20% of the meta being Phoenix is certainly stunning, but I still think Dredge is the scary one here. I'm partially on Gokurou's side with the Dredge question, but we certainly differ on Looting.
I just can't accept a 1cmc card with such a high potential card advantage and no drawback. At it's worst it upgrades 2 cards in your hand, at it's best you discard 2 Phoenix for what is essentially "Draw 4".
to give a little perspective, UR Phoenix in its current incarnation was popularized with Ross Merriam's win at SCG Baltimore (12/02/18). Prior to this phoenix decks were gaining traction but ultimately fractured with no noteworthy GP results.
GP Portland (12/08) - 2 copies (kci legal)
GP Oakland (1/06) - 1 copy (kci legal)
GP Toronto (2/10) - 2 copies
GP Los Angeles (3/02) - 2 copies
GP Bilbao (3/15) - 2 copies
GP Tampa (3/15) - 4 copies
In a little over 3 months the deck has gotten 13 top8s.
at this trajectory, if these results continue up through the mythic championship, im not sure even the promise of modern horizons can spare the deck. we will see what happens though.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I tried to avoid this thread, I really did. I am literally floored that people are not coming to grips with this, especially after this weekend.
@ktk: I tried to find you on Twitter, but I suck at searching. Has any deck, in a global sense, had such a weekend as this outside of Eldrazi (aka the most broken this format has ever been)? I struggle to think of any, that over a 'global' weekend in Europe, a GP in the US, AND SCG (which we know plays by a slightly different meta) all had the same trending pattern.
@Renegade Rallier: You are right.
@Everyone else: We dont want bans right? We all know Twin never hit these numbers right? We know that taking out the 'best deck' over and over and over, does nothing right?
We can (and almost certainly Wizards will) wait until Horizons. What equity can they gain by nuking 6+ decks, and leaving us with Stirrings (which WILL) rise up to fill the void if they ban looting? Please people, think through the logical steps.
What happened when BBE and Jace came off. Did you play then? I did. Fair decks rose up! Did BBE make Jund actually good? lol NO! Did it matter? Absolutely not. Unban's, shaped the meta for a time.
Lets continue this mental exercise. Is Containment Priest going to do anything? Not on its own! You just delay your own development, and honestly I would probably rather hope and pray to spin that Terminus wheel. Would it help things? Sure, one more tool for the toolbox of Humans, and GWx fair decks (that are literally unplayable if you actually care to take part in the 'winners meta').
OK, so thats not it. Planar Void Well the cost is right for Modern, and its an enchantment that at least Phoenix struggles against (like Runed Halo that NeoThinker loves to an unhealthy degree on Twitter) so you put that into Jund/Junk/Rock (Rock, personally) and that helps, but as correctly noted there are other paths for Phoenix, and Dredge runs removal for a reason (RIP actually hurts Dredge).
OK so now we have 2 options, are we getting any help for URx control? You know, the archetype that Wizards tried 3 or 4 times to help out? That is NOT good in the face of these Looting and Stirrings decks?
Its gotta be Daze or something like it. People dont like FoW, fine, whatever. So lets at least try Daze. Well Phoenix could play Daze. Counterspell? lol dont make me laugh. The only format Counterspell is legal in, in which it sees play, is Pauper.
So we have 3 old designs, powerful in their own right. Will those be enough? Will those apply enough power to reactive or midrange (and no Phoenix is not midrange what an utterly LAUGHABLE statement) to bring them back up to Phoenix and Dredge? REALLY?
I think not.
Horizon's has the potential to be great, but until there is something to punish tapping out, nothing will reward players more than playing proactively in Modern and racing. We dont need definitions for 'fair' 'unfair' 'linear' or 'interactive'.
Proactive is easy. If you can goldfish your hand over and over and over, you are proactive. Try that with a Blue Moon hand, with Remands, Cryptics, and Spell Snare looking back at you.
You dont need to ban 7+ decks (if you ban looting, you better come at Stirrings or we are in the same place in 6 months) you simply need to look at the ban list and figure it out.
EDIT: Oh and if you think this is healthy, you are a hardcore spike that probably though Eldrazi was a fine format. Modern is sick, to the core.
One thing to note is that phoenix decks can also transform into a pyromancer's ascension deck which can lock up games against fair decks without graveyard hate in the main. Additionally, having access to crackling drake makes this into a game of cat and mouse where the phoenix deck can ignore the graveyard hate you HAVE to put in against ascension.
This transformative nature of the deck and angle of attack that pyromancer's ascension gives the deck is pretty powerful as well.
An example of this is the Dylan Donnegan match where he was able to cycle through his entire deck at one life and kill his opponent from 21 life in a very storm-esque fashion.
The xerox nature of the deck is why it can transform into ascension so easily. Multiple people pointed out this as a very big possibility post KCI ban and it seems they were correct that those decks would pick up the metashare.
Hopefully, MH and WAR come with some tools that fair decks need again to fight this. As I've stated, I do not think that control decks are far off and don't need insane answers printed but we do need some additional tools to win games.
After dishing out an innumerable number of infractions and warnings, I'm locking this thread for a few days so every can cool off a bit. Come back in a few days when it's reopened to resume discussion.
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After some deliberation, we have deemed that the discussion here in the state of modern has been too volatile recently. We here at Mtgsalvation pride ourselves on being a welcoming and civil community for the discussion of Magic the Gathering. While we understand from time to time conversations can get heated, flaming and trolling behaviors are unacceptable and will not be tolerated. In this thread, we have seen some of the worst of this and due to that we are taking stricter action.
When the thread is unlocked if people continue to flame and troll, we will begin suspensions immediately.
Due to the history of flaming and trolling that has plagued the thread, we are implementing a new rule. For the foreseeable future, if you flame or troll in the thread, you will be receiving a week suspension immediately.
So, some questions from before the lock on the last page right after the weekend fireworks.
1.
@ktk: I tried to find you on Twitter, but I suck at searching. Has any deck, in a global sense, had such a weekend as this outside of Eldrazi (aka the most broken this format has ever been)? I struggle to think of any, that over a 'global' weekend in Europe, a GP in the US, AND SCG (which we know plays by a slightly different meta) all had the same trending pattern.
Phoenix's numbers shouldn't be that high, because it's not THAT good. It's not 20% good, it's 10% good. Dredge and other similar strategies keep its natural predators down, and I'm talking from much experience.
This was from a different thread, and it really needs to be understood because its 100% accurate. I've said since Phoenix became a thing, that it can be suppressed by 'fair' decks, specifically things like Rock/BGx, the issue is those decks lose to the rest of Modern! I mean I dont follow the Rock discussion, but does it beat Storm, Tron? Hollow Bois? Dredge? Terminus? Heck if I know.
So, some questions from before the lock on the last page right after the weekend fireworks.
1.
@ktk: I tried to find you on Twitter, but I suck at searching. Has any deck, in a global sense, had such a weekend as this outside of Eldrazi (aka the most broken this format has ever been)? I struggle to think of any, that over a 'global' weekend in Europe, a GP in the US, AND SCG (which we know plays by a slightly different meta) all had the same trending pattern.
Phoenix's numbers shouldn't be that high, because it's not THAT good. It's not 20% good, it's 10% good. Dredge and other similar strategies keep its natural predators down, and I'm talking from much experience.
This was from a different thread, and it really needs to be understood because its 100% accurate. I've said since Phoenix became a thing, that it can be suppressed by 'fair' decks, specifically things like Rock/BGx, the issue is those decks lose to the rest of Modern! I mean I dont follow the Rock discussion, but does it beat Storm, Tron? Hollow Bois? Dredge? Terminus? Heck if I know.
The Rock was the only undefeated deck going into the top 8, I believe, at SCG Philly a few days ago. It would have taken the whole event down if not for a misplay against Phoenix in the finals. Yes, it can beat all those decks in the hands of a skilled pilot as Orr clearly demonstrated (pretty sure he even beat Amulet 2-0), so saying it loses to 'the rest of Modern' is simply not true.
About Phoenix decks: everybody keeps saying "it's not that strong" or "it's beatable". But the number keep saying the opposite.
I'm beginning to think that the power of that deck is undervalued. I think it is beatable, but not as easyly as it's being said. If it lose only to a category of decks (midrange/control) we may have a problem.
I'm waiting for other events to see if the format can self regulate even without Horizon.
The fact that the format sometimes seems broken but it can come back as ok (as happened last year with humans and shadow decks) makes me like it even more.
Phoenix's numbers shouldn't be that high, because it's not THAT good. It's not 20% good, it's 10% good. Dredge and other similar strategies keep its natural predators down, and I'm talking from much experience.
This was from a different thread, and it really needs to be understood because its 100% accurate. I've said since Phoenix became a thing, that it can be suppressed by 'fair' decks, specifically things like Rock/BGx, the issue is those decks lose to the rest of Modern! I mean I dont follow the Rock discussion, but does it beat Storm, Tron? Hollow Bois? Dredge? Terminus? Heck if I know.
This could be a really interesting point.
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Decks played: Modern:
0 Affinity;
URG Delver
URGW Countercats
(Here you can find some video contents about Countercats and Temur Delver decks)
Just a thing about this article that is not considered and might be impactful: In a field where 20% of the players are on the same deck, there is a much higher chance for that deck to play a mirror match, which will inevitably account 1 win and 1 loss for the deck, thus moving its overall winrate closer to 50% Never mind, the numbers are for non-mirror matches
It would be great to know the matchup analysis like Tobi Henke did after Portland. I think that would be much more indicative of how well does Phoenix performs vs the rest of the field. Phoenix already had some data there and besides the Dredge matchup which seems terrible, everything else is either favorable or at least you can put a fight (36,4% vs Jund, second worst matchup)
Any significant changes to the meta via bans prior to June 14 would be highly unlikely. Again, 250+ new cards will be dumped into the format and the meta will absolutely change as a result. Instilling a ban now would be as useful as re-roofing a house scheduled for demolition.
About Phoenix decks: everybody keeps saying "it's not that strong" or "it's beatable". But the number keep saying the opposite.
I'm beginning to think that the power of that deck is undervalued. I think it is beatable, but not as easyly as it's being said. If it lose only to a category of decks (midrange/control) we may have a problem.
I'm waiting for other events to see if the format can self regulate even without Horizon.
The fact that the format sometimes seems broken but it can come back as ok (as happened last year with humans and shadow decks) makes me like it even more.
phoenix doesnt only lose to midrange and control. even if you categorize whir decks as control plenty of aggro and combo decks seem to have decent to good odds against phoenix, at least on paper and according to anecdotal evidence. as more data analysis comes to light, im sure a more accurate picture will be painted.
that said im still of a mind that 'diversity' at the scale it has been pushed in modern is a double edged sword. it allows for cycling and self regulation, but it also impedes the effect in large tournament settings. which is why people just dedicating more sideboard slots to curb whatever menace appears to be less influential and instead decks, emphasis on the plural, rising up to counter is what is required.
as for your last point, it is only relevant to a degree. yeah sure the format has been largely driven by community perception in the form of hype waves caused by whatever new thing is causing the biggest splash, however even allotting a healthy dose of 'benefit of the doubt' its clear that phoenix has posted results surpassing both humans and gds when they were at their most popular (2018/2017 respectively). to give some perspective, in 3 months UR phoenix has posted more GP top 8s than humans did in the entirety of 2018 and gds in the entirety of 2017.
that said one unremarked upon factor (may be minor, i dunno) is that the density of modern GPs within a given time frame has been unusually high. i mean march (including the first week of april) alone has the number of modern GPs you would typically see in the time span of half a year.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I'm a little curious about modern players' thoughts about this, so I hope it's alright I ask it here.
With the current modern meta and lots of talks about banning three or four cards (I haven't been into modern until recently, so I'm not sure if there's always been a few cards people talk about needing a ban or a bad meta)
What would your thoughts be about the rumoured new non rotating format that starts from Shadows over Innistrad? Would modern players who are frustrated/tired with the meta and some of the cards that aren't seeing a ban be interested in that format?
Would you just regard it as a "modern light" and be too weak compared to the modern card pool?
I played 20 odd years ago, didn't touch magic cards for 17-18'ish years and then got back into it pretty deep again, but I've only been focused on Standard for more competitive play. I've been getting way more interested in modern since the last standard rotation, but I don't have a full modern deck that could last at FNM yet. Still kinda deciding which deck to put my money into (but I should probably wait until after Modern Horizons come out.... but I don't want to wait that long hehe)
I think that new non rotating format could be cool, but mostly because I wouldn't have to buy some really expensive cards hehe.
Anyway. I'm just curious to hear what people here think about a new non rotating format if you're you see too many problems with current modern.
I'm a little curious about modern pleyers' thoughts about this, so I hope it's alright I ask it here.
With the current modern meta and lots of talks about banning three or four cards (I haven't been into modern until recently, so I'm not sure if there's always been a few cards people talk about needing a ban or a bad meta)
What would your thoughts be about the rumoured new non rotating format that starts from Shadows over Innistrad? Would modern players who are frustrated/tired with the meta and some of the cards that aren't seeing a ban be interested in that format?
Would you just regard it as a "modern light" and be too weak compared to the modern card pool?
I played 20 odd years ago, didn't touch magic cards for 17-18'ish years and then got back into it pretty deep again, but I've only been focused on Standard for more competitive play. I've been getting way more interested in modern since the last standard rotation, but I don't have a full modern deck that could last at FNM yet. Still kinda deciding which deck to put my money into (but I should probably wait until after Modern Horizons come out.... but I don't want to wait that long hehe)
I think that new non rotating format could be cool, but mostly because I wouldn't have to buy some really expensive cards hehe.
Anyway. I'm just curious to hear what people here think about a new non rotating format if you're you see too many problems with current modern.
I wouldn't like that but this depends on who you ask. I enjoy Legacy more than Standard and I would prefer Modern to look a little bit more like Legacy, what you propose would reduce the powerlevel a lot and it could end up being a balanced and fun format but I think I wouldn't be excited to play it.
Anyway, since Horizons is going to bring some Legacy cards into Modern I think Wizards take is more alligned with what I would prefer, I'd rather have Counterspell instead of forcing people into Cancel, have Thoughtseize instead of Transgress the Mind, etc
Being a balanced and fun format but I think I wouldn't be excited to play it.
Hehe, that's kinda exactly how I feel about standard after the last rotation. The decks feel very weak and I miss the power level of my older cards. Kinda why I've been getting more into watching modern and stuff like that. Just haven't settled on which deck I really want to play since there's a couple I like.
the new non-rotating format certainly has the potential to be attractive as an alternative to vanilla modern, and would certainly siphon off some modern players as a result. the keyword there being 'potential' because frankly there are just too many unknowns to tell how things will shake out. what sets it will include, how well it will be balanced, the archetypes and gameplay represented, arena/mtgo/paper support in the form of top level competitive tournaments, and how well it will be received by paper players. to top it all off the format being on arena and free-to-play might have some unforeseen ramifications down the road, specifically for how formats NOT on arena are perceived and their level of appeal.
for that last one, for example, formats like edh and modern (or even pauper) might actually become more popular as paper outlets for the game; because arena gives easy access to standard and standard+ meaning if a player is going to dabble in both digital and paper then diversifying their experience may be beneficial.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I'm quite surprised UR Phoenix actually hit 55% win rate vs the rest of the field. I thought it might have been less considering the law of large numbers.
Update to 1 of my previous posts (to account for places 16-32 @ Bilbao):
Tampa: 19.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so 31.25% of top 32 (4 in top 8) - Top 32 at 33 points. 33 points players continue until 49th place.
Bilbao: 22.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so also 31.25% of top 32 (2 in top 8) - Top 32 is a very clean cut off at 36 points for this event.
So based on these 2, I'd say UR Phoenix over-performed in conversion to top places relative to share of day 2.
While UR Phoenix had very strong Day 2 to Top 32 conversion, it does make sense that it was a few places away from being the best performing deck vs the field considering the law of large numbers and how it had something like triple the play rate of the next most popular deck.
If we were to refer to Karsten's article for matches played for UR Phoenix and the 4 decks that had better win-rate in non-mirrors:
UR Phoenix played a total of 274 matches while the deck with best win-rate, whir prison only played 66.
UR Phoenix played over 4x the amount of matches than Whir prison.
The 4 decks that had a better win-rate than UR Phoenix combine for a total of 284 matches played.
Because of this huge disparity in numbers, I'm not sure if it's fair to say UR Phoenix is 5th best deck because of its overall non-mirror win-rate. After all, it did over-perform in Day 2 to top 32 conversions
Do any of you think Whir prison could sustain a win rate anywhere near 66% or even 60% if it was played 4 times as much? I highly doubt it.
Edit:
Tobi Henke puts it into words better than me so I'll just quote him
But when evaluating these numbers, we also have to take into account that a larger population gravitates to more average performances almost by default. The main stream usually finds itself somewhere in the middle.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
Due to the history of flaming and trolling that has plagued the thread, we are implementing a new rule. For the foreseeable future, if you flame or troll in the thread, you will be receiving a week suspension immediately.
Ulka
What do you consider "trolling"? Usage of Sarcasm/Irony? Making hyperboles?
If somebody considers something as trolling 10 other people will go "Dafuq, why is that considered trolling!?!"
Some clear examples would be nice, so that everybody understands what is considered as "trolling" and what not.
E.g. this post can be understood as trolling or as a genuine question. I might get banned or I might get an answer, I dunno yet.
@idSurge: IIRC TC Delver and DRS Jund had similar numbers on several occasions, but I would need to look through the events to find it out exactly.
So, some questions from before the lock on the last page right after the weekend fireworks.
1.
@ktk: I tried to find you on Twitter, but I suck at searching. Has any deck, in a global sense, had such a weekend as this outside of Eldrazi (aka the most broken this format has ever been)? I struggle to think of any, that over a 'global' weekend in Europe, a GP in the US, AND SCG (which we know plays by a slightly different meta) all had the same trending pattern.
Phoenix's numbers shouldn't be that high, because it's not THAT good. It's not 20% good, it's 10% good. Dredge and other similar strategies keep its natural predators down, and I'm talking from much experience.
This was from a different thread, and it really needs to be understood because its 100% accurate. I've said since Phoenix became a thing, that it can be suppressed by 'fair' decks, specifically things like Rock/BGx, the issue is those decks lose to the rest of Modern! I mean I dont follow the Rock discussion, but does it beat Storm, Tron? Hollow Bois? Dredge? Terminus? Heck if I know.
The Rock was the only undefeated deck going into the top 8, I believe, at SCG Philly a few days ago. It would have taken the whole event down if not for a misplay against Phoenix in the finals. Yes, it can beat all those decks in the hands of a skilled pilot as Orr clearly demonstrated (pretty sure he even beat Amulet 2-0), so saying it loses to 'the rest of Modern' is simply not true.
One guy can run hot. If the deck really has positive rates against the decks listed, it's criminally underplayed and one of the best decks in the format by far.
Yeah, unfortunately that was published just before last weekend and it would be interesting to see the more updated numbers. Still, from this article you linked we can see that Phoenix had improved a lot its matchup vs Dredge with maindeck Surgical Extraction (from 16% winrate to 42%). As a result of this deckbuilding change, Humans had a better game vs Phoenix last weekend and I believe more people were playing Humans because of this.
I believe Phoenix is a good deck (not OP) that is reaping on a very favorable field: I think Dredge is actually more powerful than Phoenix and is making life hard for Burn because of Creeping Chill lifegain, which I think should be a bad matchup for Phoenix. Midrange decks are not viable unless they have a plan vs Tron, so in the end, Field of Ruin is a must for those strategies and that forces people to play many basics, so playing more than 2 colors is out of the question. If Mardu Pyromancer could have a Field of Ruin game vs Tron, I believe it could be another deck with a good matchup vs Phoenix.
Due to the history of flaming and trolling that has plagued the thread, we are implementing a new rule. For the foreseeable future, if you flame or troll in the thread, you will be receiving a week suspension immediately.
Ulka
What do you consider "trolling"? Usage of Sarcasm/Irony? Making hyperboles?
If somebody considers something as trolling 10 other people will go "Dafuq, why is that considered trolling!?!"
Some clear examples would be nice, so that everybody understands what is considered as "trolling" and what not.
E.g. this post can be understood as trolling or as a genuine question. I might get banned or I might get an answer, I dunno yet.
Greetings,
Kathal
Read the Original Post of the thread for the definition. If you have more questions from there please let me know.
From personal experience bad matchups (ie 45% and less) for phoenix are, in no particular order:
UWx Control/Midrange, BGx, Prison decks like Free Win Red and 4c Whir, Ad Nauseam and Storm.
Personally, I've had positive matchups with Tron/Titanshift but haven't played them that much. Humans and Vizier are weird and draw dependent so I'd toss them on the 50-50 side. Same with Burn, if Phoenix doesn't have its fast draws, you're probably losing the game.
A note that should be interesting from my playgroup and GP testing teams: GB Rock has a pretty good range of win %, but it doesn't have free wins. It has teeth against big mana and Dredge and Control. It REALLY beats 4C Whir and variants of it.
Another thing of interest is: Im not familiar with the latest Jund lists, but our Jund player has been playing 2-3 Anger of the Gods maindeck, and a couple of Coursers and it's been really good against Phoenix/Dredge/Bridgevine. If most lists haven't evolved, then it might have to do with player bias and inertia.
I started playing 4C Whir/Thopter Prison decks the past couple of months and I'll say that it beats most if not all of the top decks at the moment, which was a point I stressed to my friends that went to Bilbao. I changed a lot of minds and anyone that could play red put a Shatterstorm in their sideboards specifically for this deck.
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I just can't accept a 1cmc card with such a high potential card advantage and no drawback. At it's worst it upgrades 2 cards in your hand, at it's best you discard 2 Phoenix for what is essentially "Draw 4".
"Reveal a Dragon"
GP Portland (12/08) - 2 copies (kci legal)
GP Oakland (1/06) - 1 copy (kci legal)
GP Toronto (2/10) - 2 copies
GP Los Angeles (3/02) - 2 copies
GP Bilbao (3/15) - 2 copies
GP Tampa (3/15) - 4 copies
In a little over 3 months the deck has gotten 13 top8s.
at this trajectory, if these results continue up through the mythic championship, im not sure even the promise of modern horizons can spare the deck. we will see what happens though.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)ridiculous
Warning issued for flaming. --CavalryWolfPack
@ktk: I tried to find you on Twitter, but I suck at searching. Has any deck, in a global sense, had such a weekend as this outside of Eldrazi (aka the most broken this format has ever been)? I struggle to think of any, that over a 'global' weekend in Europe, a GP in the US, AND SCG (which we know plays by a slightly different meta) all had the same trending pattern.
@Renegade Rallier: You are right.
@Everyone else: We dont want bans right? We all know Twin never hit these numbers right? We know that taking out the 'best deck' over and over and over, does nothing right?
We can (and almost certainly Wizards will) wait until Horizons. What equity can they gain by nuking 6+ decks, and leaving us with Stirrings (which WILL) rise up to fill the void if they ban looting? Please people, think through the logical steps.
What happened when BBE and Jace came off. Did you play then? I did. Fair decks rose up! Did BBE make Jund actually good? lol NO! Did it matter? Absolutely not. Unban's, shaped the meta for a time.
Lets continue this mental exercise. Is Containment Priest going to do anything? Not on its own! You just delay your own development, and honestly I would probably rather hope and pray to spin that Terminus wheel. Would it help things? Sure, one more tool for the toolbox of Humans, and GWx fair decks (that are literally unplayable if you actually care to take part in the 'winners meta').
OK, so thats not it. Planar Void Well the cost is right for Modern, and its an enchantment that at least Phoenix struggles against (like Runed Halo that NeoThinker loves to an unhealthy degree on Twitter) so you put that into Jund/Junk/Rock (Rock, personally) and that helps, but as correctly noted there are other paths for Phoenix, and Dredge runs removal for a reason (RIP actually hurts Dredge).
OK so now we have 2 options, are we getting any help for URx control? You know, the archetype that Wizards tried 3 or 4 times to help out? That is NOT good in the face of these Looting and Stirrings decks?
Its gotta be Daze or something like it. People dont like FoW, fine, whatever. So lets at least try Daze. Well Phoenix could play Daze. Counterspell? lol dont make me laugh. The only format Counterspell is legal in, in which it sees play, is Pauper.
So we have 3 old designs, powerful in their own right. Will those be enough? Will those apply enough power to reactive or midrange (and no Phoenix is not midrange what an utterly LAUGHABLE statement) to bring them back up to Phoenix and Dredge? REALLY?
I think not.
Horizon's has the potential to be great, but until there is something to punish tapping out, nothing will reward players more than playing proactively in Modern and racing. We dont need definitions for 'fair' 'unfair' 'linear' or 'interactive'.
Proactive is easy. If you can goldfish your hand over and over and over, you are proactive. Try that with a Blue Moon hand, with Remands, Cryptics, and Spell Snare looking back at you.
You dont need to ban 7+ decks (if you ban looting, you better come at Stirrings or we are in the same place in 6 months) you simply need to look at the ban list and figure it out.
EDIT: Oh and if you think this is healthy, you are a hardcore spike that probably though Eldrazi was a fine format. Modern is sick, to the core.
Spirits
This transformative nature of the deck and angle of attack that pyromancer's ascension gives the deck is pretty powerful as well.
An example of this is the Dylan Donnegan match where he was able to cycle through his entire deck at one life and kill his opponent from 21 life in a very storm-esque fashion.
The xerox nature of the deck is why it can transform into ascension so easily. Multiple people pointed out this as a very big possibility post KCI ban and it seems they were correct that those decks would pick up the metashare.
Hopefully, MH and WAR come with some tools that fair decks need again to fight this. As I've stated, I do not think that control decks are far off and don't need insane answers printed but we do need some additional tools to win games.
When the thread is unlocked if people continue to flame and troll, we will begin suspensions immediately.
This is the last warning.
Ulka and the Moderating Team
Due to the history of flaming and trolling that has plagued the thread, we are implementing a new rule. For the foreseeable future, if you flame or troll in the thread, you will be receiving a week suspension immediately.
Ulka
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This was from a different thread, and it really needs to be understood because its 100% accurate. I've said since Phoenix became a thing, that it can be suppressed by 'fair' decks, specifically things like Rock/BGx, the issue is those decks lose to the rest of Modern! I mean I dont follow the Rock discussion, but does it beat Storm, Tron? Hollow Bois? Dredge? Terminus? Heck if I know.
Spirits
The Rock was the only undefeated deck going into the top 8, I believe, at SCG Philly a few days ago. It would have taken the whole event down if not for a misplay against Phoenix in the finals. Yes, it can beat all those decks in the hands of a skilled pilot as Orr clearly demonstrated (pretty sure he even beat Amulet 2-0), so saying it loses to 'the rest of Modern' is simply not true.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
I'm beginning to think that the power of that deck is undervalued. I think it is beatable, but not as easyly as it's being said. If it lose only to a category of decks (midrange/control) we may have a problem.
I'm waiting for other events to see if the format can self regulate even without Horizon.
The fact that the format sometimes seems broken but it can come back as ok (as happened last year with humans and shadow decks) makes me like it even more.
This could be a really interesting point.
Modern:
Just a thing about this article that is not considered and might be impactful: In a field where 20% of the players are on the same deck, there is a much higher chance for that deck to play a mirror match, which will inevitably account 1 win and 1 loss for the deck, thus moving its overall winrate closer to 50%Never mind, the numbers are for non-mirror matchesIt would be great to know the matchup analysis like Tobi Henke did after Portland. I think that would be much more indicative of how well does Phoenix performs vs the rest of the field. Phoenix already had some data there and besides the Dredge matchup which seems terrible, everything else is either favorable or at least you can put a fight (36,4% vs Jund, second worst matchup)
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
phoenix doesnt only lose to midrange and control. even if you categorize whir decks as control plenty of aggro and combo decks seem to have decent to good odds against phoenix, at least on paper and according to anecdotal evidence. as more data analysis comes to light, im sure a more accurate picture will be painted.
that said im still of a mind that 'diversity' at the scale it has been pushed in modern is a double edged sword. it allows for cycling and self regulation, but it also impedes the effect in large tournament settings. which is why people just dedicating more sideboard slots to curb whatever menace appears to be less influential and instead decks, emphasis on the plural, rising up to counter is what is required.
as for your last point, it is only relevant to a degree. yeah sure the format has been largely driven by community perception in the form of hype waves caused by whatever new thing is causing the biggest splash, however even allotting a healthy dose of 'benefit of the doubt' its clear that phoenix has posted results surpassing both humans and gds when they were at their most popular (2018/2017 respectively). to give some perspective, in 3 months UR phoenix has posted more GP top 8s than humans did in the entirety of 2018 and gds in the entirety of 2017.
that said one unremarked upon factor (may be minor, i dunno) is that the density of modern GPs within a given time frame has been unusually high. i mean march (including the first week of april) alone has the number of modern GPs you would typically see in the time span of half a year.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Not sure it it was posted already in the thread.
Magic Fest Los Angeles 2019
Top 8
1st place - UR Phoenix
2nd place - Hardened Scales
3-4 - Hardened Scales, Dredge
5-8 - UR Phoenix, Grixis Shadow, Dredge, Titanshift
https://decks.tcgplayer.com/Magic/deck/search?format=Modern&location=magicfest-los-angeles-2019&utm_source=Newsletter Subscribers&utm_campaign=1d454f1a11-buy_magic_newsletter_03042019&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_38eb01aa91-1d454f1a11-128001453
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
With the current modern meta and lots of talks about banning three or four cards (I haven't been into modern until recently, so I'm not sure if there's always been a few cards people talk about needing a ban or a bad meta)
What would your thoughts be about the rumoured new non rotating format that starts from Shadows over Innistrad? Would modern players who are frustrated/tired with the meta and some of the cards that aren't seeing a ban be interested in that format?
Would you just regard it as a "modern light" and be too weak compared to the modern card pool?
I played 20 odd years ago, didn't touch magic cards for 17-18'ish years and then got back into it pretty deep again, but I've only been focused on Standard for more competitive play. I've been getting way more interested in modern since the last standard rotation, but I don't have a full modern deck that could last at FNM yet. Still kinda deciding which deck to put my money into (but I should probably wait until after Modern Horizons come out.... but I don't want to wait that long hehe)
I think that new non rotating format could be cool, but mostly because I wouldn't have to buy some really expensive cards hehe.
Anyway. I'm just curious to hear what people here think about a new non rotating format if you're you see too many problems with current modern.
I wouldn't like that but this depends on who you ask. I enjoy Legacy more than Standard and I would prefer Modern to look a little bit more like Legacy, what you propose would reduce the powerlevel a lot and it could end up being a balanced and fun format but I think I wouldn't be excited to play it.
Anyway, since Horizons is going to bring some Legacy cards into Modern I think Wizards take is more alligned with what I would prefer, I'd rather have Counterspell instead of forcing people into Cancel, have Thoughtseize instead of Transgress the Mind, etc
Hehe, that's kinda exactly how I feel about standard after the last rotation. The decks feel very weak and I miss the power level of my older cards. Kinda why I've been getting more into watching modern and stuff like that. Just haven't settled on which deck I really want to play since there's a couple I like.
for that last one, for example, formats like edh and modern (or even pauper) might actually become more popular as paper outlets for the game; because arena gives easy access to standard and standard+ meaning if a player is going to dabble in both digital and paper then diversifying their experience may be beneficial.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Update to 1 of my previous posts (to account for places 16-32 @ Bilbao):
Tampa: 19.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so 31.25% of top 32 (4 in top 8) - Top 32 at 33 points. 33 points players continue until 49th place.
Bilbao: 22.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so also 31.25% of top 32 (2 in top 8) - Top 32 is a very clean cut off at 36 points for this event.
So based on these 2, I'd say UR Phoenix over-performed in conversion to top places relative to share of day 2.
Counted from: https://www.channelfireball.com/the-9th-16th-place-decklists-of-grand-prix-bilbao/
and https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRNjbzrDeyG6-NV3rvYNuyhQTCF1y9h52ufa-n9gZWP-COji9A_d0C_VMvv8WwDOLILuG79ZcV1adan/pubhtml?gid=1324917569&single=true
and https://www.channelfireball.com/grand-prix-tampa-9-32-decklists/
While UR Phoenix had very strong Day 2 to Top 32 conversion, it does make sense that it was a few places away from being the best performing deck vs the field considering the law of large numbers and how it had something like triple the play rate of the next most popular deck.
If we were to refer to Karsten's article for matches played for UR Phoenix and the 4 decks that had better win-rate in non-mirrors:
UR Phoenix 274 - 55.5%
Whir prison 66 - 66.7%
Dredge 85 - 60%
UW Control 61 - 59%
Affinity 72 - 55.6%
UR Phoenix played a total of 274 matches while the deck with best win-rate, whir prison only played 66.
UR Phoenix played over 4x the amount of matches than Whir prison.
The 4 decks that had a better win-rate than UR Phoenix combine for a total of 284 matches played.
Because of this huge disparity in numbers, I'm not sure if it's fair to say UR Phoenix is 5th best deck because of its overall non-mirror win-rate. After all, it did over-perform in Day 2 to top 32 conversions
Do any of you think Whir prison could sustain a win rate anywhere near 66% or even 60% if it was played 4 times as much? I highly doubt it.
Edit:
Tobi Henke puts it into words better than me so I'll just quote him
What do you consider "trolling"? Usage of Sarcasm/Irony? Making hyperboles?
If somebody considers something as trolling 10 other people will go "Dafuq, why is that considered trolling!?!"
Some clear examples would be nice, so that everybody understands what is considered as "trolling" and what not.
E.g. this post can be understood as trolling or as a genuine question. I might get banned or I might get an answer, I dunno yet.
@idSurge: IIRC TC Delver and DRS Jund had similar numbers on several occasions, but I would need to look through the events to find it out exactly.
@Depian: Here is the more up-to-date analysis: https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/the-most-massive-modern-metagame-matchup-analysis-yet/
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
One guy can run hot. If the deck really has positive rates against the decks listed, it's criminally underplayed and one of the best decks in the format by far.
Spirits
Yeah, unfortunately that was published just before last weekend and it would be interesting to see the more updated numbers. Still, from this article you linked we can see that Phoenix had improved a lot its matchup vs Dredge with maindeck Surgical Extraction (from 16% winrate to 42%). As a result of this deckbuilding change, Humans had a better game vs Phoenix last weekend and I believe more people were playing Humans because of this.
I believe Phoenix is a good deck (not OP) that is reaping on a very favorable field: I think Dredge is actually more powerful than Phoenix and is making life hard for Burn because of Creeping Chill lifegain, which I think should be a bad matchup for Phoenix. Midrange decks are not viable unless they have a plan vs Tron, so in the end, Field of Ruin is a must for those strategies and that forces people to play many basics, so playing more than 2 colors is out of the question. If Mardu Pyromancer could have a Field of Ruin game vs Tron, I believe it could be another deck with a good matchup vs Phoenix.
Read the Original Post of the thread for the definition. If you have more questions from there please let me know.
Ulka
UWx Control/Midrange, BGx, Prison decks like Free Win Red and 4c Whir, Ad Nauseam and Storm.
Personally, I've had positive matchups with Tron/Titanshift but haven't played them that much. Humans and Vizier are weird and draw dependent so I'd toss them on the 50-50 side. Same with Burn, if Phoenix doesn't have its fast draws, you're probably losing the game.
A note that should be interesting from my playgroup and GP testing teams: GB Rock has a pretty good range of win %, but it doesn't have free wins. It has teeth against big mana and Dredge and Control. It REALLY beats 4C Whir and variants of it.
Another thing of interest is: Im not familiar with the latest Jund lists, but our Jund player has been playing 2-3 Anger of the Gods maindeck, and a couple of Coursers and it's been really good against Phoenix/Dredge/Bridgevine. If most lists haven't evolved, then it might have to do with player bias and inertia.
I started playing 4C Whir/Thopter Prison decks the past couple of months and I'll say that it beats most if not all of the top decks at the moment, which was a point I stressed to my friends that went to Bilbao. I changed a lot of minds and anyone that could play red put a Shatterstorm in their sideboards specifically for this deck.