Aye, that's one thing I've noticed as well. Leyline isn't that effective against us if we manage to go off as we're able to eventually draw a card that deals with it. Something like Eidolon of Rhetoric or Spirit of the Labyrinth are far more problematic.
The games where RW prison has managed to lock me out involved Stony Silence + Blood Moon (no blue) or Chalice 0 + Chalice 2 (fragmentize or bust). Leyline by itself is completely ineffective and playing around one hate piece is very doable but two of the right hate pieces can do it and three can be lights out.
I think the very bad matchups are a real problem in terms of climbing the tier levels. I don't think any of the top decks have a matchup as bad as our matchup with DS Jund. They may not have any matchups as good as our matchup against Tron but its easier to win fifteen out of sixteen 55/45 and 45/55 matchups than it is to win the same mix of 80/20 and 20/80 matchups. The fact that we're so swingy in individual matchups makes us less swingy in terms of tournament results.
Interestingly, Shea Strausman dropped on Day 1 of the Open before making the run to 14th at the Classic on Sunday. Shea's run included a 2-1 win against Abzan Evolution, but I can't find any other matchups he won or lost.
David Dannewitz ended up at 27 points after 15 rounds, a 9-6 final standing. He lost his last six rounds to Brad Brown's Abzan (1-2), Michael Majors' DS Jund (1-2), Brian Spurlock's Merfolk (1-2), Bronson Gervasi's Burn (0-2), Clay Spicklemire's DS Jund (0-2), and an unknown deck. This is slightly worse than Taufik's 10-5 run at GP Brisbane. David used an SSG list with no SV. Taufik used the Song/SV build. Shea also used the Song/SV build.
Based on this, the deck clearly needs some work. I'm tempted to start in the sideboard: I believe Paradoxical Outcome might be too slow for DS Jund and we might need another option to make this matchup better. Thoughts?
I think favor of the mighty might find a place in my side. They rarely play creatures higher than 2 cmc and if they do on turn 3 that essentially protects our engines for a go on our turn anyhow.
Based on this, the deck clearly needs some work. I'm tempted to start in the sideboard: I believe Paradoxical Outcome might be too slow for DS Jund and we might need another option to make this matchup better. Thoughts?
Another idea I was considering was with the lists trying SSG...why not try chalice? Chalice for 1 on turn 1 stops all kinds of hurt on our deck from discard to push/bolt/path. It also does a fair bit protecting things later on, and stops traverse. I think with the 8 turn 1 ramp options it might have the capacity to do a lot of work in that build.
The creature disruption problem is something that's been on my radar for awhile since I've been brewing a Sprout Swarm combo deck since TSP. What do y'all think of Return to the Ranks as an SB option to put 1 or more engines back into play to recover and combo off? (apologies if this was suggested earlier in the thread; I didn't go through the first 30 pages :)).
I realize this is a long shot, but if anyone here is going to be at NC States tomorrow and has a spare Retract...I lost one of mine and am in pretty dire straits if I can't find one. None of my local shops have any in stock and I can't look further out because I work until about 10pm.
Also, look for me tomorrow anyway. I'd love to meet my copilots and talk tech and swap stories.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Slowly breaking.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I realize this is a long shot, but if anyone here is going to be at NC States tomorrow and has a spare Retract...I lost one of mine and am in pretty dire straits if I can't find one. None of my local shops have any in stock and I can't look further out because I work until about 10pm.
Also, look for me tomorrow anyway. I'd love to meet my copilots and talk tech and swap stories.
Good luck at States, I have one spare retract, but am too far out Someone there should have something.
The creature disruption problem is something that's been on my radar for awhile since I've been brewing a Sprout Swarm combo deck since TSP. What do y'all think of Return to the Ranks as an SB option to put 1 or more engines back into play to recover and combo off? (apologies if this was suggested earlier in the thread; I didn't go through the first 30 pages :)).
I think it might work as a 1 of. I have been dabbling with Postmortem Lunge and I think out of the side against DS Jund and the like it may have a place.
So guys. I just got home from States. I went 4-3 and will write a full report later, but for now:
I faced 4 Death's Shadow decks in 7 rounds. And even though I only beat one of them, the matchup feels about 50/50. I lost to really stupid stuff, like sticking a dude through 2 discard spells and 3 removal spells but not drawing an equipment for 6 turns. Or choosing to drop a Paladin instead of Grapeshotting his board. Or keeping absolutely awful hands because my manabomb (Red Bull mixed with a mana potion) totally wrecked my thinking.
Their clock is much more explosive than normal Jund, but I think the biggest take aways about the matchup are as follows:
1) DO NOT sit down thinking you've lost. Don't even think you're in a bad matchup. "Fear is the mindkiller. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration." The matchup is not as bad as you think, and you have a pretty decent chance. This is absolutely the most important thing.
2) Mulligans are important. Don't keep 4+ lands, even if it has a dude. Don't keep hands without dudes. Do not throw away a good hand looking for resilience.
3) I'm pretty convinced the sideboard tech in DS heavy metas is 3 more Grapeshots. Literally every game I played (except the ones I just combo'd off Turn 2, obviously), Grapeshot would've been a lethal topdeck for a decent number of turns before I actually died. The ability to just dump a few equipments, cast 1 Retract, and then natural storm for 8-12 is absolutely bonkers against this deck. Outcome is too slow. Path doesn't swing the game enough. Silence is ok, but doesn't shine as much as it does against normal Jund, Abzan, and Grixis. Grapeshot is surprising, dodges their removal, can clear their board to buy time, and punishes their life loss.
4) Smart DS pilots are more scared of you then you are of them. This totally shook me to my core. If they know the deck, and know what it's capable of, they are terrified that they won't have enough answers. They will NEVER tap out. They will make suboptimal plays just to try to put more removal in their hand. You're scared they'll bolt your Paladin; they are scared they will die from the most dominant game state they can imagine having. This more than anything should show where this deck is. "Reasonably powerful" decks in a format do not make their unfavored matchups shake with fear.
5) Always practice smart play. <----This is where I failed all day. Seriously, keeping a 6 with no engine? What. For the inventor of the deck, and one who constantly tells people to mulligan aggressively, I sure do stink in actual games. Always think carefully, don't act quickly. The deck is about speed, not being sloppy. Use your Noxious Revivals carefully. Keep calm at all times. Keep track of the gamestate. Know your deck as well as you possibly can.
Anyways, I had an absolutely great time. Played a ton of fun magic, saw lots of cool people, and got amazing Goblin tokens from a close judge friend of mine. Hope you guys are having as much fun as I am, and are trying to spread the good feels to opponents as much as possible. If I leave any legacy with this deck, more than a ban or a busted format or even a stupid Top 8 at some big event; I want more people to play Magic for the purpose of having fun, and making other people smile. Tell jokes. Ask them about themselves. Be helpful and fair in the game; you'd be amazed at how far the smallest acts of good sportsmanship will go towards making people feel good about playing the game. And do it with whatever makes you happiest and most fulfilled. For me, this is the silliest, most euphoric combo sequence ever. Each draw trigger releases endorphins; hitting the Grapeshot feels so rewarding.
Went off the rails a bit there, sorry. Very mentally exhausted. Hopefully I'll be able to do a write up tomorrow, but if not look for it Tuesday, and in the meantime let's have some discussion on the Death's Shadow thing.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Slowly breaking.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
How is Grapeshot a great topdeck if you don't have a chance to go off? Dumping equip without a creature and Retract and Grapeshot? I've won that way before..
Glad you had fun! I haven't been able to play much Magic for weeks, so a big event sounds wonderful.
So guys. I just got home from States. I went 4-3 and will write a full report later, but for now:
I faced 4 Death's Shadow decks in 7 rounds. And even though I only beat one of them, the matchup feels about 50/50. I lost to really stupid stuff, like sticking a dude through 2 discard spells and 3 removal spells but not drawing an equipment for 6 turns. Or choosing to drop a Paladin instead of Grapeshotting his board. Or keeping absolutely awful hands because my manabomb (Red Bull mixed with a mana potion) totally wrecked my thinking.
Their clock is much more explosive than normal Jund, but I think the biggest take aways about the matchup are as follows:
1) DO NOT sit down thinking you've lost. Don't even think you're in a bad matchup. "Fear is the mindkiller. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration." The matchup is not as bad as you think, and you have a pretty decent chance. This is absolutely the most important thing.
2) Mulligans are important. Don't keep 4+ lands, even if it has a dude. Don't keep hands without dudes. Do not throw away a good hand looking for resilience.
3) I'm pretty convinced the sideboard tech in DS heavy metas is 3 more Grapeshots. Literally every game I played (except the ones I just combo'd off Turn 2, obviously), Grapeshot would've been a lethal topdeck for a decent number of turns before I actually died. The ability to just dump a few equipments, cast 1 Retract, and then natural storm for 8-12 is absolutely bonkers against this deck. Outcome is too slow. Path doesn't swing the game enough. Silence is ok, but doesn't shine as much as it does against normal Jund, Abzan, and Grixis. Grapeshot is surprising, dodges their removal, can clear their board to buy time, and punishes their life loss.
4) Smart DS pilots are more scared of you then you are of them. This totally shook me to my core. If they know the deck, and know what it's capable of, they are terrified that they won't have enough answers. They will NEVER tap out. They will make suboptimal plays just to try to put more removal in their hand. You're scared they'll bolt your Paladin; they are scared they will die from the most dominant game state they can imagine having. This more than anything should show where this deck is. "Reasonably powerful" decks in a format do not make their unfavored matchups shake with fear.
5) Always practice smart play. <----This is where I failed all day. Seriously, keeping a 6 with no engine? What. For the inventor of the deck, and one who constantly tells people to mulligan aggressively, I sure do stink in actual games. Always think carefully, don't act quickly. The deck is about speed, not being sloppy. Use your Noxious Revivals carefully. Keep calm at all times. Keep track of the gamestate. Know your deck as well as you possibly can.
Anyways, I had an absolutely great time. Played a ton of fun magic, saw lots of cool people, and got amazing Goblin tokens from a close judge friend of mine. Hope you guys are having as much fun as I am, and are trying to spread the good feels to opponents as much as possible. If I leave any legacy with this deck, more than a ban or a busted format or even a stupid Top 8 at some big event; I want more people to play Magic for the purpose of having fun, and making other people smile. Tell jokes. Ask them about themselves. Be helpful and fair in the game; you'd be amazed at how far the smallest acts of good sportsmanship will go towards making people feel good about playing the game. And do it with whatever makes you happiest and most fulfilled. For me, this is the silliest, most euphoric combo sequence ever. Each draw trigger releases endorphins; hitting the Grapeshot feels so rewarding.
Went off the rails a bit there, sorry. Very mentally exhausted. Hopefully I'll be able to do a write up tomorrow, but if not look for it Tuesday, and in the meantime let's have some discussion on the Death's Shadow thing.
Roger that and great job! Hitting 4 bad match-ups and coming out higher than 50/50 is definitely a job well done.
On the DS Jund match-up in addition to other decks with turn 1 and 2 disruption I think Judge's Familiar deserves re-evaluation. It knocks back their disruption a turn and allows us to protect on curve. I am going to start testing it rigorously tomorrow.
2) Mulligans are important. Don't keep 4+ lands, even if it has a dude. Don't keep hands without dudes. Do not throw away a good hand looking for resilience.
Thanks for the report! Sorry to hear you didn't go all the way, but 4-3 is a nice finish given the hateful matchups you faced. Lots to respond to here, but this is the main quote I want to address.
Totally agree that mulligans are important and that 4+ land hands are generally bad. Same goes for mulling to protection. That said, mulling a playable 6 carder with an SV is really dangerous against DS Jund. Basically all the DS Jund decks run 8 discard spells, but most run 4-6 removal spells. This means you are more likely to eat a T1 discard spell than you are to eat the T2 removal, especially on the draw.
For example, if you are on the play and have a playable 6 card hand with SV, you can lead SV and have a better chance of seeing the engine on the scry 2 and not the draw 1. In that case, your opponent probably loses if they lead with discard and your engine was on top. By contrast, the keepable 5 card hand with an engine loses to both the T1 discard and the T2 removal, whereas the 6 carder just lost to the T2 removal. Once you get in topdeck mode, the 6 carder with SV is still better because you have one extra card and already dug 3 deep. The 5 carder has to naturally draw gas and you probably haven't dug at all (unless you mulled into a 5 carder with SV, land, and engine, but that's very improbable).
I will say that a 6 card hand without SV or an engine is not keepable. But I'll also say an otherwise playable 7 card hand with two SV and no engine is definitely keepable against DS Jund. The percentages are just in your favor.
On the DS Jund match-up in addition to other decks with turn 1 and 2 disruption I think Judge's Familiar deserves re-evaluation. It knocks back their disruption a turn and allows us to protect on curve. I am going to start testing it rigorously tomorrow.
Familiar could be decent against DS Jund. It's definitely better than Outcome which, as serene said, is horrendous against that deck. On the play, T1 Familiar stops T1 discard and T1 removal cold. On the draw, however, an opponent can still hold up removal mana. Hope of Ghirapur solves the removal issue, but doesn't do anything against discard. Noxious Revival recovers your engine from both discard and removal, but it doesn't protect your engine from removal on the same turn. Lots of options, but none that quite address the issue.
[quote from="Shaffalahien »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/deck-creation-modern/757602-modern-cheeri0s-puresteel-equipment-storm?comment=929"]
On the DS Jund match-up in addition to other decks with turn 1 and 2 disruption I think Judge's Familiar deserves re-evaluation. It knocks back their disruption a turn and allows us to protect on curve. I am going to start testing it rigorously tomorrow.
Familiar could be decent against DS Jund. It's definitely better than Outcome which, as serene said, is horrendous against that deck. On the play, T1 Familiar stops T1 discard and T1 removal cold. On the draw, however, an opponent can still hold up removal mana. Hope of Ghirapur solves the removal issue, but doesn't do anything against discard. Noxious Revival recovers your engine from both discard and removal, but it doesn't protect your engine from removal on the same turn. Lots of options, but none that quite address the issue.
I agree that on the draw Judge's Familiar can't stop the issues completely, but I think that as a sideboard card it works great in these match-ups as you will mostly be on the play game 2 anyhow. I think it has been established that in general game 1 we are on the wrong end of 75/25 or 80/20 in these match-ups, so having that in the side would be a great boost. Game 3 bears some thought as the familiar should probably be boarded out for something else, but I think it gives us the best chance of any of our options at getting us to game 3. When in hand it has been a godsend for those G2's on the play. Perhaps we toy with leylines, extra Noxious Revival's, or recursion sides like Postmortem Lunge for G3 when we know our guys are getting quick tickets to the yard.
Ultimately I think that this DS Jund Deck is going to grow to 8% of the meta at the very least in the larger competitions, which in turn will grow the Abzan share as well since it is one of the few decks that has a favorable match-up with it. With more gnarly interactive decks coming online it seems that pivoting towards more protection may be the ticket if we want to improve our day 2 results. This may increase the fizzle rate, and hence our rate of stomping non-interactive decks into the ground, but if we can get to a 60/40 or better I will give up some games to tron and merfolk due to inconsistency if it gets our over-all win/loss ratio in this meta up to competitive levels.
Kind of an odd thought, but what about Deflecting Palm for DS Jund? It doesn't feed into our deck at all, but they certainly do tempt fate with their life total often enough. It would be poetic to watch them fatal push their own Death's Shadow to avoid lethal.
I've been thinking about our deck and the DS Jund and Grixis Delver matchups.
If you think about it, we basically have a one card combo. We also get to play eight copies of that card. If you have a copy of Sram or Puresteel then given the rest of the deck you will sometimes have a turn 2 goldfish, usually have a turn 3 goldfish, and almost always have a turn 4 goldfish. It's like Ad Nauseam and Angel's Grace were merged into one card and that card only cost two mana.
But... we can only combo off at sorcery speed. Our combo card is also very vulnerable to removal. This means that we can lose to somebody interacting with the combo part of our deck (i.e. Chalice of the Void) but we can also lose to somebody who is geared up to interact with creatures. Delver decks will usually run eight or more ways to kill our guy (path/bolt/push/terminate/helix) along with some number of counterspells and snapcasters. DS Jund runs ~6 removal spells and 8 discard spells.
In addition, in order to make our combo work a large portion of our deck consists of cards that are blanks when we aren't comboing off (the 0s and retracts). Splinter Twin decks used to dedicate around 12 cards to the combo. We dedicate around 32. This makes it difficult to put a package in place that would let us fight through interaction or that would allow us to win without the combo.
So we have a deck that is very explosive but also easier to disrupt than other combo decks. I don't think we can turn around the Delver matchup or the Jund matchup with a few sideboard cards. We can win sometimes by mising countermagic and blitzing them out but to really be favored I think we need to find a way to make the deck more consistent and resilient if less explosive.
Is there some way we can play at instant speed? Goryo's Vengeance can bring back Sram during the opponent's end step, but that doesn't feel like a very consistent move.
How low can we go on the equipment count? If we're willing to accept a few turns of chaining equipment draws for value instead of immediate kills, could we free up space to build in redundancy? Alternatively, is there some way to squeeze value from the 0s without Sram/Puresteel in play?
Related to the previous point, could we actually replace some number of retracts with paradoxical outcomes? It would let us get more mileage out of fewer equipment at the cost of sacrificing speed.
Leyline of Anticipation has been a legitimate maindeck consideration for quite some time. It makes the combo turn slightly tighter, since you essentially had one less card in hand to start and their removal "counters" one of your equipments. But it wins in response to removal, and if they have a super hateful hand, then your one Paladin 2 or 3 for 1's them and the next dude is in the clear.
In the hyperaggressive lists, it also allows you to win on opponent's upkeep on the draw a la Flash Hulk. Not likely, but lulzy.
If you want Outcomes maindeck, you have to keep Retracts and probably your one Hurkyl's, but they would come in over flex slots like Swan Songs. Some lists run Inspiring Statuary to make it free.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Slowly breaking.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
Always think carefully, don't act quickly. The deck is about speed, not being sloppy. Use your Noxious Revivals carefully. Keep calm at all times. Keep track of the gamestate. Know your deck as well as you possibly can.
This is great advice.
Playing mostly on MTGO these days, when people do this it is readily apparent. For ezample, I'll see a delver player when I was on burn , in that match up delver needs to "race" as best they can. But my opponent will begin playing very quickly, because they are thinking 'race' but that's not what it means. It means get the life total down in less turns, which requires even more slow and careful play. I have a good win rate against players who play quickly, because it almost invariably means they are making mistakes and its just my job to find them. I used to make this mistake in chess quite frequently, and do so much less now after years of doing so across many games.
Playing with tempo, does not mean playing faster on the clock.
WBG Elves WBG
Cheeri0s
EDH:
RG Omnath, Locus of Rage RG || GWUB Atraxa, Praetors' Voice GWUB
R Zo-Zu the Punisher R || WU Brago, King Eternal WU
UB Gisa and Geralf UB || BGW Ghave, Guru of Spores BGW
I think the very bad matchups are a real problem in terms of climbing the tier levels. I don't think any of the top decks have a matchup as bad as our matchup with DS Jund. They may not have any matchups as good as our matchup against Tron but its easier to win fifteen out of sixteen 55/45 and 45/55 matchups than it is to win the same mix of 80/20 and 20/80 matchups. The fact that we're so swingy in individual matchups makes us less swingy in terms of tournament results.
I think favor of the mighty might find a place in my side. They rarely play creatures higher than 2 cmc and if they do on turn 3 that essentially protects our engines for a go on our turn anyhow.
Another idea I was considering was with the lists trying SSG...why not try chalice? Chalice for 1 on turn 1 stops all kinds of hurt on our deck from discard to push/bolt/path. It also does a fair bit protecting things later on, and stops traverse. I think with the 8 turn 1 ramp options it might have the capacity to do a lot of work in that build.
Oops, forgot the retract non-bo...
Also, look for me tomorrow anyway. I'd love to meet my copilots and talk tech and swap stories.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
Good luck at States, I have one spare retract, but am too far out Someone there should have something.
I think it might work as a 1 of. I have been dabbling with Postmortem Lunge and I think out of the side against DS Jund and the like it may have a place.
I faced 4 Death's Shadow decks in 7 rounds. And even though I only beat one of them, the matchup feels about 50/50. I lost to really stupid stuff, like sticking a dude through 2 discard spells and 3 removal spells but not drawing an equipment for 6 turns. Or choosing to drop a Paladin instead of Grapeshotting his board. Or keeping absolutely awful hands because my manabomb (Red Bull mixed with a mana potion) totally wrecked my thinking.
Their clock is much more explosive than normal Jund, but I think the biggest take aways about the matchup are as follows:
1) DO NOT sit down thinking you've lost. Don't even think you're in a bad matchup. "Fear is the mindkiller. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration." The matchup is not as bad as you think, and you have a pretty decent chance. This is absolutely the most important thing.
2) Mulligans are important. Don't keep 4+ lands, even if it has a dude. Don't keep hands without dudes. Do not throw away a good hand looking for resilience.
3) I'm pretty convinced the sideboard tech in DS heavy metas is 3 more Grapeshots. Literally every game I played (except the ones I just combo'd off Turn 2, obviously), Grapeshot would've been a lethal topdeck for a decent number of turns before I actually died. The ability to just dump a few equipments, cast 1 Retract, and then natural storm for 8-12 is absolutely bonkers against this deck. Outcome is too slow. Path doesn't swing the game enough. Silence is ok, but doesn't shine as much as it does against normal Jund, Abzan, and Grixis. Grapeshot is surprising, dodges their removal, can clear their board to buy time, and punishes their life loss.
4) Smart DS pilots are more scared of you then you are of them. This totally shook me to my core. If they know the deck, and know what it's capable of, they are terrified that they won't have enough answers. They will NEVER tap out. They will make suboptimal plays just to try to put more removal in their hand. You're scared they'll bolt your Paladin; they are scared they will die from the most dominant game state they can imagine having. This more than anything should show where this deck is. "Reasonably powerful" decks in a format do not make their unfavored matchups shake with fear.
5) Always practice smart play. <----This is where I failed all day. Seriously, keeping a 6 with no engine? What. For the inventor of the deck, and one who constantly tells people to mulligan aggressively, I sure do stink in actual games. Always think carefully, don't act quickly. The deck is about speed, not being sloppy. Use your Noxious Revivals carefully. Keep calm at all times. Keep track of the gamestate. Know your deck as well as you possibly can.
Anyways, I had an absolutely great time. Played a ton of fun magic, saw lots of cool people, and got amazing Goblin tokens from a close judge friend of mine. Hope you guys are having as much fun as I am, and are trying to spread the good feels to opponents as much as possible. If I leave any legacy with this deck, more than a ban or a busted format or even a stupid Top 8 at some big event; I want more people to play Magic for the purpose of having fun, and making other people smile. Tell jokes. Ask them about themselves. Be helpful and fair in the game; you'd be amazed at how far the smallest acts of good sportsmanship will go towards making people feel good about playing the game. And do it with whatever makes you happiest and most fulfilled. For me, this is the silliest, most euphoric combo sequence ever. Each draw trigger releases endorphins; hitting the Grapeshot feels so rewarding.
Went off the rails a bit there, sorry. Very mentally exhausted. Hopefully I'll be able to do a write up tomorrow, but if not look for it Tuesday, and in the meantime let's have some discussion on the Death's Shadow thing.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
Glad you had fun! I haven't been able to play much Magic for weeks, so a big event sounds wonderful.
Roger that and great job! Hitting 4 bad match-ups and coming out higher than 50/50 is definitely a job well done.
On the DS Jund match-up in addition to other decks with turn 1 and 2 disruption I think Judge's Familiar deserves re-evaluation. It knocks back their disruption a turn and allows us to protect on curve. I am going to start testing it rigorously tomorrow.
Thanks for the report! Sorry to hear you didn't go all the way, but 4-3 is a nice finish given the hateful matchups you faced. Lots to respond to here, but this is the main quote I want to address.
Totally agree that mulligans are important and that 4+ land hands are generally bad. Same goes for mulling to protection. That said, mulling a playable 6 carder with an SV is really dangerous against DS Jund. Basically all the DS Jund decks run 8 discard spells, but most run 4-6 removal spells. This means you are more likely to eat a T1 discard spell than you are to eat the T2 removal, especially on the draw.
For example, if you are on the play and have a playable 6 card hand with SV, you can lead SV and have a better chance of seeing the engine on the scry 2 and not the draw 1. In that case, your opponent probably loses if they lead with discard and your engine was on top. By contrast, the keepable 5 card hand with an engine loses to both the T1 discard and the T2 removal, whereas the 6 carder just lost to the T2 removal. Once you get in topdeck mode, the 6 carder with SV is still better because you have one extra card and already dug 3 deep. The 5 carder has to naturally draw gas and you probably haven't dug at all (unless you mulled into a 5 carder with SV, land, and engine, but that's very improbable).
I will say that a 6 card hand without SV or an engine is not keepable. But I'll also say an otherwise playable 7 card hand with two SV and no engine is definitely keepable against DS Jund. The percentages are just in your favor.
Familiar could be decent against DS Jund. It's definitely better than Outcome which, as serene said, is horrendous against that deck. On the play, T1 Familiar stops T1 discard and T1 removal cold. On the draw, however, an opponent can still hold up removal mana. Hope of Ghirapur solves the removal issue, but doesn't do anything against discard. Noxious Revival recovers your engine from both discard and removal, but it doesn't protect your engine from removal on the same turn. Lots of options, but none that quite address the issue.
I agree that on the draw Judge's Familiar can't stop the issues completely, but I think that as a sideboard card it works great in these match-ups as you will mostly be on the play game 2 anyhow. I think it has been established that in general game 1 we are on the wrong end of 75/25 or 80/20 in these match-ups, so having that in the side would be a great boost. Game 3 bears some thought as the familiar should probably be boarded out for something else, but I think it gives us the best chance of any of our options at getting us to game 3. When in hand it has been a godsend for those G2's on the play. Perhaps we toy with leylines, extra Noxious Revival's, or recursion sides like Postmortem Lunge for G3 when we know our guys are getting quick tickets to the yard.
Ultimately I think that this DS Jund Deck is going to grow to 8% of the meta at the very least in the larger competitions, which in turn will grow the Abzan share as well since it is one of the few decks that has a favorable match-up with it. With more gnarly interactive decks coming online it seems that pivoting towards more protection may be the ticket if we want to improve our day 2 results. This may increase the fizzle rate, and hence our rate of stomping non-interactive decks into the ground, but if we can get to a 60/40 or better I will give up some games to tron and merfolk due to inconsistency if it gets our over-all win/loss ratio in this meta up to competitive levels.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
If you think about it, we basically have a one card combo. We also get to play eight copies of that card. If you have a copy of Sram or Puresteel then given the rest of the deck you will sometimes have a turn 2 goldfish, usually have a turn 3 goldfish, and almost always have a turn 4 goldfish. It's like Ad Nauseam and Angel's Grace were merged into one card and that card only cost two mana.
But... we can only combo off at sorcery speed. Our combo card is also very vulnerable to removal. This means that we can lose to somebody interacting with the combo part of our deck (i.e. Chalice of the Void) but we can also lose to somebody who is geared up to interact with creatures. Delver decks will usually run eight or more ways to kill our guy (path/bolt/push/terminate/helix) along with some number of counterspells and snapcasters. DS Jund runs ~6 removal spells and 8 discard spells.
In addition, in order to make our combo work a large portion of our deck consists of cards that are blanks when we aren't comboing off (the 0s and retracts). Splinter Twin decks used to dedicate around 12 cards to the combo. We dedicate around 32. This makes it difficult to put a package in place that would let us fight through interaction or that would allow us to win without the combo.
So we have a deck that is very explosive but also easier to disrupt than other combo decks. I don't think we can turn around the Delver matchup or the Jund matchup with a few sideboard cards. We can win sometimes by mising countermagic and blitzing them out but to really be favored I think we need to find a way to make the deck more consistent and resilient if less explosive.
Is there some way we can play at instant speed? Goryo's Vengeance can bring back Sram during the opponent's end step, but that doesn't feel like a very consistent move.
How low can we go on the equipment count? If we're willing to accept a few turns of chaining equipment draws for value instead of immediate kills, could we free up space to build in redundancy? Alternatively, is there some way to squeeze value from the 0s without Sram/Puresteel in play?
Related to the previous point, could we actually replace some number of retracts with paradoxical outcomes? It would let us get more mileage out of fewer equipment at the cost of sacrificing speed.
In the hyperaggressive lists, it also allows you to win on opponent's upkeep on the draw a la Flash Hulk. Not likely, but lulzy.
If you want Outcomes maindeck, you have to keep Retracts and probably your one Hurkyl's, but they would come in over flex slots like Swan Songs. Some lists run Inspiring Statuary to make it free.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
This is great advice.
Playing mostly on MTGO these days, when people do this it is readily apparent. For ezample, I'll see a delver player when I was on burn , in that match up delver needs to "race" as best they can. But my opponent will begin playing very quickly, because they are thinking 'race' but that's not what it means. It means get the life total down in less turns, which requires even more slow and careful play. I have a good win rate against players who play quickly, because it almost invariably means they are making mistakes and its just my job to find them. I used to make this mistake in chess quite frequently, and do so much less now after years of doing so across many games.
Playing with tempo, does not mean playing faster on the clock.
Modern: Bogles // 8-Whack/Goblins // UW Titan // Hollow One // Affinity // Dredge
EDH: Nissa, Vastwood Seer // Atraxa, Praetor's Voice // Meren of Clan Nel Toth