That Vexing Devil list didn't end up with 18 points or more, unless I missed it when I was glancing through them.
For the record, the guy was 7-0 when he was on camera and that means he was 4-0 drafting and 3-0 playing modern. Any Burn build can win 3 straight rounds of modern, whether it's playing Devil or not.
He ended up at 31 pts, but he was 6-0 in draft
Therefore in the modern portion he was 4-5-1 (not sure when the draw was, but it wasn't the last round, so I doubt it was intentional)
Doesn't look like anyone could say devil is good in burn based on this pro tour result
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
"What's your plan?" Gideon asked.
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
That Vexing Devil list didn't end up with 18 points or more, unless I missed it when I was glancing through them.
For the record, the guy was 7-0 when he was on camera and that means he was 4-0 drafting and 3-0 playing modern. Any Burn build can win 3 straight rounds of modern, whether it's playing Devil or not.
He ended up at 31 pts, but he was 6-0 in draft
Therefore in the modern portion he was 4-5-1 (not sure when the draw was, but it wasn't the last round, so I doubt it was intentional)
Doesn't look like anyone could say devil is good in burn based on this pro tour result
I must have been looking at Modern-only point totals, which is why that list was nowhere to be found. Solid performance drafting for him, though.
Do you think mutagenic grouth in x1 in the main deck for one copy of helix could be a good choice? It could be good for some explosiveg hands?
I think it would be an awful choice because Burn doesn't play 24 creatures. Burn doesn't struggle with being explosive, and a card that's dead unless you have a creature in play is not worth playing.
After this weekend, I think that hate for Burn is going to be more popular moving forward. Ideas for how to beat the hate? Or just play a different deck for a bit?
If hate rises, you can't skimp on skullcracks or enchantment removal anymore. Firewalker might show up more (which means ways to kill it are relevant) and be worth playing in our sides.
Could someone explain me why some lists play Chained to the Rocks instead of Path to Exile? Is Path's drawback so bad that it's worth to play a sorcery version weak to enchantment and land destruction or am I missing something?
To my knowledge, Mike Flores is the originator of it lately, though people probably have tried it off and on for a while. It's a turn 1 answer to Noble, it's an etb that doesn't require a discard to get rid of reality smasher, it doesn't give a land, and it encourages sourcery speed interaction and this pumps Swiftspear before it attacks instead of encouraging instant speed interaction that pumps Swiftspear at a time when it might not matter.
Thought it was hot garbage a year ago. Thought it was hot garbage last week. Still think it's hot garbage today and will continue to think that even if the winning deck has 4 copies of Vexing Devil in it.
I think that Vexing Devil is worth approximately 2 damage on average, and I'd rather play Shock than something that averages to Shock but has a large standard deviation.
i understand everyone has their own opinion and experience but when i played it, it was always 4 to the dome. i think thats changed with there being bolt, path, and push. not to mention the plethora of other ways to kill it currently so its less likely they just take 4
I think your experience implies you were playing it against a meta that never plays removal, which is extraordinarily atypical, or it's confirmation bias. I've done the math on this against typical amounts of removal from typical decks. The answer is about 2 damage on average for a turn 1 devil, and it goes down from there.
It got played in a pro tour deck that did very well on Day 1. It can't be that much garbage. I have always thought because of it being a punisher card, it did better in less competitive or skilled metagames and worse at higher levels of play, I may have to reevaluate this.
It's a mistake to attribute the success of the deck as a whole to 4 cards. Nothing about this suggests that devil is a good card that should be reevaluated and that everyone else for the last 5 years has been wrong about it. It's still hot garbage and the performance of a single deck doesn't imply that it's not.
At best, this just means that a bunch of people will come to the conclusion that it's fantastic because of a single deck and they'll play it, evaluate it by using confirmation bias, and claim it's the best thing since sliced bread. It'll be Shrine of Burning Rage all over again: hot garbage that people claim isn't hot garbage because "look at that one time it was played and the player won!"
I am not attributing it to only this result, it has been a card in the "maybe" category for burn decks since it was printed and tons of people have played/play it. You can call it garbage all you want but its mediocre at worst. 4 damage for 1 mana is nothing to laugh at. just because the card has a downside doesn't make it unplayable.
if creature based strategies pick up, ill move back to turbofog. too easy to beat affinity amd creature based startegies. i also dont have that bad of a combo nor control mu. my only fear is tron or etron. as far as burn goes, no you dont need to change decks. burn has plenty of ways to deal with the creature mu. and we have the ways the win against lifegain and leyline
I am not attributing it to only this result, it has been a card in the "maybe" category for burn decks since it was printed and tons of people have played/play it. You can call it garbage all you want but its mediocre at worst. 4 damage for 1 mana is nothing to laugh at. just because the card has a downside doesn't make it unplayable.
1 mana, zero damage and time walking yourself is something to laugh at. The card is not good. Also, the pilot went 4-5-1 in modern, which isn't a stand out result. (Edit: though that's not necessarily attributable to Vexing Devil either)
I've literally done the math on Vexing Devil versus likely removal. It's worth about as much damage as Shock, but at least shock is far less likely to be a zero damage time walk. Vexing Devil is garbage, it's unplayable in Modern Burn, but plenty of people read it and say "ooooo 1 mana for 4 damage!" and think it's fantastic. It's not. It's a trap and it's bad.
Thought it was hot garbage a year ago. Thought it was hot garbage last week. Still think it's hot garbage today and will continue to think that even if the winning deck has 4 copies of Vexing Devil in it.
I think that Vexing Devil is worth approximately 2 damage on average, and I'd rather play Shock than something that averages to Shock but has a large standard deviation.
i understand everyone has their own opinion and experience but when i played it, it was always 4 to the dome. i think thats changed with there being bolt, path, and push. not to mention the plethora of other ways to kill it currently so its less likely they just take 4
I think your experience implies you were playing it against a meta that never plays removal, which is extraordinarily atypical, or it's confirmation bias. I've done the math on this against typical amounts of removal from typical decks. The answer is about 2 damage on average for a turn 1 devil, and it goes down from there.
It got played in a pro tour deck that did very well on Day 1. It can't be that much garbage. I have always thought because of it being a punisher card, it did better in less competitive or skilled metagames and worse at higher levels of play, I may have to reevaluate this.
It's a mistake to attribute the success of the deck as a whole to 4 cards. Nothing about this suggests that devil is a good card that should be reevaluated and that everyone else for the last 5 years has been wrong about it. It's still hot garbage and the performance of a single deck doesn't imply that it's not.
At best, this just means that a bunch of people will come to the conclusion that it's fantastic because of a single deck and they'll play it, evaluate it by using confirmation bias, and claim it's the best thing since sliced bread. It'll be Shrine of Burning Rage all over again: hot garbage that people claim isn't hot garbage because "look at that one time it was played and the player won!"
I am not attributing it to only this result, it has been a card in the "maybe" category for burn decks since it was printed and tons of people have played/play it. You can call it garbage all you want but its mediocre at worst. 4 damage for 1 mana is nothing to laugh at. just because the card has a downside doesn't make it unplayable.
And take this from someone who has admittedly said that he has played vexing devil plenty in the past and still tries currently to make it work... It is a very intriguing card that has the possibility of doing 4 damage but there is too many one Mana removal that can handle him in the format. he has gotten significantly worse since his printing. I'm not saying you can't play him and win a few games and he might be able 4 damage here and there but a lot of times You'll Play him and they'll be like okay you can have a 4/3 pass the turn and they will just bolt path or push and now he's done nothing when we could have either done Goblin guide and dealt 2 and gotten information about their deck or had Bolt ready for their face or there possible turn one creature. Back when I played him he was less susceptible two getting killed turn one or two so they would usually take the four from my experience but now the Dex have shifted since the beginning of modern and things are not the way they were. He sadly face is too many obstacles to consistently be the 4 damage that we want him to be. My latest iteration was playing him as a 3 of but has been switched to Lavamancers and A Shard volley. Trust me when I say I try make him work LOL
January 2018 opposing hate analysis
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The January 2018 deck population is 468 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection. Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
1.000 0.100 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
2.000 0.136 0.04701 Humans
2.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.200 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
1.176 0.850 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.050 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.050 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.154 0.02778 WU Control
1.714 0.636 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.231 0.02778 WU Control
2.000 0.125 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
1.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
3.947 0.950 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
4.000 0.067 0.03205 RG Titanshift
3.000 0.011 0.01282 Other
1.500 0.100 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
2.500 0.286 0.01496 BRG
1.000 0.032 0.06624 Affinity
2.000 0.009 0.00855 Other
1.636 0.846 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.714 0.01496 Abzan
1.800 0.625 0.01709 B/R Hollow One
1.500 0.133 0.03205 BG Tron
1.000 0.286 0.01496 BRG
2.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.083 0.02564 Dredge
2.111 0.019 0.02350 Other
1.900 0.938 0.06838 UBR Death's Shadow
3.286 0.933 0.03205 BG Tron
2.000 0.846 0.02778 BGx Midrange
2.400 0.833 0.02564 Dredge
1.571 1.000 0.01496 Abzan
1.333 0.462 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
2.250 1.000 0.00855 Jund
1.667 0.600 0.01068 8-Rack
1.667 0.750 0.00855 WUBRG Death's Shadow
1.333 0.375 0.01709 B/R Hollow One
1.333 0.429 0.01496 BRG
2.000 0.333 0.01282 Living End
1.000 0.286 0.01496 Lantern Control
1.000 0.091 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.100 0.02137 Vizier Company
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
1.692 0.028 0.02778 Other
2.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.333 0.094 0.06838 UBR Death's Shadow
1.500 0.004 0.00641 Other
3.750 1.000 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
1.750 0.800 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
1.333 0.300 0.02137 Vizier Company
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.333 0.00641 Amulet Combo
2.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.004 0.00641 Other
3.533 1.000 0.06410 WUR Control
3.077 1.000 0.02778 WU Control
3.000 1.000 0.01923 UR Control
2.600 1.000 0.01068 URG Control
2.000 1.000 0.00855 Madcap Moon
4.000 0.333 0.01282 Living End
2.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
3.286 0.015 0.01496 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00641 Merfolk
4.000 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
1.000 0.031 0.06838 UBR Death's Shadow
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
1.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.793 0.967 0.06410 WUR Control
1.538 1.000 0.02778 WU Control
1.250 0.750 0.03419 UR Gifts Storm
2.000 1.000 0.01923 UR Control
2.000 1.000 0.01068 URG Control
2.500 1.000 0.00855 Madcap Moon
1.000 0.500 0.01282 Living End
2.000 0.667 0.00641 Merfolk
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.100 0.02137 Vizier Company
1.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.500 0.030 0.03205 Other
1.286 0.538 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.333 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
2.000 0.286 0.01496 BRG
2.000 0.077 0.02778 G Tron
2.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.006 0.00855 Other
1.000 0.083 0.02564 Dredge
1.143 0.583 0.02564 Dredge
2.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
4.000 0.286 0.01496 BRG
4.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
4.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
4.000 1.000 0.01282 RG Tron
3.500 0.333 0.01282 Living End
1.500 0.667 0.00641 Amulet Combo
2.667 0.006 0.00641 Other
2.333 0.600 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
3.000 0.400 0.01068 URG Control
3.000 0.067 0.03205 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.250 0.00855 Jund
1.500 0.004 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.500 0.00855 Jund
1.000 0.571 0.01496 Lantern Control
1.000 0.444 0.01923 UR Control
1.000 0.400 0.01068 URG Control
2.000 0.500 0.00855 Madcap Moon
4.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
2.667 0.006 0.00641 Other
1.000 0.231 0.02778 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.143 0.01496 Abzan
1.000 0.154 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.273 0.846 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.182 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
3.800 0.500 0.02137 Vizier Company
4.000 0.200 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
3.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.400 0.500 0.02137 Vizier Company
2.500 0.500 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
2.250 0.800 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
1.000 0.250 0.00855 Jund
2.000 0.009 0.01496 Other
2.222 0.600 0.06410 Burn
2.000 0.182 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
2.000 0.100 0.02137 Vizier Company
3.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
2.667 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
4.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
2.143 1.000 0.01496 Lantern Control
4.000 0.833 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
3.250 0.667 0.01282 Living End
3.000 0.200 0.03205 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.133 0.03205 BG Tron
1.000 0.667 0.00641 Bogles
3.000 0.077 0.02778 WU Control
2.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
3.000 0.091 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
4.000 0.077 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
3.000 0.333 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
3.500 0.013 0.01709 Other
3.800 1.000 0.06410 Burn
3.167 1.000 0.06410 WUR Control
2.000 0.462 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
3.250 0.009 0.00855 Other
1.000 0.067 0.06410 Burn
1.000 0.067 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.004 0.00855 Other
2.414 0.967 0.06410 WUR Control
1.182 0.846 0.02778 WU Control
3.000 0.006 0.00641 Other
1.600 0.556 0.01923 UR Control
2.000 0.600 0.01068 URG Control
3.000 0.500 0.00855 Madcap Moon
1.300 0.769 0.02778 WU Control
1.667 0.200 0.06410 WUR Control
3.000 0.400 0.01068 URG Control
3.000 0.667 0.00641 WU
1.000 0.333 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
1.750 0.009 0.00855 Other
1.000 0.923 0.02778 WU Control
1.000 0.367 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.004 0.00641 Other
1.045 0.733 0.06410 WUR Control
1.273 0.846 0.02778 WU Control
3.500 0.667 0.00641 Merfolk
2.000 0.222 0.01923 UR Control
2.000 0.200 0.02137 Vizier Company
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
1.000 0.125 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
3.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.200 0.011 0.01282 Other
1.000 0.333 0.01282 Living End
1.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
1.500 0.400 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
2.200 0.667 0.03205 RG Titanshift
1.000 1.000 0.00641 Amulet Combo
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
3.000 1.000 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
1.333 1.000 0.00641 Amulet Combo
1.000 0.833 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
2.000 0.286 0.01496 BRG
1.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
2.500 0.004 0.00427 Other
3.833 1.000 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.400 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 1.000 0.00641 Amulet Combo
3.000 1.000 0.03419 UR Gifts Storm
4.000 1.000 0.01923 UR Control
3.200 1.000 0.01068 URG Control
4.000 1.000 0.00855 Madcap Moon
4.000 0.333 0.01282 Living End
4.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
4.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
2.800 0.011 0.01282 Other
3.455 0.846 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.111 0.900 0.02137 Vizier Company
2.286 1.000 0.01496 Abzan
1.167 0.750 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
2.500 1.000 0.00855 Jund
1.000 0.200 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
2.000 0.200 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
2.000 0.015 0.01709 Other
1.000 0.200 0.02137 Vizier Company
1.000 0.250 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
2.500 0.400 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
2.000 0.067 0.03205 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.200 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
1.000 0.004 0.00641 Other
2.571 0.636 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.200 0.714 0.01496 Abzan
4.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
2.000 0.714 0.01496 Abzan
4.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
2.500 0.667 0.00641 Merfolk
1.500 0.333 0.01282 Living End
2.000 0.009 0.00855 Other
1.643 0.452 0.06624 Affinity
1.500 0.004 0.00427 Other
1.500 0.733 0.06410 WUR Control
1.091 0.846 0.02778 WU Control
2.222 1.000 0.01923 UR Control
2.000 1.000 0.01068 URG Control
2.000 1.000 0.00855 Madcap Moon
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
3.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.000 0.009 0.01068 Other
1.000 0.006 0.00641 Other
1.000 0.006 0.00855 Other
1.000 0.129 0.06624 Affinity
1.000 0.136 0.04701 Humans
1.000 0.009 0.01282 Other
2.969 1.000 0.06838 UBR Death's Shadow
2.500 1.000 0.00855 WUBRG Death's Shadow
2.333 1.000 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
1.000 0.032 0.06624 Affinity
3.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.130 0.719 0.06838 UBR Death's Shadow
1.500 0.129 0.06624 Affinity
1.000 1.000 0.00855 WUBRG Death's Shadow
1.000 0.667 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
2.333 0.006 0.00641 Other
1.000 0.154 0.02778 WU Control
2.000 0.111 0.01923 UR Control
1.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
2.333 1.000 0.00641 Amulet Combo
2.000 0.062 0.03419 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.133 0.03205 RG Titanshift
1.500 0.400 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
1.000 0.200 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
1.000 0.006 0.00855 Other
2.600 1.000 0.03205 BG Tron
2.769 1.000 0.02778 G Tron
2.200 0.833 0.01282 RG Tron
1.333 0.200 0.03205 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.200 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
1.000 0.333 0.00641 Amulet Combo
1.800 0.011 0.01282 Other
1.600 0.769 0.02778 WU Control
1.000 0.067 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
2.000 1.000 0.03205 BG Tron
2.000 1.000 0.02778 G Tron
2.000 1.000 0.01282 RG Tron
1.000 0.100 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
1.800 0.011 0.01068 Other
2.500 0.667 0.00641 Merfolk
2.000 0.100 0.02137 Vizier Company
4.000 0.125 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
2.250 0.017 0.01709 Other
3.833 0.968 0.06624 Affinity
1.778 0.450 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
2.067 0.750 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
1.364 0.733 0.03205 BG Tron
2.000 1.000 0.01282 RG Tron
1.250 0.308 0.02778 G Tron
2.250 0.009 0.00855 Other
2.800 1.000 0.03205 BG Tron
2.769 1.000 0.02778 G Tron
1.000 0.500 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
3.000 1.000 0.01282 RG Tron
2.000 0.011 0.01068 Other
1.000 0.300 0.04274 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.067 0.03205 BG Tron
1.000 0.006 0.00855 Other
Card fractions: This is averaged over the whole meta and is the fraction of decks that play the card in the maindeck/sideboard without taking into account how many copies they play. These give a general idea of what cards to expect from a randomly chosen deck. Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (15.38%), Lightning Helix (14.96%), Spell Snare (12.39%), Wurmcoil Engine (10.47%), Scavenging Ooze (9.83%), Logic Knot (9.19%), Remand (9.19%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Cryptic Command (15.51%), Lightning Helix (12.32%), Remand (12.17%), Scavenging Ooze (10.72%), Spell Snare (10.29%), Stubborn Denial (9.57%), Wurmcoil Engine (9.13%).
Hate cards by meta decks: Go here if you want to see what kind of hate cards specific decks play.
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Meta composition: This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name. Some of these deck names might be fuzzy, so the results are approximate.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
6.84% UBR Death's Shadow
6.62% Affinity
6.41% Burn
6.41% WUR Control
4.70% Humans
4.27% Eldrazi Tron
3.42% UR Gifts Storm
3.21% BG Tron
3.21% RG Titanshift
2.78% WU Control
2.78% BGx Midrange
2.78% G Tron
2.78% Mardu Pyromancer
2.56% Dredge
2.35% Eldrazi and Taxes
2.14% Vizier Company
1.92% UR Control
1.71% Bant Knightfall
1.71% B/R Hollow One
1.50% Abzan
1.50% Lantern Control
1.50% BRG
1.28% RG Tron
1.28% Living End
1.28% Ad Nauseam
1.07% URG Control
1.07% WUG Hatebears
1.07% 8-Rack
1.07% G/R Madcap Moon
0.85% Jund
0.85% WUBRG Death's Shadow
0.85% Madcap Moon
0.64% Bogles
0.64% Merfolk
0.64% WU
0.64% WUB Death's Shadow
0.64% Amulet Combo
0.43% WUBR
0.43% WUBRG
0.43% UBR Control
0.43% Counter Cat
0.43% Mono-Red Prison
0.43% Martyr Proc
0.43% UG Infect
0.43% WURG Knightfall
0.43% W
0.43% WBG Tron
0.43% Kiki Chord
0.43% WRG Tron
0.43% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.43% WR
0.21% WG
0.21% G/R Aggro
0.21% Temur Hollow One
0.21% Soul Sisters
0.21% WUR Delver
0.21% WG Hatebears
0.21% Eldrazi Spirits
0.21% Mono-Green Devotion
0.21% Mardu Pack Rat
0.21% UBRG Scapeshift
0.21% BR
0.21% Elves
0.21% WU Delver
0.21% WURG Copycat
0.21% Titan Breach
0.21% BRG Death's Shadow
0.21% Skred Red
0.21% UBG Infect
0.21% Bant Eldrazi
0.21% URG
0.21% WUBRG Humans Company
0.21% Esper Tokens
0.21% WUG Humans Company
0.21% WUG
0.21% WURG Kiki-Resto
0.21% WB Smallpox
0.21% WUBR Death's Shadow
0.21% UBR Delver
0.21% Mill
0.21% Jeskai Breach
0.21% Sultai Midrange
0.21% Death and Taxes
0.21% Mono U Tron
Enchantments: This is a core dump of all enchantments that see play. No attempt was made to remove irrelevant ones.
4.000 0.500 0.01282 Living End
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.091 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.250 0.129 0.06624 Affinity
3.000 0.083 0.02564 Dredge
1.364 0.846 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
3.000 1.000 0.01923 UR Control
2.600 1.000 0.01068 URG Control
4.000 1.000 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
2.500 1.000 0.00855 Madcap Moon
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.143 0.01496 BRG
3.200 0.011 0.01282 Other
1.692 0.839 0.06624 Affinity
1.900 0.769 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.875 0.01709 B/R Hollow One
2.333 0.857 0.01496 BRG
2.000 0.188 0.03419 UR Gifts Storm
2.000 0.154 0.02778 BGx Midrange
3.000 0.250 0.00855 Jund
1.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
2.000 0.009 0.01282 Other
2.000 0.167 0.01282 RG Tron
2.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
2.000 0.667 0.01282 RG Tron
1.000 0.667 0.00641 Bogles
1.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
2.875 0.267 0.06410 Burn
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.200 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
1.000 0.031 0.06838 UBR Death's Shadow
3.750 1.000 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
1.750 0.800 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
1.333 0.300 0.02137 Vizier Company
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.333 0.00641 Amulet Combo
2.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.004 0.00641 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
1.923 1.000 0.02778 WU Control
1.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.233 0.06410 WUR Control
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.800 0.02137 Vizier Company
1.857 0.875 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
1.000 0.097 0.06624 Affinity
1.000 0.200 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
1.000 0.091 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.077 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.375 0.017 0.02350 Other
3.931 0.967 0.06410 Burn
4.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
3.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
4.000 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
2.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.839 1.000 0.06624 Affinity
3.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.250 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
2.000 0.006 0.00855 Other
2.000 0.250 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.333 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
2.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
2.000 0.333 0.00641 Amulet Combo
4.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
2.000 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
1.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.500 0.00855 Madcap Moon
2.000 0.222 0.01923 UR Control
1.000 0.200 0.01068 URG Control
1.000 0.031 0.06838 UBR Death's Shadow
1.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
2.200 0.333 0.03205 RG Titanshift
2.667 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
4.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
2.143 1.000 0.01496 Lantern Control
4.000 0.833 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
3.250 0.667 0.01282 Living End
3.000 0.200 0.03205 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.133 0.03205 BG Tron
1.000 0.667 0.00641 Bogles
3.000 0.077 0.02778 WU Control
2.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
3.000 0.091 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
4.000 0.077 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
3.000 0.333 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
3.500 0.013 0.01709 Other
2.833 0.500 0.02564 Dredge
3.750 0.800 0.01068 8-Rack
3.750 0.500 0.01709 B/R Hollow One
4.000 0.231 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
3.667 0.500 0.01282 Living End
4.000 0.286 0.01496 BRG
3.667 0.006 0.00641 Other
1.000 0.200 0.01068 8-Rack
4.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.538 0.02778 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
3.667 0.006 0.00855 Other
1.667 0.006 0.00641 Other
2.000 0.091 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.500 0.004 0.00427 Other
1.000 0.100 0.02137 Vizier Company
2.000 0.077 0.02778 BGx Midrange
3.000 0.200 0.01068 8-Rack
3.833 1.000 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.571 0.01496 Lantern Control
1.000 0.077 0.02778 WU Control
2.000 0.667 0.03205 RG Titanshift
4.000 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
1.480 0.806 0.06624 Affinity
2.083 0.923 0.02778 WU Control
2.000 0.818 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.857 0.233 0.06410 Burn
1.500 0.133 0.06410 WUR Control
2.333 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
2.333 0.136 0.04701 Humans
2.500 0.667 0.00641 WU
1.000 0.167 0.01282 Ad Nauseam
2.067 0.032 0.03205 Other
1.500 0.004 0.00427 Other
1.222 0.290 0.06624 Affinity
2.000 0.077 0.02778 WU Control
1.111 0.692 0.02778 WU Control
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.778 0.300 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.154 0.02778 WU Control
2.000 0.200 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
1.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
2.000 0.333 0.00641 Merfolk
1.333 0.200 0.03205 BG Tron
2.667 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
2.000 0.002 0.00427 Other
1.800 0.500 0.06410 WUR Control
1.769 1.000 0.02778 WU Control
1.000 0.333 0.01923 UR Control
1.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
2.000 0.011 0.01068 Other
1.000 0.714 0.01496 Lantern Control
1.333 0.100 0.06410 WUR Control
1.000 0.065 0.06624 Affinity
2.000 0.143 0.01496 BRG
2.000 0.009 0.00855 Other
4.000 1.000 0.01068 8-Rack
3.667 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
1.667 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
1.333 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
3.909 0.846 0.02778 WU Control
4.000 1.000 0.00641 Merfolk
2.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
3.000 0.004 0.00427 Other
3.000 0.033 0.06410 WUR Control
3.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.917 0.923 0.02778 WU Control
1.636 0.367 0.06410 WUR Control
2.727 1.000 0.02350 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.286 1.000 0.01496 Abzan
2.000 0.133 0.06410 Burn
2.000 0.500 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
2.667 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
2.000 1.000 0.00641 WUB Death's Shadow
2.000 0.400 0.01068 WUG Hatebears
1.500 0.154 0.02778 Mardu Pyromancer
1.500 0.091 0.04701 Humans
2.000 0.167 0.01282 Living End
2.000 0.333 0.00641 WU
1.958 0.051 0.05556 Other
2.000 0.333 0.00641 Bogles
1.333 1.000 0.00641 Bogles
2.000 0.667 0.00641 Bogles
4.000 1.000 0.01068 G/R Madcap Moon
4.000 0.002 0.00214 Other
1.000 0.100 0.02137 Vizier Company
1.000 0.125 0.01709 Bant Knightfall
1.667 0.006 0.01068 Other
Maindeck: The top cards are Blood Moon (8.76%), Search for Azcanta (7.91%), Eidolon of the Great Revel (6.41%), Courser of Kruphix (3.85%), Spreading Seas (3.63%), Detention Sphere (3.21%), Prismatic Omen (2.14%).
Sideboard: The top cards are Stony Silence (18.59%), Rest in Peace (17.31%), Blood Moon (12.82%), Leyline of Sanctity (7.26%), Ghirapur Aether Grid (6.62%), Eidolon of Rhetoric (6.41%), Leyline of the Void (5.34%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
I think Vexing Devil is a great call for the PT meta. Most Pros were expecting Gx Tron, Affinity, Storm, and Humans. None of those decks pack a particularly large amount of removal.
If Tron is killing the Devil, they lose 4 life anyway. If Affinity is killing him, you gained 4 life and some tempo in a race. If Storm Remands it, then they have to get to a natural 20 storm. If Humans doesn’t have reflector Mage the next turn, you’re bashing for 4 — so they’ll likely take it.
For that specific meta, I think it was a good call. Jeskai and Grixis decks laugh at the card, but the majority of the field has a tough time with it.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
@RoboMemer on Discord
@Robo_Memer on Twitter, Twitch, Reddit, and YouTube
Feel free to PM me about Affinity decks in any format!
I think Vexing Devil is a great call for the PT meta. Most Pros were expecting Gx Tron, Affinity, Storm, and Humans. None of those decks pack a particularly large amount of removal.
If Tron is killing the Devil, they lose 4 life anyway. If Affinity is killing him, you gained 4 life and some tempo in a race. If Storm Remands it, then they have to get to a natural 20 storm. If Humans doesn’t have reflector Mage the next turn, you’re bashing for 4 — so they’ll likely take it.
For that specific meta, I think it was a good call. Jeskai and Grixis decks laugh at the card, but the majority of the field has a tough time with it.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
@RoboMemer on Discord
@Robo_Memer on Twitter, Twitch, Reddit, and YouTube
Feel free to PM me about Affinity decks in any format!
I was killing on mtgo at 20 lands. Went to 19 the last few days, now I'm doing terrible. My 1 landers aren't finding their 2nd land as quickly. I'm mulligaining more and finding bad 6's.
If I'm recalling correctly, the difference is on the order of a few percent, but it depends on your keep criterion. Your experience with 19 over the course of a few days is likely just variance. The opening hand distribution kind of rocks around the most probable outcomes (2 or 3 lands) with 19 picking up some more 1s and less 4s and 20 going the other way. The sum of 2s, 3s, and some reasonable criteria for 1s is almost unchanged between 19 and 20.
There's some stuff in the primer under "Guide to playing the deck" -> "Mulliganing" that talks about opening hand probabilities. Last time I messed with my script, I had it doing some amount of kind of "probability to pan out" estimation. If you have some suggested keep criteria, for keeps, I can run estimation of opening hands and probabilities that the hand is strong on T3 (not too many or too few lands).
If you check mtgtop8 and compare lists, the average is like 19.4-19.6 or something.
The difference is rather small, and I think it really comes down to whether you want to play a 4th vantage or additional fetch vs. playing a flex card like blaze or one of the skullcracks you moved to the side or maybe a single shard volley. Depending on how you do it, 19 lands could free up a sideboard spot by pulling something to the maindeck.
The other concern I have with 19 vs 20 is I've gone to 3 copies of Exquisite Firecraft and I worry that I need 20 with spells with CMC of 3.
I made the switch online 4-5 days ago. Have done probably 5 leagues, and I've had 3 3-2's, 1 0-5, 1 2-3. And a lot of the matchups felt like early stumbles cost me.
I still have flooding though. I played Abzan, got him to 3. He had Lilliana and a Treetop Village. He proceeded to beat me to death over 5 turns where the only non-land I drew was a relic that I immediately cracked for--another land.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
He ended up at 31 pts, but he was 6-0 in draft
Therefore in the modern portion he was 4-5-1 (not sure when the draw was, but it wasn't the last round, so I doubt it was intentional)
Doesn't look like anyone could say devil is good in burn based on this pro tour result
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
I must have been looking at Modern-only point totals, which is why that list was nowhere to be found. Solid performance drafting for him, though.
I think it would be an awful choice because Burn doesn't play 24 creatures. Burn doesn't struggle with being explosive, and a card that's dead unless you have a creature in play is not worth playing.
With aggro in general on the rise with Humans, Affinity, etc its looking like it might be great utility again for us to use.
RGWNaya BurnRGW+++RGWKiki ComboRGW
UGInfectUG+++++++++.++++++++UGMerfolkUG
GGNykthos WaveGG++++++++++GGStompyGG
BRVampiresBR+++++++.+++++++BRGoblinsBR
WGBogglesWG+++++++++++++CRSkred RedCR
UBRGDredgeUBRG++++++++++BB8 RackBB
URWJeskaiURW+++.++UBRGrixis DelverUBR
URStormUR++++++++UWGBant CompanyUWG
WUBRGHumansWUBRG+CCEldrazi TronCC
To my knowledge, Mike Flores is the originator of it lately, though people probably have tried it off and on for a while. It's a turn 1 answer to Noble, it's an etb that doesn't require a discard to get rid of reality smasher, it doesn't give a land, and it encourages sourcery speed interaction and this pumps Swiftspear before it attacks instead of encouraging instant speed interaction that pumps Swiftspear at a time when it might not matter.
I am not attributing it to only this result, it has been a card in the "maybe" category for burn decks since it was printed and tons of people have played/play it. You can call it garbage all you want but its mediocre at worst. 4 damage for 1 mana is nothing to laugh at. just because the card has a downside doesn't make it unplayable.
1 mana, zero damage and time walking yourself is something to laugh at. The card is not good. Also, the pilot went 4-5-1 in modern, which isn't a stand out result. (Edit: though that's not necessarily attributable to Vexing Devil either)
I've literally done the math on Vexing Devil versus likely removal. It's worth about as much damage as Shock, but at least shock is far less likely to be a zero damage time walk. Vexing Devil is garbage, it's unplayable in Modern Burn, but plenty of people read it and say "ooooo 1 mana for 4 damage!" and think it's fantastic. It's not. It's a trap and it's bad.
And take this from someone who has admittedly said that he has played vexing devil plenty in the past and still tries currently to make it work... It is a very intriguing card that has the possibility of doing 4 damage but there is too many one Mana removal that can handle him in the format. he has gotten significantly worse since his printing. I'm not saying you can't play him and win a few games and he might be able 4 damage here and there but a lot of times You'll Play him and they'll be like okay you can have a 4/3 pass the turn and they will just bolt path or push and now he's done nothing when we could have either done Goblin guide and dealt 2 and gotten information about their deck or had Bolt ready for their face or there possible turn one creature. Back when I played him he was less susceptible two getting killed turn one or two so they would usually take the four from my experience but now the Dex have shifted since the beginning of modern and things are not the way they were. He sadly face is too many obstacles to consistently be the 4 damage that we want him to be. My latest iteration was playing him as a 3 of but has been switched to Lavamancers and A Shard volley. Trust me when I say I try make him work LOL
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The January 2018 deck population is 468 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection.
Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (15.38%), Lightning Helix (14.96%), Spell Snare (12.39%), Wurmcoil Engine (10.47%), Scavenging Ooze (9.83%), Logic Knot (9.19%), Remand (9.19%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Cryptic Command (15.51%), Lightning Helix (12.32%), Remand (12.17%), Scavenging Ooze (10.72%), Spell Snare (10.29%), Stubborn Denial (9.57%), Wurmcoil Engine (9.13%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Collective Brutality (23.19%), Dispel (20.29%), Negate (10.14%), Leyline of Sanctity (8.99%), Stubborn Denial (8.70%), Thragtusk (6.96%), Kitchen Finks (5.65%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
6.84% UBR Death's Shadow
6.62% Affinity
6.41% Burn
6.41% WUR Control
4.70% Humans
4.27% Eldrazi Tron
3.42% UR Gifts Storm
3.21% BG Tron
3.21% RG Titanshift
2.78% WU Control
2.78% BGx Midrange
2.78% G Tron
2.78% Mardu Pyromancer
2.56% Dredge
2.35% Eldrazi and Taxes
2.14% Vizier Company
1.92% UR Control
1.71% Bant Knightfall
1.71% B/R Hollow One
1.50% Abzan
1.50% Lantern Control
1.50% BRG
1.28% RG Tron
1.28% Living End
1.28% Ad Nauseam
1.07% URG Control
1.07% WUG Hatebears
1.07% 8-Rack
1.07% G/R Madcap Moon
0.85% Jund
0.85% WUBRG Death's Shadow
0.85% Madcap Moon
0.64% Bogles
0.64% Merfolk
0.64% WU
0.64% WUB Death's Shadow
0.64% Amulet Combo
0.43% WUBR
0.43% WUBRG
0.43% UBR Control
0.43% Counter Cat
0.43% Mono-Red Prison
0.43% Martyr Proc
0.43% UG Infect
0.43% WURG Knightfall
0.43% W
0.43% WBG Tron
0.43% Kiki Chord
0.43% WRG Tron
0.43% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.43% WR
0.21% WG
0.21% G/R Aggro
0.21% Temur Hollow One
0.21% Soul Sisters
0.21% WUR Delver
0.21% WG Hatebears
0.21% Eldrazi Spirits
0.21% Mono-Green Devotion
0.21% Mardu Pack Rat
0.21% UBRG Scapeshift
0.21% BR
0.21% Elves
0.21% WU Delver
0.21% WURG Copycat
0.21% Titan Breach
0.21% BRG Death's Shadow
0.21% Skred Red
0.21% UBG Infect
0.21% Bant Eldrazi
0.21% URG
0.21% WUBRG Humans Company
0.21% Esper Tokens
0.21% WUG Humans Company
0.21% WUG
0.21% WURG Kiki-Resto
0.21% WB Smallpox
0.21% WUBR Death's Shadow
0.21% UBR Delver
0.21% Mill
0.21% Jeskai Breach
0.21% Sultai Midrange
0.21% Death and Taxes
0.21% Mono U Tron
Enchantments: This is a core dump of all enchantments that see play. No attempt was made to remove irrelevant ones.
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Link to previous month: December 2017 (apologies if it goes to the wrong spot on the page, it's post 577).
If Tron is killing the Devil, they lose 4 life anyway. If Affinity is killing him, you gained 4 life and some tempo in a race. If Storm Remands it, then they have to get to a natural 20 storm. If Humans doesn’t have reflector Mage the next turn, you’re bashing for 4 — so they’ll likely take it.
For that specific meta, I think it was a good call. Jeskai and Grixis decks laugh at the card, but the majority of the field has a tough time with it.
@Robo_Memer on Twitter, Twitch, Reddit, and YouTube
Feel free to PM me about Affinity decks in any format!
If Tron is killing the Devil, they lose 4 life anyway. If Affinity is killing him, you gained 4 life and some tempo in a race. If Storm Remands it, then they have to get to a natural 20 storm. If Humans doesn’t have reflector Mage the next turn, you’re bashing for 4 — so they’ll likely take it.
For that specific meta, I think it was a good call. Jeskai and Grixis decks laugh at the card, but the majority of the field has a tough time with it.
@Robo_Memer on Twitter, Twitch, Reddit, and YouTube
Feel free to PM me about Affinity decks in any format!
Chalice on 2 counters Chalice on 1. Therefore they can't play it after Chalice on 2.
I was killing on mtgo at 20 lands. Went to 19 the last few days, now I'm doing terrible. My 1 landers aren't finding their 2nd land as quickly. I'm mulligaining more and finding bad 6's.
But it seems like a lot of top lists are at 19.
There's some stuff in the primer under "Guide to playing the deck" -> "Mulliganing" that talks about opening hand probabilities. Last time I messed with my script, I had it doing some amount of kind of "probability to pan out" estimation. If you have some suggested keep criteria, for keeps, I can run estimation of opening hands and probabilities that the hand is strong on T3 (not too many or too few lands).
So at the end of the day it's probably up to personal preference
"Are you serious?" Chandra replied.
The difference is rather small, and I think it really comes down to whether you want to play a 4th vantage or additional fetch vs. playing a flex card like blaze or one of the skullcracks you moved to the side or maybe a single shard volley. Depending on how you do it, 19 lands could free up a sideboard spot by pulling something to the maindeck.
I made the switch online 4-5 days ago. Have done probably 5 leagues, and I've had 3 3-2's, 1 0-5, 1 2-3. And a lot of the matchups felt like early stumbles cost me.
I still have flooding though. I played Abzan, got him to 3. He had Lilliana and a Treetop Village. He proceeded to beat me to death over 5 turns where the only non-land I drew was a relic that I immediately cracked for--another land.