Hello folks! I am mostly a commander player, but I want to branch out into modern a little bit so that I can attend my local FNM. I came up with deck idea after noticing a few synergies while working on a commander tribal deck. I am hoping there is a person here who would be kind enough to help me with the mana base. I have a $100 budget for the mana base. Most of the main deck I have, or I will treat as an additional expense.
I'm ignoring gold cards and filter lands like Fetid Heath because they're too complicated for me. My rounding is inconsistent.
This deck wants W, B, or G for warriors on turn 1, 1WW for warriors sometime, and BG for spells sometime. Using a basic mulligan strategy of
Hand size: stuff to keep:
7: keep 2-4 lands
6: keep 2-4 lands
5: keep 1-4 lands
4: keep and weep
The deck will mulligan about 1/3 of hands, then 2/5, then 1/10.
To get W, B, or G for warriors on turn 1:
Number of sources of the appropriate color: Chance to have that mana on turn 1
9: 80%
10: 84%
11: 87.5%
12: 90%
13: 92.7%
14: 94.5%
I like chances over 90%, how about you?
Getting 1WW by a certain turn:
12 sources:
Turn 3: 57.5%
Turn 4: 66%
Turn 5: 72.8%
13 sources:
Turn 3: 61.3%
Turn 4: 69.8%
Turn 5: 76.5%
14 sources:
Turn 3: 64.4%
Turn 4: 72.9%
Turn 5: 79.4%
15 sources:
Turn 3: The percentage of the beast
Turn 4: 75%
Turn 5: 81.4%
16 sources:
Turn 3: 68.2%
Turn 4: 76.5%
Turn 5: 82.7%
This is the big hurdle. The chance of casting Arashin Foremost can only go so high due to running 18 lands. WW doesn't matter without 3 mana total.
Getting 1B or 1G (I'm not advanced enough to do BG) by a certain turn:
8 sources:
Turn 2: 76.7%
Turn 3: 80.3%
Turn 4: 83.5%
9 sources:
Turn 2: 81%
Turn 3: 84.3%
Turn 4: 87.1%
10 sources:
Turn 2: 84.5%
Turn 3: 87.5%
Turn 4: 90%
11 sources:
Turn 2: 87.4%
Turn 3: 90%
Turn 4: 92.1%
12 sources:
Turn 2: 89.6%
Turn 3: 91.9%
Turn 4: 93.7%
12 sources is great, but you don't want to cast warriors on turn 2, so it's not that important.
Then comes prices. Some are insane, some are not. In particular, the enemy Caves of Koilos and Concealed Courtyard cycles are cheaper than their ally counterparts, Brushland and Razorverge Thicket, while it's easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a thrifty man to purchase Marsh Flats and Verdant Catacombs. Ultimately, I came up with this:
I tried to focus on lands you could play for a long time while keeping the price below 100 for a pre-purchase upgrade, if you'd like. It's painful. Sunpetal Grove could replace Brushland, and would work out most of the time. It comes out to 92-95 USD, and has 14 sources of each color for warriors and 10 sources of each color for cowards.
Throwing that away, I suggest cutting Sudden Reclamation for a couple of lands (Plains or Windbrisk Heights) because 3-4 is a lot to pay in an 18 land deck, Abrupt Decay for Path to Exile (Dromoka's Command is an option, but I like Path) because it's easier to cast with your WW requirements (paying for Path by cutting 1-2 black nonbasic lands for basics), and to throw in on turn 3 alongside a 2-mana creature, and Devoted Crop-Mate for Blood-Chin Rager (or another useful 2-mana warrior) or Lingering Souls, with both being better on offense and Souls losing warrior synergy but adding a lot to graveyard shenanigans. Nettle Sentinel is hard to untap on turn 2-3 (you don't want to Grapple with the Past then, do you?), so maybe Dragon Hunter, I don't know. I think it's possible to work one or more Brushland/Llanowar Wastes out of the mana base with these changes, freeing up some budget.
and has 14 sources of each color for warriors and 10 sources of each color for cowards.
I guess I know what time line is your favorite. ;P
You have given me allot to digest. Thank you. Your number work in particular is appreciated. I can tell you took some time to write that up.
Based on your feedback it sounds like my biggest problem is having the mana to cast my turn 1 creatures. My second problem is hitting double white.
My original draft of this list was Golgari. I only went with Abzan because a friend pointed out Mardu Woe-Reaper which was a perfect fit. He replaced a planed 4x Vampire Lacerator that I was unsure of. Adding white also won me over because I could replace metallic mimic with Chief of the Edge. The Arashin Foremost was chosen only because I though that if I went without it, the deck would be lacking one of the more powerful warriors. If it is in fact a liability, and a barrier to affording the deck, I will cut it in a heart beat.
I must admit I never stopped to consider how one the $0.50 cards could alter the cost of the mana base, making it more expensive overall.
Although it does come into play tapped, one of my favorite lands for the Abzan base is Murmuring Bosk. Note that is a "Forest" and therefore fetchable with your Windswept Heaths.
EDIT** So I did some shopping around online. The main deck is $66.25 CDN. Close to my budget there. The mana base is $228.82 CDN. More than double my plan. I like the deck allot, but I may have to return to the drawing board.
4 Bramblewood Paragon
4 Nettle Sentinel
4 Bloodsoaked Champion
4 Mardu Woe-Reaper
4 Arashin Foremost
2 Grim Flayer
4 Chief of the Edge
3 Devoted Crop-Mate
2 Sudden Reclamation
4 Grapple with the Past
4 Abrupt Decay
Sorcery
3 Gather the Pack
Deck suggestions are also welcome. My goal is a traditional aggro setup with some graveyard shenanigans to improve my card advantage.
This deck wants W, B, or G for warriors on turn 1, 1WW for warriors sometime, and BG for spells sometime. Using a basic mulligan strategy of
Hand size: stuff to keep:
7: keep 2-4 lands
6: keep 2-4 lands
5: keep 1-4 lands
4: keep and weep
The deck will mulligan about 1/3 of hands, then 2/5, then 1/10.
To get W, B, or G for warriors on turn 1:
Number of sources of the appropriate color: Chance to have that mana on turn 1
9: 80%
10: 84%
11: 87.5%
12: 90%
13: 92.7%
14: 94.5%
I like chances over 90%, how about you?
Getting 1WW by a certain turn:
12 sources:
Turn 3: 57.5%
Turn 4: 66%
Turn 5: 72.8%
13 sources:
Turn 3: 61.3%
Turn 4: 69.8%
Turn 5: 76.5%
14 sources:
Turn 3: 64.4%
Turn 4: 72.9%
Turn 5: 79.4%
15 sources:
Turn 3: The percentage of the beast
Turn 4: 75%
Turn 5: 81.4%
16 sources:
Turn 3: 68.2%
Turn 4: 76.5%
Turn 5: 82.7%
This is the big hurdle. The chance of casting Arashin Foremost can only go so high due to running 18 lands. WW doesn't matter without 3 mana total.
Getting 1B or 1G (I'm not advanced enough to do BG) by a certain turn:
8 sources:
Turn 2: 76.7%
Turn 3: 80.3%
Turn 4: 83.5%
9 sources:
Turn 2: 81%
Turn 3: 84.3%
Turn 4: 87.1%
10 sources:
Turn 2: 84.5%
Turn 3: 87.5%
Turn 4: 90%
11 sources:
Turn 2: 87.4%
Turn 3: 90%
Turn 4: 92.1%
12 sources:
Turn 2: 89.6%
Turn 3: 91.9%
Turn 4: 93.7%
12 sources is great, but you don't want to cast warriors on turn 2, so it's not that important.
Then comes prices. Some are insane, some are not. In particular, the enemy Caves of Koilos and Concealed Courtyard cycles are cheaper than their ally counterparts, Brushland and Razorverge Thicket, while it's easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a thrifty man to purchase Marsh Flats and Verdant Catacombs. Ultimately, I came up with this:
4 Windswept Heath
1 Godless Shrine
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Temple Garden
2 Llanowar Wastes
2 Concealed Courtyard
1 Brushland
1 Forest
1 Plains
Throwing that away, I suggest cutting Sudden Reclamation for a couple of lands (Plains or Windbrisk Heights) because 3-4 is a lot to pay in an 18 land deck, Abrupt Decay for Path to Exile (Dromoka's Command is an option, but I like Path) because it's easier to cast with your WW requirements (paying for Path by cutting 1-2 black nonbasic lands for basics), and to throw in on turn 3 alongside a 2-mana creature, and Devoted Crop-Mate for Blood-Chin Rager (or another useful 2-mana warrior) or Lingering Souls, with both being better on offense and Souls losing warrior synergy but adding a lot to graveyard shenanigans. Nettle Sentinel is hard to untap on turn 2-3 (you don't want to Grapple with the Past then, do you?), so maybe Dragon Hunter, I don't know. I think it's possible to work one or more Brushland/Llanowar Wastes out of the mana base with these changes, freeing up some budget.
Arashin Foremost could go, solving the white-mana woes, but I don't know whether or not alternatives like Renegade Rallier or Varolz, the Scar-Striped do anything for you.
I guess I know what time line is your favorite. ;P
You have given me allot to digest. Thank you. Your number work in particular is appreciated. I can tell you took some time to write that up.
Based on your feedback it sounds like my biggest problem is having the mana to cast my turn 1 creatures. My second problem is hitting double white.
My original draft of this list was Golgari. I only went with Abzan because a friend pointed out Mardu Woe-Reaper which was a perfect fit. He replaced a planed 4x Vampire Lacerator that I was unsure of. Adding white also won me over because I could replace metallic mimic with Chief of the Edge. The Arashin Foremost was chosen only because I though that if I went without it, the deck would be lacking one of the more powerful warriors. If it is in fact a liability, and a barrier to affording the deck, I will cut it in a heart beat.
I must admit I never stopped to consider how one the $0.50 cards could alter the cost of the mana base, making it more expensive overall.
This was the original plan:
4x Vampire Lacerator
4x Nettle Sentinel
4x Bramblewood Paragon
4x metallic mimic
4x graveblade marauder
2x Varolz, the Scar-Striped
2x Grim Flayer
3x Abrupt Decay
2x Sudden Reclamation
3x Gather the Pack
I'll keep it Abzan colours, but using your feed back I'll do this:
4 Mardu Shadowspear
2 Graveblade Marauder
4 Bramblewood Paragon
1 Varolz, the Scar-Striped
4 Bloodsoaked Champion
4 Mardu Woe-Reaper
2 Blood-Chin Rager
2 Grim Flayer
4 Chief of the Edge
2 Renegade Rallier
1 Forest
1 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Temple Garden
1 Godless Shrine
4 Windswept Heath
2 Llanowar Wastes
2 Concealed Courtyard
1 Sunpetal Grove
4 Unclaimed Territory
2 Path to Exile
2 Dromoka's Command
4 Grapple with the Past
1 Abrupt Decay
Sorcery
3 Gather the Pack
Vampire Lacerator would be better with Varolz, the Scar-Striped, but the draw back scares me. I decided on Mardu Shadowspear because I can get more ETB's in the late game.
**EDIT** Declist updated with mana base as suggested for previous build.
4 Wild Nacatl
4 Narnam Renegade
3 Mardu Woe-Reaper
Two Drop Lords (9)
4 Bramblewood Paragon
3 Brighthearth Banneret
2 Herald of Dromoka
'Three' Drop Finishers (8)
3 Renegade Rallier
3 Countryside Crusher
2 Talara's Battalion
2 Path to Exile
2 Dromoka's Command
3 Lightning Bolt
Card Advantage (6)
4 Grapple with the Past
2 Gather the Pack
Land (19)
4x Wooded Foothills
4x Windswept Heath
1x Temple Garden
1x Stomping ground
1x Sacred Foundry
1x Forest
1x Mountain
1x Plains
2x Inspiring Vantage
3x Unclaimed Territory
Boggart Ram Gang is also a possibility but I am stuck on playing with my GY.
4x Wild Nacatl
4x Narnam Renegade
3x Mardu Woe-Reaper
1x Zurgo Bellstriker
Two Drop Lords
4x Bramblewood Paragon
3x Brighthearth Banneret
2x Herald of Dromoka
'Three' Drop Finishers
3x Renegade Rallier
2x Reckless Bushwhacker
2x Greenwheel Liberator
2x Path to exile
2x Dromoka's Command
3x Lightning Bolt
Card Advantage
3x Grapple with the Past
2x Faithless Looting
Other
2x Atarka's Command
Land
4x Wooded Foothills
4x Windswept Heath
1x Temple Garden
1x Stomping ground
1x Sacred Foundry
1x Forest
1x Mountain
1x Plains
2x Inspiring Vantage
2x Unclaimed Territory
I choose Reckless Bushwhacker over Goblin Bushwhacker. No matter what they are a turn 3+ play. Eliminating RR helps my curve and the alternate caster cost ability can be reduced by Brighthearth Banneret. Same goes for Zurgo Bellstriker's dash cost.
Lastly, I exchanged Talara's Battalion for Greenwheel Liberator, because the latter would be easier to acquire.
EDIT** So I did some shopping around online. The main deck is $66.25 CDN. Close to my budget there. The mana base is $228.82 CDN. More than double my plan. I like the deck allot, but I may have to return to the drawing board.