Like what? This was discussed previously several times and the general consensus is any upgrade was either fairly minimal, or a sidestep rather than a strict upgrade. Also, those proposing "but those upgrades!" haven't produced any hypothetical lists, showing what they would cut/change in order to make room for those "upgrades."
I don't want to argue with you and I agree twin should be unbanned. I think we should acknowledge the other sides concerns and admit that JTMS, AV and opt are POSSIBLE upgrades for the deck and have at least slightly increased the amount of risk in a twin unban.
And without going into the rabbit hole to far, those are just the obvious blue cards. If you went grixis k-command would be an upgrade and so on.
I agree twin should be unbanned but I don't think it is fair to say that there is zero risk or there have been no possible upgrades printed/unbanned.
Also I don't think it is fair to say all twin players had poor skills and used the deck like a crutch. Let's be fair to both sides.
Except Twin did that for 4+ years, and it had never been a problem before.
Let's not kid ourselves here, Twin got banned because WotC was in the habit of banning the best deck every year to keep Modern's power level in check, and Twin just happened to be the best deck of 2015. The community outrage over the Twin banning is precisely why WotC has let up on their bans. I have no doubt that GDS would have been banned last year, and probably Humans and KCI this year, under their old way of doing things. And under their current more conservative approach, Twin probably wouldn't have been banned.
i wasnt insinuating that twin was a problem. the 'problem' is one that got worse with time: the competitive crowd, namely the pro community, were either lazy or unmotivated to explore modern. ask yourself why wizards would feel the need to 'shake up' a pro-tour. its because the nature of the deck, its flexibility, its ability to give serious percentages to skilled players AND its access to those low effort wins. it was exactly what you would want if for some reason you didnt want to dedicate serious time to modern, possible because it isn't worth it when you play in so few modern tournaments a year relative to standard or limited.
why seek out some death's shadow deck with access to probe when you can default to any one of the 'pillars', and twin (or even pod) fit the bill perfectly?
so you can observe how the mentality has changed. its constantly about finding the 'new thing'. its almost like wizards wanted it that way.
edit: i will say that the mentality has truly and firmly shifted, and the way modern is now twin coming back wouldnt change that. too many good and powerful options, and the incentive to find more.
Like what? This was discussed previously several times and the general consensus is any upgrade was either fairly minimal, or a sidestep rather than a strict upgrade. Also, those proposing "but those upgrades!" haven't produced any hypothetical lists, showing what they would cut/change in order to make room for those "upgrades."
I don't want to argue with you and I agree twin should be unbanned. I think we should acknowledge the other sides concerns and admit that JTMS, AV and opt are POSSIBLE upgrades for the deck and have at least slightly increased the amount of risk in a twin unban.
And without going into the rabbit hole to far, those are just the obvious blue cards. If you went grixis k-command would be an upgrade and so on.
I agree twin should be unbanned but I don't think it is fair to say that there is zero risk or there have been no possible upgrades printed/unbanned.
Also I don't think it is fair to say all twin players had poor skills and used the deck like a crutch. Let's be fair to both sides.
Well let's take a look at each:
Ancestral Vision is unplayable trash no matter how you slice it. Nobody plays this card, and there's a reason for that: it sucks. My 4 copies that I paid nearly $50 a piece for are depressingly sitting in my binder because my soul can't take selling them for a 70% loss in value.
Opt is pretty good, but not better than Serum Visions for digging and you have to cut interaction to make room for it (in my list, to make room for 3 Opt, I cut 2 Spell Snare and 1 Dispel, which I'm not sure is correct).
Jace, The Mind Sculptor is... good? I guess? I played a lot of him in UW/Jeskai and there are a lot of times he resolves and then you just lose. Or he's stuck in your hand because you can't take a turn off holding up answers to resolve him, and you wish he was just another Cryptic Command instead. He is actually worse than AOT against go-wide aggro strategies, or really anyone presenting 2 or more meaningful threats. It is your interchangeable "4-5 mana thing you bring in for grindy matches" card that could be swapped between for Keranos, Ral, or AOT.
Many have said Search for Azcanta, not only is this too slow, it doesn't find creature combo pieces. I would not play, just as I didn't play in Breach Moon.
Abrade is likely the best upgrade. Helps with small creatures as well as problematic artifacts like Spellskite or Torpor Orb.
Sweltering Suns is... maybe? Helps with swarm creatures, draws a card if needed? It was OK in Breach Moon.
As for other color options, they were all statistically worse (had worse MWP) than UR builds on average. K-Command was legal for a year before Twin was banned and didn't help make the Grixis build better than UR. Maybe new things like Push and Brutality will? If it does, it loses speed and consistency; running fewer combo pieces, and loses the Blood Moon plan, which is particularly helpful against a number of top decks. I would personally love to experiment, as Grixis is my favorite 3-color combo and I have an entire foil/expedition/signed manabase for it. Much like old Grixis Twin, it would be a slower, grindier build.
And I didn't say everyone in the data sat had poor skill, I implied that they have average skill. Very few players are Reid Duke when it comes to mastering a deck. Sloppy play happens all the time, and I could imagine average players on MTGO are not playing as tight as say players in Day 2 of a GP. Sloppy or amateur or average play can be rewarded by Twin with free wins. There are no such free wins in Jund, and if you don't hold up interaction, you can easily get hosed.
Many have said Search for Azcanta, not only is this too slow, it doesn't find creature combo pieces. I would not play, just as I didn't play in Breach Moon.
Wanna know why you didn't play one or more in Breach Moon? Hint: it's in the name of the deck.
Many have said Search for Azcanta, not only is this too slow, it doesn't find creature combo pieces. I would not play, just as I didn't play in Breach Moon.
Wanna know why you didn't play one or more in Breach Moon? Hint: it's in the name of the deck.
I don't know what the point of this comment is; agreeing with me that it's bad in Breach, or agreeing with me it would be bad in Twin? Still curious about all these format-breaking "upgrades" everyone was talking about.
Many have said Search for Azcanta, not only is this too slow, it doesn't find creature combo pieces. I would not play, just as I didn't play in Breach Moon.
Wanna know why you didn't play one or more in Breach Moon? Hint: it's in the name of the deck.
I don't know what the point of this comment is; agreeing with me that it's bad in Breach, or agreeing with me it would be bad in Twin? Still curious about all these format-breaking "upgrades" everyone was talking about.
I'm assuming he's pointing out the fact that your original argument is a bit of a non sequitur - of course you wouldn't play Azcanta in a deck that turns all non-basics into Mountains.
The problem with Twin is that it was starting to become an auto-include in every Snapcaster Mage deck as a way to improve your % against the bad match-ups. I think the goal of diversifying finishers for Snapcaster Mage decks has been accomplished since Twin banning: in Grixis you have Death's Shadow, in Jeskai Nahiri got played for a time until better planeswalkers appeared, and straight blue red has Thing in the Ice and Through the Breach. Another issue is how competitive are those strategies, and Snapcaster Mage is probably at one of its lowest moments in Modern.
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The problem with Twin is that it was starting to become an auto-include in every Snapcaster Mage deck as a way to improve your % against the bad match-ups. I think the goal of diversifying finishers for Snapcaster Mage decks has been accomplished since Twin banning: in Grixis you have Death's Shadow, in Jeskai Nahiri got played for a time until better planeswalkers appeared, and straight blue red has Thing in the Ice and Through the Breach. Another issue is how competitive are those strategies, and Snapcaster Mage is probably at one of its lowest moments in Modern.
Why would you play Twin in a hard Control or Shadow deck. Where do you find the 9 to 10 slots?
I wouldn't play Twin with white precisely for that. However, Twin requires less set-up than Death's Shadow, although I'm not entirely sure it's a superior strategy.
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it doesn't just settle down into a new, slightly more powerful metagame with tiers 1, 2 and 3. It's an absolute nightmare as proven by the many NBM (no banlist modern) tournaments that we've seen happen globally over the last year or two. Always degenerate, never reasonable. Not worth the mess.
"Degenerate" is relative. The "format" is a trap for everyone, who doesn't spend a lot of time with it, assuming things like Hypergenesis, Eldrazies or Storm are THE decks to beat, in the end those are solid decks (but Genesis which just sucks), the real deal are the decks, which abuse the true broken cards, Top (+ Counterbalance, Terminus and co), Depths (both as the control as the all-in version), Chrome Mox + Mox Opal + Artefact lands (turn 1 Bridge, Chalice on 2, Thopter Sword, Whir,...), Clamp (Young Pyro, Elves, "traditional" affinity), DRS (shocking, BGx Midrange is quite good in NBL) and Dredge (Dread Return + full Dredgers can result into a turn 2 kill, especially with the new toys the deck gained over the last few years).
Sure, not many people are playing it and sure, nobody really "broke" it yet, but especially the SCG one from last year is VERY misleading on how the format usually plays out.
Exactly. Then everyone just ends up crying about the Eldrazi again.
Just some nitpicking, Eldrazi isn't even that good of an deck in NBL, Depths, Tezzerator, UW Counter Top and UR Clamp are all way better (and now also Dredge). Who cares if you can cast a Smasher on turn 3 when you need to deal with stuff like Bridge, a 20/20, Terminus or a boatload of Pyro Tokens.
Except Twin did that for 4+ years, and it had never been a problem before.
Let's not kid ourselves here, Twin got banned because WotC was in the habit of banning the best deck every year to keep Modern's power level in check, and Twin just happened to be the best deck of 2015. The community outrage over the Twin banning is precisely why WotC has let up on their bans. I have no doubt that GDS would have been banned last year, and probably Humans and KCI this year, under their old way of doing things. And under their current more conservative approach, Twin probably wouldn't have been banned.
Looking at the bans, Twin was the first and only one which got banned with this thought in mind (in addition to the other criteria). BBE was a try to get DRS Jund down, but keep things like BG, BUG and other fringe decks (Elves e.g.) alive. Didn't work out in the end, ate the ban afterwards. Summer Bloom violated the Turn 4 rule (in combination with the relevant metagame share), Eye of Ugin was Eye of Ugin. Pod, TC and DTT got explained really well in that update (hint: Angel Pod was broken), Second Sunrise got axed cause of time, Seething Song cause of Mancer and PiF, and that's basically it.
So no, the notion of "banning the best deck each year for power level/PT reason" is wrong, close to all of them were justified.
Also, the notion of "Twin did that for 4+ years and it had never been a problem before", Pod did the same thing and still ate a ban in the end. Decks improve usually over time so there might be a tipping point at some point and which makes the deck break one of the metrics used for banning reason.
Like what? This was discussed previously several times and the general consensus is any upgrade was either fairly minimal, or a sidestep rather than a strict upgrade. Also, those proposing "but those upgrades!" haven't produced any hypothetical lists, showing what they would cut/change in order to make room for those "upgrades."
Honestly? I do not like that list at all. Elektrolyze is hot garbage nowadays (only somewhat decent vs Humans, that's it) and the SB looks REALLY wonky, cause Blood Moon does close to nothing, no graveyard hate at all (1 of Relic, good luck finding it...), artefact hate is also quite spare (you only have 2 Abrades, which will not be enough vs Scaled Affinity/KCI/Lantern/Grindfather/..., especially without any form of other cheap interaction but Remand).
If I would need to play Twin in that shell, I wouldn't play it, cause it is just bad.
Greetings,
Kathal
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Please ban this Twin discussion. The arguments that twin defenders present in here are not only wrong, but biased to the core as well. I literally made 2 huge posts, explaining the 6 new cards Twin would get(@KTK also made a similar post [the one who mentioned me]), and @cfpm and @id straight up ignore those posts. For example, saying Jace, the mind sculptor is whatever in the Twin deck is a remarkably, exceptionally weird and wrong statement to make. Saying Opt is bad also. Not thinking cards like Field of ruin, Ral, izzet viceroy, other sideboard cards like Ceremonious Rejection, Disdainful Stroke is weird also. Abrade would also be a great inclusion but you guys know that. The final straw is not thinking about Grixis Twin. To go on, @cf and @id also continue presenting arguments which are biased, then saying it's "the general consensus". That's now that you should do in a forum, if you ask me. I think you would be better off discussing with people, actually hearing them out.
So, the general consensus @cfusionpm, is that Twin would get huge upgrade in many cards and Jace could break the archetype wide open. Now, that's up for a debate. Up for a discussion.
For the sake of the thread, ban Twin again so that we can have a meaningful discussion.. Because Twin is causing the discussion to be stellar, and it's warping the whole discussion around it. Is Sun bright? You should unban Twin. Is summer hot? Twin should be freed.
Listen, @cfp, I know Twin was very good, I know it was super fun, and I know that Twin gave to the people the impression that were better than they indeed were. I can get that, you feel near to invinsible with that deck.
On other news, I hope Faithless Looting is safe. It's one of the coolest cards in Modern and it's a net positive for the format. This Phoenix deck for example is the deck that a Delver of Secrets player should play(me, for example). Now, before you call me biased, my love for GDS is too big, so I have not invested into UR Phoenix up to now. Still holding out to the next announcement for that.
@KTK, from a data based perspective is the whole UR Phoenix deck totally safe for now? Should people that want to play the deck invest into it with no fear?
My opinion is that Modern moves in circles. The Phoenix deck has a positive matchup vs Spirits(gut shot the Noble Hierarch, fliers that are blockers for other flying spirits that come back, fast clock, lots of bolts) and that's why it made 4 copies into the top 16 and took the latest GP down.
Who are you to tell people they are wrong and biased when you yourself have literal nothing but theories based on what you presume is an educated opinion, just like them. Everything you accused them of, you have done yourself just in the opposite direction.
Unless twin actually gets unbanned and played with, nobody has the ability to prove anything.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
They could actually ban things that weaken it opposed to banning twin itself again.
It was discussed awhile back but one of the options was to ban Exarch with Bounding Krasis as a replacement. It forces 3 colors that Twin players have already said were not as good as straight UR, and now it only has 3 toughness so it dies to Bolt among other things.
I'm sure there are other avenues to nerfing twin opposed to a reban that WotC could take.
WoTC could also take it to the extreme and ban deceiver exarch, pestermite, and bounding krasis when they unban twin. That leaves only midnight guard and village bell-ringer as the creature pieces in the splinter twin combo.
WoTC could also take it to the extreme and ban deceiver exarch, pestermite, and bounding krasis when they unban twin. That leaves only midnight guard and village bell-ringer as the creature pieces in the splinter twin combo.
That's totally overkill. Exarch could make sense, is the only creature that survives Lightning Bolt and would force players to play 4 Pestermite
Anyway, if they decide to unban it, why would something else need to be banned immediately? We don't know what would happen and banning things "just in case" is definitely not going to build trust with the players.
The price for banning Twin was very high. It nuked an entire deck and lots of people lost their petdeck. So from Wotc point of view is it really worth it to unban Twin?
What if Twin is rly too good? They would have to ban it again. Now imagine that outrage, because unlike GGT an entire deck lives and dies with 1 ban/ unban.
Those arguments were made for Jace. "What if it was too good so they would have to ban it again? People would be salty for investing in a card to get it banned again"
WotC took the courage to unban Jace as they believed if was safe for the format and ignored some market considerations (they ignored the "what if it had to be banned again" part, they just sold printed some more JTMS to "help supply"). If they consider Twin should be unbanned, they should not hold that decission because "maybe it would become too good and we have to ban it again and people are going crazy" as they didn't do that with Jace.
Regarding what would happen if it's too good? First, we'd have to see, maybe it's too good, maybe not.
In the case it's too good, many other people have suggested what I believe is the best idea: banning one of the creatures would make the deck worse without killing it completely, Deceiver Exarch being the most likely one.
Dredge lives on because there are more than just 2 dredgers and the mechanic itself is an enabler, not a piece of a two-piece combo so they are replaceable with one another, just slightly worse. The only replacement for Twin is Kiki-Jiki so the comparison with Dredge and GGT doesn't seem fair
For example, saying Jace, the mind sculptor is whatever in the Twin deck is a remarkably, exceptionally weird and wrong statement to make.
It's not that Jace isn't a strong card, he is, but we're talking about an upgrade of 1 or 2 slots, where he's replacing AoT (which wasn't a bad card itself) or a Keranos, who is one of the stickiest finishers in Modern. Whether you're playing 1 or 2 copies, he's an upgrade, but it's not like you're playing Jace where you were playing nothing before. He makes the sideboard a little better against the fair decks, that's all.
No one has said Opt is bad, I said I would play it, but you also have to be aware of the downsides of Opt vs. Serum Visions. Opt only digs 2 cards deep, SV digs 3. That's important for a 2 card combo deck. So while I do think the instant speed of Opt makes it worth it, I also don't think it's a strict upgrade. It's a sidegrade, really. And if you're running it alongside SV, it means you're cutting some of your interaction for it. It's probably a good change to make, but let's not act like adding 2 or 3 Opt to Twin's main deck suddenly busts it open.
I actually wasn't playing any LD in Twin before the ban, I was on BBD's 2 Loothouses and a Cavern build. Only about half of Twin players played a single GQ or Tec Edge. So we're talking an average of .5 copies of Field of Ruin upgrading on Tec Edge. This is a tiny upgrade.
I like the idea of Ral, I would probably give him a shot, but can you honestly tell me for sure that he's an upgrade over Keranos? It's not clear to me that he is. It would be fun to see, but there's a chance that Keranos is just better and Ral doesn't even get played in the deck.
Disdainful Stroke was legal alongside Twin for over a year, and we didn't play it. Rejection is a very nice sideboard card, I might play a copy or two of that, but one thing to think about is that it's only good against things that Twin was already good against, namely Affinity and Tron. I wouldn't be surprised if Rejection saw no sideboard play in Twin because we decided our colorless matchups were already good enough, and decided to use those slots for something like graveyard hate.
Abrade would also be a great inclusion but you guys know that.
One thing to think about in this case is that while Abrade has applications against both artifact decks and against small creature strategies, it is worse at killing artifacts than Ancient Grudge is. Eli Kassis was actually playing Grudge in his board instead of Abrade in his GP winning Phoenix deck, and it worked out well for him, as he ran into a lot of KCI. I think I personally would go with Abrade, but again, we're talking like 2 sideboard slots.
The final straw is not thinking about Grixis Twin.
Because we all think you're wrong that Grixis Twin would be better than Izzet, especially in this current meta. Grixis Twin was better against grindy fair decks, Izzet was better against linear aggro/combo decks. Which of those two things are defining Modern right now? And I think you're vastly overestimating the impact Push would have on that shell. First of all, how many copies are you even running? Old Grixis Twin typically ran 4 Bolts and 2 Terminates. Assuming you still want 1 Terminate for big stuff, that's 5 slots you're splitting between Bolt and Push. I assume they would go 3 Push and 2 Bolt like GDS is doing. So we're talking replacing a Terminate and 2 Bolts for 3 Push. I'm willing to say the Terminate is an upgrade, but losing Bolts makes me wince. It is probably better overall, but we can't act like Push is just free in the deck, you're making some concessions for it.
So, the general consensus @cfusionpm, is that Twin would get huge upgrade in many cards and Jace could break the archetype wide open.
It's a few small upgrades. Half a copy of Field, on average, replacing Tec Edge. ~3 copies of Opt that you had to cut some interaction for. Maybe you play Abrade over Ancient Grudge, maybe you don't, but it's a decision to make. 1 or 2 copies of JTMS over AoT, which is better overall, but AoT also had applications against aggro decks and in the mirror that Mind Sculptor doesn't have. Maybe a copy of Ral, but maybe Keranos is still just better and you don't play him. Maybe you play Ceremonious Rejection, but maybe you use those slots for something else, like graveyard hate.
So when I look at it, I see a few small upgrades that do make the deck better than it was in 2015, but is it better at the same rate that Modern as a whole has gotten more powerful in that time? Absolutely not, and I don't think it's close.
@KTK, from a data based perspective is the whole UR Phoenix deck totally safe for now? Should people that want to play the deck invest into it with no fear?
My opinion is that Modern moves in circles. The Phoenix deck has a positive matchup vs Spirits(gut shot the Noble Hierarch, fliers that are blockers for other flying spirits that come back, fast clock, lots of bolts) and that's why it made 4 copies into the top 16 and took the latest GP down.
There was an interesting article on CFB yesterday with the matchup data from GP Portland , and apparently Izzet Phoenix had the highest MWP at 57.1%, which he said was a record high in his data. He said it has two implications: that Phoenix' meta share would rise, and that its win rate would lower.
Looking at the bans, Twin was the first and only one which got banned with this thought in mind (in addition to the other criteria). BBE was a try to get DRS Jund down, but keep things like BG, BUG and other fringe decks (Elves e.g.) alive. Didn't work out in the end, ate the ban afterwards. Summer Bloom violated the Turn 4 rule (in combination with the relevant metagame share), Eye of Ugin was Eye of Ugin. Pod, TC and DTT got explained really well in that update (hint: Angel Pod was broken), Second Sunrise got axed cause of time, Seething Song cause of Mancer and PiF, and that's basically it.
So no, the notion of "banning the best deck each year for power level/PT reason" is wrong, close to all of them were justified.
I didn't say that every ban was related to this. First of all, in the initial banlist they basically banned all the best decks from Extended. After the first Modern Pro Tour, they banned a bunch of cards from all the best performing decks. About a year later, the two best decks were Jund and Storm, so BBE and Seething Song got banned. A year after that, Jund was still the best deck, so DRS got banned. A year after that, putting aside the obviously broken Treasure Cruise, the best deck was Pod, so that got banned. The next year, Twin was the best deck, so it was banned. I'm not saying that all of these bans weren't justified, but WotC was obviously actively pruning the power of the format to keep it more modest. It wasn't really until Pod when people were grumbling about this, and until Twin when there was a sizeable backlash. The backlash of the Twin ban caused them to back off being so aggressive with their bans, and I would say that everything that's been banned since has been justified.
Like what? This was discussed previously several times and the general consensus is any upgrade was either fairly minimal, or a sidestep rather than a strict upgrade. Also, those proposing "but those upgrades!" haven't produced any hypothetical lists, showing what they would cut/change in order to make room for those "upgrades."
The price for banning Twin was very high. It nuked an entire deck and lots of people lost their petdeck. So from Wotc point of view is it really worth it to unban Twin?
What if Twin is rly too good? They would have to ban it again. Now imagine that outrage, because unlike GGT an entire deck lives and dies with 1 ban/ unban.
If they unban Twin and it's still too good, you ban Deceiver Exarch. That's what they should have banned in the first place. The deck is still playable without Exarch, but it pushes you off the Izzet build, which was the best shell, and into a 3 color build. That's makes your Blood Moon sideboard plan much worse.
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Please ban this Twin discussion. The arguments that twin defenders present in here are not only wrong, but biased to the core as well. I literally made 2 huge posts, explaining the 6 new cards Twin would get(@KTK also made a similar post [the one who mentioned me]), and @cfpm and @id straight up ignore those posts. For example, saying Jace, the mind sculptor is whatever in the Twin deck is a remarkably, exceptionally weird and wrong statement to make. Saying Opt is bad also. Not thinking cards like Field of ruin, Ral, izzet viceroy, other sideboard cards like Ceremonious Rejection, Disdainful Stroke is weird also. Abrade would also be a great inclusion but you guys know that. The final straw is not thinking about Grixis Twin. To go on, @cf and @id also continue presenting arguments which are biased, then saying it's "the general consensus". That's now that you should do in a forum, if you ask me. I think you would be better off discussing with people, actually hearing them out.
So, the general consensus @cfusionpm, is that Twin would get huge upgrade in many cards and Jace could break the archetype wide open. Now, that's up for a debate. Up for a discussion.
For the sake of the thread, ban Twin again so that we can have a meaningful discussion.. Because Twin is causing the discussion to be stellar, and it's warping the whole discussion around it. Is Sun bright? You should unban Twin. Is summer hot? Twin should be freed.
Listen, @cfp, I know Twin was very good, I know it was super fun, and I know that Twin gave to the people the impression that were better than they indeed were. I can get that, you feel near to invinsible with that deck.
1. I agree, Twin discussion should be banned.
2. We should probably just stop now, but your hypocrisy is too great.
3. This is what would probably see play as level one after the ban, or something like it, though I disagree with a bunch of Todd's choices, he's a better player than me so what do I know. From the SCG Versus series.
Yep, no AV (its too slow for Modern) a few Opt (Serum is better) no Field (why bother when our Turn 3 play wants to be a Flash Creature) Jace is better than Ral in this deck you must agree, as its better draw which is looking for the combo, and then you talk about a few sideboard cards, that are far from 'major upgrades' to the deck.
The biggest upgrade would be Jace, and Jace without Terminus see's how much play in Modern?
I've conceded on several points about Twin.
I've accepted MULTIPLE data points about Twin from ktk.
I've provided actual review of the entire history of the format at the GP Top 8 level to show that if Wizards had not backed off on banning our decks, Affinity would have been next, like Twin, like Pod, and like Jund ate bans before.
I've not been unreasonable about the decks odds, and strength, and to say I've been biased, well...show me. Whats biased? Dont call me out when you are wrong.
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Maybe drs is something we need. Help vs gy decks, help vs aggro, and make some midrange decks have a little more chance. I realize how toxic it could be but modern imo is already there.
I don't think Twin talk should be off limits, but it needs to be stifled some tbh. Theres many times we begin talking about something on this thread and someone mentions Twin, and the same points come up over and over and warps the whole conversation. Things like KCI ban discussion, "winners meta" discussion, data points about Stirrings, etc, gets drowned out once Twin gets mentioned because a lot of people see it as The Solution to "fix Modern. I think it should be moved to a separate topic because it really has become its own topic that is outside the current meta and future of Modern discussion
I like his mix of main deck spells, but I don't really like the main deck Spellskites. It's not good against enough of the top decks to warrant the main deck spots. I don't really love the Forked Bolt either
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Maybe drs is something we need. Help vs gy decks, help vs aggro, and make some midrange decks have a little more chance. I realize how toxic it could be but modern imo is already there.
A fixed version of DRS would be a good addition to Modern. What if DRS could only be cast for G, was a 1/1, and the abilities only dealt or healed 1 damage instead of 2? Is that still broken?
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Maybe drs is something we need. Help vs gy decks, help vs aggro, and make some midrange decks have a little more chance. I realize how toxic it could be but modern imo is already there.
A fixed version of DRS would be a good addition to Modern. What if DRS could only be cast for G, was a 1/1, and the abilities only dealt or healed 1 damage instead of 2? Is that still broken?
Maybe drs is something we need. Help vs gy decks, help vs aggro, and make some midrange decks have a little more chance. I realize how toxic it could be but modern imo is already there.
I would love to play DRS again but I am afraid WotC is not even close to consider him for Modern when he has been recently banned in Legacy. He really helps with most of the problems the format is facing but in the long run, I am afraid it would limit deckbuilding -> You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.
I don't want to argue with you and I agree twin should be unbanned. I think we should acknowledge the other sides concerns and admit that JTMS, AV and opt are POSSIBLE upgrades for the deck and have at least slightly increased the amount of risk in a twin unban.
And without going into the rabbit hole to far, those are just the obvious blue cards. If you went grixis k-command would be an upgrade and so on.
I agree twin should be unbanned but I don't think it is fair to say that there is zero risk or there have been no possible upgrades printed/unbanned.
Also I don't think it is fair to say all twin players had poor skills and used the deck like a crutch. Let's be fair to both sides.
i wasnt insinuating that twin was a problem. the 'problem' is one that got worse with time: the competitive crowd, namely the pro community, were either lazy or unmotivated to explore modern. ask yourself why wizards would feel the need to 'shake up' a pro-tour. its because the nature of the deck, its flexibility, its ability to give serious percentages to skilled players AND its access to those low effort wins. it was exactly what you would want if for some reason you didnt want to dedicate serious time to modern, possible because it isn't worth it when you play in so few modern tournaments a year relative to standard or limited.
why seek out some death's shadow deck with access to probe when you can default to any one of the 'pillars', and twin (or even pod) fit the bill perfectly?
so you can observe how the mentality has changed. its constantly about finding the 'new thing'. its almost like wizards wanted it that way.
edit: i will say that the mentality has truly and firmly shifted, and the way modern is now twin coming back wouldnt change that. too many good and powerful options, and the incentive to find more.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Well let's take a look at each:
As for other color options, they were all statistically worse (had worse MWP) than UR builds on average. K-Command was legal for a year before Twin was banned and didn't help make the Grixis build better than UR. Maybe new things like Push and Brutality will? If it does, it loses speed and consistency; running fewer combo pieces, and loses the Blood Moon plan, which is particularly helpful against a number of top decks. I would personally love to experiment, as Grixis is my favorite 3-color combo and I have an entire foil/expedition/signed manabase for it. Much like old Grixis Twin, it would be a slower, grindier build.
And I didn't say everyone in the data sat had poor skill, I implied that they have average skill. Very few players are Reid Duke when it comes to mastering a deck. Sloppy play happens all the time, and I could imagine average players on MTGO are not playing as tight as say players in Day 2 of a GP. Sloppy or amateur or average play can be rewarded by Twin with free wins. There are no such free wins in Jund, and if you don't hold up interaction, you can easily get hosed.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Wanna know why you didn't play one or more in Breach Moon? Hint: it's in the name of the deck.
I don't know what the point of this comment is; agreeing with me that it's bad in Breach, or agreeing with me it would be bad in Twin? Still curious about all these format-breaking "upgrades" everyone was talking about.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I'm assuming he's pointing out the fact that your original argument is a bit of a non sequitur - of course you wouldn't play Azcanta in a deck that turns all non-basics into Mountains.
Abzan Traverse / Traverse Shadow / UR Kiki
Currently sleeved:
WUR Copycat ft. Stoneforge Mystic
Why would you play Twin in a hard Control or Shadow deck. Where do you find the 9 to 10 slots?
Legacy: UWR Miracles [https://deckstats.net/decks/44442/1092831-uwr-miracles-2]
Currently sleeved:
WUR Copycat ft. Stoneforge Mystic
5/8 in this top 8 does suggest otherwise, but the point both of us are making stands, NBL Modern is true degeneracy:
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/scg-no-banned-list-modern-roanoke#paper
Pauper: UR Puzzle Pieces
EDH: UB Phenax, God of Deception UR The Locust God UR Saheeli the Gifted WBG Anafenza, the Foremost
Looking at the bans, Twin was the first and only one which got banned with this thought in mind (in addition to the other criteria). BBE was a try to get DRS Jund down, but keep things like BG, BUG and other fringe decks (Elves e.g.) alive. Didn't work out in the end, ate the ban afterwards. Summer Bloom violated the Turn 4 rule (in combination with the relevant metagame share), Eye of Ugin was Eye of Ugin. Pod, TC and DTT got explained really well in that update (hint: Angel Pod was broken), Second Sunrise got axed cause of time, Seething Song cause of Mancer and PiF, and that's basically it.
So no, the notion of "banning the best deck each year for power level/PT reason" is wrong, close to all of them were justified.
Also, the notion of "Twin did that for 4+ years and it had never been a problem before", Pod did the same thing and still ate a ban in the end. Decks improve usually over time so there might be a tipping point at some point and which makes the deck break one of the metrics used for banning reason.
Honestly? I do not like that list at all. Elektrolyze is hot garbage nowadays (only somewhat decent vs Humans, that's it) and the SB looks REALLY wonky, cause Blood Moon does close to nothing, no graveyard hate at all (1 of Relic, good luck finding it...), artefact hate is also quite spare (you only have 2 Abrades, which will not be enough vs Scaled Affinity/KCI/Lantern/Grindfather/..., especially without any form of other cheap interaction but Remand).
If I would need to play Twin in that shell, I wouldn't play it, cause it is just bad.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Who are you to tell people they are wrong and biased when you yourself have literal nothing but theories based on what you presume is an educated opinion, just like them. Everything you accused them of, you have done yourself just in the opposite direction.
Unless twin actually gets unbanned and played with, nobody has the ability to prove anything.
It was discussed awhile back but one of the options was to ban Exarch with Bounding Krasis as a replacement. It forces 3 colors that Twin players have already said were not as good as straight UR, and now it only has 3 toughness so it dies to Bolt among other things.
I'm sure there are other avenues to nerfing twin opposed to a reban that WotC could take.
"Reveal a Dragon"
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Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
That's totally overkill. Exarch could make sense, is the only creature that survives Lightning Bolt and would force players to play 4 Pestermite
Anyway, if they decide to unban it, why would something else need to be banned immediately? We don't know what would happen and banning things "just in case" is definitely not going to build trust with the players.
Those arguments were made for Jace. "What if it was too good so they would have to ban it again? People would be salty for investing in a card to get it banned again"
WotC took the courage to unban Jace as they believed if was safe for the format and ignored some market considerations (they ignored the "what if it had to be banned again" part, they just
soldprinted some more JTMS to "help supply"). If they consider Twin should be unbanned, they should not hold that decission because "maybe it would become too good and we have to ban it again and people are going crazy" as they didn't do that with Jace.Regarding what would happen if it's too good? First, we'd have to see, maybe it's too good, maybe not.
In the case it's too good, many other people have suggested what I believe is the best idea: banning one of the creatures would make the deck worse without killing it completely, Deceiver Exarch being the most likely one.
Dredge lives on because there are more than just 2 dredgers and the mechanic itself is an enabler, not a piece of a two-piece combo so they are replaceable with one another, just slightly worse. The only replacement for Twin is Kiki-Jiki so the comparison with Dredge and GGT doesn't seem fair
No one has said Opt is bad, I said I would play it, but you also have to be aware of the downsides of Opt vs. Serum Visions. Opt only digs 2 cards deep, SV digs 3. That's important for a 2 card combo deck. So while I do think the instant speed of Opt makes it worth it, I also don't think it's a strict upgrade. It's a sidegrade, really. And if you're running it alongside SV, it means you're cutting some of your interaction for it. It's probably a good change to make, but let's not act like adding 2 or 3 Opt to Twin's main deck suddenly busts it open.
I actually wasn't playing any LD in Twin before the ban, I was on BBD's 2 Loothouses and a Cavern build. Only about half of Twin players played a single GQ or Tec Edge. So we're talking an average of .5 copies of Field of Ruin upgrading on Tec Edge. This is a tiny upgrade.
I like the idea of Ral, I would probably give him a shot, but can you honestly tell me for sure that he's an upgrade over Keranos? It's not clear to me that he is. It would be fun to see, but there's a chance that Keranos is just better and Ral doesn't even get played in the deck.
Disdainful Stroke was legal alongside Twin for over a year, and we didn't play it. Rejection is a very nice sideboard card, I might play a copy or two of that, but one thing to think about is that it's only good against things that Twin was already good against, namely Affinity and Tron. I wouldn't be surprised if Rejection saw no sideboard play in Twin because we decided our colorless matchups were already good enough, and decided to use those slots for something like graveyard hate.
One thing to think about in this case is that while Abrade has applications against both artifact decks and against small creature strategies, it is worse at killing artifacts than Ancient Grudge is. Eli Kassis was actually playing Grudge in his board instead of Abrade in his GP winning Phoenix deck, and it worked out well for him, as he ran into a lot of KCI. I think I personally would go with Abrade, but again, we're talking like 2 sideboard slots.
Because we all think you're wrong that Grixis Twin would be better than Izzet, especially in this current meta. Grixis Twin was better against grindy fair decks, Izzet was better against linear aggro/combo decks. Which of those two things are defining Modern right now? And I think you're vastly overestimating the impact Push would have on that shell. First of all, how many copies are you even running? Old Grixis Twin typically ran 4 Bolts and 2 Terminates. Assuming you still want 1 Terminate for big stuff, that's 5 slots you're splitting between Bolt and Push. I assume they would go 3 Push and 2 Bolt like GDS is doing. So we're talking replacing a Terminate and 2 Bolts for 3 Push. I'm willing to say the Terminate is an upgrade, but losing Bolts makes me wince. It is probably better overall, but we can't act like Push is just free in the deck, you're making some concessions for it.
It's a few small upgrades. Half a copy of Field, on average, replacing Tec Edge. ~3 copies of Opt that you had to cut some interaction for. Maybe you play Abrade over Ancient Grudge, maybe you don't, but it's a decision to make. 1 or 2 copies of JTMS over AoT, which is better overall, but AoT also had applications against aggro decks and in the mirror that Mind Sculptor doesn't have. Maybe a copy of Ral, but maybe Keranos is still just better and you don't play him. Maybe you play Ceremonious Rejection, but maybe you use those slots for something else, like graveyard hate.
So when I look at it, I see a few small upgrades that do make the deck better than it was in 2015, but is it better at the same rate that Modern as a whole has gotten more powerful in that time? Absolutely not, and I don't think it's close.
There was an interesting article on CFB yesterday with the matchup data from GP Portland
, and apparently Izzet Phoenix had the highest MWP at 57.1%, which he said was a record high in his data. He said it has two implications: that Phoenix' meta share would rise, and that its win rate would lower.
I didn't say that every ban was related to this. First of all, in the initial banlist they basically banned all the best decks from Extended. After the first Modern Pro Tour, they banned a bunch of cards from all the best performing decks. About a year later, the two best decks were Jund and Storm, so BBE and Seething Song got banned. A year after that, Jund was still the best deck, so DRS got banned. A year after that, putting aside the obviously broken Treasure Cruise, the best deck was Pod, so that got banned. The next year, Twin was the best deck, so it was banned. I'm not saying that all of these bans weren't justified, but WotC was obviously actively pruning the power of the format to keep it more modest. It wasn't really until Pod when people were grumbling about this, and until Twin when there was a sizeable backlash. The backlash of the Twin ban caused them to back off being so aggressive with their bans, and I would say that everything that's been banned since has been justified.
You need more red sources! Old UR Twin ran 16 red sources, and you've only got 14. I would cut two basic islands, maybe for 2 Spirebluff Canals.
If they unban Twin and it's still too good, you ban Deceiver Exarch. That's what they should have banned in the first place. The deck is still playable without Exarch, but it pushes you off the Izzet build, which was the best shell, and into a 3 color build. That's makes your Blood Moon sideboard plan much worse.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
1. I agree, Twin discussion should be banned.
2. We should probably just stop now, but your hypocrisy is too great.
3. This is what would probably see play as level one after the ban, or something like it, though I disagree with a bunch of Todd's choices, he's a better player than me so what do I know. From the SCG Versus series.
2 Spellskite
4 Deceiver Exarch
2 Pestermite
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Vendilion Clique
4 Island
1 Mountain
1 Cascade Bluffs
1 Desolate Lighthouse
4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Spirebluff Canal
3 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls
2 Cryptic Command
1 Dismember
2 Dispel
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Opt
4 Remand
4 Serum Visions
3 Blood Moon
1 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Kozilek's Return
2 Negate
3 Surgical Extraction
1 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Forked Bolt
Yep, no AV (its too slow for Modern) a few Opt (Serum is better) no Field (why bother when our Turn 3 play wants to be a Flash Creature) Jace is better than Ral in this deck you must agree, as its better draw which is looking for the combo, and then you talk about a few sideboard cards, that are far from 'major upgrades' to the deck.
The biggest upgrade would be Jace, and Jace without Terminus see's how much play in Modern?
I've conceded on several points about Twin.
I've accepted MULTIPLE data points about Twin from ktk.
I've provided actual review of the entire history of the format at the GP Top 8 level to show that if Wizards had not backed off on banning our decks, Affinity would have been next, like Twin, like Pod, and like Jund ate bans before.
I've not been unreasonable about the decks odds, and strength, and to say I've been biased, well...show me. Whats biased? Dont call me out when you are wrong.
Spirits
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Spirits
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Probably not good enough then honestly
I would love to play DRS again but I am afraid WotC is not even close to consider him for Modern when he has been recently banned in Legacy. He really helps with most of the problems the format is facing but in the long run, I am afraid it would limit deckbuilding -> You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain.