I'd be curious to see some more complete data on how we lose when we lose. In particular, the distribution between:
Fizzling: we untap with a draw engine in play or land a draw engine with one mana open and it doesn't get killed, but still fail to kill the opponent.
Outraced: opponent kills us before we can untap with a draw engine in play or play a draw engine with one mana open
Total dysfunction (beating ourselves): our deck does not allow us to play a draw engine until late in the game (i.e. mana screw or draw engine screw, usually via the mull to oblivion)
Interaction: opponent manages to kill, counter, or discard our draw engines so that we never untap with one in play or get one to live while we play artifacts
Permanent hoser: we get hit with a hoser and can't deal with it, either creature (Thalia, Eidolons), artifact (chalice), or enchantment (rule of law, eidolons, stony silence, blood moon, leyline)
Playing more equipment and more retract effects helps with fizzling. Getting flat out outraced is rare enough that I wouldn't worry about it. Playing tutors helps with interaction and beating ourselves. Counterspells and discard can help with interaction and permanent hosers. A permanent hoser on the board demands a specific answer.
The tricky part is that when we use resources to shore up one weakness it tends to make the others worse. I don't know what the optimum balance is but I think it's the right way to frame up the design decisions:
What is the maximum acceptable fizzle rate?
What is the maximum acceptable total dysfunction rate?
How many pieces of interaction should we be able to play through, pre and post board?
How many pieces of permanent hate should we be able to play through, pre and post board?
How resilient are we to random hate?
Also, if something shores up multiple problems I think it's really worth exploring. For example, if you're running Gifts Ungiven then running a package of Fragmentize, Disenchant, and Wear // Tear instead of three Fragmentize would offer you more outs to permanent based hate. Ditto with Dispatch and Echoing Truth (maybe even Harm's Way) for creatures. Having access to an extra Grapeshot helps out with creature hosers and offers some protection against random hate (having your one grapeshot eaten by a TKS or Seek is a bad feeling).
I'm not really sure how to do the math on the chances of fizzling. It seems quite complex.
I'm not comfortable with less than 2 Grapeshot and I feel like 2 Noxious Revival are necessary with the Gifts package, so I'm only running 3 Gifts, and with only 18 equipment. With the equipment count so low the SSG/Rugged Prairie plan may not be worth it but I'll test this and see how it goes. Many may balk at the sideboard Island but Blood Moon is rampant in my local meta.
Hurkyl's is still very important because if you fizzle into Gifts, next turn pile of Retract, Outcome, Hurkyl's, Revival guarantees you can finish the combo.
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Slowly breaking.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
Managed a 4-1 league using the list from last page. Gifts was nice to refuel after a combo fizzle and as a must-counter spell to force opponents to tap out. Also had a game or two where it rotted in hand as I was stuck on lands.
Game one I started with two lands, two dudes, gifts, retract, and an equipment. I cheered when he led with Search for Tomorrow on turn one. I mini comboed turn 2, he had no interaction, I won turn 3. Game two he had everything: bolt for Sram, dispel for retract, remand for Sram, dispel for gifts, bolt for Paladin. I did manage to get a Sram to live with an equipment in hand but immediately hit a land. Next turn scapeshift. Game three he has no interaction and I combo him out turn three.
Round 2: UR Storm 2-1 (2-0)
Game one he lands turn two Baral. I play turn two Sram (plains + SSG), equip, equip, mox, puresteel, equip, equip, brick. I have noxious in hand so I can maybe kind of mess with him going off. Fortunately he doesn't have it. I lead with gifts turn 3, get remanded, play retract and win from there. Game two I mull to five and have one Sram. He obviously holds bolt up but I go for it on turn 3 after he plays Baral and leaves up a land. I get my one card, Sram eats a bolt, and he kills me turn 4. Game three goes long: I'm stuck on one land with an SSG and Paladin in hand, while he can't find his gas. He may have kept a bad one because it had Leyline of Sanctity, which is not very good against us. I play a land turn 5 and a Sram that gets bolted. Turn 6 my puresteel survives (I had pact also) and I go off from there. Gifts sat in my hand all game uncastable.
Round 3: UW Control/Thopter Combo 2-0 (3-0)
This one was a little weird. I got down turn 1 Sram and drew three. Opponent played flooded strand -> go. I had Arid Mesa, Gifts, SSG, SSG, and Retract. I kind of expected him to kill Sram so I was planning to Gifts at the end of his turn 2 to refuel and go from there. Instead he plays turn 2 Runed Halo naming Grapeshot. Fortunately I found three Bone Saws and the Sram + SSG beats actually get it done. He shows an O-ring and transmutes for a sword of the meek. Game two I mini combo turn two with a Paladin. He plays thirst for knowledge and paths on his turn (ramped with talisman turn two). I play Sram turn 3 and win from there.
Round 4: Infect 2-1 (4-0)
Game one he dismembers my Sram and then closes out the game on turn 4 with Become Immense. Gifts sits in my hand and does nothing. Game two I mini combo with Sram turn two, he plays Blighted Agent on his turn two, I play paladin and win on turn 3. Game 3 I keep a one lander with Sram and don't draw the next land until turn 3. Sram eats a dismember. I have postmortem lunge in hand but my opponent has no creatures so I wait and we stare at each other for a while. I go for the lunge once he plays an inkmoth nexus. It gets spell pierced. He beats in with Nexus and taps out to play Glistener Elf. I noxious revive and play the Sram with three equipment in hand, one in play, two retracts in hand, and one hallowed fountain untapped. Unfortunately I did not hit an Opal.
I had two goofs here: earlier in the game I cracked for both Hallowed Fountains, so my fetches couldn't get blue. I then played a fetch while going off instead of waiting for Rugged Prairie, which meant I had a useless SSG and Paladin in my hand. Opponent attacked with glistener elf. I blocked, it got blossoming defensed, path in response, defense in response. His only untapped land was inkmoth nexus, which does nothing as I play two paladins and win.
Round 5: Naya Chord 1-2 (4-1)
Game one I mull to six and keep a hand with no engine but that does have postmortem lunge. Probably a mistake but it's a moot point as the opponent plays birds into a turn two maindeck Eidolon of Rhetoric... gg well played. Game two I keep a hand with gifts but no engine. Draw Paladin and mini combo turn two. Turn three I play another Paladin and pass. Turn four I gifts for four equipment and combo out from there. Game three I mull to five and keep a one lander with two Paladins. I have Fragmentize for his Eidolon of Rhetoric but don't see mana until a mox opal on turn 5. I have to play both my equipment to play it and play paladin. Both Puresteels get pathed over the next two turns and the dream of a trophy is gone.
Summary
Overall the deck felt pretty good. I was bummed to lose a match against what felt like a decent matchup but I can't complain about a Thoughtseize-free league.
The possibility of a fast win is still there (in a previous league I beat a guy game one turn one on the draw and game three turn two on the play) but usually you're aiming for a turn three kill. Getting a guy in play turn one with SSG threatens a turn two kill. Gifts is awful when you lose to mana screw or when the opponent can kill you by turn four. Gifts is great in an attrition battle and works well to refuel after a combo fizzle.
The basic concept is to maximize resilience and minimize fizzling game one in order to push through the opponent's interaction and win quickly. After sideboarding I sacrifice some speed for interaction (generally -2 to 4 SSG and -0 to 2 equipment, plus pact/path/fragmentize). It's possible in some matches I should instead sacrifice a little resilience by pulling the Gifts package, but I do value the reduction in mulligans that gifts offers.
I'd be curious to see some more complete data on how we lose when we lose. In particular, the distribution between:
Fizzling: we untap with a draw engine in play or land a draw engine with one mana open and it doesn't get killed, but still fail to kill the opponent.
Outraced: opponent kills us before we can untap with a draw engine in play or play a draw engine with one mana open
Total dysfunction (beating ourselves): our deck does not allow us to play a draw engine until late in the game (i.e. mana screw or draw engine screw, usually via the mull to oblivion)
Interaction: opponent manages to kill, counter, or discard our draw engines so that we never untap with one in play or get one to live while we play artifacts
Permanent hoser: we get hit with a hoser and can't deal with it, either creature (Thalia, Eidolons), artifact (chalice), or enchantment (rule of law, eidolons, stony silence, blood moon, leyline)
Playing more equipment and more retract effects helps with fizzling. Getting flat out outraced is rare enough that I wouldn't worry about it. Playing tutors helps with interaction and beating ourselves. Counterspells and discard can help with interaction and permanent hosers. A permanent hoser on the board demands a specific answer.
The tricky part is that when we use resources to shore up one weakness it tends to make the others worse. I don't know what the optimum balance is but I think it's the right way to frame up the design decisions:
What is the maximum acceptable fizzle rate?
What is the maximum acceptable total dysfunction rate?
How many pieces of interaction should we be able to play through, pre and post board?
How many pieces of permanent hate should we be able to play through, pre and post board?
How resilient are we to random hate?
Also, if something shores up multiple problems I think it's really worth exploring. For example, if you're running Gifts Ungiven then running a package of Fragmentize, Disenchant, and Wear // Tear instead of three Fragmentize would offer you more outs to permanent based hate. Ditto with Dispatch and Echoing Truth (maybe even Harm's Way) for creatures. Having access to an extra Grapeshot helps out with creature hosers and offers some protection against random hate (having your one grapeshot eaten by a TKS or Seek is a bad feeling).
I'm not really sure how to do the math on the chances of fizzling. It seems quite complex.
I am working on this now, however I am going to pause until after the ban/unban announcement. If they bust Pre-Ordain out of the slammer that will shift everything. I have been running 200 walk-through's of each build to get reasonable statistics. I am at around 1400 games so far. This is the preliminary info that I have come up with concerning a build jammed with 5 protection spells:
This is how I played it. First I tracked how many cards per keep, then when I started to combo, whether or not I fizzled that turn, and how long it took to get traction again and combo off. I didn't track past turn 7, as most of the time in this format you will be dead. This isn't always the case, but I had to draw the line somewhere, otherwise it would take forever.
If I hit a second engine and I have 2 or fewer cheeri0s/no bounce I stopped until I could play it, either that turn or the following. This led to a much higher win-by T3 rate than otherwise. Sure you miss out on the 5% or so T2 wins, but you grab another 15-20% in the T3/T4 range and fizzle about 60-70% less.
I have found that each additional support engine adds an increase of about 8% and 6% respectively to combo kills in the T2-4 range. This includes Contraband Kingpin and Riddlesmith. Kingpin, while demanding a complex color package, was a bit better as scrying was almost always better than looting. Sometimes you want to pitch grapeshot so you don't fizzle, and this made it so noxious wasn't as precious. I started with the standard 8, then kept adding engines to 10 so far. I will bump to 3 support engines next, but my feeling is that the return may not be as dramatic. Multiples do dig deep for real engines, and the kingpins are a nightmare for burn (our 1/7 vigilance/lifelink vs their eidolon...we win the race), but time will tell. My meta is 25% burn so it may be nice to have the 3rd main-board, but in a large tourney meta I don't think it will be as critical.
20 Cheeri0s is the most you need. More cantrips get you far more utility. They reduce not only your fizzle rate, but also your mulligan rate. Substituting 2 cantrips for 2 cheeri0s (down to 18 0's) reduced fizzle rates by over 13%. 7c keeps increased over 4%, and 6c keeps by 8%.
Dropping to 17 or more cheeri0s, even with added cantrips, increased fizzle rates quite a bit. 2 engine combos still fizzled over 8% more often. You just get excited to see an 0, and I think that is getting a bit thin.
I will keep plugging after they make up their minds what we can play with, cheers!
20 Cheeri0s is the most you need. More cantrips get you far more utility. They reduce not only your fizzle rate, but also your mulligan rate. Substituting 2 cantrips for 2 cheeri0s (down to 18 0's) reduced fizzle rates by over 13%. 7c keeps increased over 4%, and 6c keeps by 8%.
Dropping to 17 or more cheeri0s, even with added cantrips, increased fizzle rates quite a bit. 2 engine combos still fizzled over 8% more often. You just get excited to see an 0, and I think that is getting a bit thin.
I will keep plugging after they make up their minds what we can play with, cheers!
This is very interesting. Thanks for figuring this stuff out! I'm excited to see the numbers as they develop.
The Path and Echoing Truth are in there so we aren't just hard locked by permanent hate game one. A lot of decks that can't really interact with us or race us can still score free wins with incidental hate. Against most decks they will kind of replace themselves by buying an extra turn of life, even sans hate. The presence of Gifts in the deck gives a decent number of outs at the cost of only two slots (Path, Truth, Noxious, ...).
Serum Visions is mostly to guard against mana screw. That's an easy way to lose winnable matchups. Smoothing out the combo is a nice bonus.
SSG provides occasional speed boost and combo smoothing. T1 kills are still theoretically possible. SSG and Gemstone Mines allow easy access to red mana and let us almost ignore Stony Silence.
Took the list to 4-1 in an online league against Eldrazi and Taxes (2-0, game one path for Thalia was clutch), Lantern Control (2-1, Paradoxical Outcome was key refuel MVP game 3), UW spirits (2-0, combo off on turn 2 both games), UB Tron (1-2, hard fought, he got me with a Slaughter Pact on a key turn while tapped out), UW Control (2-1, Paradoxical Outcome that was meant as counter bait won game 3).
I didn't really miss equipment 19 and 20. I do think Hurkyl's Recall is important. It's Retract #5 and it makes for a nice value Gifts pile.
20 Cheeri0s is the most you need. More cantrips get you far more utility. They reduce not only your fizzle rate, but also your mulligan rate. Substituting 2 cantrips for 2 cheeri0s (down to 18 0's) reduced fizzle rates by over 13%. 7c keeps increased over 4%, and 6c keeps by 8%.
Dropping to 17 or more cheeri0s, even with added cantrips, increased fizzle rates quite a bit. 2 engine combos still fizzled over 8% more often. You just get excited to see an 0, and I think that is getting a bit thin.
I will keep plugging after they make up their minds what we can play with, cheers!
This is very interesting. Thanks for figuring this stuff out! I'm excited to see the numbers as they develop.
The Path and Echoing Truth are in there so we aren't just hard locked by permanent hate game one. A lot of decks that can't really interact with us or race us can still score free wins with incidental hate. Against most decks they will kind of replace themselves by buying an extra turn of life, even sans hate. The presence of Gifts in the deck gives a decent number of outs at the cost of only two slots (Path, Truth, Noxious, ...).
Serum Visions is mostly to guard against mana screw. That's an easy way to lose winnable matchups. Smoothing out the combo is a nice bonus.
SSG provides occasional speed boost and combo smoothing. T1 kills are still theoretically possible. SSG and Gemstone Mines allow easy access to red mana and let us almost ignore Stony Silence.
Took the list to 4-1 in an online league against Eldrazi and Taxes (2-0, game one path for Thalia was clutch), Lantern Control (2-1, Paradoxical Outcome was key refuel MVP game 3), UW spirits (2-0, combo off on turn 2 both games), UB Tron (1-2, hard fought, he got me with a Slaughter Pact on a key turn while tapped out), UW Control (2-1, Paradoxical Outcome that was meant as counter bait won game 3).
I didn't really miss equipment 19 and 20. I do think Hurkyl's Recall is important. It's Retract #5 and it makes for a nice value Gifts pile.
In my testing Hurkyl's Recall was very important in reducing fizzle rates. Over 20% improvement in 18 cheeri0 builds. I think using Echoing truth as a substitute warrants testing to see if it can do as a replacement in the 5th bounce slot. It isn't as effective, but maybe it can get us enough of a lift, maybe in the 15% range, which gives us an out vs Thalia, Eidolon, ect... in game one.
In my testing Hurkyl's Recall was very important in reducing fizzle rates. Over 20% improvement in 18 cheeri0 builds. I think using Echoing truth as a substitute warrants testing to see if it can do as a replacement in the 5th bounce slot. It isn't as effective, but maybe it can get us enough of a lift, maybe in the 15% range, which gives us an out vs Thalia, Eidolon, ect... in game one.
Going to 18 equipment freed up space for an Echoing Truth and Path in the main. I have actually used the Echoing Truth as a self-bounce to draw 3.
I realise everyone else is doing some really good deck creation, but did you realise the literal translation of 'Sram' in Polish is 'sh*tting' - does this give a whole new meaning to our Cheeri0s deck!? Maybe all-bran?
Will run the deck at next FNM and feedback
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Cheeri0s is the breakfast of championsWRU Everyone loves an angry mobRWG Why so Bloo?RU
I've played this deck for a couple of weeks now and it is really strong. My biggest worry is that something from it will be banned soon (or at least before the summer). This is a list that Wizards doesn't like, I feel it in my spine. The question is, what will be banned and will the deck survive it? Can Retract be replaced? Mox Opal?
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Warning for Modern banlist discussion outside of the official thread -ktkenshinx-
I've played this deck for a couple of weeks now and it is really strong. My biggest worry is that something from it will be banned soon (or at least before the summer). This is a list that Wizards doesn't like, I feel it in my spine. The question is, what will be banned and will the deck survive it? Can Retract be replaced? Mox Opal?
Remember that banlist discussion is prohibited outside of designated threads. The Modern forum rules are extremely clear about this. If you want to talk about the banlist, you may do so in the State of Modern thread.
sideboard Spirit Link is something that may be worth considering again, not only for Eidolon, but also to force 2 for 1 on other decks without Snapcaster that want to kill every creature we play. Particularly effective against opponents willing to mull for sideboard hate and keep with that plus a threat/removal, the card alone isnt broken but combined with circumstances can shift the game
Hurkyl's is still very important because if you fizzle into Gifts, next turn pile of Retract, Outcome, Hurkyl's, Revival guarantees you can finish the combo.
No SSG is a deal breaker when compared to SV; at 4 mana Gifts is just too hard to cast consistently with help.
Hurkyl's is still very important because if you fizzle into Gifts, next turn pile of Retract, Outcome, Hurkyl's, Revival guarantees you can finish the combo.
No SSG is a deal breaker when compared to SV; at 4 mana Gifts is just too hard to cast consistently without help.
20 Cheeri0s is the most you need. More cantrips get you far more utility. They reduce not only your fizzle rate, but also your mulligan rate. Substituting 2 cantrips for 2 cheeri0s (down to 18 0's) reduced fizzle rates by over 13%. 7c keeps increased over 4%, and 6c keeps by 8%.
Dropping to 17 or more cheeri0s, even with added cantrips, increased fizzle rates quite a bit. 2 engine combos still fizzled over 8% more often. You just get excited to see an 0, and I think that is getting a bit thin.
I will keep plugging after they make up their minds what we can play with, cheers!
One other question--have you tried testing the complete madman all-in version with 4 SSG, 4 Rugged Prairie, 2 Hurkyl's, and 23 equipment? My gut feeling is that a turn two kill with that list was roughly as common as the turn three kill with the standard list, but that might be my bias speaking.
Also, a 1-of Merchant Scroll might be worthwhile if we maindeck Gifts or Paradoxical Outcome. Fetches up a retract, sideboard bounce/retract, or 4-mana gas spell.
20 Cheeri0s is the most you need. More cantrips get you far more utility. They reduce not only your fizzle rate, but also your mulligan rate. Substituting 2 cantrips for 2 cheeri0s (down to 18 0's) reduced fizzle rates by over 13%. 7c keeps increased over 4%, and 6c keeps by 8%.
Dropping to 17 or more cheeri0s, even with added cantrips, increased fizzle rates quite a bit. 2 engine combos still fizzled over 8% more often. You just get excited to see an 0, and I think that is getting a bit thin.
I will keep plugging after they make up their minds what we can play with, cheers!
One other question--have you tried testing the complete madman all-in version with 4 SSG, 4 Rugged Prairie, 2 Hurkyl's, and 23 equipment? My gut feeling is that a turn two kill with that list was roughly as common as the turn three kill with the standard list, but that might be my bias speaking.
Also, a 1-of Merchant Scroll might be worthwhile if we maindeck Gifts or Paradoxical Outcome. Fetches up a retract, sideboard bounce/retract, or 4-mana gas spell.
I haven't tried the SSG list yet, but I plan on it soon after tomorrows shake-up. I got too excited and tried a list with Preordain...it is bonkers better stats-wise. We will be able to drop to 14 lands with an increase in protection and probably have a better Turn 2/3 win-rate. This was probably a mistake and just got my hopes up, but you never know!
Hmmm, the merchant scroll idea feels sexy. I think that will be my next run if nothing happens tomorrow, once with a single PO and once with Gifts, although to understand the full value of both I will need to try it against some of our worse match-ups. I think if some of our protection is of the right persuasion it will help us set up more consistently if not more quickly.
These lists are identical, which could be accurate or could be an error on SCG's part. I'll just assume they are identical for now.
Based on this plus the other performance we've seen, the most successful Cheeri0s lists appear to be UW or UWr lists running 3-4 SV and maindeck Song. 15-16 lands appears to be the best configuration, 1 GS and 2 NR seems better than 2 GS and 1 NR, and 19-20 equipment appears to be right. I strongly agree with 2 NR and 4 SV in this current metagame. They dramatically improve the DS Jund matchup by increasing consistency, recovering/finding pieces, and reducing variance. Outcome was great tech vs. Jund and Abzan but is way too slow and clunky against DS Jund. This means Leyline is back in; although it leads to bad variance situations, it's better to gamble on the Leyline nut draw than try to piledrive through as many as 16 pieces of interaction plus a fast clock.
Non Cheerios player reporting in. Just confirming that SCG messed up, and the second place was actually Faeries. The deck was well represented though. I played against it during the open when I was on Merfolk, and got paired against it in round 8 of the classic - he wanted the ID to get in to top 8, and I was more than happy to sit another round out.
Really fast, and very consistent. I had forgotten how wonderful it was to play with so many cheeri0s. 2 engine fizzle rates were below 2% I had also forgotten how it was to play with only 8 engines. 8% of the T7+ games were due to mulling to oblivion.
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The tricky part is that when we use resources to shore up one weakness it tends to make the others worse. I don't know what the optimum balance is but I think it's the right way to frame up the design decisions:
I'm not really sure how to do the math on the chances of fizzling. It seems quite complex.
2 Arid Mesa
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Plains
4 Rugged Prairie
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Mox Opal
4 Accorder's Shield
4 Bone Saw
2 Cathar's Shield
4 Paradise Mantle
4 Spidersilk Net
1 Paradoxical Outcome
2 Noxious Revival
2 Grapeshot
4 Sram, Senior Edificer
4 Puresteel Paladin
3 Gifts Ungiven
1 Island
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Wear/Tear
1 Disenchant
1 Fragmentize
3 Path to Exile
3 Echoing Truth
1 Swan Song
1 Pact of Negation
2 Paradoxical Outcome
I'm not comfortable with less than 2 Grapeshot and I feel like 2 Noxious Revival are necessary with the Gifts package, so I'm only running 3 Gifts, and with only 18 equipment. With the equipment count so low the SSG/Rugged Prairie plan may not be worth it but I'll test this and see how it goes. Many may balk at the sideboard Island but Blood Moon is rampant in my local meta.
4 Sram
3 Gifts Ungiven
1 Paradoxical Outcome
4 Retract
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Grapeshot
1 Noxious Revival
4 Accorder's Shield
4 Cathar's Shield
4 Spidersilk Net
3 Bone Saw
4 Mox Opal
4 Hallowed Fountain
1 Seachrome Coast
4 Arid Mesa
4 Marsh Flats
2 Plains
I think that's 61, not sure what the cut is.
Hurkyl's is still very important because if you fizzle into Gifts, next turn pile of Retract, Outcome, Hurkyl's, Revival guarantees you can finish the combo.
Any more of this, and Team Troll will be more than just a name.
I know where you post.
2 Marsh Flats
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Plains
4 Rugged Prairie
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Mox Opal
4 Accorder's Shield
4 Bone Saw
4 Cathar's Shield
4 Paradise Mantle
4 Spidersilk Net
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Noxious Revival
1 Grapeshot
4 Sram, Senior Edificer
4 Puresteel Paladin
2 Gifts Ungiven
1 Postmortem Lunge
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
3 Fragmentize
2 Path to Exile
3 Pact of Negation
1 Echoing Truth
1 Postmortem Lunge
2 Paradoxical Outcome
Quickie report:
Round 1: Scapeshift 2-1 (1-0)
Game one I started with two lands, two dudes, gifts, retract, and an equipment. I cheered when he led with Search for Tomorrow on turn one. I mini comboed turn 2, he had no interaction, I won turn 3. Game two he had everything: bolt for Sram, dispel for retract, remand for Sram, dispel for gifts, bolt for Paladin. I did manage to get a Sram to live with an equipment in hand but immediately hit a land. Next turn scapeshift. Game three he has no interaction and I combo him out turn three.
Round 2: UR Storm 2-1 (2-0)
Game one he lands turn two Baral. I play turn two Sram (plains + SSG), equip, equip, mox, puresteel, equip, equip, brick. I have noxious in hand so I can maybe kind of mess with him going off. Fortunately he doesn't have it. I lead with gifts turn 3, get remanded, play retract and win from there. Game two I mull to five and have one Sram. He obviously holds bolt up but I go for it on turn 3 after he plays Baral and leaves up a land. I get my one card, Sram eats a bolt, and he kills me turn 4. Game three goes long: I'm stuck on one land with an SSG and Paladin in hand, while he can't find his gas. He may have kept a bad one because it had Leyline of Sanctity, which is not very good against us. I play a land turn 5 and a Sram that gets bolted. Turn 6 my puresteel survives (I had pact also) and I go off from there. Gifts sat in my hand all game uncastable.
Round 3: UW Control/Thopter Combo 2-0 (3-0)
This one was a little weird. I got down turn 1 Sram and drew three. Opponent played flooded strand -> go. I had Arid Mesa, Gifts, SSG, SSG, and Retract. I kind of expected him to kill Sram so I was planning to Gifts at the end of his turn 2 to refuel and go from there. Instead he plays turn 2 Runed Halo naming Grapeshot. Fortunately I found three Bone Saws and the Sram + SSG beats actually get it done. He shows an O-ring and transmutes for a sword of the meek. Game two I mini combo turn two with a Paladin. He plays thirst for knowledge and paths on his turn (ramped with talisman turn two). I play Sram turn 3 and win from there.
Round 4: Infect 2-1 (4-0)
Game one he dismembers my Sram and then closes out the game on turn 4 with Become Immense. Gifts sits in my hand and does nothing. Game two I mini combo with Sram turn two, he plays Blighted Agent on his turn two, I play paladin and win on turn 3. Game 3 I keep a one lander with Sram and don't draw the next land until turn 3. Sram eats a dismember. I have postmortem lunge in hand but my opponent has no creatures so I wait and we stare at each other for a while. I go for the lunge once he plays an inkmoth nexus. It gets spell pierced. He beats in with Nexus and taps out to play Glistener Elf. I noxious revive and play the Sram with three equipment in hand, one in play, two retracts in hand, and one hallowed fountain untapped. Unfortunately I did not hit an Opal.
I had two goofs here: earlier in the game I cracked for both Hallowed Fountains, so my fetches couldn't get blue. I then played a fetch while going off instead of waiting for Rugged Prairie, which meant I had a useless SSG and Paladin in my hand. Opponent attacked with glistener elf. I blocked, it got blossoming defensed, path in response, defense in response. His only untapped land was inkmoth nexus, which does nothing as I play two paladins and win.
Round 5: Naya Chord 1-2 (4-1)
Game one I mull to six and keep a hand with no engine but that does have postmortem lunge. Probably a mistake but it's a moot point as the opponent plays birds into a turn two maindeck Eidolon of Rhetoric... gg well played. Game two I keep a hand with gifts but no engine. Draw Paladin and mini combo turn two. Turn three I play another Paladin and pass. Turn four I gifts for four equipment and combo out from there. Game three I mull to five and keep a one lander with two Paladins. I have Fragmentize for his Eidolon of Rhetoric but don't see mana until a mox opal on turn 5. I have to play both my equipment to play it and play paladin. Both Puresteels get pathed over the next two turns and the dream of a trophy is gone.
Summary
Overall the deck felt pretty good. I was bummed to lose a match against what felt like a decent matchup but I can't complain about a Thoughtseize-free league.
The possibility of a fast win is still there (in a previous league I beat a guy game one turn one on the draw and game three turn two on the play) but usually you're aiming for a turn three kill. Getting a guy in play turn one with SSG threatens a turn two kill. Gifts is awful when you lose to mana screw or when the opponent can kill you by turn four. Gifts is great in an attrition battle and works well to refuel after a combo fizzle.
The basic concept is to maximize resilience and minimize fizzling game one in order to push through the opponent's interaction and win quickly. After sideboarding I sacrifice some speed for interaction (generally -2 to 4 SSG and -0 to 2 equipment, plus pact/path/fragmentize). It's possible in some matches I should instead sacrifice a little resilience by pulling the Gifts package, but I do value the reduction in mulligans that gifts offers.
I am working on this now, however I am going to pause until after the ban/unban announcement. If they bust Pre-Ordain out of the slammer that will shift everything. I have been running 200 walk-through's of each build to get reasonable statistics. I am at around 1400 games so far. This is the preliminary info that I have come up with concerning a build jammed with 5 protection spells:
This is how I played it. First I tracked how many cards per keep, then when I started to combo, whether or not I fizzled that turn, and how long it took to get traction again and combo off. I didn't track past turn 7, as most of the time in this format you will be dead. This isn't always the case, but I had to draw the line somewhere, otherwise it would take forever.
If I hit a second engine and I have 2 or fewer cheeri0s/no bounce I stopped until I could play it, either that turn or the following. This led to a much higher win-by T3 rate than otherwise. Sure you miss out on the 5% or so T2 wins, but you grab another 15-20% in the T3/T4 range and fizzle about 60-70% less.
I have found that each additional support engine adds an increase of about 8% and 6% respectively to combo kills in the T2-4 range. This includes Contraband Kingpin and Riddlesmith. Kingpin, while demanding a complex color package, was a bit better as scrying was almost always better than looting. Sometimes you want to pitch grapeshot so you don't fizzle, and this made it so noxious wasn't as precious. I started with the standard 8, then kept adding engines to 10 so far. I will bump to 3 support engines next, but my feeling is that the return may not be as dramatic. Multiples do dig deep for real engines, and the kingpins are a nightmare for burn (our 1/7 vigilance/lifelink vs their eidolon...we win the race), but time will tell. My meta is 25% burn so it may be nice to have the 3rd main-board, but in a large tourney meta I don't think it will be as critical.
20 Cheeri0s is the most you need. More cantrips get you far more utility. They reduce not only your fizzle rate, but also your mulligan rate. Substituting 2 cantrips for 2 cheeri0s (down to 18 0's) reduced fizzle rates by over 13%. 7c keeps increased over 4%, and 6c keeps by 8%.
Dropping to 17 or more cheeri0s, even with added cantrips, increased fizzle rates quite a bit. 2 engine combos still fizzled over 8% more often. You just get excited to see an 0, and I think that is getting a bit thin.
I will keep plugging after they make up their minds what we can play with, cheers!
Given this data I like this configuration:
4 Marsh Flats
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Plains
2 Gemstone Mine
2 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Mox Opal
4 Accorder's Shield
4 Cathar's Shield
4 Bone Saw
4 Paradise Mantle
2 Spidersilk Net
4 Retract
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Grapeshot
1 Noxious Revival
1 Echoing Truth
1 Path to Exile
1 Postmortem Lunge
4 Sram, Senior Edificer
4 Puresteel Paladin
2 Serum Visions
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Dispatch
1 Fragmentize
1 Disenchant
1 Wear // Tear
3 Pact of Negation
1 Postmortem Lunge
1 Grapeshot
1 Noxious Revival
The Path and Echoing Truth are in there so we aren't just hard locked by permanent hate game one. A lot of decks that can't really interact with us or race us can still score free wins with incidental hate. Against most decks they will kind of replace themselves by buying an extra turn of life, even sans hate. The presence of Gifts in the deck gives a decent number of outs at the cost of only two slots (Path, Truth, Noxious, ...).
Serum Visions is mostly to guard against mana screw. That's an easy way to lose winnable matchups. Smoothing out the combo is a nice bonus.
SSG provides occasional speed boost and combo smoothing. T1 kills are still theoretically possible. SSG and Gemstone Mines allow easy access to red mana and let us almost ignore Stony Silence.
Took the list to 4-1 in an online league against Eldrazi and Taxes (2-0, game one path for Thalia was clutch), Lantern Control (2-1, Paradoxical Outcome was key refuel MVP game 3), UW spirits (2-0, combo off on turn 2 both games), UB Tron (1-2, hard fought, he got me with a Slaughter Pact on a key turn while tapped out), UW Control (2-1, Paradoxical Outcome that was meant as counter bait won game 3).
I didn't really miss equipment 19 and 20. I do think Hurkyl's Recall is important. It's Retract #5 and it makes for a nice value Gifts pile.
In my testing Hurkyl's Recall was very important in reducing fizzle rates. Over 20% improvement in 18 cheeri0 builds. I think using Echoing truth as a substitute warrants testing to see if it can do as a replacement in the 5th bounce slot. It isn't as effective, but maybe it can get us enough of a lift, maybe in the 15% range, which gives us an out vs Thalia, Eidolon, ect... in game one.
Going to 18 equipment freed up space for an Echoing Truth and Path in the main. I have actually used the Echoing Truth as a self-bounce to draw 3.
Will run the deck at next FNM and feedback
Everyone loves an angry mob RWG
Why so Bloo? RU
Remember that banlist discussion is prohibited outside of designated threads. The Modern forum rules are extremely clear about this. If you want to talk about the banlist, you may do so in the State of Modern thread.
One other question--have you tried testing the complete madman all-in version with 4 SSG, 4 Rugged Prairie, 2 Hurkyl's, and 23 equipment? My gut feeling is that a turn two kill with that list was roughly as common as the turn three kill with the standard list, but that might be my bias speaking.
Also, a 1-of Merchant Scroll might be worthwhile if we maindeck Gifts or Paradoxical Outcome. Fetches up a retract, sideboard bounce/retract, or 4-mana gas spell.
I haven't tried the SSG list yet, but I plan on it soon after tomorrows shake-up. I got too excited and tried a list with Preordain...it is bonkers better stats-wise. We will be able to drop to 14 lands with an increase in protection and probably have a better Turn 2/3 win-rate. This was probably a mistake and just got my hopes up, but you never know!
Hmmm, the merchant scroll idea feels sexy. I think that will be my next run if nothing happens tomorrow, once with a single PO and once with Gifts, although to understand the full value of both I will need to try it against some of our worse match-ups. I think if some of our protection is of the right persuasion it will help us set up more consistently if not more quickly.
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=112258
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=112270
These lists are identical, which could be accurate or could be an error on SCG's part. I'll just assume they are identical for now.
Based on this plus the other performance we've seen, the most successful Cheeri0s lists appear to be UW or UWr lists running 3-4 SV and maindeck Song. 15-16 lands appears to be the best configuration, 1 GS and 2 NR seems better than 2 GS and 1 NR, and 19-20 equipment appears to be right. I strongly agree with 2 NR and 4 SV in this current metagame. They dramatically improve the DS Jund matchup by increasing consistency, recovering/finding pieces, and reducing variance. Outcome was great tech vs. Jund and Abzan but is way too slow and clunky against DS Jund. This means Leyline is back in; although it leads to bad variance situations, it's better to gamble on the Leyline nut draw than try to piledrive through as many as 16 pieces of interaction plus a fast clock.
This is the list I tested for the SSG deck.
T1 1%
T2 23%
T3 37%
T4 12%
T5 7%
T6 7%
T7+ 14%
Really fast, and very consistent. I had forgotten how wonderful it was to play with so many cheeri0s. 2 engine fizzle rates were below 2% I had also forgotten how it was to play with only 8 engines. 8% of the T7+ games were due to mulling to oblivion.