R to cast, 2R to jump start, for 2 damage? I could see 1 or 2 copies maybe seeing play. The 2 damage rate isn't that great, but it's 4 damage on the card. I'd be ecstatic about a lava spike costed like that.
You'd only ever dump extra lands to pay for it, or perhaps extra creatures that you don't want for whatever reason. You could also dump searing blaze if it has no targets. It's certainly not as good as straight flashback would be, but it might be playable.
From the wording of jumpstart it seems like the jupmstart cost will be the same as the regular cost, you just discard a card in addition to the cost, no? That being said, what jumpstart cost would go with a lightning bolt card, 3cmc? Assuming the cost of a jumpstart card is steeper than any one-shot burn spell, how many copies would you want to run?
R to cast, 2R to jump start, for 2 damage? I could see 1 or 2 copies maybe seeing play. The 2 damage rate isn't that great, but it's 4 damage on the card. I'd be ecstatic about a lava spike costed like that.
You'd only ever dump extra lands to pay for it, or perhaps extra creatures that you don't want for whatever reason. You could also dump searing blaze if it has no targets. It's certainly not as good as straight flashback would be, but it might be playable.
Yeah, I was thinking a 3 damage version was too much to hope for. At 2 damage, R for the cost and 2R for the jumpstart, I think it's worth 2-3 slots.
From the wording of jumpstart it seems like the jupmstart cost will be the same as the regular cost, you just discard a card in addition to the cost, no? That being said, what jumpstart cost would go with a lightning bolt card, 3cmc? Assuming the cost of a jumpstart card is steeper than any one-shot burn spell, how many copies would you want to run?
If the wording is like Retrace, I think that a jumpstart Shock could see play in "the Shard Volley slot" and by that I mean "if the player happens to like using it as their pet card, but many don't play it".
If the cost to straight cast a possible jumpstart Bolt spell is greater than R, I don't think it's playable over any of our other spells. Maybe a bit 2cmc 4 damage spell with jumpstart could be playable, but not at 3. If t costs R and you get use out of it without jumpstart, then jumpstart is just gravy that makes the card better.
What do you guys think about Dreadbore as an alternative to Path for Gideon/Jace/Teferi hate for those running black? We can't handle pro red as a result, but there doesn't seem to be too many Firewalkers running around these days.
Guys, my deck has been screwing me over lately. How to get off this mindset and keep playing burn like I have been doing the last full year? I've changed nothing in my playstyle that makes me play worse, nor did I alter my list to a certain extend, the only changes have been to the SB due to local meta.
Lately my deck is either giving me all the lands or none and it's starting to get really frustrating. I've been playing the 19 lands stock list for quite some time, but the last weeks the RNG is insane. I either stick on 1 land, or get a ton of lands. Last week's PPTQ I even had more lands in play than my UW control opponent.
Again yesterday's PPTQ, I've never mulled as much, regularly to 5 only to keep a forced hand because going to 4 would mean even more disaster. From the 12-14 games (6 rounds) I've played I've seen I think a total of 4 Swiftspears and 7 Guides, rest was all spells. A ton of games where I never found my second land, or topdecking land when your opponent is on 3 or less. As a big thank you, round 3 gave me Martyr as opponent. I ended the day going 1-5 (had to wait until my buddy was done who luckily eventually ended up winning the RPTQ slot). Even on the way home, just after I cleaned my car's front window, a bird crapped on it a minute later! This was basically a quick recap of how the day went, or any last events I played burn.
A month ago I visited GP Brussels going 6-1-1 in side events including Modern double up. Yaay deck.
The deck is perfectly fine, another player playing close to the same list managed to top8 yesterday, almost getting to semifinals. Is it just a wave of incredibly unlucky RNG? How do you guys cope with this as I'm sure you've all been in the same place I'm in? Burn is frustrating me at the moment and takes away the fun of playing the deck if time after time things like this happen.
I remember recently I believe Brad Nelson published an article about not looking back and to just focus on the current game you're playing, not even think about g1 if you're playing g2/g3. I can understand the theory, but it's kinda hard if you get stuck on 1 or 8 lands in almost the entire tournament.
Hey there fellow Modern Burn players! I've just started up a Discord for all Burn players throughout the vast MTG world of formats! Pauper, Legacy, Standard, MODERN, and even EDH as I remember a friend having a really fun Ashling, the Pilgrim deck haha!
Tell us your stories of success (or bad beats!), tell us what decklist you use, why, and how you came about playing certain cards.
Read about other decklists from other formats and possibly look at getting into them! Enjoy!
August 2018 opposing hate analysis
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The deck population is 607 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection. Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.005 0.00824 Other
1.940 0.909 0.09061 Humans
1.000 0.059 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.000 0.003 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.562 0.05272 WU Control
1.100 0.455 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.429 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.000 0.800 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.007 0.00824 Other
1.333 0.429 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
3.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.000 0.571 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.286 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.003 0.00824 Other
1.000 0.143 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.003 0.00659 Other
2.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.071 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.750 0.800 0.00824 Uw Spirits
2.500 0.250 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.500 0.062 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.143 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.100 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
1.300 0.016 0.02306 Other
1.000 0.647 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.000 0.429 0.01153 Elves
1.000 0.125 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.800 0.008 0.00824 Other
3.833 0.857 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
4.000 0.375 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
3.714 0.012 0.01318 Other
4.000 0.143 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
4.000 0.143 0.01153 Elves
1.500 0.007 0.01318 Other
2.000 1.000 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.950 0.03295 Hollow One
2.000 0.250 0.03295 Bridgevine
1.500 0.250 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.222 0.01483 Dredge
1.000 0.500 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
2.000 0.250 0.00659 Lantern Control
2.000 0.045 0.03624 Jund
2.000 0.015 0.02142 Other
1.750 0.909 0.03624 Jund
1.556 0.375 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.643 0.02306 UBR Death's Shadow
1.667 0.450 0.03295 Bridgevine
1.857 0.778 0.01483 Dredge
1.000 0.200 0.03295 Hollow One
1.000 0.500 0.00659 Lantern Control
2.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.824 0.028 0.03460 Other
1.250 0.007 0.00824 Other
1.667 0.010 0.01647 Other
1.667 0.176 0.02801 Vizier Company
2.000 0.600 0.00824 Ponza
2.000 0.100 0.01647 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
2.875 0.013 0.01812 Other
1.000 0.059 0.02801 Vizier Company
3.062 1.000 0.05272 WU Control
3.818 1.000 0.03624 WUR Control
2.929 1.000 0.02306 UW Miracles
3.400 1.000 0.00824 UW Control
3.500 1.000 0.00659 UR Control
3.750 1.000 0.00659 Blue Moon
2.958 0.040 0.04283 Other
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
4.000 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
1.742 0.969 0.05272 WU Control
1.591 1.000 0.03624 WUR Control
1.786 1.000 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.571 1.000 0.01153 UR Delver
1.600 1.000 0.00824 UW Control
2.250 1.000 0.00659 UR Control
1.750 1.000 0.00659 Blue Moon
1.333 0.200 0.02471 UR Gifts Storm
2.333 0.250 0.01977 UG Infect
1.500 0.400 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.043 0.03789 KCI Combo
1.000 0.100 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
1.609 0.038 0.04613 Other
2.500 0.100 0.06590 Burn
2.000 0.050 0.03295 Hollow One
3.000 0.003 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.333 0.01483 Dredge
2.333 0.600 0.00824 Living End
3.909 0.957 0.03789 KCI Combo
3.200 1.000 0.00824 Living End
3.500 0.250 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.750 0.007 0.00659 Other
1.500 0.091 0.03624 Jund
1.667 0.005 0.00824 Other
1.000 0.273 0.03624 Jund
3.500 0.003 0.00659 Other
2.565 1.000 0.03789 KCI Combo
1.333 0.750 0.00659 Lantern Control
1.667 0.005 0.00659 Other
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.250 0.00659 UR Control
2.000 0.250 0.00659 Blue Moon
1.857 0.012 0.01647 Other
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.500 0.003 0.00659 Other
1.000 0.182 0.03624 Jund
2.000 0.125 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
1.333 0.005 0.00988 Other
1.900 0.833 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
1.188 0.291 0.09061 Humans
1.500 0.118 0.02801 Vizier Company
2.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.000 0.005 0.00494 Other
3.818 0.647 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.000 0.045 0.03624 Jund
2.000 0.005 0.01318 Other
1.636 0.500 0.03624 Jund
2.250 0.800 0.00824 Ponza
2.000 0.286 0.01153 Elves
1.000 0.059 0.02801 Vizier Company
3.000 0.083 0.01977 UG Infect
1.750 0.007 0.01153 Other
1.857 0.350 0.06590 Burn
1.000 0.176 0.02801 Vizier Company
2.000 0.400 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.036 0.09061 Humans
1.750 0.007 0.00988 Other
3.900 0.833 0.01977 Bogles
4.000 0.200 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
4.000 0.800 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
2.500 1.000 0.00659 Lantern Control
4.000 0.167 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
3.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
2.000 0.111 0.01483 Dredge
2.400 0.008 0.00988 Other
3.895 0.950 0.06590 Burn
3.100 0.909 0.03624 WUR Control
2.000 0.083 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
3.077 0.021 0.02636 Other
1.500 0.050 0.06590 Burn
2.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
2.500 0.003 0.00494 Other
1.548 0.969 0.05272 WU Control
2.682 1.000 0.03624 WUR Control
1.643 1.000 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.600 1.000 0.00824 UW Control
1.500 0.500 0.00659 UR Control
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Blue Moon
2.000 0.021 0.02636 Other
2.000 0.750 0.00659 Blue Moon
2.000 0.500 0.00659 UR Control
1.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.656 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.409 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.571 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.000 0.800 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.007 0.00988 Other
1.080 0.781 0.05272 WU Control
1.300 0.714 0.02306 UW Miracles
2.333 0.857 0.01153 UR Delver
1.750 0.182 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.400 0.00824 UW Control
2.000 0.250 0.00659 UR Control
1.857 0.012 0.01647 Other
1.000 0.062 0.05272 WU Control
4.000 1.000 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
4.000 1.000 0.00824 Uw Spirits
4.000 0.012 0.01153 Other
1.185 0.844 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.636 0.03624 WUR Control
1.154 0.929 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.600 1.000 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.008 0.00988 Other
1.000 0.875 0.05272 WU Control
1.133 0.682 0.03624 WUR Control
1.143 1.000 0.02306 UW Miracles
2.250 0.348 0.03789 KCI Combo
2.000 1.000 0.01153 UR Delver
1.000 0.800 0.00824 UW Control
1.333 0.600 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.200 0.02471 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.750 0.00659 UR Control
2.500 0.200 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Blue Moon
1.567 0.049 0.06590 Other
3.857 1.000 0.01153 UR Delver
4.000 0.250 0.00659 UR Control
2.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
3.000 0.200 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.100 0.01647 RG Titanshift
2.300 1.000 0.01647 RG Titanshift
1.750 0.800 0.00824 Ponza
1.000 0.136 0.03624 Jund
2.231 0.021 0.02801 Other
1.000 0.281 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.400 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.143 0.02306 UW Miracles
2.000 0.200 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.071 0.02306 UW Miracles
3.000 0.800 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.008 0.00824 Other
1.500 0.800 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
3.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.400 0.00824 Ponza
2.750 0.007 0.00988 Other
1.000 0.008 0.00824 Other
2.200 1.000 0.02471 UR Gifts Storm
3.429 1.000 0.01153 UR Delver
1.000 0.219 0.05272 WU Control
3.750 1.000 0.00659 UR Control
3.750 1.000 0.00659 Blue Moon
2.000 0.200 0.00824 Uw Spirits
3.526 0.031 0.03789 Other
2.714 0.955 0.03624 Jund
1.125 0.941 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.500 1.000 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.000 0.250 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.200 0.00824 Ponza
2.000 0.033 0.03295 Other
1.000 0.647 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.600 0.714 0.01153 Elves
1.667 0.600 0.00824 Ponza
1.000 0.045 0.03624 Jund
1.500 0.013 0.01812 Other
1.143 0.412 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.000 0.143 0.01153 Elves
1.200 0.008 0.00988 Other
1.000 0.176 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.000 0.143 0.01153 Elves
1.000 0.018 0.09061 Humans
1.000 0.003 0.00824 Other
1.000 0.500 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
2.000 0.125 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.007 0.00988 Other
1.600 0.417 0.01977 UG Infect
1.500 0.003 0.00329 Other
1.667 0.500 0.03954 Affinity
1.889 0.750 0.01977 UG Infect
1.000 0.071 0.02306 UBR Death's Shadow
3.000 0.043 0.03789 KCI Combo
2.111 0.015 0.01812 Other
1.000 0.344 0.05272 WU Control
1.286 1.000 0.01153 UR Delver
1.167 0.273 0.03624 WUR Control
1.250 0.286 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.000 0.500 0.00659 UR Control
1.000 0.200 0.00824 UW Control
1.455 0.018 0.02801 Other
2.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.235 0.02801 Vizier Company
2.000 0.167 0.01977 UG Infect
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Lantern Control
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
1.333 0.005 0.00494 Other
2.000 0.750 0.01977 UG Infect
1.000 0.235 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.333 0.158 0.03130 G Tron
1.000 0.250 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.143 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Lantern Control
2.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
1.364 0.018 0.02636 Other
1.800 0.714 0.01153 UR Delver
4.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
2.929 1.000 0.02306 UBR Death's Shadow
2.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
3.000 0.003 0.00329 Other
1.182 0.786 0.02306 UBR Death's Shadow
1.600 0.208 0.03954 Affinity
1.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
1.500 0.003 0.00494 Other
2.000 0.200 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.067 0.02471 UR Gifts Storm
2.000 0.200 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
2.000 0.043 0.03789 KCI Combo
3.000 0.053 0.03130 G Tron
1.500 0.007 0.00824 Other
2.526 1.000 0.03130 G Tron
1.000 0.100 0.01647 RG Titanshift
2.375 0.013 0.01483 Other
1.000 0.719 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.714 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.000 0.400 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.005 0.00824 Other
1.194 0.969 0.05272 WU Control
1.385 0.929 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.182 0.500 0.03624 WUR Control
1.500 0.800 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.125 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.008 0.01318 Other
2.000 0.947 0.03130 G Tron
2.000 0.010 0.00988 Other
1.000 0.429 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.333 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
2.000 0.800 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
2.750 0.235 0.02801 Vizier Company
2.000 0.600 0.00824 Uw Spirits
2.200 0.016 0.01977 Other
3.842 0.792 0.03954 Affinity
2.000 0.857 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.846 0.684 0.03130 G Tron
1.000 0.286 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.500 0.250 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
1.667 0.005 0.00494 Other
2.947 1.000 0.03130 G Tron
1.000 0.429 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
2.714 0.012 0.01153 Other
1.222 0.391 0.03789 KCI Combo
1.000 0.143 0.01153 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
Card fractions: This is averaged over the whole meta and is the fraction of decks that play the card in the maindeck/sideboard without taking into account how many copies they play. These give a general idea of what cards to expect from a randomly chosen deck. Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (17.30%), Logic Knot (14.50%), Lightning Helix (12.03%), Collective Brutality (10.71%), Negate (10.54%), Scavenging Ooze (10.54%), Remand (9.39%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Cryptic Command (14.31%), Logic Knot (12.11%), Lightning Helix (11.01%), Collective Brutality (10.71%), Scavenging Ooze (10.01%), Negate (9.51%), Remand (8.21%).
Hate cards by meta decks: Go here if you want to see what kind of hate cards specific decks play.
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Meta composition: This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name. Some of these deck names might be fuzzy, so the results are approximate.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
9.06% Humans
6.59% Burn
5.27% WU Control
3.95% Mardu Pyromancer
3.95% Affinity
3.79% KCI Combo
3.62% WUR Control
3.62% Jund
3.29% Bridgevine
3.29% Hollow One
3.13% G Tron
2.80% Vizier Company
2.47% UR Gifts Storm
2.31% UBR Death's Shadow
2.31% UW Miracles
1.98% Bogles
1.98% UG Infect
1.65% RG Titanshift
1.65% Goodstuff 3c
1.48% Dredge
1.32% Eldrazi Aggro
1.15% Eldrazi Tron
1.15% Elves
1.15% UR Delver
0.82% Uw Spirits
0.82% Ad Nauseam
0.82% Living End
0.82% UW Control
0.82% Ponza
0.66% Lantern Control
0.66% UR Control
0.66% Junk Hatebears
0.66% Blue Moon
0.49% WUB Control
0.49% BGx Midrange
0.49% Bant Company
0.49% UBR Control
0.49% Amulet Titan
0.49% Rg Ponza
0.49% WURG Knightfall
0.33% UBRG Scapeshift
0.33% WUG Infect
0.33% Merfolk
0.33% 8-Rack
0.33% Naya Ponza
0.33% UR
0.33% WRG Hatebears
0.33% BG Tron
0.33% WUR Delver
0.33% Bloomless Titan
0.33% WUR Ascension
0.33% Hardened Modular
0.33% Spirits
0.33% URG Control
0.33% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.33% Spirit Aggro
0.33% UrzaTron
0.33% WUR Copycat
0.33% WG Tron
0.33% BRG Death's Shadow
0.16% WG
0.16% BR
0.16% G/w
0.16% Grishoalbrand
0.16% Grixis Dragons
0.16% Patriot
0.16% Eldrazi and Taxes
0.16% Goblin!
0.16% Soul Crushing
0.16% Naban Wizards
0.16% U/w Spirits
0.16% Crackling Mardu
0.16% Kcommand.deck
0.16% Grixis Faeries
0.16% WR Hatebears
0.16% Zoo
0.16% WUG Hatebears
0.16% Selesnya Value
0.16% 8-whack
0.16% Uwr Tempo
0.16% Mono U Devotion
0.16% Uw Miracle
0.16% Gruul Zoo
0.16% Abzan
0.16% W/B Eldrazi
0.16% The Legend
0.16% WUR Storm
0.16% Tezzeret
0.16% KCI
0.16% Uw Momoland
0.16% WG Hatebears
0.16% URG Gifts Storm
0.16% Dragon Skred
0.16% Green White Good Stuff
0.16% 8wack
0.16% Skred Red
0.16% Mono-green Devotion
0.16% Grixis Griselbrand
0.16% UWx Midrange
0.16% Prison Red
0.16% Mono U Tron
0.16% URG Scapeshift
0.16% Gw Eleves
0.16% Wg Martyr
0.16% Taking Turns
0.16% Mono Red Prison
0.16% U/r Breach
0.16% G/R Land Destruction
0.16% Goodstuff 2c
0.16% U/W Spirits
0.16% R Prison
0.16% Bant
0.16% Mono Green Aggro
0.16% BG Infect
0.16% Blue Moon Breach
0.16% Blood Rug
0.16% The Teferi Project
0.16% Gifts 3c
0.16% Mono Green Stompy
0.16% Mono Black Devotion
0.16% Gb Death Cloud
0.16% Grixis
Enchantments:
Total decks 607
1.857 1.000 0.01153 UR Delver
1.800 0.227 0.03624 Jund
2.000 0.025 0.06590 Burn
2.000 0.042 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
1.000 0.250 0.00659 UR Control
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Blue Moon
2.286 0.012 0.01483 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
2.000 0.050 0.03295 Bridgevine
4.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.833 0.300 0.03295 Bridgevine
1.000 0.208 0.03954 Affinity
2.000 0.875 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
3.800 1.000 0.00824 Ponza
2.250 1.000 0.00659 Blue Moon
2.000 0.500 0.00659 UR Control
3.400 0.025 0.02636 Other
1.300 0.417 0.03954 Affinity
1.167 0.250 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
2.250 0.200 0.03295 Hollow One
1.000 0.025 0.06590 Burn
2.000 0.067 0.02471 UR Gifts Storm
1.800 0.008 0.00988 Other
1.000 0.003 0.00494 Other
4.000 1.000 0.03295 Bridgevine
4.000 0.222 0.01483 Dredge
2.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.250 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.375 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
2.500 0.050 0.06590 Burn
2.000 0.286 0.01153 Elves
2.000 0.100 0.01647 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.053 0.03130 G Tron
3.000 0.200 0.00824 Living End
2.000 0.045 0.03624 Jund
2.000 0.012 0.01812 Other
1.667 0.176 0.02801 Vizier Company
2.000 0.600 0.00824 Ponza
2.000 0.100 0.01647 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
2.875 0.013 0.01812 Other
1.000 0.059 0.02801 Vizier Company
3.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
3.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
4.000 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
1.429 0.875 0.05272 WU Control
1.385 0.929 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.200 1.000 0.00824 UW Control
1.000 0.007 0.01153 Other
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.100 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.008 0.01647 Other
3.500 0.003 0.00494 Other
1.154 0.765 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.000 0.286 0.01153 Elves
1.000 0.200 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
1.000 0.200 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.018 0.09061 Humans
1.100 0.016 0.02306 Other
4.000 1.000 0.06590 Burn
3.667 0.005 0.00494 Other
2.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
4.000 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.083 0.03954 Affinity
1.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
1.500 0.083 0.03954 Affinity
2.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.000 0.043 0.03789 KCI Combo
1.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.667 0.750 0.03954 Affinity
1.692 0.565 0.03789 KCI Combo
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Lantern Control
1.667 0.005 0.00659 Other
2.500 0.003 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
3.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
2.000 0.833 0.01977 Bogles
4.000 0.167 0.03954 Affinity
4.000 0.003 0.00329 Other
2.083 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.000 0.143 0.01153 UR Delver
1.000 0.250 0.00659 UR Control
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Blue Moon
1.000 0.003 0.00494 Other
2.500 0.200 0.01647 RG Titanshift
3.900 0.833 0.01977 Bogles
4.000 0.200 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
4.000 0.800 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
2.500 1.000 0.00659 Lantern Control
4.000 0.167 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
3.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
2.000 0.111 0.01483 Dredge
2.400 0.008 0.00988 Other
3.333 0.150 0.03295 Bridgevine
3.765 0.850 0.03295 Bridgevine
3.588 0.850 0.03295 Hollow One
3.692 0.542 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
3.500 0.444 0.01483 Dredge
4.000 0.136 0.03624 Jund
3.000 0.400 0.00824 Living End
3.000 0.143 0.02306 UBR Death's Shadow
1.000 0.053 0.03130 G Tron
3.000 0.200 0.00824 Uw Spirits
3.286 0.012 0.01812 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00494 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.000 0.125 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.750 0.00659 Lantern Control
1.000 0.143 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.200 0.00824 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.200 0.00824 UW Control
1.571 0.700 0.01647 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
2.000 0.133 0.02471 UR Gifts Storm
3.333 0.005 0.00494 Other
1.750 1.000 0.01977 UG Infect
4.000 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
2.750 0.007 0.00824 Other
2.000 0.018 0.09061 Humans
2.032 0.969 0.05272 WU Control
2.071 0.700 0.06590 Burn
1.562 0.667 0.03954 Affinity
2.143 1.000 0.02306 UW Miracles
2.182 0.917 0.01977 Bogles
2.400 1.000 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
2.000 0.364 0.03624 WUR Control
2.600 1.000 0.00824 UW Control
1.500 0.800 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.667 0.429 0.01153 Elves
1.667 0.375 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.857 0.035 0.04283 Other
2.000 0.005 0.00494 Other
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
1.000 0.031 0.05272 WU Control
1.000 0.188 0.05272 WU Control
1.600 0.227 0.03624 WUR Control
1.000 0.143 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.333 0.005 0.00659 Other
2.167 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
2.000 0.045 0.03624 Jund
1.500 0.003 0.00659 Other
2.067 0.938 0.05272 WU Control
1.909 1.000 0.03624 WUR Control
1.929 1.000 0.02306 UW Miracles
1.500 0.800 0.00824 UW Control
1.857 0.023 0.02965 Other
1.000 0.067 0.02471 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
2.000 0.417 0.01977 UG Infect
1.500 0.286 0.01153 Elves
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
1.500 0.003 0.00494 Other
4.000 0.003 0.00329 Other
4.000 0.083 0.01977 Bogles
3.818 0.917 0.01977 Bogles
1.000 0.167 0.01977 Bogles
1.111 0.750 0.01977 Bogles
1.750 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
2.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
4.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
3.333 0.010 0.01318 Other
3.000 0.045 0.03624 WUR Control
3.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.000 0.100 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
2.194 0.969 0.05272 WU Control
2.154 0.929 0.02306 UW Miracles
2.750 1.000 0.01977 Bogles
2.100 1.000 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
1.778 0.225 0.06590 Burn
2.000 0.364 0.03624 WUR Control
1.750 0.571 0.01153 Elves
2.750 0.500 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
2.000 0.800 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.750 0.167 0.03954 Mardu Pyromancer
2.000 0.800 0.00824 UW Control
1.500 0.500 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
2.500 0.500 0.00659 Blue Moon
2.000 0.059 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.943 0.058 0.06260 Other
2.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.000 0.125 0.03954 Affinity
1.000 0.042 0.03954 Affinity
2.000 0.025 0.06590 Burn
2.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
1.000 0.333 0.01977 Bogles
4.000 1.000 0.00824 Ponza
4.000 0.013 0.01318 Other
3.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.167 0.01977 UG Infect
1.125 0.667 0.01977 UG Infect
1.000 0.002 0.00329 Other
1.000 0.250 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.000 0.003 0.00659 Other
1.455 0.647 0.02801 Vizier Company
1.444 0.900 0.01647 Goodstuff 3c
1.250 0.800 0.00824 Uw Spirits
1.333 0.750 0.00659 Junk Hatebears
1.500 0.250 0.01318 Eldrazi Aggro
1.000 0.143 0.01153 Elves
1.412 0.028 0.03295 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00165 Other
Maindeck: The top cards are Search for Azcanta (13.84%), Detention Sphere (8.24%), Blood Moon (7.74%), Eidolon of the Great Revel (6.59%), Rancor (4.61%), Bridge from Below (3.62%), Courser of Kruphix (2.64%).
Sideboard: The top cards are Rest in Peace (25.37%), Stony Silence (23.56%), Leyline of the Void (11.04%), Worship (7.74%), Ghirapur Aether Grid (5.77%), Eidolon of Rhetoric (5.27%), Blood Moon (4.45%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Guys, my deck has been screwing me over lately. How to get off this mindset and keep playing burn like I have been doing the last full year? I've changed nothing in my playstyle that makes me play worse, nor did I alter my list to a certain extend, the only changes have been to the SB due to local meta.
Lately my deck is either giving me all the lands or none and it's starting to get really frustrating. I've been playing the 19 lands stock list for quite some time, but the last weeks the RNG is insane. I either stick on 1 land, or get a ton of lands. Last week's PPTQ I even had more lands in play than my UW control opponent.
Again yesterday's PPTQ, I've never mulled as much, regularly to 5 only to keep a forced hand because going to 4 would mean even more disaster. From the 12-14 games (6 rounds) I've played I've seen I think a total of 4 Swiftspears and 7 Guides, rest was all spells. A ton of games where I never found my second land, or topdecking land when your opponent is on 3 or less. As a big thank you, round 3 gave me Martyr as opponent. I ended the day going 1-5 (had to wait until my buddy was done who luckily eventually ended up winning the RPTQ slot). Even on the way home, just after I cleaned my car's front window, a bird crapped on it a minute later! This was basically a quick recap of how the day went, or any last events I played burn.
A month ago I visited GP Brussels going 6-1-1 in side events including Modern double up. Yaay deck.
The deck is perfectly fine, another player playing close to the same list managed to top8 yesterday, almost getting to semifinals. Is it just a wave of incredibly unlucky RNG? How do you guys cope with this as I'm sure you've all been in the same place I'm in? Burn is frustrating me at the moment and takes away the fun of playing the deck if time after time things like this happen.
I remember recently I believe Brad Nelson published an article about not looking back and to just focus on the current game you're playing, not even think about g1 if you're playing g2/g3. I can understand the theory, but it's kinda hard if you get stuck on 1 or 8 lands in almost the entire tournament.
Thanks
DC
Honestly, I cope with this because I played poker a lot back in undergrad and I got used to the concepts of "outs" and "liklihood" from losing to runner-runner straight draws. Improbable outcomes aren't impossible outcomes. All you can do is try to sufficiently shuffle your deck such that you approximate a random deck as best you can. What's a truly random deck? A deck where every possible ordering is equally likely. Everyone says "7 riffle shuffles to randomize a 52 card deck", and that comes from an adademic paper called "Trailing the Dovetail Shuffle to its Lair" (I think). Magic decks aren't 52 cards, but it's close. Depending on how you shuffle, you might be very far from approximating a "Dovetail" or riffle shuffle, and that means you need to shuffle a lot more than 7 times.
I decided a little while ago to take 60 numbered cards and shuffle them the way I tend to shuffle and record the order after 1 shuffle. I tend to cut the deck almost exactly in half every time and I mash shuffle but sometimes I overshoot heavily and only interleave half of each half (ie 15 cards from stack 1, 30 interleaved cards, 15 cards from stack 2). I then recorded 50 shuffle "patterns" this way and wrote a python script that would simulate multiple iterations of randomly chosen shuffle patterns. I then recorded the position of the cards as a function of their original position.
What's that look like? The images are the starting position, after 1 shuffle, 7 shuffles, 10 shuffles, ans 12 shuffles. What should this look like after a lot of iterations? Each card should have 1/60 (0.0166667) probability of being in each other position. After 12 shuffles, the bounaries (see the color bar) are between about 0.01655 and 0.01685, which differs from 1/60 by 1% maximum. After 10, this is about 0.01645 to 0.017, or in the vicinity of 2%, and there are faint streaks. After 7, there are very obvious streaks left in the plot and it differs from what I want by more than 8% maximum. I would argue that my personal shuffle technique requires 12 shuffles. I simulated up to 19 shuffles, and the bounds are not much different from 12 (its about 0.01655 to 0.01675). My apologies that I didn't put titles or axis labels on these. The file names are "counts_X", where X is the number of shuffles.
So, I deal with all of this by recognizing how statistics works, and then doing some investigating to figure out if I'm shuffling sufficiently. Now I shuffle a lot between games, and I don't get upset when improbable outcomes happen.
So I've been reading up on this topic for a while and still have multiple pages to go, but felt like posting as I won a PPTQ (47 players) with Burn last weekend. I've been playing Modern Burn since early 2015 (though not continuously), mainly Naya (Atarka's Command, no Nacatl). I did fairly well with it in the past, as in multiple PPTQ top 8s, but never won with it. Then Eldrazi Winter happened and I stopped playing burn for a while. Recently, I picked it up again, now playing Boros (splash G for Revelry) and it felt solid, but something annoyed me that already annoyed me before: the curve is too high. There are multiple spots in which I felt I got 'stuck' with all these 2 mana spells in hand and only 1-2 land, allowing me to play 0-1 spells a turn, which is just not good enough against the majority of Modern.
The obvious answer to this problem is substituting for cmc 1 spells, which leads to playing black for Bump in the Night and, if you want to really go for it, Gonti's Machinations, as well as a land less. I do think it should be Mardu, because Boros Charm is 1 of the strongest cards in the deck due dealing 4 in 1 card, and it allows for white sideboard cards. After going 4-0 in an FNM with this list, I replaced the last Ensnaring Bridge with the 2nd Crackling Doom in the sideboard and took it to a PPTQ. I played rather poorly and scrubbed out, but took the same 75 to another PPTQ last Saturday and played reasonably well to a winning finish:
The rationale here is that I want R/B on turn 1 most, because it allows me to cast almost everything in the deck and allows me to first cast Gonti's Machinations and then fetch and/or shock to get energy. Also, it's nice to not take infinite damage every game due to being 3 colors main.
Beyond that I think that Grim Lavamancer is great (certainly now) and is the only card that I tolerate in the deck that never deals damage as a topdeck.
The tournament itself went pretty smoothly and started out in a telling manner.
Round 1 Hollow One
He mulls and discards all the wrong cards which makes my bad hand good enough (I put him on another deck) to win G1. G2 the one choice I had was to attack into Gurmag Angler and bolt it or not and I decide to do it because he also has a flamewake to get back and doesn't have much else going. He blocks, I kill it and a few spells later he's dead without much pressure on me.
Round 2 Elves
She's not fast out of the gates with me on the play and even shocks in a temple garden for no reason giving me exactly lethal in an easy game. G2 I see no Searing effects, but control her board while attacking. I flood out horribly enough to not get her below 6 life despite her mulligan to 5. Oh well. G3 I again see no searing effect but enough burn to easily put her away. Don't think I've ever lost to Elves with Burn.
Round 3 Bant Spirits
This was pretty brutal. I open on swiftspear after he lays tapped Hallowed Fountain and that plants the idea of UW or Jeskai Control in my head. He then plays Botanical Sanctum but I don't add it up to Bant Spirits so I'm not sure what to do. I decide, with my hand of spike, 2 bolt, 2 rift bolt, to just play land and attack. He does nothing and takes 1, I suspend 2 rift bolts. He plays Rattlechains EoT which makes clear what he's playing so I assume he's on Spell Queller when he plays land 3 and passes after attacking. I rift bolt him twice and go for a spike. He quells, I bolt it and bolt his face for a turn 3 kill from 20 life with 1 overdamage.. 7 power swiftspear, not sure I've seen it that high ever before hehe.
G2 I Sear him out of the game, basically. Think we were done in 10 mins tops.
Round 4 Humans
I'm on the play, which means that his Thalia's Lieutenant + double Phantasmal Image is a turn too slow. I played around Meddling Mage best I could (really don't want to suspend Rift Bolt into it) and can resolve all spells in hand for the win.
G2 he keeps a reasonable 6 on the back of a Thalia, Guardian of Thraben but I have a bolt on t2 to keep attacking and playing spells so that I can double boros charm him to win the race.
Round 5 ID with Jeskai Control
I had a 50/50 on being paired with a fellow x-0 and got lucky. Even luckier that my bad matchup agreed to draw.
Round 6 ID with Naya Burn
I intended to play this round for seeding but due to the other x-0 losing the downpair in R5, IDing would guarantee 2nd or 3rd spot, which I'd take any day over a chance at 1st or maybe dropping out on breakers (mine weren't great).
I get into top 8 as 2nd seed together with, in order, Bogles, me, Jeskai Control, Humans, Infect, Naya Burn, Jund and G Tron.
Top 8 Jund
He thinks it's a good idea to play Dark Confidant against me and is soon explained the error of his ways when he immediately takes 3 from flipping Liliana. He gets lucky enough to not hit a non-land for 2-3 turns after that, though, which would have made it a very easy win, but the fact that I rather discard Blaze to his Kolaghan's Command than hold it for a potential land draw should make it pretty obvious to him that I like him having confidant in play.
Interestingly, I had a Gonti's in play with 1 energy and at first he doesn't even attack with Bob, but then, after having played Lili and dealing with my board, he decides it's time to attack and put me to 2 energy while he's at 4. Now he's dead to any non-land, non-lavamancer draw and promptly dies.
G2 he has a Collective Brutality but he only escalates once and still doesn't do much. Double Gonti give me enough life to race him.
Top 4 Naya Burn
My R6 opponent and now we have to play, but I'm on the play so I'm feeling pretty good. He might play Kor Firewalker and will probably take less damage of his mana base, which would make it much worse, but in principle I'm faster (especially on the play) and only need to dodge his helices.
G1 I have a good hand with 2 lands, haste creature, blaze and burn spells and flip a 2nd searing blaze to his GG. I Blaze and attack and he turns out to have a creature heavy hand, going GG Swift on T2. On my turn I play 3rd land and have to decide on which creature to kill. I choose his Spear as with GG he needs triple bolt exactly to kill me from 11 and with at least 2 spells, spear is bigger than guide. He tells me afterwards he would have had lethal if I killed his GG instead.
G2 I have multiple Helix and Gonti and put him in a spot where he has to shoot first. He does and I burn him out in response.
Top 2 G Tron
As you can see, the Top8 has gone very well for me, and not just in my matches. Tron beat Bogles, Burn beat Jeskai Control, then Tron beat Humans. Fun fact: this exact (well, I played Boros Burn) finals happened before in a big Dutch tournament (Dutch Open Series) in May, which I won. That one was hardly a match, but this one was.
G1 he has the absolute nuts with T3 Wurmcoil T4 wurmcoil. Could have beaten the first one if he didn't have a blocker (or removal for a creature) but sadly he did and I was down a game in a very good matchup.
G2 he mulls to 5 like Tron should in such a matchup and only has T4 tron. He digs for a payoff which only appears on T5: double wurmcoil. Nice. Well, fortunately I got him down to 7 before and go Crackling Doom, untap, Crackling Doom, Skullcrack for the win. The hand was a bit awkward but it got the job done, while he could almost taste victory already. Sorry Dave ;).
G3 I mull to 6, tossing a 3lander without creatures, for a solid 1-lander. He again mulls to 5 and has T4 tron or such. His payoff is a mere Worldbreaker, which I don't care about and as he's tapped out, I can burn him out with charm and crack.
Over the tournament (and other games I played so far) I've really liked this version. Gonti hasn't been a dead topdeck yet (always farm energy) and now that Ensnaring Bridge is such a known quantity in Burn, I like Crackling Doom instead. I made the conscious decision to a) not play enchantment removal and b) include shattering spree to only deal with solvable problems (Chalice, affinity/lantern). I might play 18 land for the 4th Charm because the deck is so good at spitting out cmc1 spells, I really can operate on fewer lands than Boros Burn. The reason I haven't yet is because of having keepable opening hands and landfall for Searing Blaze, but maybe that's just mathematically incorrect. This is a side I like about the deck, by the way: it's very easy to objectively point out the correct play/composition of the deck because everything pretty much does the same thing and all you care about is efficiency. I like operating under such restrictive conditions, which gives the deck a lot more play than it appears to have on first glance.
Congrats on the finish and thank you for the report!
You're not the only person who has posted on this thread about feeling that the regular builds need a lower CMC and looked to black as a result. I'm skeptical that Gonti's Machinations is the answer because it feels like Rift Bolt without the capability to use it immediately if you have to. I think I would rather play Sovereign's Bite, though I'd also rather play Lightning Helix than Bite. I wish there was a better 1CMC option available, but GM looks to me like it's scraping the bottom of the barrel for 1CMC stuff.
Thanks elconquistador1985. Your statistics.. wish I could only think of the ways you work them out. Appreciated. And yes perhaps the shuffling is related, perhaps RNG is just against me, I don't know. We'll see how this Saturday's tournament turns out.
Ah R3doxNL, I know who you are then PvA right? We never met but have seen your name pop around every now and then. Perhaps will see you this saturday at the DOS.
Very much liked the list you were playing, especially with the 'hidden helix' tech. I reckon Gonti's gives you a lot of sudden burst damage as I can imagine you pop multiple at once. Did Gonti's do a lot of work in the matches it saw play? Do you have a SB guide to the list?
Thanks elconquistador1985. Your statistics.. wish I could only think of the ways you work them out. Appreciated. And yes perhaps the shuffling is related, perhaps RNG is just against me, I don't know. We'll see how this Saturday's tournament turns out.
I'm happy to talk about how I do stuff. What do you want to know?
There are a couple python scripts that I use to process the hate card stuff. I have one for mtggoldfish and one for mtgtop8, and both download deck lists from their respective sites and save them in separate pandas dataframes. I then merge them with some checking to ensure that I'm minimizing duplications between the two sites (I disregard tournaments with certain keywords on mtgtop8, like Grand Prix and Star City, some i know they'd be duplicated) and I also look for identical lists with the same player and the same date and prevent those from being duplicated. Then there's a part that I'm not happy with and need to fix, but haven't had much time to finish it off... the deck name cleanup. There's a lot of typos and inconsistent naming (Uw control, WU control, U/W control, etc.) and I clean that up with a ton of if statements. If it contains Hollow One, Goblin Lore, and Burning Inquiry, call it Hollow One. If it contains Urza's Mine, then do a lot: if it contains TKS, RS, and Matter Reshaper, call it Eldrazi Tron, otherwise check the color combinations, call it mono-U, GR, whatever else Tron. You get the picture. The problem is that deck lists change over time and new ones show up, so I recently had to add the Bridgevine stuff to it. What I want to do is use a machine learning algorithm called gensim to learn archetypes that are good on the year or 2 time scale for comparison to unknown deck lists to determine the name, and this is partially working right now. From there, it's just building a list of hate cards within the month (I do this programmatically using the mtgjson database and searching for relevant words), and then counting occurrences of them within a given month. The complete formatted output for the hate card analysis post is generated by my analysis script, so I just have to paste it in and and the link to the previous month manually.
For the shuffling thing, it just took a few evenings of shuffling cards after getting my kid to sleep and recording the order to get the shuffle patterns. Once I had that, I wrote a script to randomly select a pattern, permute a deck list, and record the new order in the 2D histograms thanks I showed above. I think I had 50-ish patterns? I wanted 100 with 50 mash shuffling left hand into right hand and 50 shuffling right hand into left hand, so I should probably go back and complete that. Maybe I had 50 of one and 25 of the other, I don't remember now. It's tough to quantify the randomness of stack. I can't actually check that it's uniform probability because there are 60!=8.32e81 orders. The plots show the probability of a card being in each position, but it's possible to contrive something that gives 1/60 probability but it's definitely not random. Imagine my shuffling produces 60 orders, 1...60, 60,1...59, 59,60,1...58, etc. In that case, the probability that a card is in position X is 1/60, but it's definitely not adequately randomized because the card order is completely correlated. However, I don't think my algorithm gives rise to any such contrived solution, and I think it's acceptable for my purposes. I don't think it would rigorous enough from the standpoint of writing an academic paper about it, though.
It’s not that I have a specific thing I’d like to know more about. It’s just those posts from your end that show the amount of work and effort that has gone into it and in much detail that I’m just reading it almost with an open mouth thinking “wow” all the time. It’s really good stuff!
As an alternative viewpoint, I run Rakdos burn with a white splash for the board, and I'm thrilled with it. I think Gonti's Machinations is definitely underrated, although you absolutely must have a high fetch count in order to reliably pop it. I started playing it for the Burn, but the three lifegain comes up more often than you'd think, especially against aggro decks where they have us on a clock but we're trying to close the game. With Sovereign's Bite, 8 lifegain effects in Rakdos, and 12 in Mardu, is nothing to sneeze at. Here's my current list, of which I'm still shaky on the manabase (trying to find the right distribution of Crypts to Foundries to basics).
I'm also considering dropping white and just folding to Leyline, but that's a really scary prospect to me. I wish Enchanter's Bane had been made Standard legal.
I was shaky on Lavamancer for a long time, but Elcon convinced me it was a strong idea, and I haven't gone back. Really thrilled with him.
I agree that Gonti's is the worst cmc1 'spike', but not that you can't use it immediately. Sure, the first you can't (which is why you need it early, i.e. play 4), but that's not the case for 2-4. I would also play Helix in its spot if I would cut it (or perhaps skullcrack).
Still, it has been just 1 mana sovereign bite for me so far with some incidental upside of people not attacking me to deprive me of energy. Obviously that's stupid in the vast majority of cases so not really something you can count on, but it's upside.
My biggest gripe with it is how it can conflict with swiftspear in sequencing like when you need to either fetch another black or forego a prowess or energy trigger. Depending on the matchup you should do 1 or the other, though I default to getting the prowess because every dmg counts and you're not likely to die in 1 big hit on t2/3 where the lifegain would have mattered.
In all matches I've played with this version so far, it has felt better than Boros so I recommend you give it a shot at an FNM or so.
Indeed, DCteamup :). Gonti was fine, just another lava spike in most cases but sometimes, like in the semis, it was good to have the lifegain as well.
No SB guide, it doesn't deviate much from Boros burn, though. I'm also not at the DOS, btw. No time :(.
@Creevian, I disagree you need a high fetch count to play Gonti's. Eidolon also damages you and so does your opponent. You could argue that I need more fetches to increase my white sources, but not that I have too few for Gonti. Not killing yourself is still important. It's not like you have more life gain main deck than Boros burn.
As an alternative viewpoint, I run Rakdos burn with a white splash for the board, and I'm thrilled with it. I think Gonti's Machinations is definitely underrated, although you absolutely must have a high fetch count in order to reliably pop it. I started playing it for the Burn, but the three lifegain comes up more often than you'd think, especially against aggro decks where they have us on a clock but we're trying to close the game. With Sovereign's Bite, 8 lifegain effects in Rakdos, and 12 in Mardu, is nothing to sneeze at. Here's my current list, of which I'm still shaky on the manabase (trying to find the right distribution of Crypts to Foundries to basics).
I'm also considering dropping white and just folding to Leyline, but that's a really scary prospect to me. I wish Enchanter's Bane had been made Standard legal.
I was shaky on Lavamancer for a long time, but Elcon convinced me it was a strong idea, and I haven't gone back. Really thrilled with him.
What do you think about rain of gore in the side board?
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You'd only ever dump extra lands to pay for it, or perhaps extra creatures that you don't want for whatever reason. You could also dump searing blaze if it has no targets. It's certainly not as good as straight flashback would be, but it might be playable.
GWUBRDraft my Old Border Nostalgia Cube! and/or The Little Pauper Cube That Could!RBUWG
Modern:WDeath & TaxesW | RUGRUG DelverRUG
Yeah, I was thinking a 3 damage version was too much to hope for. At 2 damage, R for the cost and 2R for the jumpstart, I think it's worth 2-3 slots.
If the wording is like Retrace, I think that a jumpstart Shock could see play in "the Shard Volley slot" and by that I mean "if the player happens to like using it as their pet card, but many don't play it".
If the cost to straight cast a possible jumpstart Bolt spell is greater than R, I don't think it's playable over any of our other spells. Maybe a bit 2cmc 4 damage spell with jumpstart could be playable, but not at 3. If t costs R and you get use out of it without jumpstart, then jumpstart is just gravy that makes the card better.
Lately my deck is either giving me all the lands or none and it's starting to get really frustrating. I've been playing the 19 lands stock list for quite some time, but the last weeks the RNG is insane. I either stick on 1 land, or get a ton of lands. Last week's PPTQ I even had more lands in play than my UW control opponent.
Again yesterday's PPTQ, I've never mulled as much, regularly to 5 only to keep a forced hand because going to 4 would mean even more disaster. From the 12-14 games (6 rounds) I've played I've seen I think a total of 4 Swiftspears and 7 Guides, rest was all spells. A ton of games where I never found my second land, or topdecking land when your opponent is on 3 or less. As a big thank you, round 3 gave me Martyr as opponent. I ended the day going 1-5 (had to wait until my buddy was done who luckily eventually ended up winning the RPTQ slot). Even on the way home, just after I cleaned my car's front window, a bird crapped on it a minute later! This was basically a quick recap of how the day went, or any last events I played burn.
A month ago I visited GP Brussels going 6-1-1 in side events including Modern double up. Yaay deck.
The deck is perfectly fine, another player playing close to the same list managed to top8 yesterday, almost getting to semifinals. Is it just a wave of incredibly unlucky RNG? How do you guys cope with this as I'm sure you've all been in the same place I'm in? Burn is frustrating me at the moment and takes away the fun of playing the deck if time after time things like this happen.
I remember recently I believe Brad Nelson published an article about not looking back and to just focus on the current game you're playing, not even think about g1 if you're playing g2/g3. I can understand the theory, but it's kinda hard if you get stuck on 1 or 8 lands in almost the entire tournament.
Thanks
DC
Tell us your stories of success (or bad beats!), tell us what decklist you use, why, and how you came about playing certain cards.
Read about other decklists from other formats and possibly look at getting into them! Enjoy!
https://discord.gg/QgeCvtG
Twitch Channel - https://www.twitch.tv/moontimedweller
MODERN - Mono-Blue Merfolk & 7-Forest Goblin Charbelcher
LEGACY - Ruby Storm & Burn
PAUPER - Zombies, Bogles, & Burn
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The deck population is 607 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection.
Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (17.30%), Logic Knot (14.50%), Lightning Helix (12.03%), Collective Brutality (10.71%), Negate (10.54%), Scavenging Ooze (10.54%), Remand (9.39%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Cryptic Command (14.31%), Logic Knot (12.11%), Lightning Helix (11.01%), Collective Brutality (10.71%), Scavenging Ooze (10.01%), Negate (9.51%), Remand (8.21%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Dispel (15.72%), Negate (14.41%), Collective Brutality (14.11%), Timely Reinforcements (7.31%), Obstinate Baloth (6.01%), Thragtusk (6.01%), Stubborn Denial (5.51%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
9.06% Humans
6.59% Burn
5.27% WU Control
3.95% Mardu Pyromancer
3.95% Affinity
3.79% KCI Combo
3.62% WUR Control
3.62% Jund
3.29% Bridgevine
3.29% Hollow One
3.13% G Tron
2.80% Vizier Company
2.47% UR Gifts Storm
2.31% UBR Death's Shadow
2.31% UW Miracles
1.98% Bogles
1.98% UG Infect
1.65% RG Titanshift
1.65% Goodstuff 3c
1.48% Dredge
1.32% Eldrazi Aggro
1.15% Eldrazi Tron
1.15% Elves
1.15% UR Delver
0.82% Uw Spirits
0.82% Ad Nauseam
0.82% Living End
0.82% UW Control
0.82% Ponza
0.66% Lantern Control
0.66% UR Control
0.66% Junk Hatebears
0.66% Blue Moon
0.49% WUB Control
0.49% BGx Midrange
0.49% Bant Company
0.49% UBR Control
0.49% Amulet Titan
0.49% Rg Ponza
0.49% WURG Knightfall
0.33% UBRG Scapeshift
0.33% WUG Infect
0.33% Merfolk
0.33% 8-Rack
0.33% Naya Ponza
0.33% UR
0.33% WRG Hatebears
0.33% BG Tron
0.33% WUR Delver
0.33% Bloomless Titan
0.33% WUR Ascension
0.33% Hardened Modular
0.33% Spirits
0.33% URG Control
0.33% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.33% Spirit Aggro
0.33% UrzaTron
0.33% WUR Copycat
0.33% WG Tron
0.33% BRG Death's Shadow
0.16% WG
0.16% BR
0.16% G/w
0.16% Grishoalbrand
0.16% Grixis Dragons
0.16% Patriot
0.16% Eldrazi and Taxes
0.16% Goblin!
0.16% Soul Crushing
0.16% Naban Wizards
0.16% U/w Spirits
0.16% Crackling Mardu
0.16% Kcommand.deck
0.16% Grixis Faeries
0.16% WR Hatebears
0.16% Zoo
0.16% WUG Hatebears
0.16% Selesnya Value
0.16% 8-whack
0.16% Uwr Tempo
0.16% Mono U Devotion
0.16% Uw Miracle
0.16% Gruul Zoo
0.16% Abzan
0.16% W/B Eldrazi
0.16% The Legend
0.16% WUR Storm
0.16% Tezzeret
0.16% KCI
0.16% Uw Momoland
0.16% WG Hatebears
0.16% URG Gifts Storm
0.16% Dragon Skred
0.16% Green White Good Stuff
0.16% 8wack
0.16% Skred Red
0.16% Mono-green Devotion
0.16% Grixis Griselbrand
0.16% UWx Midrange
0.16% Prison Red
0.16% Mono U Tron
0.16% URG Scapeshift
0.16% Gw Eleves
0.16% Wg Martyr
0.16% Taking Turns
0.16% Mono Red Prison
0.16% U/r Breach
0.16% G/R Land Destruction
0.16% Goodstuff 2c
0.16% U/W Spirits
0.16% R Prison
0.16% Bant
0.16% Mono Green Aggro
0.16% BG Infect
0.16% Blue Moon Breach
0.16% Blood Rug
0.16% The Teferi Project
0.16% Gifts 3c
0.16% Mono Green Stompy
0.16% Mono Black Devotion
0.16% Gb Death Cloud
0.16% Grixis
Total decks 607
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Link to previous month: July 2018 (apologies if it goes to the wrong spot on the page, it's post 1501).
Honestly, I cope with this because I played poker a lot back in undergrad and I got used to the concepts of "outs" and "liklihood" from losing to runner-runner straight draws. Improbable outcomes aren't impossible outcomes. All you can do is try to sufficiently shuffle your deck such that you approximate a random deck as best you can. What's a truly random deck? A deck where every possible ordering is equally likely. Everyone says "7 riffle shuffles to randomize a 52 card deck", and that comes from an adademic paper called "Trailing the Dovetail Shuffle to its Lair" (I think). Magic decks aren't 52 cards, but it's close. Depending on how you shuffle, you might be very far from approximating a "Dovetail" or riffle shuffle, and that means you need to shuffle a lot more than 7 times.
I decided a little while ago to take 60 numbered cards and shuffle them the way I tend to shuffle and record the order after 1 shuffle. I tend to cut the deck almost exactly in half every time and I mash shuffle but sometimes I overshoot heavily and only interleave half of each half (ie 15 cards from stack 1, 30 interleaved cards, 15 cards from stack 2). I then recorded 50 shuffle "patterns" this way and wrote a python script that would simulate multiple iterations of randomly chosen shuffle patterns. I then recorded the position of the cards as a function of their original position.
What's that look like? The images are the starting position, after 1 shuffle, 7 shuffles, 10 shuffles, ans 12 shuffles. What should this look like after a lot of iterations? Each card should have 1/60 (0.0166667) probability of being in each other position. After 12 shuffles, the bounaries (see the color bar) are between about 0.01655 and 0.01685, which differs from 1/60 by 1% maximum. After 10, this is about 0.01645 to 0.017, or in the vicinity of 2%, and there are faint streaks. After 7, there are very obvious streaks left in the plot and it differs from what I want by more than 8% maximum. I would argue that my personal shuffle technique requires 12 shuffles. I simulated up to 19 shuffles, and the bounds are not much different from 12 (its about 0.01655 to 0.01675). My apologies that I didn't put titles or axis labels on these. The file names are "counts_X", where X is the number of shuffles.
So, I deal with all of this by recognizing how statistics works, and then doing some investigating to figure out if I'm shuffling sufficiently. Now I shuffle a lot between games, and I don't get upset when improbable outcomes happen.
Direct Current: 1RR, Sorcery, 2 damage to any target.
3 mana is too expensive.
The obvious answer to this problem is substituting for cmc 1 spells, which leads to playing black for Bump in the Night and, if you want to really go for it, Gonti's Machinations, as well as a land less. I do think it should be Mardu, because Boros Charm is 1 of the strongest cards in the deck due dealing 4 in 1 card, and it allows for white sideboard cards. After going 4-0 in an FNM with this list, I replaced the last Ensnaring Bridge with the 2nd Crackling Doom in the sideboard and took it to a PPTQ. I played rather poorly and scrubbed out, but took the same 75 to another PPTQ last Saturday and played reasonably well to a winning finish:
4 Arid Mesa
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Mountain
Creatures (14)
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lava Spike
4 Bump in the Night
4 Gonti's Machinations
4 Searing Blaze
3 Boros Charm
4 Rift Bolt
2 Crackling Doom
3 Skullcrack
1 Shattering Spree
2 Smash to Smithereens
2 Searing Blood
1 Rest in Peace
2 Exquisite Firecraft
2 Lightning Helix
The rationale here is that I want R/B on turn 1 most, because it allows me to cast almost everything in the deck and allows me to first cast Gonti's Machinations and then fetch and/or shock to get energy. Also, it's nice to not take infinite damage every game due to being 3 colors main.
Beyond that I think that Grim Lavamancer is great (certainly now) and is the only card that I tolerate in the deck that never deals damage as a topdeck.
The tournament itself went pretty smoothly and started out in a telling manner.
Round 1 Hollow One
He mulls and discards all the wrong cards which makes my bad hand good enough (I put him on another deck) to win G1. G2 the one choice I had was to attack into Gurmag Angler and bolt it or not and I decide to do it because he also has a flamewake to get back and doesn't have much else going. He blocks, I kill it and a few spells later he's dead without much pressure on me.
Round 2 Elves
She's not fast out of the gates with me on the play and even shocks in a temple garden for no reason giving me exactly lethal in an easy game. G2 I see no Searing effects, but control her board while attacking. I flood out horribly enough to not get her below 6 life despite her mulligan to 5. Oh well. G3 I again see no searing effect but enough burn to easily put her away. Don't think I've ever lost to Elves with Burn.
Round 3 Bant Spirits
This was pretty brutal. I open on swiftspear after he lays tapped Hallowed Fountain and that plants the idea of UW or Jeskai Control in my head. He then plays Botanical Sanctum but I don't add it up to Bant Spirits so I'm not sure what to do. I decide, with my hand of spike, 2 bolt, 2 rift bolt, to just play land and attack. He does nothing and takes 1, I suspend 2 rift bolts. He plays Rattlechains EoT which makes clear what he's playing so I assume he's on Spell Queller when he plays land 3 and passes after attacking. I rift bolt him twice and go for a spike. He quells, I bolt it and bolt his face for a turn 3 kill from 20 life with 1 overdamage.. 7 power swiftspear, not sure I've seen it that high ever before hehe.
G2 I Sear him out of the game, basically. Think we were done in 10 mins tops.
Round 4 Humans
I'm on the play, which means that his Thalia's Lieutenant + double Phantasmal Image is a turn too slow. I played around Meddling Mage best I could (really don't want to suspend Rift Bolt into it) and can resolve all spells in hand for the win.
G2 he keeps a reasonable 6 on the back of a Thalia, Guardian of Thraben but I have a bolt on t2 to keep attacking and playing spells so that I can double boros charm him to win the race.
Round 5 ID with Jeskai Control
I had a 50/50 on being paired with a fellow x-0 and got lucky. Even luckier that my bad matchup agreed to draw.
Round 6 ID with Naya Burn
I intended to play this round for seeding but due to the other x-0 losing the downpair in R5, IDing would guarantee 2nd or 3rd spot, which I'd take any day over a chance at 1st or maybe dropping out on breakers (mine weren't great).
I get into top 8 as 2nd seed together with, in order, Bogles, me, Jeskai Control, Humans, Infect, Naya Burn, Jund and G Tron.
Top 8 Jund
He thinks it's a good idea to play Dark Confidant against me and is soon explained the error of his ways when he immediately takes 3 from flipping Liliana. He gets lucky enough to not hit a non-land for 2-3 turns after that, though, which would have made it a very easy win, but the fact that I rather discard Blaze to his Kolaghan's Command than hold it for a potential land draw should make it pretty obvious to him that I like him having confidant in play.
Interestingly, I had a Gonti's in play with 1 energy and at first he doesn't even attack with Bob, but then, after having played Lili and dealing with my board, he decides it's time to attack and put me to 2 energy while he's at 4. Now he's dead to any non-land, non-lavamancer draw and promptly dies.
G2 he has a Collective Brutality but he only escalates once and still doesn't do much. Double Gonti give me enough life to race him.
Top 4 Naya Burn
My R6 opponent and now we have to play, but I'm on the play so I'm feeling pretty good. He might play Kor Firewalker and will probably take less damage of his mana base, which would make it much worse, but in principle I'm faster (especially on the play) and only need to dodge his helices.
G1 I have a good hand with 2 lands, haste creature, blaze and burn spells and flip a 2nd searing blaze to his GG. I Blaze and attack and he turns out to have a creature heavy hand, going GG Swift on T2. On my turn I play 3rd land and have to decide on which creature to kill. I choose his Spear as with GG he needs triple bolt exactly to kill me from 11 and with at least 2 spells, spear is bigger than guide. He tells me afterwards he would have had lethal if I killed his GG instead.
G2 I have multiple Helix and Gonti and put him in a spot where he has to shoot first. He does and I burn him out in response.
Top 2 G Tron
As you can see, the Top8 has gone very well for me, and not just in my matches. Tron beat Bogles, Burn beat Jeskai Control, then Tron beat Humans. Fun fact: this exact (well, I played Boros Burn) finals happened before in a big Dutch tournament (Dutch Open Series) in May, which I won. That one was hardly a match, but this one was.
G1 he has the absolute nuts with T3 Wurmcoil T4 wurmcoil. Could have beaten the first one if he didn't have a blocker (or removal for a creature) but sadly he did and I was down a game in a very good matchup.
G2 he mulls to 5 like Tron should in such a matchup and only has T4 tron. He digs for a payoff which only appears on T5: double wurmcoil. Nice. Well, fortunately I got him down to 7 before and go Crackling Doom, untap, Crackling Doom, Skullcrack for the win. The hand was a bit awkward but it got the job done, while he could almost taste victory already. Sorry Dave ;).
G3 I mull to 6, tossing a 3lander without creatures, for a solid 1-lander. He again mulls to 5 and has T4 tron or such. His payoff is a mere Worldbreaker, which I don't care about and as he's tapped out, I can burn him out with charm and crack.
Over the tournament (and other games I played so far) I've really liked this version. Gonti hasn't been a dead topdeck yet (always farm energy) and now that Ensnaring Bridge is such a known quantity in Burn, I like Crackling Doom instead. I made the conscious decision to a) not play enchantment removal and b) include shattering spree to only deal with solvable problems (Chalice, affinity/lantern). I might play 18 land for the 4th Charm because the deck is so good at spitting out cmc1 spells, I really can operate on fewer lands than Boros Burn. The reason I haven't yet is because of having keepable opening hands and landfall for Searing Blaze, but maybe that's just mathematically incorrect. This is a side I like about the deck, by the way: it's very easy to objectively point out the correct play/composition of the deck because everything pretty much does the same thing and all you care about is efficiency. I like operating under such restrictive conditions, which gives the deck a lot more play than it appears to have on first glance.
You're not the only person who has posted on this thread about feeling that the regular builds need a lower CMC and looked to black as a result. I'm skeptical that Gonti's Machinations is the answer because it feels like Rift Bolt without the capability to use it immediately if you have to. I think I would rather play Sovereign's Bite, though I'd also rather play Lightning Helix than Bite. I wish there was a better 1CMC option available, but GM looks to me like it's scraping the bottom of the barrel for 1CMC stuff.
Ah R3doxNL, I know who you are then PvA right? We never met but have seen your name pop around every now and then. Perhaps will see you this saturday at the DOS.
Very much liked the list you were playing, especially with the 'hidden helix' tech. I reckon Gonti's gives you a lot of sudden burst damage as I can imagine you pop multiple at once. Did Gonti's do a lot of work in the matches it saw play? Do you have a SB guide to the list?
Cheers,
DC
I'm happy to talk about how I do stuff. What do you want to know?
There are a couple python scripts that I use to process the hate card stuff. I have one for mtggoldfish and one for mtgtop8, and both download deck lists from their respective sites and save them in separate pandas dataframes. I then merge them with some checking to ensure that I'm minimizing duplications between the two sites (I disregard tournaments with certain keywords on mtgtop8, like Grand Prix and Star City, some i know they'd be duplicated) and I also look for identical lists with the same player and the same date and prevent those from being duplicated. Then there's a part that I'm not happy with and need to fix, but haven't had much time to finish it off... the deck name cleanup. There's a lot of typos and inconsistent naming (Uw control, WU control, U/W control, etc.) and I clean that up with a ton of if statements. If it contains Hollow One, Goblin Lore, and Burning Inquiry, call it Hollow One. If it contains Urza's Mine, then do a lot: if it contains TKS, RS, and Matter Reshaper, call it Eldrazi Tron, otherwise check the color combinations, call it mono-U, GR, whatever else Tron. You get the picture. The problem is that deck lists change over time and new ones show up, so I recently had to add the Bridgevine stuff to it. What I want to do is use a machine learning algorithm called gensim to learn archetypes that are good on the year or 2 time scale for comparison to unknown deck lists to determine the name, and this is partially working right now. From there, it's just building a list of hate cards within the month (I do this programmatically using the mtgjson database and searching for relevant words), and then counting occurrences of them within a given month. The complete formatted output for the hate card analysis post is generated by my analysis script, so I just have to paste it in and and the link to the previous month manually.
For the shuffling thing, it just took a few evenings of shuffling cards after getting my kid to sleep and recording the order to get the shuffle patterns. Once I had that, I wrote a script to randomly select a pattern, permute a deck list, and record the new order in the 2D histograms thanks I showed above. I think I had 50-ish patterns? I wanted 100 with 50 mash shuffling left hand into right hand and 50 shuffling right hand into left hand, so I should probably go back and complete that. Maybe I had 50 of one and 25 of the other, I don't remember now. It's tough to quantify the randomness of stack. I can't actually check that it's uniform probability because there are 60!=8.32e81 orders. The plots show the probability of a card being in each position, but it's possible to contrive something that gives 1/60 probability but it's definitely not random. Imagine my shuffling produces 60 orders, 1...60, 60,1...59, 59,60,1...58, etc. In that case, the probability that a card is in position X is 1/60, but it's definitely not adequately randomized because the card order is completely correlated. However, I don't think my algorithm gives rise to any such contrived solution, and I think it's acceptable for my purposes. I don't think it would rigorous enough from the standpoint of writing an academic paper about it, though.
Yep, the second I saw it, I had to chuckle out loud. Nowhere near what we were hoping for. Ah, well, we have a tight 60 anyways.
4x Monastery Swiftspear
4x Eidolon of the Great Revel
2x Grim Lavamancer
4x Lightning Bolt
4x Rift Bolt
4x Lava Spike
4x Bump in the Night
4x Gonti's Machinations
3x Shard Volley
3x Skullcrack
2x Sovereign's Bite
2x Sacred Foundry
2x Mountain
11x Fetches
1x Skullcrack
4x Searing Blaze
4x Wear // Tear
3x Rest in Peace
3x Path to Exile
I'm also considering dropping white and just folding to Leyline, but that's a really scary prospect to me. I wish Enchanter's Bane had been made Standard legal.
I was shaky on Lavamancer for a long time, but Elcon convinced me it was a strong idea, and I haven't gone back. Really thrilled with him.
I agree that Gonti's is the worst cmc1 'spike', but not that you can't use it immediately. Sure, the first you can't (which is why you need it early, i.e. play 4), but that's not the case for 2-4. I would also play Helix in its spot if I would cut it (or perhaps skullcrack).
Still, it has been just 1 mana sovereign bite for me so far with some incidental upside of people not attacking me to deprive me of energy. Obviously that's stupid in the vast majority of cases so not really something you can count on, but it's upside.
My biggest gripe with it is how it can conflict with swiftspear in sequencing like when you need to either fetch another black or forego a prowess or energy trigger. Depending on the matchup you should do 1 or the other, though I default to getting the prowess because every dmg counts and you're not likely to die in 1 big hit on t2/3 where the lifegain would have mattered.
In all matches I've played with this version so far, it has felt better than Boros so I recommend you give it a shot at an FNM or so.
Indeed, DCteamup :). Gonti was fine, just another lava spike in most cases but sometimes, like in the semis, it was good to have the lifegain as well.
No SB guide, it doesn't deviate much from Boros burn, though. I'm also not at the DOS, btw. No time :(.
@Creevian, I disagree you need a high fetch count to play Gonti's. Eidolon also damages you and so does your opponent. You could argue that I need more fetches to increase my white sources, but not that I have too few for Gonti. Not killing yourself is still important. It's not like you have more life gain main deck than Boros burn.
What do you think about rain of gore in the side board?