I don't think that Grapeshot needs to be banned for Preordain to come back. I am not currently asking for Ponder. That card feels more "Legacy" to me, but perhaps we can talk about that at a much later date. If Control does run Preordain and other cantrips, that's a good thing. Maybe we will have an archetype that many people who complain about it here can learn to love?
I think Ponder needs to stay banned. However, I wouldn't be opposed to U: Look at the top 3, you may either rearrange them or put them on the bottom of your library. Draw a card.
Basically, I think the shuffle component would be a negative to the format, but I don't think the cantrip would be too good.
Honestly, I'm fairly convinced that wizards will not unban a card unless they are certain it will have minor to no impact on modern when it does get unbanned. I'd love to see SFM unbanned, but at the same time who is getting the most benefit from the card vs getting worse because of the card?
I've seen no reason to expect they know much of anything from the unbans.
Why would they want 'no impact', when they state...a desired impact.
EDIT: I mean do you think they intentionally want to look stupid?
the hangup is finding out who gains more by having stuff like tutors or better cantrips. for instance would GSZ help a creature toolbox deck filled with various 'answer' creatures, or would it better serve a combo deck. likewise would better blue cantrips help control more, or blue aggro/combo.
There was some testing done on modernexus.com by David Ernenwein regarding Preordain in Gifts Storm and UW Control (before Jace). It seemed that it helped the win percentage of UW Control more in most matchups more so than Gifts Storm. I feel if you are worried about Blue Aggro, or Tempo, that is the least of our concerns. Tempo is absolutely TRASH in Modern. I realize that it represents the best deck in Legacy, possibly a deck that needs something banned. But that should not be a reason for keeping it down in Modern. It would be pretty sweet to have a solid Tempo deck in Modern! Right now, the best we have are Faeries and Bant Spirits.
But I see your point - who is going to DO the testing to see what is helped more? And will their words or testing be taken seriously?
yeah i read that article a while back, and it makes sense. a deck like storm is overloaded with cantrips, therefore 4 being better out of the 10 or 11 they run is less impactful than upgrading the only 4 cantrips a control deck is running. though i suspect if preordain was legal control would likely run 6 or 7 as the standard.
on the surface a deck that is naturally redundant to support a linear gameplan gains less from selection. however its usually not that simple.
i will say that ironworks being able to run stirrings is just another slap in the face for blue players. pretty much any deck that can run mox opal and stirrings has a serious leg up on the format because both those cards are clear outliers in power level when they work.
As a primarily control/tempo player i'd love to see preordain unbanned, from memory the modernnexus article said for storm it wasn't that much different to sleight of hand whilst it actually helped the UW control deck in terms of selection.
I don't think that Grapeshot needs to be banned for Preordain to come back. I am not currently asking for Ponder. That card feels more "Legacy" to me, but perhaps we can talk about that at a much later date. If Control does run Preordain and other cantrips, that's a good thing. Maybe we will have an archetype that many people who complain about it here can learn to love?
I think Ponder needs to stay banned. However, I wouldn't be opposed to U: Look at the top 3, you may either rearrange them or put them on the bottom of your library. Draw a card.
Basically, I think the shuffle component would be a negative to the format, but I don't think the cantrip would be too good.
Why exactly is Ponder too good for Modern. "Feels like Legacy" just isn't a good argument. As stated before, tempo is nowhere right now. Death's Shadow fell off, and if people are still afraid of Storm taking over, then its just unfounded fear. If Storm does pop off too much, then maybe I'm wrong, but I just dont see that happening when Humans is the best deck.
At the very least I'd love Preordain unbanned.
Next B&R announcement I'd like to see Stoneforge Mystic, Preordain, and Splinter Twin all unbanned. I'd like Ponder to just play an experiment but I bet that wont ever happen
Don't think we'll get preordain and twin back at the same time and likely rightly so as they power up the same deck. But SFM and preordain sound great.
Even slowly being convinced that GSZ might be a good idea (despite the fact I firmly believe that green needs no help).
U right, I'd rather not want Twin actually now that you say that. There's been good arguments before, which is why I said it, but tbh I really don't want Splinter Twin back if we really dont need it
I remember that time, during the last days of Splinter Twin. Even Living End has a blue variant that has the Splinter Twin combo added to the deck.. I could be wrong but it seems to be called "Living Twin" deck. I guess wizards thought that Splinter Twin is already widespread enough to ban. And those were the days where the price of Spellskite is so high, because the 0/4 robot is good in stopping the twin combo.
Honestly, I'm fairly convinced that wizards will not unban a card unless they are certain it will have minor to no impact on modern when it does get unbanned. I'd love to see SFM unbanned, but at the same time who is getting the most benefit from the card vs getting worse because of the card?
I've seen no reason to expect they know much of anything from the unbans.
Why would they want 'no impact', when they state...a desired impact.
EDIT: I mean do you think they intentionally want to look stupid?
I'm being sarcastic. Still, it seriously feels more like hype and interest with trying previously strong cards impacts the meta more than the power of the card itself most of the time.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I don't think that Grapeshot needs to be banned for Preordain to come back. I am not currently asking for Ponder. That card feels more "Legacy" to me, but perhaps we can talk about that at a much later date. If Control does run Preordain and other cantrips, that's a good thing. Maybe we will have an archetype that many people who complain about it here can learn to love?
I think Ponder needs to stay banned. However, I wouldn't be opposed to U: Look at the top 3, you may either rearrange them or put them on the bottom of your library. Draw a card.
Basically, I think the shuffle component would be a negative to the format, but I don't think the cantrip would be too good.
Why exactly is Ponder too good for Modern. "Feels like Legacy" just isn't a good argument. As stated before, tempo is nowhere right now. Death's Shadow fell off, and if people are still afraid of Storm taking over, then its just unfounded fear. If Storm does pop off too much, then maybe I'm wrong, but I just dont see that happening when Humans is the best deck.
At the very least I'd love Preordain unbanned.
Next B&R announcement I'd like to see Stoneforge Mystic, Preordain, and Splinter Twin all unbanned. I'd like Ponder to just play an experiment but I bet that wont ever happen
Reread my suggestion, I didn't say that it was too good, I said introducing more shuffling would be bad. What I suggested would be very similar, on the same power level but without the shuffle component. I think Preordain is fine too.
I guess wizards thought that Splinter Twin is already widespread enough to ban. And those were the days where the price of Spellskite is so high, because the 0/4 robot is good in stopping the twin combo.
Spellskite was also great against Infect, Burn (among other strategies) in addition to Twin. It was also both cheap and colorless, meaning it could go in any deck. Skite doesn't see play today because Burn isn't great, Infect is irrelevant, and Twin doesn't exist.
Regardless, my ignore list is just going to get longer the more I need read banal statements of authority regarding Twin.
Every top deck had 3 or in most cases 4 of 6 coin flip match ups. Twin simply had no obvious weakness at the time, yet STILL was not ever close to 20% of the meta despite that apparent lack of weakness.
Again. Most top decks at the time had a majority (2/3) coin flip match up. The proof was right there.
Regardless, my ignore list is just going to get longer the more I need read banal statements of authority regarding Twin.
Don't put me on ignore pweeease.
I think honestly with Twin, Wizards just set a new precedent for cards getting banned. Firstly I think they wanted people to know that they ARE the boss. They determine what gets banned and what gets unbanned - not the general public. Secondly, I think they wanted changes to the Modern meta. They were tired of Modern being defined by Twin. They wanted it gone, so a new meta would unfold. With Twin in the meta, I personally feel that many games had much less variance than now. They actively want variance in Modern. They do not want anything close to a Turbo Xerox deck (I'm not saying that Twin was that in any stretch of the imagination). I'm just saying that is one of the reasons that Ponder and Preordain have remained banned for so long. I think that their beliefs about how to grow the Modern player base are very founded. Sure, many players will quit or play less, but for the most part, they actively GET newer players. Modern feels like the most played format to me, which is scary because Standard is a cash cow. (I guess Modern can somewhat be this too if Jace sells M25 or SfM sells MM19).
Cliffnotes: I just think that they wanted to show people that Modern is not an eternal format. Your deck can be obsolete any time Wizards wants it to. Yes, it brought about some fear, but it set a precedent for Modern. They can ban a deck simply for being the BEST deck at the time. That's it. I know it disheartens a lot of people, but I don't think that they are going to revisit Twin any time soon. Not just Twin... I don't think they are revisiting stuff like Birthing Pod either, even if that card may or may not be too good for the meta. That last part is irrelevant to them. They don't currently want those cards in the meta. But I understand that they said "Jace has a grave in Modern," so anything can change. Wizards constantly flips back and forth - being a business, they have to remain flexible and if it comes to the day that Splinter Twin being released into Modern will make Wizards money, you best believe that it's going to be back, regardless of anything else.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Not just Twin... I don't think they are revisiting stuff like Birthing Pod either, even if that card may or may not be too good for the meta. That last part is irrelevant to them. They don't currently want those cards in the meta. But I understand that they said "Jace has a grave in Modern," so anything can change. Wizards constantly flips back and forth - being a business, they have to remain flexible and if it comes to the day that Splinter Twin being released into Modern will make Wizards money, you best believe that it's going to be back, regardless of anything else.
Nah, why would I put you on ignore when your one of the few that at least makes a sensible statement like the above?
Was Twin the best deck? Maybe.
Was it one of several near 50/50 decks? Yep.
Did it die for the Pro Tour? I remain convinced this is so.
Edit: and you know what, to close out this sad topic.
Certain Pros, even a known Modern personality who is a control grinder, was positive 4 Jace, 4 Disrupting Shoal was going to be overbearing on the format.
Last I saw he was down to a single Jace and some UWR folks are back to 0.
Cliffnotes: I just think that they wanted to show people that Modern is not an eternal format. Your deck can be obsolete any time Wizards wants it to. Yes, it brought about some fear, but it set a precedent for Modern. They can ban a deck simply for being the BEST deck at the time. That's it. I know it disheartens a lot of people, but I don't think that they are going to revisit Twin any time soon. Not just Twin... I don't think they are revisiting stuff like Birthing Pod either, even if that card may or may not be too good for the meta. That last part is irrelevant to them. They don't currently want those cards in the meta. But I understand that they said "Jace has a grave in Modern," so anything can change. Wizards constantly flips back and forth - being a business, they have to remain flexible and if it comes to the day that Splinter Twin being released into Modern will make Wizards money, you best believe that it's going to be back, regardless of anything else.
I've been in Modern since the Overextended days. I played Pod from the beginning, I played Infect Shoal, I played 12 post, I played Twin, I played Eggs, and I played others. The Twin ban was the one that fundamentally changed the way I approach the format. It shifted me from playing decks that contain build around cards, to playing decks that are piles of good stuff that are largely removed from the presence of any individual card.
Since then, I've had a much easier time in playing the format. And it resulted in a collection that has very little risk attached to it.
Edit: I believe this is true, to the point that any time I give someone new to the format some advice, I always try to steer them away from decks full of a build around card.
Certain Pros, even a known Modern personality who is a control grinder, was positive 4 Jace, 4 Disrupting Shoal was going to be overbearing on the format.
Last I saw he was down to a single Jace and some UWR folks are back to 0.
Frustrated, I am.
I'm down to 1 in the main 1 in the side in Blue Moon (from 3 main) and 0 main 1 side for a Grixis brew (down from 2 main 1 side). Jace is really bad in most matchups, and in the matchups he's good in, he's just a situationally-better grindy card that replaces a P&K or Keranos. Womp womp flop of a card, just like I (unfortunately) thought it would be.
WoTC doesn't like stale formats since a stale format has a calming effect on the market. There has to be at least some kind of motion happening with decks in order to drive prices, get people trading out / buying new cards, and keeping the game alive at FNM and the GP / Protour level. Standard is the quickly turning short wheel of MtG while modern is the huge, slowly rotating cog with the most force behind it. My own opinion for the longest time has not been that twin died for the PT, but rather for the market and to push sales. The problem with Twin was that it was a police deck that kept other things in check and WoTC probably thought it would lead to a stagnant format. Kill the police deck, watch everyone go crazy, and then there is more demand for potentially different cards than what they had printed in the last masters set.
Also, I'm not debating the statistics or win percentages of twin vs other decks, because it's actually kind of irrelevant. People at the time didn't feel like twin was a ban worthy deck and it got banned anyway. Just look back at the reactions people had back then. Wizards banned it for their own reasons that they probably wont divulge fully. The statistics comparisons people have been doing are an attempt to find justification for it.
We also look for decks that hold a large enough percentage of the competitive field to reduce the diversity of the format...
...In the interest of competitive diversity, Splinter Twin is banned from Modern.
That is as much as we know about their decision and it hasn't changed.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Funny story from back in the day. I was in Top 8 at a local tournament, and was waiting to see who my opponent would be for 3rd place, since I lost the semi-final matchup to Infect. It was Tron versus Twin. Tron played went second game 1, and assembled Tron on Turn 3. He tapped out, slammed Karn, and then died because Twin flashed in Exarch. Just an anecdote.
That anecdote is more about how bad the Tron player's play was. The proper play would be to -3 Karn to take out a land. This would prevent them from comboing off next turn and also leave the Tron player in an advantaged position. Instead, they blew all that advantage.
Does anyone have a site, that has the GP results (top 16 would be great) for all Modern only GP's? I've not been able to find this data, other than perhaps walking through the Wizards site.
Re: Twin talk
As I've said before, if the Twin defenders actually made an evidence-driven argument for Twin's unbanning that addressed the reasons it was banned in the first place, I am sure more people would be open to considering the card. This also includes acknowledging opposing sides of the argument even if it is not to one's benefit. For instance, we already know that Twin had 50/50+ matchups against the best decks in Modern (https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/magic-math-the-new-modern-by-the-numbers/), so denying this feels disingenuous and/or uninformed.
You're moving the goalposts here. The claim was not that Twin had no bad matchups against the most popular decks. It was that Twin had little to no bad matchups at all.
And let's not forget the data mentioned earlier in that article regarding overall win rate. According to that, Twin's overall win rate was below that of Grixis Delver, Affinity, Junk, GR Tron, Amulet Bloom, Infect, Merfolk, Temur Moon, and Soul Sisters(!).
Does anyone have a site, that has the GP results (top 16 would be great) for all Modern only GP's? I've not been able to find this data, other than perhaps walking through the Wizards site.
Well, setting up MTG Top 8 to filter out everything other than Modern Grand Prix and Pro Tours produces this but it includes Team Grand Prix as well as the Pro Tours.
Changed over to my other PC, essentially though, since the Twin Ban, even ignoring the hilarious Eldrazi Winter, this is essentially it.
Modern is an Aggro/Linear format, and the only time this changes, is blips of interactivity from Midrange/Control, when a ban/unban happens, before we devolve back to Aggro.
Also, if the prior 'Ban for the Pro Tour' mechanism still existed, Mox Opal would have been banned.
affinity does seem to be immune to bans, even considering how powerful the deck is. it wouldnt be surprising to hear that opal was under serious consideration for a ban at various points in the formats history. guess they figured there is enough artifact hate running around.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
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I think Ponder needs to stay banned. However, I wouldn't be opposed to U: Look at the top 3, you may either rearrange them or put them on the bottom of your library. Draw a card.
Basically, I think the shuffle component would be a negative to the format, but I don't think the cantrip would be too good.
I've seen no reason to expect they know much of anything from the unbans.
Why would they want 'no impact', when they state...a desired impact.
EDIT: I mean do you think they intentionally want to look stupid?
Spirits
As a primarily control/tempo player i'd love to see preordain unbanned, from memory the modernnexus article said for storm it wasn't that much different to sleight of hand whilst it actually helped the UW control deck in terms of selection.
Legacy - LED Dredge, ANT & WDnT
Why exactly is Ponder too good for Modern. "Feels like Legacy" just isn't a good argument. As stated before, tempo is nowhere right now. Death's Shadow fell off, and if people are still afraid of Storm taking over, then its just unfounded fear. If Storm does pop off too much, then maybe I'm wrong, but I just dont see that happening when Humans is the best deck.
At the very least I'd love Preordain unbanned.
Next B&R announcement I'd like to see Stoneforge Mystic, Preordain, and Splinter Twin all unbanned. I'd like Ponder to just play an experiment but I bet that wont ever happen
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Even slowly being convinced that GSZ might be a good idea (despite the fact I firmly believe that green needs no help).
Legacy - LED Dredge, ANT & WDnT
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Nexus MTG News // Nexus - Magic Art Gallery // MTG Dual Land Color Ratios Analyzer // MTG Card Drawing Odds Calculator
Want to play a UW control deck in modern, but don't have jace or snaps?
Please come visit us at the Emeria Titan control thread
I'm being sarcastic. Still, it seriously feels more like hype and interest with trying previously strong cards impacts the meta more than the power of the card itself most of the time.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Reread my suggestion, I didn't say that it was too good, I said introducing more shuffling would be bad. What I suggested would be very similar, on the same power level but without the shuffle component. I think Preordain is fine too.
Spellskite was also great against Infect, Burn (among other strategies) in addition to Twin. It was also both cheap and colorless, meaning it could go in any deck. Skite doesn't see play today because Burn isn't great, Infect is irrelevant, and Twin doesn't exist.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Regardless, my ignore list is just going to get longer the more I need read banal statements of authority regarding Twin.
Every top deck had 3 or in most cases 4 of 6 coin flip match ups. Twin simply had no obvious weakness at the time, yet STILL was not ever close to 20% of the meta despite that apparent lack of weakness.
Again. Most top decks at the time had a majority (2/3) coin flip match up. The proof was right there.
Its irrelevant, I'll just spam Forsythe.
Spirits
Don't put me on ignore pweeease.
I think honestly with Twin, Wizards just set a new precedent for cards getting banned. Firstly I think they wanted people to know that they ARE the boss. They determine what gets banned and what gets unbanned - not the general public. Secondly, I think they wanted changes to the Modern meta. They were tired of Modern being defined by Twin. They wanted it gone, so a new meta would unfold. With Twin in the meta, I personally feel that many games had much less variance than now. They actively want variance in Modern. They do not want anything close to a Turbo Xerox deck (I'm not saying that Twin was that in any stretch of the imagination). I'm just saying that is one of the reasons that Ponder and Preordain have remained banned for so long. I think that their beliefs about how to grow the Modern player base are very founded. Sure, many players will quit or play less, but for the most part, they actively GET newer players. Modern feels like the most played format to me, which is scary because Standard is a cash cow. (I guess Modern can somewhat be this too if Jace sells M25 or SfM sells MM19).
Cliffnotes: I just think that they wanted to show people that Modern is not an eternal format. Your deck can be obsolete any time Wizards wants it to. Yes, it brought about some fear, but it set a precedent for Modern. They can ban a deck simply for being the BEST deck at the time. That's it. I know it disheartens a lot of people, but I don't think that they are going to revisit Twin any time soon. Not just Twin... I don't think they are revisiting stuff like Birthing Pod either, even if that card may or may not be too good for the meta. That last part is irrelevant to them. They don't currently want those cards in the meta. But I understand that they said "Jace has a grave in Modern," so anything can change. Wizards constantly flips back and forth - being a business, they have to remain flexible and if it comes to the day that Splinter Twin being released into Modern will make Wizards money, you best believe that it's going to be back, regardless of anything else.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Nah, why would I put you on ignore when your one of the few that at least makes a sensible statement like the above?
Was Twin the best deck? Maybe.
Was it one of several near 50/50 decks? Yep.
Did it die for the Pro Tour? I remain convinced this is so.
Edit: and you know what, to close out this sad topic.
Certain Pros, even a known Modern personality who is a control grinder, was positive 4 Jace, 4 Disrupting Shoal was going to be overbearing on the format.
Last I saw he was down to a single Jace and some UWR folks are back to 0.
Frustrated, I am.
Spirits
I've been in Modern since the Overextended days. I played Pod from the beginning, I played Infect Shoal, I played 12 post, I played Twin, I played Eggs, and I played others. The Twin ban was the one that fundamentally changed the way I approach the format. It shifted me from playing decks that contain build around cards, to playing decks that are piles of good stuff that are largely removed from the presence of any individual card.
Since then, I've had a much easier time in playing the format. And it resulted in a collection that has very little risk attached to it.
Edit: I believe this is true, to the point that any time I give someone new to the format some advice, I always try to steer them away from decks full of a build around card.
I'm down to 1 in the main 1 in the side in Blue Moon (from 3 main) and 0 main 1 side for a Grixis brew (down from 2 main 1 side). Jace is really bad in most matchups, and in the matchups he's good in, he's just a situationally-better grindy card that replaces a P&K or Keranos. Womp womp flop of a card, just like I (unfortunately) thought it would be.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Also, I'm not debating the statistics or win percentages of twin vs other decks, because it's actually kind of irrelevant. People at the time didn't feel like twin was a ban worthy deck and it got banned anyway. Just look back at the reactions people had back then. Wizards banned it for their own reasons that they probably wont divulge fully. The statistics comparisons people have been doing are an attempt to find justification for it.
That is as much as we know about their decision and it hasn't changed.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Spirits
And let's not forget the data mentioned earlier in that article regarding overall win rate. According to that, Twin's overall win rate was below that of Grixis Delver, Affinity, Junk, GR Tron, Amulet Bloom, Infect, Merfolk, Temur Moon, and Soul Sisters(!).
Spirits
Spirits
Modern is an Aggro/Linear format, and the only time this changes, is blips of interactivity from Midrange/Control, when a ban/unban happens, before we devolve back to Aggro.
Also, if the prior 'Ban for the Pro Tour' mechanism still existed, Mox Opal would have been banned.
Also, I'm selling out to play Affinity.
Convince me I'm wrong.
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)