That's an interesting spell for black, though I'm not sure the life gain is that big of a deal that it's significantly better than lightning strike. The thing I still don't like about black is that the sideboard options have holes (namely Path).
I just want to comment on this and I know I don't comment here often. I don't think your reasoning is bad and on paper I agree that Sovereign's Bite isn't that good but in the entire package I do believe it makes RB Burn significantly better. The only difference is I would run my list with a single stomping ground to get access to destructive revelry. I know you and many others have posted before stating that when splashing you need to look at what you gain as well as what you lose. So what does this card give RB Burn?
You gain 8 spells that have "Opponent loses 3 life and you gain 3 life." this gives us significantly more lifegain than the other variants. Not to mention we have 12 black spells with this setup which makes anti-burn cards like korr firewalker significantly less threatening. We also have 12 sources that deflecting palm doesn't do anything against and 4 spells that ignore leyline of sanctity. Giving us more time to draw our Destructive Revelry. The life gain is significant because it means we have a lot more staying power on top of the deck being much faster (more one drops in bump in the night and gonti's machination.) which is an interesting combo. Now I do think the loss of path is significant but not terribly so. With more life gain main board we probably don't need korr firewalker or dragon's claw in board. With 12 black sources playing around Korr becomes significantly easier as well. This makes cards like Terminate a lot more appealing as one of the big draw backs is that it can't kill cards like korr. Yet I'm still running self inflicted wound so if I feel so inclined on removing him in the mirror I can do so.
Personally for sideboard I'd run something like this:
This gives us anti-life gain hate for the decks we need it, anti artifact as well as anti enchantment, searing blood like effects in self inflicted wound as well as being an excellent hate card against boggles. Removal that hits most creatures in the meta (albeit Kitchen Finks is still a pain to deal with admittedly), anti graveyard hate, and go wide strategy hate.
Let's not forget that RB has less reason to splash in other colors. We don't need deflecting palm quite as much and with 8 cards that grant life we can follow boros approach in a far less painful mana base.
Do I think RB is as strong as Boros? Probably not but I think it's closer than it's ever been and we'll probably see more RB variant lists. My dream card is a black version of path to exile. "Exile target creature and lose 3 life." I would play that even with the life loss. Even now going back to RB is feeling really tempting.
To start, my point about RB Burn isn't that the RB Burn spell base is inadequate, because it's quite good. What I don't like is that there's no catch-all creature answer to replace Path, and I'm of the opinion that the major reason you splash any given color(other than mono-R not having a sufficient spell base) is because of the sideboard options it buys you. Fatal Push kills some stuff, but not the big stuff. Self-inflicted Wound gives them the choice and has restrictions on when it's useful. Terminate deals with almost everything, but it's 2 mana.
A while ago, I estimated that a 1CMC heavy build reaches lethal about 1-2 mana earlier than a typical RW build. I don't think that's enough to be 1 turn earlier, but means that a 1cmc heavy build is just more comfortable with fewer lands in play and could win on 2 lands faster than RW could.
It's true that black spells won't trigger Kor Firewalker, but almost no one plays Kor Firewalker in the first place and that means that it shouldn't be an important deck building factor. The same goes for Deflecting Palm. To my knowledge, it's not played in any deck but Burn and it's not a staple card. That means that it's not important to be able to blank that card through the technicalities of the difference between life loss and damage.
I don't think Gonti's Machinations is even playable, personally. It's also not really your savior against Leyline of Sanctity. You're unlikely to draw 12 damage worth of them in a game fast enough to beat Leyline. Maybe it buys you one turn before you've gone too far under a Leyline to win. That's not really a big deal, either. I also don't even play any enchantment hate in my RW deck because Burn isn't the boogeyman right now and that means that Leyline doesn't show up much.
I don't play Kor Firewalker because Burn isn't the boogeyman and I'd rather play more broadly relevant sideboard cards. I also wouldn't say that Burn "needs" Deflecting Palm in RW. I don't like the card and I think it's a trap, so I don't play it.
I don't think that Sovereign's Bite is suddenly a strong reason to play black, which is what I meant by bringing up Lightning Strike. I think black is interesting, but I don't think it's quite there because of the sideboard. I prefer operating at instant speed with Boros Charm and Lightning Helix.
I do agree with elconquistador's statement that Sovereign's Bite isn't a reason to go into black. I took a look back at my R/B list and try to figure out a spot for it. I ended up not wanting to put it in the deck at all. It's worth mentioning at least, just in case.
I have liked the lower curve you can achieve with black however. Also, Gonti's has been decent for me, but I need a lot more experience overall with burn. It's not a 4 of spell it seems, but pretty good with 2 or 3.
I'd rather play Sovereign's Bite than Gonti's Machinations just because Bite has a chance to do something every time you topdeck it. However, I agree with magicdownunder that Gonti's Machinations should be 0 or 4. You want to get one early and build counters with it so that topdecked ones aren't dead, and you need 4 to maximize the probability of doing that.
That's an interesting spell for black, though I'm not sure the life gain is that big of a deal that it's significantly better than lightning strike. The thing I still don't like about black is that the sideboard options have holes (namely Path).
I just want to comment on this and I know I don't comment here often. I don't think your reasoning is bad and on paper I agree that Sovereign's Bite isn't that good but in the entire package I do believe it makes RB Burn significantly better. The only difference is I would run my list with a single stomping ground to get access to destructive revelry. I know you and many others have posted before stating that when splashing you need to look at what you gain as well as what you lose. So what does this card give RB Burn?
You gain 8 spells that have "Opponent loses 3 life and you gain 3 life." this gives us significantly more lifegain than the other variants. Not to mention we have 12 black spells with this setup which makes anti-burn cards like korr firewalker significantly less threatening. We also have 12 sources that deflecting palm doesn't do anything against and 4 spells that ignore leyline of sanctity. Giving us more time to draw our Destructive Revelry. The life gain is significant because it means we have a lot more staying power on top of the deck being much faster (more one drops in bump in the night and gonti's machination.) which is an interesting combo. Now I do think the loss of path is significant but not terribly so. With more life gain main board we probably don't need korr firewalker or dragon's claw in board. With 12 black sources playing around Korr becomes significantly easier as well. This makes cards like Terminate a lot more appealing as one of the big draw backs is that it can't kill cards like korr. Yet I'm still running self inflicted wound so if I feel so inclined on removing him in the mirror I can do so.
Personally for sideboard I'd run something like this:
This gives us anti-life gain hate for the decks we need it, anti artifact as well as anti enchantment, searing blood like effects in self inflicted wound as well as being an excellent hate card against boggles. Removal that hits most creatures in the meta (albeit Kitchen Finks is still a pain to deal with admittedly), anti graveyard hate, and go wide strategy hate.
Let's not forget that RB has less reason to splash in other colors. We don't need deflecting palm quite as much and with 8 cards that grant life we can follow boros approach in a far less painful mana base.
Do I think RB is as strong as Boros? Probably not but I think it's closer than it's ever been and we'll probably see more RB variant lists. My dream card is a black version of path to exile. "Exile target creature and lose 3 life." I would play that even with the life loss. Even now going back to RB is feeling really tempting.
To start, my point about RB Burn isn't that the RB Burn spell base is inadequate, because it's quite good. What I don't like is that there's no catch-all creature answer to replace Path, and I'm of the opinion that the major reason you splash any given color(other than mono-R not having a sufficient spell base) is because of the sideboard options it buys you. Fatal Push kills some stuff, but not the big stuff. Self-inflicted Wound gives them the choice and has restrictions on when it's useful. Terminate deals with almost everything, but it's 2 mana.
I honestly agree with most everything you've said. As I mentioned in my post the RW variant is still the strongest variant and there's no question here. However, I do think it's a lot closer than it was before. I also think burn having 8 spells that deal three and gain life for 1-2 mana (gonti and soveriegn respectively) is relevant. Don't worry I'm not attacking you or your reasoning. Just pointing out that RB is getting closer to RW and it's really just one good side board card away (imo) from being a true rival. I also believe Fatal Push in black is a trap. (I know you used that line about deflecting palm.)
It's great in decks like abzan, jund, etc but isn't really that good in burn. You're right that we want to hit a lot more than Fatal Push allows and even with the weakness of being two mana Terminate is probably RB Burn's best option. Especially since it runs more one drops it doesn't hurt as badly being two mana. The only part I really disagree with in your assessment is with Gonti's machination. I feel it's about as relevant as some of our creatures. It's really good early on but a bad top deck later in the game. I think it's best compared to Wild Nacatl in this regard.
Then again this might be a case of different metas here. In my meta Go Wide decks are common, boggles are everywhere, and running into multiple burn decks over the course of an FNM is common. This means life gain, self inflicted wound, and Rakdos charm are pretty relevant. Rakdos Charm often being two mana for 4+ damage.
P.S. I know it sounds like we're talking past each other because I'm aware your opinion is RB lacks side board options. I do differ in opinion that depending on meta black side board cards are relevant with the black spells in the shell.
As for the new card, seems like a strictly better Alms, and at least worth jamming. The problem is what to cut?
I’ve tried all the cute variants black has and I’d agree that Gonti’s Machinations isn’t great. It was a build-around-me card where I needed painlands to improve the reliability of triggering it, and was never really happy to topdeck one.
I’d concur that RW burn decks may be more resilient, and the better build of burn, but there’s a lot to be said about RB’s explosive raw power - It was how I was able to do as well as I did. The games vs Merfolk and Storm they each took 12-16 damage by turne 1-3 off repeated Vexing Devil/Claim.
I wouldn’t say a 2 mana Alms of the Vein is suddenly a reason to play black. That reason is Bob. He solves burn’s biggest shortcoming which is refueling you hand after inevitably gassing out. In most cases, it survives removal since it’s not the one beating down.
Preparing for my first major weekend event with burn that will probably end up being 5-6 rounds plus top 8 cut. The maindeck isn't changing, but I'm curious about the general nature of a sideboard going into an open field. I'm familiar enough with my local meta to customize, but Saturdays bring in larger crowds that dilute that known factor. For instance I have been running this a while:
2 relic of progenitus
2 wear/tear
2 smash to smithereens
2 searing blood*
2 exquisite firecraft*
2 kor firewalker
2 path to exile
1 deflecting palm
The ones with the asterisks are the ones that I keep due to the metas of the two stores I generally play. There's enough creature decks and blue based control to justify those slots. Now I'm wondering if I should lower one or both for an additional palm or extra gy hate. Even the relics barely see play now but I refuse to go into a modern event without at least two cards to have ready against gy strategies.
I honestly agree with most everything you've said. As I mentioned in my post the RW variant is still the strongest variant and there's no question here. However, I do think it's a lot closer than it was before. I also think burn having 8 spells that deal three and gain life for 1-2 mana (gonti and soveriegn respectively) is relevant. Don't worry I'm not attacking you or your reasoning. Just pointing out that RB is getting closer to RW and it's really just one good side board card away (imo) from being a true rival. I also believe Fatal Push in black is a trap. (I know you used that line about deflecting palm.)
It's great in decks like abzan, jund, etc but isn't really that good in burn. You're right that we want to hit a lot more than Fatal Push allows and even with the weakness of being two mana Terminate is probably RB Burn's best option. Especially since it runs more one drops it doesn't hurt as badly being two mana. The only part I really disagree with in your assessment is with Gonti's machination. I feel it's about as relevant as some of our creatures. It's really good early on but a bad top deck later in the game. I think it's best compared to Wild Nacatl in this regard.
Then again this might be a case of different metas here. In my meta Go Wide decks are common, boggles are everywhere, and running into multiple burn decks over the course of an FNM is common. This means life gain, self inflicted wound, and Rakdos charm are pretty relevant. Rakdos Charm often being two mana for 4+ damage.
P.S. I know it sounds like we're talking past each other because I'm aware your opinion is RB lacks side board options. I do differ in opinion that depending on meta black side board cards are relevant with the black spells in the shell.
I agree that Terminate is RB's best creature removal spell, and I just think that 2CMC is too much of a burden.
Agree to disagree on Gonti's. I also never bought into Wild Nacatl as a Burn card. I buy into the idea that nearly everything in the deck has to do something when you topdeck it, and the only exceptions are Eidolon and Grim Lavamancer because they provide unblockable damage if they stick.
Of course, you know your personal meta and what you should play in it better than I ever can. I was commenting on "the meta" that you should expect in a large tournament, and Kor Firewalker isn't worth playing there. I don't think Self-inflicted Wound is worth playing there either. If it's good in your meta, you should play it, but it's not something you would get much mileage from in an Open or a GP.
As for the new card, seems like a strictly better Alms, and at least worth jamming. The problem is what to cut?
I’ve tried all the cute variants black has and I’d agree that Gonti’s Machinations isn’t great. It was a build-around-me card where I needed painlands to improve the reliability of triggering it, and was never really happy to topdeck one.
I’d concur that RW burn decks may be more resilient, and the better build of burn, but there’s a lot to be said about RB’s explosive raw power - It was how I was able to do as well as I did. The games vs Merfolk and Storm they each took 12-16 damage by turne 1-3 off repeated Vexing Devil/Claim.
I wouldn’t say a 2 mana Alms of the Vein is suddenly a reason to play black. That reason is Bob. He solves burn’s biggest shortcoming which is refueling you hand after inevitably gassing out. In most cases, it survives removal since it’s not the one beating down.
I would play 4 of the new card over any copies Claim//Fame and I'd start taking out Vexing Devil after that. I understand it has won you games before, but I expect that those aren't very common situations and you have to also consider situations where you need a burn spell and topdeck Claim//Fame when it's a dead card.
Preparing for my first major weekend event with burn that will probably end up being 5-6 rounds plus top 8 cut. The maindeck isn't changing, but I'm curious about the general nature of a sideboard going into an open field. I'm familiar enough with my local meta to customize, but Saturdays bring in larger crowds that dilute that known factor. For instance I have been running this a while:
2 relic of progenitus
2 wear/tear
2 smash to smithereens
2 searing blood*
2 exquisite firecraft*
2 kor firewalker
2 path to exile
1 deflecting palm
The ones with the asterisks are the ones that I keep due to the metas of the two stores I generally play. There's enough creature decks and blue based control to justify those slots. Now I'm wondering if I should lower one or both for an additional palm or extra gy hate. Even the relics barely see play now but I refuse to go into a modern event without at least two cards to have ready against gy strategies.
Thoughts?
I would keep the ones you have asterisks by and cut the Kor Firewalkers because I don't think you should expect enough mirror matches to justify them in an open field. I would add a third Path to Exile and a third Firecraft (I'd expect Jeskai all over).
“but I expect that those aren't very common situations“
100% of these last two nights have incorporated at least one interaction of Claim, and several involing Vexing Devil.
I wouldn’t say it wins all games, but the only time I could ever say Claim was a dead card was when a fishman or control player dealt with my black source. But that’s not the card’s fault; it had loads of targets to work from. Especially fame’s double work with Swiftspear.
I could probably see myself going down a Devil and Shard Volley to try two of these new cards. Maybe it’s just our different environments, but Vexing/Claim have been unbelievably powerful.
You know normally I'd be on the "non-stock card is bad" train, but looking at n0bunga's list it's more DS aggro than Burn. I've got more problems with Abbot of Keral Keep than I do Claim // Fame in that kind of list if I'm honest.
edit: Also I think the best place for Sovereign's Bite would be a Mardu list. It should have enough lifegain to overcome the loss due to the more painful manabase compared to Naya or Jund plus you still get extra an 4 Lava Spikes. I'd run like 3 Blackcleave Cliffs, 1 Blood Crypt, and 2 Sacred Foundry
I guess I should reiterate. 2 nights competitively, but this has been in the lab for far more with friends who are on competitive builds of:
- Jeskai
- Merfolk
- Humans
And proxies of
- Elves
- Grixis Pyro
And there were still many cases where Claim/Devil went to work.
A merfolk game in particular took an easy 16 damage from consecutive hits of Claim and Vexing.
Again, I still wouldn’t suggest everyone should be on it, but I also wouldn’t dream of suggesting these are the snap cuts for cards. I’d have to do a lot of testing of this card to see if it’s useful/more useful.
I guess I should reiterate. 2 nights competitively, but this has been in the lab for far more with friends who are on competitive builds of:
- Jeskai
- Merfolk
- Humans
And proxies of
- Elves
- Grixis Pyro
And there were still many cases where Claim/Devil went to work.
A merfolk game in particular took an easy 16 damage from consecutive hits of Claim and Vexing.
Again, I still wouldn’t suggest everyone should be on it, but I also wouldn’t dream of suggesting these are the snap cuts for cards. I’d have to do a lot of testing of this card to see if it’s useful/more useful.
My point wasn't that it was insufficient because I was assuming anything about your competition. My point was that you need 1000 such games before you can draw any conclusions. Anything can happen in a small tournament. Anything can happen in a single GP, for that matter. I'm certain that you'll live the dream with Claim//Fame and Vexing Devil sometimes, but other times your only option will be to reanimate a 2/2 for R that's staring at bigger creatures. It's definitely a mistake to look at Claim+Vexing Devil and your 16 damage situation and heavily weight it based on that particular outcome. You're not particularly likely to see two Devils and two Claim in a game (or 1 Devil and 3 Claim).
I think that Claim//Fame is a snap cut because it simply doesn't fit into a Burn strategy to me. I could see it in a DS aggro deck where you're getting back a 6/6 with it, or in some kind of Zoo deck where you're bringing back a Voice of Resurgence or a Goyf. Burn isn't actually a creature deck, so I don't see any reason to play cards that reanimate them.
well guys, what do you all think about this card The Flame of Keld any situation or match up where it would come up handy?
It's unplayable. Burn has had access to the first two modes at instant speed via Dangerous Wager since Avacyn Restored, and no one plays it because it's not good. The extra mode on turn 3 for Flame of Keld doesn't make it playable.
That’s a fair assessment. And C//F does appear in that RB/Death’s Shadow hybrid list so you do have a point.
I am not trying to state it is the norm, but I also don’t think it doesn’t have a place in burn simply because it doesn’t fit the most atypical burn builds.
All I can say that after the >50 games of vacuum testing with several real archetypes, and the two events are different LGS’, my RB Burn list feels more explosive, and I can owe it to Vexing Devil/Claim’s early interaction for a lot of scenarios where opponents just can’t crawl back. Shard Volley was another out-of-left-field spell that hit them out of no where, which I know isn’t as popular anymore in RWx builds as skull crack and searing blaze are seen in multiples instead.
Granted, I know well enough that doesn’t equate to it being a standard, merely that I have found my comfort zone with this variant, and actually prefer it.
For what it’s worth I’ll try games with this new spell, and without Claim/Devil, and games with some combination of the three and see which yields more consistent results.
May 2018 opposing hate analysis
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The May 2018 deck population is 870 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection. Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
1.000 0.364 0.01264 Ironworks Combo
1.000 0.020 0.05747 WUR Control
2.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
3.000 0.125 0.00920 Martyr Proc
1.000 0.005 0.00575 Other
1.000 0.125 0.00920 Martyr Proc
4.000 0.125 0.00920 Martyr Proc
1.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
1.838 0.860 0.04943 Humans
1.714 0.008 0.01264 Other
1.036 0.560 0.05747 WUR Control
1.000 0.167 0.02759 WU Control
2.000 0.002 0.00345 Other
1.000 0.444 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.556 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.083 0.01379 UR Control
1.000 0.003 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.031 0.03678 G Tron
1.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
1.000 0.208 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.003 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.140 0.05747 WUR Control
1.667 0.857 0.00805 Death and Taxes
1.500 0.250 0.02759 WU Control
2.000 0.375 0.00920 G/W Company
1.500 0.100 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.000 0.333 0.00690 W
1.000 0.250 0.00920 Martyr Proc
1.000 0.111 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
1.467 0.017 0.02529 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.143 0.00805 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.133 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.481 0.03103 Elves
1.000 0.300 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.500 0.286 0.00805 Death and Taxes
2.000 0.333 0.00690 W
1.500 0.105 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
1.667 0.017 0.02414 Other
4.000 0.818 0.01264 R
4.000 0.889 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
4.000 0.857 0.00805 WR
1.000 0.714 0.00805 Mono U Tron
3.000 0.111 0.01034 Merfolk
2.000 0.028 0.04138 Affinity
3.429 0.008 0.00920 Other
1.333 0.857 0.00805 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.043 0.02644 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.111 0.01034 Merfolk
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.028 0.04138 Affinity
1.923 0.015 0.02299 Other
4.000 0.002 0.00460 Other
2.357 1.000 0.03218 Mardu Pyromancer
1.875 0.889 0.02069 B/R Hollow One
2.250 0.727 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.750 0.800 0.00575 Hollow One
1.000 0.043 0.02644 UBR Death's Shadow
1.000 0.024 0.04828 Jund
1.645 0.036 0.04483 Other
2.050 0.952 0.04828 Jund
1.391 0.821 0.03218 Mardu Pyromancer
1.875 0.696 0.02644 UBR Death's Shadow
2.000 1.000 0.01609 Dredge
1.500 0.800 0.00575 Hollow One
1.000 0.222 0.02069 B/R Hollow One
1.667 0.273 0.01264 BGx Midrange
3.000 0.200 0.01724 Living End
2.000 0.091 0.01264 Ironworks Combo
1.000 0.077 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.538 0.045 0.06207 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00805 Mono U Tron
1.000 0.040 0.05747 WUR Control
1.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
1.000 0.006 0.00920 Other
2.000 0.182 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.111 0.010 0.01149 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00920 G/W Company
1.429 0.778 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.333 0.300 0.02299 Vizier Company
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.583 0.014 0.01839 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00230 Other
1.500 0.002 0.00230 Other
3.740 1.000 0.05747 WUR Control
2.917 1.000 0.02759 WU Control
3.250 1.000 0.01379 UR Control
3.375 0.800 0.01149 UR
2.200 1.000 0.00575 Blue Moon
3.000 0.133 0.01724 Living End
2.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
3.069 0.033 0.03448 Other
4.000 0.556 0.01034 Merfolk
4.000 1.000 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.002 0.00345 Other
1.000 0.042 0.02759 WU Control
3.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
3.333 0.667 0.01034 Merfolk
1.898 0.980 0.05747 WUR Control
1.636 0.917 0.02759 WU Control
1.909 0.917 0.01379 UR Control
1.273 0.733 0.01724 UG Infect
2.700 1.000 0.01149 UR
1.333 0.316 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
2.000 1.000 0.00575 Blue Moon
2.000 0.444 0.01034 Merfolk
1.000 0.200 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.182 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.087 0.02644 UBR Death's Shadow
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.077 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.143 0.00805 Mono U Tron
1.613 0.036 0.03793 Other
1.000 0.200 0.01149 UR
4.000 0.200 0.00575 Blue Moon
1.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
2.000 0.048 0.04828 Burn
2.000 0.182 0.01264 R
2.000 0.083 0.01379 UR Control
2.750 0.005 0.00460 Other
2.000 0.002 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00460 Other
2.000 0.074 0.03103 Elves
1.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.087 0.02644 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.003 0.00345 Other
3.000 0.002 0.00805 Other
3.000 0.111 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.571 0.008 0.01264 Other
2.000 0.111 0.01034 Merfolk
1.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
1.000 0.357 0.01609 Dredge
3.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
2.000 0.071 0.01609 Dredge
4.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
3.750 0.005 0.00460 Other
2.000 0.023 0.04943 Humans
1.000 0.023 0.04943 Humans
1.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.167 0.04828 Jund
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
3.000 1.000 0.01264 Ironworks Combo
2.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.028 0.04138 Affinity
1.438 0.018 0.01839 Other
2.600 0.500 0.01149 UR
1.500 0.167 0.01379 UR Control
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Blue Moon
3.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
2.000 0.008 0.00920 Other
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.214 0.04828 Jund
1.500 0.545 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.002 0.00805 Other
2.000 0.536 0.03218 Mardu Pyromancer
1.167 0.140 0.04943 Humans
1.250 0.444 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.500 0.007 0.01264 Other
3.786 0.700 0.02299 Vizier Company
2.750 0.167 0.02759 WU Control
2.000 0.020 0.05747 WUR Control
2.800 0.011 0.01609 Other
1.667 0.786 0.04828 Jund
2.750 0.800 0.01724 UG Infect
2.286 0.778 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
3.000 0.043 0.02644 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.020 0.05747 WUR Control
1.000 0.050 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.955 0.025 0.03333 Other
2.074 0.643 0.04828 Burn
1.250 0.200 0.02299 Vizier Company
2.000 0.333 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.143 0.00805 Death and Taxes
1.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
3.812 0.842 0.02184 Bogles
4.000 0.077 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
4.000 0.923 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
4.000 0.500 0.00920 Martyr Proc
2.000 0.200 0.01724 Living End
3.333 0.158 0.02184 Bogles
2.500 0.048 0.04828 Burn
3.000 0.031 0.03678 G Tron
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
3.000 0.100 0.01149 RG Tron
2.562 0.018 0.02874 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00230 Other
3.040 1.000 0.05747 WUR Control
3.881 1.000 0.04828 Burn
2.500 0.400 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
3.333 0.017 0.01724 Other
1.000 0.071 0.04828 Burn
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.003 0.00575 Other
2.860 1.000 0.05747 WUR Control
1.357 0.583 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.833 0.01379 UR Control
2.211 0.022 0.02414 Other
1.000 0.060 0.05747 WUR Control
1.000 0.042 0.02759 WU Control
1.500 0.002 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.060 0.05747 WUR Control
1.333 0.125 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.002 0.00460 Other
1.727 0.458 0.02759 WU Control
1.500 0.080 0.05747 WUR Control
1.667 0.250 0.01379 UR Control
2.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
1.727 0.013 0.01839 Other
4.000 0.005 0.00575 Other
3.977 1.000 0.04943 Humans
3.900 0.011 0.01149 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
3.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
1.024 0.840 0.05747 WUR Control
1.133 0.625 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.044 0.900 0.05747 WUR Control
1.444 0.750 0.02759 WU Control
1.300 0.833 0.01379 UR Control
1.000 0.600 0.01149 UR
1.200 0.263 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.600 0.00575 Blue Moon
2.000 0.333 0.01034 Merfolk
1.000 0.130 0.02644 UBR Death's Shadow
2.000 0.133 0.01724 UG Infect
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.143 0.00805 Mono U Tron
1.250 0.032 0.04253 Other
1.000 0.133 0.01724 Living End
2.500 0.002 0.00575 Other
1.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
1.500 0.174 0.02644 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
2.400 0.870 0.02644 RG Titanshift
2.500 1.000 0.01149 Amulet Titan
1.750 0.889 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.333 0.071 0.04828 Jund
2.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
2.000 0.020 0.03218 Other
1.000 0.167 0.00690 W
2.917 0.923 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.300 1.000 0.01149 Amulet Titan
4.000 0.002 0.00230 Other
1.273 0.846 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.833 0.007 0.00690 Other
3.846 1.000 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.333 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
2.000 0.006 0.01034 Other
1.333 0.261 0.02644 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.031 0.03678 G Tron
1.000 0.067 0.01724 UG Infect
2.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 1.000 0.01149 Amulet Titan
2.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
2.579 1.000 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
3.500 1.000 0.01379 UR Control
3.875 0.800 0.01149 UR
2.857 1.000 0.00805 Mono U Tron
4.000 1.000 0.00575 Blue Moon
1.000 0.040 0.05747 WUR Control
4.000 0.133 0.01724 Living End
4.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.824 0.020 0.02299 Other
2.571 1.000 0.04828 Jund
1.133 0.750 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.625 1.000 0.00920 G/W Company
2.333 0.545 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.800 1.000 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.074 0.03103 Elves
2.000 0.111 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.781 0.037 0.04023 Other
1.062 0.800 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.375 0.296 0.03103 Elves
2.400 0.556 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.000 0.400 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.357 0.016 0.02414 Other
3.750 1.000 0.00920 Martyr Proc
1.000 0.296 0.03103 Elves
1.000 0.400 0.02299 Vizier Company
2.000 0.286 0.00805 Death and Taxes
1.000 0.333 0.00690 W
1.000 0.111 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.007 0.01609 Other
1.000 0.111 0.03103 Elves
1.000 0.100 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.000 0.006 0.00920 Other
2.750 0.889 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.000 0.143 0.00805 Death and Taxes
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.600 0.011 0.01264 Other
3.000 0.007 0.00805 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
1.667 0.003 0.00345 Other
2.000 0.003 0.00690 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00460 Other
4.000 0.125 0.00920 Martyr Proc
3.000 0.125 0.00920 Martyr Proc
4.000 0.002 0.00460 Other
1.667 1.000 0.01724 UG Infect
3.000 0.778 0.01034 Merfolk
2.000 0.133 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.400 0.006 0.00690 Other
1.765 0.472 0.04138 Affinity
1.077 0.867 0.01724 UG Infect
2.667 0.600 0.01149 Amulet Titan
1.600 0.714 0.00805 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.053 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
1.500 0.002 0.00345 Other
1.231 0.542 0.02759 WU Control
1.917 1.000 0.01379 UR Control
1.100 0.200 0.05747 WUR Control
1.500 0.400 0.00575 Blue Moon
1.000 0.133 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
1.400 0.017 0.02069 Other
1.000 0.020 0.05747 WUR Control
1.400 0.333 0.01724 UG Infect
1.000 0.003 0.00345 Other
1.455 0.733 0.01724 UG Infect
1.167 0.167 0.04138 Affinity
1.000 0.125 0.03678 G Tron
1.250 0.200 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.000 0.111 0.03103 Elves
1.000 0.182 0.01264 R
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Blue Moon
1.000 0.111 0.01034 Merfolk
1.000 0.125 0.00920 G/W Company
1.000 0.100 0.01149 RG Tron
1.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
2.000 0.020 0.02874 Other
1.000 0.005 0.00575 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
2.500 0.957 0.02644 UBR Death's Shadow
2.667 0.003 0.00345 Other
1.789 0.826 0.02644 UBR Death's Shadow
2.000 0.333 0.04138 Affinity
1.750 0.005 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.143 0.00805 Mono U Tron
1.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
2.000 0.300 0.01149 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.077 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.667 0.003 0.00575 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
1.000 0.100 0.01149 Amulet Titan
3.256 1.000 0.04943 Humans
3.667 1.000 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
3.857 1.000 0.00805 WR
3.667 0.857 0.00805 Death and Taxes
4.000 1.000 0.00690 W
3.278 0.021 0.02184 Other
1.000 0.028 0.04138 Affinity
2.000 0.125 0.00920 Martyr Proc
1.000 0.003 0.00805 Other
3.400 0.006 0.00575 Other
1.000 0.006 0.00805 Other
2.774 0.969 0.03678 G Tron
2.300 1.000 0.01149 RG Tron
2.000 0.087 0.02644 RG Titanshift
2.500 0.133 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.100 0.01149 Amulet Titan
2.167 0.007 0.00805 Other
1.143 0.292 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.020 0.05747 WUR Control
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.700 0.833 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.160 0.05747 WUR Control
1.571 0.008 0.01264 Other
1.938 1.000 0.03678 G Tron
2.000 1.000 0.01149 RG Tron
1.143 1.000 0.00805 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.005 0.00460 Other
1.000 0.222 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.143 0.00805 Mono U Tron
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.105 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.050 0.02299 Vizier Company
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.111 0.01034 Merfolk
2.444 0.010 0.01379 Other
1.000 0.083 0.02759 WU Control
3.694 1.000 0.04138 Affinity
1.000 0.006 0.00920 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.111 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
1.000 0.091 0.01264 R
1.933 0.469 0.03678 G Tron
2.000 0.889 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
2.000 0.700 0.01149 RG Tron
1.000 0.091 0.01264 R
1.667 0.010 0.01149 Other
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.011 0.01149 Other
2.000 0.043 0.02644 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.005 0.00460 Other
3.000 1.000 0.03678 G Tron
2.900 1.000 0.01149 RG Tron
1.714 1.000 0.00805 Mono U Tron
1.000 0.444 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
2.167 0.007 0.00805 Other
1.889 0.818 0.01264 Ironworks Combo
1.000 0.571 0.00805 Mono U Tron
1.333 0.333 0.01034 Eldrazi Tron
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.667 0.007 0.00690 Other
Card fractions: This is averaged over the whole meta and is the fraction of decks that play the card in the maindeck/sideboard without taking into account how many copies they play. These give a general idea of what cards to expect from a randomly chosen deck. Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (15.06%), Scavenging Ooze (12.76%), Lightning Helix (12.64%), Logic Knot (10.69%), Collective Brutality (10.23%), Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (10.23%), Remand (8.39%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Scavenging Ooze (13.75%), Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (12.64%), Cryptic Command (11.93%), Collective Brutality (11.12%), Remand (8.90%), Meddling Mage (8.39%), Lightning Helix (6.57%).
Hate cards by meta decks: Go here if you want to see what kind of hate cards specific decks play.
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Meta composition: This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name. Some of these deck names might be fuzzy, so the results are approximate.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
5.75% WUR Control
4.94% Humans
4.83% Burn
4.83% Jund
4.14% Affinity
3.68% G Tron
3.22% Mardu Pyromancer
3.10% Elves
2.76% WU Control
2.64% RG Titanshift
2.64% UBR Death's Shadow
2.30% Vizier Company
2.18% UR Gifts Storm
2.18% Bogles
2.07% B/R Hollow One
1.72% Living End
1.72% UG Infect
1.61% Dredge
1.49% Ad Nauseam
1.38% UR Control
1.26% Ironworks Combo
1.26% BGx Midrange
1.26% R
1.15% UR
1.15% RG Tron
1.15% Amulet Titan
1.03% Eldrazi Tron
1.03% Eldrazi and Taxes
1.03% Merfolk
1.03% G/R Land Destruction
0.92% G/W Company
0.92% Martyr Proc
0.80% WR
0.80% Death and Taxes
0.80% Mono U Tron
0.69% W
0.57% Blue Moon
0.57% Zoo
0.57% Hollow One
0.46% WG
0.46% WRG
0.46% WUG Hatebears
0.46% 5c Humans
0.46% Lantern Control
0.46% Abzan
0.46% UBR Control
0.46% U/R Prison
0.46% WUBRG
0.34% Domain Zoo
0.34% WB Control
0.34% UBR
0.34% WUB
0.34% UBRG Scapeshift
0.34% WUR Storm
0.34% WRG Titanshift
0.34% Br Hollow One
0.34% Rg Eldrazi
0.34% Goodstuff 3c
0.34% Gruul Land Loss
0.34% WURG Knightfall
0.34% Kiki Chord
0.34% R/G Eldrazi
0.23% Grishoalbrand
0.23% WURG Copycat
0.23% RG
0.23% BG Tron
0.23% U/W Spirits
0.23% Mill
0.23% Gruul Eldrazi
0.23% WBRG
0.23% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.23% Skred Red
0.23% Jeskai Tempo
0.23% BRG
0.23% WUBR
0.23% WBG
0.23% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.23% WG Tron
0.23% BRG Death's Shadow
0.11% Goblins
0.11% Eldrazi Rg
0.11% WB
0.11% WUB Control
0.11% Grisel Vengeance
0.11% WB Hatebears
0.11% Tokens
0.11% Kci
0.11% Gifts 4c
0.11% UWr Midrange
0.11% Eldrazi Aggro
0.11% WUG Knightfall
0.11% Eldra Tron
0.11% WBR Death's Shadow
0.11% Orzhov
0.11% Tooth And Nail
0.11% Rb Hollow One
0.11% WU
0.11% WUBR Death's Shadow
0.11% UBG
0.11% Wilted Abzan
0.11% WG Allies Company
0.11% Selesnya Value
0.11% 8-Rack
0.11% UBR Delver
0.11% Jeskai Ascendancy
0.11% UBRG Delver
0.11% G
0.11% Grixis Pyromancer
0.11% KCI
0.11% Gw Value
0.11% Eldarzi Stompy
0.11% UB
0.11% WRG Hatebears
0.11% Goodstuff 4c
0.11% WG Hatebears
0.11% Abzan Reanimator
0.11% Bw Eldrazi
0.11% WURG Scapeshift
0.11% RG Storm
0.11% Gitrog Monster
0.11% WUBRG Death's Shadow
0.11% Grixis Delver
0.11% Bant Company
0.11% UWx Midrange
0.11% R/g Eldrazi
0.11% URG Scapeshift
0.11% Gr Eldrazi
0.11% Taking Turns
0.11% Jeskai Breach
0.11% Mono Red Prison
0.11% Ghalta Stompy
0.11% Creature Toolbox
0.11% Instant Reanimator
0.11% WUG Control
0.11% Jeskai Aggro
0.11% Jeskai Midrange
0.11% URG Control
0.11% Tezzerator
0.11% Collected Bant
0.11% Izzet Kiki Moon
0.11% U/R Pyromancer
0.11% Mikokoro Humans
0.11% Goblin Aggro
0.11% R/G Hollow Vine
0.11% Bant Eldrazi
0.11% Temur Moon
0.11% Slivers
Enchantments:
2.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.002 0.00345 Other
4.000 0.200 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.250 0.00920 Martyr Proc
2.500 0.002 0.00230 Other
1.200 0.139 0.04138 Affinity
1.000 0.333 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.261 0.821 0.03218 Mardu Pyromancer
1.800 1.000 0.01149 UR
3.778 1.000 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
2.889 0.750 0.01379 UR Control
4.000 0.636 0.01264 R
2.600 1.000 0.00575 Blue Moon
1.000 0.111 0.02069 B/R Hollow One
2.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
2.000 0.028 0.04138 Affinity
3.000 0.018 0.02299 Other
1.929 0.389 0.04138 Affinity
1.500 0.214 0.03218 Mardu Pyromancer
1.667 0.167 0.02069 B/R Hollow One
2.000 0.400 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.200 0.01149 UR
2.000 0.400 0.00575 Hollow One
3.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Blue Moon
1.000 0.053 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
2.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.083 0.01379 UR Control
2.250 0.018 0.01954 Other
1.667 0.300 0.01149 RG Tron
1.000 0.368 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.714 0.00805 WR
3.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
1.600 0.625 0.00920 G/W Company
1.000 0.071 0.04828 Jund
1.000 0.062 0.03678 G Tron
2.000 0.037 0.03103 Elves
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.111 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.667 0.007 0.01379 Other
4.000 0.002 0.00460 Other
4.000 1.000 0.00920 G/W Company
1.429 0.778 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.333 0.300 0.02299 Vizier Company
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.583 0.014 0.01839 Other
4.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
4.000 1.000 0.02184 Bogles
1.850 0.833 0.02759 WU Control
2.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.260 0.05747 WUR Control
1.000 0.083 0.02759 WU Control
1.429 0.008 0.01034 Other
4.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.704 0.03103 Elves
1.000 0.950 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.429 0.875 0.00920 G/W Company
1.000 0.333 0.00690 W
2.000 0.143 0.00805 Death and Taxes
1.000 0.111 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
1.118 0.020 0.02644 Other
4.000 1.000 0.04828 Burn
4.000 0.091 0.01264 R
3.600 0.455 0.01264 R
1.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
3.000 0.002 0.00575 Other
4.000 1.000 0.02184 Bogles
3.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.091 0.01264 Ironworks Combo
1.000 0.028 0.04138 Affinity
1.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
1.886 0.972 0.04138 Affinity
2.000 0.909 0.01264 Ironworks Combo
1.769 0.015 0.01494 Other
4.000 0.625 0.00920 Martyr Proc
1.000 0.042 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.375 0.00920 G/W Company
1.000 0.005 0.00690 Other
1.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
2.000 0.842 0.02184 Bogles
4.000 0.002 0.00230 Other
4.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
3.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
2.000 0.300 0.01149 Amulet Titan
3.000 0.125 0.00920 Martyr Proc
2.105 1.000 0.02184 Bogles
4.000 0.002 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
1.000 0.143 0.00805 WR
3.000 0.003 0.00575 Other
1.000 0.003 0.00575 Other
1.000 0.105 0.02184 Bogles
2.000 0.167 0.00690 W
1.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.417 0.01379 UR Control
1.000 0.333 0.01379 UR Control
1.000 0.600 0.00575 Blue Moon
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.007 0.01264 Other
2.000 0.130 0.02644 RG Titanshift
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
2.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
3.812 0.842 0.02184 Bogles
4.000 0.077 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.001 0.00460 Other
4.000 0.923 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
4.000 0.500 0.00920 Martyr Proc
2.000 0.200 0.01724 Living End
3.333 0.158 0.02184 Bogles
2.500 0.048 0.04828 Burn
3.000 0.031 0.03678 G Tron
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
3.000 0.100 0.01149 RG Tron
2.562 0.018 0.02874 Other
3.143 0.778 0.02069 B/R Hollow One
3.833 0.429 0.03218 Mardu Pyromancer
2.400 0.357 0.01609 Dredge
3.000 0.148 0.03103 Elves
3.250 0.174 0.02644 UBR Death's Shadow
3.000 0.800 0.00575 Hollow One
4.000 0.200 0.01724 Living End
3.500 0.048 0.04828 Jund
3.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
3.417 0.014 0.01379 Other
1.000 0.067 0.01724 UG Infect
2.000 0.143 0.00805 Death and Taxes
1.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.091 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.250 0.005 0.00920 Other
4.000 0.002 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.250 0.00920 Martyr Proc
2.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
1.000 0.050 0.02299 Vizier Company
3.846 1.000 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
1.000 0.040 0.05747 WUR Control
4.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
1.214 0.609 0.02644 RG Titanshift
2.000 0.263 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
4.000 1.000 0.02184 Bogles
1.500 0.133 0.01724 UG Infect
2.000 0.002 0.00230 Other
1.839 0.738 0.04828 Burn
1.778 0.750 0.04138 Affinity
2.043 0.958 0.02759 WU Control
1.889 0.667 0.03103 Elves
2.143 0.737 0.02184 Bogles
2.143 1.000 0.00805 WR
2.714 1.000 0.00805 Death and Taxes
2.500 0.667 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.800 0.100 0.05747 WUR Control
2.000 0.375 0.00920 Martyr Proc
2.000 0.333 0.00690 W
1.000 0.077 0.01494 Ad Nauseam
3.000 0.125 0.00920 G/W Company
3.000 0.111 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
1.828 0.033 0.05402 Other
1.250 0.005 0.00460 Other
1.500 0.750 0.00920 Martyr Proc
1.250 0.111 0.04138 Affinity
1.000 0.042 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.001 0.00230 Other
1.000 0.042 0.02759 WU Control
1.200 0.600 0.05747 WUR Control
1.700 0.417 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.003 0.00345 Other
4.000 0.111 0.01034 Merfolk
1.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
2.235 0.895 0.02184 Bogles
1.500 0.200 0.01149 Amulet Titan
1.000 0.133 0.01724 UG Infect
1.600 0.006 0.01379 Other
2.213 0.940 0.05747 WUR Control
1.750 0.833 0.02759 WU Control
1.000 0.273 0.01264 BGx Midrange
1.000 0.067 0.01724 Living End
1.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
1.000 0.067 0.01724 UG Infect
1.842 0.022 0.02644 Other
1.000 0.053 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.846 0.867 0.01724 UG Infect
1.667 0.444 0.03103 Elves
1.500 0.056 0.04138 Affinity
2.000 0.003 0.00690 Other
3.895 1.000 0.02184 Bogles
1.750 0.211 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.632 0.02184 Bogles
1.789 1.000 0.02184 Bogles
2.000 0.053 0.02184 Bogles
4.000 0.542 0.02759 WU Control
4.000 1.000 0.01034 Merfolk
4.000 0.400 0.00575 Blue Moon
4.000 0.100 0.01149 UR
4.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
2.333 0.857 0.00805 Mono U Tron
2.000 0.083 0.01379 UR Control
1.000 0.001 0.00345 Other
1.917 1.000 0.02759 WU Control
2.722 0.947 0.02184 Bogles
2.000 0.593 0.03103 Elves
1.200 0.200 0.05747 WUR Control
2.667 1.000 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
2.500 1.000 0.00920 Martyr Proc
2.000 0.875 0.00920 G/W Company
3.000 0.857 0.00805 WR
1.167 0.143 0.04828 Burn
2.400 0.714 0.00805 Death and Taxes
2.000 0.250 0.02299 Vizier Company
1.600 1.000 0.00575 Zoo
3.000 0.667 0.00690 W
2.500 0.182 0.01264 BGx Midrange
2.000 0.023 0.04943 Humans
2.071 0.048 0.06437 Other
2.000 0.105 0.02184 Bogles
3.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.028 0.04138 Affinity
2.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
2.000 0.273 0.01264 Ironworks Combo
1.500 0.056 0.04138 Affinity
1.500 0.002 0.00230 Other
2.000 0.053 0.02184 UR Gifts Storm
1.000 0.105 0.02184 Bogles
1.000 0.105 0.02184 Bogles
4.000 1.000 0.01034 G/R Land Destruction
4.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
2.000 0.125 0.00920 G/W Company
4.000 0.009 0.01034 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.067 0.01724 UG Infect
4.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
1.000 0.500 0.00920 G/W Company
1.200 0.006 0.01149 Other
1.571 0.350 0.02299 Vizier Company
2.000 0.857 0.00805 WR
1.400 0.833 0.00690 W
1.400 0.625 0.00920 G/W Company
1.000 0.222 0.01034 Eldrazi and Taxes
1.000 0.056 0.04138 Affinity
1.000 0.143 0.00805 Death and Taxes
2.000 0.036 0.03218 Mardu Pyromancer
4.000 0.200 0.00575 Zoo
1.312 0.018 0.02529 Other
1.000 0.001 0.00115 Other
Maindeck: The top cards are Search for Azcanta (10.57%), Blood Moon (9.54%), Eidolon of the Great Revel (4.94%), Courser of Kruphix (4.02%), Spreading Seas (2.99%), Rancor (2.64%), Detention Sphere (2.41%).
Sideboard: The top cards are Rest in Peace (20.11%), Stony Silence (19.31%), Eidolon of Rhetoric (7.82%), Leyline of the Void (7.01%), Ghirapur Aether Grid (6.67%), Blood Moon (5.86%), Worship (5.29%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Sooooooo I went 3-2 Saturday, beating tron, ponza and bogles while losing to jeskai control (literally because I forgot to draw a card off a Relic crack, lesson learned do not play competitive REL events hungover) and kiki jiki combo. The surprising note was that there were no humans decks, but a lot of mardu, tron, and jund.
I think I am going to drop the kor firewalkers from the sideboard completely. I have yet to play against another burn deck - I guess people just aren't a big fan of it.
To start, my point about RB Burn isn't that the RB Burn spell base is inadequate, because it's quite good. What I don't like is that there's no catch-all creature answer to replace Path, and I'm of the opinion that the major reason you splash any given color(other than mono-R not having a sufficient spell base) is because of the sideboard options it buys you. Fatal Push kills some stuff, but not the big stuff. Self-inflicted Wound gives them the choice and has restrictions on when it's useful. Terminate deals with almost everything, but it's 2 mana.
A while ago, I estimated that a 1CMC heavy build reaches lethal about 1-2 mana earlier than a typical RW build. I don't think that's enough to be 1 turn earlier, but means that a 1cmc heavy build is just more comfortable with fewer lands in play and could win on 2 lands faster than RW could.
It's true that black spells won't trigger Kor Firewalker, but almost no one plays Kor Firewalker in the first place and that means that it shouldn't be an important deck building factor. The same goes for Deflecting Palm. To my knowledge, it's not played in any deck but Burn and it's not a staple card. That means that it's not important to be able to blank that card through the technicalities of the difference between life loss and damage.
I don't think Gonti's Machinations is even playable, personally. It's also not really your savior against Leyline of Sanctity. You're unlikely to draw 12 damage worth of them in a game fast enough to beat Leyline. Maybe it buys you one turn before you've gone too far under a Leyline to win. That's not really a big deal, either. I also don't even play any enchantment hate in my RW deck because Burn isn't the boogeyman right now and that means that Leyline doesn't show up much.
I don't play Kor Firewalker because Burn isn't the boogeyman and I'd rather play more broadly relevant sideboard cards. I also wouldn't say that Burn "needs" Deflecting Palm in RW. I don't like the card and I think it's a trap, so I don't play it.
I don't think that Sovereign's Bite is suddenly a strong reason to play black, which is what I meant by bringing up Lightning Strike. I think black is interesting, but I don't think it's quite there because of the sideboard. I prefer operating at instant speed with Boros Charm and Lightning Helix.
I have liked the lower curve you can achieve with black however. Also, Gonti's has been decent for me, but I need a lot more experience overall with burn. It's not a 4 of spell it seems, but pretty good with 2 or 3.
I honestly agree with most everything you've said. As I mentioned in my post the RW variant is still the strongest variant and there's no question here. However, I do think it's a lot closer than it was before. I also think burn having 8 spells that deal three and gain life for 1-2 mana (gonti and soveriegn respectively) is relevant. Don't worry I'm not attacking you or your reasoning. Just pointing out that RB is getting closer to RW and it's really just one good side board card away (imo) from being a true rival. I also believe Fatal Push in black is a trap. (I know you used that line about deflecting palm.)
It's great in decks like abzan, jund, etc but isn't really that good in burn. You're right that we want to hit a lot more than Fatal Push allows and even with the weakness of being two mana Terminate is probably RB Burn's best option. Especially since it runs more one drops it doesn't hurt as badly being two mana. The only part I really disagree with in your assessment is with Gonti's machination. I feel it's about as relevant as some of our creatures. It's really good early on but a bad top deck later in the game. I think it's best compared to Wild Nacatl in this regard.
Then again this might be a case of different metas here. In my meta Go Wide decks are common, boggles are everywhere, and running into multiple burn decks over the course of an FNM is common. This means life gain, self inflicted wound, and Rakdos charm are pretty relevant. Rakdos Charm often being two mana for 4+ damage.
P.S. I know it sounds like we're talking past each other because I'm aware your opinion is RB lacks side board options. I do differ in opinion that depending on meta black side board cards are relevant with the black spells in the shell.
First night:
Game 1 - Merfolk 2-0
Game 2 - Humans 2-1
Game 3 - Pox 0-2
Last night:
Game 1: Storm 2-0
Game 2: Jeskai control 2-1
Game 3: RG Eldrazi 2-1
My deck is RB
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Vexing Devil
3 Dark Confidant
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
Spells
4 Bump in the Night
4 Lava Spike
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Shard Volley
4 Rift Bolt
3 Claim // Fame
4 Arid Mesa
2 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
7 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
2 Grim Lavamancer
3 Destructive Revelry
1 Kari Zev’s Expertise
3 Guerrilla Tactics
1 Self-Inflicted Wound
2 Ensnaring Bridge
3 Exquisite Firecraft
As for the new card, seems like a strictly better Alms, and at least worth jamming. The problem is what to cut?
I’ve tried all the cute variants black has and I’d agree that Gonti’s Machinations isn’t great. It was a build-around-me card where I needed painlands to improve the reliability of triggering it, and was never really happy to topdeck one.
I’d concur that RW burn decks may be more resilient, and the better build of burn, but there’s a lot to be said about RB’s explosive raw power - It was how I was able to do as well as I did. The games vs Merfolk and Storm they each took 12-16 damage by turne 1-3 off repeated Vexing Devil/Claim.
I wouldn’t say a 2 mana Alms of the Vein is suddenly a reason to play black. That reason is Bob. He solves burn’s biggest shortcoming which is refueling you hand after inevitably gassing out. In most cases, it survives removal since it’s not the one beating down.
2 relic of progenitus
2 wear/tear
2 smash to smithereens
2 searing blood*
2 exquisite firecraft*
2 kor firewalker
2 path to exile
1 deflecting palm
The ones with the asterisks are the ones that I keep due to the metas of the two stores I generally play. There's enough creature decks and blue based control to justify those slots. Now I'm wondering if I should lower one or both for an additional palm or extra gy hate. Even the relics barely see play now but I refuse to go into a modern event without at least two cards to have ready against gy strategies.
Thoughts?
I agree that Terminate is RB's best creature removal spell, and I just think that 2CMC is too much of a burden.
Agree to disagree on Gonti's. I also never bought into Wild Nacatl as a Burn card. I buy into the idea that nearly everything in the deck has to do something when you topdeck it, and the only exceptions are Eidolon and Grim Lavamancer because they provide unblockable damage if they stick.
Of course, you know your personal meta and what you should play in it better than I ever can. I was commenting on "the meta" that you should expect in a large tournament, and Kor Firewalker isn't worth playing there. I don't think Self-inflicted Wound is worth playing there either. If it's good in your meta, you should play it, but it's not something you would get much mileage from in an Open or a GP.
But I will probably go down to 1 and increase firecraft to 2. That card flat out won my matches vs Jeskai.
I would play 4 of the new card over any copies Claim//Fame and I'd start taking out Vexing Devil after that. I understand it has won you games before, but I expect that those aren't very common situations and you have to also consider situations where you need a burn spell and topdeck Claim//Fame when it's a dead card.
I would keep the ones you have asterisks by and cut the Kor Firewalkers because I don't think you should expect enough mirror matches to justify them in an open field. I would add a third Path to Exile and a third Firecraft (I'd expect Jeskai all over).
100% of these last two nights have incorporated at least one interaction of Claim, and several involing Vexing Devil.
I wouldn’t say it wins all games, but the only time I could ever say Claim was a dead card was when a fishman or control player dealt with my black source. But that’s not the card’s fault; it had loads of targets to work from. Especially fame’s double work with Swiftspear.
I could probably see myself going down a Devil and Shard Volley to try two of these new cards. Maybe it’s just our different environments, but Vexing/Claim have been unbelievably powerful.
edit: Also I think the best place for Sovereign's Bite would be a Mardu list. It should have enough lifegain to overcome the loss due to the more painful manabase compared to Naya or Jund plus you still get extra an 4 Lava Spikes. I'd run like 3 Blackcleave Cliffs, 1 Blood Crypt, and 2 Sacred Foundry
- Jeskai
- Merfolk
- Humans
And proxies of
- Elves
- Grixis Pyro
And there were still many cases where Claim/Devil went to work.
A merfolk game in particular took an easy 16 damage from consecutive hits of Claim and Vexing.
Again, I still wouldn’t suggest everyone should be on it, but I also wouldn’t dream of suggesting these are the snap cuts for cards. I’d have to do a lot of testing of this card to see if it’s useful/more useful.
Bob was a huge, huge, huge benefit for rb burn.
My point wasn't that it was insufficient because I was assuming anything about your competition. My point was that you need 1000 such games before you can draw any conclusions. Anything can happen in a small tournament. Anything can happen in a single GP, for that matter. I'm certain that you'll live the dream with Claim//Fame and Vexing Devil sometimes, but other times your only option will be to reanimate a 2/2 for R that's staring at bigger creatures. It's definitely a mistake to look at Claim+Vexing Devil and your 16 damage situation and heavily weight it based on that particular outcome. You're not particularly likely to see two Devils and two Claim in a game (or 1 Devil and 3 Claim).
I think that Claim//Fame is a snap cut because it simply doesn't fit into a Burn strategy to me. I could see it in a DS aggro deck where you're getting back a 6/6 with it, or in some kind of Zoo deck where you're bringing back a Voice of Resurgence or a Goyf. Burn isn't actually a creature deck, so I don't see any reason to play cards that reanimate them.
It's unplayable. Burn has had access to the first two modes at instant speed via Dangerous Wager since Avacyn Restored, and no one plays it because it's not good. The extra mode on turn 3 for Flame of Keld doesn't make it playable.
I am not trying to state it is the norm, but I also don’t think it doesn’t have a place in burn simply because it doesn’t fit the most atypical burn builds.
All I can say that after the >50 games of vacuum testing with several real archetypes, and the two events are different LGS’, my RB Burn list feels more explosive, and I can owe it to Vexing Devil/Claim’s early interaction for a lot of scenarios where opponents just can’t crawl back. Shard Volley was another out-of-left-field spell that hit them out of no where, which I know isn’t as popular anymore in RWx builds as skull crack and searing blaze are seen in multiples instead.
Granted, I know well enough that doesn’t equate to it being a standard, merely that I have found my comfort zone with this variant, and actually prefer it.
For what it’s worth I’ll try games with this new spell, and without Claim/Devil, and games with some combination of the three and see which yields more consistent results.
The following is a lot of data that's tough to digest, but it might be helpful to you to know what kind of lifegain to expect at various times and what counterspells people are playing. This analysis comes from MTGGoldfish data with some cleaning procedure applied to it to try to clean up any bad deck names. I then go through these deck lists and find instances of "counter target", "lifelink", and "gain N life"/"gains N life" in the card text. On top of that, I search for Leyline of Sanctity, Oketra's Last Mercy, Chalice of the Void, Phyrexian Unlife, and Spellskite. The May 2018 deck population is 870 decks. Cards that show up less than 0.5% of the time are not printed, and I've also removed some cards that don't affect us like Disdainful Stroke and Ceremonious Rejection.
Per card splits: Go here if you want to find a list of what decks play specific cards.
Maindeck: The top cards are Cryptic Command (15.06%), Scavenging Ooze (12.76%), Lightning Helix (12.64%), Logic Knot (10.69%), Collective Brutality (10.23%), Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (10.23%), Remand (8.39%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Scavenging Ooze (13.75%), Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (12.64%), Cryptic Command (11.93%), Collective Brutality (11.12%), Remand (8.90%), Meddling Mage (8.39%), Lightning Helix (6.57%).
Compare to the top cards from last month Collective Brutality (19.21%), Dispel (12.44%), Kitchen Finks (9.50%), Negate (8.80%), Obstinate Baloth (8.29%), Scavenging Ooze (6.67%), Spellskite (6.67%).
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
This is just a core dump of the fraction of decks out of the total for this month with each name.
5.75% WUR Control
4.94% Humans
4.83% Burn
4.83% Jund
4.14% Affinity
3.68% G Tron
3.22% Mardu Pyromancer
3.10% Elves
2.76% WU Control
2.64% RG Titanshift
2.64% UBR Death's Shadow
2.30% Vizier Company
2.18% UR Gifts Storm
2.18% Bogles
2.07% B/R Hollow One
1.72% Living End
1.72% UG Infect
1.61% Dredge
1.49% Ad Nauseam
1.38% UR Control
1.26% Ironworks Combo
1.26% BGx Midrange
1.26% R
1.15% UR
1.15% RG Tron
1.15% Amulet Titan
1.03% Eldrazi Tron
1.03% Eldrazi and Taxes
1.03% Merfolk
1.03% G/R Land Destruction
0.92% G/W Company
0.92% Martyr Proc
0.80% WR
0.80% Death and Taxes
0.80% Mono U Tron
0.69% W
0.57% Blue Moon
0.57% Zoo
0.57% Hollow One
0.46% WG
0.46% WRG
0.46% WUG Hatebears
0.46% 5c Humans
0.46% Lantern Control
0.46% Abzan
0.46% UBR Control
0.46% U/R Prison
0.46% WUBRG
0.34% Domain Zoo
0.34% WB Control
0.34% UBR
0.34% WUB
0.34% UBRG Scapeshift
0.34% WUR Storm
0.34% WRG Titanshift
0.34% Br Hollow One
0.34% Rg Eldrazi
0.34% Goodstuff 3c
0.34% Gruul Land Loss
0.34% WURG Knightfall
0.34% Kiki Chord
0.34% R/G Eldrazi
0.23% Grishoalbrand
0.23% WURG Copycat
0.23% RG
0.23% BG Tron
0.23% U/W Spirits
0.23% Mill
0.23% Gruul Eldrazi
0.23% WBRG
0.23% WBRG Death's Shadow
0.23% Skred Red
0.23% Jeskai Tempo
0.23% BRG
0.23% WUBR
0.23% WBG
0.23% UBRG Death's Shadow
0.23% WG Tron
0.23% BRG Death's Shadow
0.11% Goblins
0.11% Eldrazi Rg
0.11% WB
0.11% WUB Control
0.11% Grisel Vengeance
0.11% WB Hatebears
0.11% Tokens
0.11% Kci
0.11% Gifts 4c
0.11% UWr Midrange
0.11% Eldrazi Aggro
0.11% WUG Knightfall
0.11% Eldra Tron
0.11% WBR Death's Shadow
0.11% Orzhov
0.11% Tooth And Nail
0.11% Rb Hollow One
0.11% WU
0.11% WUBR Death's Shadow
0.11% UBG
0.11% Wilted Abzan
0.11% WG Allies Company
0.11% Selesnya Value
0.11% 8-Rack
0.11% UBR Delver
0.11% Jeskai Ascendancy
0.11% UBRG Delver
0.11% G
0.11% Grixis Pyromancer
0.11% KCI
0.11% Gw Value
0.11% Eldarzi Stompy
0.11% UB
0.11% WRG Hatebears
0.11% Goodstuff 4c
0.11% WG Hatebears
0.11% Abzan Reanimator
0.11% Bw Eldrazi
0.11% WURG Scapeshift
0.11% RG Storm
0.11% Gitrog Monster
0.11% WUBRG Death's Shadow
0.11% Grixis Delver
0.11% Bant Company
0.11% UWx Midrange
0.11% R/g Eldrazi
0.11% URG Scapeshift
0.11% Gr Eldrazi
0.11% Taking Turns
0.11% Jeskai Breach
0.11% Mono Red Prison
0.11% Ghalta Stompy
0.11% Creature Toolbox
0.11% Instant Reanimator
0.11% WUG Control
0.11% Jeskai Aggro
0.11% Jeskai Midrange
0.11% URG Control
0.11% Tezzerator
0.11% Collected Bant
0.11% Izzet Kiki Moon
0.11% U/R Pyromancer
0.11% Mikokoro Humans
0.11% Goblin Aggro
0.11% R/G Hollow Vine
0.11% Bant Eldrazi
0.11% Temur Moon
0.11% Slivers
Enchantments:
The first column is the average copies per deck of this archetype if the deck plays this card, so that this number is not affected by a deck that doesn't play the card. The second column is the fraction of decks of this archetype playing this card, and this number is affected by decks that don't play the card.
Link to previous month: April 2018 (apologies if it goes to the wrong spot on the page, it's post 1262).
I think I am going to drop the kor firewalkers from the sideboard completely. I have yet to play against another burn deck - I guess people just aren't a big fan of it.