@ktrojan Are you running discard rather than serum visions? I know someone had moved in that direction previously when they brought black in; I lean heavy on serum visions when I fizzle. The creature removal does seem like a nice perk, Thalia and eidolon, although it seems like potentially a major speed loss with the introduction (moving towards turn 5, but that happens with a dedicated deck when it fizzles too so maybe not).
Yeah for starters in testing I was on inquisition (having to shock more often for black I didn't want to run ts) I dropped sv/swan. However with the "back up plan" main inquisition seemed to matter less g1. I've now played 8 matches and the demon does matter. A lot of spots monk wouldn't have been better because he tends to come down after trying to go off. Obviously still very early in testing however with that said I'm moving to just 2 main and 2 kingpin main now on top of bringing 2 visions back in. My test list is as follows.
@ktrojan Are you running discard rather than serum visions? I know someone had moved in that direction previously when they brought black in; I lean heavy on serum visions when I fizzle. The creature removal does seem like a nice perk, Thalia and eidolon, although it seems like potentially a major speed loss with the introduction (moving towards turn 5, but that happens with a dedicated deck when it fizzles too so maybe not).
Yeah for starters in testing I was on inquisition (having to shock more often for black I didn't want to run ts) I dropped sv/swan. However with the "back up plan" main inquisition seemed to matter less g1. I've now played 8 matches and the demon does matter. A lot of spots monk wouldn't have been better because he tends to come down after trying to go off. Obviously still very early in testing however with that said I'm moving to just 2 main and 2 kingpin main now on top of bringing 2 visions back in.
The sacred foundry main seems conservative in trying to hit all the bases for color needs. Have you needed it with only one grapeshot? I would think another fetch would help consistency rather than foundry as it's dead to 10 cards main deck
@ktrojan Are you running discard rather than serum visions? I know someone had moved in that direction previously when they brought black in; I lean heavy on serum visions when I fizzle. The creature removal does seem like a nice perk, Thalia and eidolon, although it seems like potentially a major speed loss with the introduction (moving towards turn 5, but that happens with a dedicated deck when it fizzles too so maybe not).
Yeah for starters in testing I was on inquisition (having to shock more often for black I didn't want to run ts) I dropped sv/swan. However with the "back up plan" main inquisition seemed to matter less g1. I've now played 8 matches and the demon does matter. A lot of spots monk wouldn't have been better because he tends to come down after trying to go off. Obviously still very early in testing however with that said I'm moving to just 2 main and 2 kingpin main now on top of bringing 2 visions back in.
The sacred foundry main seems conservative in trying to hit all the bases for color needs. Have you needed it with only one grapeshot? I would think another fetch would help consistency rather than foundry as it's dead to 10 cards main deck
In my black list I ditched the foundry. It caused more problems than it helped. sticking 2 gemstone mines will help consistency quite a bit for your T1.
@ktrojan Are you running discard rather than serum visions? I know someone had moved in that direction previously when they brought black in; I lean heavy on serum visions when I fizzle. The creature removal does seem like a nice perk, Thalia and eidolon, although it seems like potentially a major speed loss with the introduction (moving towards turn 5, but that happens with a dedicated deck when it fizzles too so maybe not).
Yeah for starters in testing I was on inquisition (having to shock more often for black I didn't want to run ts) I dropped sv/swan. However with the "back up plan" main inquisition seemed to matter less g1. I've now played 8 matches and the demon does matter. A lot of spots monk wouldn't have been better because he tends to come down after trying to go off. Obviously still very early in testing however with that said I'm moving to just 2 main and 2 kingpin main now on top of bringing 2 visions back in.
The sacred foundry main seems conservative in trying to hit all the bases for color needs. Have you needed it with only one grapeshot? I would think another fetch would help consistency rather than foundry as it's dead to 10 cards main deck
In my black list I ditched the foundry. It caused more problems than it helped. sticking 2 gemstone mines will help consistency quite a bit for your T1.
Everyone runs stony so that's the only reason I still play one. When I'm on the draw I I board it out when facing a deck I don't fear stony. That said with a new (I think decent) back up plan I might not need it as much.
If burn wasn't so prevalent right now I'd think about running some bobs to test.
@ktrojan Are you running discard rather than serum visions? I know someone had moved in that direction previously when they brought black in; I lean heavy on serum visions when I fizzle. The creature removal does seem like a nice perk, Thalia and eidolon, although it seems like potentially a major speed loss with the introduction (moving towards turn 5, but that happens with a dedicated deck when it fizzles too so maybe not).
Yeah for starters in testing I was on inquisition (having to shock more often for black I didn't want to run ts) I dropped sv/swan. However with the "back up plan" main inquisition seemed to matter less g1. I've now played 8 matches and the demon does matter. A lot of spots monk wouldn't have been better because he tends to come down after trying to go off. Obviously still very early in testing however with that said I'm moving to just 2 main and 2 kingpin main now on top of bringing 2 visions back in.
The sacred foundry main seems conservative in trying to hit all the bases for color needs. Have you needed it with only one grapeshot? I would think another fetch would help consistency rather than foundry as it's dead to 10 cards main deck
In my black list I ditched the foundry. It caused more problems than it helped. sticking 2 gemstone mines will help consistency quite a bit for your T1.
Everyone runs stony so that's the only reason I still play one. When I'm on the draw I I board it out when facing a deck I don't fear stony. That said with a new (I think decent) back up plan I might not need it as much.
If burn wasn't so prevalent right now I'd think about running some bobs to test.
Bob...seems...great! Just seeing them grumble over whether to let it live might be well worth it. Drawing extra cheeri0s for 0 life would be pretty groovy. Going to begin the testing now. With Herald MD I don't dig it, but everything else is 2 or less, so well worth it against the heavy removal MU's at least.
Bob...seems...great! Just seeing them grumble over whether to let it live might be well worth it. Drawing extra cheeri0s for 0 life would be pretty groovy. Going to begin the testing now. With Herald MD I don't dig it, but everything else is 2 or less, so well worth it against the heavy removal MU's at least.
Yeah the fact that they'll almost always burn their removal on bob made him appealing to me.
I'm nervous about Bob's ability to improve our current worst matchup: DS Jund. It hurts us, doesn't threaten to win the game, and isn't guaranteed to find gas. That's really risky against a deck with disruption and a fast clock. I do think Bob would be solid against decks like traditional Jund, Abzan, or Grixis, but DS Jund is a different beast.
How bad is Wind-Kin Raiders? It's on-color and generally comes down a turn earlier than Herald, but it dies to Bolt. Then again, DS Jund doesn't really play Bolt, so that's more a general weakness than a specific one for that matchup. Raiders also hits for 4 instead of 5 so it's slower, which might outweigh coming down a turn earlier than Herald.
Freejam Regent? Comes down a turn earlier than Herald and is on-color (I play a maindeck Foundry). This is playable T1 with some SSG builds too and is spectacular with Rugged Prairie. Regent doesn't die to Bolt and, with a little mana investment, actually clocks faster than Herald.
Bob...seems...great! Just seeing them grumble over whether to let it live might be well worth it. Drawing extra cheeri0s for 0 life would be pretty groovy. Going to begin the testing now. With Herald MD I don't dig it, but everything else is 2 or less, so well worth it against the heavy removal MU's at least.
Yeah the fact that they'll almost always burn their removal on bob made him appealing to me.
I'm nervous about Bob's ability to improve our current worst matchup: DS Jund. It hurts us, doesn't threaten to win the game, and isn't guaranteed to find gas. That's really risky against a deck with disruption and a fast clock. I do think Bob would be solid against decks like traditional Jund, Abzan, or Grixis, but DS Jund is a different beast.
How bad is Wind-Kin Raiders? It's on-color and generally comes down a turn earlier than Herald, but it dies to Bolt. Then again, DS Jund doesn't really play Bolt, so that's more a general weakness than a specific one for that matchup. Raiders also hits for 4 instead of 5 so it's slower, which might outweigh coming down a turn earlier than Herald.
Freejam Regent? Comes down a turn earlier than Herald and is on-color (I play a maindeck Foundry). This is playable T1 with some SSG builds too and is spectacular with Rugged Prairie. Regent doesn't die to Bolt and, with a little mana investment, actually clocks faster than Herald.
I personally think the demon has more going for it in abilities than those two. The mana investment isn't better imo if you are on ssgs. Also I don't think bob is "bad" vs ds. It's card advantage that they will use a kill spell on. Meaning one less for the rest of our enablers. It also can just block if we need it to.
I'm considering picking up Cheerios, as it fits my playstyle very well. I love how the deck plays out, and I'm looking forward to eventually picking up the rest of the pieces I need. My biggest concern with the deck is having itself fizzle out or just not drawing the paladin / sram right away, and having the deck lose to itself. In practice, how often does that happen to you in-game? Maximizing consistency I would think is key, but I'm by no means an expert.
I'm definitely learning some of the sequencing, and I'm trying to decide what kind of gameplan I want. For those of you testing the improvise creatures, how do you find that they work? What about the salvage titan? Do you ever find that they have too slow of a clock, wheras grapeshot can just one shot them? What situations have they been helpful / worth having for you? Also, I've seen some discussion on Mentor. It seems to me like mentor might kinda slow things down and be a bit clunky, but I've not really tested it much, still trying to get used to my current "build", and get sequencing right.
I look forward to joining in the discussions, and seeing where this deck goes.
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MODERN GBCombo ElvesBG UExtra TurnsU UWCheeriosWU
EDH RGURiku of Two ReflectionsRGU (Combo / Creature Toolbox) BWKarlov of the Ghost CouncilWB (Control / Aggro) GWSelvala, Explorer ReturnedWG (Goodstuff) RUWNarset, Enlightened MasterWUR (Superfriends)
I'm considering picking up Cheerios, as it fits my playstyle very well. I love how the deck plays out, and I'm looking forward to eventually picking up the rest of the pieces I need. My biggest concern with the deck is having itself fizzle out or just not drawing the paladin / sram right away, and having the deck lose to itself. In practice, how often does that happen to you in-game? Maximizing consistency I would think is key, but I'm by no means an expert.
I'm definitely learning some of the sequencing, and I'm trying to decide what kind of gameplan I want. For those of you testing the improvise creatures, how do you find that they work? What about the salvage titan? Do you ever find that they have too slow of a clock, wheras grapeshot can just one shot them? What situations have they been helpful / worth having for you? Also, I've seen some discussion on Mentor. It seems to me like mentor might kinda slow things down and be a bit clunky, but I've not really tested it much, still trying to get used to my current "build", and get sequencing right.
I look forward to joining in the discussions, and seeing where this deck goes.
Bastion inventor works fine if equipped, but he has trouble if he runs into a goyf or taisager (although most don't like him). Still waiting for my salvage Titans to come in. Mentor flows into the storm strategy well as a back up plan in theory, but I only run 1 SB so he hasn't won me a game. I've been playing the deck for awhile, more goldfishing than anything, seems simple until you fizzle and realize there was another line.
First version is -3 Kite Shield, -1 Noxious Revival, +4 Serum Visions:
T1: 4%
T2: 22%
T3: 26%
T4: 22%
T5: 6%
T6: 16%
T7+: 4%
Second version is -3 Kite Shield, +3 Serum Visions:
T1: 2%
T2: 24%
T3: 36%
T4: 12%
T5: 8%
T6: 2%
T7+: 14%
Compared to what Shaffalahien had with the pure all in deck we see fewer games hitting the T7+ number. The T4 kill rate seems similar.
One thing that I found interesting was that the SV-only keep could go horribly wrong. Seven card hands with SV and no engines saw kills on: 3, 3, 6, 8, 10, 10
By comparison, 3 and 4 card hands saw kills on: 4, 4, 5, 6, 7
It's all small sample sizes but it does match up with my gut feeling. Basically, once an engine was down SV would smooth things out and make sure you could close the game in a turn or so. It also helped alleviate mana screw concerns if I could cast it. However, the SV is no substitute for having an engine to begin with.
I'll try running some more test games with a new mulligan rule of pitching 7 card SV-only hands. Besides testing out deckbuilding tweaks I plan to test for resiliency by running goldfish+ tests that assume the first engine dies at instant speed.
In other news, we Developing Competitive now, boyz.
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Vorthos-y Johnny. All will be One
Modern - Cheeri0s (building), Belcher (building), Lantern (building), UW Control (building)
RIP Magic Duels. Wizards will regret what they did to you.
I'm considering picking up Cheerios, as it fits my playstyle very well. I love how the deck plays out, and I'm looking forward to eventually picking up the rest of the pieces I need. My biggest concern with the deck is having itself fizzle out or just not drawing the paladin / sram right away, and having the deck lose to itself. In practice, how often does that happen to you in-game? Maximizing consistency I would think is key, but I'm by no means an expert.
Depends what you mean by lose to itself. If you mean having literal nothing and not being able to win without the opponent doing anything, it's rare. If you mean they bolt your first draw engine and then you can't do anything, that happens quite a bit. If you mean that you get a guy down while the opponent is tapped out and then lose anyway, it depends on the build. The problem is that building to overcome removal (serum visions, countermagic, postmortem lunge) is in tension with building to maximize the out-of-nowhere immediate kill (max equipment and retract effects).
I do think this is by far the best deck in modern that has a chance at a turn 1 kill (and a decent chance at a turn 2 kill). I'm not sure it can be tuned to beat its bad matchups, and the bad matchups (DS Jund, DS Grixis, Grixis Delver, burn) are both really bad and really popular. Other combo decks have more soft failure modes (e.g. Storm can ritual ritual empty) where we're very all or nothing. Maybe the mentor or the bastion inventor can help out, I don't know.
By lose to itself, I generally meant, "How often do I never run into Sram / Paladin, only get one mana, or just don't draw into retracts / recalls". I tend to enjoy playing janky comob a lot, and the biggest problems I've run into weren't necessarily the opponent, but just not drawing into what I need consistently enough.
As for the "dies to removal" argument, yes, I am moderately concerned about that. But I'm hopeful that the turn 2-3 kills happen enough to the point where my opponent has to always keep mana open for removal, thus slowing their game plan down, giving me enough time to draw into a second Sram / Paladin. I definitely see what you mean though with the building to overcome removal though.
My meta is pretty heavy on burn, as well as things like affinity. There are a few Tron decks, one or two Lantern Control decks, a cool Bant homebrew that reminds me of Podless Meliria / CoCo, a few combo (Eggs, Necrotic Ooze) and infect decks. There are no Jund decks in my local area, and only one death shadow.
Interesting statistics, I'll have to take another look at them, and see. Lots of testing to do. I'm still trying to pick up my Opals... ugh. I'll get there sometime
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MODERN GBCombo ElvesBG UExtra TurnsU UWCheeriosWU
EDH RGURiku of Two ReflectionsRGU (Combo / Creature Toolbox) BWKarlov of the Ghost CouncilWB (Control / Aggro) GWSelvala, Explorer ReturnedWG (Goodstuff) RUWNarset, Enlightened MasterWUR (Superfriends)
Mulligans to oblivion are less than 10% of games. You want to mulligan any hand that lacks a draw engine unless it is a 5 (or maybe 6) that has a serum visions you can immediately cast. If you have a draw engine I personally only mulligan if you are more than one card away from casting it (e.g. keep Sram + SSG or either + mox opal).
When things go right the way the combo plays out is that you play your first draw engine and play equipment to draw into the next one. You then either cast the second engine and win right away or pass and cast the second engine the next turn and win then. One reason I personally favor the SSG build is that it makes it easier to drop a second engine during your combo turn and win immediately. Obviously the whole thing gets a lot tougher if your first dude dies at instant speed.
You can swipe games against burn when they get impatient and tap out for something that isn't an eidolon. A lot of people don't anticipate a turn 3 kill from an empty board. You will have a good matchup against anybody looking for a pure race. Tron is difficult to lose to unless they hit turn 3 karn or an early chalice on 0. Even turn 3 Karn is beatable if you have a good hand.
By lose to itself, I generally meant, "How often do I never run into Sram / Paladin, only get one mana, or just don't draw into retracts / recalls". I tend to enjoy playing janky comob a lot, and the biggest problems I've run into weren't necessarily the opponent, but just not drawing into what I need consistently enough.
As for the "dies to removal" argument, yes, I am moderately concerned about that. But I'm hopeful that the turn 2-3 kills happen enough to the point where my opponent has to always keep mana open for removal, thus slowing their game plan down, giving me enough time to draw into a second Sram / Paladin. I definitely see what you mean though with the building to overcome removal though.
My meta is pretty heavy on burn, as well as things like affinity. There are a few Tron decks, one or two Lantern Control decks, a cool Bant homebrew that reminds me of Podless Meliria / CoCo, a few combo (Eggs, Necrotic Ooze) and infect decks. There are no Jund decks in my local area, and only one death shadow.
Interesting statistics, I'll have to take another look at them, and see. Lots of testing to do. I'm still trying to pick up my Opals... ugh. I'll get there sometime
Generally the different good MD builds lose to themselves between 5-10% of the time due to not having the right blend of cards to start comboing. Obvisously the more cantrips you run the less this is a problem. To stick in the 4-6% failure rate I have found 2-5 cantrips the right number in testing. If you only have 2 you need to be prepped with Kingpins as they also help you dig. If your meta is burn/aggro heavy then they are wonderful MD as well.
If you want resilience to removal in the main I recommend boosting the numbers of Noxious Revival, as they not only recover your engines, but help consistency greatly if you don't have to recover engines by getting retracts or fetches back. They aren't quite as good as serum visions at setting your deck up for early kills, in general I lost about 2-3% of the T2/T3 kills, but it does give you the ability to recover from our bad match-ups more consistently.
Looking at the results, the best placing Cheeri0s decks are all UWr, and it looks like we are running into the most trouble in Day 2s against the increased DS Jund concentration. Based on this, I want to drop the core list down to 19 equipment from 20, drop the Hurkyl's Recall, and maybe drop 1 Song. This frees up three slots for three threats, or 2 threats and +1 SV.
Has anyone tried Thopter Foundry against DS Jund? I'm very tempted. It bombos hard with Retract, but attacks DS Jund on three axes simultaneously: chumping Goyfs and Shadows, gaining life, and presenting an aerial clock. K Command ruins your day, but the other removal doesn't hit Foundry.
For those splashing black, are you doing it with Foundry? Or are you going UWb with no way to hardcast Grapeshot outside of Opal?
This was at 210 games (I went over 200 due to miscounting).
Fizzle past T7: 3%
Fizzle rate over-all: 14%
This shows that this build generally got itself going again consistently as most fizzles still ended up with T4/5 kills rather than later.
Echoing Truth saved me from a fizzle in 3% of games. Having a MD answer to permanent threats/leylines frees up a spot in the SB and helps in the eidolon/thalia scenarios.
Sram's legendary status has been a hindrance in 7% of games. It isn't a good enough reason not to have 4, but knowing how often it happens may help in the future. I ran a 3 Sram set out of curiosity and it's effects trickle down to cause an increase of over 110% T7+ games. Bleah.
Over-all I liked the Noxious Revival increase. I had many single engine wins with just 3 or 4 cherri0s. The life cost was high in those, but you just have to keep over 3 life if they definitely run the bolts, although if they had them I am sure the engine would already be eliminated.
I know many are thinking "Why doesn't this dude run 4 Serum Visions?" The answer is that there are cards that address our issues more effectively if perhaps in a more narrow scope, and I want to find out how much efficiency we lose by running those instead. Serum Visions does the best at "fixing" our current and future situations and creating consistency in our strategy, and Slapping Tron or aggro around 80-90% of the time G1 is nice, but if we can net more total wins through day 2 by improving our trouble match-ups like DS Jund then I think we should sacrifice some of those Tron wins for a higher over-all win-percentage against a full spectrum meta.
Looking at the results, the best placing Cheeri0s decks are all UWr, and it looks like we are running into the most trouble in Day 2s against the increased DS Jund concentration. Based on this, I want to drop the core list down to 19 equipment from 20, drop the Hurkyl's Recall, and maybe drop 1 Song. This frees up three slots for three threats, or 2 threats and +1 SV.
Has anyone tried Thopter Foundry against DS Jund? I'm very tempted. It bombos hard with Retract, but attacks DS Jund on three axes simultaneously: chumping Goyfs and Shadows, gaining life, and presenting an aerial clock. K Command ruins your day, but the other removal doesn't hit Foundry.
For those splashing black, are you doing it with Foundry? Or are you going UWb with no way to hardcast Grapeshot outside of Opal?
Gemstone Mines have done the trick for me along with paradise mantle swapping. I have tracked how often the gemstones get used up and cause a problem and it is below half a percent when running 4. That was in the 5 discard builds where I needed black T1. With the noxious build I only need 2. The only time anyone runs stony silence is post board, and if they are running a deck that can play it you can bet wear//tear is coming in from the side along with echoing truth, although 1 ET is already MD.
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Yeah for starters in testing I was on inquisition (having to shock more often for black I didn't want to run ts) I dropped sv/swan. However with the "back up plan" main inquisition seemed to matter less g1. I've now played 8 matches and the demon does matter. A lot of spots monk wouldn't have been better because he tends to come down after trying to go off. Obviously still very early in testing however with that said I'm moving to just 2 main and 2 kingpin main now on top of bringing 2 visions back in. My test list is as follows.
4 Accorder's Shield
4 Bone Saw
4 Cathar's Shield
1 Golem-Skin Gauntlets
4 Mox Opal
4 Paradise Mantle
4 Spidersilk Net
Creature (12)
2 Contraband Kingpin
4 Puresteel Paladin
4 Sram, Senior Edificer
2 Herald of Anguish
1 Noxious Revival
4 Retract
Sorcery (3)
1 Grapeshot
2 Serum Visions
Land (15)
1 Concealed Courtyard
3 Flooded Strand
2 Godless Shrine
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Marsh Flats
2 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Echoing Truth
3 Fatal Push
3 Fragmentize
1 Herald of Anguish
4 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Silence
In my black list I ditched the foundry. It caused more problems than it helped. sticking 2 gemstone mines will help consistency quite a bit for your T1.
Everyone runs stony so that's the only reason I still play one. When I'm on the draw I I board it out when facing a deck I don't fear stony. That said with a new (I think decent) back up plan I might not need it as much.
If burn wasn't so prevalent right now I'd think about running some bobs to test.
Bob...seems...great! Just seeing them grumble over whether to let it live might be well worth it. Drawing extra cheeri0s for 0 life would be pretty groovy. Going to begin the testing now. With Herald MD I don't dig it, but everything else is 2 or less, so well worth it against the heavy removal MU's at least.
I'm nervous about Bob's ability to improve our current worst matchup: DS Jund. It hurts us, doesn't threaten to win the game, and isn't guaranteed to find gas. That's really risky against a deck with disruption and a fast clock. I do think Bob would be solid against decks like traditional Jund, Abzan, or Grixis, but DS Jund is a different beast.
How bad is Wind-Kin Raiders? It's on-color and generally comes down a turn earlier than Herald, but it dies to Bolt. Then again, DS Jund doesn't really play Bolt, so that's more a general weakness than a specific one for that matchup. Raiders also hits for 4 instead of 5 so it's slower, which might outweigh coming down a turn earlier than Herald.
Freejam Regent? Comes down a turn earlier than Herald and is on-color (I play a maindeck Foundry). This is playable T1 with some SSG builds too and is spectacular with Rugged Prairie. Regent doesn't die to Bolt and, with a little mana investment, actually clocks faster than Herald.
I personally think the demon has more going for it in abilities than those two. The mana investment isn't better imo if you are on ssgs. Also I don't think bob is "bad" vs ds. It's card advantage that they will use a kill spell on. Meaning one less for the rest of our enablers. It also can just block if we need it to.
I'm considering picking up Cheerios, as it fits my playstyle very well. I love how the deck plays out, and I'm looking forward to eventually picking up the rest of the pieces I need. My biggest concern with the deck is having itself fizzle out or just not drawing the paladin / sram right away, and having the deck lose to itself. In practice, how often does that happen to you in-game? Maximizing consistency I would think is key, but I'm by no means an expert.
I'm definitely learning some of the sequencing, and I'm trying to decide what kind of gameplan I want. For those of you testing the improvise creatures, how do you find that they work? What about the salvage titan? Do you ever find that they have too slow of a clock, wheras grapeshot can just one shot them? What situations have they been helpful / worth having for you? Also, I've seen some discussion on Mentor. It seems to me like mentor might kinda slow things down and be a bit clunky, but I've not really tested it much, still trying to get used to my current "build", and get sequencing right.
I look forward to joining in the discussions, and seeing where this deck goes.
MODERN
GBCombo ElvesBG
UExtra TurnsU
UWCheeriosWU
EDH
RGURiku of Two ReflectionsRGU (Combo / Creature Toolbox)
BWKarlov of the Ghost CouncilWB (Control / Aggro)
GWSelvala, Explorer ReturnedWG (Goodstuff)
RUWNarset, Enlightened MasterWUR (Superfriends)
In other news, we Developing Competitive now, boyz.
Modern - Cheeri0s (building), Belcher (building), Lantern (building), UW Control (building)
RIP Magic Duels. Wizards will regret what they did to you.
Depends what you mean by lose to itself. If you mean having literal nothing and not being able to win without the opponent doing anything, it's rare. If you mean they bolt your first draw engine and then you can't do anything, that happens quite a bit. If you mean that you get a guy down while the opponent is tapped out and then lose anyway, it depends on the build. The problem is that building to overcome removal (serum visions, countermagic, postmortem lunge) is in tension with building to maximize the out-of-nowhere immediate kill (max equipment and retract effects).
I do think this is by far the best deck in modern that has a chance at a turn 1 kill (and a decent chance at a turn 2 kill). I'm not sure it can be tuned to beat its bad matchups, and the bad matchups (DS Jund, DS Grixis, Grixis Delver, burn) are both really bad and really popular. Other combo decks have more soft failure modes (e.g. Storm can ritual ritual empty) where we're very all or nothing. Maybe the mentor or the bastion inventor can help out, I don't know.
As for the "dies to removal" argument, yes, I am moderately concerned about that. But I'm hopeful that the turn 2-3 kills happen enough to the point where my opponent has to always keep mana open for removal, thus slowing their game plan down, giving me enough time to draw into a second Sram / Paladin. I definitely see what you mean though with the building to overcome removal though.
My meta is pretty heavy on burn, as well as things like affinity. There are a few Tron decks, one or two Lantern Control decks, a cool Bant homebrew that reminds me of Podless Meliria / CoCo, a few combo (Eggs, Necrotic Ooze) and infect decks. There are no Jund decks in my local area, and only one death shadow.
Interesting statistics, I'll have to take another look at them, and see. Lots of testing to do. I'm still trying to pick up my Opals... ugh. I'll get there sometime
MODERN
GBCombo ElvesBG
UExtra TurnsU
UWCheeriosWU
EDH
RGURiku of Two ReflectionsRGU (Combo / Creature Toolbox)
BWKarlov of the Ghost CouncilWB (Control / Aggro)
GWSelvala, Explorer ReturnedWG (Goodstuff)
RUWNarset, Enlightened MasterWUR (Superfriends)
When things go right the way the combo plays out is that you play your first draw engine and play equipment to draw into the next one. You then either cast the second engine and win right away or pass and cast the second engine the next turn and win then. One reason I personally favor the SSG build is that it makes it easier to drop a second engine during your combo turn and win immediately. Obviously the whole thing gets a lot tougher if your first dude dies at instant speed.
You can swipe games against burn when they get impatient and tap out for something that isn't an eidolon. A lot of people don't anticipate a turn 3 kill from an empty board. You will have a good matchup against anybody looking for a pure race. Tron is difficult to lose to unless they hit turn 3 karn or an early chalice on 0. Even turn 3 Karn is beatable if you have a good hand.
Generally the different good MD builds lose to themselves between 5-10% of the time due to not having the right blend of cards to start comboing. Obvisously the more cantrips you run the less this is a problem. To stick in the 4-6% failure rate I have found 2-5 cantrips the right number in testing. If you only have 2 you need to be prepped with Kingpins as they also help you dig. If your meta is burn/aggro heavy then they are wonderful MD as well.
If you want resilience to removal in the main I recommend boosting the numbers of Noxious Revival, as they not only recover your engines, but help consistency greatly if you don't have to recover engines by getting retracts or fetches back. They aren't quite as good as serum visions at setting your deck up for early kills, in general I lost about 2-3% of the T2/T3 kills, but it does give you the ability to recover from our bad match-ups more consistently.
Has anyone tried Thopter Foundry against DS Jund? I'm very tempted. It bombos hard with Retract, but attacks DS Jund on three axes simultaneously: chumping Goyfs and Shadows, gaining life, and presenting an aerial clock. K Command ruins your day, but the other removal doesn't hit Foundry.
For those splashing black, are you doing it with Foundry? Or are you going UWb with no way to hardcast Grapeshot outside of Opal?
2 Serum Visions
1 Echoing Truth
4 Noxious Revival
18 Cheeri0s
2 KingPin
8 Engines
4 Retract
1 Hurkyl's
15 Land
4 Opal
1 Grapeshot
T1 0%
T2 3.5%
T3 47.5%
T4 21%
T5 15%
T6 6.5%
T7+ 6.5%
This was at 210 games (I went over 200 due to miscounting).
Fizzle past T7: 3%
Fizzle rate over-all: 14%
This shows that this build generally got itself going again consistently as most fizzles still ended up with T4/5 kills rather than later.
Echoing Truth saved me from a fizzle in 3% of games. Having a MD answer to permanent threats/leylines frees up a spot in the SB and helps in the eidolon/thalia scenarios.
Sram's legendary status has been a hindrance in 7% of games. It isn't a good enough reason not to have 4, but knowing how often it happens may help in the future. I ran a 3 Sram set out of curiosity and it's effects trickle down to cause an increase of over 110% T7+ games. Bleah.
Over-all I liked the Noxious Revival increase. I had many single engine wins with just 3 or 4 cherri0s. The life cost was high in those, but you just have to keep over 3 life if they definitely run the bolts, although if they had them I am sure the engine would already be eliminated.
I know many are thinking "Why doesn't this dude run 4 Serum Visions?" The answer is that there are cards that address our issues more effectively if perhaps in a more narrow scope, and I want to find out how much efficiency we lose by running those instead. Serum Visions does the best at "fixing" our current and future situations and creating consistency in our strategy, and Slapping Tron or aggro around 80-90% of the time G1 is nice, but if we can net more total wins through day 2 by improving our trouble match-ups like DS Jund then I think we should sacrifice some of those Tron wins for a higher over-all win-percentage against a full spectrum meta.
Gemstone Mines have done the trick for me along with paradise mantle swapping. I have tracked how often the gemstones get used up and cause a problem and it is below half a percent when running 4. That was in the 5 discard builds where I needed black T1. With the noxious build I only need 2. The only time anyone runs stony silence is post board, and if they are running a deck that can play it you can bet wear//tear is coming in from the side along with echoing truth, although 1 ET is already MD.