variance analysis is a mathematical way to rule OUT luck
Well that's what I practically said:
You can rule out 'luck' (as much as possible) in your statistical analyses by compensating with statistical power
You seem to be a good guy and I don't want to be rude
Well thanks, I'd like to keep it that way
Edit: I just played a match against UR counterburn. My cryptics and pushes/paths got negated or dispelled which was *****ty. I tried to SB in some more BAs (3 in total) and timely (1) but it still was hard to play. Luckily, I'm playing Shambling Vents as budget alternative for Celestials and they actually saved me a couple of times.
Platon, have you read the last pages? To make it simple, we were arguing whether theory and experience was more valuable than some random number of decks that pulled results. My argument was that experience from long time players of this deck is worth gold and surpass results we had from 30ish decks since it is statistically insignificant. So what you say is that I am right (theory and experience is better) but that I do not have the right to prove it with numbers...
I don't know if it is the best time to ask the following question as the debate about the rightfulness of 5-0 lists is still going on, but as I am quite a rookie with the deck, I really want to understand the reasoning that leads to card selection when it comes to sideboard.
So here is the question: if one is to bring Gideon Jura and/or Ligering Souls in his sideboard, what match up are they designed for ?
I get that Lingering Souls is great against Control because dealing with recursive multiple threats can be tricky. But are the 6-7% of the control decks present in the metagame worth the slot? I read earlier that it can be used against Dredge. But are there more situation where the card shines ?
As for Gideon, I play it as a beater when the board is empty (against most Combo decks and some Control ones) and against Aggro deck that are not going too wide, as he can tempo and deal with threats. So, first of all, did I get it right ?
I feel like Gideon comes too late against Combo. Sure, it is a 3 turn clock, but it requires tapping out or waiting 7-9 turns to cast it... which can be far too long against combo, even with a lot of counterspells in hand if we did not get the discard. So if I had to play a beater, I would go for Clique, not Gideon. As for Control, I just stopped using it, because it just eats all the Paths, Terminates, Condemn and Blessed Alliance that are sitting in my opponent's hand. And constantly emptying their hand is not a realistic plan. And in the Aggro match up, I just find Elspeth way better. Except against Burn, bringing Gideon in feels like overkill. I play UW Control a lot, and Gideon feels great in tap-out Control, but not so much here... hence my surprise when I see almost every top8 list playing him.
Sorry for posting again sideboard questions, but I kind of struggle with Esper Control's one much more than I ever did with UW, Jeskai or Grixis.
Answering questions and sharing info is kinda the point of a forum so you shouldn't feel bad, especially if you need help (also there discussion has gotten way out of hand. They should agree to disagree at this point, as they are no longer providing value to the thread and only arguing among themselves now, but of course that's just my opinion).
I have found that lingering souls is good against control as well as grindy match ups or times when having pressure is a benefit. As for Gideon, I have never personally found him useful and don't run him myself. However I believe he would be best against midrange or slower aggro strategies. You don't necessarily need as many counters in those games and he is just removal and fog on a stick, then a win con. They don't flood the board so you can control how much damage he takes a turn with your own removal, then you use your counters to protect him when you go to be the aggressor. Of course he also has the huge benefit of being a 6/6 on the board after a verdict.
I just find that Elspeth suns champion is almost always better so I don't like devoting a slot to him.
I think you should never board in lingering souls against control. Actually you should be able to win vs control even if you sideboard nothing because our game plan is more solid. In a draw go match up, you simply crush anything. I still do SB to make it an easy 2-0. I bring in dispell 2x and sometimes big elspeth. Also if I feel like my opponent is going to board out all his removal, I side in BSA for a quick laugh.
lightmine field is pretty stupid against lingering souls (a weak spot) or dumb stuff like affinity and elves or inkmoth decks in general, or tokens. depends on your meta
everything else is pretty stock, 27 lands is because I hated playing serum visions everytime I drew it. The only thing I ever wanted to dig for was more land, so we upped that to 27 like a proper-draw goer, and then compensated with a couple irrigated farmland
you could also shove in an oona's grace in place of something, but meh.
feels great against the field, no big bombs for gb/x, but they've never felt necessary. We essentially lose to lili, and engineered explosives effectively solves that. goyfs and bobs aren't an issue for so much removal. so we lose to lili or souls usually *shrug*
It helps a lot to think about boarding not as silver bullets, but as "how do I actually usually LOSE this match" and just try to band aid that. We don't need to be playing 4 color crumble to dust bullet decks anymore
lightmine field is pretty stupid against lingering souls (a weak spot) or dumb stuff like affinity and elves or inkmoth decks in general, or tokens. depends on your meta
everything else is pretty stock, 27 lands is because I hated playing serum visions everytime I drew it. The only thing I ever wanted to dig for was more land, so we upped that to 27 like a proper-draw goer, and then compensated with a couple irrigated farmland
you could also shove in an oona's grace in place of something, but meh.
feels great against the field, no big bombs for gb/x, but they've never felt necessary. We essentially lose to lili, and engineered explosives effectively solves that. goyfs and bobs aren't an issue for so much removal. so we lose to lili or souls usually *shrug*
It helps a lot to think about boarding not as silver bullets, but as "how do I actually usually LOSE this match" and just try to band aid that. We don't need to be playing 4 color crumble to dust bullet decks anymore
Have fun guys!
No arguments from me but the sideboard is interesting, 3 EE, 3 discard and no graveyard hate. Do you just lean on removal and Halos against dredge? I ask because I hate loosing to dredge more then any other deck.
How do we play game against TitanShift? Shuffled this up for the week and I've jammed about 10 games every day since Monday, titanShift and Eldrazi Tron are the two decks I get floored by
My plan on shift is just counter wincons, but once they reach critical mass of mountains it's eating 3, 6 or even 9 damage per mountain.
Who's the expert on beating big mana?
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2 hands to clap, 1(or more) hands to hold said applauding hands...
This isn't adding up.
Can anyone lend a hand?
Do you really think lightmine field is better than something like night of souls betrayal (or even jace, architect of thought?) It feels too low-impact at 4 cmc, but I've never really played it in modern.
Thoughts on extractions in your board to compliment the discard?
A lot of us have moved over to it, to good success.
I also think 3 ee + the lightmine field is a bit overkill against tokens, but if you expect them a lot, it might be reasonable.
I think celestial purge/anguished unmaking are pretty strong right now, as well, if you want more answers to lili (in addition to other things).
Do you feel the lack of ghost quarters? With 27 lands I feel like you could find some room.
Against valakut decks, runed halo, leylines, and extractions (on valakut, ideally).
Against eldrazi tron, counterspells, discard, and wraths tend to do good work.
I would highly recommend saving ghost quarters for problem lands like cavern of souls, or seagate wreckage, as they don't tend to play multiples of them, but they can be very problematic. They play so much ramp that trying to turn them off tron/temples is not really all that strong.
Thoughts on swapping [[Thoughseize]] for [[Collective Brutality]]? It seems like Hoogland was pushing for it a while ago. Maybe I missed where it was discussed here, but it seems like an interesting switch.
Not as good vs Eldrazi or Tron, but adds cards vs burn and the like, and still fine vs other control.
Edit: After reading through some older posts it seems not grabbing walkers and the like makes Brutality not really worth it.
Small question: when you have a counter in hand against titanbreach, and they breach on your end step, do you counter it knowing that they will play the titan next turn anyway (let's assume you are tapped out or out of conuterspells)?
I have a question about the control mirror. What is our deck (namely the lists with STW/WSZ as their lone win condition) supposed to do during the active phase? While Grixis is slamming down Tasigur and UW planeswalkers, do we just play a massive WSZ? Doesn't that leave us super vulnerable against wrath effects? Or do we dump all of our Esper Charms at them?
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UWGBant EldraziUWG Decided I don't like Todd Stevens decks.
The wya I approach a UW control matchup, is focus on land drops, I usually hold charms till I see an opening you really need ot hit a land drop and you have a verdict or a pte that can be pitched to handsize as needed.
If you have an opening to drop a wsz for a couple tokens I take it, it goes back in and a verdict means they just used 4 mana on their turn which usually is the green light to pepper their hand with charms or resolve a mini or mid size rev. We never care about win cons dying, the builds with secure have a uphill battle by virtue of eventually decking, where we can at the very least wsz for 1 or even 0 to get it back in the deck.
I like engineered explosives as a general catch all, not just for tokens. There's maybe one tokens player in my meta, but EE is great against everything from merfolk to Jund, to the DS decks, and amazing against affinity too. Plus lantern, bridge decks. Just a catch all really.
So far it's felt REALLY great, and you can always cast Zenith for x= a lot, then untap, cryptic tap their team / bounce lightmine for the win when it's time.
Thanks, I'll try doing it like that It felt a bit miserable against Grixis since AV and Tasigur are really mana efficient, while Rev and WSZ require you to go all in.
Bloodrabbit, you are wrong, so wrong. You have answers for everyone and everything, but the only thing you do here is kill the deck momentum for newer players. You arrived here 2 months ago, no one knows from where, and you even contradict the primer and alot of thing that has been worked on years ago. You speak like you hold the truth and that may impress newer comers, but the reality is that you are wrong, wrong and wrong. So keep doing your thing, you'll see less and less competent players here because most of them don't like to argue. Your behavior is what they call passive-agressive and its really getting on nerves. You hold no truth, and newer players will lose precious time following your advices... go guys, play lingering souls!
Bloodrabbit, you are wrong, so wrong. You have answers for everyone and everything, but the only thing you do here is kill the deck momentum for newer players. You arrived here 2 months ago, no one knows from where, and you even contradict the primer and alot of thing that has been worked on years ago. You speak like you hold the truth and that may impress newer comers, but the reality is that you are wrong, wrong and wrong. So keep doing your thing, you'll see less and less competent players here because most of them don't like to argue. Your behavior is what they call passive-agressive and its really getting on nerves. You hold no truth, and newer players will lose precious time following your advices... go guys, play lingering souls!
That's a really serious accusation, Pastor. Just pointing out that he might have the same feeling about you. You guys have the most arguments out of anyone in this thread, so he is probably gonna get on your nerves.
I saw that someone asked how to fight against Dredge. I don't know if I am doing it right, but without Surgical, I try to stall the game by chumpblocking with Timely Reinforcements' tokens and Pathing some creatures. Resolving a Halo is also very powerfull. Wrath are not game-breakers but they buy you the time you need to cast Elspeth or activate Colonnades. Elspeth is very handy as she allows to chump and to represent lethal if they fail to recover quickly enough from a Verdict. Reseting their board multiple times can be painful as they cannot Dredge during the whole game without risking to deck themselves. Then they go on the Conflagrate plan or the "hardcasting the Dredgers" plan. With Surgical, things are much simpler. You try to Wrath and follow with a Surgical (with a Snap in hand, it's even better !).
Ya, I don't run halos or extraction but I will have to pick some up. I think they really shore up some bad match ups.
Small question: when you have a counter in hand against titanbreach, and they breach on your end step, do you counter it knowing that they will play the titan next turn anyway (let's assume you are tapped out or out of conuterspells)?
Anyone has input on this ? I think I should counter and not be scared to tap out since they usually play either breach or scapeshift, right ?
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Well that's what I practically said:
Well thanks, I'd like to keep it that way
Edit: I just played a match against UR counterburn. My cryptics and pushes/paths got negated or dispelled which was *****ty. I tried to SB in some more BAs (3 in total) and timely (1) but it still was hard to play. Luckily, I'm playing Shambling Vents as budget alternative for Celestials and they actually saved me a couple of times.
Answering questions and sharing info is kinda the point of a forum so you shouldn't feel bad, especially if you need help (also there discussion has gotten way out of hand. They should agree to disagree at this point, as they are no longer providing value to the thread and only arguing among themselves now, but of course that's just my opinion).
I have found that lingering souls is good against control as well as grindy match ups or times when having pressure is a benefit. As for Gideon, I have never personally found him useful and don't run him myself. However I believe he would be best against midrange or slower aggro strategies. You don't necessarily need as many counters in those games and he is just removal and fog on a stick, then a win con. They don't flood the board so you can control how much damage he takes a turn with your own removal, then you use your counters to protect him when you go to be the aggressor. Of course he also has the huge benefit of being a 6/6 on the board after a verdict.
I just find that Elspeth suns champion is almost always better so I don't like devoting a slot to him.
Played about 40 paper matches in the last 5 days, and I'm now on this. This should spark a healthy amount of argument lol.
4x flooded strand
4x polluted delta
3x island
2x plains
1x swamp
2x hallowed fountain
2x watery grave
3x drowned catacomb
2x irrigated farmland
1x mystic gate
3x snapcaster mage
4x think twice
4x esper charm
2x sphinx's revelation
4x path to exile
2x fatal push
4x supreme verdict
3x logic knot
2x negate
4x cryptic command
3x thoughtseize
1x negate
2x dispel
3x engineered explosives
3x blessed alliance
1x lightmine field
2x runed halo
lightmine field is pretty stupid against lingering souls (a weak spot) or dumb stuff like affinity and elves or inkmoth decks in general, or tokens. depends on your meta
everything else is pretty stock, 27 lands is because I hated playing serum visions everytime I drew it. The only thing I ever wanted to dig for was more land, so we upped that to 27 like a proper-draw goer, and then compensated with a couple irrigated farmland
you could also shove in an oona's grace in place of something, but meh.
feels great against the field, no big bombs for gb/x, but they've never felt necessary. We essentially lose to lili, and engineered explosives effectively solves that. goyfs and bobs aren't an issue for so much removal. so we lose to lili or souls usually *shrug*
It helps a lot to think about boarding not as silver bullets, but as "how do I actually usually LOSE this match" and just try to band aid that. We don't need to be playing 4 color crumble to dust bullet decks anymore
Have fun guys!
No arguments from me but the sideboard is interesting, 3 EE, 3 discard and no graveyard hate. Do you just lean on removal and Halos against dredge? I ask because I hate loosing to dredge more then any other deck.
you'll need halos and paths / snap paths to clean up the amalgams. But, that's not too terrible.
I'd actually like to squeeze another lightmine in the SB. EngExp is too good against stuff like lantern, and random jank to cut any of those though.
maybe cut a thoughtseize depending on the meta. Dredge doesn't bother me much. I hate losing to burn, hence the dispels and extra blessed alliances
Bed time for me.
My plan on shift is just counter wincons, but once they reach critical mass of mountains it's eating 3, 6 or even 9 damage per mountain.
Who's the expert on beating big mana?
@Robo_Memer on Twitter, Twitch, Reddit, and YouTube
Feel free to PM me about Affinity decks in any format!
I load up on ways to stop titans and valakut and keep protection from reclamation sage and nature's claims they will bring in.
Esper draw go Control!
Twitch stream: http://www.twitch.tv/pimpdonny
2 hands to clap, 1(or more) hands to hold said applauding hands...
This isn't adding up.
Can anyone lend a hand?
Do you really think lightmine field is better than something like night of souls betrayal (or even jace, architect of thought?) It feels too low-impact at 4 cmc, but I've never really played it in modern.
Thoughts on extractions in your board to compliment the discard?
A lot of us have moved over to it, to good success.
I also think 3 ee + the lightmine field is a bit overkill against tokens, but if you expect them a lot, it might be reasonable.
I think celestial purge/anguished unmaking are pretty strong right now, as well, if you want more answers to lili (in addition to other things).
Do you feel the lack of ghost quarters? With 27 lands I feel like you could find some room.
Against valakut decks, runed halo, leylines, and extractions (on valakut, ideally).
Against eldrazi tron, counterspells, discard, and wraths tend to do good work.
I would highly recommend saving ghost quarters for problem lands like cavern of souls, or seagate wreckage, as they don't tend to play multiples of them, but they can be very problematic. They play so much ramp that trying to turn them off tron/temples is not really all that strong.
Not as good vs Eldrazi or Tron, but adds cards vs burn and the like, and still fine vs other control.
Edit: After reading through some older posts it seems not grabbing walkers and the like makes Brutality not really worth it.
UWGBant EldraziUWGDecided I don't like Todd Stevens decks.UBRGrixis ControlUBR
UUUAnd anything that plays 4x Cryptic CommandUUU
If you have an opening to drop a wsz for a couple tokens I take it, it goes back in and a verdict means they just used 4 mana on their turn which usually is the green light to pepper their hand with charms or resolve a mini or mid size rev. We never care about win cons dying, the builds with secure have a uphill battle by virtue of eventually decking, where we can at the very least wsz for 1 or even 0 to get it back in the deck.
Esper draw go Control!
Twitch stream: http://www.twitch.tv/pimpdonny
Lightmine Field was originally Jace AOT, but lightmine stops bloodghast, inkmoth nexus that are wearing cranial plating,
vendilion clique, snapcaster mage, forces insectile aberration to attack alone rather than multiples, plus also hoses affinity and elves in addition to lingering souls, dark confidant beats etc.
So far it's felt REALLY great, and you can always cast Zenith for x= a lot, then untap, cryptic tap their team / bounce lightmine for the win when it's time.
UWGBant EldraziUWGDecided I don't like Todd Stevens decks.UBRGrixis ControlUBR
UUUAnd anything that plays 4x Cryptic CommandUUU
That's a really serious accusation, Pastor. Just pointing out that he might have the same feeling about you. You guys have the most arguments out of anyone in this thread, so he is probably gonna get on your nerves.
W[mana]U[/mana]BEsper Control
Ya, I don't run halos or extraction but I will have to pick some up. I think they really shore up some bad match ups.
Anyone has input on this ? I think I should counter and not be scared to tap out since they usually play either breach or scapeshift, right ?