nothing against doing your own research and by all means please do because the more people that do it the closer we get to figuring it all out but elcon already did this in the primer and if you look at the data 19 is probably your best option. Again I'm not trying to criticize or be rude or tell you not to do it but to try and save you some time from doing too many numbers we could try saying within 17221 that way you would use less time trying to figure out the other numbers because we know on the primer he use 18 to 20.I am glad that there are other people trying to investigate the right move so please do not take this in any way as me call you stupid or anything like that
Not at all! I appreciate the input. The reason I decided to do this is because, if I'm reading elcon's math correctly, it focuses more on opening hand statistics and doesn't try to take into account lategame flooding, which could potentially make us want to lower our land count. This isn't a failing on those stats; just a different question he was trying to answer. I wanted to see if the expected 18-20 land range stayed optimal when our turn 4 goldfishes were taken into account. The results stayed the same, which makes the calculations look identical, but it was actually two distinct questions we were asking. I also wanted to test for a wider spread of land counts, from 15-25, on the off chance the real best number of lands was far outside the realm of what we would expect (it wasn't).
Nice work, Creevy! There's definitely value in an independent verification. I'll read through it all and check out the spreadsheet when I have time. For the record, excel has a hyper-geometric function (at least Libreoffice does, called hypergeom or hypgeom or something).
Please do! I never claim to be a math person, this is my best attempt but I know this is your profession haha. I'd love to correct any mistakes you find.
Thanks Elcon and Tyler. Yeah that was the answer I figured (mono red not quite being there unless we shift gears on the deck), but it's always in the back of my mind with new sets if we can get closer to our Legacy brethren. Different format right?
I've been contemplating running Rb for bump which I think makes us more explosive or running Rg for atarka's command which is so versatile, but ultimately I think the toolbox white brings is so hard to ignore and pass up. That said, thanks for sharing your thoughts!
Again... I like the idea of mardu. I feel it gives us the fastest version of the deck with the most ways to deal with creatures or players with the most instants and keeps our sb options. The only issue I see with it is the amount of pain we cause ourselves with the mana base
Yeah I am also intrigued by Mardu. I think the more painful manabase might be worth it for being slightly faster and maxing out on one drops. Bump in the the night is a great card.
Is b. Charm rly worth it? Like... I'd rather run helix personally just on 2 reasons. If you hit an opponent, it's a 6 pt life swing, albeit the fetch shock comes out even, and it allows you to hit a creature which charm doesn't and there's fringe times I see the use of the other modes on charm.
I like Relic of Progenitus over Crypt and RiP, but I'd probably play RiP over Crypt.
I wouldn't place too much on the "6 point swing" of Helix, because it doesn't matter what your life total is at the end of the game, as long as your opponent is below 1. There's some value in Helix being able to hit creatures, but you're picking up some of those in Skewer already. I feel like I have enough burn spells that hit creatures when I need them to. For me, it comes down to 4 > 3, and there are situations I get in to where my opponent is at 7 and I need to kill them.
In a Mardu list running Bump in the Night, I think you should run only Blackcleave Cliffs as the fastlands, as you will sometimes need that untapped black source on turn one more than an untapped white source.
I am tempted by crypt only because it is free so I can still play spell on turn 2.
I agree with elcon about Boros charm. I prefer the 4 damage to 3. I rarely, if ever target creatures with helix. And when I do they are games I am probably already losing.
As for the fastlands, the singleton inspiring vantage is only in there because I don’t have the 4th cliffs yet. Totally agree that mardu wants r/b fastlands.
Is b. Charm rly worth it? Like... I'd rather run helix personally just on 2 reasons. If you hit an opponent, it's a 6 pt life swing, albeit the fetch shock comes out even, and it allows you to hit a creature which charm doesn't and there's fringe times I see the use of the other modes on charm.
The 4 point damage from Charm is really important in a lot of matches with opponent sitting at 7. That's why I was originally asking about Exquisite Firecraft as a mono red replacement option. I also think it's really important to note as well that the indestructible mode on Charm is an important loss if we remove the card. I've won several matches (most notably against Storm) where my opponent life totals were low and bolts were being thrown at Eidolon. Keeping him alive and preventing looting and/or copying shenanigans can be a deciding factor in a game. This is assuming we stay Rw of course because I do think Rb is a solid list of spells.
That’s why I think mardu is where it’s at. Access to the most efficient burn spells and best sb cards (other than drev but almost no one plays white leylines). Bump in the night and boros charm are the best non-mono red burn spells
This is probably crazy, but...
Is it possible that a Mardu version of the deck at 19 lands wants a 1 of Mana Confluence in place of a shockland? I haven't built a 3 color mana base for this deck ever. Just thinking that a mana confluence would allow us to keep more 1 and 2 land hands without the need to mulligan. Assuming we are using the shockland untapped, that is equal to 2 turns of use vs. mana confluence. If it's only a 1 of, we can save it for our last land in hand when need be. It could help in some fringe situations where you need to cast 2 bump in the nights in the same turn, or boros charm plus path to exile.
I'm sure there are some math wizards out there who could help figure out if this helps with our mulligans and gameplay. Haven't tested this. Considering the deck should become faster with the addition of Skewer the Critics, could this land be more helpful and less painful than it looks?
This is probably crazy, but...
Is it possible that a Mardu version of the deck at 19 lands wants a 1 of Mana Confluence in place of a shockland? I haven't built a 3 color mana base for this deck ever. Just thinking that a mana confluence would allow us to keep more 1 and 2 land hands without the need to mulligan. Assuming we are using the shockland untapped, that is equal to 2 turns of use vs. mana confluence. If it's only a 1 of, we can save it for our last land in hand when need be. It could help in some fringe situations where you need to cast 2 bump in the nights in the same turn, or boros charm plus path to exile.
I'm sure there are some math wizards out there who could help figure out if this helps with our mulligans and gameplay. Haven't tested this. Considering the deck should become faster with the addition of Skewer the Critics, could this land be more helpful and less painful than it looks?
I don't think I'd run it personally. Without the ability to fetch it when you need it and having to pay mana when you don't need it makes it unreliable in my opinion.
This is probably crazy, but...
Is it possible that a Mardu version of the deck at 19 lands wants a 1 of Mana Confluence in place of a shockland? I haven't built a 3 color mana base for this deck ever. Just thinking that a mana confluence would allow us to keep more 1 and 2 land hands without the need to mulligan. Assuming we are using the shockland untapped, that is equal to 2 turns of use vs. mana confluence. If it's only a 1 of, we can save it for our last land in hand when need be. It could help in some fringe situations where you need to cast 2 bump in the nights in the same turn, or boros charm plus path to exile.
I'm sure there are some math wizards out there who could help figure out if this helps with our mulligans and gameplay. Haven't tested this. Considering the deck should become faster with the addition of Skewer the Critics, could this land be more helpful and less painful than it looks?
If I were to go for a rainbow land in my manabase, I would personally go for Gemstone mine. The downside is there, but there's a lot of games where I was able to deal with it and no life loss is absolutely fantastic when racing. with that being said, It cannot be fetched and I Still would not recommend it over just running more shocklands unless you're trying to go four colors.
When I played with atarka's command, I typically had 3 mountains, 2 sacred foundry, 2 stomping ground, 1 vantage (when vantage came out, before that it was a third foundry), and 11 fetches. There isn't much room for fast lands in a 3 color deck, since shaving fetches can be bad and shaving mountains is also tough. I think main deck colors demand 2 shocks minimum so that you can fetch for the color you need. You could play 10 fetches and 2 fast lands, but I'd worry about going to 9 or 8 fetches.
ARGHH!!! We are this close to having an actually playable mono-red list it's not even funny! Like, the first 56 or so cards write themselves, but I just can't figure out what else to play without splashing any color(s).
Do you think it is worth playing a real 3 colour deck to be slightly more explosive at the cost of a more painful manabase? Or is RW still optimal because it is less painful?
I really like the idea of playing Bump & Boros Charm but when I just looked up colour requirements playing three colours has a real cost. Like you said 10 fetches minimum and the likelihood of fetch+shocking twice per match to reliably cast spells.
ARGHH!!! We are this close to having an actually playable mono-red list it's not even funny! Like, the first 56 or so cards write themselves, but I just can't figure out what else to play without splashing any color(s).
Please do! I never claim to be a math person, this is my best attempt but I know this is your profession haha. I'd love to correct any mistakes you find.
I've been contemplating running Rb for bump which I think makes us more explosive or running Rg for atarka's command which is so versatile, but ultimately I think the toolbox white brings is so hard to ignore and pass up. That said, thanks for sharing your thoughts!
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Bump in the Night
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Shard Volley
4 Boros Charm
4 Searing Blaze
4 Rift Bolt
4 Skewer the Critics
1 Arid Mesa
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Inspiring Vantage
2 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
4 Wooded Foothills
Sideboard
3 Tormod's Crypt
3 Path to Exile
3 Searing Blood
3 Skullcrack
2 Smash to Smithereens
1 Exquisite Firecraft
I wouldn't place too much on the "6 point swing" of Helix, because it doesn't matter what your life total is at the end of the game, as long as your opponent is below 1. There's some value in Helix being able to hit creatures, but you're picking up some of those in Skewer already. I feel like I have enough burn spells that hit creatures when I need them to. For me, it comes down to 4 > 3, and there are situations I get in to where my opponent is at 7 and I need to kill them.
I am tempted by crypt only because it is free so I can still play spell on turn 2.
I agree with elcon about Boros charm. I prefer the 4 damage to 3. I rarely, if ever target creatures with helix. And when I do they are games I am probably already losing.
As for the fastlands, the singleton inspiring vantage is only in there because I don’t have the 4th cliffs yet. Totally agree that mardu wants r/b fastlands.
The 4 point damage from Charm is really important in a lot of matches with opponent sitting at 7. That's why I was originally asking about Exquisite Firecraft as a mono red replacement option. I also think it's really important to note as well that the indestructible mode on Charm is an important loss if we remove the card. I've won several matches (most notably against Storm) where my opponent life totals were low and bolts were being thrown at Eidolon. Keeping him alive and preventing looting and/or copying shenanigans can be a deciding factor in a game. This is assuming we stay Rw of course because I do think Rb is a solid list of spells.
Is it possible that a Mardu version of the deck at 19 lands wants a 1 of Mana Confluence in place of a shockland? I haven't built a 3 color mana base for this deck ever. Just thinking that a mana confluence would allow us to keep more 1 and 2 land hands without the need to mulligan. Assuming we are using the shockland untapped, that is equal to 2 turns of use vs. mana confluence. If it's only a 1 of, we can save it for our last land in hand when need be. It could help in some fringe situations where you need to cast 2 bump in the nights in the same turn, or boros charm plus path to exile.
I'm sure there are some math wizards out there who could help figure out if this helps with our mulligans and gameplay. Haven't tested this. Considering the deck should become faster with the addition of Skewer the Critics, could this land be more helpful and less painful than it looks?
I don't think I'd run it personally. Without the ability to fetch it when you need it and having to pay mana when you don't need it makes it unreliable in my opinion.
(W/B)BW Tokens(W/B) | (B/R)Rakdos Burn(B/R) | (U/R)Gift Storm(U/R)
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Goblin Guide
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Skewer the critics
4 Skullcrack
4 Searing Blaze
Lands (18)
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Arid Mesa
6 Mountain
I really didn't think another set of pseudo-bolts would give me such a pitiful deckbuilder's crisis...
Are we really doomed to splash white for Boros charm (and several other relevant sideboard cards) and/or black for Bump in the night for eternity?
(W/B)BW Tokens(W/B) | (B/R)Rakdos Burn(B/R) | (U/R)Gift Storm(U/R)
Legacy has Wasteland as a reason to play mono R, and white sideboard cards aren't very important there.
Do you think it is worth playing a real 3 colour deck to be slightly more explosive at the cost of a more painful manabase? Or is RW still optimal because it is less painful?
I really like the idea of playing Bump & Boros Charm but when I just looked up colour requirements playing three colours has a real cost. Like you said 10 fetches minimum and the likelihood of fetch+shocking twice per match to reliably cast spells.
http://www.starcitygames.com/decks/starcitygamescom_Open/2019-01-12_Modern_Worcester
It is painful how real this almost is. I want it so bad.