ElQ - Thx for the feedback, I think you are right about the manabase, but I I'm not sure about the Claws. Burn is big and the mana does not support Firewalker. What to do
So idt we should give up enchant hate. All other players know theres a new bolt in town. I think ppl know how good burn was to begin with and how we rly needed only 1 more decent bolt. I'm sure people know burn is coming. Statistics show the past not the future. What do you guys think?
ElQ - Thx for the feedback, I think you are right about the manabase, but I I'm not sure about the Claws. Burn is big and the mana does not support Firewalker. What to do
Searing Blood. You don't need Kor Firewalker to win a mirror. The spot is better spent on shoring other matchups.
So idt we should give up enchant hate. All other players know theres a new bolt in town. I think ppl know how good burn was to begin with and how we rly needed only 1 more decent bolt. I'm sure people know burn is coming. Statistics show the past not the future. What do you guys think?
Some might bring leyline because they expect Burn, but they'll only raise leyline use up to 5-10%, I expect, and that's not a lot. I don't think you can really expect leyline to be a problem until Burn gets huge. Right now, graveyard decks are the boogieman, and Burn hasn't shown itself to be the boogieman yet. I'd stay on Smash for now.
The newest top level podcast has some discussion of Skewer the Critics and Light Up the Stage, at least at the beginning (haven't listened to all of it yet): http://www.toplevelpodcast.com/skewer-the-critics/
The other day, Mike Flores posted some RB Burn/Mid-range thing with Death's Shadow, but it sounds like he's still on RW from think Podcast. He also thinks that Kor Firewalker is worth playing because of expecting more Burn and the Phoenix decks (I expect he's still off DRev though). I don't think he's high on LUtS in Burn, but just acknowledging that some are.
I don't think he's high on LUtS in Burn, but just acknowledging that some are.
I'm not a fan either, but I didn't test it yet. Most of the "Card draw" I've tested in burn didn't turn out great, but maybe it's gonna be different this time. It's the first card draw spell in red that's both one mana and a draw 2, which is technically a +1 and it's easy to enable the spectacle in burn. We can't cast it on turn 1 which is kind of a big deal and there's definitely some awkward scenarios of card exiled (two lands, two 2-mana cards that you don't have time to cast, etc), but Light up the stage still looks very good. It bring the old question of how good must a "draw" card be to be ran in burn tho.
We don't want Browbeat or Risk factor because 3 mana and we give the choice to our opponent. Even if both choices are arguably good for us, they're not straight draw power cards. We don't run Faithless looting or Cathartic reunion because they're not a +1 (Hell, faithless is a -1) and it's mana spent on card filtering instead of burning. If deck thinning was our problem, we'd be running Street wraith and Mishra's Bauble. Fantastic cantrips, but wraith is dangerous in this aggro meta, and Bauble is kinda slow, AND running either or both of those options will make mulligans really risky.
Idealy we'd want to BURN while drawing, but the cards we have that do this are kind of mediocre (See Needle drop, Electrolyze, Magma Jet)
So it's definitely the +1 for one mana that warms people up to Light up the stage, but is it really good enough for burn or are we wasting time not burning stuff?
With my MR, I have a very high winrate against Boros with a myriad of games played, often on the draw since I win, and with no sideboard. He played Helix that I don't have, he played Blaze that I don't have. However, he had also fetchlands. Fetchlands killed him, every times. Even at fetching his spicy basic plains. MR is 7x3=21, so if they take only 2 damages they die. Seems like draw > helix
Light up the stage feels me really like Epic sax Gandalf. It's funny because R: Draw 2 cards, it's not a burn spell, I just spend one mana to draw a card (and replace itself), it works poorly with Rift bolt. In real, it's crazy. So many damages thrown in his face An advice I can give: ALWAYS cast first your LutS because it can exiles a land, so you can play that land and keep the one of your hand. It is nice to bluff in example.
The four slots for Risk factor are flexible. I am just too much fan of this card. We also tried to swap decks, letting me calculate and figure out what to do when I have to choose. It's tough. I understand people that are making the worst between the two worst decisions. This card is fabulous. I was very afraid also of should I really play them with Shard volley like am I mad ?! However, LutS is here and lands are not a problem at all, especially when I am mono colored deck and that plays 20 lands. Last thing I am very afraid are fast decks. Boros Burn is a good example since we normally should win on turn four, Izzet phoenix or Dredge are the same. Well, if they can't, RF just wins you the game. That's it !
It's also important to notice how good are to play 8 potential card engine (since RF can very well deals 8 damages face) against counterplays of Burn. In example, your opponent plays some lifegain and you don't have your Skullcrack to counter it ! Or your opponent has fun to discard your hand (+1 Lili) or counter your spells or has fun to create values. You will win those games thanks to Risk factor, either Light up the stage which its 2 cards in exile.
I say you honestly, my version is really hard to pilot, thanks to those 8 Light up the stage and Risk factor. There are so many different sequences to do, it's amazing. Concretly, what to choose between do card advantage, anticipate your opponent's play, maximise swiftspear's damages, jam Eidolon asap, think about your next or your two next turns, play one drops instead of Eidolon, quickly burn your hand. What to choose after a LutS between play your reevealed cards, or do an other play, take a risk at letting one card staying exiled.
Burn becomes really interesting to play, rewarding you to do a correct sequence.
However I'm not fixed at all about those four slots, it's possible that I should need just two or none Risk factor. It is true that multiple Risk factors are clunky against (only) fast decks.
The rest is good. 20 Lightning bolts, 8 potential draw engines. That is fast, that is consistent, that is resilent. I respect pretty well the concept of 40 Lightning bolts-like. I will stick with mono red now, selling all my white cards and all my lands except basic mountains. I'm convinced. I didn't convinced my friend that sticks on Boros, anyway
Skullcrack and Searing blaze/blood are the natural replacment for the two or four remaining slots.
I don't like four Skullcrack because how it often is a two mana face burn, due to low lifegain maindeck present. A split 2 MB 2 Sb might be more correct.
I like Searing blaze in the sideboard with 20 mountains, especially on the draw because I have less the Landfall problem since I land naturally each turns. My opp has initiative to be on the play so a sorcery Blaze finds a target. I don't think Blaze is good in main board due to that.
I think that Searing blood looses more to more potential targets, Spirits are the perfect example, so it might be better to just work on Blaze.
Since I have had no issues at playing four drop-3 Risk factor with 4 Shard volley, I'm considering the spicy Ball lightning. It is a kill, no less. It just needs a good timing to not throw it on a Fatal pute/Bolt, outside of that, we don't care about blockers, kill them all. That's it !
I consider Ball lightning because there are no other Lightning bolts in red. I would not hesitate to jam Boros charm in white or Bump in the night in black, however I don't want anymore to splash.
I will be sad, for sure, if Leyline of sanctity will become 10+% of the metagame. For no, it's more the resurgence of creature toolbox and its Shalai, voice of plenty and Knight of autumn that are annoying. All good points for Ball lightning, that said
I certainly understand why there is debate about Light Up the Stage as an inclusion in Modern Burn, but I also think people simply aren't assessing where this card falls into the deck based on our own collective experiences.
As of right now (Pre RNA), there basically isn't a single card in Burn that doesn't deal damage (Outside of the Sideboard). We run 20 1-drops (If we count Rift Bolt), and 20 2-drops (based on an average RWx deck).
We know that basically the only way we lose is to a Leyline of Sanctity, a deck that moves faster than us, and running out of gas (I include "bad draws" in Running Out of Gas).
Burn essentially wants 3 lands in play to maximize our play. Sometimes we get by on 2 lands, while other times we just flood out, which means we're not drawing burn.
When stuck on 2 lands, we want to be casting 1-drops to maximize damage per turn. 6 damage from 2 spells vs. 3 or 4 damage from one 2cmc spell.
I would argue that 2 drop spells are what most often screw over burn players; since we run so few lands, we really want our opening hand to have as many 1cmc spells as possible. A hand with 5 1cmc spells and 2 lands is already 15 damage (Not necessarily, but you get it), not even factoring in recurring damage from our creatures. A hand with 2cmc spells, some 1 cmc spells, and 2 lands, REALLY slows us down, since we have to decide if we want to be dealing 6 damage or 3/4 damage with our 2 mana, while the 3/4 damage spells clog up our mana and restrict our flexibility ("Do I want to throw this Lightning Helix at my OP or their creature?" vs. "Oh! I'll throw this Lava Spike at OP and my Lightning Bolt at their creature!").
Basically, we want to run as many 1cmc spells as possible. Skewer the Critics and Light Up the Stage are both 1cmc spells. I don't care what their actual cmc says, as long as we're running a critical mass of 1cmc burn spells, we'll always be able to trigger spectacle. This is not the case if we're running too many 2cmc spells, since we might use 2 mana on a Helix and not have mana left to trigger spectacle.
Now, onto Light Up the Stage: This is the grease in our burn engine that keeps us running efficiently. If we take out a 2cmc spell for LUtS, we'll still be triggering spectacle at a reliable rate, while also managing to either a) Make sure we make our land drops when necessary, or b) skim unwanted lands off our deck to ensure we keep drawing gas - and as long as our spells are 1cmc, there is a very good chance that with only 3 lands in play, we'll always be able to play a spell peeled off with LUtS. Even more, if we only have 2 lands in play, we can Bolt the OP, Spectacle LUtS, and if we exile a land and a 1cmc spell, we'll be able to play the land and the spell that turn (We can even play the land and play the spell during OP's turn, provided it s an instant).
Both these new spectacle spells together drastically lower the curve of our deck. It allows us to play the necessary critical mass of 1cmc spells, and it ensures that we always have gas to keep going.
Light Up the Stage makes Gonti's Machinations less bad. The problem with Machinations is that you need to draw it early, and Light does just that, help you draw it early. However, most of the time you're only getting Machinations on turn 3 or later off Light - T1 Rift Bolt > T2 Light, Machinations is possible, but you'd usually play a creature on T1 instead. T1 creature > T2 attack, Light, Machinations is another sequence, but if your T1 creature is Swiftspear, you'd prefer to play spells pre-combat to pump it. That said, T3 Machinations is still on schedule to be sacced on T4.
Light also helps you draw into your SB cards, a prominent one being Tormod's Crypt because it's free and thus works very well with Swiftspear and Light.
In my experience Light doesn't go well with Shard Volley. The typical scenario was 2 lands in play and a hand full of burn. I'd play Light hoping to dig into the 3rd land and end up exiling a useless Shard Volley. Shard Volley wants to be played at a very specific time (when you've used up all your other burn), but more often than not, this doesn't coincide with Light's timing.
If you aren't splashing white, consider Murderous Cut in the SB as Path to Exile's replacement. Flipping 2 spells or spell + fetchland off Light counts for 3 mana towards Cut (including Light itself).
Some have called to Treasure Cruise as an analogy for LUtS (I shared what's written below on Reddit the other day). I think that they aren't as close as people would like to believe, because draw 3 is significantly better than draw 2. Let's assume that a deck is 2/3 Burn spells, which assumes that creatures are always live draws (which isn't necessarily true) and let's ignore that Rift Bolt is almost a dead draw with LutS. We'll also assume that whatever we draw with LutS is definitely getting played this turn it next turn, rather than left in exile.
With draw 2, your outcomes are 1/9 to draw 0 spells, 4/9 to draw 1 spell, and 4/9 to draw 2 spells. LutS draws 1.33 Burn spells on average, but with some variance. It's worth 2 only 44% of the time. When you draw 1, you're basically adding a tax of R to that spell and that happens 44% of the time. That's too high for my liking.
With draw 3, it's 1/27 to draw 0, 2/9 to draw 1, 4/9 to draw 2, and 8/27 to draw 3. Treasure Cruise draws 2 Burn spells on average, also with some variance. It's worth more than 1 almost 75% of the time. I'm willing to pay a tax of 1/2U or 1/3U for the spells I draw, and the tax of U for 1 spell only happens 22% of the time.
Put another way, LutS has a 55% probability of what I consider to be bad outcomes (0 or 1 spell) because those outcomes imply that simply playing Lightning Strike in place of LutS would have been an equal or better outcome. TC has only a 25% of those same bad outcomes.
In order for me to accept that playing LUtS is worth it, I'd have to convince myself that "R: draw 2 lands" is a good outcome for the reason of "you just moved them off the top of the deck". At present, I regard that as a bad outcome. Think of it this way, instead of paying mana for a burn spell and drawing lands the next 2 turns, you pay mana to move 2 lands off you're deck and get a slightly higher probability to draw a non-land next draw step. The first situation may cause a loss, or it could cause a win if the burn spell you had instead of LUtS wins now.
So after a lot of playgroup testing I'm pretty high up on Light up the stage in rakdos burn. I never much liked playing with 2 cmc burn spells anyway and the inclusion of LUTS and bump in the night means I don't have to.
I believe Rakdos is the best deck to take advantage of the card draw of LUTS, as it has the lowest curve and the quickest goldfish. Grim Lavamancer x 2 in the main is the only spot i'm slightly unsure of, and might consider skullcracks instead.
I'd just like to clarify - if we do run LUtS, I think we need to cut Rift Bolt, that's certainly too risky a card with the spectacle mechanic. And instead of thinking of LUtS as a Treasure Cruise or a Divination, I think we need to think about it as a new type of draw spell. Essentially Light Up the Stage is more like "Pay R: Scry 2, you may choose to put those cards into your hand instead". Which really makes me ask: Would you (in the worst case scenario for LUtS) pay R for a Preordain that doesn't draw you a card? From my own experience playing burn, knowing the majority of my losses are from bad late-game draws, I would say Yes, I would be willing to pay that.
Since you play 20 lands which is really huge for your rakdos list, I can strongly advice you to play 4 shard volley and remove your 2 lavaman and 2 blaze. Volley IS Lightning bolt.
What is your argument for Collective brutality ? How would you escalade it ?
I'd just like to clarify - if we do run LUtS, I think we need to cut Rift Bolt, that's certainly too risky a card with the spectacle mechanic. And instead of thinking of LUtS as a Treasure Cruise or a Divination, I think we need to think about it as a new type of draw spell. Essentially Light Up the Stage is more like "Pay R: Scry 2, you may choose to put those cards into your hand instead". Which really makes me ask: Would you (in the worst case scenario for LUtS) pay R for a Preordain that doesn't draw you a card? From my own experience playing burn, knowing the majority of my losses are from bad late-game draws, I would say Yes, I would be willing to pay that.
I'm sorry, but I disagree on both counts. Rift Bolt is a great spectacle enabler, especially for awkward hands with multiple skewer the critics. As for Light Up The Stage, in my experience it compares favorably to thoughtcast. For both spells you basically dump your hand first, then replenish it with your one mana draw spell to have some reach. It's low cost and high yield enable you to fill your deck with 1 mana lightning bolts similar to how thoughtcast connects the dots between Ornithopter and Memnite and lethal damage on turn 3.
I'd just like to clarify - if we do run LUtS, I think we need to cut Rift Bolt, that's certainly too risky a card with the spectacle mechanic. And instead of thinking of LUtS as a Treasure Cruise or a Divination, I think we need to think about it as a new type of draw spell. Essentially Light Up the Stage is more like "Pay R: Scry 2, you may choose to put those cards into your hand instead". Which really makes me ask: Would you (in the worst case scenario for LUtS) pay R for a Preordain that doesn't draw you a card? From my own experience playing burn, knowing the majority of my losses are from bad late-game draws, I would say Yes, I would be willing to pay that.
I'm not willing to cut any bolt variants for a card just to hope to draw burn variants, especially given how friendly Rift Bolt is with Skewer the Critics (and would be with enabling LUtS). I think it's diluting the consistency of the deck far too much.
I'm skeptical about LotS, but I do think it merits testing at least. This one is hard for me to judge on theory alone. One thing I like about it is that, if it is indeed good, it likely enables monored in the main. That can be huge.
The configuration shows some of my personal taste but the board and non-bolt spells are pretty flexible. The 4x Wear/Tear and 1x Disenchant can easily be 4x Smash to Smithereens and 1x Shattering Spree. I'm already seeing poor interaction between LotS and the sideboard though. It feels like stretching.
We do not. That's a good suggestion and others' input on it would be great before I add something there.
In my opinion:
Turn 1: You want to open with Guide/Swift if you can. Otherwise, Rift Bolt or Lava Spike (though such hands are problematic, though no one can blame you for keeping 2 lands, 3 bolts, 2 Charms or something).
Turn 2(option a): Hold your land, swing with your creature to bait removal, land+Eidolon on second main (if available).
Turn 2(option b): Otherwise, I'll often try to remove excess 2CMC cards from my hand at this stage so that I can play 2CMC+1CMC next turn. Searing Blaze things if it matters. Hold Skullcrack for now. Holding a Charm until your opponent's EoT is fine.
Turn 2(option c): If I can set up something busted like Rift+Rift+Bolt+Charm for a big Swiftspear next turn, I probably will try (because that's our easiest T3 kill).
Turn 3: Continue removing 2CMC and 3CMC cards from your hand as appropriate.
You know how your opponent always whines about your lucky topdecks? Plan on that happening and make sure you have the mana available to accomplish it. This means that you should fire off cards so that you aren't bottlenecked on mana with your next topdeck (as in you want to be able to hardcast Rift Bolt to win if you draw it). If you're heavy on white cards in hand and have a fetch available but no other open mana, burn a fetch for a tapped Sacred Foundry so that you'll be able to Charm+Helix if you have one in hand and topdeck the other.
We do not. That's a good suggestion and others' input on it would be great before I add something there.
In my opinion:
Turn 1: You want to open with Guide/Swift if you can. Otherwise, Rift Bolt or Lava Spike (though such hands are problematic, though no one can blame you for keeping 2 lands, 3 bolts, 2 Charms or something).
Turn 2(option a): Hold your land, swing with your creature to bait removal, land+Eidolon on second main (if available).
Turn 2(option b): Otherwise, I'll often try to remove excess 2CMC cards from my hand at this stage so that I can play 2CMC+1CMC next turn. Searing Blaze things if it matters. Hold Skullcrack for now. Holding a Charm until your opponent's EoT is fine.
Turn 2(option c): If I can set up something busted like Rift+Rift+Bolt+Charm for a big Swiftspear next turn, I probably will try (because that's our easiest T3 kill).
Turn 3: Continue removing 2CMC and 3CMC cards from your hand as appropriate.
You know how your opponent always whines about your lucky topdecks? Plan on that happening and make sure you have the mana available to accomplish it. This means that you should fire off cards so that you aren't bottlenecked on mana with your next topdeck (as in you want to be able to hardcast Rift Bolt to win if you draw it). If you're heavy on white cards in hand and have a fetch available but no other open mana, burn a fetch for a tapped Sacred Foundry so that you'll be able to Charm+Helix if you have one in hand and topdeck the other.
I’d like to add to Turn 1:
If on the draw, always bolt the bird. If they drop birds of paradise, noble hierarch, or any other mana dork then that needs to go! Also applies to turn 1 Glistener Elf don’t mess around with those one drops, kill them as quick as you can.
Regarding Skewer:
I love this card. I put Skullcrack in the side to make room for it and havn’t been disappointed once. Skewer is an amazing and powerful card! I’ve won games with it that only a 1 mana bolt to the face would have, so having 4 in the deck over any other 2 drop is wonderful
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Kitchen table Magic is the best Magic!
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
Searing Blood. You don't need Kor Firewalker to win a mirror. The spot is better spent on shoring other matchups.
Some might bring leyline because they expect Burn, but they'll only raise leyline use up to 5-10%, I expect, and that's not a lot. I don't think you can really expect leyline to be a problem until Burn gets huge. Right now, graveyard decks are the boogieman, and Burn hasn't shown itself to be the boogieman yet. I'd stay on Smash for now.
The other day, Mike Flores posted some RB Burn/Mid-range thing with Death's Shadow, but it sounds like he's still on RW from think Podcast. He also thinks that Kor Firewalker is worth playing because of expecting more Burn and the Phoenix decks (I expect he's still off DRev though). I don't think he's high on LUtS in Burn, but just acknowledging that some are.
We don't want Browbeat or Risk factor because 3 mana and we give the choice to our opponent. Even if both choices are arguably good for us, they're not straight draw power cards. We don't run Faithless looting or Cathartic reunion because they're not a +1 (Hell, faithless is a -1) and it's mana spent on card filtering instead of burning. If deck thinning was our problem, we'd be running Street wraith and Mishra's Bauble. Fantastic cantrips, but wraith is dangerous in this aggro meta, and Bauble is kinda slow, AND running either or both of those options will make mulligans really risky.
Idealy we'd want to BURN while drawing, but the cards we have that do this are kind of mediocre (See Needle drop, Electrolyze, Magma Jet)
So it's definitely the +1 for one mana that warms people up to Light up the stage, but is it really good enough for burn or are we wasting time not burning stuff?
"To burn or not to burn. That is the question."
(W/B)BW Tokens(W/B) | (B/R)Rakdos Burn(B/R) | (U/R)Gift Storm(U/R)
12 creatures
4 Bolt
4 Lava spike
4 Rift bolt
4 Skewer the critics
4 Shard volley
4 Light up the stage
4 Risk factor
4 Smash to smithereens
4 Searing blaze
3 Tormod's crypt
With my MR, I have a very high winrate against Boros with a myriad of games played, often on the draw since I win, and with no sideboard. He played Helix that I don't have, he played Blaze that I don't have. However, he had also fetchlands. Fetchlands killed him, every times. Even at fetching his spicy basic plains. MR is 7x3=21, so if they take only 2 damages they die. Seems like draw > helix
Light up the stage feels me really like Epic sax Gandalf. It's funny because R: Draw 2 cards, it's not a burn spell, I just spend one mana to draw a card (and replace itself), it works poorly with Rift bolt. In real, it's crazy. So many damages thrown in his face An advice I can give: ALWAYS cast first your LutS because it can exiles a land, so you can play that land and keep the one of your hand. It is nice to bluff in example.
The four slots for Risk factor are flexible. I am just too much fan of this card. We also tried to swap decks, letting me calculate and figure out what to do when I have to choose. It's tough. I understand people that are making the worst between the two worst decisions. This card is fabulous. I was very afraid also of should I really play them with Shard volley like am I mad ?! However, LutS is here and lands are not a problem at all, especially when I am mono colored deck and that plays 20 lands. Last thing I am very afraid are fast decks. Boros Burn is a good example since we normally should win on turn four, Izzet phoenix or Dredge are the same. Well, if they can't, RF just wins you the game. That's it !
It's also important to notice how good are to play 8 potential card engine (since RF can very well deals 8 damages face) against counterplays of Burn. In example, your opponent plays some lifegain and you don't have your Skullcrack to counter it ! Or your opponent has fun to discard your hand (+1 Lili) or counter your spells or has fun to create values. You will win those games thanks to Risk factor, either Light up the stage which its 2 cards in exile.
I say you honestly, my version is really hard to pilot, thanks to those 8 Light up the stage and Risk factor. There are so many different sequences to do, it's amazing. Concretly, what to choose between do card advantage, anticipate your opponent's play, maximise swiftspear's damages, jam Eidolon asap, think about your next or your two next turns, play one drops instead of Eidolon, quickly burn your hand. What to choose after a LutS between play your reevealed cards, or do an other play, take a risk at letting one card staying exiled.
Burn becomes really interesting to play, rewarding you to do a correct sequence.
However I'm not fixed at all about those four slots, it's possible that I should need just two or none Risk factor. It is true that multiple Risk factors are clunky against (only) fast decks.
The rest is good. 20 Lightning bolts, 8 potential draw engines. That is fast, that is consistent, that is resilent. I respect pretty well the concept of 40 Lightning bolts-like. I will stick with mono red now, selling all my white cards and all my lands except basic mountains. I'm convinced. I didn't convinced my friend that sticks on Boros, anyway
Skullcrack and Searing blaze/blood are the natural replacment for the two or four remaining slots.
I don't like four Skullcrack because how it often is a two mana face burn, due to low lifegain maindeck present. A split 2 MB 2 Sb might be more correct.
I like Searing blaze in the sideboard with 20 mountains, especially on the draw because I have less the Landfall problem since I land naturally each turns. My opp has initiative to be on the play so a sorcery Blaze finds a target. I don't think Blaze is good in main board due to that.
I think that Searing blood looses more to more potential targets, Spirits are the perfect example, so it might be better to just work on Blaze.
Since I have had no issues at playing four drop-3 Risk factor with 4 Shard volley, I'm considering the spicy Ball lightning. It is a kill, no less. It just needs a good timing to not throw it on a Fatal pute/Bolt, outside of that, we don't care about blockers, kill them all. That's it !
I consider Ball lightning because there are no other Lightning bolts in red. I would not hesitate to jam Boros charm in white or Bump in the night in black, however I don't want anymore to splash.
I will be sad, for sure, if Leyline of sanctity will become 10+% of the metagame. For no, it's more the resurgence of creature toolbox and its Shalai, voice of plenty and Knight of autumn that are annoying. All good points for Ball lightning, that said
As of right now (Pre RNA), there basically isn't a single card in Burn that doesn't deal damage (Outside of the Sideboard). We run 20 1-drops (If we count Rift Bolt), and 20 2-drops (based on an average RWx deck).
We know that basically the only way we lose is to a Leyline of Sanctity, a deck that moves faster than us, and running out of gas (I include "bad draws" in Running Out of Gas).
Burn essentially wants 3 lands in play to maximize our play. Sometimes we get by on 2 lands, while other times we just flood out, which means we're not drawing burn.
When stuck on 2 lands, we want to be casting 1-drops to maximize damage per turn. 6 damage from 2 spells vs. 3 or 4 damage from one 2cmc spell.
I would argue that 2 drop spells are what most often screw over burn players; since we run so few lands, we really want our opening hand to have as many 1cmc spells as possible. A hand with 5 1cmc spells and 2 lands is already 15 damage (Not necessarily, but you get it), not even factoring in recurring damage from our creatures. A hand with 2cmc spells, some 1 cmc spells, and 2 lands, REALLY slows us down, since we have to decide if we want to be dealing 6 damage or 3/4 damage with our 2 mana, while the 3/4 damage spells clog up our mana and restrict our flexibility ("Do I want to throw this Lightning Helix at my OP or their creature?" vs. "Oh! I'll throw this Lava Spike at OP and my Lightning Bolt at their creature!").
Basically, we want to run as many 1cmc spells as possible. Skewer the Critics and Light Up the Stage are both 1cmc spells. I don't care what their actual cmc says, as long as we're running a critical mass of 1cmc burn spells, we'll always be able to trigger spectacle. This is not the case if we're running too many 2cmc spells, since we might use 2 mana on a Helix and not have mana left to trigger spectacle.
Now, onto Light Up the Stage: This is the grease in our burn engine that keeps us running efficiently. If we take out a 2cmc spell for LUtS, we'll still be triggering spectacle at a reliable rate, while also managing to either a) Make sure we make our land drops when necessary, or b) skim unwanted lands off our deck to ensure we keep drawing gas - and as long as our spells are 1cmc, there is a very good chance that with only 3 lands in play, we'll always be able to play a spell peeled off with LUtS. Even more, if we only have 2 lands in play, we can Bolt the OP, Spectacle LUtS, and if we exile a land and a 1cmc spell, we'll be able to play the land and the spell that turn (We can even play the land and play the spell during OP's turn, provided it s an instant).
Both these new spectacle spells together drastically lower the curve of our deck. It allows us to play the necessary critical mass of 1cmc spells, and it ensures that we always have gas to keep going.
GWUBRDraft my Old Border Nostalgia Cube! and/or The Little Pauper Cube That Could!RBUWG
Modern:WDeath & TaxesW | RUGRUG DelverRUG
| Ad Nauseam
| Infect
Big Johnny.
With draw 2, your outcomes are 1/9 to draw 0 spells, 4/9 to draw 1 spell, and 4/9 to draw 2 spells. LutS draws 1.33 Burn spells on average, but with some variance. It's worth 2 only 44% of the time. When you draw 1, you're basically adding a tax of R to that spell and that happens 44% of the time. That's too high for my liking.
With draw 3, it's 1/27 to draw 0, 2/9 to draw 1, 4/9 to draw 2, and 8/27 to draw 3. Treasure Cruise draws 2 Burn spells on average, also with some variance. It's worth more than 1 almost 75% of the time. I'm willing to pay a tax of 1/2U or 1/3U for the spells I draw, and the tax of U for 1 spell only happens 22% of the time.
Put another way, LutS has a 55% probability of what I consider to be bad outcomes (0 or 1 spell) because those outcomes imply that simply playing Lightning Strike in place of LutS would have been an equal or better outcome. TC has only a 25% of those same bad outcomes.
In order for me to accept that playing LUtS is worth it, I'd have to convince myself that "R: draw 2 lands" is a good outcome for the reason of "you just moved them off the top of the deck". At present, I regard that as a bad outcome. Think of it this way, instead of paying mana for a burn spell and drawing lands the next 2 turns, you pay mana to move 2 lands off you're deck and get a slightly higher probability to draw a non-land next draw step. The first situation may cause a loss, or it could cause a win if the burn spell you had instead of LUtS wins now.
I believe Rakdos is the best deck to take advantage of the card draw of LUTS, as it has the lowest curve and the quickest goldfish. Grim Lavamancer x 2 in the main is the only spot i'm slightly unsure of, and might consider skullcracks instead.
List:
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Goblin Guide
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Monastery Swiftspear
Spells
4 Bump in the Night
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Skewer the Critics
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Light Up the Stage
2 Searing Blaze
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Mountain
2 Ramunap Ruins
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Collective Brutality
3 Skullcrack
3 Smash to Smithereens
2 Fatal Push
2 Searing Blood
2 Searing Blaze
BG Rock
Modern:
RW Sun & Moon
RBG Dredge
RWG Burn
Legacy:
W Death & Taxes
GWUBRDraft my Old Border Nostalgia Cube! and/or The Little Pauper Cube That Could!RBUWG
Modern:WDeath & TaxesW | RUGRUG DelverRUG
What is your argument for Collective brutality ? How would you escalade it ?
I'm sorry, but I disagree on both counts. Rift Bolt is a great spectacle enabler, especially for awkward hands with multiple skewer the critics. As for Light Up The Stage, in my experience it compares favorably to thoughtcast. For both spells you basically dump your hand first, then replenish it with your one mana draw spell to have some reach. It's low cost and high yield enable you to fill your deck with 1 mana lightning bolts similar to how thoughtcast connects the dots between Ornithopter and Memnite and lethal damage on turn 3.
BG Rock
Modern:
RW Sun & Moon
RBG Dredge
RWG Burn
Legacy:
W Death & Taxes
I'm not willing to cut any bolt variants for a card just to hope to draw burn variants, especially given how friendly Rift Bolt is with Skewer the Critics (and would be with enabling LUtS). I think it's diluting the consistency of the deck far too much.
As a hypothetical, I offer a decklist.
4x Inspiring Vantage
2x Sacred Foundry
8x Fetches
4x Mountain
Creatures
4x Goblin Guide
4x Monastery Swiftspear
4x Eidolon of the Great Revel
Bolts
4x Lighting Bolt
4x Rift Bolt
4x Lava Spike
4x Skewer the Critics
2x Shard Volley
4x Skullcrack
4x Searing Blaze
1x Searing Blood
3x Light up the Stage
3x Path to Exile
2x Deflecting Palm
4x Ravenous Trap
1x Rest in Peace
4x Wear//Tear
1x Disenchant
The configuration shows some of my personal taste but the board and non-bolt spells are pretty flexible. The 4x Wear/Tear and 1x Disenchant can easily be 4x Smash to Smithereens and 1x Shattering Spree. I'm already seeing poor interaction between LotS and the sideboard though. It feels like stretching.
Just went 3-0 at a modern FNM. I played against tiered decks. Round 1 vs Titanshift, Round 2 vs UW Control and Round 3 vs Izzet Phoenix.
I played Skewer main and dropped Skullcrack to the sideboard.
I know its an FNM, but Skewer looked really good.
Just thought I would add a data point to your guys' discussion.
BGElvesBG and BUGNissa ElvesBUG Faithful Elfer since May 1st, 2015
Results: SCG IQ Top 8, Monthly Modern Masters Top 4
In my opinion:
Turn 1: You want to open with Guide/Swift if you can. Otherwise, Rift Bolt or Lava Spike (though such hands are problematic, though no one can blame you for keeping 2 lands, 3 bolts, 2 Charms or something).
Turn 2(option a): Hold your land, swing with your creature to bait removal, land+Eidolon on second main (if available).
Turn 2(option b): Otherwise, I'll often try to remove excess 2CMC cards from my hand at this stage so that I can play 2CMC+1CMC next turn. Searing Blaze things if it matters. Hold Skullcrack for now. Holding a Charm until your opponent's EoT is fine.
Turn 2(option c): If I can set up something busted like Rift+Rift+Bolt+Charm for a big Swiftspear next turn, I probably will try (because that's our easiest T3 kill).
Turn 3: Continue removing 2CMC and 3CMC cards from your hand as appropriate.
You know how your opponent always whines about your lucky topdecks? Plan on that happening and make sure you have the mana available to accomplish it. This means that you should fire off cards so that you aren't bottlenecked on mana with your next topdeck (as in you want to be able to hardcast Rift Bolt to win if you draw it). If you're heavy on white cards in hand and have a fetch available but no other open mana, burn a fetch for a tapped Sacred Foundry so that you'll be able to Charm+Helix if you have one in hand and topdeck the other.
I’d like to add to Turn 1:
If on the draw, always bolt the bird. If they drop birds of paradise, noble hierarch, or any other mana dork then that needs to go! Also applies to turn 1 Glistener Elf don’t mess around with those one drops, kill them as quick as you can.
Regarding Skewer:
I love this card. I put Skullcrack in the side to make room for it and havn’t been disappointed once. Skewer is an amazing and powerful card! I’ve won games with it that only a 1 mana bolt to the face would have, so having 4 in the deck over any other 2 drop is wonderful