Update on the scraper: it seems to be crashing less frequently, and I'm saving copies of the data more frequently so that I can kill the script and restart it where it left off before. I'll be able to make the usual post at the beginning of the month.
Also, I finally got to play some Modern this past week on the local Modern night. Went 3-0-1, beating humans, tron, and merfolk. I only had 2 Canyons at the time, but I've got 2 more now and I'll be playing with 4 going forward. My manabase for now is 3 mountain, 2 foundry, 4 canyon, 2 vantage, 8 fetches.
So I am part of a Discord and someone used the link to this forum to give sideboarding advice and the person who asked for it said that it is 2 years out of date so maybe we want to look at updating everything on the primer when time permits
Updating everything is on the list of things to do. I'll get around to it soon. There's only so much time in the day.
I'll start updating a handful per day after the holiday weekend. That should mean it's finished within a few weeks. I'll keep it at it is now, though, with a list of playables rather than a 15 card sideboard guide.
Hogaak probably has a slightly lowered meta presence because people don't want to sink money into something that everyone assumes is going to get banned.
I've been testing Leyline of Combustion, and I actually like it more than I thought I would. It's a nice hedge against fair, interactive midrange/control decks, as well as combo-based decks that target you. I would put it in the same category as Exquisite Firecraft. It's by no means a requirement in a Burn board, but if you have space and you aren't really sure what to fill it with, it's a really decent choice against a variety of matches.
I'd still anticipate four pieces of graveyard hate to anticipate a brief resurgence of dredge plus the usual phoenix shenanigans. I am playing in a $1K this weekend celebrating a new store (with a notoriously generous owner, hell yeah). I will post results, a list, and general thoughts on Sunday. That being said...
This is going to be ******* bonkers. Hogaak warped the metagame to arguably its narrowest ever the past couple weeks. Now, though? It is wide open, and I am very curious to see what happens. Jund and UW were actually very reasonable choices lately, same with humans. I am expecting more dredge and particularly tron to try to take advantage of lowered gy disruption and increased fair decks, respectively. Along with reasonable jund and uw matchups already, burn could be rather strong in this meta. My predictions of ranking, more or less:
phoenix
tron
humans
uw
dredge
jund
burn
misc.
Partly though that is based on knowing my local meta. and to be sure, I like that setup.
I ordered four canyons but only two reached me. The refund kicked in, but with hogaak I didn't know how much modern I would play to justify buying. Now I'm thinking a bit differently. The matches went like this...
R1: vs burn (W2-1)
Lost the die roll and had to mulligan in every single game. Still, though, a skullcracked helix let me get there game one. Game two he had the searing blaze early to turn the corner on my swiftspear and just got there a bit faster. Game three my mull had a great draw, two lands, skullcrack, goblin guide, swiftspear, searing blaze on the play. I rolled over him pretty hard there.
R2: vs BR prison (W2-1)
This one was weird. I kept a slow hand game one that let him not only play chalice on one, but chalice on two while I couldn't quite get there. Game two I am on the play and go swiftspear into eidolon. He got stuck on two lands and had to double ritual into karn the great creator to grab an ensnaring bridge, hoping to stop my creatures but losing four in the progress. I finished with a couple burn spells. Game three he went for a turn one chalice with SSG, turn two brutality, fully escalated, but discarded two blood moons to get there. He then played rabblemaster, but I had a good anti-chalice hand of double eidolon, couple rift bolts and skewers etc that I got there. Again, he got stuck on two lands for a turn or two.
R3: vs Grixis Urza (L2-1)
I don't know anything about the deck. I haven't played modern in two months. It showed. Let's move on
R4: vs UW Control (W2-0)
Game one I get a guide into turn two double swiftspear and he never drew a board wipe. It was quick. Game two was a little weird. He did resolve a timely reinforcements while I had an eidolon out from my second turn on the draw. I was able to use a goblin guide to force blocks though and keep the spirit out there. He tries to oust his last token, which I thought was a setup for a second timely (I have skullcrack at this point) to restock on tokens. I didn't know oust gained you life and he didn't mention his life total until he went to play another spell. It was rather disjointed play where I went "wait oust gains life?" We did walk it back before it was too late so I could stop his oust lifegain. He countered the skullcrack, but I had another in play. THen he played narset and activated it, which revealed his sb'ed lyra dawnbringer. Disappointed in having to tuck away his best out, he was able to hold things off and resolvea teferi, but I attack him down to 4 and finish with exquisite firecraft.
R5: vs GW Devoted combo (W2-1)
At this point its 11p.m. I'm burnt out and couldn't tell you much other than the first two games went fairly long. Game 1 he is unable to combo because I got him to two life with an eidolon in play. He had to draw a tutor to get vizier without dying to a trigger, it didn't happen. Game 2 I screw up and could have won, punted at the last moment. Game 3 I am on the play with turn 1 guide into turn 2 searing blaze on his opening hierarch. He kept a land light hand hoping for hierarch to help but guide didn't give him one. I won in like four turns and he had to play defense the whole time.
4-1 finish, third place out of I think twenty-nine. It got me a Cavern of Souls. My only big takeaway from the list is that I want to swap one vantage and one fetch with two canyons. I had outs in round three but couldn't draw a final burn spell.
R3: vs Grixis Urza (L2-1)
I don't know anything about the deck. I haven't played modern in two months. It showed. Let's move on
Me too, man. I've finally got the local Modern night open and I can play some Modern more often. Congrats on the finish. I've also only gotten to play with 2 Canyons, but I have 4 ready for the next time. I'm still on 19 lands though.
In other news, I've been working on updating the matchup section of the primer. My intention is try to go in depth on important ones like the Humans re-write a bit ago. I think I'll also add a "retired" section to dump less relevant older ones, or perhaps move several up to a "tier matchup" section (let's say the top 10 on goldfish or something). It's coming along, though.
I think twenty lands makes sense now with the ability to mitigate flood with a playset of canyons. I think a build running less, like my most recent one, could stick to nineteen. On a related note, I am just really underwhelmed by grim lavamancer and did not miss him at all. It is a usable card in the humans matchup, but beyond that there's just no tiered deck where I'm excited to draw it. It's okay in the mirror, but I'd prefer searing blood.
@conquistador, I had a chance to win the urza matchup. The chances were there. Game three I actually had two draw steps between a normal draw and a cracked relic of progenitus to bolt the final three life out of him. I did not see that. So quite literally, another moment where a playset of canyons can mean the difference between winning and losing.
Is there any comment on Andrew Shrout's list?
I found it interesting that he decided to drop the charms and fetches while running a single searing blaze for LUtS, volley, firebrand, and u/r canopies. His sideboard options are also pretty spicy!
I've been playing three Canopy-style lands in another deck and it has felt like one too many. Eight strikes me as nuts. Burn is different, but eight still seems like suicide.
I haven't tried LutS, so my opinion might not be worth much and I don't think I'm going to, but if I did, it would be a one-of or maybe a two-of.
Some of the side-board is obviously anti-Hogaak tech. It remains to be seen how much grave-hate is needed now.
8 is a bit much in the mirror and other damage races, but it's fine against matchups where your life total doesn't matter (UW control and Tron, for example). I recently played a European modern series qualifier with 5 in straight boros and it felt great, even in aggromatchups like zoo. I first tested 8 but realized that besides the damage it also just takes too much time to crack more than 1-2 in a game unless it goes long, in which case you'll see a higher % of the ones you're playing anyway. According to the hypergeometric distribution, playing 5 leads to 60%+ chance of 1 or more of them in 10 cards, which is a good number in my opinion. They were great for me in the tournament, exactly what burn needed, and will never play fewer than 4 for sure.
I can see 8 being fine in mono red, but not playing fetches with searing blaze is just bad so there's possibly no room for all of them.
As for the EMSQ, I made top 8 but lost in the semis to the same guy I lost to in the swiss. He played dredge and I woefully underprepared for that matchup with just 1 grafdigger's cage and 1 rest in peace. I manage to snag 1 game in the top 4 based on a mull to 5 with both pieces of hate but mulling to 3 g3 for land and rip didn't get there as he had the claim and was on the play.
I beat Jund, Bant neoform toolbox, counters company and UR phoenix. It's funny how jund, in G2, went T1 IoK take my goblin guide, I topdeck GG and decide to play it, it reveals collective brutality on attack and he double escalates it T2. I won that game easily. No clock means brutality does nothing, but not many people seem to get that. Only if the brutality also enables your deck, like in mardu pyromancer or, better, hollow one, is it actually a big deal.
Anyway, time to retool my sideboard a bit. I mean, he did go nuts against me with multiple t2 massive creature dumps and even hogaak (his 1-off..) with multiple creeping chills, which made it look completely hopeless, but having so little gy hate really cost me.
@Huviam. Beating humans is basically based on how many searing blaze/blood you draw to disrupt their clock while beating down. Also make sure to not walk your rift bolts into meddling mage. If you manage their board such that you win the race, you should win. The trick is a) having enough blazes and b) not losing the 'killing them' aspect of the game out of sight by gunning down every single creature they play. By killing some essential creatures you can slow them down enough to kill them using plan A, so don't overboard with tons of removal that doesn't go to the face.
Can someone give me tips against the humans matchups? It seems impossible
I agree completely with R3doxNL. This matchup is about 2 for 1 value and damage recursion. Searing Blaze and Grim Lavamancer are the work horses against this deck. When I have room in my sideboard and not packing 6 graveyard hate cards, I've also been running 2 copies of Satyr Firedancer. If it sticks, the board control it provides is incredible. Point all damage at face and essentially get a free creature removal. In Christmas land (which does happen more often than not) Blaze, creature, burn face, free burn second creature based on the static effect feels really good. Humans is light on hard removal so the Satyr does usually stick. The card also works well vs Spirits, and Affinity decks.
Meddling Mage is the trap you're playing around and like R3doxNL said, having it remove your suspended rift bolt does not feel good.
There's a guy on the modern burn discord who swears by 6 canlands in his 20 land list but no more. I'm still gonna play 19 but run only 4. And you can still flodd and canopies not mitigate it. I watched a few YouTube vids where 20 lands is still proven to be too many even with the canlands bc of the flooding imo
Thoughts on Jared Day's list from last weekends Star City Games Invitational Qualifier.
What's interesting to me are the zero fetches to, I assume, helps preserve his life total. The major thing I noticed with this list was the cut of Goblin Guides down to 2 to make room for a single lavamancer and shard. Personally I don't think I'd cut guides but I do like the manabase and would properly do something like 4 sunbaked, 3 vantage.
Thoughts on Jared Day's list from last weekends Star City Games Invitational Qualifier.
What's interesting to me are the zero fetches to, I assume, helps preserve his life total. The major thing I noticed with this list was the cut of Goblin Guides down to 2 to make room for a single lavamancer and shard. Personally I don't think I'd cut guides but I do like the manabase and would properly do something like 4 sunbaked, 3 vantage.
If he swapped Canlands for fetches it's not to preserve his life-total; wait till you start a game with two of them as your only lands! Yes, you probably should mulligan that hand. A starting hand with two fetches is pretty sweet, though, isn't it?
Thoughts on Jared Day's list from last weekends Star City Games Invitational Qualifier.
What's interesting to me are the zero fetches to, I assume, helps preserve his life total. The major thing I noticed with this list was the cut of Goblin Guides down to 2 to make room for a single lavamancer and shard. Personally I don't think I'd cut guides but I do like the manabase and would properly do something like 4 sunbaked, 3 vantage.
That's going to feel really bad when an opener has Mountain Mountain Charm Charm. It also makes the Firewalker in the side very hard to cast in time. I also strongly think cutting any Guides is wrong until a better "R: 2/2 Haste" gets printed.
Just come back to Burn after a spell trying other stuff out...deck feels pretty good although I've noticed UW Control is pretty hard these days. New T3feri helps out a lot and MB Timely Reinforcements is such a drag. Any tips on how to fight the match-up? A couple of creatures in the opening hand with some burn is normally good but it doesn't always seal the deal...I normally board in 2 x Exquisite Firecraft.
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So I am part of a Discord and someone used the link to this forum to give sideboarding advice and the person who asked for it said that it is 2 years out of date so maybe we want to look at updating everything on the primer when time permits
I'll start updating a handful per day after the holiday weekend. That should mean it's finished within a few weeks. I'll keep it at it is now, though, with a list of playables rather than a 15 card sideboard guide.
Hogaak probably has a slightly lowered meta presence because people don't want to sink money into something that everyone assumes is going to get banned.
This is going to be ******* bonkers. Hogaak warped the metagame to arguably its narrowest ever the past couple weeks. Now, though? It is wide open, and I am very curious to see what happens. Jund and UW were actually very reasonable choices lately, same with humans. I am expecting more dredge and particularly tron to try to take advantage of lowered gy disruption and increased fair decks, respectively. Along with reasonable jund and uw matchups already, burn could be rather strong in this meta. My predictions of ranking, more or less:
phoenix
tron
humans
uw
dredge
jund
burn
misc.
Partly though that is based on knowing my local meta. and to be sure, I like that setup.
The List
I ordered four canyons but only two reached me. The refund kicked in, but with hogaak I didn't know how much modern I would play to justify buying. Now I'm thinking a bit differently. The matches went like this...
R1: vs burn (W2-1)
Lost the die roll and had to mulligan in every single game. Still, though, a skullcracked helix let me get there game one. Game two he had the searing blaze early to turn the corner on my swiftspear and just got there a bit faster. Game three my mull had a great draw, two lands, skullcrack, goblin guide, swiftspear, searing blaze on the play. I rolled over him pretty hard there.
R2: vs BR prison (W2-1)
This one was weird. I kept a slow hand game one that let him not only play chalice on one, but chalice on two while I couldn't quite get there. Game two I am on the play and go swiftspear into eidolon. He got stuck on two lands and had to double ritual into karn the great creator to grab an ensnaring bridge, hoping to stop my creatures but losing four in the progress. I finished with a couple burn spells. Game three he went for a turn one chalice with SSG, turn two brutality, fully escalated, but discarded two blood moons to get there. He then played rabblemaster, but I had a good anti-chalice hand of double eidolon, couple rift bolts and skewers etc that I got there. Again, he got stuck on two lands for a turn or two.
R3: vs Grixis Urza (L2-1)
I don't know anything about the deck. I haven't played modern in two months. It showed. Let's move on
R4: vs UW Control (W2-0)
Game one I get a guide into turn two double swiftspear and he never drew a board wipe. It was quick. Game two was a little weird. He did resolve a timely reinforcements while I had an eidolon out from my second turn on the draw. I was able to use a goblin guide to force blocks though and keep the spirit out there. He tries to oust his last token, which I thought was a setup for a second timely (I have skullcrack at this point) to restock on tokens. I didn't know oust gained you life and he didn't mention his life total until he went to play another spell. It was rather disjointed play where I went "wait oust gains life?" We did walk it back before it was too late so I could stop his oust lifegain. He countered the skullcrack, but I had another in play. THen he played narset and activated it, which revealed his sb'ed lyra dawnbringer. Disappointed in having to tuck away his best out, he was able to hold things off and resolvea teferi, but I attack him down to 4 and finish with exquisite firecraft.
R5: vs GW Devoted combo (W2-1)
At this point its 11p.m. I'm burnt out and couldn't tell you much other than the first two games went fairly long. Game 1 he is unable to combo because I got him to two life with an eidolon in play. He had to draw a tutor to get vizier without dying to a trigger, it didn't happen. Game 2 I screw up and could have won, punted at the last moment. Game 3 I am on the play with turn 1 guide into turn 2 searing blaze on his opening hierarch. He kept a land light hand hoping for hierarch to help but guide didn't give him one. I won in like four turns and he had to play defense the whole time.
4-1 finish, third place out of I think twenty-nine. It got me a Cavern of Souls. My only big takeaway from the list is that I want to swap one vantage and one fetch with two canyons. I had outs in round three but couldn't draw a final burn spell.
Me too, man. I've finally got the local Modern night open and I can play some Modern more often. Congrats on the finish. I've also only gotten to play with 2 Canyons, but I have 4 ready for the next time. I'm still on 19 lands though.
In other news, I've been working on updating the matchup section of the primer. My intention is try to go in depth on important ones like the Humans re-write a bit ago. I think I'll also add a "retired" section to dump less relevant older ones, or perhaps move several up to a "tier matchup" section (let's say the top 10 on goldfish or something). It's coming along, though.
3 Bloodstained Mire
2 Arid Mesa
2 Wooded foothills
4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Sunbaked Canyon
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Mountain
Creatures(12)
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the great revel
4 Boros Charm
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skewer the critics
2 Path to Exile
2 kor firewalker
3 Rest in peace
4 Smash to smithereens
2 Deflecting Palm
2 skullcrack
I will try to attach my sideboard notes with this message. What do you guys think ?
yeaahhh i know 20 lands seems a lot, but with 4 horizon lands, its not that bad...
@conquistador, I had a chance to win the urza matchup. The chances were there. Game three I actually had two draw steps between a normal draw and a cracked relic of progenitus to bolt the final three life out of him. I did not see that. So quite literally, another moment where a playset of canyons can mean the difference between winning and losing.
I found it interesting that he decided to drop the charms and fetches while running a single searing blaze for LUtS, volley, firebrand, and u/r canopies. His sideboard options are also pretty spicy!
Burn
I've been playing three Canopy-style lands in another deck and it has felt like one too many. Eight strikes me as nuts. Burn is different, but eight still seems like suicide.
I haven't tried LutS, so my opinion might not be worth much and I don't think I'm going to, but if I did, it would be a one-of or maybe a two-of.
Some of the side-board is obviously anti-Hogaak tech. It remains to be seen how much grave-hate is needed now.
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
I can see 8 being fine in mono red, but not playing fetches with searing blaze is just bad so there's possibly no room for all of them.
As for the EMSQ, I made top 8 but lost in the semis to the same guy I lost to in the swiss. He played dredge and I woefully underprepared for that matchup with just 1 grafdigger's cage and 1 rest in peace. I manage to snag 1 game in the top 4 based on a mull to 5 with both pieces of hate but mulling to 3 g3 for land and rip didn't get there as he had the claim and was on the play.
I beat Jund, Bant neoform toolbox, counters company and UR phoenix. It's funny how jund, in G2, went T1 IoK take my goblin guide, I topdeck GG and decide to play it, it reveals collective brutality on attack and he double escalates it T2. I won that game easily. No clock means brutality does nothing, but not many people seem to get that. Only if the brutality also enables your deck, like in mardu pyromancer or, better, hollow one, is it actually a big deal.
Anyway, time to retool my sideboard a bit. I mean, he did go nuts against me with multiple t2 massive creature dumps and even hogaak (his 1-off..) with multiple creeping chills, which made it look completely hopeless, but having so little gy hate really cost me.
@Huviam. Beating humans is basically based on how many searing blaze/blood you draw to disrupt their clock while beating down. Also make sure to not walk your rift bolts into meddling mage. If you manage their board such that you win the race, you should win. The trick is a) having enough blazes and b) not losing the 'killing them' aspect of the game out of sight by gunning down every single creature they play. By killing some essential creatures you can slow them down enough to kill them using plan A, so don't overboard with tons of removal that doesn't go to the face.
I agree completely with R3doxNL. This matchup is about 2 for 1 value and damage recursion. Searing Blaze and Grim Lavamancer are the work horses against this deck. When I have room in my sideboard and not packing 6 graveyard hate cards, I've also been running 2 copies of Satyr Firedancer. If it sticks, the board control it provides is incredible. Point all damage at face and essentially get a free creature removal. In Christmas land (which does happen more often than not) Blaze, creature, burn face, free burn second creature based on the static effect feels really good. Humans is light on hard removal so the Satyr does usually stick. The card also works well vs Spirits, and Affinity decks.
Meddling Mage is the trap you're playing around and like R3doxNL said, having it remove your suspended rift bolt does not feel good.
What's interesting to me are the zero fetches to, I assume, helps preserve his life total. The major thing I noticed with this list was the cut of Goblin Guides down to 2 to make room for a single lavamancer and shard. Personally I don't think I'd cut guides but I do like the manabase and would properly do something like 4 sunbaked, 3 vantage.
Burn
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
That's going to feel really bad when an opener has Mountain Mountain Charm Charm. It also makes the Firewalker in the side very hard to cast in time. I also strongly think cutting any Guides is wrong until a better "R: 2/2 Haste" gets printed.