I like echoing truth as an answer to lingering souls, and I've been very happy with the bounce mode on simic charm and with vapor snag for handling both early aggression and things too big for abrupt decay. The thing is, I think lingering souls is one of the only reasons to run truth over those other option and it isnt widespread enough for me to really want to cough up a maindeck slot on. I've got explosives and golgari charm in the sideboard for matchups where I see souls.
One of the main threats I've had trouble dealing with efficiently is wurmcoil engine - another good reason for echoing truth (or maelstrom pulse) as well as a reason to not run things like disfigure or go for the throat. Right now my hard removal is murderous cut and a pulse, but I can almost feel liliana of the veil creeping back into my list.
Otherwise I can say that 4x bauble 4x probe is too much cantripping. I'm at 3/3 and can see going down to 2/2 pretty easily or even 3/1 split.
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Modern
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
I've come back with similar conclusions re: Bitterblossom. Great card, but too slow. I'm pretty high in Engineered Explosives right now as the meta seems to be getting smaller and swarmier - running 3 copies in the SB and it seems to have some good applications: Affinity / Fish on 2, Elves / Zoo style aggro on 1, Lingering Souls and Empty thr Warrens tokens on 0 - otherwise it is pretty versatile (albeit clunky) removal for problematic permanents stuff.
I'm still running 3 copies of Spell Snare and it is either great (Goyf, Bob, Ravager, Snapcaster, Plating) or abysmal (any Vial and/or Cavern of Souls decks).
Monastery Siege is there mainly against burn and removal heavy Jund/Abzan decks. Making their spells cost two more to target you or your permanents slows their game plan down enough for you to close things out. It is a little slow, but really not bad at what you want it for and never dead. Against anything else, it is a pseudo Phyrexian Arena, generating not card advantage, but selection with no cost beyond the three mana up front. It has been very good against burn, grixis, jund, and many other slower matchups. I would run more, but the diminishing returns are huge for multiples, and it is slow game one against combo, although it can help find sideboarded hate games two or three after the disruption has slowed their development.
Bitter Blossom has been amazing in the matchups you want it in, and those are growing in the meta from what I see. It is bad against burn but does provide a durable threat against non B/G removal heavy decks. I have since moved it to the board, however, just to streamline the main.
Disfigure is also a card that does so much work, but I see no one playing. It is the closest thing to a bolt Sultai can run, and is much stronger than vapor snag from our testing. I run two main now, and keep looking for ways to squeeze in a third. The card I am slowly turning sour on in this list is Spell Snare. Every answer in this deck needs to be flexible, and just as the format is minimizing Abrupt Decay's impact, it is doing the same to Spell Snare. This hurts Snare so much more since it is reactive.
In my testing so far versus:
Control - I'm 7-0 (14-2 in games)
Combo - I'm 7-2 (15-6 in games)
Midrange - I'm 3-0 (6-1 in games)
Aggro - I'm 5-11 (14-25 in games)
I'm dominating in non Aggro matchups. Aggro matchups are a lot harder. I have found Echoing Truth to over perform so far. So much so that I main deck one over a Simic Charm as it can pair with Disrupting Shoal for 2 just the same, and it can bounce any permanent, not just a creature. I find a lot of aggro decks will hit you with two of the same creatures at times and it can be a great 2 for 1 at attacks delaying until our fatties can take over. So I'm on one in the main and one in the side. It can reset Æther Vial, bounce a Blood Moon long enough to cast a delve creature or even to hold up counter magic. I am definitely singing this card's praises so far.
My only other change to the main was removing a Breeding Pool and putting in a Forest.
Affinity is a very close but very tough matchup I've found. I'm 0-4 in the matchup (2-8 in games) and at this point I have to commit to putting in a Hurkyl's Recall for the board. I feel like I lose to Affinity the turn before I deal lethal almost every time, but that's the nature of the beast. That change, along with the extra Echoing Truth and Vapor Snag (see below) should help improve the matchup I suspect.
Finally, I've added one Vapor Snag. As mentioned in previous posts this is good against aggro as it helps with the delay tactic we need, but it also has the power to bounce something like a Prime Time, or Gurmag Angler for a big tempo advantage...especially right after they empty the graveyard for it. I really try to diversify my sideboard cards in terms of the matchups they are good in and this can play against Splinter Twin, Amulet, has game against Wurmcoil Engine, while also being a big tempo setback against cards you need to commit to like Scavenging Ooze, Arcbound Ravager or cards that have been Ravaged by it. Opponent chords in an Elvish Archdruid, or Æther Vial's in a lord at combat to nail you after blockers...bounce it and block profitably. Opponent brings in a Lord of Atlantis or an Elvish Champion looking to walk past your defenders, bounce it and make their day sad. This effect is really great in this deck, and it's possible I want two Vapor Snag and one Echoing Truth, but time will tell with that.
Anyway, that's where I am at this point. I'm going to try and jam some more matches this week, and with any luck hit up another daily Thursday night. Speaking of, I played in a daily this weekend that didn't go very great. 2-0 versus Jund round 1, round two 0-2 versus Affinity and then 1-2 versus either Naya Zoo or Burn splashing for Wild Nacatl. Round 4 I got a bye so I played a Tourney Room match versus Grixis Delver that I 2-0'ed. It's just that darn aggro, but I feel like we're getting closer.
I really think Yasova Dragonclaw is just trying to hard. It is not must answer as they just block it and trade and it can only get creatures smaller than it's own power which in our deck means it can only steal a creature power 3 or less.
As for Set Adrift it seems way to expensive and sorcery speed for what it does. I understand setting them back a draw is better than returning it to their hand, but I don't think it is good enough to warrant eating 5 cards out of the graveyard. Conceptually putting cards on top of their library however is something worth looking into.
So I went looking for more Set Adrift type effects and while looking I found an interesting possible removal spell in Reality Shift. It's the exile piece, not terribly common in blue, that makes it stand out. I'm not certain it is particularly great against aggro, but I do wonder if it might be better in the deck than something like Go for the Throat due to its flexibility in nearly any matchup. While it definitely gives you opponent a vanilla 2/2 with some potential upside, usually a 2/2 isn't very threatening to us. While it is more of a tempo delay against aggro decks, the upside versus something like Wurmcoil Engine or a regenerate creature is quite relevant. Also it can be pitched to Disrupting Shoal which is always an upside...for those running Shoal.
As for Set Adrift type effects at instant speed we really only have two options. First is Whirlpool Whelm which is a more expensive Vapor Snag with the potential upside of putting the creature on top of the library. Since our deck is so cheap though I feel we'd fall on the bad end of this most of the time, and it also provides our opponents card filtering. All in all I feel this is unplayable. The other option was Whisk Away which is just to expensive for the effect. The fact that Set Adrift can be hit for one or two is relevant but I almost wonder if we're going to be running Sorcery speed if Void Snare wouldn't just be better so you don't waste your graveyard. UR Delver had a bit more velocity and was geared more to getting wide and pairing with burn so I can see the appeal more there than here.
Disfigure - on the bubble. There are games I absolutely wish I had it when opponent lays a t1 delver or goblin guide or t2 dark confidant or voice of resurgence, and times it would swing combat in my favour (i.e. when I have 4/5 goyf and they have 5/5 angler), but when its bad its terrible, and when its bad abrupt decay is usually bad too (e.g. tron).
Monastery siege - nope. There's no way this card does enough to earn a slot. This deck needs max versatility and max impact on every card as we have minimal CA and no combo and no especially fast clock. I'm frequently hellbent when I win.
# of delve guys - I'm up to 7 delves: 4 mandril 2 tasigur 1 murderous cut to support 4 stubborn denials. Being able to recover from the first 1-2 4 power creatures biting the dust is critical. Although I'm pretty sure I should cut back by 1 of these.
Echoing truth - It costs the same as abrupt decay so if you're running this instead it must be for tokens or for things with cmc > 4. What cards are those? And doesn't vapor snag or maelstrom pulse just do it better?
Liliana - I'm back on 2 maindeck for now, but she does strain the mana base some especially when darkslicks are half of your black sources. Not drawing a darkslick means fetching two black sources which can be painful.
Yasova - I was actually looking for some other 4 power cheap creature that doesn't use the graveyard to add some redundancy - worth testing esp since I run 4x denial maindeck. Not sure how often we want that ability, as I find I usually can't evne use tasigurs ability at opp EoT because I need to leave mana up for snap-denial etc in case they path.
go for the throat - not being able to hit wurmcoil engine is kind of a big deal as its one of the big creatures our hard removal should help us handle. I'm on liliana instead of this or dismember for that reason.
Set adrift - there is pretty much no way running this over murderous cut is correct.
Reality shift - it does deal with nuisances like wurmcoil, finks, and voice but I'm not sure its actually better than just vapor snagging those cards for half the cost.
Mutagenic growth - I haven't done much testing with it but I do feel this card has potential. It conflicts with our needing every card to be valid in the majority of situations, but it lets us get ferocious online on a snapcaster or flipped delver "for free" when we need our denial to counter something, it wins goyf wars, with a snapcaster it can be 1U+4 life to deal an additional 4 dmg at instant speed, and it protects flipped delver from bolts. It even saves tasigur from "bolt bolt". All that being said, when you're losing it's going to look pretty bad as a topdeck.
Results from 18 man tonight - 2-2. Some bad luck and bad matchups basically. I did fold a bit early in g3 vs the mardu deck. I was tilted and scooped, revealing top card as golgari charm which would have wiped his board except for the tasigur. Don't think it mattered though.
Round 1: 2-0 vs Jund
G1: he slow-rolls his olivia around my mana leak properly, but on critical turn punts. I have 4/5 goyf, 4/4 mandril, 1/1 delver up against his olivia and know he has finks in hand. He's at 4 life. He pings the delver, then pings the mandril and casts bolt which I stubborn denial. Can no longer cast finks, takes exacties on the goyf+mandril swing espite live olivia :S
G2: I t0 leyline of the void he t1 IoK's my serum - I beat down with a 3/4 goyf basically the entire game - a second goyf eats terminate, his goyf gets deathmarked and his huntmaster gets snap-deathmarked. He t4 curse of death's hold t5 hardcast leyline of the void so the slow ass 3/4 goyf just eventually got there through all the crap.
Round 2: 0-2 vs GR tron
G1: mull to 6, keep 0 lander 2 git probe on the draw. Make first land drop, do not make 2nd, turn 3 karn gg.
G2: He gets tron but has no action besides an ulamog. I have goyf+mandril+4-counter liliana out and hurkylls recall i hand when he casts ulamog. Ulamog blasts the liliana with him at 8 life. If I draw a bounce spell the game is mine. I draw dead. I swing to bring him down to 4 losing the goyf - if he swings I'll drop to 7 and have a land and a goyf left. My hand is hurkyll's recall. He casts ugin and that's that. I check and next card is simic charm - if he had drawn dead and had to sit on the ulamog the game was mine frown emoticon
Round 3: 1-2 vs 4-colour midrange? Basically mardu pyromancer/delve with blue for thought scour.
G1: Horiffic mana screw, I almost make a game of it by decaying his pyromancer nad then going back to back lilianas against his back to back tasigurs but I'm at 8 life when he casts lingering souls and flashes it back.
G2: I t2 tasigur and he has no terminate or path nor even a souls...
G3: I keep a 5 lander with delver and snapcaster. He bolts delver t1. He young pyros t2, I vapor snag it. He misses land-drop and replays it, I snap snag it. And then I drew 2 lands and he started making land drops and resolved a tasigur. I rip back to back mandrils that meet back to back terminates. He flips his delver so I explosives for 0 to kill it (Was saving for tokens). Game ends with him at 11 and me dead.
Round 4: 2-1 vs burn
G1: he has me down to 10 on turn 3 on the play and miracles a thunderous wrath to drop me to 5, then lava spikes me to drop me to 2. I have a 4/5 goyf out. I untap, cast hooting mandrils and pass turn. He goes for molten rain which I stubborn denial. my hand has leaks and stubborn denials so there's hope - and thanks largely to him drawing 6 lands total I win after going down to 2 life on turn 3 :S
G2: I keep a 1 lander with thought scour, feed the clan, goyf, mandrils. Miss second land drop 3 turns in a row. He also only had one land, but his one land went swift-swift-spike-bolt gg.
G3: stubborn denial his t1 bump. Goyf. Snapcaster in hand, scry serum visions finding feed the clan and delta. Stack them so I can go feed, then snap-feed. He molten rains my watery grave - goyf is stuck on 3/4 so eventually I throw the snap out hoping he'll kill it and give me ferocious, but he doesn't bite. The 5 life is all I need to jump from 6 to 11 with him on rift bolt suspended + 1 card in hand. Doesn't have the mana for double-boros charm so seems safe and sure enough it gets there.
4 mandrils tonight was too many - several games I just drew a glut of delve guys - and it still didnt get me with ferocious always online (which was kind of the point of 4 mandril 2 tas). In general I built this deck to not lose to combo decks, so playing midrange tron and burn isn't exactly the dream. I can beat tron if I get early pressure with counters, but otherwise its pretty much impossible.
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Modern
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
So pretty excited about the 4-0 as it was my first 4-0. I have only participated in roughly eight or so Dailies and while I have three or four 3-1's this is my first 4-0. I wish I could tell you I solved the aggro issue I never hit what I would deem an aggro deck so hopefully I'll get to run into more of that in my next daily.
M1 - UR Twin (1-0, 2-0)
G1 - Both games were grindy, but this first one was scary as he opened with Grim Lavamancer which had me thinking burn. My T4, I Gitaxian Probe him to see he has his 4th land, two Deceiver Exarch's, a Splinter Twin and a Snapcaster Mage. I had just used my Abrupt Decay so I was quite nervous at that point. T7 he had the opening but either didn't have it or didn't make the move, and I was able to use Lily and delve fatties to take it from there...when he finally conceded before my 14th turn.
G2 - I correctly predicted he would go control (or else he just missed twin all game...you never truly know against twin). Either way it ended up being a bit of a race that I was able to win by hitting exactsies for 9 with a Goyf, Snappy and Simic Charm
M2 - Grixis Twin (2-0, 4-0)
G1 - I was able to get a Goyf and Mandirll down early and use counter magic to hold him off and get a T6 victory.
G2 - This was long and grindy, I mulled to 6. Basically he hit a T3 Bitterblossom which opened the door for me to drop a Lily. This grinded him out for several turns until he was able to produce enough flyers between the Faeries and the Pestermite's to eventually kill Lily. By then he had to start leaving a Faerie back to block 6/7 Goyf while a Mandrill kept crashing in for 4. He conceded T10 when he didn't draw anything that could handle what I had.
M3 - Grixis Twin (3-0, 6-0)
G1 - I actually thought I was playing Grixis Delver this match. Primarily because he opened with a Darkslick Shores and played a Terminate but I never saw any twin piece. I kept a fairly risky but potentially powerful hand. It had almost everything want except a dual land, the opening 7 was: Island, Thought Scour, Thought Scour, Echoing Truth, Stubborn Denial and Disrupting Shoal. T1 I Thought Scoured into a swamp which helped but not much as I drew a Mandrill. Then I missed my T3 land drop drawing a Goyf instead and didn't do anything that turn. T4 I drew Verdant Catacombs and was off to the races. Disrupting Shoal protected my Goyf at casting, Stubborn Denial a Terminate, and then Delve in Mandrill with a Mana Leak up for protection. Beat down from there.
G2 - I sided for Grixis Delver, and got off to a fast start with a T2 Tasigur backed up by Disrupting Shoal with Simic Charm at casting. Stuck a Goyf T3, and then basically beat down from here. Had a mini freak out when my opponent attempted to drop a T4 Exarch on me as I was sure to this point I wasn't playing Twin. Opponent conceded after their T5 draw missed the needed removal to extend the game.
M4 - Soul Sisters (4-0, 8-0)
G1 - He got out to a big lifegain lead, but I was able to stick a Lily and keep it alive with removal until I could get a Tasigur down to block. Opponent conceded while still above 30 life but he was on an essentially empty board (just Martyr of the Sands) with no cards in hand to my Tas and a Lily. Every card I saw was Soul Sisters.
G2 - I basically was able to just beat down early while he went on the Squadron Hawk beatdown plan. I Drown in Sorrowed 4 of them and he kind of raged on me bringing that in. It seemed good from what I had seen, but turns out he was playing a Ghostly Prison deck that just shared a lot of cards and so Drown was apparently very narrow against him but huge at that moment as I was able to attack back on my next turn for lethal.
Gratz on 4-0. Twin is an extremely favourable matchup I think (decay+counterspells+removal+good clocks that cant be bolted) so drawing that 3 times is pretty beneficial. Soul sister ghostly prison eh... uh... I would guess he got lucky in some games and just blindsided people in some games? Drown is absolutely correct if g1 you see wardens/ascendants.
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Modern
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
Definitely seems like a good matchup. So far in my 3 dailies with this deck I'm 3-1, 1-2, 4-0. The 3 losses were to Collected Naya, Naya Zoo/Burn and Affinity. I have definitely redone my sideboard for aggro since the 1-2 but we wont know until I start hitting it how it looks now.
Of course you all aren't as all in on the tempo plan as me so my experiences in large part, due to that and running Disrupting Shoal, likely make my games play less midrangey than you guys and thus may not lime up with your own experiences.
It looks like some folks playing Grixis colors are playing Vampiric Link. Durward wrote an article about it on CFB - it's primary application is to attach to a Delve fatty - (might help our swarmy aggro matchup) and it also shuts off Eidolon triggers for spells you cast, and turns the burn opponents spells from Bolts to Gut Shots and they still lose 2.
Your speed is also heavily influenced by your fetching. Virtually every hand needs a turn 1 island for scour/denial/visions/delver, but if you get a basic island then your decay/salvage are not online on t2 - so its often fetch-shock t1. T2 only gets awkward if we're now on something like visions+denial or visions+scour, where if we don't fetch another blue source we can't optimize our play. Vs an aggro deck I'm usually inclined to save the 2 life and either fetch a basic island or fetch a tapped shock. The problem is aggro/burn are when you most need that turn 2 abrupt decay for a swiftspear or eidolon.
This is why I really like the lists trying to avoid Serum Visions. It is the best cantrip in Modern but it really hurts to play it turn 1 in BUG. I'd much rather sit on a fetch turn 1 if I have to and only bolt myself if Stubborn Denial or Thought Scour seems like the right play. A Delver turn 1 is usually a 50/50 call and bolting myself isn't as tough a call if I think he'll live and give me an edge. Stubborn Denial on Summer Bloom or Thoughtseize, Thought Scour on myself if it means turn 2 Tasigur or messing up the opponent's 2 on top Serum Visions, those are the things I don't mind taking 3 damage to make happen. Drawing a card and Scrying 2 is only worth the damage if I kept a shaky hand. I'd rather just not keep that hand in the first place.
It is the best cantrip but it's not Ponder or Preordain.
It looks like some folks playing Grixis colors are playing Vampiric Link. Durward wrote an article about it on CFB - it's primary application is to attach to a Delve fatty - (might help our swarmy aggro matchup) and it also shuts off Eidolon triggers for spells you cast, and turns the burn opponents spells from Bolts to Gut Shots and they still lose 2.
I think this card has applications. Just depends on where to fit it in.
I´m starting to get cold feet on this deck. Bad´s question lingers on still: what reason is there to be in Black? Pondering to try the Temur version instead as I feel the reach is missing and the spot removal issue has been solved through Dismember and Reality Shift ( I tried it and is quite satisfied. Sort of a blue Path imo).
I just had a rough daily this week, part of it was poor play, but I've realized at this point in my bad matchups versus aggro I am to committed to trying to 1 for 1 my opponent, and thus I need to up my two for one cards. I've not played with it yet, but I'm going up to two Engineered Explosives, and two Drown in Sorrow. I also replaced Go for the Throat with Reality Shift as well. Glad to hear it worked well for you.
The reason to be in black here is Lily, Tasigur, Gurmag Angler, and Abrupt Decay. Thoughtseize, and Inquisition are great cards, but blue is what makes Delver/tempo decks tick and they're just not good enough here. Also this deck seems much much better with Disrupting Shoal in my experience as tempo is where this deck wants to be at and Thoughtseize/IoK don't help with that card. Another part of why I want blue removal like Reality Shift over black removal most of the time.
Temur is definitely better against aggro decks, and I want to try Temur out as well, but even online just to get the missing pieces is another $280, and that is only Blood Moon's, Scalding Tarn's and Huntmasters. While Temur is better against aggro, BUG is better versus Control and Combo. Certainly Control isn't big right now but Combo is no slouch. If money were no object, the meta right now is better suited to Temur and that's probably what I'd play, but money and favoritism (BUG is my favorite color combo) both have me on the BUG plan for now.
Interesting thought. The reach on occasion may be relevant if not very inefficient. Also it weakens Shoals pitch %. I wonder if a blue draw spell might be worth running instead. Perhaps Monastery Siege which helps with card quality and gy fodder, or Dictate of Kruphix for pure card quantity could be considered. Not saying I like them but in a deck designed to stick and protect a threat they might offer promise. Shoal and goyf could both benefit from the cards as well for the normal reasons making them more playable here than elsewhere.
Nothing really revolutionary, but let me explain my thought process on a couple cards:
So far, I am really liking Mishra's Bauble - it helps flip Delver, makes Tarmogoyf fatter, and helps delve into Mandrills a turn earlier. I am not missing the lifeloss vs. Gitaxian Probe, but I am missing the peek effect. If I were to go back, I would probably run 3 Probes and add another creature (Snapcaster Mage or go down to 3 Mandrills and add 2 Tasigur).
Speaking of Mandrills, I have opted to go heavy on these because my meta is generally a lot of small swarmy aggro decks or decks that run Lingering Souls so the trample on Mandrills is very important to me - I don't really miss Tasigur.
I am not really liking Mana Leak in this meta, so I am running Remand for now. I could see some Deprives being stuck in if I need a hard counter but really hate the tempo loss.
I am also running a 3/1 split between Thought Scour and Darkblast - again a concession to my local meta where there is an abundance of Elves, Collected Company, and Affinity. In these matchups, Darkblast is essentially repeatable Thought Scour that 'tutors' into decent removal out of the bin. It also helps win Goyf/Goyf or Mandrills/Tasigur wars.
As for the sideboard, I'm not sure if I like Feed the Clan over Vampiric Link. Link is cheaper and is a repeatable source of lifegain so long as I have a threat on board. I haven't been able to test a matchup yet where Pack Rat was needed, either; I've possibly got 2-4 sideboard slots to utilize.
General Thoughts:
My concern is the number of non blue spells you're running with Disrupting Shoal. You've given up four 1 drop counter spells by running Bauble over Gitaxian Probe. You lose 3 more counter spells for Shoal with the Dismember and Dark Blast. I totally understand the need for it in your local meta so I'm not saying all out it's bad. Dismember though does concern me on another level, and that is life loss. The deck pains itself a lot. You offset some of that by cutting Probe, but perfect information is huge.
Mana Leak is generally considered better than Remand in these style of decks because it puts the card in your opponents graveyard which does two things. One it makes your Goyf's bigger, and two you're not having to answer the card a second time. You're trying to stick a threat and protect it. The more spells you give your opponent the more taxing it becomes to protect your creature. One card to consider over Remand if you're wanting a delay style effect is Delay. I've considered running it but continue to run Mana Leak for the reason above, making my Goyf's bigger and having a final answer to it. I may start testing with one in place of a Mana Leak just for a hedge to the later game.
With what you've said, and for your meta I would consider the following changes...
+2 Gitaxian Probe
+1 Tasigur
+1 Thought Scour
+1 Delay
+1 Mana Leak
+1 Echoing Truth
Cut a Serum Visions and a Mishra's Bauble to get two Gitaxian Probe's in there. 3/2 Bauble/Probe Split.
Dismember is hard on the life totals, I don't like it. One of these gets your 4th Thought Scour back. The other you replace with Echoing Truth. The removal is really good against wide decks that tend to hit two of a creature fairly common, plus it can be pitched to a Disrupting Shoal to counter a creature in the first place.
Delay and a Mana Leak in for two of your Remands. I don't personally think this breakdown is great or terrible. Each of the 3 cards has it's own benefits and weaknesses. Certainly there will be times you wish you had one of the others, but in the same regard if you run 3 of Remand there will be a lot more times you wish you had just Mana Leak or just Delay (though honestly this card just straight needs to be tested).
Cut a 2nd Snappy for a Tasigur. In my experience Snappy is just not even needed in most games. The games are over before he's relevant. In games I expect to be grindy I bring one out of the side now, but I definitely don't run two in the main because most of the time I'm winning without even hitting the mana to do much with him. Maybe move one to the sideboard if you feel you need it.
All in all this gives you an extra two more cards to pitch to Shoal as well.
I don't like Pulse of the Grid. You play a card, and discard a card for the two cards you have. In essence you're paying 3 mana for card filtering. Now should you recur it later in a game you're getting a +1 in returning the card to your hand, but the odds don't seem likely that you're getting a valuable payoff for the effort and mana investment. I'd rather just play Compulsive Research even if it is sorcery speed.
I've played some Grixis Delver and a lot of RUG Delver lately and wanted to give BUG Delver a try next week. I started with Adam Fronsee's list and made a few small changes, nothing too radical besides Colossus which is just objectively a far better plan than Pack Rat to beat Grixis and Jund as far as I'm concerned. Let me know what you all think, thanks.
The Collosus actually is some pretty sweet tech! I'm curious why you play so many Gitaxian Probes as they don't do anything for you (like Pyromancer shananegans)
The Collosus actually is some pretty sweet tech! I'm curious why you play so many Gitaxian Probes as they don't do anything for you (like Pyromancer shananegans)
The 4 Probes is more or less a port from RUG, and sticking with the number Adam ran, but I do have an understanding of why you want the card here. There's 3 main reasons: it helps to enable a T2 Delve creature easier, it ups your Sorcery count for Goyf, and perfect information wins games. Knowing your opponent's hand tells you their gameplan for that hand and let's you know how best to disrupt it. With 8 Sorceries, it's pretty much guaranteed that Goyf will be unboltable on T2, and the "free" spell gives us the ability to consistently drop a power threat before T3 which is a key turn for most decks in Modern.
Since BUG and RUG Delver are much more aggressive and early game oriented than Grixis, the Probes just enable to you to be as efficient, pressuring, and disruptive as possible in the early game so you win before they get to do what their deck is designed to do. The fourth Probe always feels a little weak, but I always want one against Midrange and Control, and it's even very useful against high synergistic decks like Affinity or Titan to know what to counter.
What are your guys's thoughts on mystic snake? It can be the 2 for 1 this deck needs as it counters and is a creature. This deck will struggle against Grixis or Temur for the simple fact of how many 2 for 1's they get with cards like Kcommand, Electrolyze, and even forked bolt.
The snake also works with pitching it to Shoal.
Thoughts?
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One of the main threats I've had trouble dealing with efficiently is wurmcoil engine - another good reason for echoing truth (or maelstrom pulse) as well as a reason to not run things like disfigure or go for the throat. Right now my hard removal is murderous cut and a pulse, but I can almost feel liliana of the veil creeping back into my list.
Otherwise I can say that 4x bauble 4x probe is too much cantripping. I'm at 3/3 and can see going down to 2/2 pretty easily or even 3/1 split.
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
I'm still running 3 copies of Spell Snare and it is either great (Goyf, Bob, Ravager, Snapcaster, Plating) or abysmal (any Vial and/or Cavern of Souls decks).
Sales Thread
Bitter Blossom has been amazing in the matchups you want it in, and those are growing in the meta from what I see. It is bad against burn but does provide a durable threat against non B/G removal heavy decks. I have since moved it to the board, however, just to streamline the main.
Disfigure is also a card that does so much work, but I see no one playing. It is the closest thing to a bolt Sultai can run, and is much stronger than vapor snag from our testing. I run two main now, and keep looking for ways to squeeze in a third. The card I am slowly turning sour on in this list is Spell Snare. Every answer in this deck needs to be flexible, and just as the format is minimizing Abrupt Decay's impact, it is doing the same to Spell Snare. This hurts Snare so much more since it is reactive.
4 Delver of Secrets
1 Snapcaster Mage
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Hooting Mandrills
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Lands - 18
3 Darkslick Shores
1 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Polluted Delta
1 Verdant Catacombs
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
4 Thought Scour
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Mana Leak
1 Echoing Truth
1 Simic Charm
4 Disrupting Shoal
Sorcery's - 7
4 Serum Visions
3 Gitaxian Probe
Planeswalkers - 2
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Feed the Clan
1 Desecration Demon
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Echoing Truth
1 Countersquall
1 Deprive
1 Flashfreeze
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Vapor Snag
1 Deathmark
1 Disfigure
1 Go for the Throat
1 Drown in Sorrow
In my testing so far versus:
Control - I'm 7-0 (14-2 in games)
Combo - I'm 7-2 (15-6 in games)
Midrange - I'm 3-0 (6-1 in games)
Aggro - I'm 5-11 (14-25 in games)
I'm dominating in non Aggro matchups. Aggro matchups are a lot harder. I have found Echoing Truth to over perform so far. So much so that I main deck one over a Simic Charm as it can pair with Disrupting Shoal for 2 just the same, and it can bounce any permanent, not just a creature. I find a lot of aggro decks will hit you with two of the same creatures at times and it can be a great 2 for 1 at attacks delaying until our fatties can take over. So I'm on one in the main and one in the side. It can reset Æther Vial, bounce a Blood Moon long enough to cast a delve creature or even to hold up counter magic. I am definitely singing this card's praises so far.
My only other change to the main was removing a Breeding Pool and putting in a Forest.
Affinity is a very close but very tough matchup I've found. I'm 0-4 in the matchup (2-8 in games) and at this point I have to commit to putting in a Hurkyl's Recall for the board. I feel like I lose to Affinity the turn before I deal lethal almost every time, but that's the nature of the beast. That change, along with the extra Echoing Truth and Vapor Snag (see below) should help improve the matchup I suspect.
Finally, I've added one Vapor Snag. As mentioned in previous posts this is good against aggro as it helps with the delay tactic we need, but it also has the power to bounce something like a Prime Time, or Gurmag Angler for a big tempo advantage...especially right after they empty the graveyard for it. I really try to diversify my sideboard cards in terms of the matchups they are good in and this can play against Splinter Twin, Amulet, has game against Wurmcoil Engine, while also being a big tempo setback against cards you need to commit to like Scavenging Ooze, Arcbound Ravager or cards that have been Ravaged by it. Opponent chords in an Elvish Archdruid, or Æther Vial's in a lord at combat to nail you after blockers...bounce it and block profitably. Opponent brings in a Lord of Atlantis or an Elvish Champion looking to walk past your defenders, bounce it and make their day sad. This effect is really great in this deck, and it's possible I want two Vapor Snag and one Echoing Truth, but time will tell with that.
Anyway, that's where I am at this point. I'm going to try and jam some more matches this week, and with any luck hit up another daily Thursday night. Speaking of, I played in a daily this weekend that didn't go very great. 2-0 versus Jund round 1, round two 0-2 versus Affinity and then 1-2 versus either Naya Zoo or Burn splashing for Wild Nacatl. Round 4 I got a bye so I played a Tourney Room match versus Grixis Delver that I 2-0'ed. It's just that darn aggro, but I feel like we're getting closer.
As for Set Adrift it seems way to expensive and sorcery speed for what it does. I understand setting them back a draw is better than returning it to their hand, but I don't think it is good enough to warrant eating 5 cards out of the graveyard. Conceptually putting cards on top of their library however is something worth looking into.
As for Set Adrift type effects at instant speed we really only have two options. First is Whirlpool Whelm which is a more expensive Vapor Snag with the potential upside of putting the creature on top of the library. Since our deck is so cheap though I feel we'd fall on the bad end of this most of the time, and it also provides our opponents card filtering. All in all I feel this is unplayable. The other option was Whisk Away which is just to expensive for the effect. The fact that Set Adrift can be hit for one or two is relevant but I almost wonder if we're going to be running Sorcery speed if Void Snare wouldn't just be better so you don't waste your graveyard. UR Delver had a bit more velocity and was geared more to getting wide and pairing with burn so I can see the appeal more there than here.
Disfigure - on the bubble. There are games I absolutely wish I had it when opponent lays a t1 delver or goblin guide or t2 dark confidant or voice of resurgence, and times it would swing combat in my favour (i.e. when I have 4/5 goyf and they have 5/5 angler), but when its bad its terrible, and when its bad abrupt decay is usually bad too (e.g. tron).
Monastery siege - nope. There's no way this card does enough to earn a slot. This deck needs max versatility and max impact on every card as we have minimal CA and no combo and no especially fast clock. I'm frequently hellbent when I win.
# of delve guys - I'm up to 7 delves: 4 mandril 2 tasigur 1 murderous cut to support 4 stubborn denials. Being able to recover from the first 1-2 4 power creatures biting the dust is critical. Although I'm pretty sure I should cut back by 1 of these.
Echoing truth - It costs the same as abrupt decay so if you're running this instead it must be for tokens or for things with cmc > 4. What cards are those? And doesn't vapor snag or maelstrom pulse just do it better?
Liliana - I'm back on 2 maindeck for now, but she does strain the mana base some especially when darkslicks are half of your black sources. Not drawing a darkslick means fetching two black sources which can be painful.
Yasova - I was actually looking for some other 4 power cheap creature that doesn't use the graveyard to add some redundancy - worth testing esp since I run 4x denial maindeck. Not sure how often we want that ability, as I find I usually can't evne use tasigurs ability at opp EoT because I need to leave mana up for snap-denial etc in case they path.
go for the throat - not being able to hit wurmcoil engine is kind of a big deal as its one of the big creatures our hard removal should help us handle. I'm on liliana instead of this or dismember for that reason.
Set adrift - there is pretty much no way running this over murderous cut is correct.
Reality shift - it does deal with nuisances like wurmcoil, finks, and voice but I'm not sure its actually better than just vapor snagging those cards for half the cost.
Mutagenic growth - I haven't done much testing with it but I do feel this card has potential. It conflicts with our needing every card to be valid in the majority of situations, but it lets us get ferocious online on a snapcaster or flipped delver "for free" when we need our denial to counter something, it wins goyf wars, with a snapcaster it can be 1U+4 life to deal an additional 4 dmg at instant speed, and it protects flipped delver from bolts. It even saves tasigur from "bolt bolt". All that being said, when you're losing it's going to look pretty bad as a topdeck.
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
Round 1: 2-0 vs Jund
G1: he slow-rolls his olivia around my mana leak properly, but on critical turn punts. I have 4/5 goyf, 4/4 mandril, 1/1 delver up against his olivia and know he has finks in hand. He's at 4 life. He pings the delver, then pings the mandril and casts bolt which I stubborn denial. Can no longer cast finks, takes exacties on the goyf+mandril swing espite live olivia :S
G2: I t0 leyline of the void he t1 IoK's my serum - I beat down with a 3/4 goyf basically the entire game - a second goyf eats terminate, his goyf gets deathmarked and his huntmaster gets snap-deathmarked. He t4 curse of death's hold t5 hardcast leyline of the void so the slow ass 3/4 goyf just eventually got there through all the crap.
Round 2: 0-2 vs GR tron
G1: mull to 6, keep 0 lander 2 git probe on the draw. Make first land drop, do not make 2nd, turn 3 karn gg.
G2: He gets tron but has no action besides an ulamog. I have goyf+mandril+4-counter liliana out and hurkylls recall i hand when he casts ulamog. Ulamog blasts the liliana with him at 8 life. If I draw a bounce spell the game is mine. I draw dead. I swing to bring him down to 4 losing the goyf - if he swings I'll drop to 7 and have a land and a goyf left. My hand is hurkyll's recall. He casts ugin and that's that. I check and next card is simic charm - if he had drawn dead and had to sit on the ulamog the game was mine frown emoticon
Round 3: 1-2 vs 4-colour midrange? Basically mardu pyromancer/delve with blue for thought scour.
G1: Horiffic mana screw, I almost make a game of it by decaying his pyromancer nad then going back to back lilianas against his back to back tasigurs but I'm at 8 life when he casts lingering souls and flashes it back.
G2: I t2 tasigur and he has no terminate or path nor even a souls...
G3: I keep a 5 lander with delver and snapcaster. He bolts delver t1. He young pyros t2, I vapor snag it. He misses land-drop and replays it, I snap snag it. And then I drew 2 lands and he started making land drops and resolved a tasigur. I rip back to back mandrils that meet back to back terminates. He flips his delver so I explosives for 0 to kill it (Was saving for tokens). Game ends with him at 11 and me dead.
Round 4: 2-1 vs burn
G1: he has me down to 10 on turn 3 on the play and miracles a thunderous wrath to drop me to 5, then lava spikes me to drop me to 2. I have a 4/5 goyf out. I untap, cast hooting mandrils and pass turn. He goes for molten rain which I stubborn denial. my hand has leaks and stubborn denials so there's hope - and thanks largely to him drawing 6 lands total I win after going down to 2 life on turn 3 :S
G2: I keep a 1 lander with thought scour, feed the clan, goyf, mandrils. Miss second land drop 3 turns in a row. He also only had one land, but his one land went swift-swift-spike-bolt gg.
G3: stubborn denial his t1 bump. Goyf. Snapcaster in hand, scry serum visions finding feed the clan and delta. Stack them so I can go feed, then snap-feed. He molten rains my watery grave - goyf is stuck on 3/4 so eventually I throw the snap out hoping he'll kill it and give me ferocious, but he doesn't bite. The 5 life is all I need to jump from 6 to 11 with him on rift bolt suspended + 1 card in hand. Doesn't have the mana for double-boros charm so seems safe and sure enough it gets there.
4 mandrils tonight was too many - several games I just drew a glut of delve guys - and it still didnt get me with ferocious always online (which was kind of the point of 4 mandril 2 tas). In general I built this deck to not lose to combo decks, so playing midrange tron and burn isn't exactly the dream. I can beat tron if I get early pressure with counters, but otherwise its pretty much impossible.
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
I played the same decklist as listed above linked as a spoiler here to save space.
4 Delver of Secrets
1 Snapcaster Mage
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Hooting Mandrills
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Lands - 18
3 Darkslick Shores
1 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Polluted Delta
1 Verdant Catacombs
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
4 Thought Scour
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Mana Leak
1 Echoing Truth
1 Simic Charm
4 Disrupting Shoal
Sorcery's - 7
4 Serum Visions
3 Gitaxian Probe
Planeswalkers - 2
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Feed the Clan
1 Desecration Demon
1 Liliana of the Veil
1 Echoing Truth
1 Countersquall
1 Deprive
1 Flashfreeze
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Vapor Snag
1 Deathmark
1 Disfigure
1 Go for the Throat
1 Drown in Sorrow
So pretty excited about the 4-0 as it was my first 4-0. I have only participated in roughly eight or so Dailies and while I have three or four 3-1's this is my first 4-0. I wish I could tell you I solved the aggro issue I never hit what I would deem an aggro deck so hopefully I'll get to run into more of that in my next daily.
M1 - UR Twin (1-0, 2-0)
G1 - Both games were grindy, but this first one was scary as he opened with Grim Lavamancer which had me thinking burn. My T4, I Gitaxian Probe him to see he has his 4th land, two Deceiver Exarch's, a Splinter Twin and a Snapcaster Mage. I had just used my Abrupt Decay so I was quite nervous at that point. T7 he had the opening but either didn't have it or didn't make the move, and I was able to use Lily and delve fatties to take it from there...when he finally conceded before my 14th turn.
G2 - I correctly predicted he would go control (or else he just missed twin all game...you never truly know against twin). Either way it ended up being a bit of a race that I was able to win by hitting exactsies for 9 with a Goyf, Snappy and Simic Charm
M2 - Grixis Twin (2-0, 4-0)
G1 - I was able to get a Goyf and Mandirll down early and use counter magic to hold him off and get a T6 victory.
G2 - This was long and grindy, I mulled to 6. Basically he hit a T3 Bitterblossom which opened the door for me to drop a Lily. This grinded him out for several turns until he was able to produce enough flyers between the Faeries and the Pestermite's to eventually kill Lily. By then he had to start leaving a Faerie back to block 6/7 Goyf while a Mandrill kept crashing in for 4. He conceded T10 when he didn't draw anything that could handle what I had.
M3 - Grixis Twin (3-0, 6-0)
G1 - I actually thought I was playing Grixis Delver this match. Primarily because he opened with a Darkslick Shores and played a Terminate but I never saw any twin piece. I kept a fairly risky but potentially powerful hand. It had almost everything want except a dual land, the opening 7 was: Island, Thought Scour, Thought Scour, Echoing Truth, Stubborn Denial and Disrupting Shoal. T1 I Thought Scoured into a swamp which helped but not much as I drew a Mandrill. Then I missed my T3 land drop drawing a Goyf instead and didn't do anything that turn. T4 I drew Verdant Catacombs and was off to the races. Disrupting Shoal protected my Goyf at casting, Stubborn Denial a Terminate, and then Delve in Mandrill with a Mana Leak up for protection. Beat down from there.
G2 - I sided for Grixis Delver, and got off to a fast start with a T2 Tasigur backed up by Disrupting Shoal with Simic Charm at casting. Stuck a Goyf T3, and then basically beat down from here. Had a mini freak out when my opponent attempted to drop a T4 Exarch on me as I was sure to this point I wasn't playing Twin. Opponent conceded after their T5 draw missed the needed removal to extend the game.
M4 - Soul Sisters (4-0, 8-0)
G1 - He got out to a big lifegain lead, but I was able to stick a Lily and keep it alive with removal until I could get a Tasigur down to block. Opponent conceded while still above 30 life but he was on an essentially empty board (just Martyr of the Sands) with no cards in hand to my Tas and a Lily. Every card I saw was Soul Sisters.
G2 - I basically was able to just beat down early while he went on the Squadron Hawk beatdown plan. I Drown in Sorrowed 4 of them and he kind of raged on me bringing that in. It seemed good from what I had seen, but turns out he was playing a Ghostly Prison deck that just shared a lot of cards and so Drown was apparently very narrow against him but huge at that moment as I was able to attack back on my next turn for lethal.
That's my story.
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
Of course you all aren't as all in on the tempo plan as me so my experiences in large part, due to that and running Disrupting Shoal, likely make my games play less midrangey than you guys and thus may not lime up with your own experiences.
Sales Thread
This is why I really like the lists trying to avoid Serum Visions. It is the best cantrip in Modern but it really hurts to play it turn 1 in BUG. I'd much rather sit on a fetch turn 1 if I have to and only bolt myself if Stubborn Denial or Thought Scour seems like the right play. A Delver turn 1 is usually a 50/50 call and bolting myself isn't as tough a call if I think he'll live and give me an edge. Stubborn Denial on Summer Bloom or Thoughtseize, Thought Scour on myself if it means turn 2 Tasigur or messing up the opponent's 2 on top Serum Visions, those are the things I don't mind taking 3 damage to make happen. Drawing a card and Scrying 2 is only worth the damage if I kept a shaky hand. I'd rather just not keep that hand in the first place.
It is the best cantrip but it's not Ponder or Preordain.
I think this card has applications. Just depends on where to fit it in.
I just had a rough daily this week, part of it was poor play, but I've realized at this point in my bad matchups versus aggro I am to committed to trying to 1 for 1 my opponent, and thus I need to up my two for one cards. I've not played with it yet, but I'm going up to two Engineered Explosives, and two Drown in Sorrow. I also replaced Go for the Throat with Reality Shift as well. Glad to hear it worked well for you.
The reason to be in black here is Lily, Tasigur, Gurmag Angler, and Abrupt Decay. Thoughtseize, and Inquisition are great cards, but blue is what makes Delver/tempo decks tick and they're just not good enough here. Also this deck seems much much better with Disrupting Shoal in my experience as tempo is where this deck wants to be at and Thoughtseize/IoK don't help with that card. Another part of why I want blue removal like Reality Shift over black removal most of the time.
Temur is definitely better against aggro decks, and I want to try Temur out as well, but even online just to get the missing pieces is another $280, and that is only Blood Moon's, Scalding Tarn's and Huntmasters. While Temur is better against aggro, BUG is better versus Control and Combo. Certainly Control isn't big right now but Combo is no slouch. If money were no object, the meta right now is better suited to Temur and that's probably what I'd play, but money and favoritism (BUG is my favorite color combo) both have me on the BUG plan for now.
Here is the latest build I am testing:
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Polluted Delta
2 Verdant Catacomb
1 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
2 Watery Grave
1 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
Creature (14)
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Hooting Mandrills
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Serum Visions
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Abrupt Decay
2 Dismember
2 Simic Charm
3 Remand
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Thought Scour
1 Darkblast
1 Stubborn Denial
1 Nature's Claim
1 Dispel
1 Golgari Charm
1 Flashfreeze
2 Pack Rat
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Feed the Clan
2 Disfigure
2 Vampiric Link
Nothing really revolutionary, but let me explain my thought process on a couple cards:
So far, I am really liking Mishra's Bauble - it helps flip Delver, makes Tarmogoyf fatter, and helps delve into Mandrills a turn earlier. I am not missing the lifeloss vs. Gitaxian Probe, but I am missing the peek effect. If I were to go back, I would probably run 3 Probes and add another creature (Snapcaster Mage or go down to 3 Mandrills and add 2 Tasigur).
Speaking of Mandrills, I have opted to go heavy on these because my meta is generally a lot of small swarmy aggro decks or decks that run Lingering Souls so the trample on Mandrills is very important to me - I don't really miss Tasigur.
I am not really liking Mana Leak in this meta, so I am running Remand for now. I could see some Deprives being stuck in if I need a hard counter but really hate the tempo loss.
I am also running a 3/1 split between Thought Scour and Darkblast - again a concession to my local meta where there is an abundance of Elves, Collected Company, and Affinity. In these matchups, Darkblast is essentially repeatable Thought Scour that 'tutors' into decent removal out of the bin. It also helps win Goyf/Goyf or Mandrills/Tasigur wars.
As for the sideboard, I'm not sure if I like Feed the Clan over Vampiric Link. Link is cheaper and is a repeatable source of lifegain so long as I have a threat on board. I haven't been able to test a matchup yet where Pack Rat was needed, either; I've possibly got 2-4 sideboard slots to utilize.
As always, let me know what you think...
Sales Thread
General Thoughts:
My concern is the number of non blue spells you're running with Disrupting Shoal. You've given up four 1 drop counter spells by running Bauble over Gitaxian Probe. You lose 3 more counter spells for Shoal with the Dismember and Dark Blast. I totally understand the need for it in your local meta so I'm not saying all out it's bad. Dismember though does concern me on another level, and that is life loss. The deck pains itself a lot. You offset some of that by cutting Probe, but perfect information is huge.
Mana Leak is generally considered better than Remand in these style of decks because it puts the card in your opponents graveyard which does two things. One it makes your Goyf's bigger, and two you're not having to answer the card a second time. You're trying to stick a threat and protect it. The more spells you give your opponent the more taxing it becomes to protect your creature. One card to consider over Remand if you're wanting a delay style effect is Delay. I've considered running it but continue to run Mana Leak for the reason above, making my Goyf's bigger and having a final answer to it. I may start testing with one in place of a Mana Leak just for a hedge to the later game.
With what you've said, and for your meta I would consider the following changes...
+2 Gitaxian Probe
+1 Tasigur
+1 Thought Scour
+1 Delay
+1 Mana Leak
+1 Echoing Truth
-1 Mishra's Bauble
-2 Dismember
-2 Remand
-1 Serum Visions
-1 Snapcaster Mage
Detailed Thoughts
4 Delver of Secrets
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Hooting Mandrills
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Gurmag Angler
Instants (20)
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Mana Leak
3 Stubborn Denial
3 Abrupt Decay
1 Dismember
2 Simic Charm
4 Thought Scour
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Serum Visions
Lands (17)
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Polluted Delta
2 Breeding Pool
1 Watery Grave
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Darkslick Shores
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Forest
2 Chameleon Colossus
1 Abrupt Decay
1 Darkblast
1 Disfigure
1 Dismember
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Creeping Corrosion
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Feed the Clan
1 Spellskite
1 Dispel
Since BUG and RUG Delver are much more aggressive and early game oriented than Grixis, the Probes just enable to you to be as efficient, pressuring, and disruptive as possible in the early game so you win before they get to do what their deck is designed to do. The fourth Probe always feels a little weak, but I always want one against Midrange and Control, and it's even very useful against high synergistic decks like Affinity or Titan to know what to counter.
The snake also works with pitching it to Shoal.
Thoughts?