what would it take to make emrakul playable again btw?
Finding a shell, where you do not want to have the Shoal package for different reasons.
Greetings,
Kathal
i meant in the grishoalbrand shell, where it was widely played as a one of in the sideboard.
Path is the most played card in modern now and the prevalence of uwx decks makes me consider putting her back in. there are many matchups that a breached wurm isn't enough to win. also she is great against ad nauseam, but the addition of chalices in the sb greatly helps that matchup
I'm possibly going to scgcin so I've been brainstorming ideas on how to handle the metagame. pretty sad to see storm affinity and eldrazi tron leading the way. i really want to include a lost legacy as concession to storm to go along with chalices, but its utility is quite limited in this metagame. this also means lightning axe is likely going to be in for me for its general utility. anyome have any sb ideas for this metagame?
I feel like I'm getting into these tight situations way more often than not:eek: I feel like I am making the lower EV decision more often than not, but I'm not sure..
Situation: you are playing game 3 OTP vs. 4-Color saheeli. You lost game 2 due to RIP but sideboard very lightly still (-2 rituals, +1 lightning axe, +1 brutality). Your t3 combo got ruined by his RIP once again. Last turn, you maneuvered yourself into drawing 7 while staying at 1 after attacks. What's the best plan of attack here? I feel like in a live tournament, you wouldn't be afforded the time to actually think out the exact content of your deck, but you'd shortcut to the really relevant facts, which are: 1 borb, 1 shoal, 3 other green cards, 1 SSG, no rituals left
Situation: You have 16 cards left in the Bib, so even if you can draw 7 cards, you are down to 9 cards. However, you have a single Looting in hand, which draws another two cards, so that only 7 cards are left, which would enable another draw 7, if you would find Wurm + Shoal.
But now it gets iffy. You do not have enough mana to win this turn. Due to what cards are exiled and what you have boarded in and out, you cannot get to 11 mana to win this turn at all, even 10 mana (so 2 TTB) are impossible. Since there are no Rituals left in the deck you cap out at 9 mana, which would be enough, if you had Borbor AND the third SSG in hand already (TTB splice TTB on it, cheat both in, attack, if he Paths Griselbrand you can still win with Borbor, if he Paths Borbor you need to hit Shoal + Wurm, pitch Wurm and set-up a TTB Wurm for the next turn and win there).
This means, a win this turn is impossible using Griselbrand (but you are playing 4 Lightning Bolts ).
We have also to accept, that any form of interaction will result into a gg, we cannot play around a single interaction spell, be it Resto for blinking Reflector Mage, a Path or anything like this. Though, since he has 0 cards in hand, we can ignore this for this turn.
Furthermore, as long as we do not hit Borbor, we need two attacks to win.
To reap the most likely win this turn, I wouldn't have played the Swamp but instead the Temple. If there was anything but Borbo on top, put it on the bottom AND NOTE IT (especially important if it is a land)! Than go Looting. If you hit Borbor, you CAN win this turn (Attack for 7, he blocks 2, takes 5, drops down to 13, if you hit a land with your trigger, you can burn him for 15, otherwise you can clean up the board), if not, time for plan B.
He will most likely attack with everything next turn. TTB in Griselbrand, block the Angle, take 5, but gain 7 life, so you survive at 3 life. As long as he draws something irrelevant here, you can draw Borbor in your draw step again, to maybe win that turn (note, same difficulty to do, cause of only three lands in hand (you have to keep: 2xTTB, 2xGriselbrand, 3xLands) but he has no blockers, so he drops down to 11 life, where four lands are sufficient).
If he passes now (so no actual play but a land, or an irrelevant card) AND you do not draw Borbor, it is time for Griselbrand and hope. Why? Cause even if you TTB in the Griselbrand again to block with him, you cannot draw cards. You are at 3 life, he attacks for 5, you block Reflector Mage, gain 7, but lose 3, which puts you at exactly 7 life, which doesn't allow you to draw a single card.
So, TTB Griselbrand, you attack, and draw 7. You now need to hit Shoal + Wurm in that draw seven and with the next drawstep TTB + 1 Wurms or Borbo (if you you have all 4 TTB in the deck, otherwise it makes this line impossible).
If you hit this combination, you can win in your next turn and you can withstand an attack, even IF he played a big creature in his turn (cause you are at 14 and he has 5 power on the battlefield).
Depending on his draw, you might even have another turn to survive to draw the missing piece.
Those would be my thoughts at this point in time, will roughly take a minute to find this solution imo. The most crucial point is, that you need to know, that you cannot win with Griselbrand in that turn, from there, you need to find a winning line or at least the best line.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
interesting to hear your thought process as always, Kathal. Especially given that we did the completely opposite thing
First to note - their deck is littered with outs if we do not kill this turn. I count, conservatively, 3 Felidar Guardians (blink reflector mage), x Restoration Angel (blink reflector mage), 3 paths, 2-3 chord/eldritch evolution (assuming they have kiki-jiki), 1 kiki-jiki, 3 Saheeli Rai pinging you. Not going for it this turn has a real cost to begin with.
Note that we have 5 lands+1 landdrop+2 SSG to start...
1a)the only way we can cleanly win this turn through a Breached Griselbrand is if we hit exactly a Shoal+green card+Borborygmos+SSG in the next 7 cards. Without running the exact numbers, I don't like the sound of those odds. Mana is the clear bottleneck to a clean win this turn
1b) If we breach Griselbrand in this turn, if we hit shoal+Wurm, we can shoal up, make our land drop, and hope to bring the band back together again next turn, which isn't the worst result given we've dug 7 cards deeper. This also opens up a Breached Wurm as a potential win condition, having dealt 7 this turn.
2) The third option that came across my mind was to play the swamp, hardcast Griselbrand and hope to fade maybe half their deck for a turn, and hope to combo next turn. This way, mana is no longer a bottleneck. You'd be really tempting fate though as you have to fade a lot of cards. The benefit of this route is that, should you fade their outs next turn, you're likely able to go through most of the deck with the 1 SSG/1 looting/2 hugs to find the Borborygmos win. If you do not find the win, you still have the option to Breach in Griselbrand to survive one more if you can survive one more of their draw step.
3) The fourth option that did not dawn on me is what your solution is: dig while leaving 5 mana open, hope to win on the spot by hitting a Breach or have have a Breached Griselbrand in hand to fend off their next attack. I calculate a 18% chance that we win on the spot (by seeing 3 cards through Temple and Looting to hit a Borborygmos). The thing I have with this line that if you have to leave up Breach on defense, you are going to have to discard valuable resources in looting/SSGs, and mana again will be a bottleneck next turn to the degree that if you miss on the 18%, you will certainly need to fade two draw steps from them to have a chance at winning.
After chewing through your post and writing this down, I'm still unsure of the best line without doing the math. The line of breaching in Griselbrand this turn seems unattractive, because hitting 4 exact cards out of 16 cards seems like bad odds, and you just die on the spot more often than not if you don't hit Shoal+Wurm. Even if you do, you are at the mercy of their top deck. The difference between my line and yours (2) and 3)) is that your line has an 18% of winning on the spot, then you have to fade two topdecks (let's say, 50%*50%) then have a 70% chance of winning (rough number). My line has to fade one top deck (say, 50%) then have a slightly lower chance of winning next turn (because you got to go thin the deck by 3 cards), so say 60%. Then if I fizzle, I have to fade another topdeck and then have a higher chance of winning next turn (say, 70%).
This is obviously all arbitrary numbers, but for interest:
EV(Kathal's line)=pr(win on the spot)+pr(win in two turns)=18%+(50%*50%)*70%=18%+17%=35%
EV(my line)=pr(win in 1 turn)+pr(win in two turns)=50%*60%+(50%*50)*70%=30%+17%=47%
Which isn't really what I expected, as intuitively I would think the 18% win chance on the spot would be worth more, but I guess it makes more sense if you have to fade two draw steps if you miss on the 18%.
Feel free to call my analysis nonsense:P I actually don't know if my assumptions are reasonable or which line is actually best still. What do you think about hardcasting Griselbrand?
I'm not as experienced as you two guys but here's my take. I would wait and breach the griselbrand as a blocker on their turn then try and go off on our turn. I would probably cast the faithless on this turn as well to try and set up the kill for next turn.
EDIT: After thinking about it some more doing this would mess us up as we would have 6 cards left in our library that would not be able to see without spending mana making the kill much less likely. I think the right play is hard casting the griselbrand and hope they don't have an answer for it.
It's a good point that if your deck size is not 7 or 14 after your draw step winning through griselbrand is going to be very hard. I think the line to take takes some knowledge of the opponent's deck and will be dependent on your risk tolerance (how willing are you to wait and try to fade their draw steps for a higher EV play?) as well as how many outs you assume their deck has left.
Dood I love these little puzzles that you post as it helps go through decisions that are not easy but have big implications. Please keep posting these.
bombed out of the SCGCIN Open at 3-3. On the drive over the night before I pondered for a long time as to how to combat the storm menace and I decided to swap out the 3 Blood Moons for 3 Leyline of Sanctity. I'd like to test this for the next bit - it comes into a lo tof lineups where Blood Moon would go but helps immensely with Storm. Maybe there's something there - I don't know.
Round 1 vs. James (Jund)
g1: James it on the play and proceeds to jund me out with multiple thoughtseizes, scooze and tarmogoyf.
g2: He mulls to 6 and starts with a pre-game Leyline of the Void. He proceeds to play stomping ground and not draw another land for ~5 turns. Along the way I brutality to see a perfectly good 6 card hand: Liliana of the Veilx2, terminate ,thoguhtseize, push, goyf, bob. I take the thoughtseize. I eventually pitch two SSG and hardcast Griselbrand on turn 6 while James is stuck on a stomping ground. Things are trivial from there
g3: I get to show off my new toy by revealing Leyline t0. I kill his bob with a Lightning axe and he durdles around for a bit by casting goyfs. I kill through vengeance around turn 5
1-0 (2-1)
Round 2 vs. Michael (Jeskai)
g1 I'm on the play and try to cantrip into some combo accordingly after he shows t1 Colonnade. However, I never am able to assemble it and he rides a very early snapcaster+Queller to victory
g2: this was a pretty well played game by Michael. He had t1 Relic but no pressure while I sculpted a hand with a Breach, double shoal+Wurm and Griselbrand. I EoT Shoal Splicing Breach which meets a Disdainful stroke. I try again next Eot with Shoal+Breach with 3 basics, temple and blackcleave cliffs, which meets a Cryptic Command (counter and bounce my tapland), which was a heads up play from him. I need to draw an immediate mana source but do not. I'm getting pressured with snapcasters so I'm forced to go for a naked breach with just a griselbrand and pact in my hand. I'm eventually in a spot where I'm at 4 life need to make a move. I cast a naked breach which meets a snapcaster+Disdainful Stroke, which taps him out. I pact it but my attack+draw 7 does not advance my game plan. I can now SSG+swamp into a night's whisper (to draw into a wurm -i had multiple shoals) to win next turn or brutailty the clique tha the had played so he's on a theoretically two turn clock (1 turn clock if he has any sort of burn). I go for the Night's Whisper and whiff
1-1 (0-2)
Round 3 vs. Robby (Naya Company)
G1 he has a fast Nacatls+other assorted dorks draw and I don't find the combo
Sideboard: +1 Lightning Axe (expected Thalia/Eidolon after seeing Coco and white mana) +2 Bontu's Last Reckoning -2 Rituals -1 Brutality
g2: he actually gets a Thalia and Eidolon of Rhetorics out. On the penultimate turn I Borborygmos him and idiotically misses lethal when he went down to 12 and I revealed 2 lands, making the total in hand 4 lands. I clean u pthe THalia and win with a breached wurm the turn after
g3: Here's where I think I made my first big mistake. I mull OTD a hand of 4 lands, 2 shoals and TTB, which does nothing. My M6 is a bit more reasonable: Swamp Griselbrand Borborygmos Whisper Vengeance and irrelevant non-land card. I keep and scry into a Faithless Looting. I am on the draw. WWYD?
I end up bottoming the looting, reasoning I can discard to hand size within a reasonable time range if I drew another land with Whisper. I end up a very fast Nacatls+KOTR draw and the turn before I can discard Griselbrand he plays an active scooze and even with 2 Goryo's Vengeance I am not able to reanimate Griselbrand
1-2 (1-2)
Round 3 s. Matthew (Grixis Shadows)
While pondering mulligans Matthew apologizes about taking time and metnions soemthing about counting. That plus a t1 Steam Vents tapped made me think he was on storm. Unfortunately, he plays Marsh Flats into Watery Grave and soon Thoughtseizes away Breach in a hand of lands+Breach+Wurm. I had Looted a Griselbrand away t1 and am now left with lands and Wurm. He finishes his turn by playing serum vision. I finish my next turn by drawing Goryo's Vengeance and killing him.
(this is still one of our worst matchups - maybe 10/90)
sideboard; +3 Leyline of Sanctity +3 Chalice of the Void +1 Brutality -2 Hugs -2 Ritual -1 Breach -1 Wurm -1 Temple
G2: I keep a mediocre hand with cantrips and promptly draws a Leyline on turn 2. We both durdle for a bit where he Stubborn Denials my Whispers twice with me at two lands and 1 SSG in hand. I let the first one get countered but SSGs for the second one. Eventually he has a 4/4 Shadow and Tasigur. I have an interesting sequence where I start the turn with 3 lands in play and after my Lootin's resolution my hand is something like: swamp, SSG, Chalice, Goryo's Vengeance, shoal and Wurm. I decide to chalice for leving 1 land open, which he hemhaws for a while and lets resolve.
I can now Vengeance with my SSG (he's at 9 life I'm at 16 life) without fearing for Denial but I decide against it because Shadow makes math very hard and I would have no open lands, 2 SSG and 0 rituals left in the deck. Instead I opt to Vengeance at end step, buut that was a mistake as if I was going to Vengeance into his turn I should've done so after he declares combat. Anyway I Vengeance in Griselbrand on my End Step and he termiantes it, which prompts me to draw a bunch, Shoal once, and keep a hand with 2 Vengeances for the next turn. The next 3 turns are him attacking me to a sliver of life and me surviving every turn with shoal+Wurm (Shadow was 11/11 at the end because I griselbranded him while and Tasigur 4, but shoal gains 11). The nextwo turns I cheat in griselbrand but just attacks and do not draw #7 so I can take 10+damage every turn and survive every turn with shoal until my final Breach prompts a concession
2-2 (2-0)
Round 5 vs. Parker (Naya Vizier Knights)
G1 and g2 are pretty simple: I t3 Griselrand kill game 1. Game 2 he mulligans to 6 and scoozes on his second turn. I -2/-2 and discards him with Borborygmos and discards his Coco and kills scooze. Once I see that there are no paths and draw a ritual t3 I tap 3 lands+ritual+shoal pitching shoal Splicing Breach cheating in Wurm, which took the entire hand. I kill him with my t3 wurm
I go tthe feeling that he wasn't very experienced in the matchup, and it showed
3-2 (2-0)
Round 6 vs. Marc Olivier (Eldrazi Tron)
A fellow Canadian! We make small talk and get it going. Funnily enough, I was at one corner of the table row and was surrounded by M.O., Dan Musser and his opponent, all playing Eldrazi tron. Need to fend off the Eldrazi invesion!!
game 1: He is pressuring my life with a natural tron into TKS. turn 5 is one of my last turns but I have 4 lands and Whsiper. Whisper gets me to Vengeance to kill him
g2 I make my second mistake of the day. By the second turn he has a chalice (don't do this kids) on 1 and cage in the first few turns after his mulligan to 6. I am in an interesting spot where after resolving Looting on my turn 3, my hand is:
And ad to discard 1 card from those 7. What would you have done? We can cheat Griselbrand in next turn with no disruption, so I pitched the Bontu's, since land+ritual+Shoal+Wurm+Griselbrand are required and Borb under Cage is a bit useless while Borb in hand during the cmobo has value. I should have kept the Bontu's and pitched the Borb because in a spot where I don't have the next turn win (probably through TKS ripping my Breach), then Bontus would be excellent.
As played, I ditched the Bontu's and get punsihed next turn by a TKS taking Breach. I die a horrible death
G3 M.O. a bunch of hate pieces in reilc/cage/chalice on 1. He has natural tron and curves into TKS and Karn with a turn 1 Cage. Karn pressures my lands which is a good play from the opponent as I was 1 mana away from Breach for 3 turns in a row given with the Cage, the only thing he needs to play around is Breach. He then Newlagmogs me and I am hatin glife
3-3 (1-2)
Conclusion:
I want to see how Leyline performs. Otherwise, I think the deck is in an avarege place in the meta game: the faster combos suck for us, but more dorky creature decks have emerged (like hoomans) but those dorky creature decks have adapted more and more are including full set of combo hate (thalia, eidolon, Kitesailer). I'm pretty sure I'm giong to run this out again in the Classic tomorrow and see what happens
So, I'm gonna take this to a store championship series tomorrow. There is always a lot of affinity and Dtron at this store. I'm also guessing there will be an uptick in storm and humans with the recent direction modo has been heading. What do you guys think of this list:
I like the list. It's a good list. I don't know what Geier Reach Sanitarium is, so I'm autocarding it to find out. Without knowing, I'd probably just run a basic over it.
The only thing I'd add is some number of Cathartic Reunion. I know there's people that don't like it, but like it or not, it digs deeper than any 1 single "draw spell" and sometimes that extra card is all you need. If you do expect a lot of Control, then I wouldn't do it, but otherwise, yep.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Thanks, yeah, hugs is always disappointing so I jut cut them for a brutality and an axe. Might be a mistake. I'm also too hesitant to cut the second morphose, although it's pretty much always my first cut after board
4:0 double draw in to top 8. Caught a lot of people off guard. Sadly I lost to an unexpected scavenging grounds in game 1 and straight punted game 2 in the top 8 and lost. Otherwise the deck felt good and surprisingly well positioned.
M1: easy mode vs slivers
M2: easily beat jeskai tempo
M3: not too difficult to beat 4c saheeli control
M4: starting at 31 life against burn makes the matchup pretty decent
It has some interesting things going for it, but that it's only 12 power as opposed to 15+15 means that it's probably not worthwhile? Notably, 7+12 does not equal 20 with Griselbrand or Borborygmos (by itself). Ultimately, I think it's interesting but doesn't replace Worldspine Wurm as Worldspine Wurm can be a 1 card win condition because of its power and respawn clause, but I may play around with it anyway because of its legendary nature.
Yeah, interesting. I love how Wurm leaves behind tokens, though. People are also way more,likely to shock themselves to 15 than 12. But legendary does open up some more lines of play. Does gain 12 make a meaningful difference over gain 11 in different draw permutations? I'm gonna guess it's not an upgrade but worth testing a bit.
PS, has anyone considered trimming the temples. I realize having some additional card selection is good, but I lost game one in the top 8 yesterday because I couldn't Goryo on turn 2. Having a tap land has cast me a turn more often than I would like. And that tuen has cost me the game a significant number of times as well.
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Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
i meant in the grishoalbrand shell, where it was widely played as a one of in the sideboard.
Path is the most played card in modern now and the prevalence of uwx decks makes me consider putting her back in. there are many matchups that a breached wurm isn't enough to win. also she is great against ad nauseam, but the addition of chalices in the sb greatly helps that matchup
Situation: you are playing game 3 OTP vs. 4-Color saheeli. You lost game 2 due to RIP but sideboard very lightly still (-2 rituals, +1 lightning axe, +1 brutality). Your t3 combo got ruined by his RIP once again. Last turn, you maneuvered yourself into drawing 7 while staying at 1 after attacks. What's the best plan of attack here? I feel like in a live tournament, you wouldn't be afforded the time to actually think out the exact content of your deck, but you'd shortcut to the really relevant facts, which are: 1 borb, 1 shoal, 3 other green cards, 1 SSG, no rituals left
Situation: You have 16 cards left in the Bib, so even if you can draw 7 cards, you are down to 9 cards. However, you have a single Looting in hand, which draws another two cards, so that only 7 cards are left, which would enable another draw 7, if you would find Wurm + Shoal.
But now it gets iffy. You do not have enough mana to win this turn. Due to what cards are exiled and what you have boarded in and out, you cannot get to 11 mana to win this turn at all, even 10 mana (so 2 TTB) are impossible. Since there are no Rituals left in the deck you cap out at 9 mana, which would be enough, if you had Borbor AND the third SSG in hand already (TTB splice TTB on it, cheat both in, attack, if he Paths Griselbrand you can still win with Borbor, if he Paths Borbor you need to hit Shoal + Wurm, pitch Wurm and set-up a TTB Wurm for the next turn and win there).
This means, a win this turn is impossible using Griselbrand (but you are playing 4 Lightning Bolts ).
We have also to accept, that any form of interaction will result into a gg, we cannot play around a single interaction spell, be it Resto for blinking Reflector Mage, a Path or anything like this. Though, since he has 0 cards in hand, we can ignore this for this turn.
Furthermore, as long as we do not hit Borbor, we need two attacks to win.
To reap the most likely win this turn, I wouldn't have played the Swamp but instead the Temple. If there was anything but Borbo on top, put it on the bottom AND NOTE IT (especially important if it is a land)! Than go Looting. If you hit Borbor, you CAN win this turn (Attack for 7, he blocks 2, takes 5, drops down to 13, if you hit a land with your trigger, you can burn him for 15, otherwise you can clean up the board), if not, time for plan B.
He will most likely attack with everything next turn. TTB in Griselbrand, block the Angle, take 5, but gain 7 life, so you survive at 3 life. As long as he draws something irrelevant here, you can draw Borbor in your draw step again, to maybe win that turn (note, same difficulty to do, cause of only three lands in hand (you have to keep: 2xTTB, 2xGriselbrand, 3xLands) but he has no blockers, so he drops down to 11 life, where four lands are sufficient).
If he passes now (so no actual play but a land, or an irrelevant card) AND you do not draw Borbor, it is time for Griselbrand and hope. Why? Cause even if you TTB in the Griselbrand again to block with him, you cannot draw cards. You are at 3 life, he attacks for 5, you block Reflector Mage, gain 7, but lose 3, which puts you at exactly 7 life, which doesn't allow you to draw a single card.
So, TTB Griselbrand, you attack, and draw 7. You now need to hit Shoal + Wurm in that draw seven and with the next drawstep TTB + 1 Wurms or Borbo (if you you have all 4 TTB in the deck, otherwise it makes this line impossible).
If you hit this combination, you can win in your next turn and you can withstand an attack, even IF he played a big creature in his turn (cause you are at 14 and he has 5 power on the battlefield).
Depending on his draw, you might even have another turn to survive to draw the missing piece.
Those would be my thoughts at this point in time, will roughly take a minute to find this solution imo. The most crucial point is, that you need to know, that you cannot win with Griselbrand in that turn, from there, you need to find a winning line or at least the best line.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
First to note - their deck is littered with outs if we do not kill this turn. I count, conservatively, 3 Felidar Guardians (blink reflector mage), x Restoration Angel (blink reflector mage), 3 paths, 2-3 chord/eldritch evolution (assuming they have kiki-jiki), 1 kiki-jiki, 3 Saheeli Rai pinging you. Not going for it this turn has a real cost to begin with.
Note that we have 5 lands+1 landdrop+2 SSG to start...
1a)the only way we can cleanly win this turn through a Breached Griselbrand is if we hit exactly a Shoal+green card+Borborygmos+SSG in the next 7 cards. Without running the exact numbers, I don't like the sound of those odds. Mana is the clear bottleneck to a clean win this turn
1b) If we breach Griselbrand in this turn, if we hit shoal+Wurm, we can shoal up, make our land drop, and hope to bring the band back together again next turn, which isn't the worst result given we've dug 7 cards deeper. This also opens up a Breached Wurm as a potential win condition, having dealt 7 this turn.
2) The third option that came across my mind was to play the swamp, hardcast Griselbrand and hope to fade maybe half their deck for a turn, and hope to combo next turn. This way, mana is no longer a bottleneck. You'd be really tempting fate though as you have to fade a lot of cards. The benefit of this route is that, should you fade their outs next turn, you're likely able to go through most of the deck with the 1 SSG/1 looting/2 hugs to find the Borborygmos win. If you do not find the win, you still have the option to Breach in Griselbrand to survive one more if you can survive one more of their draw step.
3) The fourth option that did not dawn on me is what your solution is: dig while leaving 5 mana open, hope to win on the spot by hitting a Breach or have have a Breached Griselbrand in hand to fend off their next attack. I calculate a 18% chance that we win on the spot (by seeing 3 cards through Temple and Looting to hit a Borborygmos). The thing I have with this line that if you have to leave up Breach on defense, you are going to have to discard valuable resources in looting/SSGs, and mana again will be a bottleneck next turn to the degree that if you miss on the 18%, you will certainly need to fade two draw steps from them to have a chance at winning.
After chewing through your post and writing this down, I'm still unsure of the best line without doing the math. The line of breaching in Griselbrand this turn seems unattractive, because hitting 4 exact cards out of 16 cards seems like bad odds, and you just die on the spot more often than not if you don't hit Shoal+Wurm. Even if you do, you are at the mercy of their top deck. The difference between my line and yours (2) and 3)) is that your line has an 18% of winning on the spot, then you have to fade two topdecks (let's say, 50%*50%) then have a 70% chance of winning (rough number). My line has to fade one top deck (say, 50%) then have a slightly lower chance of winning next turn (because you got to go thin the deck by 3 cards), so say 60%. Then if I fizzle, I have to fade another topdeck and then have a higher chance of winning next turn (say, 70%).
This is obviously all arbitrary numbers, but for interest:
EV(Kathal's line)=pr(win on the spot)+pr(win in two turns)=18%+(50%*50%)*70%=18%+17%=35%
EV(my line)=pr(win in 1 turn)+pr(win in two turns)=50%*60%+(50%*50)*70%=30%+17%=47%
Which isn't really what I expected, as intuitively I would think the 18% win chance on the spot would be worth more, but I guess it makes more sense if you have to fade two draw steps if you miss on the 18%.
Feel free to call my analysis nonsense:P I actually don't know if my assumptions are reasonable or which line is actually best still. What do you think about hardcasting Griselbrand?
EDIT: After thinking about it some more doing this would mess us up as we would have 6 cards left in our library that would not be able to see without spending mana making the kill much less likely. I think the right play is hard casting the griselbrand and hope they don't have an answer for it.
Round 1 vs. James (Jund)
g1: James it on the play and proceeds to jund me out with multiple thoughtseizes, scooze and tarmogoyf.
In: +3 Leyline +1 Lightning Axe -2 Looting -2 Ritual
g2: He mulls to 6 and starts with a pre-game Leyline of the Void. He proceeds to play stomping ground and not draw another land for ~5 turns. Along the way I brutality to see a perfectly good 6 card hand: Liliana of the Veilx2, terminate ,thoguhtseize, push, goyf, bob. I take the thoughtseize. I eventually pitch two SSG and hardcast Griselbrand on turn 6 while James is stuck on a stomping ground. Things are trivial from there
g3: I get to show off my new toy by revealing Leyline t0. I kill his bob with a Lightning axe and he durdles around for a bit by casting goyfs. I kill through vengeance around turn 5
1-0 (2-1)
Round 2 vs. Michael (Jeskai)
g1 I'm on the play and try to cantrip into some combo accordingly after he shows t1 Colonnade. However, I never am able to assemble it and he rides a very early snapcaster+Queller to victory
Sideboard: +2 Pact of Negation +1 Brutality +1 Lightning Axe -2 Hug -2 Rituals
Blood Moon is missed here, but c'est la vie
g2: this was a pretty well played game by Michael. He had t1 Relic but no pressure while I sculpted a hand with a Breach, double shoal+Wurm and Griselbrand. I EoT Shoal Splicing Breach which meets a Disdainful stroke. I try again next Eot with Shoal+Breach with 3 basics, temple and blackcleave cliffs, which meets a Cryptic Command (counter and bounce my tapland), which was a heads up play from him. I need to draw an immediate mana source but do not. I'm getting pressured with snapcasters so I'm forced to go for a naked breach with just a griselbrand and pact in my hand. I'm eventually in a spot where I'm at 4 life need to make a move. I cast a naked breach which meets a snapcaster+Disdainful Stroke, which taps him out. I pact it but my attack+draw 7 does not advance my game plan. I can now SSG+swamp into a night's whisper (to draw into a wurm -i had multiple shoals) to win next turn or brutailty the clique tha the had played so he's on a theoretically two turn clock (1 turn clock if he has any sort of burn). I go for the Night's Whisper and whiff
1-1 (0-2)
Round 3 vs. Robby (Naya Company)
G1 he has a fast Nacatls+other assorted dorks draw and I don't find the combo
Sideboard: +1 Lightning Axe (expected Thalia/Eidolon after seeing Coco and white mana) +2 Bontu's Last Reckoning -2 Rituals -1 Brutality
g2: he actually gets a Thalia and Eidolon of Rhetorics out. On the penultimate turn I Borborygmos him and idiotically misses lethal when he went down to 12 and I revealed 2 lands, making the total in hand 4 lands. I clean u pthe THalia and win with a breached wurm the turn after
g3: Here's where I think I made my first big mistake. I mull OTD a hand of 4 lands, 2 shoals and TTB, which does nothing. My M6 is a bit more reasonable: Swamp Griselbrand Borborygmos Whisper Vengeance and irrelevant non-land card. I keep and scry into a Faithless Looting. I am on the draw. WWYD?
I end up bottoming the looting, reasoning I can discard to hand size within a reasonable time range if I drew another land with Whisper. I end up a very fast Nacatls+KOTR draw and the turn before I can discard Griselbrand he plays an active scooze and even with 2 Goryo's Vengeance I am not able to reanimate Griselbrand
1-2 (1-2)
Round 3 s. Matthew (Grixis Shadows)
While pondering mulligans Matthew apologizes about taking time and metnions soemthing about counting. That plus a t1 Steam Vents tapped made me think he was on storm. Unfortunately, he plays Marsh Flats into Watery Grave and soon Thoughtseizes away Breach in a hand of lands+Breach+Wurm. I had Looted a Griselbrand away t1 and am now left with lands and Wurm. He finishes his turn by playing serum vision. I finish my next turn by drawing Goryo's Vengeance and killing him.
(this is still one of our worst matchups - maybe 10/90)
sideboard; +3 Leyline of Sanctity +3 Chalice of the Void +1 Brutality -2 Hugs -2 Ritual -1 Breach -1 Wurm -1 Temple
G2: I keep a mediocre hand with cantrips and promptly draws a Leyline on turn 2. We both durdle for a bit where he Stubborn Denials my Whispers twice with me at two lands and 1 SSG in hand. I let the first one get countered but SSGs for the second one. Eventually he has a 4/4 Shadow and Tasigur. I have an interesting sequence where I start the turn with 3 lands in play and after my Lootin's resolution my hand is something like: swamp, SSG, Chalice, Goryo's Vengeance, shoal and Wurm. I decide to chalice for leving 1 land open, which he hemhaws for a while and lets resolve.
I can now Vengeance with my SSG (he's at 9 life I'm at 16 life) without fearing for Denial but I decide against it because Shadow makes math very hard and I would have no open lands, 2 SSG and 0 rituals left in the deck. Instead I opt to Vengeance at end step, buut that was a mistake as if I was going to Vengeance into his turn I should've done so after he declares combat. Anyway I Vengeance in Griselbrand on my End Step and he termiantes it, which prompts me to draw a bunch, Shoal once, and keep a hand with 2 Vengeances for the next turn. The next 3 turns are him attacking me to a sliver of life and me surviving every turn with shoal+Wurm (Shadow was 11/11 at the end because I griselbranded him while and Tasigur 4, but shoal gains 11). The nextwo turns I cheat in griselbrand but just attacks and do not draw #7 so I can take 10+damage every turn and survive every turn with shoal until my final Breach prompts a concession
2-2 (2-0)
Round 5 vs. Parker (Naya Vizier Knights)
G1 and g2 are pretty simple: I t3 Griselrand kill game 1. Game 2 he mulligans to 6 and scoozes on his second turn. I -2/-2 and discards him with Borborygmos and discards his Coco and kills scooze. Once I see that there are no paths and draw a ritual t3 I tap 3 lands+ritual+shoal pitching shoal Splicing Breach cheating in Wurm, which took the entire hand. I kill him with my t3 wurm
I go tthe feeling that he wasn't very experienced in the matchup, and it showed
3-2 (2-0)
Round 6 vs. Marc Olivier (Eldrazi Tron)
A fellow Canadian! We make small talk and get it going. Funnily enough, I was at one corner of the table row and was surrounded by M.O., Dan Musser and his opponent, all playing Eldrazi tron. Need to fend off the Eldrazi invesion!!
game 1: He is pressuring my life with a natural tron into TKS. turn 5 is one of my last turns but I have 4 lands and Whsiper. Whisper gets me to Vengeance to kill him
Sideboarding: +1 BOntu +1 Lightning Axe +2 Shattering Spree -2 Ritual -1 Temple -1 Brutality
g2 I make my second mistake of the day. By the second turn he has a chalice (don't do this kids) on 1 and cage in the first few turns after his mulligan to 6. I am in an interesting spot where after resolving Looting on my turn 3, my hand is:
Fetch, ritual, shoal, wurm, griselbrand, Bontu's Breach, Borb
And ad to discard 1 card from those 7. What would you have done? We can cheat Griselbrand in next turn with no disruption, so I pitched the Bontu's, since land+ritual+Shoal+Wurm+Griselbrand are required and Borb under Cage is a bit useless while Borb in hand during the cmobo has value. I should have kept the Bontu's and pitched the Borb because in a spot where I don't have the next turn win (probably through TKS ripping my Breach), then Bontus would be excellent.
As played, I ditched the Bontu's and get punsihed next turn by a TKS taking Breach. I die a horrible death
G3 M.O. a bunch of hate pieces in reilc/cage/chalice on 1. He has natural tron and curves into TKS and Karn with a turn 1 Cage. Karn pressures my lands which is a good play from the opponent as I was 1 mana away from Breach for 3 turns in a row given with the Cage, the only thing he needs to play around is Breach. He then Newlagmogs me and I am hatin glife
3-3 (1-2)
Conclusion:
I want to see how Leyline performs. Otherwise, I think the deck is in an avarege place in the meta game: the faster combos suck for us, but more dorky creature decks have emerged (like hoomans) but those dorky creature decks have adapted more and more are including full set of combo hate (thalia, eidolon, Kitesailer). I'm pretty sure I'm giong to run this out again in the Classic tomorrow and see what happens
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Temple of Malice
4 Swamp
2 Mountain
1 Geier Reach Sanitarium
4 Faithless Looting
4 Goryo's Vengeance
4 Through the Breach
4 Worldspine Wurm
4 Night's Whisper
3 Desperate Ritual
2 Manamorphose
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Borborygmos Enraged
1 Collective Brutality
4 Griselbrand
1 Lightning Axe
2 Engineered Explosives
3 Chalice of the Void
3 Blood Moon
1 Bontu's Last Reckoning
2 Shattering Spree
2 Pact of Negation
1 Kozilek's Return
1 Lightning Axe
The only thing I'd add is some number of Cathartic Reunion. I know there's people that don't like it, but like it or not, it digs deeper than any 1 single "draw spell" and sometimes that extra card is all you need. If you do expect a lot of Control, then I wouldn't do it, but otherwise, yep.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)M1: easy mode vs slivers
M2: easily beat jeskai tempo
M3: not too difficult to beat 4c saheeli control
M4: starting at 31 life against burn makes the matchup pretty decent