I've been running 19 for awhile now, honestly the difference is negligible. You will still get flooded with 19 or screwed with 20, I just like having that extra Reejerey or Master of Waves in the main in place of a land. I also don't run any lands in the sideboard and probably won't in the new meta unless chalice suddenly falls out of favor against a good chunk of the meta which I don't see happening.
I did some testing with 1 ghost quarter main on and off, I reached the same conclusion as Nikachu. The utility is nice but more often than not you are just targeting your own lands to get blue mana for interaction.
You don't need to have a sample size to perform statistics. A hypergeometric calculator will tell you whether it's a good or bad idea if you do some calculations. I did an extensive post on Reddit a few months back, I'll try to dig it up. My conclusion was that 20 is best.
Edit:
20 lands - Land in Opener: 0 = 4.8% 1 = 19.9% 2 = 32.4% 3 = 27% 4 = 12.4% 5 = 3.1% 6+= 0.4%
The 19 land deck has a 58.6% chance of being in the sweet spot (2 or 3 lands). If we consider 0 and 6+ land hands to be mulligans every time, 5 landers to be mulligans half the time (a bit generous), and 1 landers to be mulligans 62% of the time (we have vial 38.4% of the time we have a 1 lander. Other 1 landers are keepable but ill leave them out) then the 19 land deck mulligans 21.1% of the time.
The 20 land deck is in the sweet spot 59.4% of the time and mulligans 19% of the time.
This data favors 20 lands as being more consistent. This 2% difference really falls in the 1 land hands. I find that on the draw they are sometimes keepable even without vial considering the number of cantrips that are in the deck. However, keeping a 1 lander is a good way to lose an otherwise winnable game.
This doesn't look in depth at hitting land drops for Master of Waves.
YMTC: We need a spikey red enchantment. My creations:
RR
Whenever a player taps a nonbasic land, [Card] deals 2 damage to them.
-or-
R
Whenever a player would gain life, flip a coin. If heads, that player loses that much life instead. If tails sacrifice [card] and that player gains that life as per usual.
I mean, duh having 1 more land is more consistent...that is just how math works, 1/3 of your deck as opposed to less than 1/3. Technically speaking having more than 20 is best, but we have vials so that lets us cheat a little from time to time. You can win a 1 land hand with a vial in it making the 2% difference between 19-20 very very minor. Personal shuffling also takes into account number of lands and mulligans since even if we had 50% lands if we didn't shuffle properly we could still get 1 land hands or even zero land hands. Learning to properly shuffle without stacking your deck takes both practice and good sleeves.
I spoke too soon, managed to trade for 3 AEther Vial today at a Legacy event I visited. Once my Mutavaults come in the mail I'll hopefully be ready to start playing this deck.
How playable is this deck without Chalice of the Void or Cavern of Souls? What's a good sideboard replacement for Chalice, more cheap counters?
I spoke too soon, managed to trade for 3 AEther Vial today at a Legacy event I visited. Once my Mutavaults come in the mail I'll hopefully be ready to start playing this deck.
How playable is this deck without Chalice of the Void or Cavern of Souls? What's a good sideboard replacement for Chalice, more cheap counters?
I took out Negate to put in Chalice and I believe this is what Nikachu has said to do in one of his sideboard videos if you want to run it.
Notes:
- I think people are going to try too hard doing fancy things, especially blue stuff. So, less disruption and more creatures to sledgehammer them as smoothly as possible.
- Yep, that's just *one* Spreading Seas maindeck. I like drawing it late to punch through a board stall, but I hate drawing it anytime before about.. turn 5 for reasons I've talked about before roughly along the lines of "is not a creature".
- I love Phimage, but I strongly believe that Kira and Phimage should never be in the same deck. They're exact opposite meta calls on the nature of spot removal in the format.
I played small tournament yesterday.
Beat Jund (felt like a bye, we played additional game for (my) fun, 3:0), Affinity and mirror before losing in the finals against Living End.
I kept a hand without Vial and it is hard to win game 1 like that. Then I drew 7 lands, 3 Vials and my Chalice got Beast Withined while counters were hiding. 0:2
Not used to losing against that deck but he drew everything for the win. Hopefully we meet in the League two weeks from now, I need a vengeance!
There was a Merfolk deck that finished 5th and 32nd at the SCG Classic in Baltimore. The top 8 consisted
1. Scapeshift
2. Infect
3. Jund
4. G/R aggro
5. Merfolk
6. Infect
7. Scapeshift
8. Abzan Company
Outside the 8 though control did have a strong showing. Quite a few decks in the Top 32.
Here is the list for reference for the 5th place Merfolk deck.
Not surprised that Spell Pierce is back - I expect a healthy amount of interaction in the coming metagame. I'll probably be packing them back in the mainboard as well.
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Thanks for the report and congrats on your success.
Great feedback on Spell Pierce, TEdge and Phimage. On a bit of a tangent, but would including Spell Pierce in main preclude the inclusion of Chalice in SB? I only have 1x Chalice at the moment and have been contemplating picking up 2 additional copies... but I'm unsure how well it plays with the rest of our counter-spell package. Seems like you'd want Chalice & Negate or Spell Pierce and... not-Chalice. Yes?
Chalice of the Void in the sideboard and Spell Pierce in the mainboard rarely interact with each other in my experience. Most matchups where you want the Chalices are ones where you're swapping Spell Pierce for Negate anyway.
It seems that Tectonic Edge is not the way to go at the moment and I was wrong when said it would be good in control infested metagame. It's because AV can draw you additional lands but my reasoning for it wasn't screwing them but just to have an answer for their manlands but I guess Spreading Seas is enough for that.
Tec edge is still a massive house against BGx and you can bet your bottom dollar BGx players will be back in force in the new meta..And its still decent against Ux control decks regardless of AV..
I just dislike how slow tec edge is, we can block or Harbinger any man lands. Trons lands are the real problem which need to be dealt with before they hit 4 and just slam that Ugin. I would still prefer ghost quarter
The gut shots had been +1 Tectonic Edge and + 1 Tidebinder before the event, but since there were no tron players and a Mono Green Stompy (which I forgot about till round 1 when I saw him play) I felt like this was a fine decision for the elf and Affinity player who were there, and had a 2nd Affinity player walk in before the event start... Hindsight, I probably should of left in the 2nd tidebinder and just take out tectonic edges all together as there was only 1 Control player and 3 People on some version of Mono Red Goblins.
I didn't take notes so I will try to recall the rounds as best I can.
Round 1: Affinity 2-1
One of the two Affinity players. He could of been on anything but has been on this for the past several weeks.
Game one he has to many flyer, a Plating, I do not have a Vial so was unable to flash in my image to copy a Harbinger to bounce and block something.
Out: - 2 Spell Pierce
- 2 Spreading Sea's
- 2 Cursecatcher (might of been 1 cc and 1 MoW)
In: 2 Gut shot
1 Dismember
3 Hurkyl's Recall
Game two I had a good mix of removal and Harbingers which allowed me to win the game. He didnt't have a really fast start, but it would of won him the game had I not drawn into a gut shot, harbinger, lord which helped me close out the game.
Game 3 was Similar. Plenty of removal and Harbingers to slow him down. Never saw the Recalls, did'n't need them but it was good knowing I had them.
Round 2: U/R Thing in the Ice 2-0
This kid shares cards with my roommate. He doesn't usually play modern so I asked him after first round what he was playing. He said U/R Thing in the Ice. I asked if I could see his list and his reply was "You can see when we play each other"....Well he called it.
Game 1 He leads with a Delver which I Dismember on turn 2. He doesn't really do anything impressive. I think he got stuck on 3 lands for a bit while I had double Mutavault and an Island which was keeping me from doing stuff as well. I finally draw more lands and start dropping threats while he can only counter or remand one of my cards at a time. He starts to flood but its too late.
In: 1 Dismember
2 Dispel
1 Dismember
Out:
1 Master of Waves
2 Spell Pierce (these probably should of stayed in instead of Dispels)
Game 2: Again, Slightly unimpressed by his deck. He landed a Delver turn one which blind flipped turn two. He then tapped out to play a Young Pyro. I took my next turn to Dismember the Delver, and hoped to start dropping dudes to clog the ground. TUrn 4 I dropped a Master of Waves to do exactly that. He drops a Thing in the Ice, but doesn't do anything else. He's able to get two counters off it before I dismember it. He doesn't do much after that.
Round 3 Elves!!! 2-0!!
I think I went to 6 game one but kept a dismember in my opener going first. I dismember his first creature (A mana dork that wasn't a Heritage Druid)and then Spreading Sea's his Only forest on my turn 2 (Disclaimer: doesn't stop him from playing elves next turn). After that I just start dropping dudes and he doesn't really do anything explosive. Lucky me. I won Game 1.
In 2 Dispel
1 Dismember
1 Tidebinder Mage
2 Gut SHot
Out:
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
1 Merrow Reejerey
2 MoW
2 Spell Pierce ( he runs 1 Gen Wave, which I should of kept these in for, but he never saw it)
Game 2 I Mull to 4....4!! I expect this game to be quick. I keep Gut shot, MoW and 2 Lands. I draw into a Silvergill after Shooting his first turn dork again. I he drops Druid on turn 2 followed by a Elite on turn 3. I continue to draw creatures or removal and I kill his important creatures hoping to keep him off tempo enough to at least be a fight. He ends up flooding while holding two lands and I get through the few creatures he had plus a choke.
Round 4: 0-0-3 Affintiy
We ID and split packs, playing for the odd pack (which he won). I usually turn packs into store credit (my store gives $3 per pack in store credit) but because it was Shadows and I've only opened a box, I opened my 6 packs. Got a Arlinn Kord. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to hear my report guys. I'm getting ready for SCG States, which is why I'm running AV. I have another in the mail and hope to pick a few up online to get better feel for them.
Thanks for the report, Mo-town, and congrats on beating both Elves (!) and Affinity (!!) in the same 4-round tournament.
As for the long-running Tectonic Edge debate... truth be told, I've never been a fan of the Edge. I recognize its value against manlands and decks like Scapeshift, but I just don't think it's all that powerful because of how slow it is. BGX Midrange and UXX Control may be on the upswing in this metagame, but I think that I need to see how much of the metagame they occupy before I reach for my playset.
The way I look at Tectonic Edge is just how Rothgar13 put it. While slow, it has high value against B/G/x and U/x/x decks. With Amulet and Eldrazi being out of the format, I think depending on your local meta, we can either include it, or exclude it in our builds. If your going to a PPTQ or a somewhat big event I would probably pack some number in my 75. it's slow, but I think its still better than Ghost Quarters because of SS and Sea's Claim. If I know in advance that my LGS won't have a lot of grindy non blue decks, I will cut down on the numbers of Edges I run (Like I did last night).
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"In my opinion, we don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks." Calvin & Hobbes Quotes
Calvin : You can't just turn on creativity like a faucet. You have to be in the right mood.
Hobbes : What mood is that?
Calvin : Last-minute panic.
Decks I'm playing:
Modern: U Merfolk
Standard: I dislike Standard ATM
- Yep, that's just *one* Spreading Seas maindeck. I like drawing it late to punch through a board stall, but I hate drawing it anytime before about.. turn 5 for reasons I've talked about before roughly along the lines of "is not a creature".
If you want to draw even 1 copy a game, then 1 copy is the wrong number to play. Maybe there are no Podless Pod, Abzan, or CoCo decks in your meta, but this is a mistake for a number of reasons.
Even early it can shut down an Inkmoth Nexus from Affinity or Infect and make Utopia Sprawl fall off. 4 is the correct number, no less than 3 for sure.
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I did some testing with 1 ghost quarter main on and off, I reached the same conclusion as Nikachu. The utility is nice but more often than not you are just targeting your own lands to get blue mana for interaction.
UMerfolkU
Legacy
UMerfolkU
Commander
RWBAlesha, Who Smiles At DeathRWB
Edit:
20 lands - Land in Opener: 0 = 4.8% 1 = 19.9% 2 = 32.4% 3 = 27% 4 = 12.4% 5 = 3.1% 6+= 0.4%
19 lands - Land in Opener 0 = 5.8% 1 = 22.1% 2 = 33.2% 3 = 25.4% 4 = 10.7% 5 = 2.5% 6+= 0.3%
The 19 land deck has a 58.6% chance of being in the sweet spot (2 or 3 lands). If we consider 0 and 6+ land hands to be mulligans every time, 5 landers to be mulligans half the time (a bit generous), and 1 landers to be mulligans 62% of the time (we have vial 38.4% of the time we have a 1 lander. Other 1 landers are keepable but ill leave them out) then the 19 land deck mulligans 21.1% of the time.
The 20 land deck is in the sweet spot 59.4% of the time and mulligans 19% of the time.
This data favors 20 lands as being more consistent. This 2% difference really falls in the 1 land hands. I find that on the draw they are sometimes keepable even without vial considering the number of cantrips that are in the deck. However, keeping a 1 lander is a good way to lose an otherwise winnable game.
This doesn't look in depth at hitting land drops for Master of Waves.
Whenever a player taps a nonbasic land, [Card] deals 2 damage to them.
-or-
R
Whenever a player would gain life, flip a coin. If heads, that player loses that much life instead. If tails sacrifice [card] and that player gains that life as per usual.
Fires Rf Salvation
UMerfolkU
Legacy
UMerfolkU
Commander
RWBAlesha, Who Smiles At DeathRWB
How playable is this deck without Chalice of the Void or Cavern of Souls? What's a good sideboard replacement for Chalice, more cheap counters?
I took out Negate to put in Chalice and I believe this is what Nikachu has said to do in one of his sideboard videos if you want to run it.
Cavern of Souls is nice but not necessary.
4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Merrow Reejerey
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
3 Master of Waves
Disruption
3 Disrupting Shoal
3 Chalice of the Void
1 Echoing Truth
1 Spreading Seas
4 Aether Vial
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Mutavault
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
9 Island
1 Echoing Truth
4 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Negate
3 Spreading Seas
2 Gut Shot
2 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Chalice of the Void
Notes:
- I think people are going to try too hard doing fancy things, especially blue stuff. So, less disruption and more creatures to sledgehammer them as smoothly as possible.
- Yep, that's just *one* Spreading Seas maindeck. I like drawing it late to punch through a board stall, but I hate drawing it anytime before about.. turn 5 for reasons I've talked about before roughly along the lines of "is not a creature".
- I love Phimage, but I strongly believe that Kira and Phimage should never be in the same deck. They're exact opposite meta calls on the nature of spot removal in the format.
Twitch channel
I am not even trying to port Merfolk from one to other format, Modern and Legacy are not the same.
Beat Jund (felt like a bye, we played additional game for (my) fun, 3:0), Affinity and mirror before losing in the finals against Living End.
I kept a hand without Vial and it is hard to win game 1 like that. Then I drew 7 lands, 3 Vials and my Chalice got Beast Withined while counters were hiding. 0:2
Not used to losing against that deck but he drew everything for the win. Hopefully we meet in the League two weeks from now, I need a vengeance!
1. Scapeshift
2. Infect
3. Jund
4. G/R aggro
5. Merfolk
6. Infect
7. Scapeshift
8. Abzan Company
Outside the 8 though control did have a strong showing. Quite a few decks in the Top 32.
Here is the list for reference for the 5th place Merfolk deck.
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=100779
and for 32nd place
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=100795
In other news... SCG Baltimore results. Beware of Scapeshift?
Legacy: Merfolk U; Shadow UB; Eldrazi Stompy C
Pauper: Delver U
Vintage: Merfolk U
Primers:
As per the announcement that has been up since April 4 (http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/683941-modern-subforums-after-the-april-4-ban), starting today, April 11, we are returning to our strict enforcement of the banlist discussion rules and other rules in the Modern Forum Rules thread (http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/649273-modern-forum-rules-updated-4-3-2016). If you see someone breaking this rule, report it and don't respond: staff will handle it.
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Only discuss bans in the banlist thread
Users may not post with the primary purpose of discussing, debating, or speculating about the banlist or unbanning/banning cards outside of the Official Current Modern Banlist Discussion thread, which can be found stickied in Modern general. Follow all thread rules when posting there.
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Users may mention bans outside of the banlist thread if the primary purpose is not to discuss, debate, or speculate on the banlist or the banning/unbanning of cards. The primary purpose of the reference must be related to the thread in which the user is posting. For example, saying "Card X is probably getting banned on Monday. Should we swap Card A for Card B in our sideboard?" is okay in a deck thread. Responding to that with "Card X is definitely not getting banned on Monday; it will be Card Y" is a violation of this rule. PM the staff if you have any questions; posts that cross the line will be warned/infracted at the moderators' discretion.
Great feedback on Spell Pierce, TEdge and Phimage. On a bit of a tangent, but would including Spell Pierce in main preclude the inclusion of Chalice in SB? I only have 1x Chalice at the moment and have been contemplating picking up 2 additional copies... but I'm unsure how well it plays with the rest of our counter-spell package. Seems like you'd want Chalice & Negate or Spell Pierce and... not-Chalice. Yes?
Legacy: Merfolk U; Shadow UB; Eldrazi Stompy C
Pauper: Delver U
Vintage: Merfolk U
Primers:
Tec edge is still a massive house against BGx and you can bet your bottom dollar BGx players will be back in force in the new meta..And its still decent against Ux control decks regardless of AV..
Bant Eldrazi
UW Control
U Merfolk
Legacy
Merfolk
UR Delver
How many players were present?
UMerfolkU
Legacy
UMerfolkU
Commander
RWBAlesha, Who Smiles At DeathRWB
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Cavern of Souls
2 Wanderwine Hub
4 Mutavault
10 Island
2 Dismember
4 Spreading Seas
2 Spell Pierce
4 Aether Vial
1 Kira Great Glass-Spinner
4 Lord of Atlantis
3 Merrow Reejerey
2 Phantasmal Image
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Master of Waves
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 CurseCatcher
3 Harbinger of the Tides
1 Tidebinder Mage
3 Negate
1 Ancestral Visions (Soon to be 2)
2 Tectonic Edge
3 Hurkly's Recall
1 Dismember
2 Gut Shot
The gut shots had been +1 Tectonic Edge and + 1 Tidebinder before the event, but since there were no tron players and a Mono Green Stompy (which I forgot about till round 1 when I saw him play) I felt like this was a fine decision for the elf and Affinity player who were there, and had a 2nd Affinity player walk in before the event start... Hindsight, I probably should of left in the 2nd tidebinder and just take out tectonic edges all together as there was only 1 Control player and 3 People on some version of Mono Red Goblins.
I didn't take notes so I will try to recall the rounds as best I can.
Round 1: Affinity 2-1
One of the two Affinity players. He could of been on anything but has been on this for the past several weeks.
Game one he has to many flyer, a Plating, I do not have a Vial so was unable to flash in my image to copy a Harbinger to bounce and block something.
Out: - 2 Spell Pierce
- 2 Spreading Sea's
- 2 Cursecatcher (might of been 1 cc and 1 MoW)
In: 2 Gut shot
1 Dismember
3 Hurkyl's Recall
Game two I had a good mix of removal and Harbingers which allowed me to win the game. He didnt't have a really fast start, but it would of won him the game had I not drawn into a gut shot, harbinger, lord which helped me close out the game.
Game 3 was Similar. Plenty of removal and Harbingers to slow him down. Never saw the Recalls, did'n't need them but it was good knowing I had them.
Round 2: U/R Thing in the Ice 2-0
This kid shares cards with my roommate. He doesn't usually play modern so I asked him after first round what he was playing. He said U/R Thing in the Ice. I asked if I could see his list and his reply was "You can see when we play each other"....Well he called it.
Game 1 He leads with a Delver which I Dismember on turn 2. He doesn't really do anything impressive. I think he got stuck on 3 lands for a bit while I had double Mutavault and an Island which was keeping me from doing stuff as well. I finally draw more lands and start dropping threats while he can only counter or remand one of my cards at a time. He starts to flood but its too late.
In: 1 Dismember
2 Dispel
1 Dismember
Out:
1 Master of Waves
2 Spell Pierce (these probably should of stayed in instead of Dispels)
Game 2: Again, Slightly unimpressed by his deck. He landed a Delver turn one which blind flipped turn two. He then tapped out to play a Young Pyro. I took my next turn to Dismember the Delver, and hoped to start dropping dudes to clog the ground. TUrn 4 I dropped a Master of Waves to do exactly that. He drops a Thing in the Ice, but doesn't do anything else. He's able to get two counters off it before I dismember it. He doesn't do much after that.
Round 3 Elves!!! 2-0!!
I think I went to 6 game one but kept a dismember in my opener going first. I dismember his first creature (A mana dork that wasn't a Heritage Druid)and then Spreading Sea's his Only forest on my turn 2 (Disclaimer: doesn't stop him from playing elves next turn). After that I just start dropping dudes and he doesn't really do anything explosive. Lucky me. I won Game 1.
In 2 Dispel
1 Dismember
1 Tidebinder Mage
2 Gut SHot
Out:
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
1 Merrow Reejerey
2 MoW
2 Spell Pierce ( he runs 1 Gen Wave, which I should of kept these in for, but he never saw it)
Game 2 I Mull to 4....4!! I expect this game to be quick. I keep Gut shot, MoW and 2 Lands. I draw into a Silvergill after Shooting his first turn dork again. I he drops Druid on turn 2 followed by a Elite on turn 3. I continue to draw creatures or removal and I kill his important creatures hoping to keep him off tempo enough to at least be a fight. He ends up flooding while holding two lands and I get through the few creatures he had plus a choke.
Round 4: 0-0-3 Affintiy
We ID and split packs, playing for the odd pack (which he won). I usually turn packs into store credit (my store gives $3 per pack in store credit) but because it was Shadows and I've only opened a box, I opened my 6 packs. Got a Arlinn Kord. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to hear my report guys. I'm getting ready for SCG States, which is why I'm running AV. I have another in the mail and hope to pick a few up online to get better feel for them.
Evil Beware!....We have waffles.
"In my opinion, we don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks." Calvin & Hobbes Quotes
Calvin : You can't just turn on creativity like a faucet. You have to be in the right mood.
Hobbes : What mood is that?
Calvin : Last-minute panic.
Decks I'm playing:
Modern: U Merfolk
Standard: I dislike Standard ATM
As for the long-running Tectonic Edge debate... truth be told, I've never been a fan of the Edge. I recognize its value against manlands and decks like Scapeshift, but I just don't think it's all that powerful because of how slow it is. BGX Midrange and UXX Control may be on the upswing in this metagame, but I think that I need to see how much of the metagame they occupy before I reach for my playset.
Legacy: Merfolk U; Shadow UB; Eldrazi Stompy C
Pauper: Delver U
Vintage: Merfolk U
Primers:
Evil Beware!....We have waffles.
"In my opinion, we don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks." Calvin & Hobbes Quotes
Calvin : You can't just turn on creativity like a faucet. You have to be in the right mood.
Hobbes : What mood is that?
Calvin : Last-minute panic.
Decks I'm playing:
Modern: U Merfolk
Standard: I dislike Standard ATM
If you want to draw even 1 copy a game, then 1 copy is the wrong number to play. Maybe there are no Podless Pod, Abzan, or CoCo decks in your meta, but this is a mistake for a number of reasons.
Even early it can shut down an Inkmoth Nexus from Affinity or Infect and make Utopia Sprawl fall off. 4 is the correct number, no less than 3 for sure.