing against burn/decks with range, or decks that go wide with multiple beaters. Not only that but you also have to analyze what you're cutting to afford playing TiTi. Saying that it performs well against aggro on turn 2 is misleading/disingenuous if you're playing itinstead of Terminate/Bolt/Counter-Magic which are better early game than an un-transformed TiTi.
The fact that it usually resolves around the same time as AV is why I've argued before that the card doesn't pair well with it. The last thing you want against aggro decks(Which are a large part of the metagame Atm) is to play a turn 1 AV into a turn 2 TiTi. You spend your first 2 turns preparing for a lategame that may as well never happen.
The card is definitely super solid against Midrange/Atrittion decks, and it certainly plays well with AV in those situations, but right now it is more likely that you'll play against an agressive archetype than against Jund/Junk or another B/x variant. And with that in mind you also have to consider that those matchups are already favorable or a 50/50. Which makes me wonder, do we really need more cards to beat slow archetypes when those matches are already favorable and we are unfavored against the majority of the field?
Slightly off-topic, but... In combination with thinking about how viable a 5-CMC creature like Goblin Dark-Dwellers is for this deck, since it seems like it really relies on one-for-one removal and counters to get past the first few turns, I also recently discovered the Legacy Grixis Pyromancer deck. It has a pretty interesting gameplan, and it seems like the low-CMC draw/counter/discard build + Young Pyromancer should work pretty well, at least in the Legacy environment. Has anyone experimented with a Young Pyromancer-focused build of Modern Grixis Control? Obviously not quite so cantrip-heavy as the legacy version, but also more control-focused than the Grixis Delver builds. Or is this just not possible without access to Legacy cards like Brainstorm, Ponder, Force of Will, Cabal Therapy, etc.?
I disagree. Playing a 0/4 wall with narrow counter backup isn't were you want to be. Especially with the addition of Ancestral Vision to the deck in a metagame that is being really aggressive.
Wouldn't an aggressive metagame favor an 0/4 wall? There isn't many creatures that get past Thing early game. (typically not til turn 4 can a creature attack through the card.)
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
The inclusion of TiTi is not to improve matchups against midrange/attrition decks, in fact I think TiTi is not great against those decks because it just gives them a target for Abrupt Decay in a deck that's otherwise almost completely immune to the card.
The burn matchup is the biggest reason to play TiTi. It gives you a way to create a fast clock we otherwise sorely lack (unless you're playing Thought Scour and Delve creatures, but that package requires more deck slots than TiTi). It can come down turn 2, block a Guide or Swiftspear for a couple of turns, and then turn into a 2-3 turn clock. Or if they want to attack into it and bolt it, fine, it just saved us 5-6 damage. Better than any other 2 mana spell could do.
I've also found that TiTi is good against decks like Scapeshift and Tron that will beat us if the game goes on too long. Those decks have limited ways of interacting with it, so it can make a decent clock against them (which again, is sorely missed since we dropped the Delve package).
A couple of days ago I won an 8-man on MTGO, two of the matches were against Tron and Burn. Wouldn't have won either without TiTi, but it helped me win both matches.
Without either playing TiTi or the Delve package, we're left with a deck that's good at killing creatures but that will struggle vs. any deck that doesn't depend on creatures to win. IMO, we need to adopt one of those. The Delve package may be better, but it requires 8-9 slots as opposed to TiTi requiring 3-4.
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Current Modern decks BGW Junk / URB Grixis Shadow / RGB Lantern Control / WUBCBant Eldrazi
Current Legacy decks BUG Shardless BUG / UWR Predict Miracles / RUG Canadian Thresh / WRBG 4c Loam UB Reanimator
The inclusion of TiTi is not to improve matchups against midrange/attrition decks, in fact I think TiTi is not great against those decks because it just gives them a target for Abrupt Decay in a deck that's otherwise almost completely immune to the card.
The burn matchup is the biggest reason to play TiTi. It gives you a way to create a fast clock we otherwise sorely lack (unless you're playing Thought Scour and Delve creatures, but that package requires more deck slots than TiTi). It can come down turn 2, block a Guide or Swiftspear for a couple of turns, and then turn into a 2-3 turn clock. Or if they want to attack into it and bolt it, fine, it just saved us 5-6 damage. Better than any other 2 mana spell could do.
I've also found that TiTi is good against decks like Scapeshift and Tron that will beat us if the game goes on too long. Those decks have limited ways of interacting with it, so it can make a decent clock against them (which again, is sorely missed since we dropped the Delve package).
A couple of days ago I won an 8-man on MTGO, two of the matches were against Tron and Burn. Wouldn't have won either without TiTi, but it helped me win both matches.
Without either playing TiTi or the Delve package, we're left with a deck that's good at killing creatures but that will struggle vs. any deck that doesn't depend on creatures to win. IMO, we need to adopt one of those. The Delve package may be better, but it requires 8-9 slots as opposed to TiTi requiring 3-4.
Great explanation. If burn is worst matchup titi seems to be the way to go. Can you share your updated decklist?
I've been following this thread for a couple of days just to see what was being said, what kind of lists people were coming up with, etc. after the new set and the unbannings. Personally I'd have to agree with FZA and a couple others that TiTi is something that shouldn't be overlooked and could have quite the impact in a few key match-ups for us.
While it's been hotly debated whether or not TiTi might do work for us in Burn match-ups, I think FZA made a few good points that at the very least it blocks for a turn and grabs a burn spell on the way out. This interaction at the very least gives us another turn to stabilize and potentially drop a Kalitas or even a Tasigur. A friend of mine that I play with often who runs Affinity gets pretty salty after a pre-board TiTi flip. Again, it can be said that the flip allows us another turn, or even two, to stabilize and clinch the win while setting up a reliable clock. Specifically in the Affinity match-up gives us the chance to counter anything we really don't want to see on the board again.
Sure, it's not something that we want to run 4-of, but the synergy with Snaps or even Clique should not be overlooked.
However, I am curious FZA, why you say that TiTi and a Delve package would need to be run separately? I understand that a full Delve package with some Things thrown in would not work well, but I've seen Tasigur be able to re-setup my yard after having him out pre-flip and gain some value in that respect. I was also wondering if you'd be so kind as to share the list you were running on MTGO where you found success with TiTi.
Without either playing TiTi or the Delve package, we're left with a deck that's good at killing creatures but that will struggle vs. any deck that doesn't depend on creatures to win. IMO, we need to adopt one of those. The Delve package may be better, but it requires 8-9 slots as opposed to TiTi requiring 3-4.
I don't think that's the case.
No matter what our win-con is we will always be running 4 Terminates (or 3 Terminate 1 other kill spell) 4 Bolts and 3 K-Commands. I don't think that's a removal package we should stray away from.
Additionally 8-10 card draw spells will also always be there, depending on the build.
Some builds will go towards counters others towards discard.
It is true that these win-cons can be useful in some cases but not because of your presented reasoning.
Additionally, the Delve package has proved to be quite weak because it can get easily exploited if our opponent runs remand or 2 kill spells because we eventually run out of graveyard. There is a reason people have moved away from Chapin lists and it is that is has been a fragile deck. Yes sometimes you get a T2/3 5/5 beater and end the game right there but that's an exception not the rule.
Concerning TiTi, 3-4 slots is not exactly correct since if you are running the Thing you are more or less forced into running Thought Scours (same as Delve) because you want the 1-mana instant speed often to threat the flip. That means some deck building constrains to maximize the Thing's efficiency.
You can have a solid deck without Delve package or TiTi, simply with GDD, PnK Nalaar, Kalitas and Creeping Tar Pit as your win cons. K-Command is much stronger with these cards than with TiTi or with delve creatures and K-Command is a card we should be looking to exploit heavily.
The new toy we got was, imho, Ancestral Vision and not TiTi. AV is what will push this deck over the top and not Thing. Yes you can always play around with TiTi, you can chose to run 2 copies and not force a build around it, but AV gave the deck the boost it needed. Goblin Dark Dwellers are great with AV and they don't cause any deckbuilding constrains. At the same time they can serve as win cons because of the body and the semi-evasion.
Again, I am not saying that TiTi, or Delve package are bad (although I personally think the latter is bad), I am saying that these are not the things that will push the deck into Tier 1 status but a solid build which exploits all the advantages grixis colors have to offer. These are: 1) great removals 2) huge 2-1 or even 3-1 potential 3) great graveyard synergy for even more card advantage.
I disagree. Playing a 0/4 wall with narrow counter backup isn't were you want to be. Especially with the addition of Ancestral Vision to the deck in a metagame that is being really aggressive.
Wouldn't an aggressive metagame favor an 0/4 wall? There isn't many creatures that get past Thing early game. (typically not til turn 4 can a creature attack through the card.)
I mean it's better than not playing anything and just passing the turn to let them hit you, but it's definitely worse than Bolt,Terminate, and countermagic.
The inclusion of TiTi is not to improve matchups against midrange/attrition decks, in fact I think TiTi is not great against those decks because it just gives them a target for Abrupt Decay in a deck that's otherwise almost completely immune to the card.
The burn matchup is the biggest reason to play TiTi. It gives you a way to create a fast clock we otherwise sorely lack (unless you're playing Thought Scour and Delve creatures, but that package requires more deck slots than TiTi). It can come down turn 2, block a Guide or Swiftspear for a couple of turns, and then turn into a 2-3 turn clock. Or if they want to attack into it and bolt it, fine, it just saved us 5-6 damage. Better than any other 2 mana spell could do.
I've also found that TiTi is good against decks like Scapeshift and Tron that will beat us if the game goes on too long. Those decks have limited ways of interacting with it, so it can make a decent clock against them (which again, is sorely missed since we dropped the Delve package).
A couple of days ago I won an 8-man on MTGO, two of the matches were against Tron and Burn. Wouldn't have won either without TiTi, but it helped me win both matches.
Without either playing TiTi or the Delve package, we're left with a deck that's good at killing creatures but that will struggle vs. any deck that doesn't depend on creatures to win. IMO, we need to adopt one of those. The Delve package may be better, but it requires 8-9 slots as opposed to TiTi requiring 3-4.
Also worth talking about that a creature base of 4 snap, 3 thing, 2 kalitas, 1-2 dank dwellers means that you can run anger of the gods or pyroclasm main deck.
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On mtgsalvation people don't want to discuss ideas, so I give people something else to discuss: my controversial opinions.
The inclusion of TiTi is not to improve matchups against midrange/attrition decks, in fact I think TiTi is not great against those decks because it just gives them a target for Abrupt Decay in a deck that's otherwise almost completely immune to the card.
The burn matchup is the biggest reason to play TiTi. It gives you a way to create a fast clock we otherwise sorely lack (unless you're playing Thought Scour and Delve creatures, but that package requires more deck slots than TiTi). It can come down turn 2, block a Guide or Swiftspear for a couple of turns, and then turn into a 2-3 turn clock. Or if they want to attack into it and bolt it, fine, it just saved us 5-6 damage. Better than any other 2 mana spell could do.
I've also found that TiTi is good against decks like Scapeshift and Tron that will beat us if the game goes on too long. Those decks have limited ways of interacting with it, so it can make a decent clock against them (which again, is sorely missed since we dropped the Delve package).
A couple of days ago I won an 8-man on MTGO, two of the matches were against Tron and Burn. Wouldn't have won either without TiTi, but it helped me win both matches.
Without either playing TiTi or the Delve package, we're left with a deck that's good at killing creatures but that will struggle vs. any deck that doesn't depend on creatures to win. IMO, we need to adopt one of those. The Delve package may be better, but it requires 8-9 slots as opposed to TiTi requiring 3-4.
But it also turns on both Searing Blaze and Path to Exile against Burn/Zoo. Not only that, but half of the creatures in burn don't care about it because they can go over it. It does nothing against lavamancer, and it doesn't answer a resolved Eidolon, I'd much rather take the 2 dmg from bolting it than letting it shock me until TiTi transforms. Then here's also the times when they just play spikes and bolts so you were already playing with 6 cards. With the addition of AV that can turn into 5.
I agree with the sentiment that Titi is a great clock, but IMO the card is misleading people into thinking that they're improving their aggro matchup because they're playing a turn 2 wall when in reality they're making it worse by playing a high risk high reward card that doesn't create enough of a blockade to stop your opponent from killing you. If anything the card is a better finisher than Tasigur/Angler, but it still feels worse than Pia and Kiran or even Kalitas in terms of using your finisher to stabilize your board. Even more so when you take into account how little the card does against affiniry and infect. If you play this on turn 2 you give them a free pass to smack you for 1/3 of your life total.
What do we think a delve list would look like now? The meta and unbannings have shifted a lot since that era of Grixis so I feel like it will be somewhat different from before. Thoughts?
The inclusion of TiTi is not to improve matchups against midrange/attrition decks, in fact I think TiTi is not great against those decks because it just gives them a target for Abrupt Decay in a deck that's otherwise almost completely immune to the card.
The burn matchup is the biggest reason to play TiTi. It gives you a way to create a fast clock we otherwise sorely lack (unless you're playing Thought Scour and Delve creatures, but that package requires more deck slots than TiTi). It can come down turn 2, block a Guide or Swiftspear for a couple of turns, and then turn into a 2-3 turn clock. Or if they want to attack into it and bolt it, fine, it just saved us 5-6 damage. Better than any other 2 mana spell could do.
I've also found that TiTi is good against decks like Scapeshift and Tron that will beat us if the game goes on too long. Those decks have limited ways of interacting with it, so it can make a decent clock against them (which again, is sorely missed since we dropped the Delve package).
A couple of days ago I won an 8-man on MTGO, two of the matches were against Tron and Burn. Wouldn't have won either without TiTi, but it helped me win both matches.
Without either playing TiTi or the Delve package, we're left with a deck that's good at killing creatures but that will struggle vs. any deck that doesn't depend on creatures to win. IMO, we need to adopt one of those. The Delve package may be better, but it requires 8-9 slots as opposed to TiTi requiring 3-4.
But it also turns on both Searing Blaze and Path to Exile against Burn/Zoo. Not only that, but half of the creatures in burn don't care about it because they can go over it. It does nothing against lavamancer, and it doesn't answer a resolved Eidolon, I'd much rather take the 2 dmg from bolting it than letting it shock me until TiTi transforms. Then here's also the times when they just play spikes and bolts so you were already playing with 6 cards. With the addition of AV that can turn into 5.
I agree with the sentiment that Titi is a great clock, but IMO the card is misleading people into thinking that they're improving their aggro matchup because they're playing a turn 2 wall when in reality they're making it worse by playing a high risk high reward card that doesn't create enough of a blockade to stop your opponent from killing you. If anything the card is a better finisher than Tasigur/Angler, but it still feels worse than Pia and Kiran or even Kalitas in terms of using your finisher to stabilize your board. Even more so when you take into account how little the card does against affiniry and infect. If you play this on turn 2 you give them a free pass to smack you for 1/3 of your life total.
Hmmm these points change my thinking. With this creature base do we play more discard abd removal and go light on counters?
Also how about Lilliana? It allows us to pitch late game AV.
Is it safe to say that Jace should not be considered?
I like the discussion here. Sounds like TITI is getting some love. I don't ever see myself not playing that card in this deck. It has been that good for me. Don't discount it.
Also, I personally like this creature setup if you go the TITI route:
4 Snaps
2 Mom and Pop
2-3 Thing
1-2 Dark Dwellers
0-1 Kalitas
If you don't play Kalitas main. He needs at least a slot in board. The life gain matters so much to me I keep one main myself.
Before I lose my train of thought, I'd like to chime in.
I find AV to be absolutely amazing. I almost feel like it was just for us lol. The problem the deck had (imo) is not finishing the game quick enough, or just not having enough gas to kill late game. For me at least, I would control the early and mid game, but then it would slowly slip away because even with 2 for 1s, I didn't always have a way to turn the corner before it was too late. Its good at grinding games out unless they land a goyf or any decent clock after that point.
AV gives us some inevitability.
(Excluding aggro match ups, since they run out of gas sooner and tend to have less answers for my stuff.)
Somebody above made an interesting point above about TitI being actually ideal in 2 of our bad match ups (tron and burn). I like the idea of blocking an attack and wasting their burn spell. That's exactly what we want in that match, buy time and wither their resources. And with tron, it can be the legit clock we need to close that game out before it's out of reach.
One thing I noticed that I didn't like about Thing is that, while dangerous, it's essentially a threat that they have extra time to answer, because obviously it doesn't do anything but sit there at first. The other thing is I find myself playing oddly and somewhat sub optimally when it's a more midrange game and there's not a clear cut perfect time to make him flip.
Preaching to the choir here but he's going to underperform or overperform in different matches. I don't see him being just "decent" in any game. He either resolves and wreaks havoc or just doesn't work.
Overall I think it's worth dabbling with. Maybe a couple sideboard slots, or side something else to replace it in those midrange-y matches if it's main. But if I had to choose yes use it or don't, I'd actually say no because it requires somewhat of a build around, and more importantly, it's not reliable.
One other thing.
I haven't tested Liliana a whole lot, but I like her as a 1 or 2 of. We don't have a lot of threats to top deck like jund does so I don't particularly care to use that game plan. However she is such a powerful card by herself it couldn't hurt to use her.
URBURB
Over the next four days I'm going to set up a gauntlet in Xmage and play against myself using 7 other archtypes (Burn, Scapeshift, Living End, Abzan Company, Jund, Infect, and Affinity).
VS each deck I'm going to play 100 games (25 pre-board, 75 post board). I am then going to document what cards I drew during each game, and whether or not I won that game.
After tabulating this information... I will run a simple logistic regression using excel to get an idea of how certain cards impact win percentages in specific matchups.
I will then use this information to construct my final 75 for states this weekend.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
URBURB
No. I would do it considering all other cards drawn in the entire game. For example, the equation would look like this:
Yi = C + Xbi + Xbii + Xbiii + Xbiv
Where
Yi = did you win or not
C = constant
bi = sideboard game?
bii = deck archtype?
biii = # of A cards drawn
biv = # of B cards drawn
etc.
I would also include test variables like the number of total cards drawn in that game.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
Sorry, my verbiage was a little strong. I'm not suggesting Thing is 'what every grixis deck needs'. I was just refuting that Thing and Tasigur don't fit in a grixis shell, or aren't good enough.
As others have suggested, you can't build around Thing and it can't be your only win condition, but running 2 or 3 of them and sticking one has gone a long way in several aggro matchups.
I'm running 3 currently alongside kalitas, tasigur, Pia and Kiran, and a couple GoblinDD and it has been working great. The times I've lost with it on the board I was most likely losing either way.
The fact that it usually resolves around the same time as AV is why I've argued before that the card doesn't pair well with it. The last thing you want against aggro decks(Which are a large part of the metagame Atm) is to play a turn 1 AV into a turn 2 TiTi. You spend your first 2 turns preparing for a lategame that may as well never happen.
The card is definitely super solid against Midrange/Atrittion decks, and it certainly plays well with AV in those situations, but right now it is more likely that you'll play against an agressive archetype than against Jund/Junk or another B/x variant. And with that in mind you also have to consider that those matchups are already favorable or a 50/50. Which makes me wonder, do we really need more cards to beat slow archetypes when those matches are already favorable and we are unfavored against the majority of the field?
URBURB
shouldn't it be maindeck countersqualls?
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
Wouldn't an aggressive metagame favor an 0/4 wall? There isn't many creatures that get past Thing early game. (typically not til turn 4 can a creature attack through the card.)
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
The burn matchup is the biggest reason to play TiTi. It gives you a way to create a fast clock we otherwise sorely lack (unless you're playing Thought Scour and Delve creatures, but that package requires more deck slots than TiTi). It can come down turn 2, block a Guide or Swiftspear for a couple of turns, and then turn into a 2-3 turn clock. Or if they want to attack into it and bolt it, fine, it just saved us 5-6 damage. Better than any other 2 mana spell could do.
I've also found that TiTi is good against decks like Scapeshift and Tron that will beat us if the game goes on too long. Those decks have limited ways of interacting with it, so it can make a decent clock against them (which again, is sorely missed since we dropped the Delve package).
A couple of days ago I won an 8-man on MTGO, two of the matches were against Tron and Burn. Wouldn't have won either without TiTi, but it helped me win both matches.
Without either playing TiTi or the Delve package, we're left with a deck that's good at killing creatures but that will struggle vs. any deck that doesn't depend on creatures to win. IMO, we need to adopt one of those. The Delve package may be better, but it requires 8-9 slots as opposed to TiTi requiring 3-4.
BGW Junk / URB Grixis Shadow / RGB Lantern Control / WUBCBant Eldrazi
Current Legacy decks
BUG Shardless BUG / UWR Predict Miracles / RUG Canadian Thresh / WRBG 4c Loam
UB Reanimator
Great explanation. If burn is worst matchup titi seems to be the way to go. Can you share your updated decklist?
While it's been hotly debated whether or not TiTi might do work for us in Burn match-ups, I think FZA made a few good points that at the very least it blocks for a turn and grabs a burn spell on the way out. This interaction at the very least gives us another turn to stabilize and potentially drop a Kalitas or even a Tasigur. A friend of mine that I play with often who runs Affinity gets pretty salty after a pre-board TiTi flip. Again, it can be said that the flip allows us another turn, or even two, to stabilize and clinch the win while setting up a reliable clock. Specifically in the Affinity match-up gives us the chance to counter anything we really don't want to see on the board again.
Sure, it's not something that we want to run 4-of, but the synergy with Snaps or even Clique should not be overlooked.
However, I am curious FZA, why you say that TiTi and a Delve package would need to be run separately? I understand that a full Delve package with some Things thrown in would not work well, but I've seen Tasigur be able to re-setup my yard after having him out pre-flip and gain some value in that respect. I was also wondering if you'd be so kind as to share the list you were running on MTGO where you found success with TiTi.
No matter what our win-con is we will always be running 4 Terminates (or 3 Terminate 1 other kill spell) 4 Bolts and 3 K-Commands. I don't think that's a removal package we should stray away from.
Additionally 8-10 card draw spells will also always be there, depending on the build.
Some builds will go towards counters others towards discard.
It is true that these win-cons can be useful in some cases but not because of your presented reasoning.
Additionally, the Delve package has proved to be quite weak because it can get easily exploited if our opponent runs remand or 2 kill spells because we eventually run out of graveyard. There is a reason people have moved away from Chapin lists and it is that is has been a fragile deck. Yes sometimes you get a T2/3 5/5 beater and end the game right there but that's an exception not the rule.
Concerning TiTi, 3-4 slots is not exactly correct since if you are running the Thing you are more or less forced into running Thought Scours (same as Delve) because you want the 1-mana instant speed often to threat the flip. That means some deck building constrains to maximize the Thing's efficiency.
You can have a solid deck without Delve package or TiTi, simply with GDD, PnK Nalaar, Kalitas and Creeping Tar Pit as your win cons. K-Command is much stronger with these cards than with TiTi or with delve creatures and K-Command is a card we should be looking to exploit heavily.
The new toy we got was, imho, Ancestral Vision and not TiTi. AV is what will push this deck over the top and not Thing. Yes you can always play around with TiTi, you can chose to run 2 copies and not force a build around it, but AV gave the deck the boost it needed. Goblin Dark Dwellers are great with AV and they don't cause any deckbuilding constrains. At the same time they can serve as win cons because of the body and the semi-evasion.
Again, I am not saying that TiTi, or Delve package are bad (although I personally think the latter is bad), I am saying that these are not the things that will push the deck into Tier 1 status but a solid build which exploits all the advantages grixis colors have to offer. These are: 1) great removals 2) huge 2-1 or even 3-1 potential 3) great graveyard synergy for even more card advantage.
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
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I mean it's better than not playing anything and just passing the turn to let them hit you, but it's definitely worse than Bolt,Terminate, and countermagic.
URBURB
Also worth talking about that a creature base of 4 snap, 3 thing, 2 kalitas, 1-2 dank dwellers means that you can run anger of the gods or pyroclasm main deck.
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
But it also turns on both Searing Blaze and Path to Exile against Burn/Zoo. Not only that, but half of the creatures in burn don't care about it because they can go over it. It does nothing against lavamancer, and it doesn't answer a resolved Eidolon, I'd much rather take the 2 dmg from bolting it than letting it shock me until TiTi transforms. Then here's also the times when they just play spikes and bolts so you were already playing with 6 cards. With the addition of AV that can turn into 5.
I agree with the sentiment that Titi is a great clock, but IMO the card is misleading people into thinking that they're improving their aggro matchup because they're playing a turn 2 wall when in reality they're making it worse by playing a high risk high reward card that doesn't create enough of a blockade to stop your opponent from killing you. If anything the card is a better finisher than Tasigur/Angler, but it still feels worse than Pia and Kiran or even Kalitas in terms of using your finisher to stabilize your board. Even more so when you take into account how little the card does against affiniry and infect. If you play this on turn 2 you give them a free pass to smack you for 1/3 of your life total.
URBURB
Thanks guys!
Hmmm these points change my thinking. With this creature base do we play more discard abd removal and go light on counters?
Also how about Lilliana? It allows us to pitch late game AV.
Is it safe to say that Jace should not be considered?
Also, I personally like this creature setup if you go the TITI route:
4 Snaps
2 Mom and Pop
2-3 Thing
1-2 Dark Dwellers
0-1 Kalitas
If you don't play Kalitas main. He needs at least a slot in board. The life gain matters so much to me I keep one main myself.
I find AV to be absolutely amazing. I almost feel like it was just for us lol. The problem the deck had (imo) is not finishing the game quick enough, or just not having enough gas to kill late game. For me at least, I would control the early and mid game, but then it would slowly slip away because even with 2 for 1s, I didn't always have a way to turn the corner before it was too late. Its good at grinding games out unless they land a goyf or any decent clock after that point.
AV gives us some inevitability.
(Excluding aggro match ups, since they run out of gas sooner and tend to have less answers for my stuff.)
Somebody above made an interesting point above about TitI being actually ideal in 2 of our bad match ups (tron and burn). I like the idea of blocking an attack and wasting their burn spell. That's exactly what we want in that match, buy time and wither their resources. And with tron, it can be the legit clock we need to close that game out before it's out of reach.
One thing I noticed that I didn't like about Thing is that, while dangerous, it's essentially a threat that they have extra time to answer, because obviously it doesn't do anything but sit there at first. The other thing is I find myself playing oddly and somewhat sub optimally when it's a more midrange game and there's not a clear cut perfect time to make him flip.
Preaching to the choir here but he's going to underperform or overperform in different matches. I don't see him being just "decent" in any game. He either resolves and wreaks havoc or just doesn't work.
Overall I think it's worth dabbling with. Maybe a couple sideboard slots, or side something else to replace it in those midrange-y matches if it's main. But if I had to choose yes use it or don't, I'd actually say no because it requires somewhat of a build around, and more importantly, it's not reliable.
One other thing.
I haven't tested Liliana a whole lot, but I like her as a 1 or 2 of. We don't have a lot of threats to top deck like jund does so I don't particularly care to use that game plan. However she is such a powerful card by herself it couldn't hurt to use her.