Interesting friend. You did factor in all my "distractions" lol. There is a lot of "random" lists in those replays.. I would suggest since you took this much time to analyze this I will tighten up the ship. Take the next 500 matches from this date on...I'll show ya 70% win rate easy. And remember friendly games v competitive is a hell of a difference. =) very very interesting tho dudesweat.
Here is my graph on the powerlevel of the different draw spells based on a matlab simulation I did:
If you look at this graph you can see a trend which I have described many times before:
Epiphany for cmc X is roughly as good as a straight draw spell for X-1.
Epiphany for cmc 3 is roughly as good as Anticipate (cmc 3-1 = 2). For same performance Pull needs to be cmc 4.
Epiphany for cmc 4 is roughly as good as Thirst(cmc 4-1 = 3). Pull needs to be cmc 5.
This does not even take into account the second blue required. Having a spell that offers Anticipate/Thirst early game for a 1 mana tax is okay, casting an Epiphany early is not great but also not horrible. Pull on the other hand requires 2 additional mana (compared to Anticipate/Thirst) and an additional blue, which makes it significantly worse for cmc <= 5. (Note that the graph does not take UU into account so in reality you would have to shift the red line more to the right, it basically thinks of Pull as a U1X spell) On the other hand for very high cmc Pull clearly offers more bang for your buck, but the question is do you need that or is it just win more?
My conclusion is Pull is too bad early/midgame and just win more late. The second blue makes the spell harder to cast at all points. I'd rather have a Gifts/Epiphany in my deck.
I think the most important/interesting stats are Deaths shadow and Bant Eldrazi match ups. Firstly these match ups are much more common on paper than online, (at least in my area) so I want to be ready for them. Secondly it is the post board numbers that are much worse than preboarded. Can we develop a counterboard stragey to thier sideboarding? what are they doing that makes it so much harder for us?
Zoo and Merfolk are essentially unwinnable so no real point trying to fix those.
Tron and Scapeshift are simpilarly difficult, we can sideboard to get close to 50-50 and that is about it.
I just read the FAQ you made about this deck, but I noticed you did not mention Newlamog or the new Emrakul. I know that shok was messing with them a few months ago and I'm interested in that testing. I currently have mtggoldfish's trading post tron deck and am one trip to the store away from a more normal deck with Ugin and some O Stones and the creatures like wurmcoil and such.
My FAQ was written before these cards existed. I played with Ulamog and Kozilek and liked them both before Eye of Ugin was banned. Their powerlevel is decent but you lose synergy from Academy Ruins, Thirst, Treasure Mage and they are more expensive than other threats. Ulamog is very playable, Kozilek was a nice fun of with Eye but probably not great without it. New Emrakul I cannot judge, the effect seems very mediocre.
I can't seem to search this thread regarding this so I'm sorry if this has been discussed already. Why is River of Tears more preferred than Drowned Catacombs?
We usually need the Mana "Right now", and the deck fails on a lot of the fast land checks, so we go with something that doesn't ever cipt and doesn't get screwed by Taxes.
Anyone who's wondering about 'an insane winrate' for any given matchup. The answer is usually 'Run more Chalices'. This cards impact on fair and unfair decks can't be easily understood without a) playing against them b) watching you opponent 'do nothing' for 3 turns before the mindslaver.
Are there any thoughts on adding Isochron Scepter as a 1-2x? Seems like a powerful way to use the excess mana created from Tron, while easing some of the mana annoyances, and potentially locking certain decks out of the game. In testing I imprinted a Hurkyl's Recall on T2 and my Affinity opponent conceded. Similar plays with Remand, Mana Leak, Anticipate, Spatial Contortion (or Fatal Push if you are a U/B madman) can make it almost impossible for your opponent to gain headway. Obvious downside is Stony, but Stony is generally massively overrated against U Tron.
With no way to Tutor Ugin, why even play it as a 1 of. Am I missing something? Are you just hoping to draw it?
I'm slowly beginning to build this deck because I love the concept. All while still keeping it on the budget side. So if I can get away without Ugin, that would be swell.
Isochron Scepter is bad. If you resolve 1 Hurkyl vs Affinity you are winning. Isochron is so slow... We don't even have good spells for isochron.
Ugin just wins vs most decks and is crazy strong. Come into play, -3/-4/-5 to clear the board and then plus once or twice and then minus again.... crazy crazy strong.
Isochron Scepter is bad. If you resolve 1 Hurkyl vs Affinity you are winning. Isochron is so slow... We don't even have good spells for isochron.
Ugin just wins vs most decks and is crazy strong. Come into play, -3/-4/-5 to clear the board and then plus once or twice and then minus again.... crazy crazy strong.
I 100% agree Ugin is amazing. My question is, is running 1 actually worth it since there's no tutoring for it?
Isochron Scepter is bad. If you resolve 1 Hurkyl vs Affinity you are winning. Isochron is so slow... We don't even have good spells for isochron.
Ugin just wins vs most decks and is crazy strong. Come into play, -3/-4/-5 to clear the board and then plus once or twice and then minus again.... crazy crazy strong.
I 100% agree Ugin is amazing. My question is, is running 1 actually worth it since there's no tutoring for it?
Yes. 100% You could play a second in the side but it would be dead in your hand often. All our other win cons we can pitch to thirst and being back later with ruins if needed. But ugin can't be recurred unless you play haven of the spirit dragon which well, don't play.
To testify this: shoktroopa, Stubborn as he is has had an ugin in his lists since he started using it, consistently.
I've started to play test various versions of this deck and can't believe how much fun it is. I like that I usually feel most punished for not knowing my opponents strategy more than not drawing into things.
Early builds seemed to use Trading Post, but I don't see that in any modern builds. Question is, even if it isn't optimal was it bad? As a budget version while I build to other things is it acceptable or not even worth including?
Thoughts on a 1 of [[scarecrone]]? Pitchable to thirst, can chump block, can be sacrificed to draw a card, or reanimate our artifact creatures turn 3 and onward. Not sure if you would wanna academy ruins him to the top of the deck but the option is there.
Youtube Channel
My stream:
www.twitch.tv/pierakor
My Disco:
https://discord.gg/gTt6xHd
RBridgevineB
RGR/G EldraziX
UBlue MoonR
UU/W TronW
If you look at this graph you can see a trend which I have described many times before:
Epiphany for cmc X is roughly as good as a straight draw spell for X-1.
Epiphany for cmc 3 is roughly as good as Anticipate (cmc 3-1 = 2). For same performance Pull needs to be cmc 4.
Epiphany for cmc 4 is roughly as good as Thirst(cmc 4-1 = 3). Pull needs to be cmc 5.
This does not even take into account the second blue required. Having a spell that offers Anticipate/Thirst early game for a 1 mana tax is okay, casting an Epiphany early is not great but also not horrible. Pull on the other hand requires 2 additional mana (compared to Anticipate/Thirst) and an additional blue, which makes it significantly worse for cmc <= 5. (Note that the graph does not take UU into account so in reality you would have to shift the red line more to the right, it basically thinks of Pull as a U1X spell) On the other hand for very high cmc Pull clearly offers more bang for your buck, but the question is do you need that or is it just win more?
My conclusion is Pull is too bad early/midgame and just win more late. The second blue makes the spell harder to cast at all points. I'd rather have a Gifts/Epiphany in my deck.
Youtube Channel
My stream:
www.twitch.tv/pierakor
My Disco:
https://discord.gg/gTt6xHd
Zoo and Merfolk are essentially unwinnable so no real point trying to fix those.
Tron and Scapeshift are simpilarly difficult, we can sideboard to get close to 50-50 and that is about it.
Pioneer:UR Pheonix
Modern:U Mono U Tron
EDH
GB Glissa, the traitor: Army of Cans
UW Dragonlord Ojutai: Dragonlord NOjutai
UWGDerevi, Empyrial Tactician "you cannot fight the storm"
R Zirilan of the claw. The solution to every problem is dragons
UB Etrata, the Silencer Cloning assassination
Peasant cube: Cards I own
Youtube Channel
My stream:
www.twitch.tv/pierakor
My Disco:
https://discord.gg/gTt6xHd
Anyone who's wondering about 'an insane winrate' for any given matchup. The answer is usually 'Run more Chalices'. This cards impact on fair and unfair decks can't be easily understood without a) playing against them b) watching you opponent 'do nothing' for 3 turns before the mindslaver.
With no way to Tutor Ugin, why even play it as a 1 of. Am I missing something? Are you just hoping to draw it?
I'm slowly beginning to build this deck because I love the concept. All while still keeping it on the budget side. So if I can get away without Ugin, that would be swell.
Ugin just wins vs most decks and is crazy strong. Come into play, -3/-4/-5 to clear the board and then plus once or twice and then minus again.... crazy crazy strong.
Youtube Channel
My stream:
www.twitch.tv/pierakor
My Disco:
https://discord.gg/gTt6xHd
I 100% agree Ugin is amazing. My question is, is running 1 actually worth it since there's no tutoring for it?
Yes. 100% You could play a second in the side but it would be dead in your hand often. All our other win cons we can pitch to thirst and being back later with ruins if needed. But ugin can't be recurred unless you play haven of the spirit dragon which well, don't play.
To testify this: shoktroopa, Stubborn as he is has had an ugin in his lists since he started using it, consistently.
Youtube Channel
My stream:
www.twitch.tv/pierakor
My Disco:
https://discord.gg/gTt6xHd
Early builds seemed to use Trading Post, but I don't see that in any modern builds. Question is, even if it isn't optimal was it bad? As a budget version while I build to other things is it acceptable or not even worth including?
Youtube Channel
My stream:
www.twitch.tv/pierakor
My Disco:
https://discord.gg/gTt6xHd
Or is it just too cutesy?