Running 4 copies of mana dork vs running 6 is roughly a 7% difference to have in your opening 7. So if you have only 4 Arbor Elfs, then it is 33% chance to have in the opening 7. With 4 Arbor Elfs and 2 Birds, then it is around 40%
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
Thanks for that. Useful information.
As I said in a previous post. Getting 3 mana on turn two is important.. so I'm keeping the birds in.
What we can deduce from this is we are going to get exactly the 2 land 1 ramp on average 14% of the time.
Additionally the difference between 8R + 22L and 10R + 22L which is the biggest in gain from the potential of having at least 1 Ramp and 2 Lands is 7%. What I have seen most list play that still run BOP is 1 BOP and 21 lands, as that was what I was also running, but you only lose 2% from that vs running no BOP and increasing the land count to 22 which is what Noob King was advocating for and it seems like the right decision in my book.
Noob king you are literally switching Huntmaster for Lightning Bolts otherwise you would also have pretty close to a “monster build” list. You aren’t that far off from other lists and I can promise you that 2 Lightning Bolts vs 2 Huntmasters doesn’t make you so much faster than the rest of us.
I realized i was forgetting something and it was the 5 mana garruk. I run 22 lands, not 23. It's ok, it has its moments but it's never been stellar so he can likely go too as soon as i find something substantially better at the five drop.
But im glad to see that stats support my argument. I guess it comes down to personal preference when it comes to birds. I still don't think that the very slight advantage is worth the edge over every time it's awful.
Running 4 copies of mana dork vs running 6 is roughly a 7% difference to have in your opening 7. So if you have only 4 Arbor Elfs, then it is 33% chance to have in the opening 7. With 4 Arbor Elfs and 2 Birds, then it is around 40%
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
Thanks for the link.
Your figures are for opening hands with EXACTLY one dork.
I ran the numbers and looked at how many hands have ZERO dorks/sprawls... i.e. mulligans. With 8 one mana accelerants in a 60 card deck, there is about a 35% chance to draw a hand with no accelerant. This figure drops to 25% when 10 one mana accelerants are in a 60 card deck.
On the Hazoret note; don't own a copy but my Ponza partner at my LGS swears by her. I see the value, she's a house. As soon as I get one I will run her, but only 1 copy I feel. You would prefer to draw her as you approach hellbent, and she's legendary to boot. I can see some logic behind 2 copies, but feel 3 is too many.
That was more/less my initial assessment of the card. No way in hell I'd want to jam three into my MB, but I can see how drawing into her at the right time can be money. I'm reluctant enough to the point where I even rarely ever play more than two Chandras. I definitely plan on testing a singleton of Hazoret at first, in place of an Inferno; I don't feel like the drop from two Titans to one will significantly impact much in regards to finishing games, but I agree; running more than 1-2 Haz just sounds like a potential nightmare waiting to happen.
We are running 4 elves, 4 utopia and 0~2 birds. We should look at Number of successes in population being 8~10. Thus, these are the numbers for a typical 7 hand. The numbers will be difference when we factor mulligans in. The meta that you play in will also matter.
Cumulative Probability: P(X >= 1) for
8 mana accelerator = 0.653593571
9 mana accelerator = 0.700225206
10 mana accelerator = 0.741370766
11 mana accelerator = 0.777578859
For lands, 21 lands or 22 lands are the standard. Generally, I will mull most 1 landers too.
There are a few factors after mulligans are taken into account.
From the numbers that I ran, a 8 mana accelerator 22 lands build is more explosive (4%ish more) as compared to a 10 mana accelerators 21 lands build while being more prone to mullganing (1% ish more). Play around with the numbers more and see what suits you. Also test it in games. Just goldfishing or theory crafting is not enough.
I'm of the opinion that 8 dorks is fine against a meta that is not used to facing ponza.
But as the meta that you are in gets used to ponza, getting a T2 3 mana play gets more important. A T3 Moon will not cut it once people fetches basics agsint you. I used to run 8 dorks, 22 lands and shifted to 10 dorks, 22 lands. 22 lands as I run 4x trackers.
I just ran the math in my previous post. Running the probability numbers individually ie how you did it doesn’t help. I ran them combined which is needed. If you would like to check my math here is how I did it as an example...
8 Ramp (Part 1)
Population size / 60 (deck size)
Number of successes in population / 8 (how many ramp cards in deck)
Sample size / 7 (opening hand)
Number of successes in sample / 1 (we need at least 1 ramp in opener)
The 2 relevant numbers are
X= 0.421712174 which equals 42% and is exactly 1 being in opener
X> 0.653593571 which equals 65% and is at least 1 in the opener possibly more (> is actually referring to greater than or equal to but I don’t have than symbol on my phone)
20 Lands (Part 2)
Population size / 60 (deck size)
Number of successes in population / 20 (how many land cards in deck)
Sample size / 6 (this changes because we still need 1 ramp card in the opener thus we have 6 cards remaining)
Number of successes in sample / 2 (we need 2 lands in the opener)
X= 0.346839017 which is 35%
X> 0.660462857 which is 66%
Combine them (Part 3)
Simple as you multiply them together
X= 14%
X> 42%
So what should we be taking away from these stats? We need to be looking at 8 mana accelerants vs 10 mana accelerants, right?
I thought I explained the results pretty well in my breakdown but I will try to rephrase it.
The goal was to find out which Ramp count and Land count would be the best combination to get the opener desired of at least 1 ramp and 2 lands. Technically the best outcome would be to have 10 Ramp and 22 Lands which totals to 53%. The most common configuration of Ponza lists I have seen is 9 Ramp and 21 Lands which gives a 48% chance to have the correct opener.
The problem is as both Noob King and I stated before that BOP is literally the worst topdeck in our deck. So the percentage needed to be significantly higher in order to justify the reason to run it. We both advocate running just the 8 Ramp and 22 Land because you only drop 2% to 46% from the “common build” of running the 1 BOP.
If you believe 2% is a deal breaker then that is your call but knowing that hitting a land is better after your opener should persuade you towards the 8 ramp 22 Lands setup.
10% more mulligans without birds is the killer for me.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
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10% more mulligans without birds is the killer for me.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
This is also wrong. Please stop misleading people. I have stated multiple times now the percentages I gave in my breakdown were from x= being exactly and x> being at least.
I understand where you are getting your number from. You are looking at the probability of not getting at least 1 mana dork in your opener. The problem with that is quite simple.
Just because you increase your ability to get a ramp card doesn’t mean you will automatically increase your ability to also get your lands too. We need BOTH the ramp and the lands. If you have 1 Ramp and 1 land you will throw it back more times than not. Same with 1 Ramp and no land which is why I did the math as I did.
So you’re incorrect with your 10% mulligan as it doesn’t look at the whole picture.
10% more mulligans without birds is the killer for me.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
This is also wrong. Please stop misleading people. I have stated multiple times now the percentages I gave in my breakdown were from x= being exactly and x> being at least.
I understand where you are getting your number from. You are looking at the probability of not getting at least 1 mana dork in your opener. The problem with that is quite simple.
Just because you increase your ability to get a ramp card doesn’t mean you will automatically increase your ability to also get your lands too. We need BOTH the ramp and the lands. If you have 1 Ramp and 1 land you will throw it back more times than not. Same with 1 Ramp and no land which is why I did the math as I did.
So you’re incorrect with your 10% mulligan as it doesn’t look at the whole picture.
I keep 1 land and 1 ramp often, especially if it's my 6 or I'm on the draw. 2 ramp and 1 land is also good.
Moonbreaker just for you I went ahead and did those. Here is the breakdown after choosing 3 different configurations (the suggested change of 8 Ramp and 22 Lands, the most common ran of 9 Ramp and 21 Lands, and the highest chance of attaining the desired outcome using 10 Ramp and 22 Lands):
Scenario 1: 1 Ramp and 1 Land after mulling down to 6.
8 Ramp & 22 Lands = 54%
9 Ramp & 21 Lands = 57%
10 Ramp & 22 Lands = 62%
So there is a slight increase in the difference from the suggested adjustment to the common build which was 2% to now 3% which still means not significant enough to me. Even the highest chance to attain the probability was still less than 10% difference.
Scenario 2: 1 Ramp and 1 Land on the draw.
8 R & 22 L = 69%
9 R & 21 L = 72%
10 R & 22 L = 77%
Literally the exact same separation from the 1st scenario (ie 3% and 8% from the suggested change)
Scenario 3: 2 Ramp and 1 Land (this should in theory be the best argument for more Ramp cards as there are more desired Ramp cards for this situation.)
8 R & 22 L = 21%
9 R & 21 L = 25%
10 R & 22 L = 30%
This is where I will rest my case. The most common build gains 1 more percent to put it at a whopping 4% difference. Even in the scenario which should give more ramp cards the best outcome and highest probability of the desire result is still less than 10%.
If it was over 10% then sure there is a valid argument to be made but the swap from 1 BOP to 1 Land is indeed negligible.
10% more mulligans without birds is the killer for me.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
This is also wrong. Please stop misleading people. I have stated multiple times now the percentages I gave in my breakdown were from x= being exactly and x> being at least.
I understand where you are getting your number from. You are looking at the probability of not getting at least 1 mana dork in your opener. The problem with that is quite simple.
Just because you increase your ability to get a ramp card doesn’t mean you will automatically increase your ability to also get your lands too. We need BOTH the ramp and the lands. If you have 1 Ramp and 1 land you will throw it back more times than not. Same with 1 Ramp and no land which is why I did the math as I did.
So you’re incorrect with your 10% mulligan as it doesn’t look at the whole picture.
Yours is not the only post I was referring to, you were quite thorough. And I am pretty close to the mark on 10% though, you're welcome to add your more thorough analysis on the numbers.
FYI I was conmparing 2 birds 21 land with 0 birds 22 land. I don't know about you but most lists I see are 2 birds not 1 bird.
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Running 4 copies of mana dork vs running 6 is roughly a 7% difference to have in your opening 7. So if you have only 4 Arbor Elfs, then it is 33% chance to have in the opening 7. With 4 Arbor Elfs and 2 Birds, then it is around 40%
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
Thanks for the link.
Your figures are for opening hands with EXACTLY one dork.
I ran the numbers and looked at how many hands have ZERO dorks/sprawls... i.e. mulligans. With 8 one mana accelerants in a 60 card deck, there is about a 35% chance to draw a hand with no accelerant. This figure drops to 25% when 10 one mana accelerants are in a 60 card deck.
On the Hazoret note; don't own a copy but my Ponza partner at my LGS swears by her. I see the value, she's a house. As soon as I get one I will run her, but only 1 copy I feel. You would prefer to draw her as you approach hellbent, and she's legendary to boot. I can see some logic behind 2 copies, but feel 3 is too many.
That was more/less my initial assessment of the card. No way in hell I'd want to jam three into my MB, but I can see how drawing into her at the right time can be money. I'm reluctant enough to the point where I even rarely ever play more than two Chandras. I definitely plan on testing a singleton of Hazoret at first, in place of an Inferno; I don't feel like the drop from two Titans to one will significantly impact much in regards to finishing games, but I agree; running more than 1-2 Haz just sounds like a potential nightmare waiting to happen.
I think that's incorrect.
Let me take Standard as an example. Mono red ran 1-2 Hazoret in their main until they realized that 4 was the way to go. You want to maximize your ability to draw her and playing 1 basically means you're not really interested in ever drawing the card in any given match.
You guys seem to forget that having multiples is generally not really a problem and that you can activate the discard ability to dump additional copies in your hand (that 2 damage is not irrelevant).
I played with 2 for a while and decided that 3 was the correct number as it was the 1 card i ALWAYS wanted to draw on curve. It was single-handed, the best card to close out the game quickly.
I rarely found myself with more than 2 cards in any given match where i got to go T1 accelerant, T2 Moon/Rain (that's 4 cards played already), T3 land/threat, T4 land/hazoret - swing. That's a pretty standard setup.
Running 4 copies of mana dork vs running 6 is roughly a 7% difference to have in your opening 7. So if you have only 4 Arbor Elfs, then it is 33% chance to have in the opening 7. With 4 Arbor Elfs and 2 Birds, then it is around 40%
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
Thanks for the link.
Your figures are for opening hands with EXACTLY one dork.
I ran the numbers and looked at how many hands have ZERO dorks/sprawls... i.e. mulligans. With 8 one mana accelerants in a 60 card deck, there is about a 35% chance to draw a hand with no accelerant. This figure drops to 25% when 10 one mana accelerants are in a 60 card deck.
On the Hazoret note; don't own a copy but my Ponza partner at my LGS swears by her. I see the value, she's a house. As soon as I get one I will run her, but only 1 copy I feel. You would prefer to draw her as you approach hellbent, and she's legendary to boot. I can see some logic behind 2 copies, but feel 3 is too many.
That was more/less my initial assessment of the card. No way in hell I'd want to jam three into my MB, but I can see how drawing into her at the right time can be money. I'm reluctant enough to the point where I even rarely ever play more than two Chandras. I definitely plan on testing a singleton of Hazoret at first, in place of an Inferno; I don't feel like the drop from two Titans to one will significantly impact much in regards to finishing games, but I agree; running more than 1-2 Haz just sounds like a potential nightmare waiting to happen.
I think that's incorrect.
Let me take Standard as an example. Mono red ran 1-2 Hazoret in their main until they realized that 4 was the way to go. You want to maximize your ability to draw her and playing 1 basically means you're not really interested in ever drawing the card in any given match.
You guys seem to forget that having multiples is generally not really a problem and that you can activate the discard ability to dump additional copies in your hand (that 2 damage is not irrelevant).
I played with 2 for a while and decided that 3 was the correct number as it was the 1 card i ALWAYS wanted to draw on curve. It was single-handed, the best card to close out the game quickly.
I rarely found myself with more than 2 cards in any given match where i got to go T1 accelerant, T2 Moon/Rain (that's 4 cards played already), T3 land/threat, T4 land/hazoret - swing. That's a pretty standard setup.
I definitely see where you're coming from based on that reasoning. Since I don't have experience playing her at any capacity, that was my main reason for asking those who do play her, how they go about doing so. My initial assessment was made under the assumption that Hazoret was just another win-con among the many potential finishers that have and currently see play in the deck; nothing that made her significantly better or worse than dropping Stormbreath as a finisher. What did you end up dropping in order to play 3 copies as opposed to 1?
I definitely see where you're coming from based on that reasoning. Since I don't have experience playing her at any capacity, that was my main reason for asking those who do play her, how they go about doing so. My initial assessment was made under the assumption that Hazoret was just another win-con among the many potential finishers that have and currently see play in the deck; nothing that made her significantly better or worse than dropping Stormbreath as a finisher. What did you end up dropping in order to play 3 copies as opposed to 1?
I don't play:
Bonfires
Birds
Inferno Titans
Was easy to fit her in.
I have 1 six drop (wurmcoil) which i basically don't want to see the majority of the time. I might actually cut that card entirely as a matter of fact. The only matchup it's good against is Tron. You'll never get to make good use of it against burn and if you, it's likely you were winning with anything, really.
It's good against random affinity games though. Especially if they land a champion.
I just found that her being 4 to cast, has an added ability and haste, can usually close out the game faster than titan. It costing 4 is a legitimate bonus because it allows you to keep looser hands that you simply couldn't keep with titans/bonfires.
And that's it right there. It allows you to keep your initial 7 way more often than not.
I definitely see where you're coming from based on that reasoning. Since I don't have experience playing her at any capacity, that was my main reason for asking those who do play her, how they go about doing so. My initial assessment was made under the assumption that Hazoret was just another win-con among the many potential finishers that have and currently see play in the deck; nothing that made her significantly better or worse than dropping Stormbreath as a finisher. What did you end up dropping in order to play 3 copies as opposed to 1?
I don't play:
Bonfires
Birds
Inferno Titans
Was easy to fit her in.
I have 1 six drop (wurmcoil) which i basically don't want to see the majority of the time. I might actually cut that card entirely as a matter of fact. The only matchup it's good against is Tron. You'll never get to make good use of it against burn and if you, it's likely you were winning with anything, really.
It's good against random affinity games though. Especially if they land a champion.
I just found that her being 4 to cast, has an added ability and haste, can usually close out the game faster than titan. It costing 4 is a legitimate bonus because it allows you to keep looser hands that you simply couldn't keep with titans/bonfires.
And that's it right there. It allows you to keep your initial 7 way more often than not.
Appreciate the breakdown. I don't run Bonfires/Titans either, but I'm still all aboard the Bird train. You've really gotten me intrigued about Hazoret now; I may bite the bullet and pick up two copies to start and do some tinkering.
I definitely see where you're coming from based on that reasoning. Since I don't have experience playing her at any capacity, that was my main reason for asking those who do play her, how they go about doing so. My initial assessment was made under the assumption that Hazoret was just another win-con among the many potential finishers that have and currently see play in the deck; nothing that made her significantly better or worse than dropping Stormbreath as a finisher. What did you end up dropping in order to play 3 copies as opposed to 1?
I don't play:
Bonfires
Birds
Inferno Titans
Was easy to fit her in.
I have 1 six drop (wurmcoil) which i basically don't want to see the majority of the time. I might actually cut that card entirely as a matter of fact. The only matchup it's good against is Tron. You'll never get to make good use of it against burn and if you, it's likely you were winning with anything, really.
It's good against random affinity games though. Especially if they land a champion.
I just found that her being 4 to cast, has an added ability and haste, can usually close out the game faster than titan. It costing 4 is a legitimate bonus because it allows you to keep looser hands that you simply couldn't keep with titans/bonfires.
And that's it right there. It allows you to keep your initial 7 way more often than not.
Appreciate the breakdown. I don't run Bonfires/Titans either, but I'm still all aboard the Bird train. You've really gotten me intrigued about Hazoret now; I may bite the bullet and pick up two copies to start and do some tinkering.
If Deathrite Shaman somehow got unbanned, I can assure you i would 100% run them as well. That'd easily be one of the best cards for the deck. But alas! Birds have no power
I just wish there was something better in their slot. As far as I'm concerned, it's a necessary evil for many of you. I encourage you to keep track of all the times you top decked the bird post your opener and how much you wish it was a land instead. Just as an exercise.
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0oSunnYo0 did a few posts above. Its still roughly adds about 10% chance if I'm reading it right
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Thanks for that. Useful information.
As I said in a previous post. Getting 3 mana on turn two is important.. so I'm keeping the birds in.
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(When I put x> that mean greater than or equal to)
8 Ramp 20 Land x> 42% / x= 14%
8R 21L x> 44% / x= 15%
8R 22L x> 46% / x= 14%
9R 20L x> 46% / x= 14%
9R 21L x> 48% / x= 15%
9R 22L x> 50% / x= 14%
10R 20L x> 48% / x= 17%
10R 21L x> 51% / x= 14%
10R 22L x> 53% / x= 14%
What we can deduce from this is we are going to get exactly the 2 land 1 ramp on average 14% of the time.
Additionally the difference between 8R + 22L and 10R + 22L which is the biggest in gain from the potential of having at least 1 Ramp and 2 Lands is 7%. What I have seen most list play that still run BOP is 1 BOP and 21 lands, as that was what I was also running, but you only lose 2% from that vs running no BOP and increasing the land count to 22 which is what Noob King was advocating for and it seems like the right decision in my book.
I realized i was forgetting something and it was the 5 mana garruk. I run 22 lands, not 23. It's ok, it has its moments but it's never been stellar so he can likely go too as soon as i find something substantially better at the five drop.
But im glad to see that stats support my argument. I guess it comes down to personal preference when it comes to birds. I still don't think that the very slight advantage is worth the edge over every time it's awful.
Bingo
That was more/less my initial assessment of the card. No way in hell I'd want to jam three into my MB, but I can see how drawing into her at the right time can be money. I'm reluctant enough to the point where I even rarely ever play more than two Chandras. I definitely plan on testing a singleton of Hazoret at first, in place of an Inferno; I don't feel like the drop from two Titans to one will significantly impact much in regards to finishing games, but I agree; running more than 1-2 Haz just sounds like a potential nightmare waiting to happen.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Cumulative Probability: P(X >= 1) for
8 mana accelerator = 0.653593571
9 mana accelerator = 0.700225206
10 mana accelerator = 0.741370766
11 mana accelerator = 0.777578859
For lands, 21 lands or 22 lands are the standard. Generally, I will mull most 1 landers too.
21 lands
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 1) 0.782769247
Cumulative Probability: P(X >= 1) 0.960174362
22 lands
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 1) 0.810062342
Cumulative Probability: P(X >= 1) 0.967322553
There are a few factors after mulligans are taken into account.
From the numbers that I ran, a 8 mana accelerator 22 lands build is more explosive (4%ish more) as compared to a 10 mana accelerators 21 lands build while being more prone to mullganing (1% ish more). Play around with the numbers more and see what suits you. Also test it in games. Just goldfishing or theory crafting is not enough.
I'm of the opinion that 8 dorks is fine against a meta that is not used to facing ponza.
But as the meta that you are in gets used to ponza, getting a T2 3 mana play gets more important. A T3 Moon will not cut it once people fetches basics agsint you. I used to run 8 dorks, 22 lands and shifted to 10 dorks, 22 lands. 22 lands as I run 4x trackers.
8 Ramp (Part 1)
Population size / 60 (deck size)
Number of successes in population / 8 (how many ramp cards in deck)
Sample size / 7 (opening hand)
Number of successes in sample / 1 (we need at least 1 ramp in opener)
The 2 relevant numbers are
X= 0.421712174 which equals 42% and is exactly 1 being in opener
X> 0.653593571 which equals 65% and is at least 1 in the opener possibly more (> is actually referring to greater than or equal to but I don’t have than symbol on my phone)
20 Lands (Part 2)
Population size / 60 (deck size)
Number of successes in population / 20 (how many land cards in deck)
Sample size / 6 (this changes because we still need 1 ramp card in the opener thus we have 6 cards remaining)
Number of successes in sample / 2 (we need 2 lands in the opener)
X= 0.346839017 which is 35%
X> 0.660462857 which is 66%
Combine them (Part 3)
Simple as you multiply them together
X= 14%
X> 42%
Link for how I learned how to run them together. https://youtu.be/wRdY7k_rGcA
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
I thought I explained the results pretty well in my breakdown but I will try to rephrase it.
The goal was to find out which Ramp count and Land count would be the best combination to get the opener desired of at least 1 ramp and 2 lands. Technically the best outcome would be to have 10 Ramp and 22 Lands which totals to 53%. The most common configuration of Ponza lists I have seen is 9 Ramp and 21 Lands which gives a 48% chance to have the correct opener.
The problem is as both Noob King and I stated before that BOP is literally the worst topdeck in our deck. So the percentage needed to be significantly higher in order to justify the reason to run it. We both advocate running just the 8 Ramp and 22 Land because you only drop 2% to 46% from the “common build” of running the 1 BOP.
If you believe 2% is a deal breaker then that is your call but knowing that hitting a land is better after your opener should persuade you towards the 8 ramp 22 Lands setup.
I'm seeing a lot of calculations are calculating what chance we have of finding a 'perfect' opener of exactly 1 dork 2 lands. Even if the best case scenario is only increased slightly by the presence of birds, you will have 10% more hands without a dork straight up without them so the worst case scenario is significantly more likely without birds.
Less mulligans = more wins. Birds may not make the deck 'more better' but they do make it 'less bad'.
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URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
This is also wrong. Please stop misleading people. I have stated multiple times now the percentages I gave in my breakdown were from x= being exactly and x> being at least.
I understand where you are getting your number from. You are looking at the probability of not getting at least 1 mana dork in your opener. The problem with that is quite simple.
Just because you increase your ability to get a ramp card doesn’t mean you will automatically increase your ability to also get your lands too. We need BOTH the ramp and the lands. If you have 1 Ramp and 1 land you will throw it back more times than not. Same with 1 Ramp and no land which is why I did the math as I did.
So you’re incorrect with your 10% mulligan as it doesn’t look at the whole picture.
I keep 1 land and 1 ramp often, especially if it's my 6 or I'm on the draw. 2 ramp and 1 land is also good.
Scenario 1: 1 Ramp and 1 Land after mulling down to 6.
8 Ramp & 22 Lands = 54%
9 Ramp & 21 Lands = 57%
10 Ramp & 22 Lands = 62%
So there is a slight increase in the difference from the suggested adjustment to the common build which was 2% to now 3% which still means not significant enough to me. Even the highest chance to attain the probability was still less than 10% difference.
Scenario 2: 1 Ramp and 1 Land on the draw.
8 R & 22 L = 69%
9 R & 21 L = 72%
10 R & 22 L = 77%
Literally the exact same separation from the 1st scenario (ie 3% and 8% from the suggested change)
Scenario 3: 2 Ramp and 1 Land (this should in theory be the best argument for more Ramp cards as there are more desired Ramp cards for this situation.)
8 R & 22 L = 21%
9 R & 21 L = 25%
10 R & 22 L = 30%
This is where I will rest my case. The most common build gains 1 more percent to put it at a whopping 4% difference. Even in the scenario which should give more ramp cards the best outcome and highest probability of the desire result is still less than 10%.
If it was over 10% then sure there is a valid argument to be made but the swap from 1 BOP to 1 Land is indeed negligible.
Yours is not the only post I was referring to, you were quite thorough. And I am pretty close to the mark on 10% though, you're welcome to add your more thorough analysis on the numbers.
FYI I was conmparing 2 birds 21 land with 0 birds 22 land. I don't know about you but most lists I see are 2 birds not 1 bird.
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URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
I think that's incorrect.
Let me take Standard as an example. Mono red ran 1-2 Hazoret in their main until they realized that 4 was the way to go. You want to maximize your ability to draw her and playing 1 basically means you're not really interested in ever drawing the card in any given match.
You guys seem to forget that having multiples is generally not really a problem and that you can activate the discard ability to dump additional copies in your hand (that 2 damage is not irrelevant).
I played with 2 for a while and decided that 3 was the correct number as it was the 1 card i ALWAYS wanted to draw on curve. It was single-handed, the best card to close out the game quickly.
I rarely found myself with more than 2 cards in any given match where i got to go T1 accelerant, T2 Moon/Rain (that's 4 cards played already), T3 land/threat, T4 land/hazoret - swing. That's a pretty standard setup.
I definitely see where you're coming from based on that reasoning. Since I don't have experience playing her at any capacity, that was my main reason for asking those who do play her, how they go about doing so. My initial assessment was made under the assumption that Hazoret was just another win-con among the many potential finishers that have and currently see play in the deck; nothing that made her significantly better or worse than dropping Stormbreath as a finisher. What did you end up dropping in order to play 3 copies as opposed to 1?
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
I don't play:
Bonfires
Birds
Inferno Titans
Was easy to fit her in.
I have 1 six drop (wurmcoil) which i basically don't want to see the majority of the time. I might actually cut that card entirely as a matter of fact. The only matchup it's good against is Tron. You'll never get to make good use of it against burn and if you, it's likely you were winning with anything, really.
It's good against random affinity games though. Especially if they land a champion.
I just found that her being 4 to cast, has an added ability and haste, can usually close out the game faster than titan. It costing 4 is a legitimate bonus because it allows you to keep looser hands that you simply couldn't keep with titans/bonfires.
And that's it right there. It allows you to keep your initial 7 way more often than not.
Appreciate the breakdown. I don't run Bonfires/Titans either, but I'm still all aboard the Bird train. You've really gotten me intrigued about Hazoret now; I may bite the bullet and pick up two copies to start and do some tinkering.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
If Deathrite Shaman somehow got unbanned, I can assure you i would 100% run them as well. That'd easily be one of the best cards for the deck. But alas! Birds have no power
I just wish there was something better in their slot. As far as I'm concerned, it's a necessary evil for many of you. I encourage you to keep track of all the times you top decked the bird post your opener and how much you wish it was a land instead. Just as an exercise.