I use mostly a stock list. Birds are fine for me. Encountered mana issues when took them out for some additional burn spells.. so I put them back in again.
Getting 3 mana on turn 2 is important for this deck.
Cut birds, add a land. Birds are far and away the worst cards (tied with bonfire) in the deck. Make a truly awful draw outside your opener. Can't even attack. Pff.
Cut birds, add a land. Birds are far and away the worst cards (tied with bonfire) in the deck. Make a truly awful draw outside your opener. Can't even attack. Pff.
Sarcasm? Looking at tournament results from the last two months, I've yet to find one bird-less Ponza build that's placed top 8.
Cut birds, add a land. Birds are far and away the worst cards (tied with bonfire) in the deck. Make a truly awful draw outside your opener. Can't even attack. Pff.
Sarcasm? Looking at tournament results from the last two months, I've yet to find one bird-less Ponza build that's placed top 8.
If you look at most of those lists, they aren't really ponza. Mostly monster lists.
Ponza is T2 blood moon/stone rain, T3 Acid moss, T4 Stormbreath.
What you're seeing are lists full of Huntmasters and weird one-two offs like coursers.
It's not sarcasm. I'm genuinely advocating cutting the single worst card in the deck, which is birds. Because it's awful. It doesn't add consistency, it makes your draws a hundred times worse. If you look at the previous entries on my part in this thread, you'll see that i've done nothing but advocate cutting birds. I've won 2 pptqs (of 50+ players), several modern local events etc without it (unfortunately i live in Asia so stuff doesn't get reported as much). You could never convince me to go back because you would be wrong. I've also cut the bonfires as these are also quite terrible. I'm also not a big fan of Tracker but that's but that's not because it's not good, but more because it's too slow. I've been tinkering with the idea of running The merfolk (jadelight ranger) in its place since it can actually become a threat with a payoff immediately but haven't gotten any testing in with it yet. I also advocate to cut the titan and replace it with hazorets as this closes out the game much faster and more consistently (plus doesn't get brick walled by a bridge since you can pitch cards to kill your opponent). It also costs 2 less mana and the sweet spot for the deck is 5 mana (not 6).
Best cards as win conditions that end the game faster than your opponent has time to recover:
- Chandra, Torch of Defiance
- Hazoret the fervent
- Stormbreath dragon
- Honourable mention goes to Chameleon on non-evolved GDS builds who still don't know to sb YP.
Sure, titan has won games, but frankly, not enough to warrant it's spot in the list. Additionally, i had never wanted to fetch a titan with primal command (that honour goes to Wurmcoil Engine).
I also run 3 trinispheres in the sb and that card has single handedly won me more matches than all the matches i've ever played where titan was still present.
I think a lot of people misunderstand what the deck is trying to achieve. We're not a mid-range deck trying to grind out victories.
The goal of this deck is to prevent your opponent from ever playing any significant spells while you kill them quickly.
If your version takes like 10 turns to win the game, it's not ponza.
I'm not questioning the legitimacy of Inferno or Bonfire; in fact, I wholeheartedly agree with your stance on those two as well as playing Wurmcoil & Trinisphere. However, I do question the evidence that suggests Birds are the single worst cards in the deck and make draws "a hundred times worse". I'm not sure if there's a single competitive Modern deck that can claim it runs zero cards which aren't great top-decks. When BoP functions as intended, we get mana fixing and ramp that allows for more consistent T2 Moons/LD, T3 Mosses, T4 Stormbreaths...I'm not sure what you're getting at with the turn 10 win comment.
While it's true that a handful of lists, which have posted favorable tourney results, include cute tech like Emperion/Madcap or Eldritch Evo + random critters with EtB effects, the majority adhere to the Ponza game plan. I'm not saying a bird-less build is bat ***** crazy or anything, but empirical data from numerous tournament results is always more reliable than anecdotal evidence. Yes, you've advocated for cutting BoP on numerous occasions, but here we are today and the decks putting up results are still running them in some capacity or another. It's foolish to claim people are wrong for playing BoP when the data overwhelmingly suggests otherwise.
I'm not questioning the legitimacy of Inferno or Bonfire; in fact, I wholeheartedly agree with your stance on those two as well as playing Wurmcoil & Trinisphere. However, I do question the evidence that suggests Birds are the single worst cards in the deck and make draws "a hundred times worse". I'm not sure if there's a single competitive Modern deck that can claim it runs zero cards which aren't great top-decks. When BoP functions as intended, we get mana fixing and ramp that allows for more consistent T2 Moons/LD, T3 Mosses, T4 Stormbreaths...I'm not sure what you're getting at with the turn 10 win comment.
While it's true that a handful of lists, which have posted favorable tourney results, include cute tech like Emperion/Madcap or Eldritch Evo + random critters with EtB effects, the majority adhere to the Ponza game plan. I'm not saying a bird-less build is bat ***** crazy or anything, but empirical data from numerous tournament results is always more reliable than anecdotal evidence. Yes, you've advocated for cutting BoP on numerous occasions, but here we are today and the decks putting up results are still running them in some capacity or another. It's foolish to claim people are wrong for playing BoP when the data overwhelmingly suggests otherwise.
Death shadow used to run a lot of bad cards that were considered sacred cows and after they didn't...the deck was insane.
What I'm saying is that simply because that's how it's always been done doesn't mean it can't be better.
Birds is the worst card in the deck because you only want to see it in your opener or on the draw but never in any other point in the game as it's actually worse than a land.
Again, the results have not been put up by traditional ponza lists but closer to the monster versions.
I'm not questioning the legitimacy of Inferno or Bonfire; in fact, I wholeheartedly agree with your stance on those two as well as playing Wurmcoil & Trinisphere. However, I do question the evidence that suggests Birds are the single worst cards in the deck and make draws "a hundred times worse". I'm not sure if there's a single competitive Modern deck that can claim it runs zero cards which aren't great top-decks. When BoP functions as intended, we get mana fixing and ramp that allows for more consistent T2 Moons/LD, T3 Mosses, T4 Stormbreaths...I'm not sure what you're getting at with the turn 10 win comment.
While it's true that a handful of lists, which have posted favorable tourney results, include cute tech like Emperion/Madcap or Eldritch Evo + random critters with EtB effects, the majority adhere to the Ponza game plan. I'm not saying a bird-less build is bat ***** crazy or anything, but empirical data from numerous tournament results is always more reliable than anecdotal evidence. Yes, you've advocated for cutting BoP on numerous occasions, but here we are today and the decks putting up results are still running them in some capacity or another. It's foolish to claim people are wrong for playing BoP when the data overwhelmingly suggests otherwise.
Death shadow used to run a lot of bad cards that were considered sacred cows and after they didn't...the deck was insane.
What I'm saying is that simply because that's how it's always been done doesn't mean it can't be better.
Birds is the worst card in the deck because you only want to see it in your opener or on the draw but never in any other point in the game as it's actually worse than a land.
Again, the results have not been put up by traditional ponza lists but closer to the monster versions.
I do think noob king is correct about some things and wrong about others. The overall approach of adjusting what might be considered the stock list is a good idea and some card discussed are worth removing. Almost all of this stuff presented will be anecdotal but we should here each other out as to why they believe what they believe.
With all that said I have always held Bonfire as a terrible card outside of standard as it is super inconsistent. If you want to run a one sided sweeper then you should run Mizzium Mortars instead as it at least can be spot removal in a pinch.
As for BOP, true as it maybe that there isn’t any empirical evidence to suggest it is a bad card, what noob king is saying is 100% true. It is hot garbage outside of the opener and absolutely the worst topdeck in the deck. Now removal of a card that provides consistency will decrease probability slightly of the turn 2 play but could in fact win more games due to better topdecks.
As for Inferno Titan this is probably the most meta dependable card. If you are running against go wide strategies (Merfolk, Humans, Tokens, Elves etc.) then Inferno Titan is a great card. Where I disagree with Noob King is the reasoning behind running their preferred choice being Wurmcoil. I run one of each currently and have needed each at different times. The problem lies with Noob King’s reasoning that 6 CMC is not where you want to be yet runs Wurmcoil. I believe 1 of each is where you want to be as Inferno Titan is good against go wide and Wurmcoil is good against go tall.
Lastly the concept proposed by Noob King is hopeful yet wrong. Sure do we want T2 moon or rain into T3 Moss into T4 Stormbreath? Of course we do but the deck can’t pull that off consistently. Being against Tracker because he is slow is wrong thinking. Tracker by most accounts in here is probably the 2nd best creature behind Stormbreath due to being able to turn topdeck lands into more gas. If my opener doesn’t have a T2 moon or rain but has a tracker I am keeping that hand. I’m not mulling down to possibly get the aforementioned 2 as the deck mulligans terribly.
We are not consistently a fast deck. We are a tempo deck thus the “monster build” with Huntmaster and Tracker are needed to stabilize in the event the opponent is able to still play things or we don’t have the desired opener.
Courser is ok as a 1 of but not core to the deck thus is not needed. Tracker is much better in the 3 drop slot. Tracker is true card draw where as Courser is kinda sudo card draw. If playing against a heavy burn meta then you have more justification for running it.
Best T2 play is as follows:
1st. Moon or Chandra depending on the scenario (If playing against mono color deck then Chandra otherwise Moon)
2nd. Rain or Tracker depending on the scenario (If on the play and opponent leads on fetch and doesn’t crack it then play Tracker instead)
Lastly the concept proposed by Noob King is hopeful yet wrong. Sure do we want T2 moon or rain into T3 Moss into T4 Stormbreath? Of course we do but the deck can’t pull that off consistently. Being against Tracker because he is slow is wrong thinking. Tracker by most accounts in here is probably the 2nd best creature behind Stormbreath due to being able to turn topdeck lands into more gas. If my opener doesn’t have a T2 moon or rain but has a tracker I am keeping that hand. I’m not mulling down to possibly get the aforementioned 2 as the deck mulligans terribly.
I was not sure yet about tracker, so started out at 2. But proved to be good, so now I'm up to 3 in the main. In the games where she does not die right away, the card advantage from clues are amazing. And in games where removal goes into her.. there's less removal for my stormbreath and titans.
It's not all upsides of course.. there are a few games where I would have won if drawn haste dragon instead of a tracker. My build used to have 3 dragon - have removed 1 dragon to have the third tracker.
As for Titan, I still have 2 in the deck. His etb trigger and attack 3 damage helps get rid of Stinkweed Imps.
@NoobKing, until you back up your rhetoric regarding birds with figures (such as the decrease in % opening hands without a mana dork), i will not be paying too much heed to what you say.
Almost every hand without a t1 mana dork or sprawl is a mulligan, so to decrease the number of t1 plays will logically increase the amount of mulligans you make, which decreases consistency. Arbor elf and utopia sprawl are very often bad topdecks as well, should we therefore run fewer of those? Do you see where the nonsense logic goes without some analysis?
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks
------------ URW Jeskai Control GUWRB Amulet Titan GR Ponza
@NoobKing, until you back up your rhetoric regarding birds with figures (such as the decrease in % opening hands without a mana dork), i will not be paying too much heed to what you say.
Almost every hand without a t1 mana dork or sprawl is a mulligan, so to decrease the number of t1 plays will logically increase the amount of mulligans you make, which decreases consistency. Arbor elf and utopia sprawl are very often bad topdecks as well, should we therefore run fewer of those? Do you see where the nonsense logic goes without some analysis?
Yes, both those cards are bad to horrible top decks and if i didnt need to run them, i wouldn't. The difference between birds and elf is that at least, the elf can attack (it can also produce twice as much mana as a birds).
I'm not in love with tracker either as i find it too durdly. I run the single wurmcoil for one matchup : tron. Its your best creature against them.
Providing empirical data would require thousands of games and keep track. Or you could just used frank kastran's mathematics to determine. What i can tell you u is that since I've started playing this deck last year, my changes have only increased my win rate. Sure, some of that could be attributed to an increase in skill. But I've not had an issue with consistency at all (luck?) since cutting the birds. When i used to play them, i had a lot of frustrations with them. Ending up cutting them and increasing the land count by one made a huge difference.
And those saying tracker and hazoret are a nonbo, u don't have to draw cards you know? And the cards you do draw can be pitched to her. So id say they synergize.
Bonfire is unplayable in this version of ponza. Like i explained earlier, the deck wants to end the game as quickly as possible. Casting bonfire for 3 is about the average. What does that really do for the game plan? Id rather play anger since i don't consider that 3 dmg to face all that relevant.
@NoobKing, until you back up your rhetoric regarding birds with figures (such as the decrease in % opening hands without a mana dork), i will not be paying too much heed to what you say.
Almost every hand without a t1 mana dork or sprawl is a mulligan, so to decrease the number of t1 plays will logically increase the amount of mulligans you make, which decreases consistency. Arbor elf and utopia sprawl are very often bad topdecks as well, should we therefore run fewer of those? Do you see where the nonsense logic goes without some analysis?
Yes, both those cards are bad to horrible top decks and if i didnt need to run them, i wouldn't. The difference between birds and elf is that at least, the elf can attack (it can also produce twice as much mana as a birds).
I'm not in love with tracker either as i find it too durdly. I run the single wurmcoil for one matchup : tron. Its your best creature against them.
Providing empirical data would require thousands of games and keep track. Or you could just used frank kastran's mathematics to determine. What i can tell you u is that since I've started playing this deck last year, my changes have only increased my win rate. Sure, some of that could be attributed to an increase in skill. But I've not had an issue with consistency at all (luck?) since cutting the birds. When i used to play them, i had a lot of frustrations with them. Ending up cutting them and increasing the land count by one made a huge difference.
And those saying tracker and hazoret are a nonbo, u don't have to draw cards you know? And the cards you do draw can be pitched to her. So id say they synergize.
Bonfire is unplayable in this version of ponza. Like i explained earlier, the deck wants to end the game as quickly as possible. Casting bonfire for 3 is about the average. What does that really do for the game plan? Id rather play anger since i don't consider that 3 dmg to face all that relevant.
I still run tusks because of the inherent bad g1. But if something better came in at the five drop slot,id switch it.
I run the foundry strictly for stony silence for gr tron and affinity. Those are the two matchups ive struggled the most vs.
Noob king you are literally switching Huntmaster for Lightning Bolts otherwise you would also have pretty close to a “monster build” list. You aren’t that far off from other lists and I can promise you that 2 Lightning Bolts vs 2 Huntmasters doesn’t make you so much faster than the rest of us.
@NoobKing, until you back up your rhetoric regarding birds with figures (such as the decrease in % opening hands without a mana dork), i will not be paying too much heed to what you say.
Almost every hand without a t1 mana dork or sprawl is a mulligan, so to decrease the number of t1 plays will logically increase the amount of mulligans you make, which decreases consistency. Arbor elf and utopia sprawl are very often bad topdecks as well, should we therefore run fewer of those? Do you see where the nonsense logic goes without some analysis?
Yes, both those cards are bad to horrible top decks and if i didnt need to run them, i wouldn't. The difference between birds and elf is that at least, the elf can attack (it can also produce twice as much mana as a birds).
I'm not in love with tracker either as i find it too durdly. I run the single wurmcoil for one matchup : tron. Its your best creature against them.
Providing empirical data would require thousands of games and keep track. Or you could just used frank kastran's mathematics to determine. What i can tell you u is that since I've started playing this deck last year, my changes have only increased my win rate. Sure, some of that could be attributed to an increase in skill. But I've not had an issue with consistency at all (luck?) since cutting the birds. When i used to play them, i had a lot of frustrations with them. Ending up cutting them and increasing the land count by one made a huge difference.
And those saying tracker and hazoret are a nonbo, u don't have to draw cards you know? And the cards you do draw can be pitched to her. So id say they synergize.
Bonfire is unplayable in this version of ponza. Like i explained earlier, the deck wants to end the game as quickly as possible. Casting bonfire for 3 is about the average. What does that really do for the game plan? Id rather play anger since i don't consider that 3 dmg to face all that relevant.
I still run tusks because of the inherent bad g1. But if something better came in at the five drop slot,id switch it.
I run the foundry strictly for stony silence for gr tron and affinity. Those are the two matchups ive struggled the most vs.
Noob king you are literally switching Huntmaster for Lightning Bolts otherwise you would also have pretty close to a “monster build” list. You aren’t that far off from other lists and I can promise you that 2 Lightning Bolts vs 2 Huntmasters doesn’t make you so much faster than the rest of us.
Monster lists play courser and the list that was posted previously? Didn't even run stone rains main (or acid-moss). That's not a ponza list. All ponza lists are like this:
4 moons, 4 stone rains, 3-4 acid moss, 4 arbor elf, 4 utopia sprawls. The rest is a mix and match.
I used to run abrade instead of bolt BECAUSE of affinity. But it was mediocre outside of it so i just decided to switch to bolt. Huntmaster is ok, but having 3 chandras and 3 hazoret (hazoret is way better at ending the game quickly. Huntmaster is way too grindy and even encourages you to stop casting spells), i wouldn't want to over load my 4 slot.
The overall approach of adjusting what might be considered the stock list is a good idea and some card discussed are worth removing. Almost all of this stuff presented will be anecdotal but we should here each other out as to why they believe what they believe.
With all that said I have always held Bonfire as a terrible card outside of standard as it is super inconsistent. If you want to run a one sided sweeper then you should run Mizzium Mortars instead as it at least can be spot removal in a pinch.
As for BOP, true as it maybe that there isn’t any empirical evidence to suggest it is a bad card, what noob king is saying is 100% true. It is hot garbage outside of the opener and absolutely the worst topdeck in the deck. Now removal of a card that provides consistency will decrease probability slightly of the turn 2 play but could in fact win more games due to better topdecks.
As for Inferno Titan this is probably the most meta dependable card. If you are running against go wide strategies (Merfolk, Humans, Tokens, Elves etc.) then Inferno Titan is a great card. Where I disagree with Noob King is the reasoning behind running their preferred choice being Wurmcoil. I run one of each currently and have needed each at different times. The problem lies with Noob King’s reasoning that 6 CMC is not where you want to be yet runs Wurmcoil. I believe 1 of each is where you want to be as Inferno Titan is good against go wide and Wurmcoil is good against go tall.
Running a stock Ponza list and being able to tinker with the flex spots in order to adjust to one's meta is a hallmark of the archetype. I don't think there's anyone who's bending over backwards trying to justify running Bonfires and/or more than two Infernos. The debates can be found by backtracking to like August/September of the Primer. Like you stated, Inferno is meta-dependent and can beat face in the right environment. The debate over Bonfire used to be a never ending story, but that talk has died down over the last few months and the most recent tournament lists appear to be in agreement that Bonfire isn't all it's cracked up to be. Going back through two months of data, the majority of top 8 lists running Bonfire main happen to be the Emperion/Madcap variants.
I absolutely agree that being open-minded in regards to potential changes which improve the deck is essential to constructive discussions and testing new ideas. However, making a post just to bash BoP, with no evidence to support the claim, is counterintuitive in this endeavor. Until there's a list which cuts BoP and starts putting up results from which we can draw data from, two copiers of Birds are considered staples as far as I'm concerned. Bad top-decks may often occur in virtually every other deck in the format; Giving up that ramp and mana fixing in order to avoid potential bad draws is baffling to me. Especially when we now have access to more card draw than ever before thanks to Chandra ToD & Tracker. I think discussions in regards to relatively new or un-proven additions, such as Hazoret, are far more constructive than baseless arguments advocating for the removal of tried and true commodities, such as BoP.
With that being said, who's currently playing with Hazoret and what are some pros/cons that you've noticed during testing? I've found the card to be intriguing, but based on currently available data, it seems like something I can hold off on playing around with until the card rotates from Standard.
Running 4 copies of mana dork vs running 6 is roughly a 7% difference to have in your opening 7. So if you have only 4 Arbor Elfs, then it is 33% chance to have in the opening 7. With 4 Arbor Elfs and 2 Birds, then it is around 40%
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
Running 4 copies of mana dork vs running 6 is roughly a 7% difference to have in your opening 7. So if you have only 4 Arbor Elfs, then it is 33% chance to have in the opening 7. With 4 Arbor Elfs and 2 Birds, then it is around 40%
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
Thanks for the link.
Your figures are for opening hands with EXACTLY one dork.
I ran the numbers and looked at how many hands have ZERO dorks/sprawls... i.e. mulligans. With 8 one mana accelerants in a 60 card deck, there is about a 35% chance to draw a hand with no accelerant. This figure drops to 25% when 10 one mana accelerants are in a 60 card deck.
On the Hazoret note; don't own a copy but my Ponza partner at my LGS swears by her. I see the value, she's a house. As soon as I get one I will run her, but only 1 copy I feel. You would prefer to draw her as you approach hellbent, and she's legendary to boot. I can see some logic behind 2 copies, but feel 3 is too many.
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks
------------ URW Jeskai Control GUWRB Amulet Titan GR Ponza
Noob king you are literally switching Huntmaster for Lightning Bolts otherwise you would also have pretty close to a “monster build” list. You aren’t that far off from other lists and I can promise you that 2 Lightning Bolts vs 2 Huntmasters doesn’t make you so much faster than the rest of us.[/quote]
Monster lists play courser and the list that was posted previously? Didn't even run stone rains main (or acid-moss). That's not a ponza list. All ponza lists are like this:
4 moons, 4 stone rains, 3-4 acid moss, 4 arbor elf, 4 utopia sprawls. The rest is a mix and match.
I used to run abrade instead of bolt BECAUSE of affinity. But it was mediocre outside of it so i just decided to switch to bolt. Huntmaster is ok, but having 3 chandras and 3 hazoret (hazoret is way better at ending the game quickly. Huntmaster is way too grindy and even encourages you to stop casting spells), i wouldn't want to over load my 4 slot.
[/quote]
You somewhat proved my point. Monster lists don’t necessarily run Courser, and that recent list isn’t Ponza as the Stone Rains where in the board with no copies of Acid Moss. It was similar to Ponza but not.
My list is pretty close to yours that is why I can definitely say your deck / version is not drastically faster than other lists.
My list vs your list:
+2 Huntmaster -2 Bolt
+1 Stormbreath -1 Thragtusk
+1 Inferno -1 Hazoret
+1 Garruk -1 Chandra
Hazoret is great at ending the game but is not what you are playing on T2 maybe a play on T3. If you play Hazoret on T2 more times than not it can’t attack on T3 typically where as Huntmaster would be able to attack if you played it instead on T2.
My list will change to being 3 Chandra and no Garruk once I can pick up another copy, but at that point our list will be almost exactly the same. So I can say without a doubt your version is not as fast as you might think it is.
I will say I have considered playing 1 Courser over playing the 1 Birds and have been testing it recently as there are 3 burn decks in my local meta right now, but I don’t advocate doing this if I was to go to a tournament. I would just run the 22 land no bird.
Getting 3 mana on turn 2 is important for this deck.
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Sarcasm? Looking at tournament results from the last two months, I've yet to find one bird-less Ponza build that's placed top 8.
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If you look at most of those lists, they aren't really ponza. Mostly monster lists.
Ponza is T2 blood moon/stone rain, T3 Acid moss, T4 Stormbreath.
What you're seeing are lists full of Huntmasters and weird one-two offs like coursers.
It's not sarcasm. I'm genuinely advocating cutting the single worst card in the deck, which is birds. Because it's awful. It doesn't add consistency, it makes your draws a hundred times worse. If you look at the previous entries on my part in this thread, you'll see that i've done nothing but advocate cutting birds. I've won 2 pptqs (of 50+ players), several modern local events etc without it (unfortunately i live in Asia so stuff doesn't get reported as much). You could never convince me to go back because you would be wrong. I've also cut the bonfires as these are also quite terrible. I'm also not a big fan of Tracker but that's but that's not because it's not good, but more because it's too slow. I've been tinkering with the idea of running The merfolk (jadelight ranger) in its place since it can actually become a threat with a payoff immediately but haven't gotten any testing in with it yet. I also advocate to cut the titan and replace it with hazorets as this closes out the game much faster and more consistently (plus doesn't get brick walled by a bridge since you can pitch cards to kill your opponent). It also costs 2 less mana and the sweet spot for the deck is 5 mana (not 6).
Best cards as win conditions that end the game faster than your opponent has time to recover:
- Chandra, Torch of Defiance
- Hazoret the fervent
- Stormbreath dragon
- Honourable mention goes to Chameleon on non-evolved GDS builds who still don't know to sb YP.
Sure, titan has won games, but frankly, not enough to warrant it's spot in the list. Additionally, i had never wanted to fetch a titan with primal command (that honour goes to Wurmcoil Engine).
I also run 3 trinispheres in the sb and that card has single handedly won me more matches than all the matches i've ever played where titan was still present.
I think a lot of people misunderstand what the deck is trying to achieve. We're not a mid-range deck trying to grind out victories.
The goal of this deck is to prevent your opponent from ever playing any significant spells while you kill them quickly.
If your version takes like 10 turns to win the game, it's not ponza.
While it's true that a handful of lists, which have posted favorable tourney results, include cute tech like Emperion/Madcap or Eldritch Evo + random critters with EtB effects, the majority adhere to the Ponza game plan. I'm not saying a bird-less build is bat ***** crazy or anything, but empirical data from numerous tournament results is always more reliable than anecdotal evidence. Yes, you've advocated for cutting BoP on numerous occasions, but here we are today and the decks putting up results are still running them in some capacity or another. It's foolish to claim people are wrong for playing BoP when the data overwhelmingly suggests otherwise.
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
Death shadow used to run a lot of bad cards that were considered sacred cows and after they didn't...the deck was insane.
What I'm saying is that simply because that's how it's always been done doesn't mean it can't be better.
Birds is the worst card in the deck because you only want to see it in your opener or on the draw but never in any other point in the game as it's actually worse than a land.
Again, the results have not been put up by traditional ponza lists but closer to the monster versions.
What is the list you use?
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
With all that said I have always held Bonfire as a terrible card outside of standard as it is super inconsistent. If you want to run a one sided sweeper then you should run Mizzium Mortars instead as it at least can be spot removal in a pinch.
As for BOP, true as it maybe that there isn’t any empirical evidence to suggest it is a bad card, what noob king is saying is 100% true. It is hot garbage outside of the opener and absolutely the worst topdeck in the deck. Now removal of a card that provides consistency will decrease probability slightly of the turn 2 play but could in fact win more games due to better topdecks.
As for Inferno Titan this is probably the most meta dependable card. If you are running against go wide strategies (Merfolk, Humans, Tokens, Elves etc.) then Inferno Titan is a great card. Where I disagree with Noob King is the reasoning behind running their preferred choice being Wurmcoil. I run one of each currently and have needed each at different times. The problem lies with Noob King’s reasoning that 6 CMC is not where you want to be yet runs Wurmcoil. I believe 1 of each is where you want to be as Inferno Titan is good against go wide and Wurmcoil is good against go tall.
Lastly the concept proposed by Noob King is hopeful yet wrong. Sure do we want T2 moon or rain into T3 Moss into T4 Stormbreath? Of course we do but the deck can’t pull that off consistently. Being against Tracker because he is slow is wrong thinking. Tracker by most accounts in here is probably the 2nd best creature behind Stormbreath due to being able to turn topdeck lands into more gas. If my opener doesn’t have a T2 moon or rain but has a tracker I am keeping that hand. I’m not mulling down to possibly get the aforementioned 2 as the deck mulligans terribly.
We are not consistently a fast deck. We are a tempo deck thus the “monster build” with Huntmaster and Tracker are needed to stabilize in the event the opponent is able to still play things or we don’t have the desired opener.
Is it wrong to just like Courser of Kruphix over Tireless Tracker? I just hate Tracker, but maybe I am using him incorrectly.
Also want to see The n00b king's latest build.
Tempo
Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison
Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
Courser is ok as a 1 of but not core to the deck thus is not needed. Tracker is much better in the 3 drop slot. Tracker is true card draw where as Courser is kinda sudo card draw. If playing against a heavy burn meta then you have more justification for running it.
Best T2 play is as follows:
1st. Moon or Chandra depending on the scenario (If playing against mono color deck then Chandra otherwise Moon)
2nd. Rain or Tracker depending on the scenario (If on the play and opponent leads on fetch and doesn’t crack it then play Tracker instead)
I was not sure yet about tracker, so started out at 2. But proved to be good, so now I'm up to 3 in the main. In the games where she does not die right away, the card advantage from clues are amazing. And in games where removal goes into her.. there's less removal for my stormbreath and titans.
It's not all upsides of course.. there are a few games where I would have won if drawn haste dragon instead of a tracker. My build used to have 3 dragon - have removed 1 dragon to have the third tracker.
As for Titan, I still have 2 in the deck. His etb trigger and attack 3 damage helps get rid of Stinkweed Imps.
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Almost every hand without a t1 mana dork or sprawl is a mulligan, so to decrease the number of t1 plays will logically increase the amount of mulligans you make, which decreases consistency. Arbor elf and utopia sprawl are very often bad topdecks as well, should we therefore run fewer of those? Do you see where the nonsense logic goes without some analysis?
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URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
Yes, both those cards are bad to horrible top decks and if i didnt need to run them, i wouldn't. The difference between birds and elf is that at least, the elf can attack (it can also produce twice as much mana as a birds).
I'm not in love with tracker either as i find it too durdly. I run the single wurmcoil for one matchup : tron. Its your best creature against them.
Providing empirical data would require thousands of games and keep track. Or you could just used frank kastran's mathematics to determine. What i can tell you u is that since I've started playing this deck last year, my changes have only increased my win rate. Sure, some of that could be attributed to an increase in skill. But I've not had an issue with consistency at all (luck?) since cutting the birds. When i used to play them, i had a lot of frustrations with them. Ending up cutting them and increasing the land count by one made a huge difference.
And those saying tracker and hazoret are a nonbo, u don't have to draw cards you know? And the cards you do draw can be pitched to her. So id say they synergize.
Bonfire is unplayable in this version of ponza. Like i explained earlier, the deck wants to end the game as quickly as possible. Casting bonfire for 3 is about the average. What does that really do for the game plan? Id rather play anger since i don't consider that 3 dmg to face all that relevant.
My list looks like this :
4 arbor elf
2 lightning bolt
3 chandra, torch of defiance
3 tireless tracker
3 hazoret, the fervent
2 stormbreath dragon
2 thragtusk
1 wurmoil engine
2 primal command
4 blood moon
4 stone rain
3 mwuvoli's acid-moss
4 windswept heath
4 wooded foothills
1 mountain
2 stomping ground
1 sacred foundry
11 forest
I still run tusks because of the inherent bad g1. But if something better came in at the five drop slot,id switch it.
I run the foundry strictly for stony silence for gr tron and affinity. Those are the two matchups ive struggled the most vs.
Noob king you are literally switching Huntmaster for Lightning Bolts otherwise you would also have pretty close to a “monster build” list. You aren’t that far off from other lists and I can promise you that 2 Lightning Bolts vs 2 Huntmasters doesn’t make you so much faster than the rest of us.
Monster lists play courser and the list that was posted previously? Didn't even run stone rains main (or acid-moss). That's not a ponza list. All ponza lists are like this:
4 moons, 4 stone rains, 3-4 acid moss, 4 arbor elf, 4 utopia sprawls. The rest is a mix and match.
I used to run abrade instead of bolt BECAUSE of affinity. But it was mediocre outside of it so i just decided to switch to bolt. Huntmaster is ok, but having 3 chandras and 3 hazoret (hazoret is way better at ending the game quickly. Huntmaster is way too grindy and even encourages you to stop casting spells), i wouldn't want to over load my 4 slot.
Running a stock Ponza list and being able to tinker with the flex spots in order to adjust to one's meta is a hallmark of the archetype. I don't think there's anyone who's bending over backwards trying to justify running Bonfires and/or more than two Infernos. The debates can be found by backtracking to like August/September of the Primer. Like you stated, Inferno is meta-dependent and can beat face in the right environment. The debate over Bonfire used to be a never ending story, but that talk has died down over the last few months and the most recent tournament lists appear to be in agreement that Bonfire isn't all it's cracked up to be. Going back through two months of data, the majority of top 8 lists running Bonfire main happen to be the Emperion/Madcap variants.
I absolutely agree that being open-minded in regards to potential changes which improve the deck is essential to constructive discussions and testing new ideas. However, making a post just to bash BoP, with no evidence to support the claim, is counterintuitive in this endeavor. Until there's a list which cuts BoP and starts putting up results from which we can draw data from, two copiers of Birds are considered staples as far as I'm concerned. Bad top-decks may often occur in virtually every other deck in the format; Giving up that ramp and mana fixing in order to avoid potential bad draws is baffling to me. Especially when we now have access to more card draw than ever before thanks to Chandra ToD & Tracker. I think discussions in regards to relatively new or un-proven additions, such as Hazoret, are far more constructive than baseless arguments advocating for the removal of tried and true commodities, such as BoP.
With that being said, who's currently playing with Hazoret and what are some pros/cons that you've noticed during testing? I've found the card to be intriguing, but based on currently available data, it seems like something I can hold off on playing around with until the card rotates from Standard.
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Source:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
Note: the amount of copies increases exponentially, or in other words, you get diminishing returns when you increase more copies after a certain number. The jump from 4 copies to 6 copies is much bigger than 6 to 8.
4 copies: 0.33628021 (~34% chance)
6 copies: 0.401243432 (~40% chance)
8 copies: 0.421712174 (~42% chance)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 6 copies of mana Dork: 0.415303175 (~41.5%)
Turn 2 probability of drawing 1 of 4 mana dorks: 0.362566264 (~36%)
So the question is, do you want a mana dork in your starting hand in 3 of 10 games, or 4 out of 10 games? Is running 2 Birds worth the extra game you get it in your starting hand? There is a big difference, though, from Birds and Arbor Elf, so its all something you need to weigh
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Thanks for the link.
Your figures are for opening hands with EXACTLY one dork.
I ran the numbers and looked at how many hands have ZERO dorks/sprawls... i.e. mulligans. With 8 one mana accelerants in a 60 card deck, there is about a 35% chance to draw a hand with no accelerant. This figure drops to 25% when 10 one mana accelerants are in a 60 card deck.
That's enough to keep me on birds.
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URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
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URW Jeskai Control
GUWRB Amulet Titan
GR Ponza
Monster lists play courser and the list that was posted previously? Didn't even run stone rains main (or acid-moss). That's not a ponza list. All ponza lists are like this:
4 moons, 4 stone rains, 3-4 acid moss, 4 arbor elf, 4 utopia sprawls. The rest is a mix and match.
I used to run abrade instead of bolt BECAUSE of affinity. But it was mediocre outside of it so i just decided to switch to bolt. Huntmaster is ok, but having 3 chandras and 3 hazoret (hazoret is way better at ending the game quickly. Huntmaster is way too grindy and even encourages you to stop casting spells), i wouldn't want to over load my 4 slot.
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You somewhat proved my point. Monster lists don’t necessarily run Courser, and that recent list isn’t Ponza as the Stone Rains where in the board with no copies of Acid Moss. It was similar to Ponza but not.
My list is pretty close to yours that is why I can definitely say your deck / version is not drastically faster than other lists.
My list vs your list:
+2 Huntmaster -2 Bolt
+1 Stormbreath -1 Thragtusk
+1 Inferno -1 Hazoret
+1 Garruk -1 Chandra
Hazoret is great at ending the game but is not what you are playing on T2 maybe a play on T3. If you play Hazoret on T2 more times than not it can’t attack on T3 typically where as Huntmaster would be able to attack if you played it instead on T2.
My list will change to being 3 Chandra and no Garruk once I can pick up another copy, but at that point our list will be almost exactly the same. So I can say without a doubt your version is not as fast as you might think it is.
I will say I have considered playing 1 Courser over playing the 1 Birds and have been testing it recently as there are 3 burn decks in my local meta right now, but I don’t advocate doing this if I was to go to a tournament. I would just run the 22 land no bird.