I doubt terminus encourages interaction in the format as a whole. Creature based midrange such as GWx simply lose to Terminus. The best creature decks now are able to threaten the kill fast enough to force the 'Terminus now or lose' situations. Slower interactive GWx decks such as Value Town, Bant Midrange, Big Zoo can't do that.
"In response to your Miracle trigger, Chord for 2?" And I don't know what you want me to tell you, but slow durdly midrange decks aren't supposed to beat blue control, because it's even slower and more durdley than you, lol.
With Miracle trigger still on the stack, path your gaddock teeg? I've touched on this before in previous posts. You're not clocking UW anywhere near fast enough to tax their spot removal. They have all the time in the world to set up terminus with ample counterplay. Besides, the decks I referenced generally are unable to run a chord package because they're actually you know, packing main deck interaction instead of trying to goldfish a turn 3 or 4 kill with infinite mana.
Now you might be thinking, if that's the case, why not just adopt a chord toolbox package? Because if I'm doing that, I might as well play the turn 3 combo deck instead of trying to be fair and interactive. That being said, I fully admit playing the Druid combo/Humans/Spirits would be the best/smartest thing to do in a field as fast as this.
I didn't imply that midrange decks are supposed to beat blue control. But there was a time where the match up was relatively even with plenty of back and forth, maybe slightly favoured or unfavoured depending on each deck's configuration. You might remember when Voice of Resurgence and Kitchen Finks used to good cards, at least leaving behind something to rebuild with after a wrath.
GWx midrange vs UWR/UW/Grixis were the games I enjoyed playing the most, with a ton to think about on both sides. On the GWx side of things, when to push damage, when to hold back, is my recovery play good enough if I commit more bodies on the board to force the sweeper?
On the Uxx side of things, how do I use my spot removal optimally to play them into a situation where I can get 2-for-1s with electrolyze. Is it worth it to give them an extra land to unlock my counters? So on and so forth.
I'm sure you get the idea. Games like these don't happen anymore, maybe Modern as a format has just evolved past the point where that type of midrange can be good. Perhaps GDS or other flavours of shadow are the new de facto 'midrange'
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
wow. people talking about twin but actually thinking about what the hell the deck would look like and how that might challenge previously held assumptions. progress
I don't think there needs to be any ban right now but if there would be the need for a ban, shouldn't we aim at the core of the issue? Cantrips are quite easily replaceable so the deck would still be able to perform really well. Take Treasure Cruise as an example, people were already happy to play fetchlands and cantrips in their Delver xerox decks, getting an almost free payout was what made those decks busted, and they banned the busted payout card, not one random enabler that didn't see more than fringe play before the busted card was printed so in that scenario it would make much more sense to ban Arclight Phoenix and not Manamorphose
@gkourou Saying Grixis Twin is better since it has access to Fatal Push and that it would be the best deck of a format that doesn't even exists yet is quite absurd. First you ignore the problems that come from a 3-color manabase and the choices you would have to make while deckbuilding that will likely affect how the deck performs, it isn't very clear to me that would be the path, I could envision wanting black for discard to protect the combo, not for cheap removal. But the most shocking thing for me is that you think you can foresee what the best deck would be when we have absolutely no idea how the format would shape if that would be the case. Who expected KCI to become such a powerful deck when Scrap Trawler was printed? I would guess not many people. And it's the same with most previous unbans: WotC unbans Bitterblossom -> People go crazy thinking Faeries is going to be insane -> Tier 2 deck at best
You misunderstood me most likely, I do not wish for any bans, I just explained the reason, why Manamorphose would be a "better" target instead of Looting, IF you want to exactly hit Phoenix.
Manamorphose is (as far as I know) the only spell left in Modern, which allows you to cycle through cards for free, if you need to cast a certain density of spells to get your reward (Phoenix/TiTi) in one go, than something like Morphose is simply said the best card for this. It is free and cycles itself, so everything you would want.
Furthermore, the comparison with TC is kinda iffy, since TC is on a completely different level and it got enabled by just playing magic, which Phoenix is not (it specifically needs 3 Instants or Sorcs in ONE turn). That is a HUGE difference.
Regarding your comment regarding 3c manabases, as long as you are not greedy you will not have problems with it. You only start to get problems if you are greedy or just unlucky (which can happen with any manabase btw). I'm playing Counter-Cat (17 land 4c Delver deck with Nacatl) and the amount of mana problems I have with that manabase is less than 10% of the games...
Also you do not go into Black with Twin cause of the Discard (can be cute, but the tempo counters are generally better, especially in such a format), but because of the removal and grind elements (Push/Cast Down + K Command). Those allow you to slow the opponent down, since they just say "nope" while you buy more time to win the game via either the combo or beatdowns.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
UR Phoenix won though, so I think KCI is safe. I've heard from some people from my local store that Faithless Looting is more of a problem than Ancient Stirrings. I personally don't think so. Faithless Looting is at least somewhat hurt by grave hate while Ancient Stirrings is hurt by … super quick goldfish decks. I will say that Faithless Looting is definitely a hell of a card though!
Speaking purely for GP T8 numbers and nothing else, Looting isn't nearly as prevalent as Stirrings throughout 2018. If we compare all Lootings decks throughout the entire year to all Stirrings decks over the same time period, we find Stirrings at 27.3% of the T8 decks and Looting at 14.8%. SV/Opt decks are 21%. If you exclude the Team and PT events and look just at individual GP, it's 29.8% Stirrings, 13.5% Looting, and 21.1% SV/Opt. There's just no annual perspective where Looting is dominant at this level.
If we eliminate KCI from that data set, would it change drastically? The reason I ask is that if KCI/Trawler is banned and not Stirrings, then that might be a better outcome
If just KCI/Trawler takes a hit, we still are in the world where colorless decks (which have leaned towards combo lately) still have a dig-5 1 mana spell, which is so far above what the rest of the format gets in terms of digging power. I think WotC is more preoccupied with the simple fact of KCI's dominance, but I personally believe it would behoove them to try to take a broader picture of the format, which I hope would involve taking a look at not just the broken engine parts, but the enablers which allow decks to be so much more consistent than the "fair" competitors of the format.
I doubt terminus encourages interaction in the format as a whole. Creature based midrange such as GWx simply lose to Terminus. The best creature decks now are able to threaten the kill fast enough to force the 'Terminus now or lose' situations. Slower interactive GWx decks such as Value Town, Bant Midrange, Big Zoo can't do that.
"In response to your Miracle trigger, Chord for 2?" And I don't know what you want me to tell you, but slow durdly midrange decks aren't supposed to beat blue control, because it's even slower and more durdley than you, lol.
With Miracle trigger still on the stack, path your gaddock teeg? I've touched on this before in previous posts. You're not clocking UW anywhere near fast enough to tax their spot removal. They have all the time in the world to set up terminus with ample counterplay. Besides, the decks I referenced generally are unable to run a chord package because they're actually you know, packing main deck interaction instead of trying to goldfish a turn 3 or 4 kill with infinite mana.
Now you might be thinking, if that's the case, why not just adopt a chord toolbox package? Because if I'm doing that, I might as well play the turn 3 combo deck instead of trying to be fair and interactive. That being said, I fully admit playing the Druid combo/Humans/Spirits would be the best/smartest thing to do in a field as fast as this.
I didn't imply that midrange decks are supposed to beat blue control. But there was a time where the match up was relatively even with plenty of back and forth, maybe slightly favoured or unfavoured depending on each deck's configuration. You might remember when Voice of Resurgence and Kitchen Finks used to good cards, at least leaving behind something to rebuild with after a wrath.
GWx midrange vs UWR/UW/Grixis were the games I enjoyed playing the most, with a ton to think about on both sides. On the GWx side of things, when to push damage, when to hold back, is my recovery play good enough if I commit more bodies on the board to force the sweeper?
On the Uxx side of things, how do I use my spot removal optimally to play them into a situation where I can get 2-for-1s with electrolyze. Is it worth it to give them an extra land to unlock my counters? So on and so forth.
I'm sure you get the idea. Games like these don't happen anymore, maybe Modern as a format has just evolved past the point where that type of midrange can be good. Perhaps GDS or other flavours of shadow are the new de facto 'midrange'
i agree that things have changed, however i think you are laying too much at the feet of terminus. control has gotten some serious and meaningful upgrades. what is noteworthy about them though is the nature of the new additions and how they were upgrades.
terminus is an insanely powerful answer card, but what is different is how robust controls card advantage plan has become. teferi, azcanta, jace, hieroglyphic illumination, etc. what these provide for UWx is give them a top end that improves its ability to hold control once you get your hands on it.
any slower deck, including midrange creature decks, has fewer opportunities to slip something through or leverage value/card advantage tools to keep pace. you simply will not be able to grind with control with teferi + azcanta or teferi + jace in the case of UW. it just aint gonna happen.
where terminus fits in is that it lets you flip the script of a game at a moments notice. which then provides a window for the engine to get online. stuff like upkeep terminus flip azcanta, play teferi +1, pass with shields up. thats it. no coming back.
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UR Phoenix won though, so I think KCI is safe. I've heard from some people from my local store that Faithless Looting is more of a problem than Ancient Stirrings. I personally don't think so. Faithless Looting is at least somewhat hurt by grave hate while Ancient Stirrings is hurt by … super quick goldfish decks. I will say that Faithless Looting is definitely a hell of a card though!
Speaking purely for GP T8 numbers and nothing else, Looting isn't nearly as prevalent as Stirrings throughout 2018. If we compare all Lootings decks throughout the entire year to all Stirrings decks over the same time period, we find Stirrings at 27.3% of the T8 decks and Looting at 14.8%. SV/Opt decks are 21%. If you exclude the Team and PT events and look just at individual GP, it's 29.8% Stirrings, 13.5% Looting, and 21.1% SV/Opt. There's just no annual perspective where Looting is dominant at this level.
If we eliminate KCI from that data set, would it change drastically? The reason I ask is that if KCI/Trawler is banned and not Stirrings, then that might be a better outcome
If you chop KCI out of the data, Stirrings drops to 18.9% (individual GP /PT top 8, no team events) which is less than SV/Opt, but still more than looting. I still fundamentally believe people looking at Stirrings and looting are looking at the wrong cards. Yes they are enablers and good at what they do for the decks that can utilize those effects, but none of these decks are fundamentally a problem by any metric we can measure them against. KCI may be the exception to this, but I don't think we are looking at a Gitaxian Probe type of situation where 1 card was enabling a wide berth of turn 4 violators for example.
If just KCI/Trawler takes a hit, we still are in the world where colorless decks (which have leaned towards combo lately) still have a dig-5 1 mana spell, which is so far above what the rest of the format gets in terms of digging power. I think WotC is more preoccupied with the simple fact of KCI's dominance, but I personally believe it would behoove them to try to take a broader picture of the format, which I hope would involve taking a look at not just the broken engine parts, but the enablers which allow decks to be so much more consistent than the "fair" competitors of the format.
Well I am an advocate for unbanning of Preordain. Just because a card is powerful, in the case for Stirrings, doesn't mean they should ban it. We need to look at the data, and if it is drastically different without Ironworks, then we advocate to ban the problematic card directly, which would be KCI or Trawler
I would also rather see Preordain unbanned than Stirrings banned. I've said before that Tron occupies a unique but important role in modern as being the deck that is good against fair decks while usually being bad against unfair decks. Then the unfair decks lose to the fair decks. Tron existing (including with stirrings) creates another good matchup for Storm and Infect, which are both solid outs for jund, grixis shadow and burn. It is the paper in the rock/paper/scissors ideal.
I get it, though. Fair decks have an issue of needing the right answer at the right time. Preordain helps with that. I think there's also help in broad answers seeing more printings in standard. Joel Larsson on CFB today supposed that cards like Assassin's Trophy and Bedevil are appearing because WOTC wants to transfer to a best of one system mirroring the format they push on Arena. My opinions on that aside, the only way that can work while allowing midrange and control to even exist is to print broad answers for a standard format without sideboards.
This also...well it also means Counterspell seeing play is a greater possibility than when it finally got phased out in 8th edition.
I doubt terminus encourages interaction in the format as a whole. Creature based midrange such as GWx simply lose to Terminus. The best creature decks now are able to threaten the kill fast enough to force the 'Terminus now or lose' situations. Slower interactive GWx decks such as Value Town, Bant Midrange, Big Zoo can't do that.
"In response to your Miracle trigger, Chord for 2?" And I don't know what you want me to tell you, but slow durdly midrange decks aren't supposed to beat blue control, because it's even slower and more durdley than you, lol.
With Miracle trigger still on the stack, path your gaddock teeg? I've touched on this before in previous posts. You're not clocking UW anywhere near fast enough to tax their spot removal. They have all the time in the world to set up terminus with ample counterplay. Besides, the decks I referenced generally are unable to run a chord package because they're actually you know, packing main deck interaction instead of trying to goldfish a turn 3 or 4 kill with infinite mana.
Now you might be thinking, if that's the case, why not just adopt a chord toolbox package? Because if I'm doing that, I might as well play the turn 3 combo deck instead of trying to be fair and interactive. That being said, I fully admit playing the Druid combo/Humans/Spirits would be the best/smartest thing to do in a field as fast as this.
I didn't imply that midrange decks are supposed to beat blue control. But there was a time where the match up was relatively even with plenty of back and forth, maybe slightly favoured or unfavoured depending on each deck's configuration. You might remember when Voice of Resurgence and Kitchen Finks used to good cards, at least leaving behind something to rebuild with after a wrath.
GWx midrange vs UWR/UW/Grixis were the games I enjoyed playing the most, with a ton to think about on both sides. On the GWx side of things, when to push damage, when to hold back, is my recovery play good enough if I commit more bodies on the board to force the sweeper?
On the Uxx side of things, how do I use my spot removal optimally to play them into a situation where I can get 2-for-1s with electrolyze. Is it worth it to give them an extra land to unlock my counters? So on and so forth.
I'm sure you get the idea. Games like these don't happen anymore, maybe Modern as a format has just evolved past the point where that type of midrange can be good. Perhaps GDS or other flavours of shadow are the new de facto 'midrange'
i agree that things have changed, however i think you are laying too much at the feet of terminus. control has gotten some serious and meaningful upgrades. what is noteworthy about them though is the nature of the new additions and how they were upgrades.
terminus is an insanely powerful answer card, but what is different is how robust controls card advantage plan has become. teferi, azcanta, jace, hieroglyphic illumination, etc. what these provide for UWx is give them a top end that improves its ability to hold control once you get your hands on it.
any slower deck, including midrange creature decks, has fewer opportunities to slip something through or leverage value/card advantage tools to keep pace. you simply will not be able to grind with control with teferi + azcanta or teferi + jace in the case of UW. it just aint gonna happen.
where terminus fits in is that it lets you flip the script of a game at a moments notice. which then provides a window for the engine to get online. stuff like upkeep terminus flip azcanta, play teferi +1, pass with shields up. thats it. no coming back.
Am I giving Terminus too much credit? Perhaps, but I highly doubt so. My playgroup has a very dedicated UW control player. UW control is also the archetype I have the most testing reps again. He's been playing different iterations of UW against me for close to 3 years now.
You're right that UW has been getting steady upgrades over time (Teferi, Azcanta etc that you mentioned), but Terminus is really the straw that broke the camel's back. I will stress that this is against midrange specifically. Terminus is a necessary evil to fight decks that don't pay mana to cast their creatures.
The fact that it often costs a single white mana means that counterplay options are very limited, as are the timing window for those counterplay options.
Your last statement actually agrees with me though. I can fight through the slow incremental effect of Search, I can bolt or use creature combat to take down planeswalkers. It's possible to grind through all those vs Verdict/Wrath with resilient creatures like Voice or Finks, and in the absence of those, it at least gives me a free turn to rebuild.
Terminus negates all of that, leaves nothing behind, and can be cast on my turn for a measly 2 mana, likely able to remove or counter my follow up play with open mana still on my turn. That's the difference. That's why I don't think I'm laying too much at the feet of Terminus. And the rest is exactly as you say it, untap, slam the teferi and tick up against an empty board. Game over.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
The loudest voices have been screaming for Ancient Stirrings and Faithless Looting to be banned, and Stoneforge Mystic and Splinter Twin to be unbanned. I think the fact that Phoenix decks are still pretty new and the fact that they use a card from the newest set is going to spare it from at least this next banlist announcement. The calls for Looting to be banned is pretty new and not nearly as noisy, so I don't expect that either. I do expect Ancient Stirrings to eat a ban at this point, even if it isn't the right ban for KCI, because of the length of time people have been asking for it to be banned, and this latest GP finish with KCI gives Wizards the excuse to finally do so. If not Stirrings, I still expect some form of KCI ban next banlist announcement,it just has too much going against it at this point. I also think to balance that ban out, we will see an unban, at least of Stoneforge Mystic, as it's had the most calls for an unban, and is the safest choice. I unfortunately don't think it will do much for the format. Splinter Twin could go either way, it's probably the most contentious card on the list. I personally think it would be fine at this point to unban, but I know there are a lot of people out there who have very negative feelings towards Twin for some reason.
The worst possible outcome is no changes. If that ends up being the case, the correct move is probably to invest in standard now and prepare for whatever the next non-rotating format ends up being, because no changes indicates to me they've given up on the format.
I would also rather see Preordain unbanned than Stirrings banned. I've said before that Tron occupies a unique but important role in modern as being the deck that is good against fair decks while usually being bad against unfair decks. Then the unfair decks lose to the fair decks. Tron existing (including with stirrings) creates another good matchup for Storm and Infect, which are both solid outs for jund, grixis shadow and burn. It is the paper in the rock/paper/scissors ideal.
I get it, though. Fair decks have an issue of needing the right answer at the right time. Preordain helps with that. I think there's also help in broad answers seeing more printings in standard. Joel Larsson on CFB today supposed that cards like Assassin's Trophy and Bedevil are appearing because WOTC wants to transfer to a best of one system mirroring the format they push on Arena. My opinions on that aside, the only way that can work while allowing midrange and control to even exist is to print broad answers for a standard format without sideboards.
This also...well it also means Counterspell seeing play is a greater possibility than when it finally got phased out in 8th edition.
they could only do this by implementing the effects of the 2-hand system on arena. it would also have to be perfectly done, assisting in precisely equal amounts, in order to have paper and arena events mingle and coexist in one competitive system.
i think it is more apt to say that bo1 is influencing card design for the reasons you stated, and the likelihood of them switching over depends on their solution to the problem above.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Re: Stirrings
I posted some numbers on the last page about Stirrings vs. Looting/Opt/SV/Hierarch, but don't think those numbers support a Stirrings ban. The most-played Stirrings deck is KCI and KCI is a singular problem for a variety of reasons. Notably, it wildly overperforms in T8s relative to the share of players who enter events with it (this based on the limited Day 1/Day 2 samples we have seen in tournaments). By all available measures, its MWP is also well above other decks in the format. Tron, Humans, Spirits, UW Control, and others all hover in the 52% range. KCI is 59% in a similarly sized sample, which supports its strong GP performance this year despite minimal overall share. This reminds me of an old Stoddard quote about bans: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/latest-developments/using-real-world-data-2016-02-11 "The first, most obvious thing to look for is whether or not any deck has a positive matchup against every other major deck in the field. When your worst matchup is the mirror, chances are you are going to get banned. Even if, in the real world, the deck hasn't won a lot of tournaments, this is a clear sign that it is poised to take over at some point, and we should probably act sooner rather than later."
This line of reasoning, if R&D still follows it, definitely points to a KCI ban. If 2018 continued to prove this is the best deck in Modern, which it clearly is by almost all statistical measures I have seen and checked, then it is likely to see increased adoption. This compounds the diversity issue it might be presenting, and aggravates any other related issues such as battle of sideboards considerations, logistical problems (possible but unknown), and the idea that it is not "fun." All of those elements will likely combine to result in a KCI-specific ban, as no other Stirrings deck appears to be overperforming. That is why I think Trawler or KCI itself are the likeliest targets. Incidentally, those are also the targets I personally would go after if on R&D.
AS somebody who has not played KCI that much (only a couple of games to get a feeling for the deck), is there any card in the deck which could get banned which does not kill it (so more of an Summer Bloom ban instead of a Twin ban to say it this way)?
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Ichor Wellspring. Removes the piece that allows you to double-draw while also rebuying Eggs off of Trawler. If I wanted to hamstring the deck while leaving it technically alive, that's what I'd hit. Scalpel instead of a hammer.
Sai? Although it looks stupid on the ban list. Let them keep their main combo, but take out their alternate win-condition, making the deck less resilient as a whole.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
Ichor Wellspring. Removes the piece that allows you to double-draw while also rebuying Eggs off of Trawler. If I wanted to hamstring the deck while leaving it technically alive, that's what I'd hit. Scalpel instead of a hammer.
Terminus negates all of that, leaves nothing behind, and can be cast on my turn for a measly 2 mana, likely able to remove or counter my follow up play with open mana still on my turn. That's the difference. That's why I don't think I'm laying too much at the feet of Terminus. And the rest is exactly as you say it, untap, slam the teferi and tick up against an empty board. Game over.
Oh and people are not paying attention (or dont care about fair decks, which is fine) if they are not aware of this. Terminus is more than any other card or deck in the format, going to prevent fair creature based decks from ever seeing real play again.
Sai is new, and I don't think it's super necessary. It makes it much easier to fight through Stony, but I'm pretty sure he'd just get replaced with Thopter Sword in the side for the same basic effect
Stony Silence and Rest in Peace retain their effectiveness against Thopter Sword though. Frankly I think KCI is a cool combo, would be slightly sad to see it go. Just that the deck as a whole is too good with the resilience provided by a very strong alternate win-condition in Sai.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
Classic Eggs could easily exist even without KCI. It would use the Faith's Reward loop like the original did with Second Sunrise. It would be tier 2 at best, but it hasn't been innovated recently due to the rise of current Ironworks. We have gotten a lot more tools like Whir of Invention, so who know, it could be a decent deck. Can't foresee it being tier 1 any time soon at all though. I don't even think Second Sunrise version was tier 1, and the card itself wasn't banned due to power level/ meta share reasonings.
With Miracle trigger still on the stack, path your gaddock teeg? I've touched on this before in previous posts. You're not clocking UW anywhere near fast enough to tax their spot removal. They have all the time in the world to set up terminus with ample counterplay. Besides, the decks I referenced generally are unable to run a chord package because they're actually you know, packing main deck interaction instead of trying to goldfish a turn 3 or 4 kill with infinite mana.
Now you might be thinking, if that's the case, why not just adopt a chord toolbox package? Because if I'm doing that, I might as well play the turn 3 combo deck instead of trying to be fair and interactive. That being said, I fully admit playing the Druid combo/Humans/Spirits would be the best/smartest thing to do in a field as fast as this.
I didn't imply that midrange decks are supposed to beat blue control. But there was a time where the match up was relatively even with plenty of back and forth, maybe slightly favoured or unfavoured depending on each deck's configuration. You might remember when Voice of Resurgence and Kitchen Finks used to good cards, at least leaving behind something to rebuild with after a wrath.
GWx midrange vs UWR/UW/Grixis were the games I enjoyed playing the most, with a ton to think about on both sides. On the GWx side of things, when to push damage, when to hold back, is my recovery play good enough if I commit more bodies on the board to force the sweeper?
On the Uxx side of things, how do I use my spot removal optimally to play them into a situation where I can get 2-for-1s with electrolyze. Is it worth it to give them an extra land to unlock my counters? So on and so forth.
I'm sure you get the idea. Games like these don't happen anymore, maybe Modern as a format has just evolved past the point where that type of midrange can be good. Perhaps GDS or other flavours of shadow are the new de facto 'midrange'
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)You misunderstood me most likely, I do not wish for any bans, I just explained the reason, why Manamorphose would be a "better" target instead of Looting, IF you want to exactly hit Phoenix.
Manamorphose is (as far as I know) the only spell left in Modern, which allows you to cycle through cards for free, if you need to cast a certain density of spells to get your reward (Phoenix/TiTi) in one go, than something like Morphose is simply said the best card for this. It is free and cycles itself, so everything you would want.
Furthermore, the comparison with TC is kinda iffy, since TC is on a completely different level and it got enabled by just playing magic, which Phoenix is not (it specifically needs 3 Instants or Sorcs in ONE turn). That is a HUGE difference.
Regarding your comment regarding 3c manabases, as long as you are not greedy you will not have problems with it. You only start to get problems if you are greedy or just unlucky (which can happen with any manabase btw). I'm playing Counter-Cat (17 land 4c Delver deck with Nacatl) and the amount of mana problems I have with that manabase is less than 10% of the games...
Also you do not go into Black with Twin cause of the Discard (can be cute, but the tempo counters are generally better, especially in such a format), but because of the removal and grind elements (Push/Cast Down + K Command). Those allow you to slow the opponent down, since they just say "nope" while you buy more time to win the game via either the combo or beatdowns.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
If we eliminate KCI from that data set, would it change drastically? The reason I ask is that if KCI/Trawler is banned and not Stirrings, then that might be a better outcome
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
i agree that things have changed, however i think you are laying too much at the feet of terminus. control has gotten some serious and meaningful upgrades. what is noteworthy about them though is the nature of the new additions and how they were upgrades.
terminus is an insanely powerful answer card, but what is different is how robust controls card advantage plan has become. teferi, azcanta, jace, hieroglyphic illumination, etc. what these provide for UWx is give them a top end that improves its ability to hold control once you get your hands on it.
any slower deck, including midrange creature decks, has fewer opportunities to slip something through or leverage value/card advantage tools to keep pace. you simply will not be able to grind with control with teferi + azcanta or teferi + jace in the case of UW. it just aint gonna happen.
where terminus fits in is that it lets you flip the script of a game at a moments notice. which then provides a window for the engine to get online. stuff like upkeep terminus flip azcanta, play teferi +1, pass with shields up. thats it. no coming back.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)If you chop KCI out of the data, Stirrings drops to 18.9% (individual GP /PT top 8, no team events) which is less than SV/Opt, but still more than looting. I still fundamentally believe people looking at Stirrings and looting are looking at the wrong cards. Yes they are enablers and good at what they do for the decks that can utilize those effects, but none of these decks are fundamentally a problem by any metric we can measure them against. KCI may be the exception to this, but I don't think we are looking at a Gitaxian Probe type of situation where 1 card was enabling a wide berth of turn 4 violators for example.
Well I am an advocate for unbanning of Preordain. Just because a card is powerful, in the case for Stirrings, doesn't mean they should ban it. We need to look at the data, and if it is drastically different without Ironworks, then we advocate to ban the problematic card directly, which would be KCI or Trawler
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Spirits
I get it, though. Fair decks have an issue of needing the right answer at the right time. Preordain helps with that. I think there's also help in broad answers seeing more printings in standard. Joel Larsson on CFB today supposed that cards like Assassin's Trophy and Bedevil are appearing because WOTC wants to transfer to a best of one system mirroring the format they push on Arena. My opinions on that aside, the only way that can work while allowing midrange and control to even exist is to print broad answers for a standard format without sideboards.
This also...well it also means Counterspell seeing play is a greater possibility than when it finally got phased out in 8th edition.
Am I giving Terminus too much credit? Perhaps, but I highly doubt so. My playgroup has a very dedicated UW control player. UW control is also the archetype I have the most testing reps again. He's been playing different iterations of UW against me for close to 3 years now.
You're right that UW has been getting steady upgrades over time (Teferi, Azcanta etc that you mentioned), but Terminus is really the straw that broke the camel's back. I will stress that this is against midrange specifically. Terminus is a necessary evil to fight decks that don't pay mana to cast their creatures.
The fact that it often costs a single white mana means that counterplay options are very limited, as are the timing window for those counterplay options.
Your last statement actually agrees with me though. I can fight through the slow incremental effect of Search, I can bolt or use creature combat to take down planeswalkers. It's possible to grind through all those vs Verdict/Wrath with resilient creatures like Voice or Finks, and in the absence of those, it at least gives me a free turn to rebuild.
Terminus negates all of that, leaves nothing behind, and can be cast on my turn for a measly 2 mana, likely able to remove or counter my follow up play with open mana still on my turn. That's the difference. That's why I don't think I'm laying too much at the feet of Terminus. And the rest is exactly as you say it, untap, slam the teferi and tick up against an empty board. Game over.
The worst possible outcome is no changes. If that ends up being the case, the correct move is probably to invest in standard now and prepare for whatever the next non-rotating format ends up being, because no changes indicates to me they've given up on the format.
Commander
U Tetsuko Umezawa, Fugitive
RG Zilortha, Strength Incarnate
WB Amalia Benavides Aguirre
Cause Blood Moon was an actually good card back in the days
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
they could only do this by implementing the effects of the 2-hand system on arena. it would also have to be perfectly done, assisting in precisely equal amounts, in order to have paper and arena events mingle and coexist in one competitive system.
i think it is more apt to say that bo1 is influencing card design for the reasons you stated, and the likelihood of them switching over depends on their solution to the problem above.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I posted some numbers on the last page about Stirrings vs. Looting/Opt/SV/Hierarch, but don't think those numbers support a Stirrings ban. The most-played Stirrings deck is KCI and KCI is a singular problem for a variety of reasons. Notably, it wildly overperforms in T8s relative to the share of players who enter events with it (this based on the limited Day 1/Day 2 samples we have seen in tournaments). By all available measures, its MWP is also well above other decks in the format. Tron, Humans, Spirits, UW Control, and others all hover in the 52% range. KCI is 59% in a similarly sized sample, which supports its strong GP performance this year despite minimal overall share. This reminds me of an old Stoddard quote about bans: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/latest-developments/using-real-world-data-2016-02-11
"The first, most obvious thing to look for is whether or not any deck has a positive matchup against every other major deck in the field. When your worst matchup is the mirror, chances are you are going to get banned. Even if, in the real world, the deck hasn't won a lot of tournaments, this is a clear sign that it is poised to take over at some point, and we should probably act sooner rather than later."
This line of reasoning, if R&D still follows it, definitely points to a KCI ban. If 2018 continued to prove this is the best deck in Modern, which it clearly is by almost all statistical measures I have seen and checked, then it is likely to see increased adoption. This compounds the diversity issue it might be presenting, and aggravates any other related issues such as battle of sideboards considerations, logistical problems (possible but unknown), and the idea that it is not "fun." All of those elements will likely combine to result in a KCI-specific ban, as no other Stirrings deck appears to be overperforming. That is why I think Trawler or KCI itself are the likeliest targets. Incidentally, those are also the targets I personally would go after if on R&D.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Spirits
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Yeah but that doesnt hurt Tron at all...
Oh and people are not paying attention (or dont care about fair decks, which is fine) if they are not aware of this. Terminus is more than any other card or deck in the format, going to prevent fair creature based decks from ever seeing real play again.
Spirits
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]