I don't find the chancellor/fury combo a natural fit with kuldotha. First, kuldotha wants colorless cards, fury wants red. Second, the only card you have that benefits from a second combat phase is the signal pest. You're probably get the worst of both worlds.
Spec.ops: your list is running 20 mana sources, as opposed to the conventional 18-mana setup. Any reason for the deviation? Since you'll never cast chancellor or fury, your average CMC is actually lower than most lists, so I'd expect closer to 16 or 17 mana sources.
"I don't find the chancellor/fury combo a natural fit with kuldotha. First, kuldotha wants colorless cards, fury wants red. Second, the only card you have that benefits from a second combat phase is the signal pest. You're probably get the worst of both worlds. Also, you can't possibly support 4 Kuldotha and 4 Shrapnel Blasts with 8-12 artifacts (note you probably don't want to pitch Pests...)."
You are right they are not a natural fit at first sight. Fury wants red and Kuldotha wants colorless artifacts; however, they are both great at putting bodies on the field - fast. That's where they come together and because of that I seem to have a consistent close at least during my limited play testing. As for the color issues I attempted to solve that by replacing Springleaf Drum with Simian Spirit Guide in the MB. Originally, I had it the other way around. And, I wont lie, I have not cast Furry when I had it in hand because I was always able to empty my hand for the close. It will require more testing that's for sure, but I think Furry's pay off is worth the look into before I alter the Kaldotha MB heavily i.e. Artarka's Command and required mana.
For the second battle phase I have Surgewhacker, Bushwhacker, and Signal Pest all providing a pump thought the duration of the turn not current battle phase. So, I see a second attack very rewarding if it can be pulled off. But, as I said I was unable to play it when I did have it and it is combo-jank; meaning, I can always draw a lot of none desired cards than a more typical build. But, it has worked so far. If I get a chance to play this Sunday I'll report the results.
@SphinxP:
"your list is running 20 mana sources, as opposed to the conventional 18-mana setup. Any reason for the deviation? Since you'll never cast chancellor or fury, your average CMC is actually lower than most lists, so I'd expect closer to 16 or 17 mana sources."
Yes. Last report I had a horrible experience using the preferred mana set up, 14 Mountains + 4 SSG or 15 Mountains + 3 SSG. For many a game I drew one mana...one. And, I shuffled the deck many times. Did I win off one mana? Some, but it took a lot of skill. If I simply just had the second mana it would have been GG most of the time. I guess it was just bad luck. So, I have upped the mana count based off that experience. Truth be told you are correct I could get away with 16 or less with SSG included. However, this deck is still in its infancy for me to make those calls right now. I just need time on the table with it.
Hey guys, I went 5-0 on an MTGO Modern League yesterday! In my excitement that my version of the deck would get on MTGoldfish and Wizards site, I tweeted Lee Sharpe to ask about how it worked. https://twitter.com/mtg_lee/status/695044752991858688
Turns out I didn't win the lottery and it didn't get posted
I'll post it for you guys in case you are curious. I called it "Goblin Deck Wins"
I beat a Rally the Ancestors Deck (handily), I got pretty lucky to get a 2-1 victory against Affinity, won 2-0 against a r/w hatebears/kiki deck, 2-0 against a g/w beatdown deck that played scavenging ooze (scary), and won 2-1 in the final match against Jund. The deck was clicking and it was awesome! It felt so good to win those matches! I might be bothered to give a full report, but I'm a little busy the next few days.
TopDeckTown - congrats on the win! That must feel great! How did Eidolon and Vexing Devil work out for you? And yes, I'd be very interested in reading your full report if you have the opportunity to get to it
I thought it might be interesting to look at how different land counts affected things such as mulligans and likelihood of hitting 3 mana on turn 3. All of the calculations were done via hypergeometric calculator.
If we assume that every 0 and 5+ land hand is a mulligan, and 90% of every 4 land hand is a mulligan, then the percentage likelihood of being forced to mulligan a hand due to mana at each amount is as follows:
15 Lands
17.08%
16 Lands
16.70%
17 Lands
16.77%
18 Lands
17.28%
19 Lands
17.95%
20 Lands
19.06%
There's a pretty clear minimum at 16 to 17 lands, meaning that if you're purely looking to minimize the amount that you're forced to mulligan due to land count, you should be running between 16 and 17 lands. However, there's also the consideration of how many land drops you hit.
At 17 mana sources, you will average 2.55 lands by turn 3 on the play and 2.83 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 2.7 lands by turn 3.
At 18 mana sources, you will average 2.7 lands by turn 3 on the play and 3 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 2.85 lands by turn 3.
At 19 mana sources, you will average 2.85 lands by turn 3 on the play and 3.17 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 3.0 lands by turn 3.
At 20 mana sources, you will average 3.0 lands by turn 3 on the play and 3.33 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 3.17 lands by turn 3.
From this, you should be shooting for 19 mana sources to maximize the likelihood that you hit exactly three of your land drops in the first three turns, no more or no less.
Combining these two metrics, 17 to 19 sources seems like the happy medium of providing reasonable mulligan consistency along with reasonable third land drop consistency. Of course, Simian Spirit Guide throws a wrench in all the simple math. If we assume that T1 SSG is equivalent in value to hitting your third land drop (which may or may not be true depending on your list), then it's mostly a wash whether it's a land or a SSG in hand. However, SSG probably prevents you from keeping 1-land hands if it's your only mana source.
With 4 SSG/14 Land, 22% of your mana sources are SSG. With 26.8% of 18-source opening hands containing a single mana source, the SSG's will force you to mulligan an additional 5.42% of the time due to only having a SSG for mana.
With 3 SSG/15 land, the number is 4.06% additional likelihood to mulligan.
With 2 SSG/16 land, the number is 2.71% additional likelihood to mulligan.
With 1 SSG/17 land, the number is 1.36% additional likelihood to mulligan.
The pros of SSG are that they can power out more explosive early turn plays. Assuming that having a SSG to use for more early mana is equivalent to having your third land drop, the downside of running SSG is a 1.36% increased likelihood of having to mulligan a hand per SSG in your deck.
As a final note, cantrips throw this whole thing right out the window, because your deck effectively functions as a 56 card deck, and each cantrip is worth around 30% of a land. If you're running a build with Gitaxian Probe or Manamorphose, consider looking closely at the number of lands you run, since you can value each cantrip as roughly equivalent to one third of a land, because your deck is around one third lands.
TL:DR 16-17 lands give the most optimal mulligan keep rate, 19 lands gives the highest likelihood of hitting your 3rd land drop exactly, SSG makes you mulligan 1.36% more frequently per SSG in your deck, and cantrips are worth a third of a land, since they will draw you a land around that much of the time.
Wow, we have another math aficionado in our midst. Great run down the land, SSG, and cantraps; however, it is still unclear to me since I'm not as mathematically inclined as you are good sir. I don't know if I speak for everyone but is there a way to better present your data so it is easier for us to apply it to our various builds?
Can you just post some quick comments regarding your sideboarding? I can use any insight you can offer before saturday. How did the white splash work?
Thanks man
Congratz! I like the goblin/burn hybrid!
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Legacy:B The Gate // B Pox Modern:RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox EDH:RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal Tiny Leaders:BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
With this setup, I feel the following about my matchups overall: Tier 1
Affinity (favored)
Burn (50-50)
Tron (favored)
Eldrazi (favored)
Jund (50-50)
Infect (favored)
Merfolk (favored)
Tier 2:
Abzan Company (bad?)
Scapeshift (probably favored)
Grishoalbrand (favored)
Naya Company (bad?)
Jeskai Control (50-50)
Living End (50-50)
Abzan (favored)
Gruul Zoo (50-50)
Bogles (Bad)
Kiki Chord (not sure)
Ad Nauseum (favored)
Death and Taxes (favored)
Elves (50-50, possibly favored)
Tier 3:
Storm (favored)
Grixis control (even-favored)
Hatebears (not sure)
UW control (favored)
Grixis Delver (favored)
BW tokens (favored)
Jeskai Kiki (not sure)
UR Delver (favored)
Temur Delver (Favored)
Titan Shift (unsure)
I am having a hard time trying to figure out what I care about most in my matchups. I have been using this as a guide to the meta for the SCG Regionals.
I am not sure I am prepared enough for these matchups with my current configuration. I cannot have a plan for every single deck I might see, but I may need help with these:
Boggles
Scapeshift
Living End (since I am not running Mogg War Marshals)
Abzan Company
And I might need a better hedge against burn.
A lot of these 50-50 matchups are probably decided by the coin flip sadly.
Grafdigger's cage - with the increase in popularity of Chord/Company decks I think this is a necessary inclusion. Also hits Grisel decks.
Any insight is much much appreciated.
Also - how many uses can you think of for Burrenton Forge Tender? Deflecting Palm?
Legacy:B The Gate // B Pox Modern:RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox EDH:RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal Tiny Leaders:BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
@Jwelt: atm you have 5 lightning bolts on your list
LOL - oops. I wish.
Any feedback you can offer?
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Legacy:B The Gate // B Pox Modern:RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox EDH:RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal Tiny Leaders:BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
Ok, so I got a chance yesterday to take Goblins through an 8 man, went 3-0 with it. But I'm going to be honest - I lucked out on the matchups. All were pretty much non-interactive in the "early" game decks. Here's what I was running
In match 1: I faced WB Eldrazi. Went 2-0 against him. Game 1: All he played was lands. Killed him on turn 3 game (Fury of the Horde after a sacing 3 lands to Devastating Summons + Reckless Bushwhacker).
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth. Game 2: I mulligan to 6. See Mountain on top - scry it to bottom as I have 3 lands in hand. He casts duress against me turn 1 (Im not sure why he has duress in a deck against goblins. Seems bad.) I'm holding 2 Goblin Guides and a FSD. That was about all he did. I drew Kytheon my next turn; goblin grenade the turn after that, and he was dead on turn 4.
In match 2: I faced WB Eldrazi again! Went 2-0 against him as well. Game 1: Was much like game 1 against the deck above. Except I think it was a turn 4 kill.
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth. Game 2: This one was a lot more tricky and it was bad playing on his part that won it for me.
His turn 1: He thoughtsiezes me. Sees Sacred Foundry X3. Mutagenic Growth. Foundry Street. Reckless Bushwhacker. Goblin Guide. He takes Goblin Guide.
My Turn 1: I draw Boros Charm. Play Foundry Street and pass the turn.
His turn 2: Plays a land and passes.
My Turn 2: I draw Fury of the Horde. I could Mutagenic on FSD and cast Reckless and swing for 12 with Fury. But I don't want to risk his having removal for FSD. So i attack for 1 and pass.
His turn 3: He plays Blight Herder (i have nothing in exile.)
My Turn 3: I cast Goblin Bushwhacker unkicked. Then cast Reckless Bushwhacker. Swing with all 3. He blocks my 4/1 Foundry with Blight Herder. I Mutagenic Foundry killing them both. He takes 4 and is down to 13.
His turn 4: He plays Ruin Processor. (again, i have nothing in exile.)
My turn 4: I draw and play Kytheon. I have Goblin Bushwhacker and Reckless Bushwhacker in play. But i pass the turn rather than attack.
His turn 5: He plays a land. Thinks for a while and then passes the turn.
My turn 5: I draw Simian Spirit Guide. I attack with all 3 of my creatures. He blocks Kytheon with Processor. I make Kytheon indestructible. He takes 3 from the bushwhackers. Kytheon flips. I make Reckless indestructible.
His turn 6: He plays Ulamog the Ceaseless Hunger. He exiles my flipped Kytheon & Goblin Bushwhacker (instead of Reckless which is mistake #1.) Then he passes the turn to me.
My turn 6: I draw Goblin Bushwhacker. I play Simian Spirit Guide and pass the turn.
His Turn 7: On his turn he attacks with both of his creatures (mistake #2, since he didn't do anything else and left the field open.). I block Ulamog with SSG so that i don't die.
My Turn 7: I draw Chancellor of the Forge. Kick Goblin Bushwhacker. Swing for 5. He doesn't respond which shows me he has no answer. So I pitch Boros Charm and Chancellor to Fury and swing for another 5. Game over.
Match 3: Beat Ad Nauseum 2-1.
Game 1: Steamrolled him on turn 3. Had 2 goblin guides, 3 memnites and a kicked bushwhacker coming his way.
Sided in: 2X Wear / Tear, 2X Skullcrack.
Game 2: He managed to drag out long enough with Pherexian Unlife and Angel's Grace to combo off.
Game 3: Was intense. On turn 3 - I attack with all my guys; it's more than enough to do lethal. He casts Angel's Grace and has Leyline of Sanctity in play. I have Skullcrack, Lightning Bolt, and Wear / Tear in my hand. I realize at that point that Skullcrack is bad in this matchup. It cannot stop angel's grace or Unlife (neither prevent damage). If my opponent happens to be playing Darkness - it can stop that, but not all Nauseum players play darkness. But i devise a plan. I Tear his Leyline of Sanctity on my turn with 1 mana untapped. He attempts to play Pherexian Unlife on his turn. I lightning bolt him; he concedes. GG.
Note: I quit playing Mono-Red and went back to Boros. I've been having way more success with it, which prompted me to enter the 8 man!
Note 2: I constantly think Fury of the Horde isn't good enough since it's a dead card about 50% of the time. But when analyzing results. It is responsible for a lot of kills. And a lot of them come out of nowhere on an unsuspecting opponent.
Note 3: This is my 6th 8 man I've taken goblins to. Since it's single elimination now - some of those are 0 and exits, some 1-1's. 2 where i went 2-1. But this is my first 3-0.
Note 4: I think I'm about ready to take this thing to a daily. Hopefully draw into matches vs. Eldrazi, Tron & Ad Nauseum. Hopefully avoid any kind of Izzet control or lifegain decks.
Note 5: I cheated a bit on the lands, but that's because I am running 8 2 drops instead of 10. It was never really a factor in any game.
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'We are goblinkind, heirs to the mountain empires of chieftains past. Rest is death to us, and arson is our call to war.' - Goblin Chieftain
Also that list has 5 colorless lands mainboard, 4 of them being cavern of souls. Is it possible that they can work together even with atarkas command mainboard?
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Modern: B 8Rack RX Goblins BG Elves (Attempting) UBW Mill G Stompy UB Tezzerator
Legacy: W Stax
Unfortunately I didn't have enough time to goldfish enough games to check on potentially wasted G from BTE. I did, however, get to play at my Modern FNM yesterday. The event was 6 rounds, and below is the list I played:
There's definitely potential here, but there is much room for improvement. I finished 3-3, which was better than I expected. I beat GR Tron, Infect, and UB Mill (deck was sweet), and lost to Jeskai Control, Mono B Eldrazi, and Zoo due to a few mistakes. Aside from my hastily put together sideboard, I did want to share a few things.
Mana availability - Perhaps from a design flaw, but I always wanted more mana. While access to SSG can grant explosive starts, sometimes the apes just left me hanging. There were a few games where I was stuck on one mana (missing land drops on turns 2-6 against Tron) and access to another land would have secured me a win. Mana screw happens, but I can definitely build this deck better. My next goldfish test will be to remove SSG entirely and move toward 19-20 lands total.
Devastating Summons - This is a great finisher, giving two triggers to FSD (even with saccing zero lands) and triggering Prowess on MSS. Three land seems to be the sweet spot for this card, allowing you to follow up with either Bushwhacker. However having multiples in hand is not the greatest, so if I choose to continue with Summons I may only run a singleton copy. Feels good man.
BTE and Git Probe - The green mana from BTE was wasted a total of 3 times across the 6 rounds (16 games total). In my opinion this isn't too terrible, but that is still mana left unspent that could be turned into potential damage. Gitaxian Probe wiffed. A lot. While getting information and drawing a card for 2 life is great, I think there are better options out there for this slot. I plan on testing a combination of Probes and Mutagenic Growths to get a feel for where I want to be. Fortunately Manamorphose has been great in testing and in real games.
Reckless Bushwhacker - When its good, its REALLY good. When it sits in your hand with nothing to cast beforehand, its extremely lackluster. I'm sure there were some incorrect plays I did last night when attempting to set up Reckless, but I can say that unless you're running a ton of ways to trigger surge I believe the correct number to run is 3. I consider Reckless, like Devastating Summons, a finisher or a way to get in that last damage to secure a win the next turn. With that being said, I did not find multiple Reckless helpful.
I also plan on toying around with Matter Reshaper and some lords, thinking Rakdos colors.
Watching the pro tour...it seems like this deck would be very soft to Eldrazi. Chalice for 1 turn 1, beefy blockers turn 2 onwards, and lots of Eldrazi scions seems like a recipe for beating what goblins is trying to do.
Watching the pro tour...it seems like this deck would be very soft to Eldrazi. Chalice for 1 turn 1, beefy blockers turn 2 onwards, and lots of Eldrazi scions seems like a recipe for beating what goblins is trying to do.
A turn 2 Thought-Knot Seer is absolutely backbreaking against this deck, which isn't saying much because that's pretty good against most decks...but man is it powerful.
Watching the pro tour...it seems like this deck would be very soft to Eldrazi. Chalice for 1 turn 1, beefy blockers turn 2 onwards, and lots of Eldrazi scions seems like a recipe for beating what goblins is trying to do.
So this was also the story at the regional i went to. I personally tasted how bad this matchup was. Not fun. Chalice on 1 is a scary thing in modern
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Legacy:B The Gate // B Pox Modern:RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox EDH:RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal Tiny Leaders:BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
You are right they are not a natural fit at first sight. Fury wants red and Kuldotha wants colorless artifacts; however, they are both great at putting bodies on the field - fast. That's where they come together and because of that I seem to have a consistent close at least during my limited play testing. As for the color issues I attempted to solve that by replacing Springleaf Drum with Simian Spirit Guide in the MB. Originally, I had it the other way around. And, I wont lie, I have not cast Furry when I had it in hand because I was always able to empty my hand for the close. It will require more testing that's for sure, but I think Furry's pay off is worth the look into before I alter the Kaldotha MB heavily i.e. Artarka's Command and required mana.
For the second battle phase I have Surgewhacker, Bushwhacker, and Signal Pest all providing a pump thought the duration of the turn not current battle phase. So, I see a second attack very rewarding if it can be pulled off. But, as I said I was unable to play it when I did have it and it is combo-jank; meaning, I can always draw a lot of none desired cards than a more typical build. But, it has worked so far. If I get a chance to play this Sunday I'll report the results.
@SphinxP:
Yes. Last report I had a horrible experience using the preferred mana set up, 14 Mountains + 4 SSG or 15 Mountains + 3 SSG. For many a game I drew one mana...one. And, I shuffled the deck many times. Did I win off one mana? Some, but it took a lot of skill. If I simply just had the second mana it would have been GG most of the time. I guess it was just bad luck. So, I have upped the mana count based off that experience. Truth be told you are correct I could get away with 16 or less with SSG included. However, this deck is still in its infancy for me to make those calls right now. I just need time on the table with it.
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Turns out I didn't win the lottery and it didn't get posted
I'll post it for you guys in case you are curious. I called it "Goblin Deck Wins"
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
3 Foundry Street Denizen
3 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Vexing Devil
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
3 Eidolon of the Great Revel
1 Mogg War Marshal
1 Simian Spirit Guide
Instants & Sorceries (15)
4 Goblin Grenade
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Searing Blaze
1 Mutagenic Growth
4 Atarka's Command
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Arid Mesa
2 Stomping Ground
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Mountain
4 Destructive Revelry
2 Smash to Smithereens
3 Deflecting Palm
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
3 Pyrite Spellbomb
I beat a Rally the Ancestors Deck (handily), I got pretty lucky to get a 2-1 victory against Affinity, won 2-0 against a r/w hatebears/kiki deck, 2-0 against a g/w beatdown deck that played scavenging ooze (scary), and won 2-1 in the final match against Jund. The deck was clicking and it was awesome! It felt so good to win those matches! I might be bothered to give a full report, but I'm a little busy the next few days.
If we assume that every 0 and 5+ land hand is a mulligan, and 90% of every 4 land hand is a mulligan, then the percentage likelihood of being forced to mulligan a hand due to mana at each amount is as follows:
15 Lands
17.08%
16 Lands16.70%
17 Lands16.77%
18 Lands17.28%
19 Lands17.95%
20 Lands19.06%
There's a pretty clear minimum at 16 to 17 lands, meaning that if you're purely looking to minimize the amount that you're forced to mulligan due to land count, you should be running between 16 and 17 lands. However, there's also the consideration of how many land drops you hit.
At 17 mana sources, you will average 2.55 lands by turn 3 on the play and 2.83 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 2.7 lands by turn 3.
At 18 mana sources, you will average 2.7 lands by turn 3 on the play and 3 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 2.85 lands by turn 3.
At 19 mana sources, you will average 2.85 lands by turn 3 on the play and 3.17 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 3.0 lands by turn 3.
At 20 mana sources, you will average 3.0 lands by turn 3 on the play and 3.33 lands by turn 3 on the draw, for an overall average of 3.17 lands by turn 3.
From this, you should be shooting for 19 mana sources to maximize the likelihood that you hit exactly three of your land drops in the first three turns, no more or no less.
Combining these two metrics, 17 to 19 sources seems like the happy medium of providing reasonable mulligan consistency along with reasonable third land drop consistency. Of course, Simian Spirit Guide throws a wrench in all the simple math. If we assume that T1 SSG is equivalent in value to hitting your third land drop (which may or may not be true depending on your list), then it's mostly a wash whether it's a land or a SSG in hand. However, SSG probably prevents you from keeping 1-land hands if it's your only mana source.
With 4 SSG/14 Land, 22% of your mana sources are SSG. With 26.8% of 18-source opening hands containing a single mana source, the SSG's will force you to mulligan an additional 5.42% of the time due to only having a SSG for mana.
With 3 SSG/15 land, the number is 4.06% additional likelihood to mulligan.
With 2 SSG/16 land, the number is 2.71% additional likelihood to mulligan.
With 1 SSG/17 land, the number is 1.36% additional likelihood to mulligan.
The pros of SSG are that they can power out more explosive early turn plays. Assuming that having a SSG to use for more early mana is equivalent to having your third land drop, the downside of running SSG is a 1.36% increased likelihood of having to mulligan a hand per SSG in your deck.
As a final note, cantrips throw this whole thing right out the window, because your deck effectively functions as a 56 card deck, and each cantrip is worth around 30% of a land. If you're running a build with Gitaxian Probe or Manamorphose, consider looking closely at the number of lands you run, since you can value each cantrip as roughly equivalent to one third of a land, because your deck is around one third lands.
TL:DR 16-17 lands give the most optimal mulligan keep rate, 19 lands gives the highest likelihood of hitting your 3rd land drop exactly, SSG makes you mulligan 1.36% more frequently per SSG in your deck, and cantrips are worth a third of a land, since they will draw you a land around that much of the time.
Wow, we have another math aficionado in our midst. Great run down the land, SSG, and cantraps; however, it is still unclear to me since I'm not as mathematically inclined as you are good sir. I don't know if I speak for everyone but is there a way to better present your data so it is easier for us to apply it to our various builds?
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Can you just post some quick comments regarding your sideboarding? I can use any insight you can offer before saturday. How did the white splash work?
Thanks man
Congratz! I like the goblin/burn hybrid!
Modern: RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox
EDH: RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal
Tiny Leaders: BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
Projects:
Gisa and Geralf Extreme-Tribal EDH
Esper Eldrazi Processor Control
Brewing with Kuldotha Forgemaster
Primer: "The Gate" - Mono Black in Modern
Modern Prison Pox - building a better plague
Modern:
B 8Rack
RX Goblins
BG Elves (Attempting)
UBW Mill
G Stompy
UB Tezzerator
Legacy:
W Stax
That's an interesting semi-surge list. Also, there's a Burn deck sporting 4(!) Zurgo Bellstrikers that 5-0ed that day. Crazy.
Currently:
4x Foundry Street Denizen
4x Goblin Bushwhacker
4x Goblin Guide
4x Legion Loyalist
4x Mogg Fanatic
4x Burning-Tree Emissary
2x Reckless Bushwhacker
4x Simian Spirit Guide
Spells (15):
1x Devastating Summons
4x Goblin Grenade
4x Lightning Bolt
2x Atarka's Command
4x Manamorphose
1x Arid Mesa
4x Bloodstained Mire
4x Wooded Foothills
4x Mountain
1x Stomping Ground
1x Sacred Foundry
3x Burrenton Forge-Tender
2x Forked Bolt
2x Grafdigger's Cage
2x Shattering Spree
1x Deflecting Palm
1x Rest in Peace
1x Stony Silence
3x Blood Moon
With this setup, I feel the following about my matchups overall:
Tier 1
Affinity (favored)
Burn (50-50)
Tron (favored)
Eldrazi (favored)
Jund (50-50)
Infect (favored)
Merfolk (favored)
Tier 2:
Abzan Company (bad?)
Scapeshift (probably favored)
Grishoalbrand (favored)
Naya Company (bad?)
Jeskai Control (50-50)
Living End (50-50)
Abzan (favored)
Gruul Zoo (50-50)
Bogles (Bad)
Kiki Chord (not sure)
Ad Nauseum (favored)
Death and Taxes (favored)
Elves (50-50, possibly favored)
Tier 3:
Storm (favored)
Grixis control (even-favored)
Hatebears (not sure)
UW control (favored)
Grixis Delver (favored)
BW tokens (favored)
Jeskai Kiki (not sure)
UR Delver (favored)
Temur Delver (Favored)
Titan Shift (unsure)
I am having a hard time trying to figure out what I care about most in my matchups. I have been using this as a guide to the meta for the SCG Regionals.
I am not sure I am prepared enough for these matchups with my current configuration. I cannot have a plan for every single deck I might see, but I may need help with these:
Boggles
Scapeshift
Living End (since I am not running Mogg War Marshals)
Abzan Company
And I might need a better hedge against burn.
A lot of these 50-50 matchups are probably decided by the coin flip sadly.
Grafdigger's cage - with the increase in popularity of Chord/Company decks I think this is a necessary inclusion. Also hits Grisel decks.
Any insight is much much appreciated.
Also - how many uses can you think of for Burrenton Forge Tender? Deflecting Palm?
Modern: RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox
EDH: RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal
Tiny Leaders: BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
Projects:
Gisa and Geralf Extreme-Tribal EDH
Esper Eldrazi Processor Control
Brewing with Kuldotha Forgemaster
Primer: "The Gate" - Mono Black in Modern
Modern Prison Pox - building a better plague
LOL - oops. I wish.
Any feedback you can offer?
Modern: RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox
EDH: RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal
Tiny Leaders: BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
Projects:
Gisa and Geralf Extreme-Tribal EDH
Esper Eldrazi Processor Control
Brewing with Kuldotha Forgemaster
Primer: "The Gate" - Mono Black in Modern
Modern Prison Pox - building a better plague
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Battlefield Forge
3 Mountain
1 Windswept Heath
2 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Goblin Guide
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Legion Loyalist
2 Foundry Street Denizen
2 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
4 Chancellor of the Forge
4 Memnite
2 Goblin Piledriver
2 Reckless Bushwhacker
4 Mutagenic Growth
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Fury of the Horde
4 Goblin Grenade
1 Mogg Fanatic
1 Forked Bolt
2 Skullcrack
3 Wear / Tear
2 Tormod's Crypt
3 Path to Exile
3 Boros Charm
In match 1: I faced WB Eldrazi. Went 2-0 against him.
Game 1: All he played was lands. Killed him on turn 3 game (Fury of the Horde after a sacing 3 lands to Devastating Summons + Reckless Bushwhacker).
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth.
Game 2: I mulligan to 6. See Mountain on top - scry it to bottom as I have 3 lands in hand. He casts duress against me turn 1 (Im not sure why he has duress in a deck against goblins. Seems bad.) I'm holding 2 Goblin Guides and a FSD. That was about all he did. I drew Kytheon my next turn; goblin grenade the turn after that, and he was dead on turn 4.
In match 2: I faced WB Eldrazi again! Went 2-0 against him as well.
Game 1: Was much like game 1 against the deck above. Except I think it was a turn 4 kill.
Sided in: 1X Boros Charm. 1X Path to Exile. Sided out: 1X Fury of the Horde. 1X Mutagenic Growth.
Game 2: This one was a lot more tricky and it was bad playing on his part that won it for me.
His turn 1: He thoughtsiezes me. Sees Sacred Foundry X3. Mutagenic Growth. Foundry Street. Reckless Bushwhacker. Goblin Guide. He takes Goblin Guide.
My Turn 1: I draw Boros Charm. Play Foundry Street and pass the turn.
His turn 2: Plays a land and passes.
My Turn 2: I draw Fury of the Horde. I could Mutagenic on FSD and cast Reckless and swing for 12 with Fury. But I don't want to risk his having removal for FSD. So i attack for 1 and pass.
His turn 3: He plays Blight Herder (i have nothing in exile.)
My Turn 3: I cast Goblin Bushwhacker unkicked. Then cast Reckless Bushwhacker. Swing with all 3. He blocks my 4/1 Foundry with Blight Herder. I Mutagenic Foundry killing them both. He takes 4 and is down to 13.
His turn 4: He plays Ruin Processor. (again, i have nothing in exile.)
My turn 4: I draw and play Kytheon. I have Goblin Bushwhacker and Reckless Bushwhacker in play. But i pass the turn rather than attack.
His turn 5: He plays a land. Thinks for a while and then passes the turn.
My turn 5: I draw Simian Spirit Guide. I attack with all 3 of my creatures. He blocks Kytheon with Processor. I make Kytheon indestructible. He takes 3 from the bushwhackers. Kytheon flips. I make Reckless indestructible.
His turn 6: He plays Ulamog the Ceaseless Hunger. He exiles my flipped Kytheon & Goblin Bushwhacker (instead of Reckless which is mistake #1.) Then he passes the turn to me.
My turn 6: I draw Goblin Bushwhacker. I play Simian Spirit Guide and pass the turn.
His Turn 7: On his turn he attacks with both of his creatures (mistake #2, since he didn't do anything else and left the field open.). I block Ulamog with SSG so that i don't die.
My Turn 7: I draw Chancellor of the Forge. Kick Goblin Bushwhacker. Swing for 5. He doesn't respond which shows me he has no answer. So I pitch Boros Charm and Chancellor to Fury and swing for another 5. Game over.
Match 3: Beat Ad Nauseum 2-1.
Game 1: Steamrolled him on turn 3. Had 2 goblin guides, 3 memnites and a kicked bushwhacker coming his way.
Sided in: 2X Wear / Tear, 2X Skullcrack.
Game 2: He managed to drag out long enough with Pherexian Unlife and Angel's Grace to combo off.
Game 3: Was intense. On turn 3 - I attack with all my guys; it's more than enough to do lethal. He casts Angel's Grace and has Leyline of Sanctity in play. I have Skullcrack, Lightning Bolt, and Wear / Tear in my hand. I realize at that point that Skullcrack is bad in this matchup. It cannot stop angel's grace or Unlife (neither prevent damage). If my opponent happens to be playing Darkness - it can stop that, but not all Nauseum players play darkness. But i devise a plan. I Tear his Leyline of Sanctity on my turn with 1 mana untapped. He attempts to play Pherexian Unlife on his turn. I lightning bolt him; he concedes. GG.
Note: I quit playing Mono-Red and went back to Boros. I've been having way more success with it, which prompted me to enter the 8 man!
Note 2: I constantly think Fury of the Horde isn't good enough since it's a dead card about 50% of the time. But when analyzing results. It is responsible for a lot of kills. And a lot of them come out of nowhere on an unsuspecting opponent.
Note 3: This is my 6th 8 man I've taken goblins to. Since it's single elimination now - some of those are 0 and exits, some 1-1's. 2 where i went 2-1. But this is my first 3-0.
Note 4: I think I'm about ready to take this thing to a daily. Hopefully draw into matches vs. Eldrazi, Tron & Ad Nauseum. Hopefully avoid any kind of Izzet control or lifegain decks.
Note 5: I cheated a bit on the lands, but that's because I am running 8 2 drops instead of 10. It was never really a factor in any game.
Modern:
B 8Rack
RX Goblins
BG Elves (Attempting)
UBW Mill
G Stompy
UB Tezzerator
Legacy:
W Stax
---------
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Goblin Guide
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
4 Legion Loyalist
3 Reckless Bushwhacker
Spells
-------
4 Manamorphose
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Atarka's Command
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Devastating Summons
-------
2 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
4 Copperline Gorge
2 Stomping Ground
4 Mountain
---------
2 Destructive Revelry
2 Dismember
2 Smash to Smithereens
2 Blood Moon
2 Choke
2 Stone Rain
2 Dragon's Claw
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
There's definitely potential here, but there is much room for improvement. I finished 3-3, which was better than I expected. I beat GR Tron, Infect, and UB Mill (deck was sweet), and lost to Jeskai Control, Mono B Eldrazi, and Zoo due to a few mistakes. Aside from my hastily put together sideboard, I did want to share a few things.
Mana availability - Perhaps from a design flaw, but I always wanted more mana. While access to SSG can grant explosive starts, sometimes the apes just left me hanging. There were a few games where I was stuck on one mana (missing land drops on turns 2-6 against Tron) and access to another land would have secured me a win. Mana screw happens, but I can definitely build this deck better. My next goldfish test will be to remove SSG entirely and move toward 19-20 lands total.
Devastating Summons - This is a great finisher, giving two triggers to FSD (even with saccing zero lands) and triggering Prowess on MSS. Three land seems to be the sweet spot for this card, allowing you to follow up with either Bushwhacker. However having multiples in hand is not the greatest, so if I choose to continue with Summons I may only run a singleton copy. Feels good man.
BTE and Git Probe - The green mana from BTE was wasted a total of 3 times across the 6 rounds (16 games total). In my opinion this isn't too terrible, but that is still mana left unspent that could be turned into potential damage. Gitaxian Probe wiffed. A lot. While getting information and drawing a card for 2 life is great, I think there are better options out there for this slot. I plan on testing a combination of Probes and Mutagenic Growths to get a feel for where I want to be. Fortunately Manamorphose has been great in testing and in real games.
Reckless Bushwhacker - When its good, its REALLY good. When it sits in your hand with nothing to cast beforehand, its extremely lackluster. I'm sure there were some incorrect plays I did last night when attempting to set up Reckless, but I can say that unless you're running a ton of ways to trigger surge I believe the correct number to run is 3. I consider Reckless, like Devastating Summons, a finisher or a way to get in that last damage to secure a win the next turn. With that being said, I did not find multiple Reckless helpful.
I also plan on toying around with Matter Reshaper and some lords, thinking Rakdos colors.
So this was also the story at the regional i went to. I personally tasted how bad this matchup was. Not fun. Chalice on 1 is a scary thing in modern
Modern: RGB Dredge // RBG Goblins // B The Gate // UBR Tezz AoB Control // RBG Prison Pox
EDH: RBU Thraximundar // R Norin the Wary // RWB Kaalia of the Vast // BUR Grixis Combos // BU Gisa and Geralf Tribal
Tiny Leaders: BUW Sydri, Galvanic Genius // R Feldon of the Third Path
Projects:
Gisa and Geralf Extreme-Tribal EDH
Esper Eldrazi Processor Control
Brewing with Kuldotha Forgemaster
Primer: "The Gate" - Mono Black in Modern
Modern Prison Pox - building a better plague