If you don't understand what it does . . . it . . . well basically, gives your opponent the best creature from the top 10 cards of your library and gives you the second best card from the top of your library.
However, it combos well with the following three cards: Flickerwisp, Glimmerpoint Stag and Brooding Saurian. So even knowing it is a bad card, I was interested in seeing if we can make the above combos work. Let's get brewing!
With those cards, it turns into an A/B combo. You need to hit A (a big guy) and a B (the above combo cards) in the top 10 cards of your library, for you to win. To have a 90% chance to get at least 1 of A and at least 1 of B, you need to have about a 95% chance for each individually. That would be about 14 of each card. 11 of each gets you a ~80% chance to hit A/B. 9 of each gets you a ~70% chance to hit A/B. At the moment I was thinking of aiming for ~80% of winning as soon as you play Dubious Challenge.
So far we have the following:
11 Big Guys
11 "Combo" creatures
4 Dubious Challenge
Now . . . since we are a combo deck, we should be hoping to power out Dubious Challenge as fast as possible, so we should feel free to run some acceleration. Moreover, it helps that most acceleration is in green already. The fastest way we can get it out would be aiming for turn 2, With a turn 1 land into a Mana Dork and a turn 2 land into accel. Since we are aiming for around 80% consistency across the board, at the moment we would need to run around 11 mana dorks, 10 accel, and around 15 lands. (Note obviously none of these numbers will last. . . i'm just going through the process).
So, so far our hypothetical deck is:
19 Lands
11 Big Guys
11 "Combo" creatures
11 Mana Dorks
10 Accel
4 Dubious Challenge
But. . . here is a thought . . . since we are already running so much accel, and since we have a deck that will already gum up our hand with Big Guys . . . why not run Through the Breach? It will let us dish out our big guys as early as turn 2/3 and make us less reliant on drawing Dubious challenge. Another thought, is since Emrakul is almost definitely one of our big guys, is to run Nahiri, the Harbinger as another win condition, and as a way to filter through the deck. Let's assume that we want to cast at least 1 of the Dubious challenge/through the breach/Nahari on turn 3. . .the total of those cards for 80% should be around 9. So thus far we have this mess:
19 Lands
11 Big Guys
11 "Combo" creatures
11 Mana Dorks
10 Accel
9 Dubious Challenge/ Nahari, the harbinger/Through the breach
So with that as a starting base, we need to remove 8 cards. No matter what we remove, we are going to lower some percentages. Just as a benchmark, let's aim for 70% instead of 80% across the board. That would leave us with:
16 Lands
9 Big Guys
9 "Combo" creatures
9 Mana Dorks
8 Accel
7 Dubious Challenge/ Nahari, the harbinger/Through the breach
That actually gives us plenty of room to work with, and actually gives us 2 free flex spots. Now we need to discuss which big guys, which "combo" creatures, which mana dorks, accel, etc. While most of those are obvious, I believe discussing the combo creatures and the combo card division to be the most pertinent. Since Dubious challenge should win you the game 70% of the time you cast it, I think it enters the deck list as a 4 of. So far, using the 1 additional flex spot, I will go with a 2/2 split with Nahri and Through the breach. The best combo creature isn't the lizard, but Flickerwisp and Glimmerpoint Stag, since the lizard can be removed before eot.
So the Dubious Modern Deck looks like this at the moment
The above is an untested and rough list of a deck that uses a bad card. The deck has no protection whatsoever. However, it does have a 1 card "combo" that will get a "big guy" (TM) out around turn 2 pretty consistently. Is that worth exploring? Up to you.
Nahiri might not be a good choice either; it's not going to be easy to keep her alive to ultimate if the Dubious plan fails (or never shows up). If the Dubious plan succeeds then she's unnecessary.
Modern: -UBG Lantern Control-GW or RG or R Tron - G Stompy - C KCI Combo-
EDH: -UG Ezuri-UGZegana-BRMogis-WUBRGRamos-WBREdgar-URLocust God-WUBRBreya-BMacar-WUBrago-WEvra-
Goldfishing hasn't been too promising. I'm thinking some number of Gemstone Caverns and Spoils of the Vault + black mana may be in the cards. You really need to have a dubious + ramp in hand for this to work.
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Modern: -UBG Lantern Control-GW or RG or R Tron - G Stompy - C KCI Combo-
EDH: -UG Ezuri-UGZegana-BRMogis-WUBRGRamos-WBREdgar-URLocust God-WUBRBreya-BMacar-WUBrago-WEvra-
I would switch Ulamog, the ceaseless hunger and Emrakul, the promised end for something more threatening or more value when it attacks. Those two get a lot of the their value from their cast triggers and not being able to activate those means old ulamog or Boonweaver Giant + Eldrazi Conscription are probably scarier when they're on the battlefield. Blightsteel Colossus isn't bad either but if it he gets blocked and you breached him in you aren't getting much value.
Summoning Trap might be solid since you have a decent shot at hitting a big threat.
Maybe play a singleton or two Rancor to put on Boonweaver initially when it gets flickered and then when it comes back into play at EoT you go get Eldrazi Conscription. Then Rancor goes to your hand. Any other Auras work like rancor for this?
Oooh, Glistening Oil....though double black casting cost might be asking a lot.
Modern: -UBG Lantern Control-GW or RG or R Tron - G Stompy - C KCI Combo-
EDH: -UG Ezuri-UGZegana-BRMogis-WUBRGRamos-WBREdgar-URLocust God-WUBRBreya-BMacar-WUBrago-WEvra-
The issue with Congregation is that this then becomes a two-card combo. (And yes that two card combo is technically 6 mana . . . GGW for congregation - search up SSG, Wisp and Emrakul, draw SSG, use SSG to cast Dubious, Get Emmy.
But is a 6 mana two card combo worth? Not sure.
The interesting thing about Dubious is that it is possible to treat it like a 1 card combo. A 1 card combo that creates almost impossible deck designs.
Another interesting thing, is that you could fill this deck with Kaladesh's other 1 card combo. That is . . . Madcap Emperium. 1-2 Emperium's could fit into the deck's "big guy" spots, and Madcap can replace Nahari.
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Dubious Challenge is a bad card.
If you don't understand what it does . . . it . . . well basically, gives your opponent the best creature from the top 10 cards of your library and gives you the second best card from the top of your library.
However, it combos well with the following three cards: Flickerwisp, Glimmerpoint Stag and Brooding Saurian. So even knowing it is a bad card, I was interested in seeing if we can make the above combos work. Let's get brewing!
With those cards, it turns into an A/B combo. You need to hit A (a big guy) and a B (the above combo cards) in the top 10 cards of your library, for you to win. To have a 90% chance to get at least 1 of A and at least 1 of B, you need to have about a 95% chance for each individually. That would be about 14 of each card. 11 of each gets you a ~80% chance to hit A/B. 9 of each gets you a ~70% chance to hit A/B. At the moment I was thinking of aiming for ~80% of winning as soon as you play Dubious Challenge.
So far we have the following:
11 Big Guys
11 "Combo" creatures
4 Dubious Challenge
Now . . . since we are a combo deck, we should be hoping to power out Dubious Challenge as fast as possible, so we should feel free to run some acceleration. Moreover, it helps that most acceleration is in green already. The fastest way we can get it out would be aiming for turn 2, With a turn 1 land into a Mana Dork and a turn 2 land into accel. Since we are aiming for around 80% consistency across the board, at the moment we would need to run around 11 mana dorks, 10 accel, and around 15 lands. (Note obviously none of these numbers will last. . . i'm just going through the process).
So, so far our hypothetical deck is:
19 Lands
11 Big Guys
11 "Combo" creatures
11 Mana Dorks
10 Accel
4 Dubious Challenge
But. . . here is a thought . . . since we are already running so much accel, and since we have a deck that will already gum up our hand with Big Guys . . . why not run Through the Breach? It will let us dish out our big guys as early as turn 2/3 and make us less reliant on drawing Dubious challenge. Another thought, is since Emrakul is almost definitely one of our big guys, is to run Nahiri, the Harbinger as another win condition, and as a way to filter through the deck. Let's assume that we want to cast at least 1 of the Dubious challenge/through the breach/Nahari on turn 3. . .the total of those cards for 80% should be around 9. So thus far we have this mess:
19 Lands
11 Big Guys
11 "Combo" creatures
11 Mana Dorks
10 Accel
9 Dubious Challenge/ Nahari, the harbinger/Through the breach
So with that as a starting base, we need to remove 8 cards. No matter what we remove, we are going to lower some percentages. Just as a benchmark, let's aim for 70% instead of 80% across the board. That would leave us with:
16 Lands
9 Big Guys
9 "Combo" creatures
9 Mana Dorks
8 Accel
7 Dubious Challenge/ Nahari, the harbinger/Through the breach
That actually gives us plenty of room to work with, and actually gives us 2 free flex spots. Now we need to discuss which big guys, which "combo" creatures, which mana dorks, accel, etc. While most of those are obvious, I believe discussing the combo creatures and the combo card division to be the most pertinent. Since Dubious challenge should win you the game 70% of the time you cast it, I think it enters the deck list as a 4 of. So far, using the 1 additional flex spot, I will go with a 2/2 split with Nahri and Through the breach. The best combo creature isn't the lizard, but Flickerwisp and Glimmerpoint Stag, since the lizard can be removed before eot.
So the Dubious Modern Deck looks like this at the moment
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Flicker Wisp
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Glimmerpoint Stag
2 Worldspine Wurm
2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
2 Brooding Saurian
1 Avacyn's Pilgrim
1 Emrakul, the Promised End
4 Desperate Ritual
2 Nahari, the harbinger
2 Through the breach
16 Lands
The above is an untested and rough list of a deck that uses a bad card. The deck has no protection whatsoever. However, it does have a 1 card "combo" that will get a "big guy" (TM) out around turn 2 pretty consistently. Is that worth exploring? Up to you.
Some number of Boseiju, Who Shelters All may be called for.
Not too sure about Brooding Saurian. That's one Path to Exile away from just completely hosing you.
Nahiri might not be a good choice either; it's not going to be easy to keep her alive to ultimate if the Dubious plan fails (or never shows up). If the Dubious plan succeeds then she's unnecessary.
EDH: -UG Ezuri-UGZegana-BRMogis-WUBRGRamos-WBREdgar-URLocust God-WUBRBreya-BMacar-WUBrago-WEvra-
EDH: -UG Ezuri-UGZegana-BRMogis-WUBRGRamos-WBREdgar-URLocust God-WUBRBreya-BMacar-WUBrago-WEvra-
Summoning Trap might be solid since you have a decent shot at hitting a big threat.
Oooh, Glistening Oil....though double black casting cost might be asking a lot.
Spirit Loop
Actually, nm, this isn't required as if they choose Boonweaver they would search their library for an enchantment.
EDH: -UG Ezuri-UGZegana-BRMogis-WUBRGRamos-WBREdgar-URLocust God-WUBRBreya-BMacar-WUBrago-WEvra-
But is a 6 mana two card combo worth? Not sure.
The interesting thing about Dubious is that it is possible to treat it like a 1 card combo. A 1 card combo that creates almost impossible deck designs.
Another interesting thing, is that you could fill this deck with Kaladesh's other 1 card combo. That is . . . Madcap Emperium. 1-2 Emperium's could fit into the deck's "big guy" spots, and Madcap can replace Nahari.