I don't follow the SCG meta super closely so it's hard to make specific calls but generally speaking I'd like my SB to be a little more well-rounded than that. I really only like playing Goyfs if BGx is very popular which it isn't right now, and you already have 4 Tusk which covers that base pretty well anyway. I like playing 2 Cage with UR Phoenix becoming popular, and to respect Dredge which is still very much around. I've never been a fan of 4 Nature's Claim - 3 is great but I think there's very few scenarios you want the 4th copy. My "flex slots" right now have Emrakul as a bullet against Storm, Ad Naus, KCI, etc, as well as another haymaker against UW, and Crucible as a hedge against UW/BGx/random Ponza or Hatebears. I always like having extra cards against UW cause I just hate losing to it but you could really put anything there.
so it's been a while since i've picked up tron but feel like it's where i want to be after the holidays. any updated sideboard guide anywhere that i could read up on current matchups?
Also, speaking of Phoenix (UR), I'm now 8-2 against it this month. I think it is probably a favorable matchup, as you guys were saying. I probably just hit a bad string of variance in my initial run, combined with not knowing exactly how to play against it. This is why I always like having larger samples before I make any definitive conclusions.
@sicsmoo those were solid points, my other question is how do you feel about the 3 o stones and 3 ballista and 3 relics vs the 2-4 ballista-o stone? My current list is running all 3 ofs and it seems to be decent. I like the extra utility with ballista as o stone can be Dead is some matches and ballista is still a threat. Any thoughts?
Also I took your advice on the board
4 claims
4 Thragtusk
1 cage
1 crucible
3 tks
2 spatial contortion
I like the versatility, and jamming the Thragtusk hard against a lot. But I also think with the metagame I wanna be at 4 claims right now but I'm teetering between that or 1 emrakul or the second cage.
Hmm, I don't actually think there's many matchups where O-Stone is a dead card. It's medium or weak in some, yes, but that tends to be in the unfair-leaning matchups where Ballista is also medium or weak, so I don't think you're really gaining anything there. Stone is the more important card for the deck, and I would even venture to say that it's the most important card in the deck, because it's truly a catch-all, and can get us back in the game in a variety of situations where we can't assemble Tron for whatever the reason is, by turn 5. So I would not play less than 4 Stones. Ballista is great as a 2-of but I don't think a 3rd copy has more utility than the other slots (I would be looking at the 3rd Relic slot rather than 4th Stone), until (non-recursive) creature decks run rampant again.
Right...I just don't really see the appeal of a 3rd Ballista unless you're expecting to see a LOT of 1-and-2 toughness creature decks in particular. If you think you will, go nuts, but O-Stone would not be the cut in that scenario. You could go down to 2 Relics, but I would make sure to have sufficient grave hate in the sideboard. If not, you're looking soft against Phoenix, Storm and Dredge.
That makes sense, im gonna go that route then. I'm expecting in no particular order:
Spirits
Ur Phoenix
Tron
Dredge
Uw control
Jund/rock
Grixis shadow
Humans
Ironworks
Storm
Burn
I wanted to have a solid plan against them. Speculatively, I have read the sideboard guide, but do you have anything more in depth as far as some of these matches are concerned?
Cool, good luck. Unfortunately no, I don't have anything more in-depth. I have considered doing full matchup guides - that would be fun and I'd like to do it but it would be a fair amount of work and it would be hard to justify finding the time to do that for free.
On an unrelated note, I just had something really crazy happen in a game against UW. I whiffed on Ancient Stirrings! I tried to go get a screenshot but the MTGO replay tool is seriously broken right now. But I had 31 cards left in my library and only 8 green cards in the deck. I cast Stirrings and saw 5 green cards! I plugged that into the hyper-geometric calculator and the probability of that happening is 0.03%, or 1 out of 3,333 (correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not a math expert, the percentage is correct at least). Luckily I was already in a commanding position and that didn't matter Can't recall that ever happening before.
so i'm trying to figure out my sb and i'm really curious what would be the most optimal sb for an unknown meta. a general idea is cool. i have the basics but i'm not sure if i need surgicals or what not in it.
Most of my testing against UR Phoenix has been after I cut the Surgicals, but I would think they should come in if you have access to them. I don't think Thragtusk is where we wanna be because it doesn't really block anything effectively. Using my list from the guide I'd probably go:
-2 Ballista
-2 Ostone
-1 Ugin
-1 Sphere
+2 Surgical
+3 Nature's Claim
+1 Cage
As for Faeries, it's really gonna depend on how the build looks. There's a UB Control deck with Spellstutter Sprites and Bitterblossoms that top 8d GP Portland that has been getting some 5-0s online, but that's not really Faeries. If you're talking about that one, it's a lot like playing against a regular control deck but they have more permanents and fewer counterspells. I'd probably do something like this:
-1 Sphere
-2 Relic
-1 Karn
+4 Thragtusk
Karn is not as good when they have Bitterblossom and 8 flash creatures. I'd have to play the matchup to know for sure but that's a good starting point.
If you're talking about traditional Faeries with no planeswalkers and Vendilion and Mistbind Cliques main, it's a bit different. I don't want Tusk because they don't have planeswalkers to pressure nor does it block anything, and Karn is a bit worse because they have even more flash creatures. I assume they have Damping Sphere but honestly traditional Faeries is a pretty fringe deck and I couldn't find any recent lists so. I would probably SB as such:
so i'm trying to figure out my sb and i'm really curious what would be the most optimal sb for an unknown meta. a general idea is cool. i have the basics but i'm not sure if i need surgicals or what not in it.
I look at sideboards in the current meta like this:
In my opinion those 12 slots are basically set in stone and should be your starting point for any unknown meta. Those 12 slots cover you well enough against the vast majority of the field. If you have a hunch or a read on the meta or tournament you're entering, you can use the remaining 3 slots to bolster the matchups you think might be popular. If it's a truly unknown meta, then just use the slots for the matchups you want to beat the most. Going up to 3 TKS is always a respectable play as insurance against unfair decks if you happen to run into one. I'm a huge fan of the full 4 Thragtusk - it's so good in so many matchups, and if you want 3 in a matchup, you almost always want 4, as opposed to Nature's Claim for example, where you often want 3 but rarely want 4. I have a Crucible and an Emrakul in my other 2 flex slots, to hedge against UW/BGx/Ponza/Hatebears, and UW/Ad Naus/KCI/Storm/etc, respectively.
went 3-1 with Owen's list that splashes w for the graveyard heavy meta of dredge and phoenix. Going to try and run the same list next Thursday. Timely and Thrag shores up the weakness to Burn game 1 but I haven't come across that deck in months.
Modern - Pyro Prison
Modern - GW Tron
Modern - Mono G Tron
Modern - RWg Burn
Commander - Yisan, The Wanderer Bard cEDH build
Commander - Edric, Spymaster of Trest - Budget/Casual list - complete
Commander - Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis - $35 Budget upgrade
Commander - Edgar Markov - $150 upgrade
Ironworks, Colorless Eldrazi, Eldrazi Taxes, Hatebears, Goblins, BTL Scapeshift, Grishoalbrand, Grixis Control and Mono Red Frenzy each had 1.03% or 3 MP.
Statistically though, I ended the month with 66.2% winrate which was my best ever, and also amassed 10 trophies.
Metagame-wise, Arclight is still at the top of the pack with a solid though certainly not overwhelming 7.6%.
Jeskai Control was oddly popular as I saw it 9 times, but I'm fine with this as it's a great matchup and I got the perfect 9-0 record.
Burn and the mirror match still top 5 in representation.
Saw Spirits more than any other month, it having firmly supplanted Humans as the aggro-disruptive deck of choice in the current meta.
Ponza surprisingly in the top 10. I did play against the same opponent 3 times so for the purposes of analyzing the metagame, using 9 MP rather than 11 makes a little more sense. But even 9 (3.1%) is quite a lot. I suspect this is due to the nature of the Friendly league. I also went 7-4 on the month. It's not that bad of a matchup! Annoying as hell, yes, but very winnable. I'd much rather play against Ponza than Infect or Valakut.
Grixis Shadow rounds out the top 10 but again, I played against the same opponent 3 times (all within 1 hour, in fact), so adjusting for that fact it hits 2.41%, which is pretty much on par. 8-1 record here.
The same thing happened again with an opponent on Ad Nauseam - played against them 3 separate times. This happens on MTGO somewhat often - playing against the same opponent, but I'm not sure if I've ever seen the same opponent 3 times in 3 separate matchups all in one month before. Bit of an irksome aspect of the pairing system, for sure.
I played this list basically the entire month and it felt pretty much perfect. I don't feel the need to change anything going forward. By the end of the month the Horizon Canopy caught up with me a bit and did lose me a few games, but it did help me quite a bit as well. It feels like a wash in terms of which configuration is better - 4 Forest/1 Canopy vs 5 Forest.
Good Stuff Sicsmoo. I have gone back and forth between friendlies and competitive leagues, and my best guess is that there are fewer players at higher MMR (1700+) playing in friendlies, so you get matched up against the same people more often. This is amplified when you play at the odd hours I do, well after midnight.
I did some competitives over the past couple of days, and cashed in all 4 leagues with these records: 3-2, 3-2, 4-1, then 4-1. This was after a couple of weeks away from mtgo but I was still playing tron in paper during that time. My loss in the first 4-1 was to dredge while going for the trophy. I had a relic in the opening hand game 1 but they were on the play and brought in 3 amalgams, 2 narcomebas, and a bloodghast on turn 2 before I could get a chance to crack the relic. Had I been on the play here I could have won that game. The loss in the second 4-1 was to storm, warping wail countered their turn 3 pieces of the puzzle and then I karn-->ulamog'd them out of the game but in game 3 they had turn 2 electromancer and I had a warping wail rather than spatial in hand for removal. Regardless of that, Wail did some good stuff for me and I'm glad I cut the 1 dismember for the second wail before I ran these leagues. I see so much titanshift in comp. leagues, I haven't run the numbers but I would be surprised if it was below 5%, crazy to see you only played it 4 times in 290 matches. I think I had played it 4 times in a 15 match stretch this month, which is one of the reasons I wanted wails in the list.
League 1:
Round 1: L Jund 1-2
Round 2: W Unidentified 1-0 No clue what happened here, they mulliganed to 6 and I mulliganed to 4 (mine, tower, chromatic, ulamog) and then they conceded before we started game 1.)
Round 3: L Titanshift 1-2
Round 4: W Martyr Proc 2-0
Round 5: W Budget Affinity 2-1
League 2:
Round 1: L Titanshift 1-2 (same guy that beat be last round)
Round 2: W UW control
Round 3: W Titanshift 2-1 (karn on turn 3 on the play game 3 won it, wail sealed game two.)
Round 4: W G Tron 2-0 (I actually won with a T3 wurmcoil on the play against a t3 karn in game one, never seen it before it was wild. The reason it worked was they removed my tower with Karn but I had a second tower in my hand and played a second wurmcoil, killing karn with the first. They could not answer two wurms before they died, by the time they played their own wurm they were at 3 life and dead thru attacks. Game two they mulled to 3 and then conceded.)
Round 5: L Humans 1-2
League 3:
Round 1: W Burn 2-1
Round 2: W Humans 2-1 (same player as previous league, REVENGE!)
Round 3: W UW Control 2-1 (same player as previous league)
Round 4: W Abzan 2-1
Round 5: L Dredge 0-2 (this was the match talked about above)
League 4:
Round 1: W KCI 2-1 (they punted game 1 while comboing off and allowed me to steal it with ostones into ulamogs. never concede early people, they can fizzle or punt!)
Round 2: L Storm 1-2
Round 3: W Bant Spirits 2-1
Round 4: W Mono Red Prison 2-0
Round 5: W Burn 2-1 (got lucky here game 1; they had guide and switfy on the field and me at 7 life, they draw eidleon into nacatl as I play wurmcoil into wurmcoil into ulamog and seal it.)
Yeah, that's unfortunate that you've been seeing so much Valakut. Probably just an anomaly. It's been averaging about 2% of the meta for me this year so I tend to not worry about it too much. If I see it, okay, I just try to mull for Karn/TKS. Interestingly enough it was my last matchup of the year, and I got to wreck my opponent with Emrakul in game 3, it was fun
I actually threw some stats together for an easy way to look at the metagame trends over the year:
I wasn't playing much Jan-March so that's why it starts at April. There's some interesting stuff here. Burn has the longest current streak of 4% or higher metagame share at 7 months (5%+ in 6 of 7), with UW Control just behind at 6 months. Humans did that for 7 months from April-Oct, but has fallen from grace since. No other deck had a streak that long. November has some weird looking numbers but that's because the sample was so small.
Wow, I just unlocked another insane achievement - winning a game on a mull to 2, with my opponent on 7! On the draw, opponent on UW Spirits. My hand was Mine, Power Plant. Scryed Map to the top. Turn 1 drew Map, Turn 2 drew Sanctum, Turn 3 drew and played Wurmcoil Engine, no counter or Path from opponent. Turn 4 drew Spatial Contortion, no reason to cast cause I'm winning the race easily, bash with Wurmcoil. Turn 5 draw O-Stone, no reason to cast into opp repping Queller, bash with Wurmcoil again. Turn 6 draw a second Wurmcoil and cast, opp scoops, gg! Don't be afraid to mull bad hands folks
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Also, speaking of Phoenix (UR), I'm now 8-2 against it this month. I think it is probably a favorable matchup, as you guys were saying. I probably just hit a bad string of variance in my initial run, combined with not knowing exactly how to play against it. This is why I always like having larger samples before I make any definitive conclusions.
Also I took your advice on the board
4 claims
4 Thragtusk
1 cage
1 crucible
3 tks
2 spatial contortion
I like the versatility, and jamming the Thragtusk hard against a lot. But I also think with the metagame I wanna be at 4 claims right now but I'm teetering between that or 1 emrakul or the second cage.
Spirits
Ur Phoenix
Tron
Dredge
Uw control
Jund/rock
Grixis shadow
Humans
Ironworks
Storm
Burn
I wanted to have a solid plan against them. Speculatively, I have read the sideboard guide, but do you have anything more in depth as far as some of these matches are concerned?
On an unrelated note, I just had something really crazy happen in a game against UW. I whiffed on Ancient Stirrings! I tried to go get a screenshot but the MTGO replay tool is seriously broken right now. But I had 31 cards left in my library and only 8 green cards in the deck. I cast Stirrings and saw 5 green cards! I plugged that into the hyper-geometric calculator and the probability of that happening is 0.03%, or 1 out of 3,333 (correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not a math expert, the percentage is correct at least). Luckily I was already in a commanding position and that didn't matter
So what is the conclussion regarding the Izzet Phoenix maychup? Which cards would go in? Surgical? Thragtusk?
Regarding Faeries, what would be the correct sideboard? Thank you very much.
Most of my testing against UR Phoenix has been after I cut the Surgicals, but I would think they should come in if you have access to them. I don't think Thragtusk is where we wanna be because it doesn't really block anything effectively. Using my list from the guide I'd probably go:
-2 Ballista
-2 Ostone
-1 Ugin
-1 Sphere
+2 Surgical
+3 Nature's Claim
+1 Cage
As for Faeries, it's really gonna depend on how the build looks. There's a UB Control deck with Spellstutter Sprites and Bitterblossoms that top 8d GP Portland that has been getting some 5-0s online, but that's not really Faeries. If you're talking about that one, it's a lot like playing against a regular control deck but they have more permanents and fewer counterspells. I'd probably do something like this:
-1 Sphere
-2 Relic
-1 Karn
+4 Thragtusk
Karn is not as good when they have Bitterblossom and 8 flash creatures. I'd have to play the matchup to know for sure but that's a good starting point.
If you're talking about traditional Faeries with no planeswalkers and Vendilion and Mistbind Cliques main, it's a bit different. I don't want Tusk because they don't have planeswalkers to pressure nor does it block anything, and Karn is a bit worse because they have even more flash creatures. I assume they have Damping Sphere but honestly traditional Faeries is a pretty fringe deck and I couldn't find any recent lists so. I would probably SB as such:
-2 Karn
-1 Relic
+3 Nature's Claim
3 Thragtusk
2 Thought-Knot Seer
3 Nature's Claim
2 Spatial Contortion
2 Cage and/or Surgical
In my opinion those 12 slots are basically set in stone and should be your starting point for any unknown meta. Those 12 slots cover you well enough against the vast majority of the field. If you have a hunch or a read on the meta or tournament you're entering, you can use the remaining 3 slots to bolster the matchups you think might be popular. If it's a truly unknown meta, then just use the slots for the matchups you want to beat the most. Going up to 3 TKS is always a respectable play as insurance against unfair decks if you happen to run into one. I'm a huge fan of the full 4 Thragtusk - it's so good in so many matchups, and if you want 3 in a matchup, you almost always want 4, as opposed to Nature's Claim for example, where you often want 3 but rarely want 4. I have a Crucible and an Emrakul in my other 2 flex slots, to hedge against UW/BGx/Ponza/Hatebears, and UW/Ad Naus/KCI/Storm/etc, respectively.
2 Walking Ballista
4 Wurmcoil Engine
2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
4 Karn Liberated
2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
Lands (19)
3 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
2 Horizon Canopy
1 Sanctum of Ugin
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Expedition Map
4 Oblivion Stone
3 Relic of Progenitus
4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Sylvan Scrying
2 Thought-Knot Seer
2 Thragtusk
3 Rest in Peace
3 Nature's Claim
2 Spatial Contortion
3 Timely Reinforcements
Modern - GW Tron
Modern - Mono G Tron
Modern - RWg Burn
Commander - Yisan, The Wanderer Bard cEDH build
Commander - Edric, Spymaster of Trest - Budget/Casual list - complete
Commander - Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis - $35 Budget upgrade
Commander - Edgar Markov - $150 upgrade
Arclight Phoenix decks: 7.59% (22 MP) (UR 4.83%/14 MP, Mono R 1.72%/5 MP, Hollow Phoenix 1.03%/3 MP)
UWx Control: 7.59% (22 MP) (UW 4.48%/13 MP, Jeskai 3.10%/9 MP)
Burn: 6.21% (18 MP)
Spirits: 5.86% (17 MP)
Gx Tron: 5.86% (17 MP)
Dredge: 4.48% (13 MP)
BGx: 4.48% (13 MP) (Jund 2.41%, BG 1.38%, Abzan 0.69%)
Ponza: 3.79% (11 MP)
Hollow One: 3.45% (10 MP)
Grixis Shadow: 3.1% (9 MP)
Ad Nauseam: 2.76% (8 MP)
Counters Company: 2.76% (8 MP)
Storm: 2.76% (8 MP)
Blue Moon: 2.07% (6 MP)
Boggles: 1.72% (5 MP)
Humans: 1.38% (4 MP)
Titan Shift: 1.38% (4 MP)
Elves: 1.38% (4 MP)
Mardu Pyro: 1.38% (4 MP)
Ironworks, Colorless Eldrazi, Eldrazi Taxes, Hatebears, Goblins, BTL Scapeshift, Grishoalbrand, Grixis Control and Mono Red Frenzy each had 1.03% or 3 MP.
As a point of interest, this month I decided to play exclusively in the Friendly Leagues to see just how much easier it is/how my winrate would change, etc. I wrote about it at length here: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/801804-the-state-of-modern-thread-b-r-26-11-2018?comment=1301
Statistically though, I ended the month with 66.2% winrate which was my best ever, and also amassed 10 trophies.
Metagame-wise, Arclight is still at the top of the pack with a solid though certainly not overwhelming 7.6%.
Jeskai Control was oddly popular as I saw it 9 times, but I'm fine with this as it's a great matchup and I got the perfect 9-0 record.
Burn and the mirror match still top 5 in representation.
Saw Spirits more than any other month, it having firmly supplanted Humans as the aggro-disruptive deck of choice in the current meta.
Ponza surprisingly in the top 10. I did play against the same opponent 3 times so for the purposes of analyzing the metagame, using 9 MP rather than 11 makes a little more sense. But even 9 (3.1%) is quite a lot. I suspect this is due to the nature of the Friendly league. I also went 7-4 on the month. It's not that bad of a matchup! Annoying as hell, yes, but very winnable. I'd much rather play against Ponza than Infect or Valakut.
Grixis Shadow rounds out the top 10 but again, I played against the same opponent 3 times (all within 1 hour, in fact), so adjusting for that fact it hits 2.41%, which is pretty much on par. 8-1 record here.
The same thing happened again with an opponent on Ad Nauseam - played against them 3 separate times. This happens on MTGO somewhat often - playing against the same opponent, but I'm not sure if I've ever seen the same opponent 3 times in 3 separate matchups all in one month before. Bit of an irksome aspect of the pairing system, for sure.
I played this list basically the entire month and it felt pretty much perfect. I don't feel the need to change anything going forward. By the end of the month the Horizon Canopy caught up with me a bit and did lose me a few games, but it did help me quite a bit as well. It feels like a wash in terms of which configuration is better - 4 Forest/1 Canopy vs 5 Forest.
Guess that's about it.
I did some competitives over the past couple of days, and cashed in all 4 leagues with these records: 3-2, 3-2, 4-1, then 4-1. This was after a couple of weeks away from mtgo but I was still playing tron in paper during that time. My loss in the first 4-1 was to dredge while going for the trophy. I had a relic in the opening hand game 1 but they were on the play and brought in 3 amalgams, 2 narcomebas, and a bloodghast on turn 2 before I could get a chance to crack the relic. Had I been on the play here I could have won that game. The loss in the second 4-1 was to storm, warping wail countered their turn 3 pieces of the puzzle and then I karn-->ulamog'd them out of the game but in game 3 they had turn 2 electromancer and I had a warping wail rather than spatial in hand for removal. Regardless of that, Wail did some good stuff for me and I'm glad I cut the 1 dismember for the second wail before I ran these leagues. I see so much titanshift in comp. leagues, I haven't run the numbers but I would be surprised if it was below 5%, crazy to see you only played it 4 times in 290 matches. I think I had played it 4 times in a 15 match stretch this month, which is one of the reasons I wanted wails in the list.
League 1:
Round 1: L Jund 1-2
Round 2: W Unidentified 1-0 No clue what happened here, they mulliganed to 6 and I mulliganed to 4 (mine, tower, chromatic, ulamog) and then they conceded before we started game 1.)
Round 3: L Titanshift 1-2
Round 4: W Martyr Proc 2-0
Round 5: W Budget Affinity 2-1
League 2:
Round 1: L Titanshift 1-2 (same guy that beat be last round)
Round 2: W UW control
Round 3: W Titanshift 2-1 (karn on turn 3 on the play game 3 won it, wail sealed game two.)
Round 4: W G Tron 2-0 (I actually won with a T3 wurmcoil on the play against a t3 karn in game one, never seen it before it was wild. The reason it worked was they removed my tower with Karn but I had a second tower in my hand and played a second wurmcoil, killing karn with the first. They could not answer two wurms before they died, by the time they played their own wurm they were at 3 life and dead thru attacks. Game two they mulled to 3 and then conceded.)
Round 5: L Humans 1-2
League 3:
Round 1: W Burn 2-1
Round 2: W Humans 2-1 (same player as previous league, REVENGE!)
Round 3: W UW Control 2-1 (same player as previous league)
Round 4: W Abzan 2-1
Round 5: L Dredge 0-2 (this was the match talked about above)
League 4:
Round 1: W KCI 2-1 (they punted game 1 while comboing off and allowed me to steal it with ostones into ulamogs. never concede early people, they can fizzle or punt!)
Round 2: L Storm 1-2
Round 3: W Bant Spirits 2-1
Round 4: W Mono Red Prison 2-0
Round 5: W Burn 2-1 (got lucky here game 1; they had guide and switfy on the field and me at 7 life, they draw eidleon into nacatl as I play wurmcoil into wurmcoil into ulamog and seal it.)
WG G/W Tron GW
BG G/B Tron GB
GG Mono G Tron GG
RG G/R Tron GR
I actually threw some stats together for an easy way to look at the metagame trends over the year:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cvC5iYHB6zdSMJlAZ6EjckZPQoFaMgPQmvGvlq8xyrc/edit?usp=sharing
I wasn't playing much Jan-March so that's why it starts at April. There's some interesting stuff here. Burn has the longest current streak of 4% or higher metagame share at 7 months (5%+ in 6 of 7), with UW Control just behind at 6 months. Humans did that for 7 months from April-Oct, but has fallen from grace since. No other deck had a streak that long. November has some weird looking numbers but that's because the sample was so small.