The MTGS Modern Forums is a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Established" subforum reflects the competitive decks of the metagame that are not quite Tier 1 (commonly referred to as Tiers 1.5/2). The subforum is updated every ban quarter.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Proven" were decided upon by staff and everyday forum users in August and September of 2013. It has also received small updates since then. Data collected for this quarter's update is presented in the MTGS Modern Metagame Analysis: 7/2014 - 9/2014 Google Doc. This sheet compiles all Modern event data for your convenience, and gives an accurate depiction of both the online and paper metagames. Many of the criteria for Established are dynamic (based on averages/standard deviations for the population), so the exact cutoffs are always changing to reflect the current metagame. The formulas, however, remain the same. Criteria for the 9/22/2014 update are given below:
Established - 9/22/2014 Tournament Decks with Results
Established decks are updated every ban cycle. An Established thread must have a primer updated since the last ban cycle. A deck is considered "Established" if it fulfills ONE or more of the following criteria:
Has finished 4-0/3-1 at 10+ dailies in the past 3 months
(i.e. above average finish count for decks that are not 1+ standard deviations over the pooled average - the "adjusted pool" prevalence)
Has 1+ finish at a Grand Prix/Pro Tour Top 8/16 in the last 6 months
Has 13+ Day 2 metagame apperances at all major paper events in the last 6 months
Has 8+ T8 showings in large paper events with 40+ players in the past 6 months
(i.e. has prevalence greater than one standard deviation over average day 2 prevalence at GPs)
Makes up 3.25%+ of the Paper Top 8 metagame for events, held in the last 6 months/since the most recent significant ban update, with 40+ players
(i.e. above average finish count for decks that are not 1+ standard deviations over the pooled average - the "adjusted pool" prevalence)
In addition, MTGS uses a "Second Chance Policy" to keep some decks in Established even if they did not make the cut for a ban cycle. This reflects the changing nature of the metagame and how quickly decks might rise and fall in the format. These decks are allowed to stay in Established for one more cycle before being moved.
Second Chance Policy: A deck must fail to meet Established criteria in 2 consecutive ban quarter to be moved to Creation.
Under these criteria, here are the decks that go into the Established subforum for the 9/22/2014 update. Again, data is taken from the spreadsheet here. Decks are also accompanied by the criteria that they fulfill on the list, just for the sake of transparency. For example, UR Delver fulfills three criteria, so it gets a (1,3,4) next to it. Summoning Trap only fulfills one, so it receives a (1). Any deck with a (S) is on the Second Chance Policy and is in danger of demotion at the end of this quarter.
ESTABLISHED DECKS: 9/22/2014
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
If anyone has any questions, comments, or suggestions, feel free to post in the Modern metagame discussion thread, or to message me or one of the other moderators.
UW Control (1) (Spreadsheet made a rounding error here, so although it says this doesn't meet Established criteria, it actually does for MTGO with 17 dailies)
Owing to the relative scarcity of large paper Modern tournaments in the past 6 months, and to the smaller size of those tournaments, the 4th criteria has been changed to reflect events with 50+ players. It had previously been 100+. This will likely revert to 100+ once PTQ season starts.
Ban announcement around the corner, probably on January 27th. A bunch of decks will move around then and get promoted and demoted from Proven, Established, and Creation. We will try and make sure that those moves are clear so people can find their threads.
Update again! More moves and more reorganization coming! This is basically the final stage, so input is critical to making sure that the process reflects the desires of the community and advances the mission of our site. Check out the Official Reorganization Thread for details on the upcoming changes to Proven and Established!
Update: Owing to the relative scarcity of large paper Modern tournaments in the past 6 months, and to the smaller size of those tournaments, the 4th criteria has been changed to reflect events with 50+ players. It had previously been 100+. This will likely revert to 100+ once PTQ season starts.
Ban announcement around the corner, probably on January 27th. A bunch of decks will move around then and get promoted and demoted from Proven, Established, and Creation. We will try and make sure that those moves are clear so people can find their threads.
Establishedsection updated! Lots of new faces around as our format continues to show just how diverse it is. Give a warm welcome to all the threads and be sure to check out their discussions.
Blue Moon and UW Control (thread pending) moved to Established
The following decks were moved to Deck Creation. Decks are given along with the number of dailies they had in parentheses: Boros (4), Mill (6), Restore Balance (4), Ninja Bear (6), Zur (1), and DredgeVine (10).
The biggest change since our last update was an adjustment to the number of dailies it takes for a deck to be considered "Established". Previously, that cutoff had been 6+ finishes at 4-0/3-1. But to make it more accurate, we are increasing that to 12+. Mathematically, this is can be thought of as "above average finishes relative to the adjusted metagame pool, where the adjusted pool is the total metagame minusthose decks with prevalence greater than 2 standard deviations over the average." That is also to say, 12+ is above average for all decks if you remove the mega decks of the format (Twin, Affinity, Melira Pod, etc.). This lets us strike a balance between giving some room for brewers to advance (8Rack, Assault Loam, Blue Moon, and Nykthos Green are all in Established), and keeping it so all decks in Established are really tier 2 in a more objective sense.
New B&R announcement just got posted, so it's time for our quarterly update of the forums. I will be finalizing all the deck placements and then moving threads accordingly. Stay tuned for more details!
For Established, there is one big change to the way we put decks here. Previously, a deck could be demoted out of Established every "quarter", as long as it missed the criteria for that period. Now, we are letting decks stay in Established for 1 extra "quarter", even if they don't otherwise meet the criteria. So a deck like Dredgevine might have bad performances in one period but roar back in the next. Given the dynamic nature of the modern metagame, this best captures the format and keeps our classification system accurate.
UW Tron, Gruul Zoo, and Deadguy Ale promoted from Creation!
Second Chance Policy instituted; decks need to miss the Established cut for two consecutive ban quarters to be moved down to Creation.
8Rack, Nykthos Green, Griselbrand, Cruel Control, Assault Loam, and UW Midrange on Second Chance Policy.
Some of the criteria might look a little different from last time around. Notably, it now takes 17+ dailies instead of 12+ dailies to be Established. This is because the cutoff is based on averages and standard deviations, which are necessarily dynamic depending on the prevalence of decks in the format. "Above average" performance on MTGO, adjusting to remove the mega decks with a ton of play, used to be 12+ dailies. Now it is 17+. It may change again the next time around, but the formula to get that number will always be the same.
The other big chance is the institution of the Second Chance Policy for Established. Under this rule, a deck needs to miss the Estabished criteria in two consecutive updates to be moved to Creation. This respects the past performance of decks relative to the dynamic Modern format. A deck might barely miss the Established cutoff by a few dailies, even though it was solidly Established last time. That doesn't necessarily mean the deck is bad or shouldn't be Established, especially given the limitations of our sample. So we will leave it here for another few months just to present it as a viable option, with the understanding that it needs to show some results or face demotion.
This update reflects the metagame as of 9/22/2014, the end date of the most recent ban cycle/quarter for the format. Updated criteria for Established can be found in the OP. As of this posting, all Established changes have been made. Remember that you can see our full dataset in the link in my signature: MTGS Modern Metagame - MTGO and Paper Events (7/14/2014 - 9/22/2014).
NOTABLE CHANGES
Bogles, Merfolk, and Storm moved down from Proven
8Rack and Griselbrand stay in Established
Nykthos Green, Cruel Control, Assault Loam, and UW Midrange moved to Deck Creation
UWR Delver, UB Tezzeret, and Summoning Trap (!) promoted to Established!
The MTGS Modern Forums is a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Established" subforum reflects the competitive decks of the metagame that are not quite Tier 1 (commonly referred to as Tiers 1.5/2). The subforum is updated every ban quarter.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Proven" were decided upon by staff and everyday forum users in August and September of 2013. It has also received small updates since then. Data collected for this quarter's update is presented in the MTGS Modern Metagame Analysis: 7/2014 - 9/2014 Google Doc. This sheet compiles all Modern event data for your convenience, and gives an accurate depiction of both the online and paper metagames. Many of the criteria for Established are dynamic (based on averages/standard deviations for the population), so the exact cutoffs are always changing to reflect the current metagame. The formulas, however, remain the same. Criteria for the 9/22/2014 update are given below:
Established - 9/22/2014
Tournament Decks with Results
Established decks are updated every ban cycle. An Established thread must have a primer updated since the last ban cycle. A deck is considered "Established" if it fulfills ONE or more of the following criteria:
- Has finished 4-0/3-1 at 10+ dailies in the past 3 months
(i.e. above average finish count for decks that are not 1+ standard deviations over the pooled average - the "adjusted pool" prevalence)
- Has 1+ finish at a Grand Prix/Pro Tour Top 8/16 in the last 6 months
- Has 13+ Day 2 metagame apperances at all major paper events in the last 6 months
- Has 8+ T8 showings in large paper events with 40+ players in the past 6 months
(i.e. has prevalence greater than one standard deviation over average day 2 prevalence at GPs)
- Makes up 3.25%+ of the Paper Top 8 metagame for events, held in the last 6 months/since the most recent significant ban update, with 40+ players
(i.e. above average finish count for decks that are not 1+ standard deviations over the pooled average - the "adjusted pool" prevalence)
In addition, MTGS uses a "Second Chance Policy" to keep some decks in Established even if they did not make the cut for a ban cycle. This reflects the changing nature of the metagame and how quickly decks might rise and fall in the format. These decks are allowed to stay in Established for one more cycle before being moved.- Second Chance Policy: A deck must fail to meet Established criteria in 2 consecutive ban quarter to be moved to Creation.
Under these criteria, here are the decks that go into the Established subforum for the 9/22/2014 update. Again, data is taken from the spreadsheet here. Decks are also accompanied by the criteria that they fulfill on the list, just for the sake of transparency. For example, UR Delver fulfills three criteria, so it gets a (1,3,4) next to it. Summoning Trap only fulfills one, so it receives a (1). Any deck with a (S) is on the Second Chance Policy and is in danger of demotion at the end of this quarter.ESTABLISHED DECKS: 9/22/2014
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
- Bogles (1,2,3,4)
- Storm (1,3,4)
- Merfolk (1,2,3,4)
- UR Delver (1,3,4)
- UWR Midrange (1,2,3,4)
- Living End (1,2,3,4)
- Kiki Pod (1,2,3,4)
- GW Death and Taxes (1,4)
- Naya Zoo (1,3,4)
- Faeries (1,2,4)
- Mono U Tron (1,4)
- Ad Nauseam (1,2,3,4)
- Infect (1,2,3,4)
- Domain Zoo (2,3,4)
- Amulet of Vigor (1)
- UW Tron (1,4)
- Blue Moon (1,2,4)
- Gruul Zoo (1,4)
- RUG (1,4)
- BW Tokens (4)
- Deadguy Ale (1)
- Soul Sisters (1)
- UWR Twin (2,3)
- Junk (2,4)
- GW Hatebears (4)
- UW Control (4)
- 8Rack (1)
- Griselbrand (4)
- UB Tezzeret (2)
- UWR Delver (2,4)
- Summoning Trap Valakut (1)
- 4C Gifts (S)
If anyone has any questions, comments, or suggestions, feel free to post in the Modern metagame discussion thread, or to message me or one of the other moderators.~Updated 9/24/2014~
ESTABLISHED DECKS: 9/22/2014
Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
- Bogles (1,2,3,4)
- Storm (1,3,4)
- Merfolk (1,2,3,4)
- UR Delver (1,3,4)
- UWR Midrange (1,2,3,4)
- Living End (1,2,3,4)
- Kiki Pod (1,2,3,4)
- GW Death and Taxes (1,4)
- Naya Zoo (1,3,4)
- Faeries (1,2,4)
- Mono U Tron (1,4)
- Ad Nauseam (1,2,3,4)
- Infect (1,2,3,4)
- Domain Zoo (2,3,4)
- Amulet of Vigor (1)
- UW Tron (1,4)
- Blue Moon (1,2,4)
- Gruul Zoo (1,4)
- RUG (1,4)
- BW Tokens (4)
- Deadguy Ale (1)
- Soul Sisters (1)
- UWR Twin (2,3)
- Junk (2,4)
- GW Hatebears (4)
- UW Control (4)
- 8Rack (1)
- Griselbrand (4)
- UB Tezzeret (2)
- UWR Delver (2,4)
- Summoning Trap Valakut (1)
- 4C Gifts (S)
ESTABLISHED DECKS: 7/14/2014Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
- Burn (1,3,4)
- UR Delver (1,4)
- UWR Midrange (1,3,4)
- Living End (1,2,3,4)
- UWR Kiki Control (1,2,4) (No designated thread yet - 7/18/2014)
- Junk Pod (1,2,4) (No designated thread yet - 7/18/2014)
- GW Death and Taxes (1,4)
- Naya Zoo (1,3,4)
- Faeries (1,2,4)
- Mono U Tron (1)
- Ad Nauseam (1,2,4)
- Infect (1)
- Domain Zoo (1,2,3,4)
- Amulet of Vigor (1)
- UW Tron (1)
- Blue Moon (2,4)
- Gruul Zoo (3)
- RUG (1,4)
- BW Tokens (1)
- Deadguy Ale (1)
- Soul Sisters (1)
- 4C Gifts (1)
- UWR Twin (2)
- Junk (4)
- GW Hatebears (4)
- UW Control (1) (Spreadsheet made a rounding error here, so although it says this doesn't meet Established criteria, it actually does for MTGO with 17 dailies)
- 8Rack (5)
- Nykthos Green (5)
- Griselbrand (5)
- Cruel Control (5)
- Assault Loam (5)
- UW Midrange (5)
ESTABLISHED DECKS: 4/28/2014Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
- Mono U Tron (1)
- Soul Sisters (1,4)
- GW Hatebears (1,4)
- Gruul Zoo (1,3)
- RUG Delver (1,4)
- Junk (4)
- 4C Gifts (1)
- Infect (1)
- Faeries (1,2)
- Cruel Control (1)
- BW Tokens (1)
- UW Midrange (1)
- Ad Nauseam (1,2)
- Griselbrand (4)
- Domain Zoo (1,2,4)
- Naya Zoo (1,4)
- Amulet of Vigor (1)
- Assault Loam (1)
- 8Rack (1)
- Death and Taxes (1)
- Nykthos Green (1)
- RG Tron (1,3,4)
- Burn (1,3)
- Delver (1,4)
- BGx Rock (1,2,4)
- Living End (1,2,3,4)
- Blue Moon (1,2,4)
- UW Control (1)
ESTABLISHED DECKS: 2/1/2014Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
- Storm (1)
- Bogles (1,3)
- Mono U Tron (1)
- Soul Sisters (1,4)
- GW Hatebears (1,2,3,4)
- Gruul Zoo (1,2)
- RUG Delver (1,2)
- Junk (1,2,3,4)
- 4C Gifts (1)
- Infect (1,2)
- Faeries (1)
- Cruel Control (1)
- Restore Balance (1)
- BW Tokens (1)
- UW Midrange (1)
- Ad Nauseam (1)
- Griselbrand (1,2)
- Domain Zoo (1)
- Naya Zoo (3,4)
- Dredgevine (1)
- Amulet of Vigor (1)
- Boros (1)
- Zur (1)
- Dega (BWR) Midrange (1)
- Assault Loam (1)
- Ninja Bear (1)
- 8Rack (1)
- Death and Taxes (1)
- Nykthos Green (1)
ESTABLISHED DECKS: 9/16/2013Criteria fulfillment provided in parentheses
Owing to the relative scarcity of large paper Modern tournaments in the past 6 months, and to the smaller size of those tournaments, the 4th criteria has been changed to reflect events with 50+ players. It had previously been 100+. This will likely revert to 100+ once PTQ season starts.
Ban announcement around the corner, probably on January 27th. A bunch of decks will move around then and get promoted and demoted from Proven, Established, and Creation. We will try and make sure that those moves are clear so people can find their threads.
Let me know if you have any questions!
Ban announcement around the corner, probably on January 27th. A bunch of decks will move around then and get promoted and demoted from Proven, Established, and Creation. We will try and make sure that those moves are clear so people can find their threads.
Let me know if you have any questions!
Establishedsection updated! Lots of new faces around as our format continues to show just how diverse it is. Give a warm welcome to all the threads and be sure to check out their discussions.
NOTABLE CHANGES
The biggest change since our last update was an adjustment to the number of dailies it takes for a deck to be considered "Established". Previously, that cutoff had been 6+ finishes at 4-0/3-1. But to make it more accurate, we are increasing that to 12+. Mathematically, this is can be thought of as "above average finishes relative to the adjusted metagame pool, where the adjusted pool is the total metagame minusthose decks with prevalence greater than 2 standard deviations over the average." That is also to say, 12+ is above average for all decks if you remove the mega decks of the format (Twin, Affinity, Melira Pod, etc.). This lets us strike a balance between giving some room for brewers to advance (8Rack, Assault Loam, Blue Moon, and Nykthos Green are all in Established), and keeping it so all decks in Established are really tier 2 in a more objective sense.
New B&R announcement just got posted, so it's time for our quarterly update of the forums. I will be finalizing all the deck placements and then moving threads accordingly. Stay tuned for more details!
For Established, there is one big change to the way we put decks here. Previously, a deck could be demoted out of Established every "quarter", as long as it missed the criteria for that period. Now, we are letting decks stay in Established for 1 extra "quarter", even if they don't otherwise meet the criteria. So a deck like Dredgevine might have bad performances in one period but roar back in the next. Given the dynamic nature of the modern metagame, this best captures the format and keeps our classification system accurate.
NOTABLE CHANGES
- UW Tron, Gruul Zoo, and Deadguy Ale promoted from Creation!
- Second Chance Policy instituted; decks need to miss the Established cut for two consecutive ban quarters to be moved down to Creation.
- 8Rack, Nykthos Green, Griselbrand, Cruel Control, Assault Loam, and UW Midrange on Second Chance Policy.
Some of the criteria might look a little different from last time around. Notably, it now takes 17+ dailies instead of 12+ dailies to be Established. This is because the cutoff is based on averages and standard deviations, which are necessarily dynamic depending on the prevalence of decks in the format. "Above average" performance on MTGO, adjusting to remove the mega decks with a ton of play, used to be 12+ dailies. Now it is 17+. It may change again the next time around, but the formula to get that number will always be the same.The other big chance is the institution of the Second Chance Policy for Established. Under this rule, a deck needs to miss the Estabished criteria in two consecutive updates to be moved to Creation. This respects the past performance of decks relative to the dynamic Modern format. A deck might barely miss the Established cutoff by a few dailies, even though it was solidly Established last time. That doesn't necessarily mean the deck is bad or shouldn't be Established, especially given the limitations of our sample. So we will leave it here for another few months just to present it as a viable option, with the understanding that it needs to show some results or face demotion.
This update reflects the metagame as of 9/22/2014, the end date of the most recent ban cycle/quarter for the format. Updated criteria for Established can be found in the OP. As of this posting, all Established changes have been made. Remember that you can see our full dataset in the link in my signature: MTGS Modern Metagame - MTGO and Paper Events (7/14/2014 - 9/22/2014).
NOTABLE CHANGES
- Bogles, Merfolk, and Storm moved down from Proven
- 8Rack and Griselbrand stay in Established
- Nykthos Green, Cruel Control, Assault Loam, and UW Midrange moved to Deck Creation
- UWR Delver, UB Tezzeret, and Summoning Trap (!) promoted to Established!
- 4C Gifts on Second Chance Policy
Let me know if anyone has questions!