Hmm something interesting I just noticed is that I remember the format in the past being heavenly Overgrown Tomb decks vs Steam Vents decks and things certainly have shifted from that. Looking at all the GP/PT Top 8s of 2018 makes it certainly the year of the Hallowed Fountain but besides that there is a lot of diversity in color pairings.
UW being better against Burn than Jeskai is probably going to surprise a lot of people, but having played the UW side a lot, I believe it. Helix gives you time against Burn, but they're eventually going to draw more burn spells and kill you if you don't kill them quickly. UW can actually turn the corner and take control of the game in a way that Jeskai can't. Beyond that, most UW lists were running 1-3 copies of Timely Reinforcements in their 75, sometimes even with a copy or two main, and the angels in the sideboard are just lights out against Burn if you get to untap with them. I've even had games where I just raced them with a Clique because they side out their Searing Blazes against UW.
If you've ever played a 2 color deck this shouldn't be surprising. I consistently win games on blue moon against burn just due to my mana base. Same holds true when I play uw control. Like even games I don't cast timely/other lifegain spells.
Reddit thread is up. I made some small edits to the post but didn't make a lot of changes overall from yesterday. Thanks to everyone who looked it over! I assumed, hopefully correctly, that a lack of major feedback here is because there weren't too many significant issues.
Re: SCG Day 2
Phoenix is a very strong deck. It runs a crap ton of cantrips and has extreme velocity, making it the exact kind of turbo-xerox consistency machine that pros gravitate towards. It has a relatively low floor to success and a very high ceiling. I think I talked about this before, but again, I expect these qualities will drive more and more top players towards this deck in the absence of other options. It doesn't hurt that the deck is strong against some other strategies in the field.
If you cut gravehate, you will die against 70% of the field. This argument is an argument of past metas 4 years bevore this. Grave is key in our time... Wellcome in the reality, Wellcome in the future
So what exactly happens to the format if we ban both stirrings and lootings? Doesn't is slow down considerably which may be exactly what we are after. Also let's be honest here, these two cards are always the center of any degenerate deck that shows up in modern which leads to that deck getting banned and the cycle continuing.
banning stirrings and looting together isnt an absurd suggestion because there is no chance the outcome doesnt align with what some may want. its absurd because it would be an overreaction that comes at a huge cost. all for a probably.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Scapeshift, Jund with more Walkers, Amulet Titan with Serum Visions instead of Stirrings, Blue Tron
Scapeshift and BGx are even, Amulet Titan takes a big hit from Stirrings and even than it is not that great vs UW Control, Blue Tron would struggle against the rest of the field (Mono G Tron would still be better too).
So no, I do not really see a deck currently being able to consistently beat UW Control (besides G Tron), especially when UW Control can start to run the value packages again (stuff like Search).
Either way, won't happen most likely.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
i just hope people arent seeing UR phoenix as some sort of fair disruptive deck. it has some tempo elements, and titi gives it a strong angle of attack against certain creature decks. however its a GY aggro deck more akin to hollow one or storm than any sort of UR delver deck, or even twin.
3 in the top 8 isnt any cause for concern imo since the hype wave is cresting, but lets call a spade a spade; ur phoenix is the type of deck people would probably rather see less of rather than more.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Having played a decent amount of UR Birds, the deck is a combination of Dredge and Storm that isn't crippled by the hate used for either. It's a bit too linear and uninteresting for me to continue playing, but it is very powerful.
Having played a decent amount of UR Birds, the deck is a combination of Dredge and Storm that isn't crippled by the hate used for either. It's a bit too linear and uninteresting for me to continue playing, but it is very powerful.
And I never, ever, ever, want to hear about how Summer Bloom's ban hurt that deck in any appreciable way. If you can eat a ban and remain Tier 1, you where probably Tier 0.5 or 0.
EDIT: Anyway, even with only 3 KCI in Day 2, guess what, 3 KCI in the top 18. 13 Phoenix Day 2, 7 in the top 23.
Traditionally, tempo decks deploy threats and then protect the threats and/or disrupt the opponent while the threat wins. Midrange decks tend to disrupt first and then deploy threats on a safe board, although some will still seek to protect a deployed threat later. See the difference between traditional Delver builds (T1 Delver/Swiftspear, hold up protection/removal) and old school BGx (T1 DS into T2 removal/Bob into T3 Lily into a clock). GDS can certainly role-shift in matchups, but it's more fundamentally a midrange deck than a tempo deck.
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Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010
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If you've ever played a 2 color deck this shouldn't be surprising. I consistently win games on blue moon against burn just due to my mana base. Same holds true when I play uw control. Like even games I don't cast timely/other lifegain spells.
Spirits
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/afmpyd/2018_top_deck_matchup_win_percentage_review/
Blogpost: https://mtgmodernmetrics.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/2018-top-deck-performance-review/
Re: SCG Day 2
Phoenix is a very strong deck. It runs a crap ton of cantrips and has extreme velocity, making it the exact kind of turbo-xerox consistency machine that pros gravitate towards. It has a relatively low floor to success and a very high ceiling. I think I talked about this before, but again, I expect these qualities will drive more and more top players towards this deck in the absence of other options. It doesn't hurt that the deck is strong against some other strategies in the field.
On my phone, but how's the last mtgo challenge? Regardless if you discount the raw power of dredge go ahead and cut GY hate and hope to dodge it.
Spirits
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)So no, I do not really see a deck currently being able to consistently beat UW Control (besides G Tron), especially when UW Control can start to run the value packages again (stuff like Search).
Either way, won't happen most likely.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
3x Izzet Phoenix
2x Grixis Death's Shadow
1x Amulet Titan
1x Burn
1x Jeskai Control
At least this one looks pretty solid to me.
Modern:
Mardu Pyromancer
Grixis Shadow
Traverse Shadow
Jund
Abzan
The Rock
UWR and SCG, never change.
Otherwise, about what I expect out of the day 2.
Spirits
Healthy as in no midrange decks ever in modern.
3 in the top 8 isnt any cause for concern imo since the hype wave is cresting, but lets call a spade a spade; ur phoenix is the type of deck people would probably rather see less of rather than more.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Ehhhhh it has starts that can be Tempo, Aggro, or Midrange.
Funny, I came to the same conclusion.
And I never, ever, ever, want to hear about how Summer Bloom's ban hurt that deck in any appreciable way. If you can eat a ban and remain Tier 1, you where probably Tier 0.5 or 0.
EDIT: Anyway, even with only 3 KCI in Day 2, guess what, 3 KCI in the top 18. 13 Phoenix Day 2, 7 in the top 23.
Its a bit worrisome.
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)4 Prime Time
4 Azusa
The weird ass lands that tap for 2
The 'one turn kill' lands.
Pacts.
The Through the Breach is nice tech I've not seen before though, with the Emmy + natural (eerr for the deck) ramping it does thats a sweet inclusion.
Spirits
Traditionally, tempo decks deploy threats and then protect the threats and/or disrupt the opponent while the threat wins. Midrange decks tend to disrupt first and then deploy threats on a safe board, although some will still seek to protect a deployed threat later. See the difference between traditional Delver builds (T1 Delver/Swiftspear, hold up protection/removal) and old school BGx (T1 DS into T2 removal/Bob into T3 Lily into a clock). GDS can certainly role-shift in matchups, but it's more fundamentally a midrange deck than a tempo deck.