Alright, I added those 2 to the guide. Not sure how much those write-ups will help you as those are both decks that we are just not well-equipped to beat. To help against 8-Whack within the framework of Mono G (if you don't want to add a color), you could consider maxing out on Wurmcoils and Ballistas. Also Tarmogoyf is a pretty great card against Mill, and reasonable against 8-Whack, so you could consider playing that version.
In the UB Mill section of the guide, you mention that Contortion is a good SB card against them, but Wail isn't; since Wail hits everything that Contortion hits vs Mill (and Glimpses), isn't it at its worst slightly better than Contortion?
Woo, back to playing Tron after spending some time testing standard. I fell like as of right now, 4 Claims is a bit much. We can go back to 3 Claims, upping the relic count to a minimum of 3. I assume my league tonight will feature anti dredge tech, and or combo decks. Are we feeling a little better about TKS now or is it still meh?
Jumping into a league tonight! Also got 3 goyfs in paper to back up my SB plans. WOO! Played a standard Win A Box and it basically translated into a 3rd goyf. Anyhow, Sicsmoo TY again for this new gem of a SB guide.
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Standard Arena: Eh? Gruul or Die
Modern: Decks I'm playing right now: G Mono Green Tron (34-10-3 paper record, only SCG/Regionals/PPTQ record) C Eldrazi Tron (9-5) UG Infect RW Burn
TBH TKS does still feel a bit underwhelming to me in this meta, but it's never a bad call to have at least a couple copies handy for the unfair matchups.
I've been having a lot of trouble with these Arclight Phoenix decks, both the mono-red and UR versions. Graveyard hate is okay but generally not enough on its own because they still have a lot of burn + Swiftspear or Thing in the Ice, or even Hollow One/Flameblade. That's the other issue - the lists are still very much evolving so it makes it tough to plan for. They have Alpine/Blood Moon post-board, and can fly over a Thragtusk or Wurmcoil or Abrade it. Feels like a tough one for sure.
This GW list that 5-0'd recently (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1417016#online) is a reasonable response to these types of decks, the Rest in Peace and Timely Reinforcements both being good cards in the matchup. You also get to be better against Burn and even better against Dredge, not that I think that was really necessary.
The main issue I see is that this configuration is quite a bit worse against UW, with only 3 Forest to search for, and only 4 midrange threats to bring in post-board, in addition to the 4th Wurmcoil which is such a lackluster card in the matchup, at the expense of the World Breaker which is fantastic. The list has similar issues against BGx, with only 2 Thragtusk to board in, although the 4th Wurmcoil helps here. But of course, you can't be great against everything. If these Phoenix decks remain popular GW might be a good choice.
TBH TKS does still feel a bit underwhelming to me in this meta, but it's never a bad call to have at least a couple copies handy for the unfair matchups.
I've been having a lot of trouble with these Arclight Phoenix decks, both the mono-red and UR versions. Graveyard hate is okay but generally not enough on its own because they still have a lot of burn + Swiftspear or Thing in the Ice, or even Hollow One/Flameblade. That's the other issue - the lists are still very much evolving so it makes it tough to plan for. They have Alpine/Blood Moon post-board, and can fly over a Thragtusk or Wurmcoil or Abrade it. Feels like a tough one for sure.
This GW list that 5-0'd recently (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1417016#online) is a reasonable response to these types of decks, the Rest in Peace and Timely Reinforcements both being good cards in the matchup. You also get to be better against Burn and even better against Dredge, not that I think that was really necessary.
The main issue I see is that this configuration is quite a bit worse against UW, with only 3 Forest to search for, and only 4 midrange threats to bring in post-board, in addition to the 4th Wurmcoil which is such a lackluster card in the matchup, at the expense of the World Breaker which is fantastic. The list has similar issues against BGx, with only 2 Thragtusk to board in, although the 4th Wurmcoil helps here. But of course, you can't be great against everything. If these Phoenix decks remain popular GW might be a good choice.
I remember seeing this list a little while back. What do you think about splashing the SB cards off the back of only 2 Canopy? You definitely gain a lot of points against Burn w/Timely, but don't you risk losing those points back G1 off of the life loss from the Canopies? Splashing SB cards off of only 2 colored sources also seems a little greedy, but they did manage to 5-0 with it, so I could just be completely off-kilter. I'll have to test it sometime.
You raise good points Slivortal, and they help illustrate why splashing any color in the age of Field of Ruin is rarely actually worth it, outside of very specific metagames.
Gx Tron had 14 copies in day two of the Charlotte SCG Open, but only two in the top 32, and none in the top 8. Oof.
Not a surprise given that Top 32 - combo, infect and burn is not a good setup for us.
But the meta is still adjusting to the resurgence of Dredge, so we'll likely be seeing a different scenario next weekend on GP Atlanta. Hopefully something more favorable to us.
If the ArcLight Phoenix deck is beginning to become an issue (along with all the other recursive graveyard decks out there), is Perilous Vault a possible answer? It doesn't work well with Wurmcoil and Thragtusk on the board but it quite literally eliminates those recursive threats from the game. Just need to make sure you can back up the vault with another threat.
Perilous Vault works as fine with Thragtusk as Oblivion Stone, since Tusk's beast token triggers on leaving the battlefield (as opposed to dying, like Wurmcoil). Vault doesn't work well with Ulamog, World Breaker, Wurmcoil, and Chromatic Star (though Star should never really be an issue if you are playing properly). Ugin already covers the exile base well enough while not tripping up any of the aforementioned cards that Vault would.
I'm starting to think Warping Wail is looking a little better for sideboards, as more sorceries and valid exile targets are becoming relevant.
If the ArcLight Phoenix deck is beginning to become an issue (along with all the other recursive graveyard decks out there), is Perilous Vault a possible answer? It doesn't work well with Wurmcoil and Thragtusk on the board but it quite literally eliminates those recursive threats from the game. Just need to make sure you can back up the vault with another threat.
I'd rather run more grave hate if Arclight becomes a significant problem.
You guys are highlighting well exactly what makes the Arclight deck so hard to deal with - it fights from multiple angles. Sweepers are very medium against them, even ones that exile, because they play relatively few creatures and the ones they do either generate a lot of value right away or deal damage in bursts (Swiftspear, Steam-Kin, Thing in the Ice, Bedlam Reveler). For the Phoenix itself, it's often enough for them to basically treat it as a free 3 damage, because they have so much other pressure and 8 Lightning Bolts to burn you out. They don't really care if you kill it after it hits you. The recursion isn't a key factor against us, it's just gravy, so graveyard hate is not that great. It's a lot like the Hollow One matchup, but they have less creatures and more burn. Burn is just not something we can interact with well.
As for Perilous Vault, I actually think it's kind of interesting. I wouldn't worry about exiling our own cards because most of the time we want to be sweeping on an empty board anyway. There's no doubt that exiling rather than destroying has value in quite a few spots right now - the graveyard decks being the obvious ones, but it's also pretty awesome against Welding Jar. This is a nice card against Hardened Scales. I kinda wish I had seen this when the deck was really popular Also helps vary your sweepers against prison decks that are trying to lock you out with Needle/Spyglass. The main issue I see with the card is that it costs 9 rather than 8. It makes it more difficult to crack on turn 4 and less likely we'll be able to Stirrings into it and use it on a key turn. Still, if we have it in hand on turn 3 when we have Tron, then turn 4 works.
Time for the October metagame report. MP is matches played. Sample is 246 matches played in the MTGO leagues, all but 10 of which were played with Tron.
Dredge was the story of the month and saw a surge in popularity due to Creeping Chill. It was around 10% metagame share for most of the month but kinda disappeared over the past week as the majority became aware of its presence and started packing more hate so it fell to 8.5% for the whole month.
GBx was tied for first in meta share with Dredge, having increased in popularity due to Assassin's Trophy.
Burn cooled off a bit from its impressive 10% last month, but still sitting in 3rd place with a strong representation at almost 7%. UW Control holding strong at 6.5%, now the 4th month in a row it's been in the top 5.
Arguably the biggest surprise is how far Humans dropped, achieving only 4% meta share. I've never seen it below 6% since I started keeping complete data in April. Spirits is also down to only 2.44%. This is why I've been happy with just 2 Ballista and 2 Contortion in the side. These matchups just haven't been around much.
The Arclight Phoenix decks hit the scene for the first time this month, with a 3.66% meta share. This doesn't show the whole picture though as the decks didn't start seeing play until mid-month; I played my first match against one on Oct 11. So if they maintain a similar level of popularity though November, which I think is a reasonable expectation, we could see a meta share of 6-8% next month.
As for my results with Tron, it was actually my worst month since I started keeping stats. Kind of ironic because I actually felt the deck was better positioned than it had been in some time going into this month, but that turned out to not matter much. Almost every day I would lose at least one match simply because I had unplayable hands and mulliganed into oblivion. It was tough. But that's part of the game. Sometimes the Magic gods are just not favoring you. Also being blindsided by the Phoenix decks and going 1-7 there didn't help either.
I've had an interesting case study on variance developing in my stats. If you've been reading the past couple months you'll know the crazy streak I've been on against Humans. It continued this month, and I now have a 3-month record of 33-4 in the matchup, for 89%. An insane record. But obviously, this is not sustainable. I recognize that while the matchup is good, I've also been getting super lucky at times, ripping the exact tron piece or sweeper I need way more often than I should be.
On the flipside, there's my results against Burn. You may have remembered me lamenting my poor record against Burn last month. Well, it continued this month, and my 2-month record in the matchup is 13-24, for 35%. Now, this is not a great matchup, but it's not that bad either. I recognize that I've also been getting really unlucky in this matchup recently, with my opponents just having the nuts more than average, and with more of my mulligans to oblivion/really poor hands happening here.
This really interesting to me because it seems like those are some pretty solid sample sizes (serendipitously both are 37) to be able to draw reasonable conclusions about the matchups from, but I know for a fact that variance is playing a huge role in them. When I first started doing this I thought that 30 matches was a reasonable starting point to assess matchups from, and I still think it can be, but it just goes to show that the numbers don't always tell the whole story, particularly when they are smaller. The bigger the sample, the less likely that variance plays a role.
Do you have die roll percentages for burn and humans with that data? I don't keep die roll data myself as it's not something I have control of, but those two matchups I feel like the play game 1 is really important. It would be interesting if your burn match history had a high percentage of die roll losses. Regardless, the burn matchup has a lot of ways we can get blown out before we land a meaningful threat, and post-board since we bring in 10-12 cards the deck changes quite a bit and I've had some experience with great cards in my opening hand but the hand is still unplayable. Like double natures claim with no green source or chromatic kind of stuff.
Nah, I don't keep track of play/draw. It would be interesting but that's a little more effort than I wanna put into it.
And yeah I agree in the Burn matchup we can have some really awkward hands even if we have multiple cards that are good in a vaccuum. The biggest bottleneck is the green mana - our deck becomes super hungry for the color after board, especially when you consider one of our strong plays is destroying one of those green sources via Nature's Claim. This is why I think Tarmogoyf is actually not as good against Burn as it seems. Not only does it eat a green source but it interferes with our main goal of setting up Tron because it's really only good on turn 2. It's possible it's correct to cut some number of Ancient Stirrings if you're playing that build, to ease the mana issues and due to the fact that we cant Stir for a lot of the good cards post-board anyway. But I haven't tested this. Random Goyf tangent aside...
I think one of the advantages we have is that they just become a slower deck post-board because they bring in more reactive cards like Path, Revelry/Smash to Smithereens and the odd Deflecting Palm. The artifact destruction and Path end up rotting in their hand a lot, especially if you're playing around them. Claiming your own thing in response to them targeting it feels real good. Plus those types of cards are pretty bad against Thragtusk, and it's actually pretty common for Burn to only be playing 3 Skullcrack nowadays, which helps us as well.
Seems like Owen's GW Tron list lays the smack down on Dredge and GY based decks. I know there was previous discussion on whether it was time to explore the GW build. RIP, Relics, Timely's, Cage's are all confirmed to be in Owern's SB. That is some massive hate.
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Standard Arena: Eh? Gruul or Die
Modern: Decks I'm playing right now: G Mono Green Tron (34-10-3 paper record, only SCG/Regionals/PPTQ record) C Eldrazi Tron (9-5) UG Infect RW Burn
Seems like Owen's GW Tron list lays the smack down on Dredge and GY based decks. I know there was previous discussion on whether it was time to explore the GW build. RIP, Relics, Timely's, Cage's are all confirmed to be in Owern's SB. That is some massive hate.
I definitely like the idea of 3xRiP in the board right now. The card helps against hollow one, dredgevine, and KCI in addition to dredge. Its a very powerful card against all of these decks because it's an enchantment rather than an artifact, and we need help in all of these matchups postboard. Its much more of a hoser than relic, cage, and surgical right now. The latter cards are certainly good, but not equally applicable to the different GY decks like RiP is. It also might be playable against arclight phoenix/bedlam reveler build as well. I love me some horizon canopy in tron, I'll be trying this build out. Timely is a pretty great grindy card against midrange decks that are heavily attacking our mana, and also seems good against humans which heavily disrupts our tron assembly or board wipes.
Does anyone have any sideboard insight into Esper Control? I beat them using the Jeskai sideboard guide but it was very close and I was kind of just winging it and holding back until they tapped out. Esper charm discard 2 is really punishing for us when trying to sandbag through a Stony Silence when you can't find any Nature's Claim.
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Modern - Pyro Prison
Modern - GW Tron
Modern - Mono G Tron
Modern - RWg Burn
Commander - Yisan, The Wanderer Bard cEDH build
Commander - Edric, Spymaster of Trest - Budget/Casual list - complete
Commander - Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis - $35 Budget upgrade
Commander - Edgar Markov - $150 upgrade
Does anyone have any sideboard insight into Esper Control? I beat them using the Jeskai sideboard guide but it was very close and I was kind of just winging it and holding back until they tapped out. Esper charm discard 2 is really punishing for us when trying to sandbag through a Stony Silence when you can't find any Nature's Claim.
The problem with this is that Esper Control is not really a deck in the meta right now so if you run into it, your opponent could be playing weird cards. There's no stock lists to look at and prepare accordingly. That said, if it's built like a typical control deck, they can't really go too off the rails and I think treating it like UW or Jeskai is a good plan. You can be aware of discard/Esper Charm and play around it if possible but I don't really think that changes our gameplan. Maybe they have Unmoored Ego? Still doesn't change our plan as we're siding into midrange threats anyway. It would likely be an easier matchup than UW or Jeskai because they'll have less room for Fields and they have no Snap/Bolt plan either.
So Yoshihiki Ikawa's top 8 list is pretty wild. Splashing black for 3 Thoughtseizes in the side, just 1 spot removal spell in the 75 (Dismember) along with just 2 Ballista, and 3 Ulamogs. But the real jaw-dropper is TWO Carnage Tyrant in the sideboard. That's a bit of nonsense if you ask me. But I do like the 3rd Ulamog, I actually added the 3rd as well after SCG last weekend, and the Thoughtseizes are nice right now.
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Jumping into a league tonight! Also got 3 goyfs in paper to back up my SB plans. WOO! Played a standard Win A Box and it basically translated into a 3rd goyf. Anyhow, Sicsmoo TY again for this new gem of a SB guide.
Modern: Decks I'm playing right now:
G Mono Green Tron (34-10-3 paper record, only SCG/Regionals/PPTQ record)
C Eldrazi Tron (9-5)
UG Infect
RW Burn
I've been having a lot of trouble with these Arclight Phoenix decks, both the mono-red and UR versions. Graveyard hate is okay but generally not enough on its own because they still have a lot of burn + Swiftspear or Thing in the Ice, or even Hollow One/Flameblade. That's the other issue - the lists are still very much evolving so it makes it tough to plan for. They have Alpine/Blood Moon post-board, and can fly over a Thragtusk or Wurmcoil or Abrade it. Feels like a tough one for sure.
This GW list that 5-0'd recently (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1417016#online) is a reasonable response to these types of decks, the Rest in Peace and Timely Reinforcements both being good cards in the matchup. You also get to be better against Burn and even better against Dredge, not that I think that was really necessary.
The main issue I see is that this configuration is quite a bit worse against UW, with only 3 Forest to search for, and only 4 midrange threats to bring in post-board, in addition to the 4th Wurmcoil which is such a lackluster card in the matchup, at the expense of the World Breaker which is fantastic. The list has similar issues against BGx, with only 2 Thragtusk to board in, although the 4th Wurmcoil helps here. But of course, you can't be great against everything. If these Phoenix decks remain popular GW might be a good choice.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
Legacy: Death&Taxes (almost there)
EDH: Squee, Goblin Nabob / Phelddagrif
Not a surprise given that Top 32 - combo, infect and burn is not a good setup for us.
But the meta is still adjusting to the resurgence of Dredge, so we'll likely be seeing a different scenario next weekend on GP Atlanta. Hopefully something more favorable to us.
I'm starting to think Warping Wail is looking a little better for sideboards, as more sorceries and valid exile targets are becoming relevant.
I'd rather run more grave hate if Arclight becomes a significant problem.
As for Perilous Vault, I actually think it's kind of interesting. I wouldn't worry about exiling our own cards because most of the time we want to be sweeping on an empty board anyway. There's no doubt that exiling rather than destroying has value in quite a few spots right now - the graveyard decks being the obvious ones, but it's also pretty awesome against Welding Jar. This is a nice card against Hardened Scales. I kinda wish I had seen this when the deck was really popular
Dredge: 8.54% (21 MP)
BGx: 8.54% (21 MP) (Jund 3.25%, BG 3.25%, Sultai 1.22%, Abzan 0.81%)
Burn: 6.91% (17 MP)
UW Control: 6.50% (16 MP)
Humans: 4.07% (10 MP)
Storm: 4.07% (10 MP)
Arclight Phoenix decks: 3.66% (9 MP)
Gx Tron: 3.66% (9 MP)
Affinity: 2.85% (7 MP)
Mardu Pyro: 2.85% (7 MP)
Blue Moon: 2.85% (7 MP)
Amulet: 2.85% (7 MP)
Grixis Shadow: 2.44% (6 MP)
Spirits: 2.44% (6 MP)
Lantern: 2.44% (6 MP)
Jeskai Control: 2.44% (6 MP)
Hardened Scales: 2.03% (5 MP)
Elves: 2.03% (5 MP)
Ad Nauseam: 1.63% (4 MP)
Infect: 1.63% (4 MP)
Hollow One: 1.63% (4 MP)
UR Wizards: 1.22% (3 MP)
Eldrazi Taxes: 1.22% (3 MP)
Eldrazi Tron: 1.22% (3 MP)
Grixis Control: 1.22% (3 MP)
Dredge was the story of the month and saw a surge in popularity due to Creeping Chill. It was around 10% metagame share for most of the month but kinda disappeared over the past week as the majority became aware of its presence and started packing more hate so it fell to 8.5% for the whole month.
GBx was tied for first in meta share with Dredge, having increased in popularity due to Assassin's Trophy.
Burn cooled off a bit from its impressive 10% last month, but still sitting in 3rd place with a strong representation at almost 7%. UW Control holding strong at 6.5%, now the 4th month in a row it's been in the top 5.
Arguably the biggest surprise is how far Humans dropped, achieving only 4% meta share. I've never seen it below 6% since I started keeping complete data in April. Spirits is also down to only 2.44%. This is why I've been happy with just 2 Ballista and 2 Contortion in the side. These matchups just haven't been around much.
The Arclight Phoenix decks hit the scene for the first time this month, with a 3.66% meta share. This doesn't show the whole picture though as the decks didn't start seeing play until mid-month; I played my first match against one on Oct 11. So if they maintain a similar level of popularity though November, which I think is a reasonable expectation, we could see a meta share of 6-8% next month.
As for my results with Tron, it was actually my worst month since I started keeping stats. Kind of ironic because I actually felt the deck was better positioned than it had been in some time going into this month, but that turned out to not matter much. Almost every day I would lose at least one match simply because I had unplayable hands and mulliganed into oblivion. It was tough. But that's part of the game. Sometimes the Magic gods are just not favoring you. Also being blindsided by the Phoenix decks and going 1-7 there didn't help either.
I've had an interesting case study on variance developing in my stats. If you've been reading the past couple months you'll know the crazy streak I've been on against Humans. It continued this month, and I now have a 3-month record of 33-4 in the matchup, for 89%. An insane record. But obviously, this is not sustainable. I recognize that while the matchup is good, I've also been getting super lucky at times, ripping the exact tron piece or sweeper I need way more often than I should be.
On the flipside, there's my results against Burn. You may have remembered me lamenting my poor record against Burn last month. Well, it continued this month, and my 2-month record in the matchup is 13-24, for 35%. Now, this is not a great matchup, but it's not that bad either. I recognize that I've also been getting really unlucky in this matchup recently, with my opponents just having the nuts more than average, and with more of my mulligans to oblivion/really poor hands happening here.
This really interesting to me because it seems like those are some pretty solid sample sizes (serendipitously both are 37) to be able to draw reasonable conclusions about the matchups from, but I know for a fact that variance is playing a huge role in them. When I first started doing this I thought that 30 matches was a reasonable starting point to assess matchups from, and I still think it can be, but it just goes to show that the numbers don't always tell the whole story, particularly when they are smaller. The bigger the sample, the less likely that variance plays a role.
WG G/W Tron GW
BG G/B Tron GB
GG Mono G Tron GG
RG G/R Tron GR
And yeah I agree in the Burn matchup we can have some really awkward hands even if we have multiple cards that are good in a vaccuum. The biggest bottleneck is the green mana - our deck becomes super hungry for the color after board, especially when you consider one of our strong plays is destroying one of those green sources via Nature's Claim. This is why I think Tarmogoyf is actually not as good against Burn as it seems. Not only does it eat a green source but it interferes with our main goal of setting up Tron because it's really only good on turn 2. It's possible it's correct to cut some number of Ancient Stirrings if you're playing that build, to ease the mana issues and due to the fact that we cant Stir for a lot of the good cards post-board anyway. But I haven't tested this. Random Goyf tangent aside...
I think one of the advantages we have is that they just become a slower deck post-board because they bring in more reactive cards like Path, Revelry/Smash to Smithereens and the odd Deflecting Palm. The artifact destruction and Path end up rotting in their hand a lot, especially if you're playing around them. Claiming your own thing in response to them targeting it feels real good. Plus those types of cards are pretty bad against Thragtusk, and it's actually pretty common for Burn to only be playing 3 Skullcrack nowadays, which helps us as well.
Modern: Decks I'm playing right now:
G Mono Green Tron (34-10-3 paper record, only SCG/Regionals/PPTQ record)
C Eldrazi Tron (9-5)
UG Infect
RW Burn
I definitely like the idea of 3xRiP in the board right now. The card helps against hollow one, dredgevine, and KCI in addition to dredge. Its a very powerful card against all of these decks because it's an enchantment rather than an artifact, and we need help in all of these matchups postboard. Its much more of a hoser than relic, cage, and surgical right now. The latter cards are certainly good, but not equally applicable to the different GY decks like RiP is. It also might be playable against arclight phoenix/bedlam reveler build as well. I love me some horizon canopy in tron, I'll be trying this build out. Timely is a pretty great grindy card against midrange decks that are heavily attacking our mana, and also seems good against humans which heavily disrupts our tron assembly or board wipes.
WG G/W Tron GW
BG G/B Tron GB
GG Mono G Tron GG
RG G/R Tron GR
Modern - GW Tron
Modern - Mono G Tron
Modern - RWg Burn
Commander - Yisan, The Wanderer Bard cEDH build
Commander - Edric, Spymaster of Trest - Budget/Casual list - complete
Commander - Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis - $35 Budget upgrade
Commander - Edgar Markov - $150 upgrade