I'm still waiting on clarification on how playing tight is both laughable and proper strategy.
Nothing I said has proven you correct. When people play Burn and lose, the easy answer for why they lost is "I flooded", but it's not necessarily correct. That player does themselves a disservice by attributing all losses to uncontrollable random processes rather than critically evaluating their own play. That means evaluating your sequencing, did you tap out and block a skullcrack in your hand and they played finks, did you waste a spell on a creature and cause your own clock to get slower, did you trap yourself with too few white sources in play for what was in your hand, etc. Some of those situations manifest as the easy answer of "I would have won if I drew another spell" when the real answer is "I lost because I made a mistake". This is why I've said that one way you minimize the probability of running out of gas is through tight play, and you somehow found that "laughable".
The real answer might be flooding, and it's OK if that is the real answer. You minimize that with deck building and you should be able to accept that undesirable outcomes still happen. You minimize that by playing few lands, efficient and redundant spells, and efficient creatures. A draw spell that is stellar could fit into that mix (TC did it), but an expensive punisher card doesn't fit the bill of "stellar draw spell". Building bad outs to bad situations into your deck doesn't make your deck better. What if my opponent is at 8 life and I have 9 land in play late in the game? Obviously I want Fireball to be my only card in hand at that point, and I certainly wouldn't want lightning bolt! That's ridiculous, but it's effectively the argument you have for why Risk Factor is necessary. I've lost that game of I find myself in that situation and I've lost it because I made several mistakes along the way. I shouldn't go designing bad ways to win unwinnable situations and as a result start losing otherwise winnable games because of it.
Feel free to learn about the hypergeomtric function if you feel inclined. I don't feel compelled to assist you in doing it after your repeated hostile comments towards me. Here's a useful site, though: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
I'm not testing it because I've been playing the game for a long enough time to be able to evaluate a lot of cards. I get annoyed enough that I see searing blaze game one against Tron sometimes, but I accept that its such a house against humans. Here's the best way I can say it:
Does it improve any matchups in a significant way? No, because when I lose to midrange it tends to be very close. If they are taking four then winning on the counterattack, I was going to lose no matter what I drew. If they let me draw, it means I only need one burn spell to win. In that case, I'd rather have the redundancy of bolts anyways, especially because two and three land games are pretty common. "Oh but if they are at three and you draw swiftspear you lose." Yes, that's true. It's also a card game with variance. Sometimes you get the draw, sometimes you don't. You could cast this thing, draw three, and they are all lands. ***** happens.
While I was on the side of Risk Factor, I must say this is the smartest assessment of the card thus far. However, you are not considering the Jump-Start side of the card, so I guess what I'm saying is sure, Risk Factor is worse than a regular burn spell when played from hand, but is it worth playing that card just to have castable copy in the graveyard?
In my opinion, this card is similar to Shrine of Burning Rage. It worked for a GP winner, it worked for a lot of people, and it was a pretty good card, but it just wasn't optimal, which then made it bad. I've tested The Flame of Keld (don't judge), and I was happy with its results, but I was happier with the stock Burn list. The same thing happened with Vexing Devil, which is also good, but not good enough.
I'm sorry, but I'm changing my vote to against Risk Factor. I'm still going to give it the benefit of the doubt and test it though.
Easy there, Risk Factor is there to pack more value, not to allow you to mulligan poorly. While I still think it's possible that Risk Factor gets played, it definitely isn't possible that 4-landers suddenly become keeps. Also you're going to crazy on anti-lifegain in your sideboard with Leyline of Punishment, I think you may have had a few too many bad games, but stick with Skullcrack. As for Satyr Firedancer, just play Searing Blood; the creature's too slow.
With the addition of the new Assassin’s Trophy and the existing prevalence of Path to Exile, how does anybody feel about adding Shard Volley to the main deck? Since we will be getting extra lands handed to us more often now.
As far as the matchup spotlight, I'm working on concentrating the Humans stuff to update the primer. Did anyone have any experiences against humans the last 2 weeks?
UW control is next. It was a tie between kci and bant spirits for third, so I'll either put up a runoff between them or flip a coin and put up the next poll for whatever will be 5th.
With the addition of the new Assassin’s Trophy and the existing prevalence of Path to Exile, how does anybody feel about adding Shard Volley to the main deck? Since we will be getting extra lands handed to us more often now.
I wouldn't go too crazy with that quite yet. Trophy looks more and more to me like a card that would be boarded out against us. I am considering upping my basic count from three to four, though. Then again, I also run nineteen lands. If you are on a twenty land build, dropping a searing blaze or rift bolt for a shard valley may make more sense.
@elconquistador - I haven't actually played in a couple of weeks. My last humans matchup is the one I depicted in the pptq report from a month back.
I don't think risk factor is a bad card to have against control decks in the sideboard if you want to try 1-2
Private Mod Note
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I'm actively maintaining a comprehensive article to help explain to new cube players how some complex vintage level cards work in a cube environment. Vintage Cube Cards Explained
With the addition of the new Assassin’s Trophy and the existing prevalence of Path to Exile, how does anybody feel about adding Shard Volley to the main deck? Since we will be getting extra lands handed to us more often now.
From my understanding, in legacy half of the format plays wastelands. I've noticed the decks in that format do not increase their land count to mitigate wastelands (look at legaxy jund, burn, Merfolk etc).
Therefore, my answer to this question is, I wouldn't readjust the number of lands into consideration for assassin. (The only thing I would do is maybe affinity in modern should try to play 2 basics instead of 1)
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I'm actively maintaining a comprehensive article to help explain to new cube players how some complex vintage level cards work in a cube environment. Vintage Cube Cards Explained
As far as the matchup spotlight, I'm working on concentrating the Humans stuff to update the primer. Did anyone have any experiences against humans the last 2 weeks?
UW control is next. It was a tie between kci and bant spirits for third, so I'll either put up a runoff between them or flip a coin and put up the next poll for whatever will be 5th.
I don't know if this will be of much help, but I find that Grim Lavamancer is the card that wins the most games. Even though it doesn't kill all their best creatures, it frees up their hatebears effects like Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter, so that we can kill stuff like Mantis Rider. I've won mostly by playing around these hatebears effects, which are the only things I've been really concerned about. Also, I know that some of my humans opponents have been siding out AEther Vial against me, so there's no need to bring in artifact hate or to side out Eidolon.
Everything else I can contribute I'm sure everyone else knows already knows.
September 2018 opposing hate analysis
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The deck population is 588 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection. Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
1.895 0.877 0.11054 Humans
1.000 0.250 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.036 0.667 0.07143 WU Control
1.067 0.652 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.200 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.000 0.009 0.01190 Other
1.000 1.000 0.00510 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 1.000 0.00510 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.048 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.200 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.333 0.005 0.00680 Other
1.500 1.000 0.00680 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.061 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
2.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.024 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
1.250 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.250 0.533 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.000 0.200 0.01701 Elves
1.000 0.250 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.030 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
4.000 1.000 0.00510 Eldrazi Tron
4.000 0.375 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
3.167 0.010 0.01020 Other
2.000 0.024 0.07143 Burn
4.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.043 0.03912 Affinity
1.750 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.952 0.955 0.03741 Hollow One
2.062 1.000 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
2.143 1.000 0.01190 Abzan
1.750 1.000 0.00680 8-Rack
1.500 0.235 0.02891 Bridgevine
2.667 1.000 0.00510 BGx Midrange
1.500 0.667 0.00510 Lantern Control
1.000 0.083 0.04082 Jund
1.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.333 0.00510 Mill
1.000 0.100 0.01701 UBR Death's Shadow
1.429 0.012 0.01531 Other
1.700 0.833 0.04082 Jund
1.273 0.688 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
1.889 0.529 0.02891 Bridgevine
1.833 0.600 0.01701 UBR Death's Shadow
1.000 0.571 0.01190 Abzan
2.000 1.000 0.00510 Dredge
1.333 0.136 0.03741 Hollow One
2.000 0.667 0.00510 Lantern Control
2.000 0.100 0.01701 Elves
2.000 0.333 0.00510 Mill
1.500 0.017 0.01871 Other
1.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
2.000 0.250 0.00680 8-Rack
1.000 0.100 0.01701 UBR Death's Shadow
1.500 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.000 0.267 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.000 0.042 0.04082 Jund
2.500 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.000 0.250 0.00680 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.667 0.00510 Mill
1.000 0.667 0.00510 Mill
3.095 1.000 0.07143 WU Control
3.609 1.000 0.03912 WUR Control
3.000 1.000 0.00850 UW Miracles
3.000 1.000 0.00510 Blue Moon
3.130 0.039 0.03912 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00680 Merfolk
4.000 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
3.667 0.750 0.00680 Merfolk
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
2.000 0.333 0.00510 Blue Moon
2.000 0.976 0.07143 WU Control
1.739 1.000 0.03912 WUR Control
1.500 0.545 0.01871 UG Infect
2.000 1.000 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.667 1.000 0.00510 Blue Moon
1.500 0.250 0.01361 UR Gifts Storm
2.000 0.250 0.00680 Uw Spirits
3.000 0.333 0.00510 Mill
2.000 0.250 0.00680 Merfolk
2.000 0.333 0.00510 URG Gifts Storm
1.000 0.030 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.786 0.048 0.04762 Other
2.000 0.024 0.07143 Burn
1.000 0.045 0.03741 Hollow One
3.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.300 0.01701 Elves
4.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
3.538 0.867 0.02551 KCI Combo
4.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.167 0.01020 Amulet Titan
4.000 0.002 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.417 0.04082 Jund
1.000 0.015 0.11054 Humans
1.750 0.007 0.00680 Other
2.133 1.000 0.02551 KCI Combo
1.000 1.000 0.00510 Lantern Control
1.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.750 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.000 0.333 0.00510 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.333 0.125 0.04082 Jund
1.000 0.667 0.00510 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.250 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.176 0.262 0.11054 Humans
1.867 0.938 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
1.333 0.750 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.200 0.02551 Vizier Company
2.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.250 0.00680 8-Rack
1.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
3.667 0.400 0.02551 Vizier Company
2.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.333 0.500 0.04082 Jund
3.000 0.273 0.01871 UG Infect
2.000 0.067 0.02551 Vizier Company
2.000 0.030 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.800 0.009 0.00850 Other
2.056 0.429 0.07143 Burn
2.000 0.750 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.024 0.07143 WU Control
2.000 0.030 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
2.000 0.002 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.015 0.11054 Humans
1.000 0.031 0.11054 Humans
3.667 0.818 0.01871 Bogles
4.000 1.000 0.00680 Ad Nauseam
2.500 0.364 0.01871 Bogles
2.333 1.000 0.00510 Lantern Control
3.000 0.500 0.00680 WRG Titanshift
3.000 0.250 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
3.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
3.333 0.005 0.00850 Other
3.878 0.976 0.07143 Burn
2.950 0.870 0.03912 WUR Control
3.000 0.200 0.00850 UW Miracles
3.375 0.014 0.01361 Other
2.000 0.048 0.07143 Burn
1.000 0.087 0.03912 WUR Control
2.000 0.062 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.476 1.000 0.07143 WU Control
2.826 1.000 0.03912 WUR Control
2.000 1.000 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Blue Moon
1.786 0.024 0.02381 Other
2.000 0.667 0.00510 Blue Moon
1.250 0.007 0.00850 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.031 0.762 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.435 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 1.000 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.000 0.010 0.01190 Other
1.118 0.810 0.07143 WU Control
1.167 0.261 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.600 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.333 0.020 0.02211 Other
3.970 1.000 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
4.000 1.000 0.00680 Uw Spirits
4.000 1.000 0.00510 Bant Spirits
4.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.282 0.929 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.739 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.600 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Blue Moon
1.125 0.014 0.01361 Other
1.206 0.810 0.07143 WU Control
1.263 0.826 0.03912 WUR Control
2.444 0.600 0.02551 KCI Combo
1.750 0.121 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.500 0.800 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.667 0.130 0.03912 Affinity
1.500 0.500 0.00680 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.250 0.01361 UR Gifts Storm
3.000 0.067 0.02551 Vizier Company
4.000 0.333 0.00510 Mill
3.000 0.250 0.00680 Merfolk
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Blue Moon
1.421 0.032 0.03401 Other
1.000 0.024 0.07143 WU Control
2.833 0.010 0.01190 Other
1.500 1.000 0.01020 Amulet Titan
2.250 1.000 0.00680 RG Titanshift
2.667 1.000 0.00510 BRG Titanshift
1.333 1.000 0.00510 BGx Midrange
2.333 0.750 0.00680 WRG Titanshift
1.000 0.042 0.04082 Jund
1.875 0.014 0.01531 Other
1.040 0.595 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.000 0.119 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
3.000 1.000 0.00680 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.667 0.01020 Amulet Titan
1.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.000 1.000 0.00680 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.333 0.01020 Amulet Titan
2.000 0.007 0.00850 Other
1.000 0.609 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.667 0.01531 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.800 0.00850 Hardened Modular
1.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00680 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.000 1.000 0.01020 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
2.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.250 1.000 0.01361 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.143 0.07143 WU Control
1.333 1.000 0.00510 URG Gifts Storm
3.333 1.000 0.00510 Blue Moon
2.000 0.250 0.00680 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
3.267 0.026 0.02551 Other
2.750 1.000 0.04082 Jund
1.167 0.800 0.02551 Vizier Company
2.286 1.000 0.01190 Abzan
3.000 1.000 0.00510 BGx Midrange
1.800 0.017 0.01871 Other
1.000 0.467 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.333 0.600 0.01701 Elves
1.000 0.500 0.00680 WRG Titanshift
1.000 0.250 0.00680 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.042 0.04082 Jund
1.333 0.005 0.00680 Other
4.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.000 0.600 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.000 0.200 0.02551 Vizier Company
2.000 0.857 0.01190 Abzan
2.250 1.000 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
3.000 0.571 0.01190 Abzan
1.500 0.545 0.01871 UG Infect
2.000 0.500 0.00680 Merfolk
1.400 0.009 0.01361 Other
1.556 0.818 0.01871 UG Infect
2.000 1.000 0.01020 Amulet Titan
2.000 0.133 0.02551 KCI Combo
1.500 0.087 0.03912 Affinity
2.000 0.250 0.00680 Uw Spirits
1.800 0.009 0.00850 Other
1.000 0.452 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.261 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Blue Moon
1.000 0.200 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.357 0.024 0.02551 Other
2.000 0.333 0.00510 Blue Moon
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.182 0.01871 UG Infect
1.000 0.067 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.000 0.043 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.286 0.636 0.01871 UG Infect
1.000 0.304 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.278 0.03061 G Tron
1.000 0.200 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.500 0.031 0.11054 Humans
1.000 0.100 0.01701 Elves
1.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Blue Moon
2.000 0.015 0.01871 Other
2.900 1.000 0.01701 UBR Death's Shadow
4.000 0.087 0.03912 Affinity
2.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.111 0.900 0.01701 UBR Death's Shadow
1.833 0.261 0.03912 Affinity
4.000 0.111 0.01531 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Lantern Control
1.000 0.167 0.01020 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
2.000 0.333 0.02551 KCI Combo
1.000 0.167 0.01020 Amulet Titan
2.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.250 0.00680 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.167 0.01020 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
2.778 1.000 0.03061 G Tron
1.500 0.667 0.00510 BRG Titanshift
1.500 0.500 0.00680 WRG Titanshift
1.000 0.167 0.01020 Amulet Titan
1.667 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.000 0.500 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.600 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.200 0.009 0.01020 Other
1.342 0.905 0.07143 WU Control
1.071 0.609 0.03912 WUR Control
1.250 0.800 0.00850 UW Miracles
3.000 0.250 0.00680 8-Rack
1.000 0.143 0.01190 Abzan
1.571 0.012 0.01190 Other
1.778 1.000 0.03061 G Tron
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.100 0.01701 Elves
1.000 0.167 0.01020 Amulet Titan
1.333 0.273 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
2.136 0.667 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
2.000 0.200 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.667 1.000 0.00510 Bant Spirits
2.000 0.250 0.00680 Uw Spirits
2.000 0.009 0.00850 Other
3.889 0.391 0.03912 Affinity
1.500 0.333 0.03061 G Tron
2.000 0.375 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.667 0.00510 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.111 0.01531 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.200 0.00850 Hardened Modular
2.000 0.043 0.03912 Affinity
3.000 1.000 0.03061 G Tron
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Eldrazi Tron
2.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.200 0.02551 KCI Combo
1.000 0.003 0.00510 Other
1.000 0.500 0.01020 Amulet Titan
Card fractions: This is averaged over the whole meta and is the fraction of decks that play the card in the maindeck/sideboard without taking into account how many copies they play. These give a general idea of what cards to expect from a randomly chosen deck. Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (16.33%), Logic Knot (14.46%), Lightning Helix (11.90%), Collective Brutality (11.73%), Negate (11.56%), Scavenging Ooze (9.52%), Mana Leak (9.35%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Cryptic Command (17.67%), Logic Knot (14.44%), Lightning Helix (12.44%), Scavenging Ooze (10.75%), Collective Brutality (10.45%), Negate (10.14%), Remand (9.37%).
Hate cards by meta decks: Go here if you want to see what kind of hate cards specific decks play.
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Meta composition: This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name. Some of these deck names might be fuzzy, so the results are approximate.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
11.05% Humans
7.14% Burn
7.14% WU Control
5.61% Goodstuff 3c
4.08% Jund
3.91% WUR Control
3.91% Affinity
3.74% Hollow One
3.06% G Tron
2.89% Bridgevine
2.72% Mardu Pyromancer
2.55% Vizier Company
2.55% KCI Combo
1.87% UG Infect
1.87% Bogles
1.70% Elves
1.70% UBR Death's Shadow
1.53% Hardened Scales
1.36% Eldrazi Aggro
1.36% UR Gifts Storm
1.19% Abzan
1.02% Amulet Titan
0.85% Hardened Modular
0.85% UW Miracles
0.68% RG Titanshift
0.68% Uw Spirits
0.68% Eldrazi and Taxes
0.68% Merfolk
0.68% 8-Rack
0.68% Ad Nauseam
0.68% WRG Titanshift
0.51% Eldrazi Tron
0.51% BRG Titanshift
0.51% Mill
0.51% BGx Midrange
0.51% Dredge
0.51% Lantern Control
0.51% URG Gifts Storm
0.51% Bant Spirits
0.51% Blue Moon
0.34% WUB Control
0.34% Grishoalbrand
0.34% Living End
0.34% UR Delver
0.34% Skred Dragons
0.34% Artifact Prison
0.34% Uw
0.34% WRG Hatebears
0.34% UR Control
0.34% Mono Red Prison
0.34% URG Control
0.34% UBG Infect
0.17% Grixis Midrange
0.17% Gr Ponza
0.17% WB Hatebears
0.17% WR Kiki-Resto
0.17% Death and Taxes
0.17% Domain Zoo
0.17% WURG Copycat
0.17% Jeskai Control
0.17% Jeskai Tempo
0.17% WB Control
0.17% Mono Blue Faeries
0.17% Kiln Fiend Red
0.17% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.17% Harden Scales
0.17% URG Delver
0.17% WUG Infect
0.17% Monogreen Belcher
0.17% Sligh
0.17% Amulet Combo
0.17% UR Pyromancer
0.17% UB Control
0.17% WUG Hatebears
0.17% Selesnya Value
0.17% Ur Swans
0.17% Rg Land Loss
0.17% Uw Miracle
0.17% Gruul Zoo
0.17% Kiln Fiend
0.17% Melira Company
0.17% Breach Titan
0.17% Gw Company
0.17% Ponza
0.17% Hardned Scales
0.17% Cthulu Dance Party
0.17% Skred Red
0.17% WURG Control
0.17% Bant Company
0.17% Mono U Tron
0.17% URG Scapeshift
0.17% Mono White Martyr
0.17% WRG Kiki-Resto
0.17% 8 Whack
0.17% Gw Good Taste
0.17% Rakdos Aggro
0.17% Ur Lanternless
0.17% Boros Life-burn
0.17% Instant Reanimator
0.17% Modular Scales
0.17% UBR Control
0.17% WUBR Control
0.17% Bant
0.17% Mono Green Aggro
0.17% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.17% Uw Control
0.17% Spirit Aggro
0.17% Jeskai Conrol
0.17% Martyr Proc
0.17% Ub Faeries
0.17% Gifts 3c
0.17% Ur Breach
0.17% Rg Ponza
0.17% WURG Kiki-Resto
0.17% WUG Control
0.17% Mono Red 8-moon
Enchantments:
Total decks 588
1.333 0.130 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.083 0.04082 Jund
1.000 0.250 0.00680 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.059 0.02891 Bridgevine
1.857 0.012 0.01361 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
4.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.087 0.03912 Affinity
2.125 1.000 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
2.333 1.000 0.00510 Blue Moon
3.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
3.000 0.029 0.02891 Other
1.333 0.130 0.03912 Affinity
1.333 0.136 0.03741 Hollow One
1.000 0.125 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
2.500 0.667 0.00510 URG Gifts Storm
1.750 0.007 0.01020 Other
4.000 1.000 0.02891 Bridgevine
1.250 0.364 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
3.000 0.048 0.07143 Burn
1.400 0.208 0.04082 Jund
1.500 0.400 0.01701 Elves
1.000 0.133 0.02551 Vizier Company
2.000 0.125 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.143 0.01190 Abzan
2.000 0.043 0.03912 Affinity
1.667 0.005 0.00850 Other
1.000 0.267 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.000 0.042 0.04082 Jund
2.500 0.007 0.00680 Other
1.000 0.250 0.00680 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
4.000 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
1.054 0.881 0.07143 WU Control
1.500 0.800 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
1.286 0.012 0.01190 Other
1.750 0.121 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.024 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.071 0.933 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.000 0.250 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.030 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.250 0.014 0.01531 Other
4.000 0.976 0.07143 Burn
2.000 0.024 0.07143 Burn
4.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
3.333 0.130 0.03912 Affinity
4.000 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.522 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.889 0.01531 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.800 0.00850 Hardened Modular
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.217 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.222 0.01531 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.400 0.00850 Hardened Modular
2.500 0.667 0.00510 Mill
1.375 0.533 0.02551 KCI Combo
1.714 0.304 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.333 0.00510 Lantern Control
2.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.400 0.909 0.01871 Bogles
4.000 0.609 0.03912 Affinity
4.000 1.000 0.01531 Hardened Scales
4.000 1.000 0.00850 Hardened Modular
4.000 0.005 0.00510 Other
3.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
2.364 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.333 0.00510 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.042 0.04082 Jund
1.000 0.043 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
1.000 0.010 0.01020 Other
2.000 0.500 0.00680 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
3.667 0.818 0.01871 Bogles
4.000 1.000 0.00680 Ad Nauseam
2.500 0.364 0.01871 Bogles
2.333 1.000 0.00510 Lantern Control
3.000 0.500 0.00680 WRG Titanshift
3.000 0.250 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
3.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
3.333 0.005 0.00850 Other
4.000 0.059 0.02891 Bridgevine
3.684 0.864 0.03741 Hollow One
4.000 0.824 0.02891 Bridgevine
3.571 0.292 0.04082 Jund
3.833 0.375 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
3.667 0.750 0.00680 8-Rack
1.000 0.091 0.01871 UG Infect
4.000 0.333 0.00510 Mill
4.000 0.100 0.01701 UBR Death's Shadow
3.667 0.005 0.00850 Other
1.000 0.048 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.091 0.01871 UG Infect
1.500 0.667 0.00510 Mill
1.000 0.143 0.01190 Abzan
1.000 0.042 0.04082 Jund
3.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
2.000 0.143 0.01190 Abzan
4.000 1.000 0.00680 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.071 0.07143 WU Control
1.500 0.667 0.00510 Lantern Control
1.000 0.002 0.00340 Other
1.000 0.750 0.00680 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.667 0.00510 URG Gifts Storm
1.000 0.030 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
4.000 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
1.889 0.818 0.01871 UG Infect
2.000 0.007 0.01020 Other
2.000 0.015 0.11054 Humans
2.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
2.056 0.857 0.07143 WU Control
2.394 1.000 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.966 0.690 0.07143 Burn
2.000 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
2.200 0.217 0.03912 WUR Control
2.000 1.000 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.800 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.500 0.062 0.11054 Humans
1.333 0.300 0.01701 Elves
2.000 0.750 0.00680 Uw Spirits
1.667 0.750 0.00680 WRG Titanshift
2.667 1.000 0.00510 Bant Spirits
2.000 0.130 0.03912 Affinity
2.000 0.250 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.789 0.032 0.03231 Other
1.000 0.087 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.024 0.07143 WU Control
1.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.143 0.01190 Abzan
1.000 0.043 0.03912 WUR Control
2.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
2.333 0.818 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.667 0.00510 Lantern Control
1.000 0.091 0.01871 UG Infect
1.333 0.005 0.00510 Other
1.600 0.952 0.07143 WU Control
2.000 0.913 0.03912 WUR Control
2.000 1.000 0.00850 UW Miracles
1.500 0.667 0.00510 Mill
1.667 0.015 0.01701 Other
1.333 0.600 0.01701 Elves
1.833 0.545 0.01871 UG Infect
1.000 0.111 0.01531 Hardened Scales
1.000 0.200 0.00850 Hardened Modular
1.500 0.003 0.00340 Other
3.500 1.000 0.00680 8-Rack
2.000 0.250 0.00680 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
3.727 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.182 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.727 0.01871 Bogles
2.000 0.909 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.067 0.02551 Vizier Company
4.000 1.000 0.00680 Merfolk
4.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
3.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.030 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
2.000 0.929 0.07143 WU Control
2.576 1.000 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.833 0.522 0.03912 WUR Control
2.364 1.000 0.01871 Bogles
1.500 0.190 0.07143 Burn
1.875 0.123 0.11054 Humans
2.667 0.857 0.01190 Abzan
2.200 1.000 0.00850 UW Miracles
2.250 1.000 0.00680 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.750 0.00680 Uw Spirits
1.667 0.200 0.02551 Vizier Company
3.000 1.000 0.00510 Bant Spirits
1.500 0.200 0.01701 Elves
2.500 0.250 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
1.500 0.125 0.02721 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.500 0.00680 WRG Titanshift
2.143 0.048 0.04932 Other
2.000 0.002 0.00170 Other
1.000 0.087 0.03912 Affinity
1.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
1.333 0.273 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
4.000 0.009 0.00850 Other
1.500 0.500 0.00680 8-Rack
1.200 0.455 0.01871 UG Infect
1.000 0.091 0.01871 Bogles
1.000 0.003 0.00340 Other
1.500 0.545 0.05612 Goodstuff 3c
1.625 0.533 0.02551 Vizier Company
1.333 0.750 0.00680 Uw Spirits
1.500 0.250 0.01361 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.667 0.00510 Bant Spirits
1.000 0.143 0.01190 Abzan
1.400 0.009 0.00850 Other
Maindeck: The top cards are Search for Azcanta (13.10%), Detention Sphere (8.33%), Eidolon of the Great Revel (6.97%), Blood Moon (6.29%), Hardened Scales (5.27%), Evolutionary Leap (4.25%), Rancor (4.08%).
Sideboard: The top cards are Stony Silence (29.08%), Rest in Peace (27.55%), Leyline of the Void (9.35%), Worship (6.63%), Eidolon of Rhetoric (4.08%), Ghirapur Aether Grid (3.23%), Leyline of Sanctity (3.06%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
As far as the matchup spotlight, I'm working on concentrating the Humans stuff to update the primer. Did anyone have any experiences against humans the last 2 weeks?
UW control is next. It was a tie between kci and bant spirits for third, so I'll either put up a runoff between them or flip a coin and put up the next poll for whatever will be 5th.
I don't know if this will be of much help, but I find that Grim Lavamancer is the card that wins the most games. Even though it doesn't kill all their best creatures, it frees up their hatebears effects like Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter, so that we can kill stuff like Mantis Rider. I've won mostly by playing around these hatebears effects, which are the only things I've been really concerned about. Also, I know that some of my humans opponents have been siding out AEther Vial against me, so there's no need to bring in artifact hate or to side out Eidolon.
Everything else I can contribute I'm sure everyone else knows alreadyé
I think the answer for Aether Vial is "some cut it, some don't", and I think Eidolon on our side is "some cut it, some don't". I wouldn't bring artifact hate because I think creature removal is far more important, but I'm not opposed to siding out Eidolon at least on the draw because it's almost dead in hand if you're behind. At best, it's a blocker, though.
Here's the new section on Humans. I'm open to critques and things I might have overlooked and will update it accordingly. I will update the final section with data, and I'll add disruptive cards to the script so that it grabs Sin Collector and similar effects.
(return)
Modern Humans plays Aether Vial to get small Humans on the board. Kitesail Freebooter + Meddling Mage can be quite potent, and Thalia can be quite disruptive as well. Expect Meddling Mage to name Searing Blaze or cut you off of a suspended Rift Bolt. Board wipes like Anger of the Gods are likely too slow to help you. Targeted removal via Searing effects as well as Grim Lavamancer are both powerful in this matchup. Expect things like Kambal, Auriok Champion, and Sin Collector out of the side from them, so lifegain hate is important and you should be aware of more disruptive cards.
Best maindeck cards against us directly: Meddling Mage, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Kitesail Freebooter, Reflector Mage. Meddling Mage and Thalia are lingering disruptors and you likely need to kill them or they'll shut you down by hosing your hand or making you too slow. Kitesail Freebooter and Reflector Mage are both ETB based hate cards that disrupt your hand or open up the board so their clock is online. Be mindful of the number of counters on Aether Vial for when these might enter at instant speed (Kitesail during your draw step, Mage during combat).
Biggest beaters: Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, Mantis Rider. Each of these creatures grows as the game goes on, and can rather quickly get out of Searing Blaze range. They need to die as soon as possible.
Their Sideboard
Auriok Champion: This is a broad use card for them and it's strong agaisnt us. Knight of Autumn: Very broad use card that can be big, blow up Ensnaring Bridge or Eidolon, or gain life. Sin Collector: Strong disruption on their part. Kambal, Consul of Allocation: Some play it but they consider it weaker than the others. Arashin Cleric: More narrow and might see more play in heavy Burn metas. Dire Fleet Daredevil: Turning your burn spells back on you. Reclamation Sage: To blow up Bridge/Eidolon, though Knight of Autumn may replace this.
Expect them to keep Aether Vial in so that they can keep applying pressure so that they can put enough pressure on the board to stay ahead of removal spells and keep our creatures from attacking. Some do cut it, though.
Our Maindeck
The strongest cards Burn generally plays in the maindeck against Humans are Searing Blaze and Grim Lavamancer, and you can run away with the game if you get to make a lot of use of both of them.
Our Sideboard
Cut: Rift Bolt or Lava Spike, Eidolon of the Great Revel (on the draw) Bring: Ensnaring Bridge, Searing Blaze, Path of Exile, Searing Blood, Grim Lavamancer.
Eidolon: You should definitely cut it on the draw, because they're an aggro deck and are generally going to be ahead of you initially. You still maintain possibility to get ahead with Eidolon on the play, so consider keeping it.
Rift Bolt or Lava Spike: Consider cutting Rift Bolt because it's clunky with Meddling Mage and almost becomes a 3CMC spell for 3 damage, though there's an argument for Lava Spike since it doesn't hit creatures.
Grim Lavamancer: Phenomenal here. Definitely play it. Searing Blaze/Searing Blood: Play 4 Blaze, consider Blood extra copies. Path of Exile: Worth bringing if you're out of removal. Ensnaring Bridge: This is a strategy and playstyle question. If you can bank on Bridge late to slow their game down, you can focus more Burn on their face rather than making tougher decisions on whether to kill creatures but you're susceptible to a late Reflector Mage/destroy ETB ending the game quickly. If you can't bank on Bridge, you may be forced to bolt more creatures, but you could have extra burn spells in your deck that would otherwise be Bridge.
Key Plays Meddling Mage: Expect them to name Searing Blaze (if blind), Rift Bolt (while suspended). Be very careful suspending Rift Bolt in general because of this, and only do it when you have access to a good way (Blaze) to kill a possible Meddling Mage, otherwise you're losing a Lightning Bolt/Helix to save your Rift Bolt. Boros Charm: If you play Ensnaring Bridge, consider saving Charm to in case you have to save Bridge with the indestructible mode. Aether Vial on 3: Knight of Autumn, Sin Collector, Reflector Mage, Kambal. Beware Vial on 3.
Clips Team Modern Super League
Finished 3-1 last night. Beat a budget Eldrazi Tron (no chalices), a budget UR deck, and affinity (non-scales) and lost to dredge. The dredge deck had creeping chill and that card is a beating. I won game two on the back of a turn 2 rest in peace, but game 1 and 3 he got to do his thing and it felt pretty bad. Also, I know every deck that was playing GW there was playing at least 2 knight of autumn, so just another card to keep in mind, which we probably all knew.
EDH is like French fries: some people like waffle cut, crinkle cut, or plain old straight cut, and while there's slight flavor difference and personal preference, at the end of the day they're still fries.
I kind of think that Knight of Autumn is going to take the spot of Kitchen Finks in decks that have access to GW, but be played more since it's more versatile. It gains the same amount of life as Finks but has relevant words against non-aggro/non-Burn decks.
Yeah, Creeping Chill is pushing Dredge back up enough that I have to run GY hate again. I had cut it recently due to the lack of GY decks in favour of even more creature removal, but I’ve had to switch back after GRN.
I’ve been seriously considering switching back to a 1/3 Lavamancer/Skullcrack split in the MB as well rather than the 2/2 split I’ve been running. Burn has sort of taken over as the most prominent aggro deck again, so everyone seems to be running a bunch of maindeck life gain now. I even ran into a mill deck running Crypt Incursion and Extirpate naming Skullcrack yesterday. Still managed to win in 3 but I wasn’t expecting to see that in game 1.
Hey guys, first time posting in this thread I believe but just wanted to give you all a good report I supposed and some thoughts. I played in an IQ this Sunday and went into top 8 with the number one spot but lost in the first round of top 8 unfortunately. Here was the decklist.
So I run the Boros version because I decided I don't care about enchantments. The only changes I would've made is I would've ran a second path over the fourth chained but I didn't have an extra non-foil copy of path available. Either way here is the report.
Round 1 Amulet Titan 2-1
Game 1 I bolt two Sakura-Tribe Scout turn 2 to avoid instant death and my opponent never finds enough lands to naturally titan so I easily win from there. Game 2 he had 2 amulets turn 2 so that was that. Game 3 I start with guide and eidolon and he ends up taking 6 damage from eidolon triggers and he scoops it up turn 3 I believe. I don't remember how I sideboarded but I didn't cut eidolons on the play or draw I don't think.
Round 2 Burn 2-0
Game 1 I just had a better hand than him and I was on the play. Game 2 I was stuck on two lands but had 3 helixes in a row to put things to an end. He was Naya but he brought his stomping ground in tapped so that didn't affect much.
Draw
+ 3 Chained to the Rocks
+ 3 Searing Blood
+ 2 Skullcrack
- 4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
- 4 Boros Charm
Round 3 UW Control 1-2
I punted game 1 because I did math wrong, I had the kill but played boros charm into a counter first when I should've used a 3 damage spell. Game 2 my opponent is at 1 life and plays a land into Zo-Zu not thinking and dies to the trigger. Game 3 I drew 9 lands and he started fatesealing me with Jace. So whoohoo
Opponent gets a game loss for tardiness. Game 2 they have the nuts with 2 Bloodghast and 2 Prized Amalgam with a Conflagrate for 6 same turn. Game 3 I just was too fast and opponent kept a hand with no dredgers. I was lucky, I choose not to run grave hate and should've lost this round if not for my opponent showing up late.
Play
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 1 Path to Exile
+ 2 Skullcrack
- 2 Grim Lavamancer
- 4 Boros Charm
- 1 Lava Spike
Draw
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 1 Path to Exile
+ 2 Skullcrack
-4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
-2 Grim Lavamancer
-1 Boros Charm
Round 5 Humans 2-1
This was a tight match. Game 1 he gets there and I just can't keep up. I sputtered out and he just kept drawing gas. Game 2 I just went HAM on him with 3 lands and a whole hand of burn he couldn't keep up. Game 3 was close. I had tons of removal but he had Kitesail Freebooter 2 Meddling MagesSin Collector and 2 Mantis Rider throughout this game and all I had was my lowly Swiftspear who survived the whole game from turn 1. Early on I just kept killing all of his creatures with burn and removal and stacking up swiftspear triggers. I had to bolt both riders to survive so i didnt have much burn. hes at 8 life and I have a lava spike and boros charm and bolt He has a meddling mage on the boros charm and a Noble Hierarch. I'm at 4. I swing with swiftspear, he blocks with mage, i bolt the mage, and lava spike him to 5 and pass. His turn he plays another meddling mage on boros charm {he knows it's in my hand} and swings with the hierarch to put me at 2 (it had a counter from Thalia's Lieutenant) I figure I'm dead, no idea what I can draw to do enough damage to end it. Except I had the perfect card. Searing Blood off the top. I stare at his life total and his one meddling mage blocker, and no cards in hand and go "oh my god." I play the searing blood and say "trigger" my opponent just stares at the board in disbelief.
Play
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 4 Searing Blood
- 4 Boros Charm
- 2 Rift Bolt
- 2 Skullcrack
Draw
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 4 Searing Blood
- 4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
- 2 Skullcrack
- 2 Boros Charm
Top 8 Hardened Scales 0-2
I lost gloriously with a 4 lander on the play and my opponent was able to assemble 10 infect on turn 3 or 4. Game 2 I kept (Mountain, Goblin Guide, Bolt, Bolt, Path, Smash to Smithereens, Searing Blood) I couldn't pass it up, and didn't draw a land until turn 4 or so and lost to a swing for 30+ oh well friends, this was the first IQ i ever went to and I couldn't be happier. Burn was so much fun, and I can't get enough of just mauling people's creatures.
I swing with swiftspear, he blocks with mage, i bolt the mage, and lava spike him to 5 and pass.
I’m curious about this line that you took. Was the Meddling Mage pumped up to 3 health? If you just bolted face then your 2/3 Swiftspear would eat the mage anyway. Why bolt it in response to blocks? I’m assuming it was since you noted the Noble Hierarch was pumped up as well.
Even if it was a 3/3, it seems like it would have been better to Spike before combat to put him at 5 and make your Swiftspear a 2/3, then when he blocked, you could bolt face and eat the mage for free. Board state ends up the same but you put him at 2 and give yourself a lot more outs on your top deck. Even if he decided to block with the Hierarch instead, you’d just hold bolt to give yourself more options on their turn. In this case, you could hit the mage when the other one is on the stack next turn (since he’d likely name either that or Searing Blaze) or still go face and hope for other top decks depending on what spells you’ve already used.
You're definitely right in hindsight, it was probably just nerves. Either way my thought process was to trick him, I figured he didn't want the meddling mage to die and get boros charmed so I figured I'd just attack in and see if I could trick him into not blocking and then kill him on the spot right there. I was just taking a risk. I don't really have a reasoning behind it other than than "if he doesn't block he will die on the spot." Yes, the mage on the field at that time was a 3/3.
Yeah, nerves are understandable and as good a reason as any. I just wanted to make sure I was reading the play correctly in your recap and wasn’t missing a different line that you were thinking about instead.
Nothing I said has proven you correct. When people play Burn and lose, the easy answer for why they lost is "I flooded", but it's not necessarily correct. That player does themselves a disservice by attributing all losses to uncontrollable random processes rather than critically evaluating their own play. That means evaluating your sequencing, did you tap out and block a skullcrack in your hand and they played finks, did you waste a spell on a creature and cause your own clock to get slower, did you trap yourself with too few white sources in play for what was in your hand, etc. Some of those situations manifest as the easy answer of "I would have won if I drew another spell" when the real answer is "I lost because I made a mistake". This is why I've said that one way you minimize the probability of running out of gas is through tight play, and you somehow found that "laughable".
The real answer might be flooding, and it's OK if that is the real answer. You minimize that with deck building and you should be able to accept that undesirable outcomes still happen. You minimize that by playing few lands, efficient and redundant spells, and efficient creatures. A draw spell that is stellar could fit into that mix (TC did it), but an expensive punisher card doesn't fit the bill of "stellar draw spell". Building bad outs to bad situations into your deck doesn't make your deck better. What if my opponent is at 8 life and I have 9 land in play late in the game? Obviously I want Fireball to be my only card in hand at that point, and I certainly wouldn't want lightning bolt! That's ridiculous, but it's effectively the argument you have for why Risk Factor is necessary. I've lost that game of I find myself in that situation and I've lost it because I made several mistakes along the way. I shouldn't go designing bad ways to win unwinnable situations and as a result start losing otherwise winnable games because of it.
Feel free to learn about the hypergeomtric function if you feel inclined. I don't feel compelled to assist you in doing it after your repeated hostile comments towards me. Here's a useful site, though: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
While I was on the side of Risk Factor, I must say this is the smartest assessment of the card thus far. However, you are not considering the Jump-Start side of the card, so I guess what I'm saying is sure, Risk Factor is worse than a regular burn spell when played from hand, but is it worth playing that card just to have castable copy in the graveyard?
In my opinion, this card is similar to Shrine of Burning Rage. It worked for a GP winner, it worked for a lot of people, and it was a pretty good card, but it just wasn't optimal, which then made it bad. I've tested The Flame of Keld (don't judge), and I was happy with its results, but I was happier with the stock Burn list. The same thing happened with Vexing Devil, which is also good, but not good enough.
I'm sorry, but I'm changing my vote to against Risk Factor. I'm still going to give it the benefit of the doubt and test it though.
UW control is next. It was a tie between kci and bant spirits for third, so I'll either put up a runoff between them or flip a coin and put up the next poll for whatever will be 5th.
I wouldn't go too crazy with that quite yet. Trophy looks more and more to me like a card that would be boarded out against us. I am considering upping my basic count from three to four, though. Then again, I also run nineteen lands. If you are on a twenty land build, dropping a searing blaze or rift bolt for a shard valley may make more sense.
@elconquistador - I haven't actually played in a couple of weeks. My last humans matchup is the one I depicted in the pptq report from a month back.
Vintage Cube Cards Explained
Here are some other articles I've written about fine tuning your cube:
1. Minimum Archetype Support
2. Improving Green Archetypes
3. Improving White Archetypes
4. Matchup Analysis
5. Cube Combos (Work in Progress)
Draft my Cube - https://cubecobra.com/cube/overview/d8i
From my understanding, in legacy half of the format plays wastelands. I've noticed the decks in that format do not increase their land count to mitigate wastelands (look at legaxy jund, burn, Merfolk etc).
Therefore, my answer to this question is, I wouldn't readjust the number of lands into consideration for assassin. (The only thing I would do is maybe affinity in modern should try to play 2 basics instead of 1)
Vintage Cube Cards Explained
Here are some other articles I've written about fine tuning your cube:
1. Minimum Archetype Support
2. Improving Green Archetypes
3. Improving White Archetypes
4. Matchup Analysis
5. Cube Combos (Work in Progress)
Draft my Cube - https://cubecobra.com/cube/overview/d8i
I don't know if this will be of much help, but I find that Grim Lavamancer is the card that wins the most games. Even though it doesn't kill all their best creatures, it frees up their hatebears effects like Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter, so that we can kill stuff like Mantis Rider. I've won mostly by playing around these hatebears effects, which are the only things I've been really concerned about. Also, I know that some of my humans opponents have been siding out AEther Vial against me, so there's no need to bring in artifact hate or to side out Eidolon.
Everything else I can contribute I'm sure everyone else knows already knows.
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The deck population is 588 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection.
Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (16.33%), Logic Knot (14.46%), Lightning Helix (11.90%), Collective Brutality (11.73%), Negate (11.56%), Scavenging Ooze (9.52%), Mana Leak (9.35%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Cryptic Command (17.67%), Logic Knot (14.44%), Lightning Helix (12.44%), Scavenging Ooze (10.75%), Collective Brutality (10.45%), Negate (10.14%), Remand (9.37%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Dispel (19.82%), Negate (19.82%), Collective Brutality (12.75%), Timely Reinforcements (10.45%), Auriok Champion (8.60%), Lyra Dawnbringer (7.22%), Kambal, Consul of Allocation (7.07%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
11.05% Humans
7.14% Burn
7.14% WU Control
5.61% Goodstuff 3c
4.08% Jund
3.91% WUR Control
3.91% Affinity
3.74% Hollow One
3.06% G Tron
2.89% Bridgevine
2.72% Mardu Pyromancer
2.55% Vizier Company
2.55% KCI Combo
1.87% UG Infect
1.87% Bogles
1.70% Elves
1.70% UBR Death's Shadow
1.53% Hardened Scales
1.36% Eldrazi Aggro
1.36% UR Gifts Storm
1.19% Abzan
1.02% Amulet Titan
0.85% Hardened Modular
0.85% UW Miracles
0.68% RG Titanshift
0.68% Uw Spirits
0.68% Eldrazi and Taxes
0.68% Merfolk
0.68% 8-Rack
0.68% Ad Nauseam
0.68% WRG Titanshift
0.51% Eldrazi Tron
0.51% BRG Titanshift
0.51% Mill
0.51% BGx Midrange
0.51% Dredge
0.51% Lantern Control
0.51% URG Gifts Storm
0.51% Bant Spirits
0.51% Blue Moon
0.34% WUB Control
0.34% Grishoalbrand
0.34% Living End
0.34% UR Delver
0.34% Skred Dragons
0.34% Artifact Prison
0.34% Uw
0.34% WRG Hatebears
0.34% UR Control
0.34% Mono Red Prison
0.34% URG Control
0.34% UBG Infect
0.17% Grixis Midrange
0.17% Gr Ponza
0.17% WB Hatebears
0.17% WR Kiki-Resto
0.17% Death and Taxes
0.17% Domain Zoo
0.17% WURG Copycat
0.17% Jeskai Control
0.17% Jeskai Tempo
0.17% WB Control
0.17% Mono Blue Faeries
0.17% Kiln Fiend Red
0.17% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.17% Harden Scales
0.17% URG Delver
0.17% WUG Infect
0.17% Monogreen Belcher
0.17% Sligh
0.17% Amulet Combo
0.17% UR Pyromancer
0.17% UB Control
0.17% WUG Hatebears
0.17% Selesnya Value
0.17% Ur Swans
0.17% Rg Land Loss
0.17% Uw Miracle
0.17% Gruul Zoo
0.17% Kiln Fiend
0.17% Melira Company
0.17% Breach Titan
0.17% Gw Company
0.17% Ponza
0.17% Hardned Scales
0.17% Cthulu Dance Party
0.17% Skred Red
0.17% WURG Control
0.17% Bant Company
0.17% Mono U Tron
0.17% URG Scapeshift
0.17% Mono White Martyr
0.17% WRG Kiki-Resto
0.17% 8 Whack
0.17% Gw Good Taste
0.17% Rakdos Aggro
0.17% Ur Lanternless
0.17% Boros Life-burn
0.17% Instant Reanimator
0.17% Modular Scales
0.17% UBR Control
0.17% WUBR Control
0.17% Bant
0.17% Mono Green Aggro
0.17% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.17% Uw Control
0.17% Spirit Aggro
0.17% Jeskai Conrol
0.17% Martyr Proc
0.17% Ub Faeries
0.17% Gifts 3c
0.17% Ur Breach
0.17% Rg Ponza
0.17% WURG Kiki-Resto
0.17% WUG Control
0.17% Mono Red 8-moon
Enchantments:
Total decks 588
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Link to previous month: August 2018 (apologies if it goes to the wrong spot on the page, it's post 1549).
I think the answer for Aether Vial is "some cut it, some don't", and I think Eidolon on our side is "some cut it, some don't". I wouldn't bring artifact hate because I think creature removal is far more important, but I'm not opposed to siding out Eidolon at least on the draw because it's almost dead in hand if you're behind. At best, it's a blocker, though.
Modern Humans plays Aether Vial to get small Humans on the board. Kitesail Freebooter + Meddling Mage can be quite potent, and Thalia can be quite disruptive as well. Expect Meddling Mage to name Searing Blaze or cut you off of a suspended Rift Bolt. Board wipes like Anger of the Gods are likely too slow to help you. Targeted removal via Searing effects as well as Grim Lavamancer are both powerful in this matchup. Expect things like Kambal, Auriok Champion, and Sin Collector out of the side from them, so lifegain hate is important and you should be aware of more disruptive cards.
MTGSalvation Primer
Matchup: Even
Best maindeck cards against us directly: Meddling Mage, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Kitesail Freebooter, Reflector Mage. Meddling Mage and Thalia are lingering disruptors and you likely need to kill them or they'll shut you down by hosing your hand or making you too slow. Kitesail Freebooter and Reflector Mage are both ETB based hate cards that disrupt your hand or open up the board so their clock is online. Be mindful of the number of counters on Aether Vial for when these might enter at instant speed (Kitesail during your draw step, Mage during combat).
Biggest beaters: Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, Mantis Rider. Each of these creatures grows as the game goes on, and can rather quickly get out of Searing Blaze range. They need to die as soon as possible.
Auriok Champion: This is a broad use card for them and it's strong agaisnt us.
Knight of Autumn: Very broad use card that can be big, blow up Ensnaring Bridge or Eidolon, or gain life.
Sin Collector: Strong disruption on their part.
Kambal, Consul of Allocation: Some play it but they consider it weaker than the others.
Arashin Cleric: More narrow and might see more play in heavy Burn metas.
Dire Fleet Daredevil: Turning your burn spells back on you.
Reclamation Sage: To blow up Bridge/Eidolon, though Knight of Autumn may replace this.
Expect them to keep Aether Vial in so that they can keep applying pressure so that they can put enough pressure on the board to stay ahead of removal spells and keep our creatures from attacking. Some do cut it, though.
The strongest cards Burn generally plays in the maindeck against Humans are Searing Blaze and Grim Lavamancer, and you can run away with the game if you get to make a lot of use of both of them.
Cut: Rift Bolt or Lava Spike, Eidolon of the Great Revel (on the draw)
Bring: Ensnaring Bridge, Searing Blaze, Path of Exile, Searing Blood, Grim Lavamancer.
Eidolon: You should definitely cut it on the draw, because they're an aggro deck and are generally going to be ahead of you initially. You still maintain possibility to get ahead with Eidolon on the play, so consider keeping it.
Rift Bolt or Lava Spike: Consider cutting Rift Bolt because it's clunky with Meddling Mage and almost becomes a 3CMC spell for 3 damage, though there's an argument for Lava Spike since it doesn't hit creatures.
Grim Lavamancer: Phenomenal here. Definitely play it.
Searing Blaze/Searing Blood: Play 4 Blaze, consider Blood extra copies.
Path of Exile: Worth bringing if you're out of removal.
Ensnaring Bridge: This is a strategy and playstyle question. If you can bank on Bridge late to slow their game down, you can focus more Burn on their face rather than making tougher decisions on whether to kill creatures but you're susceptible to a late Reflector Mage/destroy ETB ending the game quickly. If you can't bank on Bridge, you may be forced to bolt more creatures, but you could have extra burn spells in your deck that would otherwise be Bridge.
Key Plays
Meddling Mage: Expect them to name Searing Blaze (if blind), Rift Bolt (while suspended). Be very careful suspending Rift Bolt in general because of this, and only do it when you have access to a good way (Blaze) to kill a possible Meddling Mage, otherwise you're losing a Lightning Bolt/Helix to save your Rift Bolt.
Boros Charm: If you play Ensnaring Bridge, consider saving Charm to in case you have to save Bridge with the indestructible mode.
Aether Vial on 3: Knight of Autumn, Sin Collector, Reflector Mage, Kambal. Beware Vial on 3.
Clips
Team Modern Super League
I’ve been seriously considering switching back to a 1/3 Lavamancer/Skullcrack split in the MB as well rather than the 2/2 split I’ve been running. Burn has sort of taken over as the most prominent aggro deck again, so everyone seems to be running a bunch of maindeck life gain now. I even ran into a mill deck running Crypt Incursion and Extirpate naming Skullcrack yesterday. Still managed to win in 3 but I wasn’t expecting to see that in game 1.
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Searing Blaze
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Helix
2 Skullcrack
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Inspiring Vantage
3 Sacred Foundry
5 Mountain
1 Path to Exile
4 Searing Blood
2 Skullcrack
1 Shattering Spree
1 Smash to Smithereens
1 Sudden Shock
1 Zo-Zu The Punisher
So I run the Boros version because I decided I don't care about enchantments. The only changes I would've made is I would've ran a second path over the fourth chained but I didn't have an extra non-foil copy of path available. Either way here is the report.
Round 1 Amulet Titan 2-1
Game 1 I bolt two Sakura-Tribe Scout turn 2 to avoid instant death and my opponent never finds enough lands to naturally titan so I easily win from there. Game 2 he had 2 amulets turn 2 so that was that. Game 3 I start with guide and eidolon and he ends up taking 6 damage from eidolon triggers and he scoops it up turn 3 I believe. I don't remember how I sideboarded but I didn't cut eidolons on the play or draw I don't think.
Round 2 Burn 2-0
Game 1 I just had a better hand than him and I was on the play. Game 2 I was stuck on two lands but had 3 helixes in a row to put things to an end. He was Naya but he brought his stomping ground in tapped so that didn't affect much.
Draw
+ 3 Chained to the Rocks
+ 3 Searing Blood
+ 2 Skullcrack
- 4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
- 4 Boros Charm
Round 3 UW Control 1-2
I punted game 1 because I did math wrong, I had the kill but played boros charm into a counter first when I should've used a 3 damage spell. Game 2 my opponent is at 1 life and plays a land into Zo-Zu not thinking and dies to the trigger. Game 3 I drew 9 lands and he started fatesealing me with Jace. So whoohoo
Play/Draw
+ 2 Skullcrack
+ 1 Path to Exile
+ 1 Sudden Shock
+ 1 Zo-Zu The Punisher
- 4 Goblin Guide
- 1 Lightning Helix
Round 4 Dredge 2-1
Opponent gets a game loss for tardiness. Game 2 they have the nuts with 2 Bloodghast and 2 Prized Amalgam with a Conflagrate for 6 same turn. Game 3 I just was too fast and opponent kept a hand with no dredgers. I was lucky, I choose not to run grave hate and should've lost this round if not for my opponent showing up late.
Play
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 1 Path to Exile
+ 2 Skullcrack
- 2 Grim Lavamancer
- 4 Boros Charm
- 1 Lava Spike
Draw
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 1 Path to Exile
+ 2 Skullcrack
-4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
-2 Grim Lavamancer
-1 Boros Charm
Round 5 Humans 2-1
This was a tight match. Game 1 he gets there and I just can't keep up. I sputtered out and he just kept drawing gas. Game 2 I just went HAM on him with 3 lands and a whole hand of burn he couldn't keep up. Game 3 was close. I had tons of removal but he had Kitesail Freebooter 2 Meddling Mages Sin Collector and 2 Mantis Rider throughout this game and all I had was my lowly Swiftspear who survived the whole game from turn 1. Early on I just kept killing all of his creatures with burn and removal and stacking up swiftspear triggers. I had to bolt both riders to survive so i didnt have much burn. hes at 8 life and I have a lava spike and boros charm and bolt He has a meddling mage on the boros charm and a Noble Hierarch. I'm at 4. I swing with swiftspear, he blocks with mage, i bolt the mage, and lava spike him to 5 and pass. His turn he plays another meddling mage on boros charm {he knows it's in my hand} and swings with the hierarch to put me at 2 (it had a counter from Thalia's Lieutenant) I figure I'm dead, no idea what I can draw to do enough damage to end it. Except I had the perfect card. Searing Blood off the top. I stare at his life total and his one meddling mage blocker, and no cards in hand and go "oh my god." I play the searing blood and say "trigger" my opponent just stares at the board in disbelief.
Play
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 4 Searing Blood
- 4 Boros Charm
- 2 Rift Bolt
- 2 Skullcrack
Draw
+ 4 Chained to the Rocks
+ 4 Searing Blood
- 4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
- 2 Skullcrack
- 2 Boros Charm
Top 8 Hardened Scales 0-2
I lost gloriously with a 4 lander on the play and my opponent was able to assemble 10 infect on turn 3 or 4. Game 2 I kept (Mountain, Goblin Guide, Bolt, Bolt, Path, Smash to Smithereens, Searing Blood) I couldn't pass it up, and didn't draw a land until turn 4 or so and lost to a swing for 30+ oh well friends, this was the first IQ i ever went to and I couldn't be happier. Burn was so much fun, and I can't get enough of just mauling people's creatures.
I’m curious about this line that you took. Was the Meddling Mage pumped up to 3 health? If you just bolted face then your 2/3 Swiftspear would eat the mage anyway. Why bolt it in response to blocks? I’m assuming it was since you noted the Noble Hierarch was pumped up as well.
Even if it was a 3/3, it seems like it would have been better to Spike before combat to put him at 5 and make your Swiftspear a 2/3, then when he blocked, you could bolt face and eat the mage for free. Board state ends up the same but you put him at 2 and give yourself a lot more outs on your top deck. Even if he decided to block with the Hierarch instead, you’d just hold bolt to give yourself more options on their turn. In this case, you could hit the mage when the other one is on the stack next turn (since he’d likely name either that or Searing Blaze) or still go face and hope for other top decks depending on what spells you’ve already used.
(W/B)BW Tokens(W/B) | (B/R)Rakdos Burn(B/R) | (U/R)Gift Storm(U/R)