Cool data. Again though I caution reading into it too much because the sample sizes are too small. It says Tron is 44% against Boggles, but its only 8/14 matches. Play that a bunch more and Tron is 60%+. Tron is not 78% against Affinity over a large sample. We have 23 here which is just decent. As a rule of thumb I want at LEAST 30 matches played to start making any remotely definitive statements. The average in this data dump is about 20. The Tron vs UW result is an example of why more is better - 29 matches played and 31% from the Tron side. It's definitely become more even in recent times but no way it's unfavorable for Tron if you play 100 matches.
The ones with the largest samples vs Tron (Humans, Jeskai, Mardu) all have stats that are very much in line with my experience.
I can get with Tron being 60% vs. Bogles. I actually haven't played against Tron that much when I play Bogles. I guess that's a good thing since I don't want my overall win percentage to go down (most of which was pre-Ugin and pre-Ulamog), lol.
The matchup that I was super curious about, to the point of asking everyone I come into contact with in real life, was Humans vs. Tron. I personally felt that from the feedback I received, it was 50/50, but when I play tested it (only once vs. the same guy), I think I won 5 out of 12 games. But I felt that his draws were extremely good and my draws were inconsistent with a consistent deck, so I kind of threw the testing out of the window.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The matchup that I was super curious about, to the point of asking everyone I come into contact with in real life, was Humans vs. Tron. I personally felt that from the feedback I received, it was 50/50, but when I play tested it (only once vs. the same guy), I think I won 5 out of 12 games. But I felt that his draws were extremely good and my draws were inconsistent with a consistent deck, so I kind of threw the testing out of the window.
It's a real interesting one. I heard the whole range of opinions on it - from it's the worst matchup for Humans, it's even, it's unfavorable for Tron. It felt even to me for the first stretch, but now that I've played the matchup a ton (76 times now), I'm quite confident it's right in the 60-40 range for Tron, or a smidge better. Currently I'm at 64% but around a dozen of those matches were from last year before the deck picked up Image so it was easier and I won most of those. Configurations matter though - more Ballistas make it better for Tron and less make it worse. Big Thalias in the Humans flex slots are a huge problem, and the versions with Damping Sphere in the side are tougher as well.
Damn, that is a lot! I trust this testing and it's interesting to see what can be done by Humans to hedge against Tron. I haven't seen Big Thalia for a cool one. I played 2-3 in Human Company before the Vial Humans current list came out.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
The KCI and UW Control Numbers are sick. I lost to UW Control today with Breach, and it felt like he just had everything he needed, always. Seemed very strong.
The KCI and UW Control Numbers are sick. I lost to UW Control today with Breach, and it felt like he just had everything he needed, always. Seemed very strong.
This is what I was thinking. The chart shows 14 positive matchups in 17 matchups for UW Control. Why would people just not play Control?
It has UW Control at the best, KCI the next best (which is understandable considering who plays it), and Hollow One a close 3rd. These decks seems to have the best matchups across the board. I'm not sure if that is what's most important, but it surely makes them look damn good.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Yeah, I could be tempted to give it (UW Miracles) a spin, it was a close thing (had him at 2, then had him at 4!!) but its really hard for me to give up reach with Bolt.
I still dont understand Hollow Ones success. I'm over 60% win rate on that one with UWR.
Those numbers are insanely scary for both Mono G Tron and Humans. I'm unsure, but I feel most of these numbers are correct based off of my experience. Some of these numbers are just dramatically wrong. Look at Storm vs Tron. There is no way, absolutely no way Tron has a near 50/50 matchup. It's not as if they just cast relic of progenitus and Storm Scoops.
Those numbers are insanely scary for both Mono G Tron and Humans. I'm unsure, but I feel most of these numbers are correct based off of my experience. Some of these numbers are just dramatically wrong. Look at Storm vs Tron. There is no way, absolutely no way Tron has a near 50/50 matchup. It's not as if they just cast relic of progenitus and Storm Scoops.
I have a 57% win rate against Storm over 49 matches. Tron's an underdog G1, but favored post-board after bringing in 10+ cards.
Yeah, I could be tempted to give it (UW Miracles) a spin, it was a close thing (had him at 2, then had him at 4!!) but its really hard for me to give up reach with Bolt.
I still dont understand Hollow Ones success. I'm over 60% win rate on that one with UWR.
yeah i played miracles around a month ago when i started seeing lists in the 5-0 dumps that werent the piles playing spreading seas or nonsense like telling time. easily prized the 2 weekly events i played in. terminus is a busted card.
not sure id say its outright better than jeskai like some claim, but it certainly has clear upsides. definitely a solid home for jace, which is reason enough for me to sleeve it up from time to time (they were expensive damnit!).
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
when I was grinding storm on MTGO I found that it seemed to be even. Even dumb stuff like on the play turn 3 karn exile a land is nontrivial for storm to beat game 1 and it turns into a mess post board.
Thanks, great!
Jeskai vs Tron = 72%
Jeskai vs Mardu Pyro = 74 %
Now, @KTK, this is the second time those kind of data agree with my view on this matchup. The first time you told me that it's not just that I drew conclusions from one source. Could I have an answer here?
Might be misreading the data, but N appears to be 32 for that Jeskai vs. Tron matchup and Tron was 26 for 32 in the decidedly nonrandom dataset. So we have a tiny N and a nonrandom dataset based on self-reporting. So no, I don't buy it for a second from that data. It may be true with a larger and higher integrity dataset! It might not eithet. We don't know and I haven't seen that dataset yet.
EDIT: Mobile devices suck. N=52 with Tron at 37/52. This just means the matchup is merely bad with a wide enough confidence interval to fall within the expected range of bad matchups. As I said in a previous post, I am sure it is in the 30/35-70/65 range if we had a big enough, truly random dataset.
So I must say Stitcher's Supplier looks like one hell of a card, and has already earned some success in Modern.
Jund-Vine decks I think are probably one of the deck archetypes that can use Supplier do it's greatest point, and oh boy do these 5-0 League Lists look sweet.
God I love Magic sometimes.
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Modern Decks: UBG Lantern Control GBU BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
So I must say Stitcher's Supplier looks like one hell of a card, and has already earned some success in Modern.
Jund-Vine decks I think are probably one of the deck archetypes that can use Supplier do it's greatest point, and oh boy do these 5-0 League Lists look sweet.
God I love Magic sometimes.
That's the type of card that makes me want to dust off Abzan Rally / Aristocrats (or esper... would have to test that again). Once again, standard sets showing they are weak and have no impact on modern
So I must say Stitcher's Supplier looks like one hell of a card, and has already earned some success in Modern.
Jund-Vine decks I think are probably one of the deck archetypes that can use Supplier do it's greatest point, and oh boy do these 5-0 League Lists look sweet.
God I love Magic sometimes.
That's the type of card that makes me want to dust off Abzan Rally / Aristocrats (or esper... would have to test that again). Once again, standard sets showing they are weak and have no impact on modern
I think that when people think of "Standard sets effecting Modern" they envision things like Eldrazi Winter, where the entire metagame was warped into an eldritch monstrosity.
However realistically, it's new sets providing some Modern decks with new cards for existing archetypes, or giving certain strategies a new card they need to become a break out deck.
I mean hell, look at some of the most recent 5-0 Humans lists running a full play set of Militia Bugler. New sets effects Modern, though usually only subtly
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Modern Decks: UBG Lantern Control GBU BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
Thanks, great!
Jeskai vs Tron = 72%
Jeskai vs Mardu Pyro = 74 %
Now, @KTK, this is the second time those kind of data agree with my view on this matchup. The first time you told me that it's not just that I drew conclusions from one source. Could I have an answer here?
Might be misreading the data, but N appears to be 32 for that Jeskai vs. Tron matchup and Tron was 26 for 32 in the decidedly nonrandom dataset. So we have a tiny N and a nonrandom dataset based on self-reporting. So no, I don't buy it for a second from that data. It may be true with a larger and higher integrity dataset! It might not eithet. We don't know and I haven't seen that dataset yet.
EDIT: Mobile devices suck. N=52 with Tron at 37/52. This just means the matchup is merely bad with a wide enough confidence interval to fall within the expected range of bad matchups. As I said in a previous post, I am sure it is in the 30/35-70/65 range if we had a big enough, truly random dataset.
Again, I am not saying it's 80-20. But it being 70-30, which to me means an awful matchup, is what I expected!
So, it's not just a bad "55-45/60-40" matchup, as you said in the first place!
We have an agreement here!
I never said it was 45-55. I said all overall deck MWPs are in that 45-55 bracket.
70-30, if that kind of % holds would not surprise me. Its an unbearably bad experience, and running into it over and over is one of the main reasons I left UWR for now.
Maybe this has come up before, but I was brainstorming at work cool stuff I'd like to see in modern.
Would the Judgment Wish cycle just immediately get broken? Or would it fix the old "not enough sb slots" question without changing the rules of deck construction and sideboards?
Would the Judgment Wish cycle just immediately get broken? Or would it fix the old "not enough sb slots" question without changing the rules of deck construction and sideboards?
I don't think they'd either get broken or fix anything in regards to sideboard slots.
The ones with the largest samples vs Tron (Humans, Jeskai, Mardu) all have stats that are very much in line with my experience.
The matchup that I was super curious about, to the point of asking everyone I come into contact with in real life, was Humans vs. Tron. I personally felt that from the feedback I received, it was 50/50, but when I play tested it (only once vs. the same guy), I think I won 5 out of 12 games. But I felt that his draws were extremely good and my draws were inconsistent with a consistent deck, so I kind of threw the testing out of the window.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)So does barren glory, but I'm still waiting
Spirits
This is what I was thinking. The chart shows 14 positive matchups in 17 matchups for UW Control. Why would people just not play Control?
It has UW Control at the best, KCI the next best (which is understandable considering who plays it), and Hollow One a close 3rd. These decks seems to have the best matchups across the board. I'm not sure if that is what's most important, but it surely makes them look damn good.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I still dont understand Hollow Ones success. I'm over 60% win rate on that one with UWR.
Spirits
EDIT: Also their sample is only 11 matches.
yeah i played miracles around a month ago when i started seeing lists in the 5-0 dumps that werent the piles playing spreading seas or nonsense like telling time. easily prized the 2 weekly events i played in. terminus is a busted card.
not sure id say its outright better than jeskai like some claim, but it certainly has clear upsides. definitely a solid home for jace, which is reason enough for me to sleeve it up from time to time (they were expensive damnit!).
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)M
ight be misreading the data, but N appears to be 32 for that Jeskai vs. Tron matchup and Tron was 26 for 32 in the decidedly nonrandom dataset. So we have a tiny N and a nonrandom dataset based on self-reporting. So no, I don't buy it for a second from that data. It may be true with a larger and higher integrity dataset! It might not eithet. We don't know and I haven't seen that dataset yet.EDIT: Mobile devices suck. N=52 with Tron at 37/52. This just means the matchup is merely bad with a wide enough confidence interval to fall within the expected range of bad matchups. As I said in a previous post, I am sure it is in the 30/35-70/65 range if we had a big enough, truly random dataset.
Jund-Vine decks I think are probably one of the deck archetypes that can use Supplier do it's greatest point, and oh boy do these 5-0 League Lists look sweet.
God I love Magic sometimes.
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
That's the type of card that makes me want to dust off Abzan Rally / Aristocrats (or esper... would have to test that again). Once again, standard sets showing they are weak and have no impact on modern
I think that when people think of "Standard sets effecting Modern" they envision things like Eldrazi Winter, where the entire metagame was warped into an eldritch monstrosity.
However realistically, it's new sets providing some Modern decks with new cards for existing archetypes, or giving certain strategies a new card they need to become a break out deck.
I mean hell, look at some of the most recent 5-0 Humans lists running a full play set of Militia Bugler. New sets effects Modern, though usually only subtly
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
I never said it was 45-55. I said all overall deck MWPs are in that 45-55 bracket.
Spirits
Would the Judgment Wish cycle just immediately get broken? Or would it fix the old "not enough sb slots" question without changing the rules of deck construction and sideboards?
Spirits
Spirits
It's always super popular at team events. Unsure why.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate