I love the idea of Arclight Phoenix (especially in UR Thing shells), but I missed the boat on it early, and I'm simply not paying $80+ for another cute deck that *might* not be totally terrible, but would likely be relegated back to the binder with all the other failed (and expensive) UR deck pieces.
Once Twin is not unbanned, and Wizards disappoints me again thats what I'm going to mess with. I do think the all in Red (Runaway) is too soft to removal/gy hate, and the UR version has by default worse interaction (counters are worse than discard) so I 'think' that BR will be better.
Once Twin is not unbanned, and Wizards disappoints me again thats what I'm going to mess with. I do think the all in Red (Runaway) is too soft to removal/gy hate, and the UR version has by default worse interaction (counters are worse than discard) so I 'think' that BR will be better.
yeah i agree, discard just pairs naturally with a card like phoenix. the mardu shell with lootings, manamorphose, lingering souls, discard, brutality, bolts, etc looks interesting. i know one of the weaknesses of the traditional mardu pyro deck was poor closing speed, having the arclight package fixes that.
i was tempted to pick up a set of arclights so i could mess around with grixis colors going all in on AV since its 'free' when you cast it, but then i remembered im horrible at brewing. so ill just wait until more knowledgeable folks figure it out. even with the hype phoenix decks wouldnt be showing up unless something good was going on. i cant remember a card that has elicited this much brewing in a long while; possibly deaths shadow, but that had other factors at work.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
You can view all of the results in their post for GP ATL on its own. Their additional data is particularly helpful for me, as I can add it to the master 2018 MWP sheet, which now includes data from five GP (including ATL), plus 610 matchups from pairings/coverage/T8s/T32s of five SCG Opens. This creates a massive dataset from the year. Based on that data, here are the MWPs of all Modern decks with >100 observed matches. MWP and matchup N is provided.
And here's the list trimmed down to only include decks with >300 matches, which represented roughly one standard deviation over the average number of matches observed for all decks. We can think of this as the more reliable "big N" list:
I'll probably write most of this up in a blog post when I clean the data more and get some matchup data polished. The only major caveats to this analysis are: a) a lot of GP data relies on self-reported survey responses, which will probably shift the data towards winners/organized players who remembered/wanted to report their wins, and; b) decks changed over the last 6-8 months so an updated UW Control list with MD RIP and a slightly different configuration would get grouped together with an older UW Control list with older June 2018 card choices. I'm totally fine with that limitation given the data we're working with.
SCG is a Team Constructed event this weekend in Vegas, I dont think a GP is Modern (Standard and Limited??) but I hope to see some more Phoenix decks doing their thing.
Count me in the happy camp that the top 20 decks have such a small difference in MWP. (OTOH, some could say it shows that modern is random. You almost could just as well flip a coin when any top 10 decks face off.)
Looking at just that top 10, the biggest stand out to me, is Counters Company. I have to believe if the top of the meta was more interactive, then that deck would fall off.
I dont think 'random' is the correct word, but variable, and diverse, certainly.
It's not a "mistake." It just means that in the N=116 matchups reported by Merfolk players and opponents, it had a 55.17% MWP. If that N is insufficient or the results are potentially biased to you, two possibilities I literally addressed in the post, then feel free to refer to the higher N list below. I can say with confidence that Gx Tron does not have the 4th higehst MWP. In an N=1000+ sample, it's just over 51%. That's sufficiently large for us to be confident it's the "true" Gx Tron MWP.
It's not a "mistake." It just means that in the N=116 matchups reported by Merfolk players and opponents, it had a 55.17% MWP. If that N is insufficient or the results are potentially biased to you, two possibilities I literally addressed in the post, then feel free to refer to the higher N list below. I can say with confidence that Gx Tron does not have the 4th higehst MWP. In an N=1000+ sample, it's just over 51%. That's sufficiently large for us to be confident it's the "true" Gx Tron MWP.
ok, i thinked really a mistake because i read on reddit, your link, merfolk is away. Seems i understand it wrong...thats good, i love my merfolk
It's not a "mistake." It just means that in the N=116 matchups reported by Merfolk players and opponents, it had a 55.17% MWP. If that N is insufficient or the results are potentially biased to you, two possibilities I literally addressed in the post, then feel free to refer to the higher N list below. I can say with confidence that Gx Tron does not have the 4th higehst MWP. In an N=1000+ sample, it's just over 51%. That's sufficiently large for us to be confident it's the "true" Gx Tron MWP.
ok, i thinked really a mistake because i read on reddit, your link, merfolk is away. Seems i understand it wrong...thats good, i love my merfolk
The Reddit post I linked to, as far as I can tell, only refers to GP ATL data. The data I'm posting is GP ATL plus four earlier GP plus five SCG Opens, all from 2018. Their N is smaller and from a more limited timeframe. Gx Tron isn't even 4th in their dataset either. It's solidly in the middle with an MWP of 50.5%.
Looking at just that top 10, the biggest stand out to me, is Counters Company. I have to believe if the top of the meta was more interactive, then that deck would fall off.
Did Twin or Pod have those problems?
Not saying Counters Company is as good as those decks were but the power of having two different game plans in one deck shouldn't be underestimated. Focusing too much on disrupting the combo can lead to dieing to just a few Gavony Township activations
I never played Pod, but Twin didnt because it was not exposed until ready to go off. GW counters is far more at risk vs a deck like UWR for example. My record when on UWR against GR Counters is very tilted as it all dies to bolt.
UWR is a special case since very few other decks can claim to have mass removal and be able to bolt so much stuff. Most other decks have to use their removal spells a bit more wisely and that's where the conflict comes from. It's still a 30 creatures deck at the end of the day so doing nothing can mean getting overrun and out valued but also spending those removal spells wrong can mean losing to the combos via lucky topdecks, Chord of Calling or Collected Company.
It's certainly not as good as Pod was but it has a similar strategy and I can imagine it gets free wins against people who are not that experienced in the match-up and sometimes they just simply have it.
I've yet to see a convincing build of Runaway Phoenix, I'm surprised it's that high in regionals. Is it actually good?
Recurring flying haste Creature + a lot of hype, no wonder it sees play.
Greetings,
Kathal
That and the novelty of having something different to play in a non-rotating format, which locally can get pretty stale with limited numbers of players, can end up pushing a decks popularity.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I've yet to see a convincing build of Runaway Phoenix, I'm surprised it's that high in regionals. Is it actually good?
Recurring flying haste Creature + a lot of hype, no wonder it sees play.
Greetings,
Kathal
With my very limited experience on the deck.. Risk Factor is their scariest card as it is often cast twice, because my life total is already under heavy pressure from other red cards. It feels like facing a Burn deck that use a recurring creature that is hard to block.
That and the novelty of having something different to play in a non-rotating format, which locally can get pretty stale with limited numbers of players, can end up pushing a decks popularity.
Also, it is overall quite cheap, so it gives another reason why so many people test it.
With my very limited experience on the deck.. Risk Factor is their scariest card as it is often cast twice, because my life total is already under heavy pressure from other red cards. It feels like facing a Burn deck that use a recurring creature that is hard to block.
Exactly.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
That and the novelty of having something different to play in a non-rotating format, which locally can get pretty stale with limited numbers of players, can end up pushing a decks popularity.
Also, it is overall quite cheap, so it gives another reason why so many people test it.
Yeah, espescially for the people who were able to get Arclight for 4$ and Risk Fact for 2$ or less each.
Still having regrets removing the playset of Risk Factor from my shopping cart when they were just 2 dollars each. :#
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
It's hype. I think the best build is BR honestly I'm just waiting for the 26th to go in on it.
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I lurk around the Mardu Pyromancer thread, and there has been some talk there of adding an arclight package to the deck.
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Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Close, but more all in on the Phoenix plan. I think something with Young Pyromancer, Arclight Phoenix, and the full 4 of Collective Brutality could be awesome.
Once Twin is not unbanned, and Wizards disappoints me again thats what I'm going to mess with. I do think the all in Red (Runaway) is too soft to removal/gy hate, and the UR version has by default worse interaction (counters are worse than discard) so I 'think' that BR will be better.
Spirits
yeah i agree, discard just pairs naturally with a card like phoenix. the mardu shell with lootings, manamorphose, lingering souls, discard, brutality, bolts, etc looks interesting. i know one of the weaknesses of the traditional mardu pyro deck was poor closing speed, having the arclight package fixes that.
i was tempted to pick up a set of arclights so i could mess around with grixis colors going all in on AV since its 'free' when you cast it, but then i remembered im horrible at brewing. so ill just wait until more knowledgeable folks figure it out. even with the hype phoenix decks wouldnt be showing up unless something good was going on. i cant remember a card that has elicited this much brewing in a long while; possibly deaths shadow, but that had other factors at work.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/9xkdzi/modern_the_modern_meta_after_gp_atlanta/
You can view all of the results in their post for GP ATL on its own. Their additional data is particularly helpful for me, as I can add it to the master 2018 MWP sheet, which now includes data from five GP (including ATL), plus 610 matchups from pairings/coverage/T8s/T32s of five SCG Opens. This creates a massive dataset from the year. Based on that data, here are the MWPs of all Modern decks with >100 observed matches. MWP and matchup N is provided.
1. KCI: 57.73% (n=582)
2. Hardened Scales: 55.29% (n=340)
3. Eldrazi Tron: 55.17% (n=116)
4. Merfolk: 55.17% (n=116)
5. Dredge: 54.15% (n=253)
6. Bant Spirits: 53.7% (n=324)
7. Counters Company: 53.7% (n=419)
8. Humans: 52.13% (n=1452)
9. Death and Taxes: 52.04% (n=196)
10. Bogles: 51.72% (n=290)
11. Abzan: 51.67% (n=120)
12. UW Control: 51.6% (n=845)
13. Gx Tron: 51.46% (n=1028)
14. Hollow One: 50.81% (n=494)
15. Storm: 50.12% (n=425)
16. Grixis Death's Shadow: 50.1% (n=485)
17. Infect: 49.55% (n=440)
18. Burn: 49.19% (n=1055)
19. Bridgevine: 48.39% (n=186)
20. Jeskai Control: 48.26% (n=835)
21. Titanshift: 47.02% (n=487)
22. Elves: 46.95% (n=279)
23. Amulet Titan: 46.51% (n=129)
24. Mardu Pyromancer: 46.02% (n=678)
25. Jund: 45.71% (n=676)
26. Blue Moon: 45.39% (n=152)
27. Affinity: 44.01% (n=609)
28. Ad Nauseam: 42.99% (n=107)
29. Ponza: 36.42% (n=151)
And here's the list trimmed down to only include decks with >300 matches, which represented roughly one standard deviation over the average number of matches observed for all decks. We can think of this as the more reliable "big N" list:
1. KCI: 57.73% (n=582)
2. Hardened Scales: 55.29% (n=340)
3. Bant Spirits: 53.7% (n=324)
4. Counters Company: 53.7% (n=419)
5. Humans: 52.13% (n=1452)
6. UW Control: 51.6% (n=845)
7. Gx Tron: 51.46% (n=1028)
8. Hollow One: 50.81% (n=494)
9. Storm: 50.12% (n=425)
10. Grixis Death's Shadow: 50.1% (n=485)
11. Infect: 49.55% (n=440)
12. Burn: 49.19% (n=1055)
13. Jeskai Control: 48.26% (n=835)
14. Titanshift: 47.02% (n=487)
15. Mardu Pyromancer: 46.02% (n=678)
16. Jund: 45.71% (n=676)
17. Affinity: 44.01% (n=609)
I'll probably write most of this up in a blog post when I clean the data more and get some matchup data polished. The only major caveats to this analysis are: a) a lot of GP data relies on self-reported survey responses, which will probably shift the data towards winners/organized players who remembered/wanted to report their wins, and; b) decks changed over the last 6-8 months so an updated UW Control list with MD RIP and a slightly different configuration would get grouped together with an older UW Control list with older June 2018 card choices. I'm totally fine with that limitation given the data we're working with.
Spirits
I dont think 'random' is the correct word, but variable, and diverse, certainly.
Spirits
It's not a "mistake." It just means that in the N=116 matchups reported by Merfolk players and opponents, it had a 55.17% MWP. If that N is insufficient or the results are potentially biased to you, two possibilities I literally addressed in the post, then feel free to refer to the higher N list below. I can say with confidence that Gx Tron does not have the 4th higehst MWP. In an N=1000+ sample, it's just over 51%. That's sufficiently large for us to be confident it's the "true" Gx Tron MWP.
The Reddit post I linked to, as far as I can tell, only refers to GP ATL data. The data I'm posting is GP ATL plus four earlier GP plus five SCG Opens, all from 2018. Their N is smaller and from a more limited timeframe. Gx Tron isn't even 4th in their dataset either. It's solidly in the middle with an MWP of 50.5%.
Did Twin or Pod have those problems?
Not saying Counters Company is as good as those decks were but the power of having two different game plans in one deck shouldn't be underestimated. Focusing too much on disrupting the combo can lead to dieing to just a few Gavony Township activations
Spirits
It's certainly not as good as Pod was but it has a similar strategy and I can imagine it gets free wins against people who are not that experienced in the match-up and sometimes they just simply have it.
Spirits
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
That and the novelty of having something different to play in a non-rotating format, which locally can get pretty stale with limited numbers of players, can end up pushing a decks popularity.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
With my very limited experience on the deck.. Risk Factor is their scariest card as it is often cast twice, because my life total is already under heavy pressure from other red cards. It feels like facing a Burn deck that use a recurring creature that is hard to block.
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Also, it is overall quite cheap, so it gives another reason why so many people test it.
Exactly.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Yeah, espescially for the people who were able to get Arclight for 4$ and Risk Fact for 2$ or less each.
Still having regrets removing the playset of Risk Factor from my shopping cart when they were just 2 dollars each. :#
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
Spirits