It was rough to see Jon Stern draw and play Ensnaring Bridge on turn 3 each game and you not having the quick kills. Loved the EoT win though. The commentators and Jon Stern seemed to be pretty shaken after that one.
You know we're going to need a tournament report from Amat, Finalnub, and any other Grishoalbrand players from that GP.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
thanks guys. Almost got there! that was a tough beat but something I definitely considered, ultimately ruling against bringing in sprees. I have way more thoughts about the tournament, but right now it still feels surreal and I'm taking it all in. May write a report about this in the coming week or so.
I quickly went 0-3 drop. In every single one of my postsideboarded games I was dealing with a Relic of Progenitus or a Grafdigger's Cage on turn 1. What's worse is that I lost three favourable matchups (Skred Red, Blue Moon Breach, Burn).
Clearly you took all the Goryo's Vengeance luck this week!
Thinking back it was a pretty eventful weekend. No real free win (except one Gx Tron). Most wins were hard fought for.
Preview: I beat Jonathan Rosum on Jeskai Control after he resolved a Runed Halo on Griselbrand, Runed Halo on Borborygmos Enraged, and Cliqued my one Worldspine Wurm to the bottom.
Hi, Finalnub!
Congrats for the results yesterday on the GP. Was amazing. Unfortunately Burn becomes monored Prison :/. But was awsome! Great Plays and great player!
Send us the report when you writr it!
Do you have any article or sideboard Guide for us? I really have dificult to sideboard and often sideout some goryos Vengeance to break the grave resiliance and change the strategy. It’s working really good, but I want to hear you about your sideboard choices. And what do you think about the Twin Reanimator that get 2 place on the Classic.
Thanks Samurai. I actually posted a rough sketch of my sideboard plan last page in prep for toronto. Have a look at that one
As for the As Foretold Kiki madness, I'm convinced it's bad, as the Plan B is not smooth and the deck doesn't have a lot of room for digging. That said, I will give it a try because.. why wouldn't you try that trainwreck??
Here's another edition of What's the Play, now with 100% more video coverage! I've been thinking about this game for a while so I'm curious to hear what you guys think is the solution.
Situation: G3 vs Jon Stern on Burn OTD. Jon has brought in and just resolved Ensnaring Bridge. The board is now 2 lands and 18 life for me, 3 lands, Eidolon of the Great Revel and Ensnaring Bridge with 17 life. My hand is land, 2 SSG, Breach, Worldspine wurm.
1) What should my approach be now to win the game?
2) We play draw/go for the next bit. I draw a Lightning Axe down the road. Jon has made sure to always have 4 or less cards in hand. I have a 1 point life lead. Should I Lightning Axe the Eidolon? If so/if not, what is your revised approach to winning the game? Does your answer change if you draw a Borborygmos Enraged?
3) Around the 10:00:00 mark, I'm down to 8 and Leyline of Sanctity is now in play for Jon. Jon has passed the turn. I have a Breach, Griselbrand and a Manamorphose. What should I do?
Relevant information not available to the commentators:
I bottomed my only Manamorphose in the first few turns of the game
I’m playing the Twin Reanimator with some changes(Add more interaction, testing with discard, counter, removals, etc.). The deck seems good!
But need some thoughts abobve it.
About Grishoalbrand, i really love the deck! Really! And seeing you play, it looks like só consistent. But sometimes seems a matter of luck. I try to think 2 or 3 rounds foreward for my plays. But its impossible to predict the draws with Griselbrand hahahaha.
Do you think that the deck is really solid? Which are the prioritys on the discards of Looting? And what are your thoughts about tormenting Voice instead Cathartic!
Here's another edition of What's the Play, now with 100% more video coverage! I've been thinking about this game for a while so I'm curious to hear what you guys think is the solution.
Situation: G3 vs Jon Stern on Burn OTD. Jon has brought in and just resolved Ensnaring Bridge. The board is now 2 lands and 18 life for me, 3 lands, Eidolon of the Great Revel and Ensnaring Bridge with 17 life. My hand is land, 2 SSG, Breach, Worldspine wurm.
1) What should my approach be now to win the game?
2) We play draw/go for the next bit. I draw a Lightning Axe down the road. Jon has made sure to always have 4 or less cards in hand. I have a 1 point life lead. Should I Lightning Axe the Eidolon? If so/if not, what is your revised approach to winning the game? Does your answer change if you draw a Borborygmos Enraged?
3) Around the 10:00:00 mark, I'm down to 8 and Leyline of Sanctity is now in play for Jon. Jon has passed the turn. I have a Breach, Griselbrand and a Manamorphose. What should I do?
Relevant information not available to the commentators:
I bottomed my only Manamorphose in the first few turns of the game
1) This is such an awkward spot..... EE and/or griseldad to kill with Boryb are the only real outs at this point. To get to this point it may take time, which against burn may not be much. Here are my relevant lines to get to that point
Part A TTB WSW and put up blockers as you will have a 0% chance of attacking the rest of the game unless you can fine an EE and Manamorphose(which has to be a super low %). This Obv buys you time and the opp will do dmg to himself throughout the game until he deals with Eidolon or you block it.
Part B Find a way to get griselbrand into play. If you have used a TTB already u have 3 additional and 4 goryos. The risk with goryos is the RIP he has in his deck. So Im def not dropping grisel in the yard unless i can animate the same turn. Grisel can draw us card but the main fear here is that he prob has a skull crack in hand and its going to be difficult to Shoal since I think he boarded in all 4 skull cracks
2) I dont know that I pop his Eidolon as we dont have a clear path to win. Eidolon creating a stalemate but her has inevitability at this point so very hard spot since we will take a lot of dmg flashing back the lootings. I think I keep drawing hoping to find a cathartic/final looting then pop it.
3) At this point I think you played to your only win condition because going below 8 pretty much loses us the game unless we can top deck a 1 outer.
As played I think you saw your clear win condition(TTB WSW) and he had the bridge.
A) My list plays 4 Bloodstained Mires as the only fetchlands for shuffling. However, a Worldspine Wurm dying is also a shuffle.
B) A few people have asked me why not let the Eidolon live, since it looked to be a stalemate. In my eyes, there was only the illusion of a stalemate. Jon has all the agency over whether Eidolon is beneficial for him or to remove him. He can simply start attacking with Eidolons and I have to choose between 2 damage or Eidolon's life, or he can just kill the Eidolon himself because his deck is, well, full of burn (bolt, rift bolt, helix, path). On one level, if Jon is not bothering to suicide attack with Eidolon or kill his own Eidolon, you can infer the Eidolon is probably better for him than me. On another level, his deck has inevitability and I have 3 Faithless Lootings in the graveyard, plus any future Cathartic Reunions to dig into my win cons.
B) is the one I've had the most trouble with. I would love to hear any counterarguments. TLDR I think the stalemate presented is an illusion.
I count 21 known cards in the play/hand/GY/exile, so 39 cards left in the deck.
I have 8 life left. From his play pattern (i.e. not deploying his cards for a few turns), I can infer that he has Path/Bridge/some number of burn in his hand. The question is, is the Pr(draw 7 cards and find EE without getting burned out OR finding a 1 of Pact of Negation, then finding an EE in the next 7) higher than Pr(flashback looting this turn and find an EE in the next 4 draws i.e. 1 loot+next draw step+manamorphose WITHOUT DYING)?
Scenario A - Attempt to draw 7 with Griselbrand
Pr(Find EE in the next 8 cards from Griselbrand+Manamorphose)=~20.5%
Pr(Find EE in the next 8 cards from Griselbrand)=~18%
Pr(Jon has at least 1 burn spell to kill in response)=x. Let's estimate x ~80% because, well, it's a Burn deck
Pr(I find my 1 of Manamorphose to counter his kill spell)=2.6%
Estimated win rate with the Griselbrand draw 7 line
=Pr(find EE in the next 8 cards without dying)+Pr(find Pact of Negation in the next 1 card, then find an EE in the next 7 draw)
=20.5%*(1-80%)+2.6%*18%
=~4.6%
4.6% could even be too high, as Jon may be something like 90% to have a burn spell to kill in response. If I assume Jon has at least one burn spell, the win rate goes down to 2.5%. Plus he may have two+ burn spells.
Scenario B - Dig with Looting towards EE and hope you don't get burned out before your next attack phase
Pr(I find an EE in the next 4 cards from Looting+draw step+Manamorphose)=10.2%
Pr(I die before I get to attack in the next attack phase)=y. This is very tough to estimate. I doubt he has lands left because he missed a landdrop on the turn he played Leyline and the 2 turns after, and not playing lands when you are trying to stay under 5 cards in hand is suicide. 8 damages of burn is basically 3 burn spells. So the hand must be some combination of path/bridges/sandbagged burn. Note that we cannot beat Paths regardless because of Goblin Guide and the heavily implied bridge #2. I think y=~50% is a reasonable assumption, meaning:
Pr(Loot once, draw, and Manamorphose to find an EE)
=10.2%*50% =~5.1%
Heavily dependent on the assumptions, but I think Looting and hopign to live to the next turn is probably better.
I honestly don't think a deck like shoal cares? I'd say other versions of goryo's / griselbrand decks have to probably figure out something, but If my opponent taps out on T4 I'm feeling pretty good about my chances.
Hoping it's of interest to some of you, but finalnub (Jonathan Zhang) was kind enough to stop by my podcast to talk about his deck and you can check him out on audio or video form here: http://manadeprived.com/65-modern-burn-jon-stern.
We're also in talks to get an article posted. I'm just really happy to have met the man because once you hear how his mind thinks about the deck, I was sold that he was a legit dude that knows his stuff. Thanks again for coming on, finalnub! <3
It's almost comical how little the deck has changed since then. The sideboard is outdated for sure; I learned that with the sideboard you go big or go home, and that four mana is too much to pay for sweepers.
It was rough to see Jon Stern draw and play Ensnaring Bridge on turn 3 each game and you not having the quick kills. Loved the EoT win though. The commentators and Jon Stern seemed to be pretty shaken after that one.
You know we're going to need a tournament report from Amat, Finalnub, and any other Grishoalbrand players from that GP.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Looking back if that wasn't a ******* omen I don't know what would be
Clearly you took all the Goryo's Vengeance luck this week!
Thinking back it was a pretty eventful weekend. No real free win (except one Gx Tron). Most wins were hard fought for.
Preview: I beat Jonathan Rosum on Jeskai Control after he resolved a Runed Halo on Griselbrand, Runed Halo on Borborygmos Enraged, and Cliqued my one Worldspine Wurm to the bottom.
Congrats for the results yesterday on the GP. Was amazing. Unfortunately Burn becomes monored Prison :/. But was awsome! Great Plays and great player!
Send us the report when you writr it!
Do you have any article or sideboard Guide for us? I really have dificult to sideboard and often sideout some goryos Vengeance to break the grave resiliance and change the strategy. It’s working really good, but I want to hear you about your sideboard choices. And what do you think about the Twin Reanimator that get 2 place on the Classic.
Thnx and again, Congrats!
As for the As Foretold Kiki madness, I'm convinced it's bad, as the Plan B is not smooth and the deck doesn't have a lot of room for digging. That said, I will give it a try because.. why wouldn't you try that trainwreck??
Our scenario begins here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/227979044?t=09h50m30s
Situation: G3 vs Jon Stern on Burn OTD. Jon has brought in and just resolved Ensnaring Bridge. The board is now 2 lands and 18 life for me, 3 lands, Eidolon of the Great Revel and Ensnaring Bridge with 17 life. My hand is land, 2 SSG, Breach, Worldspine wurm.
1) What should my approach be now to win the game?
2) We play draw/go for the next bit. I draw a Lightning Axe down the road. Jon has made sure to always have 4 or less cards in hand. I have a 1 point life lead. Should I Lightning Axe the Eidolon? If so/if not, what is your revised approach to winning the game? Does your answer change if you draw a Borborygmos Enraged?
3) Around the 10:00:00 mark, I'm down to 8 and Leyline of Sanctity is now in play for Jon. Jon has passed the turn. I have a Breach, Griselbrand and a Manamorphose. What should I do?
Relevant information not available to the commentators:
I bottomed my only Manamorphose in the first few turns of the game
SB Plan:
-4 Night's Whispers
+2 Pact of Negation
+1 Engineered Explosives
+1 Collective Brutality
But need some thoughts abobve it.
About Grishoalbrand, i really love the deck! Really! And seeing you play, it looks like só consistent. But sometimes seems a matter of luck. I try to think 2 or 3 rounds foreward for my plays. But its impossible to predict the draws with Griselbrand hahahaha.
Do you think that the deck is really solid? Which are the prioritys on the discards of Looting? And what are your thoughts about tormenting Voice instead Cathartic!
Thnx!
1) This is such an awkward spot..... EE and/or griseldad to kill with Boryb are the only real outs at this point. To get to this point it may take time, which against burn may not be much. Here are my relevant lines to get to that point
Part A TTB WSW and put up blockers as you will have a 0% chance of attacking the rest of the game unless you can fine an EE and Manamorphose(which has to be a super low %). This Obv buys you time and the opp will do dmg to himself throughout the game until he deals with Eidolon or you block it.
Part B Find a way to get griselbrand into play. If you have used a TTB already u have 3 additional and 4 goryos. The risk with goryos is the RIP he has in his deck. So Im def not dropping grisel in the yard unless i can animate the same turn. Grisel can draw us card but the main fear here is that he prob has a skull crack in hand and its going to be difficult to Shoal since I think he boarded in all 4 skull cracks
2) I dont know that I pop his Eidolon as we dont have a clear path to win. Eidolon creating a stalemate but her has inevitability at this point so very hard spot since we will take a lot of dmg flashing back the lootings. I think I keep drawing hoping to find a cathartic/final looting then pop it.
3) At this point I think you played to your only win condition because going below 8 pretty much loses us the game unless we can top deck a 1 outer.
As played I think you saw your clear win condition(TTB WSW) and he had the bridge.
Interested to hear more thoughts
A) My list plays 4 Bloodstained Mires as the only fetchlands for shuffling. However, a Worldspine Wurm dying is also a shuffle.
B) A few people have asked me why not let the Eidolon live, since it looked to be a stalemate. In my eyes, there was only the illusion of a stalemate. Jon has all the agency over whether Eidolon is beneficial for him or to remove him. He can simply start attacking with Eidolons and I have to choose between 2 damage or Eidolon's life, or he can just kill the Eidolon himself because his deck is, well, full of burn (bolt, rift bolt, helix, path). On one level, if Jon is not bothering to suicide attack with Eidolon or kill his own Eidolon, you can infer the Eidolon is probably better for him than me. On another level, his deck has inevitability and I have 3 Faithless Lootings in the graveyard, plus any future Cathartic Reunions to dig into my win cons.
B) is the one I've had the most trouble with. I would love to hear any counterarguments. TLDR I think the stalemate presented is an illusion.
What would you done different?
I have 8 life left. From his play pattern (i.e. not deploying his cards for a few turns), I can infer that he has Path/Bridge/some number of burn in his hand. The question is, is the Pr(draw 7 cards and find EE without getting burned out OR finding a 1 of Pact of Negation, then finding an EE in the next 7) higher than Pr(flashback looting this turn and find an EE in the next 4 draws i.e. 1 loot+next draw step+manamorphose WITHOUT DYING)?
Scenario A - Attempt to draw 7 with Griselbrand
Pr(Find EE in the next 8 cards from Griselbrand+Manamorphose)=~20.5%
Pr(Find EE in the next 8 cards from Griselbrand)=~18%
Pr(Jon has at least 1 burn spell to kill in response)=x. Let's estimate x ~80% because, well, it's a Burn deck
Pr(I find my 1 of Manamorphose to counter his kill spell)=2.6%
Estimated win rate with the Griselbrand draw 7 line
=Pr(find EE in the next 8 cards without dying)+Pr(find Pact of Negation in the next 1 card, then find an EE in the next 7 draw)
=20.5%*(1-80%)+2.6%*18%
=~4.6%
4.6% could even be too high, as Jon may be something like 90% to have a burn spell to kill in response. If I assume Jon has at least one burn spell, the win rate goes down to 2.5%. Plus he may have two+ burn spells.
Scenario B - Dig with Looting towards EE and hope you don't get burned out before your next attack phase
Pr(I find an EE in the next 4 cards from Looting+draw step+Manamorphose)=10.2%
Pr(I die before I get to attack in the next attack phase)=y. This is very tough to estimate. I doubt he has lands left because he missed a landdrop on the turn he played Leyline and the 2 turns after, and not playing lands when you are trying to stay under 5 cards in hand is suicide. 8 damages of burn is basically 3 burn spells. So the hand must be some combination of path/bridges/sandbagged burn. Note that we cannot beat Paths regardless because of Goblin Guide and the heavily implied bridge #2. I think y=~50% is a reasonable assumption, meaning:
Pr(Loot once, draw, and Manamorphose to find an EE)
=10.2%*50%
=~5.1%
Heavily dependent on the assumptions, but I think Looting and hopign to live to the next turn is probably better.
We're also in talks to get an article posted. I'm just really happy to have met the man because once you hear how his mind thinks about the deck, I was sold that he was a legit dude that knows his stuff. Thanks again for coming on, finalnub! <3
BTW, congrats Jonathan! Well done, sir, well done.
http://www.mtgcanada.com/modern/how-to-not-play-magic-griselbrand-combo-at-the-wmcq-in-toronto-top-4/
It's almost comical how little the deck has changed since then. The sideboard is outdated for sure; I learned that with the sideboard you go big or go home, and that four mana is too much to pay for sweepers.