It gives blue another good creature something its sorely lacking in right now that is for sure. All you see Blue Creature wise on a regular basis are Baral and Snapcaster. TNN is a pure combat creature something Blue really doesn't have.
I argue counters have to be free to work because otherwise your opponent can lay down far too many threats before a UWx Control deck actually cast a legit counter. Maybe you have a chance if you go first, but if you go second you wont have a chance to counter anything. UW Control needs some good 1-2 drop creatures (that can at least block favorable) and cheap boardwipes.
Burn - 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog
Delver 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, One Favoured
Affinity 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Twin 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Favoured
Junk 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Jund 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog (Dog to Delver wut)
Tron 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 1 Favoured
Interesting...
As usual we have lies, damn lies, and Stat's we can make say whatever we want.
Yep, that's it. I have that MTGO dataset and there is no statistical difference between all Twin's matchups right around 50/50. They are all effectively 50/50 or better with no dogs and two good matchups. All the other decks had at least 1-2 legitimately unfavored matchup.
I think TNN would tilt things. I'd play it though as a control win con for sure.
Well I purposefully opted to not look at cards banned in modern like SFM or Twin. I also wanted to look at why these cards would work.
Take TNN for instance. Yeah it would drive some people nuts, but there's several design elements to note. It has a double-blue casting requirement, so it won't just get splashed like DS or goyf. It forces a specific type of interaction that is more often found in fair decks in sac effects and board wipes, so if it ever really took off in any unfair deck the meta reaction would be "go faster" which really can't happen at this point, or "run better interaction" which is far more likely. Plus it'd make merfolk awesome and I love that premise. Go fish!
Toxic Deluge is just a good card, easily splashable, and baleful strix is a virtually guaranteed 2 for 1 in the early game.
It allows Blue to act on the combat damage axis something it really cannot do in modern right now. What is the best blue creature at swinging in for combat damage currently?
It allows Blue to act on the combat damage axis something it really cannot do in modern right now. What is the best blue creature at swinging in for combat damage currently?
I'd argue Vendilion Clique is really underrated, and probably at the top of that list. It has flash, evasion, and a disruptive effect attached. Geist of Saint Traft and Spell Queller were winning events in jeskai flash with clique just a few months ago (and I think the deck is still very good, but people are trying to break Jace so hard that they are forgetting that deck exists). I also think Delver is pretty good.
Burn - 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog
Delver 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, One Favoured
Affinity 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Twin 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Favoured
Junk 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Jund 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog (Dog to Delver wut)
Tron 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 1 Favoured
Interesting...
As usual we have lies, damn lies, and Stat's we can make say whatever we want.
Yep, that's it. I have that MTGO dataset and there is no statistical difference between all Twin's matchups right around 50/50. They are all effectively 50/50 or better with no dogs and two good matchups. All the other decks had at least 1-2 legitimately unfavored matchup.
Well, if the hill we get to crucify Twin on is that it beat up on Affinity (72% win rate IS huge) and was ever so slightly favoured against Tron (56%) while every other deck had just as many toss up match ups in that 'middle of the bell curve' range...then yep, Twin was certainly just as oppressive as the other good decks at that snap shot.
It allows Blue to act on the combat damage axis something it really cannot do in modern right now. What is the best blue creature at swinging in for combat damage currently?
The Spirits deck is a blue based tempo deck that wins via combat damage. The deck is very good against most Combo decks. Same can be said about Merfolk.
I dont think we need True Name at all. Its a poorly designed card when it comes to non-multiplayer formats and was not intended or designed to be in competitive constructed in the first place (same with Leovold, Emissary of Trest for that matter but alas we are Modern, not Legacy). Blue is not a big bad creature based color, so not having a good creature shouldnt be a complaint. If you want to win with creatures, i think you are in the wrong color. A deck like Merfolk and Spirits would slot in TNN just because its OP
It allows Blue to act on the combat damage axis something it really cannot do in modern right now. What is the best blue creature at swinging in for combat damage currently?
Snapcaster Mage, Vendillion Clique, Spellqueller, Delver of Secrets. Blue in general doesn't run cards that are meant to beat down they run creatures that incidentally beat down after giving some effect.
If you want to win with creatures, i think you are in the wrong color.
Personally, I agree, but loathe creatures. I dont want to do combat math. EVER. Give me a tight, quick to execute combo like Knight + Reliquary (god that combo sucks on MTGO...) and I'm happy.
Mashing creatures into eachother for 'value trades' is the exact opposite of how I want to play.
I am not saying Blue need to the best at creature combat but it needs something if its going to only get subpar cantrips and counterspells. It simply too slow right now at control to prevent Aggro Decks form running it down. So better creatures, cheaper boardwipes, etc.
I am not saying Blue need to the best at creature combat but it needs something if its going to only get subpar cantrips and counterspells. It simply too slow right now at control to prevent Aggro Decks form running it down. So better creatures, cheaper boardwipes, etc.
I guess what I dont understand is...why?
Why do we need to reinvent the wheel when a solution exists?
An additional R, and having the target bolt able, is literally too taxing, to the point a perennial contender, becoming Tier 2.5 Jank.
Burn - 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog
Delver 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, One Favoured
Affinity 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Twin 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Favoured
Junk 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Jund 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog (Dog to Delver wut)
Tron 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 1 Favoured
Interesting...
As usual we have lies, damn lies, and Stat's we can make say whatever we want.
Yep, that's it. I have that MTGO dataset and there is no statistical difference between all Twin's matchups right around 50/50. They are all effectively 50/50 or better with no dogs and two good matchups. All the other decks had at least 1-2 legitimately unfavored matchup.
Well, if the hill we get to crucify Twin on is that it beat up on Affinity (72% win rate IS huge) and was ever so slightly favoured against Tron (56%) while every other deck had just as many toss up match ups in that 'middle of the bell curve' range...then yep, Twin was certainly just as oppressive as the other good decks at that snap shot.
Thanks for SUCKING Affinity, you killed Twin.
Yes, one of the issues is that it's a 50/50+ deck and Wizards doesn't want these these decks to stay around long without bans. That, plus it's initial diversity reasons stated in the ban update. All of these reasons must be addressed at once if Twin is to be unbanned. Unfortunately, Twin defenders don't generally build cases to address all those reasons. They mostly (not always, but mostly) use rhetorical, subjective arguments to argue in its favor.
If one can test a Twin vs. DeckX matchup that was 45-55 or worse for Twin, that would be a great first step towards the unbanning argument. But again, most Twin defenders aren't interested in that kind of substantive legwork and case building.
I am not saying Blue need to the best at creature combat but it needs something if its going to only get subpar cantrips and counterspells. It simply too slow right now at control to prevent Aggro Decks form running it down. So better creatures, cheaper boardwipes, etc.
I guess what I dont understand is...why?
Why do we need to reinvent the wheel when a solution exists?
An additional R, and having the target bolt able, is literally too taxing, to the point a perennial contender, becoming Tier 2.5 Jank.
Thats the margins on which Modern operates.
I don't think we need reinvent the wheel. I simply think what is most likely to boost Blue, White, and Control in general are new cards. WOTC ain't giving Blue stuff like Force of Will or True Name Nemesis.
I am not saying Blue need to the best at creature combat but it needs something if its going to only get subpar cantrips and counterspells. It simply too slow right now at control to prevent Aggro Decks form running it down. So better creatures, cheaper boardwipes, etc.
I guess what I dont understand is...why?
Why do we need to reinvent the wheel when a solution exists?
An additional R, and having the target bolt able, is literally too taxing, to the point a perennial contender, becoming Tier 2.5 Jank.
Thats the margins on which Modern operates.
I don't think twin is ever coming back, right or wrong. I also brought up TNN and other cards not just to talk about those cards, but also to explore the mechanics and designs that make those cards good. Just as you say, modern operates on razor thin margins, but we might just stumble upon something that DOES exist in the current card pool as we figure out "what makes this good?"
EDIT: also I'm ticked that we had a cycling block last year, yet no reprint of astral slide or lightning rift. Those would have been cool to have.
Burn - 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog
Delver 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, One Favoured
Affinity 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Twin 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Favoured
Junk 3 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 2 Favoured
Jund 4 of 6 45-55, 2 Dog (Dog to Delver wut)
Tron 4 of 6 45-55, 1 Dog, 1 Favoured
Interesting...
As usual we have lies, damn lies, and Stat's we can make say whatever we want.
Yep, that's it. I have that MTGO dataset and there is no statistical difference between all Twin's matchups right around 50/50. They are all effectively 50/50 or better with no dogs and two good matchups. All the other decks had at least 1-2 legitimately unfavored matchup.
Well, if the hill we get to crucify Twin on is that it beat up on Affinity (72% win rate IS huge) and was ever so slightly favoured against Tron (56%) while every other deck had just as many toss up match ups in that 'middle of the bell curve' range...then yep, Twin was certainly just as oppressive as the other good decks at that snap shot.
Thanks for SUCKING Affinity, you killed Twin.
Yes, one of the issues is that it's a 50/50+ deck and Wizards doesn't want these these decks to stay around long without bans. That, plus it's initial diversity reasons stated in the ban update. All of these reasons must be addressed at once if Twin is to be unbanned. Unfortunately, Twin defenders don't generally build cases to address all those reasons. They mostly (not always, but mostly) use rhetorical, subjective arguments to argue in its favor.
If one can test a Twin vs. DeckX matchup that was 45-55 or worse for Twin, that would be a great first step towards the unbanning argument. But again, most Twin defenders aren't interested in that kind of substantive legwork and case building.
I think the major issue here, is that there was no deck to which Twin was a dog. 3 or 4 of 6 was consistent across the spectrum of 'good decks'. The issue simply (at the high level end in the picture) is that Twin crushed affinity, while folding to nobody.
I've dont testing. Twin struggles against GDS, but maybe its ME as the Twin player who struggles against GDS? I mean any kind of testing is going to be seen as suspect, because its not 500 matches, against a gauntlet of grinders or pro's.
Its this catch 22. I agree, data would be great, how do we get it? There's no mechanism to provide for it, because THE tool, would be MTGO, which we have no access to anymore, and the card is, natch, banned.
So in the end, we can run numbers (I actually requested some data from MTGGoldfish, they never got back to me if they even have it) I looked up a lot of old articles, and frankly my opinion on the numbers is "Most good decks were 2/3 coin flip decks against the field with one or 2 good/bad match ups". Thats my take away from that picture, that Twin's only failure, was beating the living ***** out of Affinity.
So I tried, I'm a data guy in my day job, I work with databases constantly, but we dont have the data. Wizards hides it, and we cannot create new data to test our hypothesis, in any meaningful (500 Matches) way.
yeah itd be cool if vanilla control got some new tools, but lets keep some perspective. the gap between the best performing decks at the moment and the rest of the field, which includes control, isnt that large.
will playing more reactive always amount to a self imposed handicap? probably. its simply the cost of 'diversity'
i think better card selection would be the most beneficial. we are in a situation where you cant rely on redundancy in deckbuilding for reactive strategies. more universally applicable answer cards would likely be too strong, therefore selection to find the subset of tools you need seems the best approach.
the hangup is finding out who gains more by having stuff like tutors or better cantrips. for instance would GSZ help a creature toolbox deck filled with various 'answer' creatures, or would it better serve a combo deck. likewise would better blue cantrips help control more, or blue aggro/combo.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Also you guys might not like swinging in with creatures but I think its pretty clear that is how WOTC wants the game played in Standard and Modern.
They like aggro with creatures, it gets the views
the hangup is finding out who gains more by having stuff like tutors or better cantrips. for instance would GSZ help a creature toolbox deck filled with various 'answer' creatures, or would it better serve a combo deck. likewise would better blue cantrips help control more, or blue aggro/combo.
There was some testing done on modernexus.com by David Ernenwein regarding Preordain in Gifts Storm and UW Control (before Jace). It seemed that it helped the win percentage of UW Control more in most matchups more so than Gifts Storm. I feel if you are worried about Blue Aggro, or Tempo, that is the least of our concerns. Tempo is absolutely TRASH in Modern. I realize that it represents the best deck in Legacy, possibly a deck that needs something banned. But that should not be a reason for keeping it down in Modern. It would be pretty sweet to have a solid Tempo deck in Modern! Right now, the best we have are Faeries and Bant Spirits.
But I see your point - who is going to DO the testing to see what is helped more? And will their words or testing be taken seriously?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Also you guys might not like swinging in with creatures but I think its pretty clear that is how WOTC wants the game played in Standard and Modern.
They like aggro with creatures, it gets the views
Since Standard is nothing but 'Swing with Creatures' for several rotations, and Modern is NOT just about that, and has more views...thats a pretty suspect claim.
As to who would have their word on testing trusted? Only Pro's. Nobody cares if idSurge the pleb tests Twin and says its fine.
Also you guys might not like swinging in with creatures but I think its pretty clear that is how WOTC wants the game played in Standard and Modern.
They like aggro with creatures, it gets the views
Since Standard is nothing but 'Swing with Creatures' for several rotations, and Modern is NOT just about that, and has more views...thats a pretty suspect claim.
As to who would have their word on testing trusted? Only Pro's. Nobody cares if idSurge the pleb tests Twin and says its fine.
I don't know we see plenty of Humans, Hollow Ones and Bogles these days...its a good time for creatures swinging in modern.
Yeah well they got a playtest team. But yeah Pros and the top youtubers have some influence I would assume.
Also you guys might not like swinging in with creatures but I think its pretty clear that is how WOTC wants the game played in Standard and Modern.
They like aggro with creatures, it gets the views
Since Standard is nothing but 'Swing with Creatures' for several rotations, and Modern is NOT just about that, and has more views...thats a pretty suspect claim.
As to who would have their word on testing trusted? Only Pro's. Nobody cares if idSurge the pleb tests Twin and says its fine.
I don't know we see plenty of Humans, Hollow Ones and Bogles these days...its a good time for creatures swinging in modern.
Yeah well they got a playtest team. But yeah Pros and the top youtubers have some influence I would assume.
If the next large event is Humans, Hollow One, and Bogles again, you better believe people will be crying about the state of the format.
the hangup is finding out who gains more by having stuff like tutors or better cantrips. for instance would GSZ help a creature toolbox deck filled with various 'answer' creatures, or would it better serve a combo deck. likewise would better blue cantrips help control more, or blue aggro/combo.
There was some testing done on modernexus.com by David Ernenwein regarding Preordain in Gifts Storm and UW Control (before Jace). It seemed that it helped the win percentage of UW Control more in most matchups more so than Gifts Storm. I feel if you are worried about Blue Aggro, or Tempo, that is the least of our concerns. Tempo is absolutely TRASH in Modern. I realize that it represents the best deck in Legacy, possibly a deck that needs something banned. But that should not be a reason for keeping it down in Modern. It would be pretty sweet to have a solid Tempo deck in Modern! Right now, the best we have are Faeries and Bant Spirits.
But I see your point - who is going to DO the testing to see what is helped more? And will their words or testing be taken seriously?
yeah i read that article a while back, and it makes sense. a deck like storm is overloaded with cantrips, therefore 4 being better out of the 10 or 11 they run is less impactful than upgrading the only 4 cantrips a control deck is running. though i suspect if preordain was legal control would likely run 6 or 7 as the standard.
on the surface a deck that is naturally redundant to support a linear gameplan gains less from selection. however its usually not that simple.
i will say that ironworks being able to run stirrings is just another slap in the face for blue players. pretty much any deck that can run mox opal and stirrings has a serious leg up on the format because both those cards are clear outliers in power level when they work.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
i will say that ironworks being able to run stirrings is just another slap in the face for blue players. pretty much any deck that can run mox opal and stirrings has a serious leg up on the format because both those cards are clear outliers in power level when they work.
Both of the decks in the finals utilized the raw power selection of Ancient Stirrings to find consistency in their decks. I'm surprised nobody here is talking about that. Now, I don't want people to talk about bans. I want people to use THIS as an impetus towards giving Blue some better card selection. I have never been a huge fan of Serum Visions. The new Amulet Titan deck has even done away with the card (I remember running Ancient Stirrings AND Serum Visions for a while). And I HAAAATE Opt. I just don't like the card. Sorry, yes it was a start and showed that Wizards cares, if just a little bit. But that card is terrible, sorry.
I don't think that Grapeshot needs to be banned for Preordain to come back. I am not currently asking for Ponder. That card feels more "Legacy" to me, but perhaps we can talk about that at a much later date. If Control does run Preordain and other cantrips, that's a good thing. Maybe we will have an archetype that many people who complain about it here can learn to love?
I'm also surprised that nobody is complaining about Tempo. Unless you count GDS as tempo and even then, it is a terrible archetype in Modern and mostly has been. (I guess the "card that nobody should say" Twin is Tempo, but I'm talking about Tempo without an infinite Combo) Part of the reason that Tempo has been bad is because Aggro STOMPS it and Aggro has always had super strong decks in the format. But it is more than that. Wizards has been unable to give Tempo tools because they are too scared of helping Combo and Control.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Honestly, I'm fairly convinced that wizards will not unban a card unless they are certain it will have minor to no impact on modern when it does get unbanned. I'd love to see SFM unbanned, but at the same time who is getting the most benefit from the card vs getting worse because of the card?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
I argue counters have to be free to work because otherwise your opponent can lay down far too many threats before a UWx Control deck actually cast a legit counter. Maybe you have a chance if you go first, but if you go second you wont have a chance to counter anything. UW Control needs some good 1-2 drop creatures (that can at least block favorable) and cheap boardwipes.
Yep, that's it. I have that MTGO dataset and there is no statistical difference between all Twin's matchups right around 50/50. They are all effectively 50/50 or better with no dogs and two good matchups. All the other decks had at least 1-2 legitimately unfavored matchup.
Well I purposefully opted to not look at cards banned in modern like SFM or Twin. I also wanted to look at why these cards would work.
Take TNN for instance. Yeah it would drive some people nuts, but there's several design elements to note. It has a double-blue casting requirement, so it won't just get splashed like DS or goyf. It forces a specific type of interaction that is more often found in fair decks in sac effects and board wipes, so if it ever really took off in any unfair deck the meta reaction would be "go faster" which really can't happen at this point, or "run better interaction" which is far more likely. Plus it'd make merfolk awesome and I love that premise. Go fish!
Toxic Deluge is just a good card, easily splashable, and baleful strix is a virtually guaranteed 2 for 1 in the early game.
I'd argue Vendilion Clique is really underrated, and probably at the top of that list. It has flash, evasion, and a disruptive effect attached. Geist of Saint Traft and Spell Queller were winning events in jeskai flash with clique just a few months ago (and I think the deck is still very good, but people are trying to break Jace so hard that they are forgetting that deck exists). I also think Delver is pretty good.
Well, if the hill we get to crucify Twin on is that it beat up on Affinity (72% win rate IS huge) and was ever so slightly favoured against Tron (56%) while every other deck had just as many toss up match ups in that 'middle of the bell curve' range...then yep, Twin was certainly just as oppressive as the other good decks at that snap shot.
Thanks for SUCKING Affinity, you killed Twin.
Spirits
The Spirits deck is a blue based tempo deck that wins via combat damage. The deck is very good against most Combo decks. Same can be said about Merfolk.
I dont think we need True Name at all. Its a poorly designed card when it comes to non-multiplayer formats and was not intended or designed to be in competitive constructed in the first place (same with Leovold, Emissary of Trest for that matter but alas we are Modern, not Legacy). Blue is not a big bad creature based color, so not having a good creature shouldnt be a complaint. If you want to win with creatures, i think you are in the wrong color. A deck like Merfolk and Spirits would slot in TNN just because its OP
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Snapcaster Mage, Vendillion Clique, Spellqueller, Delver of Secrets. Blue in general doesn't run cards that are meant to beat down they run creatures that incidentally beat down after giving some effect.
Personally, I agree, but loathe creatures. I dont want to do combat math. EVER. Give me a tight, quick to execute combo like Knight + Reliquary (god that combo sucks on MTGO...) and I'm happy.
Mashing creatures into eachother for 'value trades' is the exact opposite of how I want to play.
Spirits
I guess what I dont understand is...why?
Why do we need to reinvent the wheel when a solution exists?
An additional R, and having the target bolt able, is literally too taxing, to the point a perennial contender, becoming Tier 2.5 Jank.
Thats the margins on which Modern operates.
Spirits
Yes, one of the issues is that it's a 50/50+ deck and Wizards doesn't want these these decks to stay around long without bans. That, plus it's initial diversity reasons stated in the ban update. All of these reasons must be addressed at once if Twin is to be unbanned. Unfortunately, Twin defenders don't generally build cases to address all those reasons. They mostly (not always, but mostly) use rhetorical, subjective arguments to argue in its favor.
If one can test a Twin vs. DeckX matchup that was 45-55 or worse for Twin, that would be a great first step towards the unbanning argument. But again, most Twin defenders aren't interested in that kind of substantive legwork and case building.
I don't think we need reinvent the wheel. I simply think what is most likely to boost Blue, White, and Control in general are new cards. WOTC ain't giving Blue stuff like Force of Will or True Name Nemesis.
I don't think twin is ever coming back, right or wrong. I also brought up TNN and other cards not just to talk about those cards, but also to explore the mechanics and designs that make those cards good. Just as you say, modern operates on razor thin margins, but we might just stumble upon something that DOES exist in the current card pool as we figure out "what makes this good?"
EDIT: also I'm ticked that we had a cycling block last year, yet no reprint of astral slide or lightning rift. Those would have been cool to have.
I think the major issue here, is that there was no deck to which Twin was a dog. 3 or 4 of 6 was consistent across the spectrum of 'good decks'. The issue simply (at the high level end in the picture) is that Twin crushed affinity, while folding to nobody.
I've dont testing. Twin struggles against GDS, but maybe its ME as the Twin player who struggles against GDS? I mean any kind of testing is going to be seen as suspect, because its not 500 matches, against a gauntlet of grinders or pro's.
Its this catch 22. I agree, data would be great, how do we get it? There's no mechanism to provide for it, because THE tool, would be MTGO, which we have no access to anymore, and the card is, natch, banned.
So in the end, we can run numbers (I actually requested some data from MTGGoldfish, they never got back to me if they even have it) I looked up a lot of old articles, and frankly my opinion on the numbers is "Most good decks were 2/3 coin flip decks against the field with one or 2 good/bad match ups". Thats my take away from that picture, that Twin's only failure, was beating the living ***** out of Affinity.
So I tried, I'm a data guy in my day job, I work with databases constantly, but we dont have the data. Wizards hides it, and we cannot create new data to test our hypothesis, in any meaningful (500 Matches) way.
Spirits
will playing more reactive always amount to a self imposed handicap? probably. its simply the cost of 'diversity'
i think better card selection would be the most beneficial. we are in a situation where you cant rely on redundancy in deckbuilding for reactive strategies. more universally applicable answer cards would likely be too strong, therefore selection to find the subset of tools you need seems the best approach.
the hangup is finding out who gains more by having stuff like tutors or better cantrips. for instance would GSZ help a creature toolbox deck filled with various 'answer' creatures, or would it better serve a combo deck. likewise would better blue cantrips help control more, or blue aggro/combo.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)They like aggro with creatures, it gets the views
There was some testing done on modernexus.com by David Ernenwein regarding Preordain in Gifts Storm and UW Control (before Jace). It seemed that it helped the win percentage of UW Control more in most matchups more so than Gifts Storm. I feel if you are worried about Blue Aggro, or Tempo, that is the least of our concerns. Tempo is absolutely TRASH in Modern. I realize that it represents the best deck in Legacy, possibly a deck that needs something banned. But that should not be a reason for keeping it down in Modern. It would be pretty sweet to have a solid Tempo deck in Modern! Right now, the best we have are Faeries and Bant Spirits.
But I see your point - who is going to DO the testing to see what is helped more? And will their words or testing be taken seriously?
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Since Standard is nothing but 'Swing with Creatures' for several rotations, and Modern is NOT just about that, and has more views...thats a pretty suspect claim.
As to who would have their word on testing trusted? Only Pro's. Nobody cares if idSurge the pleb tests Twin and says its fine.
Spirits
I don't know we see plenty of Humans, Hollow Ones and Bogles these days...its a good time for creatures swinging in modern.
Yeah well they got a playtest team. But yeah Pros and the top youtubers have some influence I would assume.
If the next large event is Humans, Hollow One, and Bogles again, you better believe people will be crying about the state of the format.
Spirits
yeah i read that article a while back, and it makes sense. a deck like storm is overloaded with cantrips, therefore 4 being better out of the 10 or 11 they run is less impactful than upgrading the only 4 cantrips a control deck is running. though i suspect if preordain was legal control would likely run 6 or 7 as the standard.
on the surface a deck that is naturally redundant to support a linear gameplan gains less from selection. however its usually not that simple.
i will say that ironworks being able to run stirrings is just another slap in the face for blue players. pretty much any deck that can run mox opal and stirrings has a serious leg up on the format because both those cards are clear outliers in power level when they work.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Both of the decks in the finals utilized the raw power selection of Ancient Stirrings to find consistency in their decks. I'm surprised nobody here is talking about that. Now, I don't want people to talk about bans. I want people to use THIS as an impetus towards giving Blue some better card selection. I have never been a huge fan of Serum Visions. The new Amulet Titan deck has even done away with the card (I remember running Ancient Stirrings AND Serum Visions for a while). And I HAAAATE Opt. I just don't like the card. Sorry, yes it was a start and showed that Wizards cares, if just a little bit. But that card is terrible, sorry.
I don't think that Grapeshot needs to be banned for Preordain to come back. I am not currently asking for Ponder. That card feels more "Legacy" to me, but perhaps we can talk about that at a much later date. If Control does run Preordain and other cantrips, that's a good thing. Maybe we will have an archetype that many people who complain about it here can learn to love?
I'm also surprised that nobody is complaining about Tempo. Unless you count GDS as tempo and even then, it is a terrible archetype in Modern and mostly has been. (I guess
the "card that nobody should say"Twin is Tempo, but I'm talking about Tempo without an infinite Combo) Part of the reason that Tempo has been bad is because Aggro STOMPS it and Aggro has always had super strong decks in the format. But it is more than that. Wizards has been unable to give Tempo tools because they are too scared of helping Combo and Control.Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!