That list is definitely worrisome. Just Smiters alone have been giving me enough trouble, nevermind Lieges too. But the deck was heavily a metagame call - I could see it being the kind of thing that maybe tapers off, especially if another unbanning or two is incoming, which I expect it is. (No more discussion on this specifically - keep it to the banlist thread).
I'm finishing up my test writeup from games 2/3 against Burn. I'll post it tomorrow, but here are some preview points. First, Nyx is a monster against Burn. That deck just can't deal with it. I question it's value against Junk, but it's definitely a killer against Burn. Second, between Nyx, more removal, and Syphon Life, the win rate improved to a strong 65%, 75% on the play and 55% on the draw. This bodes well for 8Rack's future in a metagame with lots of Burn, and Nyx is a big part of that.
Glad to see my crazy idea paid off.
Between their speed and us boarding in Needles, Blasts, and Blights (or whatever you use), I've been wondering if Nyxathid would work against Affinity after all. I have run into a situation or two against them where I've wanted it instead of Bridge.
Wrapped up the Burn game 2 tests today and am happy to say that things improved a lot once sideboarding started. Although game 1 remains a disaster, the games 2/3 results are quite encouraging, which suggests that 8Rack is a lot more viable than people might have initially assumed in the Burn matchup. You can check out the Burn and 8Rack lists that we used for the tests in the link above, so let's get right into the test report.
SIDEBOARDING STRATEGY
Because game 1 was so ugly, it was pretty easy to identify cards that sucked and replace them with cards that didn't. Bridge and Rat were obvious cuts; I know some people might be tempted to run 1-2 Bridges in this matchup, but it's just really terrible against Burn. For every time it works in a game and stops attacks on turn 3, there are 3-4 games where it doesn't do anything when you play it. When we add to that the fact that Burn is definitely bringing in artifact/enchantment removal for this game, it's clear that Bridge is just not going to work. Rat also fails because it's way too slow; it's a Dakmor Bat without flying in most games.
So what comes in? Our sideboard tested out the Nyxathid tech alongside some removal and Syphon Life. Although these cards are definitely good in the Burn matchup, they also feel relevant in other aggressive matchups as well. Given that we were using 4 Leyline just for Burn, it seems way better to use 3-4 Nyx instead for that matchup; they are more proactive, way harder for Burn to deal with, and are more relevant in other matchups. We also put in a Darkblast as a nice bullet against Lavamancer and Guide and a Murderous Cut to handle Eidolon.
-4 Bridge
-2 Rat
-1 Crime
+3 Nyx
+2 Syphon
+1 Cut
+1 DB
Burn's sideboarding was even easier. We subbed out 2 Searing Blaze for 2 Revelry, keeping the 2 Blazes in to handle Nyx and Muta and then adding 2 Revelry to give Burn some outs against Racks and Afflictions. We then took out a Burst Lightning and a Shard Volley for a pair of Relics. We reasoned that the expected return on a Relic was greater than the expected return on those two spells. For one, Burst only deals 2 damage and most games were decided by 3+ life. So that wasn't even closing out the game in most cases, which made Relic a better option. Second, Relic handles both Raven and Syphon, the latter being a serious problem for Burn. Finally, a discarded Relic minimizes Wrench Mind's effect, often allowing the Burn player to keep another 3 damage spell instead. All of those reasons led us to bring in the Relics.
-2 Blaze
-1 Burst
-1 Shard
+2 Revelry
+2 Relic
GAMES 2/3 SUMMARY
Nyxathid was a MONSTER in these games. The 65% win rate in games 2/3 was a huge improvement over the dismal game 1 win rate, and Nyx was responsible for a big chunk of those wins. Without Bridge and Rat clogging up 8Rack's hands, the deck's average draws were much better and able to keep pace with Burn's speed. Indeed, as the summary stats will show, 8Rack was much faster in games 2/3 than in game 1, which was largely because Nyx hit so hard throughout our tests. Burn was still a potent opponent that pulled off a bunch of super speedy win and narrow comebacks (Lavamancer with Rack triggers on the stack is very depressing). Eidolon is also a really scary creature. But overall, Burn had a difficult time keeping up with 8Rack's threats. This meant that the inevitability factor of game 1 was no longer present in games 2/3 because 8Rack was putting on pressure earlier. Interestingly enough, however, the average win turn for 8Rack was actually slightly slower in games 2/3 than game 1. This was because Nyx would often prevent a Burn attack and/or force a block, which would prolong the game for about 1 more turn on average as Burn tried to stay in it. As a final note, this 65% overall win rate is a little misleading because, unlike in game 1, the play/draw win rate was pretty different. This would definitely impact 8Rack's performance in a 3 game match, and is something we would have to consider at larger events.
GAMES 2/3 SUMMARY STATS
I'll take a 65% win rate over a 35% win rate any day of the week, but we still need to dive into those numbers to draw out the details. The stats are much more interesting and revealing than the flat win rate alone suggests.
Overall win rate: 65% (26/40) Wins on the play: 75% (15/20) Wins on the draw: 55% (11/20) Mulligans: 5 total (4 to 6 cards, 1 to 5 cards, 1 of which was because of too many lands) Mulligan win rate: 80% (4/5)
Unlike in game 1, being on the play/draw mattered a lot in games 2/3. One reason for this is that Nyx is the sort of win condition that needs to land early to have a chance of closing games. If Nyx is a turn behind, that might be the only turn that Burn needs to win. Another reason for this is just sample size. 8Rack was losing so many games in game 1 that we might have needed more data to know if the play or the draw was better. The good news is that we are still slightly positive on the draw, and I think we could improve that even more with some different sideboard tweaks. As for mulligans, it didn't even matter in these games; the 8Rack sideboard cards were just too strong anyway.
Average 8Rack win turn: 7.5 (game 1 = 6.75) Average Burn win turn: 6 (game 1 = 7) Average 8Rack life total in wins: 7 (game 1 = 3) Average Burn life total in wins: 6 (game 1 = 12)
Those stats are interesting on their own but way more interesting in relation to the game 1 stats. In game 1, 8Rack needed to be slightly faster than Burn to win, which obviously wasn't going to happen. But in game 2, we see a very different dynamic. Burn now needs to be even faster than BOTH 8Rack in game 1 and Burn itself in game 1. But 8Rack is actually slightly slower than in game 1. How did that happen? Two reasons. The first is removal. Removal buys time for 8Rack to close out a game. With more removal, 8Rack gets an extra turn to do its magic and win. The second reason is Nyxathid, the monster itself. A turn 3 or turn 4 Nyx immediately stops all attackers for Burn. That's instantly another turn at our disposal, just by virtue of walling off a Guide and/or an Eidolon. Sure, if they have too many creatures they can just overrun you, but if they just have 1-2 dudes then that's not a profitable attack for Burn. The life totals also reflect this. 8Rack had almost twice as much life as in game 1 when it won, in large part because removal or Nyx bought us a turn. Meanwhile, Burn had HALF as much life on average when it won, which reflects that extra turn where Nyx swung or multiple Racks ticked. Either way, 8Rack was getting into a winning position faster than before, and Burn needed to win even faster to have a chance.
Now let's see why 8Rack was winning.
NYXATHID BEAST MODE: 11 Wins with 2+ Rack Burn: 5 Wins with Muta: 4 Wins with Rack/Lilly/Bridge lockdown: 3 Syphon Life: 3
Yeah, Nyxathid is a really scary card in this matchup. Burn just can't profitably interact with this card. It stonewalls attackers, it's a 2 turn clock in tandem with Racks, and it comes down early enough to make a difference. In theory, Burn has enough dudes to just run over a lone Nyxathid, but this isn't often how it works out. Between targeted discard and removal, an opponent is unlikely to have more than 2 creatures out by the time Nyx hits play. And given that Burn was winning games on about turn 6-7, you just aren't low enough on turn 3-4 for the Burn player to start hurling creatures into a Nyx. In fairness, some Nyx wins had support from other cards, particularly a singleton Rack. But those were also games where Nyx was doing way more legwork than the other cards that were helping it out. As for other win conditions, Rack burn remained strong even if it got upstaged by Nyx. Muta also remained a big performer, both on offense and as a blocker in stopping Eidolon swings. Lockdown mode was also decent in a pinch but, naturally, was still the weakest way to win. Syphon appears to have underperformed but it helped out in at least 3 of the other games and would have helped out more were it not for timely Relics. I'd still keep 1-2 in the board based on this, or 1 in the main and 1 in the board.
Losses to Eidolon: 7 Losses to Guide/MS Beatdown: 4 Losses to burn: 2 Losses to Lavamancer: 1 Losses to inevitability: 0
Alright, so Eidolon is still a big problem. At least 3 of these Eidolon games were really bad luck where I fired off a turn 1-2 TS/IoK and then the Burn player topdecked one on the next turn. Eidolon won basically the same number of games in games 2/3 as he did in game 1, which suggests that his power didn't diminish even with our sideboard cards. As a note, in case it was unclear, Darkblast was just as terrible against Eidolon as it sounds. It worked once...sort of. At least Cut put in good work against Eidolon. Apart from Eidolon, however, beatdown and burn were way less effective against Nyx, removal, and Syphon. The Eidolon wins in game 1 carried over to game 2 but these other win conditions definitely did not. It turns out that if you can roadblock Burn on turn 3-4 then it's very hard for them to close the game on turn 6-7. The dramatic drop in beatdown-based wins is a testament to Nyx and removal, both of which were great against little dudes.
GAMES 2/3 OVERALL IMPRESSIONS
1. Nyxathid > Burn
The Burn list we tested against is almost identical to the list piloted by Seth Manfield at Worlds, along with many other Burn lists in that field. That kind of Burn list is woefully unprepared for handling Nyxathid. Burn-based removal is just terrible at killing the creature because every spell cast from your hand increases Nyx's toughness by 1. So for Burn to kill Nyx with a single Bolt effect, they need to have 5+ cards in their hands. If they have 4 and cast Bolt at the 3/3 Nyx, it will survive as a 4/4 with 3 damage on it. This forces Burn to either expend lots of resources to kill Nyx or to just ignore it. Spending resources slows them down, takes cards out of their hand, and buys you at least 6 life. And ignoring Nyx tends to be fatal because this card hits HARD. If this guy proves strong in other matchups, I would strongly recommend going up to 4. To put it another way, in all the games I saw Nyx, I only lost 3 of them (4 if you count one where I never drew my third land until turn 6).
2. Rack/Nyx + Removal/TS/IoK = Wins
To win against Burn, you need two things. You need Rack/Nyx as a clock, and then you need removal, TS, and/or IoK to disrupt. If you have hands with disruption and removal, you aren't going to win. If you have hands with clocks but no targeted discard or removal, you aren't going to win either. This is because you need ways to handle Eidolon and because you can't take too much damage from Guides/MS before turn 3. Removal/TS/IoK will stop that, and then Rack/Nyx will close a game. It's tempting to keep other hand configurations against Burn because they seem good at first glance. For instance, keeping hands with lots of removal but no clocks is a bad idea; this puts us at the mercy of Burn inevitability. Also, keeping hands that don't have SELECTIVE discard is also risky. If you don't have removal or selective discard, that turn 2 Eidolon is going to be a huge problem. There are scenarios where Nyx can race an Eidolon, but those are uncommon.
3. Know when to attack, know when to defend
When you have Nyx and Muta in your arsenal, you need to know when to stay defensive and when to go offensive. This can be very tricky and often comes down to only a few points of life. It's less of an issue when Racks are involved because Racks have only one mode (burn opponent to death). Creatures are more complicated. By looking at an opponent's graveyard, you need to be able to guess what they are likely to draw. Generally speaking, you want to be aggressive with your attacks, especially if you have already killed some of the hasty creatures. They are much less common than burn spells, especially if you see some on the yard already. But when you have 2-3 life, these decisions really matter, and will be the difference between a win and a loss.
Overall, I think 8Rack has a lot of potential to win the supposedly unwinnable Burn matchup through smart sideboarding. 4 Nyxathid seems like a great call if we were already using 4 Leyline just for Burn, and unlike LoS, Nyx is a card that should have relevance elsewhere. This should help us shore up a terrible game 1 matchup with great win potential in games 2/3, which is exactly what we need to reliably pilot this deck to bigger finishes at bigger events.
Great testing ktken, nice to know that monster is useful. I remember discovering it when i first started putting the deck together, but thought it was too cute and never tried him out. What are your thoughts on a pair of [card]radiant fountain[card]? I realize with mutavault it could potentially cause mana problem, but with the playset of urborgs it may be ok, and gaining back a thoughtsieze or the better part of a bolt couldn't be a bad thing....
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Where is this notion that Burn was ever an unwinnable matchup coming from?? My God please look at some of my old daily replays as an example. Burn was rough in Game 1 when Bitterblossom was in fashion, but ever since Rat, I find the match quite easy. Leyline > Burn. Its worth mulling to. I also have burn decks and have played them plenty. The best way to learn how to beat something is to play it yourself and get beat. FYI this is why I have ALWAYS had 4x Leyline in my side. In almost all my sideboards in all decks actually.
Where is this notion that Burn was ever an unwinnable matchup coming from?? My God please look at some of my old daily replays as an example. Burn was rough in Game 1 when Bitterblossom was in fashion, but ever since Rat, I find the match quite easy. Leyline > Burn. Its worth mulling to. I also have burn decks and have played them plenty. The best way to learn how to beat something is to play it yourself and get beat.
Game 1 is basically unwinnable. Games 2/3 are certainly winnable, but I would argue that it's better to win them off Nyx than it is to win them off Leyline. That's especially true given the current configurations of Burn.
The easiest way to test this would just be to re-run the game 2/3 tests with Leyline instead of Nyx and see how that affects the matchup win rate. My guess without running those tests is that Nyx will give 8Rack at least a slightly better win rate than Leyline. It also is probably relevant in more matchups than Leyline is.
Game 1 is basically unwinnable. Games 2/3 are certainly winnable, but I would argue that it's better to win them off Nyx than it is to win them off Leyline. That's especially true given the current configurations of Burn.
The easiest way to test this would just be to re-run the game 2/3 tests with Leyline instead of Nyx and see how that affects the matchup win rate. My guess without running those tests is that Nyx will give 8Rack at least a slightly better win rate than Leyline. It also is probably relevant in more matchups than Leyline is.
Burn all have 2(3?) Destructive Revelry that we expect would come in anyway (rack, affliction)... leyline seems to walk right into that plan to begin with. I would have to agree I wouldnt promote leyline vs burn in 8rack since we show targets in game 1 for revelry (which are also win-cons for 8rack).
Thanks very much for the analysis. I've added it to the primer.
We run slightly different sideboards so I was debating dropping Life for a 4th Nyx, but my feeling is not every Burn list runs Relic so Life will be greater than in those tests overall. Curious if you know approximately what percentage of Burn lists run it.
I'm going to try Nyx vs Affinity over the next while to see if it's worth it.
I don't recall a single day when Burn was an easy win. The answer back in the day was to mediate the damage with a Spellskite. You could either splash blue to nullify a single source of damage per turn, or remain straight black and perform a 1/3 reduction in bolt damage off of phyrexian life mana. As for the current climate when assessing the ability to handle a burn deck, we have Ktkenshinx to provide us with clinical trials with measurable data on the subject. His efforts and execution are nothing short of herculean.
Yet, they don't seem to be received as such by some, one. We can actually see where the facts lie, but some would say that, indeed, 'facts lie'. Look at the numbers, man. Admittedly, you state that game 1 is rough, but answers in the form of Pack Rat over Bitterblossom are dubious at best. As for where they've been and where they've arrived: Burn hasn't lost anything in the bannings, and have gained Monastery Swiftspear and, far more critically, Eidolon of the Great Revel. It all comes down to who gets a good draw, but the data trials have mediated the outlier/lucky games and shown us where things are Today. Hats off to ktkenshinx.
The real question moving forward is Nyxathid versus Ensnaring Bridge. Ktkenshinx offered illuminating numbers on the prevalence of artifact kill that's out there (particularly maindeck), and that was some optimistic stuff (the answer was very little: Qasali pridemage and abrupt decay and a few others in limited supply). But, the Top 8 at the last premier is showing a butt-ton of artifact destruction. That's some sad trombone. And, just as far as a deck design goes, Abzan is the real deal. And, burn when it comes to siding in some artifact hate (or enchantment hate, so watch out Leyline of Sanctity as Destructive Revelry is in town for round 2). I don't know where to turn on this topic. Bottom line, as Destroyermaker often points out, you can't overload the 3 CMC slot. If you're doing Raven's Crime, 8 is about it...maybe 9. This approach is lending itself to a bridge variant as the non-specific style of discard is not terribly disruptive (raven's crime), so your focus turns towards a 'burn win' with your Black Rack deck. Turtle up behind the bridge and start lobbing Rack-Bolts across the divide.
The other approach is more offensive. It's this new cat on the block: Nyxathid....hmmmm, so enchanting. I'll have to do some more testing before really forming an opinion on this guy. But, I'm optimistic. Smashpacman, I dig your style dude. My initial impression of your recent declared adjustment of moving to 4 Nyxathid seems to make sense. If Nyxathid is, in some sense, your Ensnaring Bridge and an additional win-con (((if only, we could win a game with an ensnaring bridge on its own!!!))), then why not max it....save for the dictum that prohibits an overage of 3-CMC spells.
Lastly, Blightning. It's been tried. I did it in a Waste Not iteration of Black Rack. Others have tried it with similar minimal success in Black/Red splashed decks. I'm skeptical. But, the synergy with Nyxathid, and the total commitment to an all out scorched-earth discard your world style play has me reassessing. When trimming my thoughts on how I'd build a red/black deck, I'm continually drawn to minimizing my blightning count. Am I wrong?
Where is this notion that Burn was ever an unwinnable matchup coming from?? My God please look at some of my old daily replays as an example. Burn was rough in Game 1 when Bitterblossom was in fashion, but ever since Rat, I find the match quite easy. Leyline > Burn. Its worth mulling to. I also have burn decks and have played them plenty. The best way to learn how to beat something is to play it yourself and get beat.
Game 1 is basically unwinnable. Games 2/3 are certainly winnable, but I would argue that it's better to win them off Nyx than it is to win them off Leyline. That's especially true given the current configurations of Burn.
The easiest way to test this would just be to re-run the game 2/3 tests with Leyline instead of Nyx and see how that affects the matchup win rate. My guess without running those tests is that Nyx will give 8Rack at least a slightly better win rate than Leyline. It also is probably relevant in more matchups than Leyline is.
Or maybe you are doing it wrong in game 1. Burn is all about winning game 1 then praying you can fight thru the hate in games 2-3. Winning game 1 vs burn is basically winning the match, if you have a proper sideboard. I'll find someone in mtgo to chain test against and ill post some vids. Ive played around with Nyx more, hes fine in burn, and good in twin and delver tempo. I dont like him against Junk or combo or Tron or basically anything with white or black removal. Twin however is already a no brainer, and delver tempo is basically gone now. Sure its good but its lost its cult of lemmings. So we are basically left with Nyx being good at Burn, where Rat is pretty decent already. So a meta selection card. Havent tested against affinity yet.
Or maybe you are doing it wrong in game 1. Burn is all about winning game 1 then praying you can fight thru the hate in games 2-3. Winning game 1 vs burn is basically winning the match, if you have a proper sideboard. I'll find someone in mtgo to chain test against and ill post some vids. Ive played around with Nyx more, hes fine in burn, and good in twin and delver tempo. I dont like him against Junk or combo or basically anything with white or black removal. Twin however is already a no brainer, and delver tempo is basically gone now. Sure its good but its lost its cult of lemmings. So we are basically left with Nyx being good at Burn, where Rat is pretty decent already. So a meta selection card at best.
It would be one thing if we found that game 1 was a rough matchup and everyone else here said "wait no, that's one of my best!" That would probably force us to reconsider the results or maybe re-run them. But it's another thing entirely when our testing just confirmed what basically every player here said. It also confirms the theoretical outcome of the match which should be strongly in favor of Burn.
I've seen a bunch of the 8Rack vids both now and in the past. Game 1 is always dicey. Games 2/3 seem much better for us than game 1 because we get to swap out useless cards for relevant ones. Bridge and Rat are just not good cards against Burn. Almost anything you bring in is better. Burn just gets to swap out slightly useful cards (Blaze isnt great but is still relevant) into slightly more useful cards (Revelry) so we are definitely the deck that improves much more after sideboarding.
Look at game 1 in this vid, I completely commit to Pack Rat as the win con (primarily because I draw no others) and within 2 turns it takes over the game.
Nyx vs Twin seems flat out incorrect - they don't dump their hand, Bridge is great against them, and even if they run Grudge, our Extractions double as hate for it and their combo pieces. Similar situation with Delver. Nyx is for decks that HAVE to dump their hand or suffer for it - either way we benefit. The only decks I know of that do this are Burn, Affinity, and to a lesser extent, Zoo. It's no more a meta card than Leyline is, since Leyline was only really ever there for Burn, and Burn is always a thing.
Regarding Rat vs Burn, situations like that have happened to me but they are rare. You're having one of those games where you have all the right discard at the right time (Wrench Mind is critical), and they have a somewhat weak hand (mull to 6, three burn spells for 9 damage, one of which you discard). Rat is good vs any deck when hands are matched up like that. More often it's just too slow - they keep seven, I don't have Inquisition and Wrench Mind (one or the other), and they burn me out before Rat really matters. Check out the Pack Rat clock in the primer - it takes 5 turns to do 20. When our hands matchup like yours do in the video this is fine, but most of the time they're going to have more pressure that we have to deal with - we can't give up 5 turns in which they fling all their spells at us. It's worse if they have Searing Blaze/Blood. Maybe I'm overestimating their effectiveness and underestimating ours, but I don't think so.
Look at game 1 in this vid, I completely commit to Pack Rat as the win con (primarily because I draw no others) and within 2 turns it takes over the game.
Just because a card wins one game doesn't make it good in that game generally. Rat won me a game in our tests too. A card would need to regularly perform to be good in a matchup, and Rat definitely doesn't do that.
My point was that Rat holds its own here, while not being a dud in other matches where we need more help. There is nothing wrong with leaning on Leyline either. If someone chooses to play a linear strategy like Red Burn they are accepting that certain cards shut off their avenue of attack. They are betting on most people not having Leyline in their side
(you know, kinda how we do???). I am double bluffing them and running it in an all black deck so they are in no way prepared for it in game 2.
Leyline crushes them. I was saying that in the video which I made before we were even discussing this. I'm not just making this up now, I've been saying it all along. Basically you need to L2side if you are having problems with burn. This rule applies to almost every deck.
Nyx is good vs Twin DM. Try it vs Goyf Twin and see for yourself. They cannot profitably get rid of it and hes always bigger than their goyfs. He does nothign to prevent them from combing off but really, do we need more help there?
Except they're not betting on it because most lists now run Revelery or Wear//Tear. Maybe I'm mistaken, but it seems like at least on MTGO, most lists used to be monored but that's no longer the case - that's why we've been searching for a different answer. Leyline can crush them, if they're mono or multicolour but don't see an answer, or we discard it. Usually or at least too often lately, neither occurs, or they just beat us with creatures, and Nyx seems to perform statistically as well or better than Leyline in winning games, so why wouldn't I use it instead?
I'll try it vs Goyf Twin, though I remain skeptical. Do you side out Bridges for it?
Re: Rat
I never said we shouldn't maindeck it. In fact, in a metagame that is at least 15%+ Junk, I would never cut it. I'm just saying that the card isn't good in game 1 against Burn. It might steal a win every now and then against Burn decks with slow starts or if 8Rack has good hands, but overall it is not a card that we see in the Burn matchup and go "Glad I got this baby in my hand!".
Re: Leyline
I have no issue with Leyline against Burn. It's a decent sideboard card in the Burn matchup, even if it will be vulnerable to the 2+ Revelries that they will definitely sideboard in. My problem with Leyline is that it isn't very good against other decks, which means our sideboard isn't as diversified as it could be. Where else do we see it in this format? Decks like Bogles and Amulet can run it against Junk because they need to get their business done in the first 4 turns, and the earliest that Junk can really deal with a Leyline is turn 3 in many cases. But we aren't running a game plan similar to Bogles/Amulet/etc. so that doesn't really apply to us. As for other non-Burn matchups, Leyline is notoriously bad against Scapeshift, fairly useless against creature-heavy Zoo decks, and almost entirely irrelevant against every other notable deck in the format.
If we can find cards like Nyx (potentially) that both help the Burn matchup AND help other matchups, that's a huge win for our sideboard economy. Leyline is definitely great against Burn but I don't like dedicating 3-4 cards to it in a field that is as diverse as Modern. This should be especially true for MTGO players who see events that can be even more diverse than the overall field. If Leyline is giving us an 80% win rate against Burn but doesn't do anything against other decks, I would rather use Nyx that gives us a 65% win rate against Burn but might also help us elsewhere.
Of course, it remains to be seen if Nyx really does help elsewhere, but my suspicion is that it will. If not, we can always revisit Leyline.
Re: Rat
I never said we shouldn't maindeck it. In fact, in a metagame that is at least 15%+ Junk, I would never cut it. I'm just saying that the card isn't good in game 1 against Burn. It might steal a win every now and then against Burn decks with slow starts or if 8Rack has good hands, but overall it is not a card that we see in the Burn matchup and go "Glad I got this baby in my hand!".
Re: Leyline
I have no issue with Leyline against Burn. It's a decent sideboard card in the Burn matchup, even if it will be vulnerable to the 2+ Revelries that they will definitely sideboard in. My problem with Leyline is that it isn't very good against other decks, which means our sideboard isn't as diversified as it could be. Where else do we see it in this format? Decks like Bogles and Amulet can run it against Junk because they need to get their business done in the first 4 turns, and the earliest that Junk can really deal with a Leyline is turn 3 in many cases. But we aren't running a game plan similar to Bogles/Amulet/etc. so that doesn't really apply to us. As for other non-Burn matchups, Leyline is notoriously bad against Scapeshift, fairly useless against creature-heavy Zoo decks, and almost entirely irrelevant against every other notable deck in the format.
If we can find cards like Nyx (potentially) that both help the Burn matchup AND help other matchups, that's a huge win for our sideboard economy. Leyline is definitely great against Burn but I don't like dedicating 3-4 cards to it in a field that is as diverse as Modern. This should be especially true for MTGO players who see events that can be even more diverse than the overall field. If Leyline is giving us an 80% win rate against Burn but doesn't do anything against other decks, I would rather use Nyx that gives us a 65% win rate against Burn but might also help us elsewhere.
Of course, it remains to be seen if Nyx really does help elsewhere, but my suspicion is that it will. If not, we can always revisit Leyline.
I dont understand the logic of being afraid to run a full set of Leylines to crush burn. If it did nothing else for me, that would be more than enough. Its just like Bridge in that it must be dealt with in order for certain plans to proceed. Bridge + Leyline = lockout. Leyline also has some splash hate against random decks that sometimes crop up like ad nauseum and gifts combo. It used to be great against storm, but I dont trust it as completely as I once did there as they tend to run bounce more often now. I also do not buy the "they will remove it with white disenchants" argument. First they are not expecting it from a mono black deck. Second they need to be racing us, and utility cards slow them down. Burn's best approach is just to win first...you know like how they always try to do. If you think bridge is bad here its because you havent locked people out with bridge and Leyline. This is an old trick that I used to use as a primary lock tool in my RW lockdown deck. Oddly the RW lockdown deck is what 8Rack evolved out of for me as I started experimenting with different colors while still using that same lockout.
@DM- No I wasnt siding out for the nyx vs GoyfTwin, I was using the (crappy) list by that IQ top 16 winner. I was intending to show how it was bad in the video, but it ended up working as a great alt win con vs GoyfTwin. The thing is, I dont need any more help there, the only thing I was proving is just how bad Twin is vs hand control in general.
Ug i hate it already. Might have to start running bridges after all, seeing as everyone and their mother will probably be jumping on.
Glad to see my crazy idea paid off.
Between their speed and us boarding in Needles, Blasts, and Blights (or whatever you use), I've been wondering if Nyxathid would work against Affinity after all. I have run into a situation or two against them where I've wanted it instead of Bridge.
SIDEBOARDING STRATEGY
Because game 1 was so ugly, it was pretty easy to identify cards that sucked and replace them with cards that didn't. Bridge and Rat were obvious cuts; I know some people might be tempted to run 1-2 Bridges in this matchup, but it's just really terrible against Burn. For every time it works in a game and stops attacks on turn 3, there are 3-4 games where it doesn't do anything when you play it. When we add to that the fact that Burn is definitely bringing in artifact/enchantment removal for this game, it's clear that Bridge is just not going to work. Rat also fails because it's way too slow; it's a Dakmor Bat without flying in most games.
So what comes in? Our sideboard tested out the Nyxathid tech alongside some removal and Syphon Life. Although these cards are definitely good in the Burn matchup, they also feel relevant in other aggressive matchups as well. Given that we were using 4 Leyline just for Burn, it seems way better to use 3-4 Nyx instead for that matchup; they are more proactive, way harder for Burn to deal with, and are more relevant in other matchups. We also put in a Darkblast as a nice bullet against Lavamancer and Guide and a Murderous Cut to handle Eidolon.
-4 Bridge
-2 Rat
-1 Crime
+3 Nyx
+2 Syphon
+1 Cut
+1 DB
Burn's sideboarding was even easier. We subbed out 2 Searing Blaze for 2 Revelry, keeping the 2 Blazes in to handle Nyx and Muta and then adding 2 Revelry to give Burn some outs against Racks and Afflictions. We then took out a Burst Lightning and a Shard Volley for a pair of Relics. We reasoned that the expected return on a Relic was greater than the expected return on those two spells. For one, Burst only deals 2 damage and most games were decided by 3+ life. So that wasn't even closing out the game in most cases, which made Relic a better option. Second, Relic handles both Raven and Syphon, the latter being a serious problem for Burn. Finally, a discarded Relic minimizes Wrench Mind's effect, often allowing the Burn player to keep another 3 damage spell instead. All of those reasons led us to bring in the Relics.
-2 Blaze
-1 Burst
-1 Shard
+2 Revelry
+2 Relic
GAMES 2/3 SUMMARY
Nyxathid was a MONSTER in these games. The 65% win rate in games 2/3 was a huge improvement over the dismal game 1 win rate, and Nyx was responsible for a big chunk of those wins. Without Bridge and Rat clogging up 8Rack's hands, the deck's average draws were much better and able to keep pace with Burn's speed. Indeed, as the summary stats will show, 8Rack was much faster in games 2/3 than in game 1, which was largely because Nyx hit so hard throughout our tests. Burn was still a potent opponent that pulled off a bunch of super speedy win and narrow comebacks (Lavamancer with Rack triggers on the stack is very depressing). Eidolon is also a really scary creature. But overall, Burn had a difficult time keeping up with 8Rack's threats. This meant that the inevitability factor of game 1 was no longer present in games 2/3 because 8Rack was putting on pressure earlier. Interestingly enough, however, the average win turn for 8Rack was actually slightly slower in games 2/3 than game 1. This was because Nyx would often prevent a Burn attack and/or force a block, which would prolong the game for about 1 more turn on average as Burn tried to stay in it. As a final note, this 65% overall win rate is a little misleading because, unlike in game 1, the play/draw win rate was pretty different. This would definitely impact 8Rack's performance in a 3 game match, and is something we would have to consider at larger events.
GAMES 2/3 SUMMARY STATS
I'll take a 65% win rate over a 35% win rate any day of the week, but we still need to dive into those numbers to draw out the details. The stats are much more interesting and revealing than the flat win rate alone suggests.
Overall win rate: 65% (26/40)
Wins on the play: 75% (15/20)
Wins on the draw: 55% (11/20)
Mulligans: 5 total (4 to 6 cards, 1 to 5 cards, 1 of which was because of too many lands)
Mulligan win rate: 80% (4/5)
Unlike in game 1, being on the play/draw mattered a lot in games 2/3. One reason for this is that Nyx is the sort of win condition that needs to land early to have a chance of closing games. If Nyx is a turn behind, that might be the only turn that Burn needs to win. Another reason for this is just sample size. 8Rack was losing so many games in game 1 that we might have needed more data to know if the play or the draw was better. The good news is that we are still slightly positive on the draw, and I think we could improve that even more with some different sideboard tweaks. As for mulligans, it didn't even matter in these games; the 8Rack sideboard cards were just too strong anyway.
Average 8Rack win turn: 7.5 (game 1 = 6.75)
Average Burn win turn: 6 (game 1 = 7)
Average 8Rack life total in wins: 7 (game 1 = 3)
Average Burn life total in wins: 6 (game 1 = 12)
Those stats are interesting on their own but way more interesting in relation to the game 1 stats. In game 1, 8Rack needed to be slightly faster than Burn to win, which obviously wasn't going to happen. But in game 2, we see a very different dynamic. Burn now needs to be even faster than BOTH 8Rack in game 1 and Burn itself in game 1. But 8Rack is actually slightly slower than in game 1. How did that happen? Two reasons. The first is removal. Removal buys time for 8Rack to close out a game. With more removal, 8Rack gets an extra turn to do its magic and win. The second reason is Nyxathid, the monster itself. A turn 3 or turn 4 Nyx immediately stops all attackers for Burn. That's instantly another turn at our disposal, just by virtue of walling off a Guide and/or an Eidolon. Sure, if they have too many creatures they can just overrun you, but if they just have 1-2 dudes then that's not a profitable attack for Burn. The life totals also reflect this. 8Rack had almost twice as much life as in game 1 when it won, in large part because removal or Nyx bought us a turn. Meanwhile, Burn had HALF as much life on average when it won, which reflects that extra turn where Nyx swung or multiple Racks ticked. Either way, 8Rack was getting into a winning position faster than before, and Burn needed to win even faster to have a chance.
Now let's see why 8Rack was winning.
NYXATHID BEAST MODE: 11
Wins with 2+ Rack Burn: 5
Wins with Muta: 4
Wins with Rack/Lilly/Bridge lockdown: 3
Syphon Life: 3
Yeah, Nyxathid is a really scary card in this matchup. Burn just can't profitably interact with this card. It stonewalls attackers, it's a 2 turn clock in tandem with Racks, and it comes down early enough to make a difference. In theory, Burn has enough dudes to just run over a lone Nyxathid, but this isn't often how it works out. Between targeted discard and removal, an opponent is unlikely to have more than 2 creatures out by the time Nyx hits play. And given that Burn was winning games on about turn 6-7, you just aren't low enough on turn 3-4 for the Burn player to start hurling creatures into a Nyx. In fairness, some Nyx wins had support from other cards, particularly a singleton Rack. But those were also games where Nyx was doing way more legwork than the other cards that were helping it out. As for other win conditions, Rack burn remained strong even if it got upstaged by Nyx. Muta also remained a big performer, both on offense and as a blocker in stopping Eidolon swings. Lockdown mode was also decent in a pinch but, naturally, was still the weakest way to win. Syphon appears to have underperformed but it helped out in at least 3 of the other games and would have helped out more were it not for timely Relics. I'd still keep 1-2 in the board based on this, or 1 in the main and 1 in the board.
Losses to Eidolon: 7
Losses to Guide/MS Beatdown: 4
Losses to burn: 2
Losses to Lavamancer: 1
Losses to inevitability: 0
Alright, so Eidolon is still a big problem. At least 3 of these Eidolon games were really bad luck where I fired off a turn 1-2 TS/IoK and then the Burn player topdecked one on the next turn. Eidolon won basically the same number of games in games 2/3 as he did in game 1, which suggests that his power didn't diminish even with our sideboard cards. As a note, in case it was unclear, Darkblast was just as terrible against Eidolon as it sounds. It worked once...sort of. At least Cut put in good work against Eidolon. Apart from Eidolon, however, beatdown and burn were way less effective against Nyx, removal, and Syphon. The Eidolon wins in game 1 carried over to game 2 but these other win conditions definitely did not. It turns out that if you can roadblock Burn on turn 3-4 then it's very hard for them to close the game on turn 6-7. The dramatic drop in beatdown-based wins is a testament to Nyx and removal, both of which were great against little dudes.
GAMES 2/3 OVERALL IMPRESSIONS
1. Nyxathid > Burn
The Burn list we tested against is almost identical to the list piloted by Seth Manfield at Worlds, along with many other Burn lists in that field. That kind of Burn list is woefully unprepared for handling Nyxathid. Burn-based removal is just terrible at killing the creature because every spell cast from your hand increases Nyx's toughness by 1. So for Burn to kill Nyx with a single Bolt effect, they need to have 5+ cards in their hands. If they have 4 and cast Bolt at the 3/3 Nyx, it will survive as a 4/4 with 3 damage on it. This forces Burn to either expend lots of resources to kill Nyx or to just ignore it. Spending resources slows them down, takes cards out of their hand, and buys you at least 6 life. And ignoring Nyx tends to be fatal because this card hits HARD. If this guy proves strong in other matchups, I would strongly recommend going up to 4. To put it another way, in all the games I saw Nyx, I only lost 3 of them (4 if you count one where I never drew my third land until turn 6).
2. Rack/Nyx + Removal/TS/IoK = Wins
To win against Burn, you need two things. You need Rack/Nyx as a clock, and then you need removal, TS, and/or IoK to disrupt. If you have hands with disruption and removal, you aren't going to win. If you have hands with clocks but no targeted discard or removal, you aren't going to win either. This is because you need ways to handle Eidolon and because you can't take too much damage from Guides/MS before turn 3. Removal/TS/IoK will stop that, and then Rack/Nyx will close a game. It's tempting to keep other hand configurations against Burn because they seem good at first glance. For instance, keeping hands with lots of removal but no clocks is a bad idea; this puts us at the mercy of Burn inevitability. Also, keeping hands that don't have SELECTIVE discard is also risky. If you don't have removal or selective discard, that turn 2 Eidolon is going to be a huge problem. There are scenarios where Nyx can race an Eidolon, but those are uncommon.
3. Know when to attack, know when to defend
When you have Nyx and Muta in your arsenal, you need to know when to stay defensive and when to go offensive. This can be very tricky and often comes down to only a few points of life. It's less of an issue when Racks are involved because Racks have only one mode (burn opponent to death). Creatures are more complicated. By looking at an opponent's graveyard, you need to be able to guess what they are likely to draw. Generally speaking, you want to be aggressive with your attacks, especially if you have already killed some of the hasty creatures. They are much less common than burn spells, especially if you see some on the yard already. But when you have 2-3 life, these decisions really matter, and will be the difference between a win and a loss.
Overall, I think 8Rack has a lot of potential to win the supposedly unwinnable Burn matchup through smart sideboarding. 4 Nyxathid seems like a great call if we were already using 4 Leyline just for Burn, and unlike LoS, Nyx is a card that should have relevance elsewhere. This should help us shore up a terrible game 1 matchup with great win potential in games 2/3, which is exactly what we need to reliably pilot this deck to bigger finishes at bigger events.
Game 1 is basically unwinnable. Games 2/3 are certainly winnable, but I would argue that it's better to win them off Nyx than it is to win them off Leyline. That's especially true given the current configurations of Burn.
The easiest way to test this would just be to re-run the game 2/3 tests with Leyline instead of Nyx and see how that affects the matchup win rate. My guess without running those tests is that Nyx will give 8Rack at least a slightly better win rate than Leyline. It also is probably relevant in more matchups than Leyline is.
Burn all have 2(3?) Destructive Revelry that we expect would come in anyway (rack, affliction)... leyline seems to walk right into that plan to begin with. I would have to agree I wouldnt promote leyline vs burn in 8rack since we show targets in game 1 for revelry (which are also win-cons for 8rack).
Thirst for Knowledge % to hit artifact
We run slightly different sideboards so I was debating dropping Life for a 4th Nyx, but my feeling is not every Burn list runs Relic so Life will be greater than in those tests overall. Curious if you know approximately what percentage of Burn lists run it.
I'm going to try Nyx vs Affinity over the next while to see if it's worth it.
Yet, they don't seem to be received as such by some, one. We can actually see where the facts lie, but some would say that, indeed, 'facts lie'. Look at the numbers, man. Admittedly, you state that game 1 is rough, but answers in the form of Pack Rat over Bitterblossom are dubious at best. As for where they've been and where they've arrived: Burn hasn't lost anything in the bannings, and have gained Monastery Swiftspear and, far more critically, Eidolon of the Great Revel. It all comes down to who gets a good draw, but the data trials have mediated the outlier/lucky games and shown us where things are Today. Hats off to ktkenshinx.
The real question moving forward is Nyxathid versus Ensnaring Bridge. Ktkenshinx offered illuminating numbers on the prevalence of artifact kill that's out there (particularly maindeck), and that was some optimistic stuff (the answer was very little: Qasali pridemage and abrupt decay and a few others in limited supply). But, the Top 8 at the last premier is showing a butt-ton of artifact destruction. That's some sad trombone. And, just as far as a deck design goes, Abzan is the real deal. And, burn when it comes to siding in some artifact hate (or enchantment hate, so watch out Leyline of Sanctity as Destructive Revelry is in town for round 2). I don't know where to turn on this topic. Bottom line, as Destroyermaker often points out, you can't overload the 3 CMC slot. If you're doing Raven's Crime, 8 is about it...maybe 9. This approach is lending itself to a bridge variant as the non-specific style of discard is not terribly disruptive (raven's crime), so your focus turns towards a 'burn win' with your Black Rack deck. Turtle up behind the bridge and start lobbing Rack-Bolts across the divide.
The other approach is more offensive. It's this new cat on the block: Nyxathid....hmmmm, so enchanting. I'll have to do some more testing before really forming an opinion on this guy. But, I'm optimistic. Smashpacman, I dig your style dude. My initial impression of your recent declared adjustment of moving to 4 Nyxathid seems to make sense. If Nyxathid is, in some sense, your Ensnaring Bridge and an additional win-con (((if only, we could win a game with an ensnaring bridge on its own!!!))), then why not max it....save for the dictum that prohibits an overage of 3-CMC spells.
Lastly, Blightning. It's been tried. I did it in a Waste Not iteration of Black Rack. Others have tried it with similar minimal success in Black/Red splashed decks. I'm skeptical. But, the synergy with Nyxathid, and the total commitment to an all out scorched-earth discard your world style play has me reassessing. When trimming my thoughts on how I'd build a red/black deck, I'm continually drawn to minimizing my blightning count. Am I wrong?
Or maybe you are doing it wrong in game 1. Burn is all about winning game 1 then praying you can fight thru the hate in games 2-3. Winning game 1 vs burn is basically winning the match, if you have a proper sideboard. I'll find someone in mtgo to chain test against and ill post some vids. Ive played around with Nyx more, hes fine in burn, and good in twin and delver tempo. I dont like him against Junk or combo or Tron or basically anything with white or black removal. Twin however is already a no brainer, and delver tempo is basically gone now. Sure its good but its lost its cult of lemmings. So we are basically left with Nyx being good at Burn, where Rat is pretty decent already. So a meta selection card. Havent tested against affinity yet.
It would be one thing if we found that game 1 was a rough matchup and everyone else here said "wait no, that's one of my best!" That would probably force us to reconsider the results or maybe re-run them. But it's another thing entirely when our testing just confirmed what basically every player here said. It also confirms the theoretical outcome of the match which should be strongly in favor of Burn.
I've seen a bunch of the 8Rack vids both now and in the past. Game 1 is always dicey. Games 2/3 seem much better for us than game 1 because we get to swap out useless cards for relevant ones. Bridge and Rat are just not good cards against Burn. Almost anything you bring in is better. Burn just gets to swap out slightly useful cards (Blaze isnt great but is still relevant) into slightly more useful cards (Revelry) so we are definitely the deck that improves much more after sideboarding.
Look at game 1 in this vid, I completely commit to Pack Rat as the win con (primarily because I draw no others) and within 2 turns it takes over the game.
vs. red Burn
Regarding Rat vs Burn, situations like that have happened to me but they are rare. You're having one of those games where you have all the right discard at the right time (Wrench Mind is critical), and they have a somewhat weak hand (mull to 6, three burn spells for 9 damage, one of which you discard). Rat is good vs any deck when hands are matched up like that. More often it's just too slow - they keep seven, I don't have Inquisition and Wrench Mind (one or the other), and they burn me out before Rat really matters. Check out the Pack Rat clock in the primer - it takes 5 turns to do 20. When our hands matchup like yours do in the video this is fine, but most of the time they're going to have more pressure that we have to deal with - we can't give up 5 turns in which they fling all their spells at us. It's worse if they have Searing Blaze/Blood. Maybe I'm overestimating their effectiveness and underestimating ours, but I don't think so.
Just because a card wins one game doesn't make it good in that game generally. Rat won me a game in our tests too. A card would need to regularly perform to be good in a matchup, and Rat definitely doesn't do that.
(you know, kinda how we do???). I am double bluffing them and running it in an all black deck so they are in no way prepared for it in game 2.
Leyline crushes them. I was saying that in the video which I made before we were even discussing this. I'm not just making this up now, I've been saying it all along. Basically you need to L2side if you are having problems with burn. This rule applies to almost every deck.
Nyx is good vs Twin DM. Try it vs Goyf Twin and see for yourself. They cannot profitably get rid of it and hes always bigger than their goyfs. He does nothign to prevent them from combing off but really, do we need more help there?
I'll try it vs Goyf Twin, though I remain skeptical. Do you side out Bridges for it?
I never said we shouldn't maindeck it. In fact, in a metagame that is at least 15%+ Junk, I would never cut it. I'm just saying that the card isn't good in game 1 against Burn. It might steal a win every now and then against Burn decks with slow starts or if 8Rack has good hands, but overall it is not a card that we see in the Burn matchup and go "Glad I got this baby in my hand!".
Re: Leyline
I have no issue with Leyline against Burn. It's a decent sideboard card in the Burn matchup, even if it will be vulnerable to the 2+ Revelries that they will definitely sideboard in. My problem with Leyline is that it isn't very good against other decks, which means our sideboard isn't as diversified as it could be. Where else do we see it in this format? Decks like Bogles and Amulet can run it against Junk because they need to get their business done in the first 4 turns, and the earliest that Junk can really deal with a Leyline is turn 3 in many cases. But we aren't running a game plan similar to Bogles/Amulet/etc. so that doesn't really apply to us. As for other non-Burn matchups, Leyline is notoriously bad against Scapeshift, fairly useless against creature-heavy Zoo decks, and almost entirely irrelevant against every other notable deck in the format.
If we can find cards like Nyx (potentially) that both help the Burn matchup AND help other matchups, that's a huge win for our sideboard economy. Leyline is definitely great against Burn but I don't like dedicating 3-4 cards to it in a field that is as diverse as Modern. This should be especially true for MTGO players who see events that can be even more diverse than the overall field. If Leyline is giving us an 80% win rate against Burn but doesn't do anything against other decks, I would rather use Nyx that gives us a 65% win rate against Burn but might also help us elsewhere.
Of course, it remains to be seen if Nyx really does help elsewhere, but my suspicion is that it will. If not, we can always revisit Leyline.
I dont understand the logic of being afraid to run a full set of Leylines to crush burn. If it did nothing else for me, that would be more than enough. Its just like Bridge in that it must be dealt with in order for certain plans to proceed. Bridge + Leyline = lockout. Leyline also has some splash hate against random decks that sometimes crop up like ad nauseum and gifts combo. It used to be great against storm, but I dont trust it as completely as I once did there as they tend to run bounce more often now. I also do not buy the "they will remove it with white disenchants" argument. First they are not expecting it from a mono black deck. Second they need to be racing us, and utility cards slow them down. Burn's best approach is just to win first...you know like how they always try to do. If you think bridge is bad here its because you havent locked people out with bridge and Leyline. This is an old trick that I used to use as a primary lock tool in my RW lockdown deck. Oddly the RW lockdown deck is what 8Rack evolved out of for me as I started experimenting with different colors while still using that same lockout.
@DM- No I wasnt siding out for the nyx vs GoyfTwin, I was using the (crappy) list by that IQ top 16 winner. I was intending to show how it was bad in the video, but it ended up working as a great alt win con vs GoyfTwin. The thing is, I dont need any more help there, the only thing I was proving is just how bad Twin is vs hand control in general.