yeah jace winning with fatesealing is a last resort sorta thing. continuous brainstorming is what buries you.
i also agree that jace in midrange shells is absolutely horrifying.
i think there are some merits to the complaints that any 'fair' blue deck feels forced to have jace somewhere in their 75. realizing your deck has gone from competitive to underpowered over a couple of days stings a little.
however that is basically the nature of powerful cards in the format for all colors. i mentioned before that i think a large contributor to the discontent people are feeling is attributed to HOW jace was introduced. there was no process of discovery over weeks and months. it was just shoved into our faces.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
yeah jace winning with fatesealing is a last resort sorta thing. continuous brainstorming is what buries you.
i also agree that jace in midrange shells is absolutely horrifying.
i think there are some merits to the complaints that any 'fair' blue deck feels forced to have jace somewhere in their 75. realizing your deck has gone from competitive to underpowered over a couple of days stings a little.
however that is basically the nature of powerful cards in the format for all colors. i mentioned before that i think a large contributor to the discontent people are feeling is attributed to HOW jace was introduced. there was no process of discovery over weeks and months. it was just shoved into our faces.
How else is Wizards to introduce an unban? Or new cards, for that matter? It's always going to be sudden with no acclimation period; at least it was introduced in a stable metagame. As for JTMS going in lots of decks, as long as it's just a piece of diverse and varied blue-based decks, who cares how many blue decks he's a part of? I'd love if Sultai, Temur, Grixis, Jeskai, UW, Miracles, Blue Moon, were all viable. That's a net diversity gain for Modern, which is exactly what Wizards and most players want.
How else is Wizards to introduce an unban? Or new cards, for that matter? It's always going to be sudden with no acclimation period; at least it was introduced in a stable metagame. As for JTMS going in lots of decks, as long as it's just a piece of diverse and varied blue-based decks, who cares how many blue decks he's a part of? I'd love if Sultai, Temur, Grixis, Jeskai, UW, Miracles, Blue Moon, were all viable. That's a net diversity gain for Modern, which is exactly what Wizards and most players want.
yeah i think some of the backlash is unavoidable. it was just my hypothesis on how people might be negatively biased toward the card, when in reality its the situation that they are unhappy with (ie. messing up a 'good thing')
also i agree that is better to try things out in times of stability. i felt that wotc was pretty upfront about that in their announcement, and the reasoning made sense. if the format is in a perilous position that is when you ban cards.
as for new cards entering the format. well first they are filtered through standard, and then modern decks slowly adopt the tech to see if its viable in existing archetypes. if it has enough promise then entirely new decks are built.
jace is sorta a known quantity. compare that to other powerful cards that have come into the format over the last 5 years, how quickly they caught on and the general reaction to them.
collected company is a powerful format staple that had a gradual and uniform transition into the format. sure some people might have recognized its power right away, but the decks that use it showed up over a period of months.
then there are cards like treasure cruise and dig through time. both those cards are super busted, arguably moreso than jace. these cards stuck around for like 3-4 months. starting with small inclusions in blue decks into full on 'you are an idiot if you dont play UR delver'.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
The hyperbole in this article is off the charts even by DeCandio's usual standards. He even admits in the comments that he doesn't care about Modern! I just don't understand why SCG is allowing these kinds of strong claims to be published by an author who doesn't even really want to be writing about the format. I suspect there are editor-based assignments, but DeCandio's Modern articles just detract from his and SCG's credibility. I'm all for a good critique of the JTMS unban, but the evidence bar for that article is way higher than the bar DeCandio is currently eking by at.
Well the new decklist posting policy is great. It also probably means I will get all my 5-0s posted
But yeah it tells us nothing about the meta BUT we get to see all the spicy lists that got a 5-0 which is very cool.
I actually think there is a way to use these data dumps to create some metagame picture. It definitely isnt' as descriptive as the full dataset, but there are some interesting takeaways here:
1. Look for absent decks. Over time, if a deck is consistently missing from the data dump, there's a good chance that deck is not very successful. That's just how the statistics would work out in a large enough sample of weeks. For example, Grishoalbrand isn't here at all despite a recent GP T8. That's interesting and, if this kept up I would doubt the deck is as good as the GP suggested.
2. Look for unique card appearances. If decks are using a card a lot, that's a good indicator (not measurement; indicator) of its overall prevalence across archetypes. For instance, JTMS shows up in 8 unique decklists of 53 posted decklists. Goyf is in 8 as well, Shadow is in 6, Snapcaster is in 16, BBE is in 6, etc. Over time, this gives us a really decent estimate of card prevalence across the format.
3. Look for color appearances. If certain color combinations are regularly appearing, that makes me believe many people are experimenting in those colors. If a certain combination isn't as prevalent, it's either not popular or very solidified.
Not metagame standings by any means, but still cool ways to use the data.
Few things.
1. Thanks for posting the link to those deck lists.
2. I really like the new way they are releasing winning deck lists. Of course this list will always look diverse now because that is all they will show us but man this really shows off all the wild stuff.
3. Format is not dead yet, let's give JTMS a chance. Every major archetype seemed to be represented with only few exceptions. Play whatever you want, besides the known top teir decks there was one enigma drake deck, one guy just put JTMS in a taking turns deck, and my favorite: j.a. eliso's JTMS/ BBE/ AV/ Bloodmoon/ As foretold pile of amazing cards.
I had to click the link and read the article. I just had to click the link and read the article. There is hyperbole that sounds plausible, and then there is hyperbole that makes it sound plausible that some crazy person stitched together a squirrel based hand glider after he got tired of them running off with his favorite candy bars.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Its not even hyperbole, its some weird lament for a format he mentions disliking multiple times throughout, while he martyr's himself to play in the "last" event for a 'good format i hate' with what he's been told is the best deck for leveraging what must be his immense levels of skill.
Few things.
3. Format is not dead yet, let's give JTMS a chance. Every major archetype seemed to be represented with only few exceptions. Play whatever you want, besides the known top teir decks there was one enigma drake deck, one guy just put JTMS in a taking turns deck, and my favorite: j.a. eliso's JTMS/ BBE/ AV/ Bloodmoon/ As foretold pile of amazing cards.
There is just no good reason to even be in dialogue with the ridiculous and indefensible "JTMS = Modern is dead" claimants. Anyone who is actually arguing this right now without posting some extensive gamut of testing data is looking for clicks and/or just trying to generate controversy. They will typically do this under the screen of "well, it's just my opinion so I don't need evidence," which we all know doesn't even work in the high school op-ed section. There are some decent arguments against JTMS and some decent ways to present them. Unfortunately, most of the doomers and gloomers do not use those arguments and instead just state it as if it is fact.
Ktk: is there an API or anything to parse the data off the Wizards site?
Sadly, no. You'd have to do it manually, or with some kind of datascraping code with the HTML or by pasting the webpage into Excel. You can also date filter the data on other sites like Goldfish to see a breakdown.
Its not even hyperbole, its some weird lament for a format he mentions disliking multiple times throughout, while he martyr's himself to play in the "last" event for a 'good format i hate' with what he's been told is the best deck for leveraging what must be his immense levels of skill.
Its frankly an embarrassment.
At least he kept his shtick of saying things alive. Few things tilt me more than seeing the phrase "There, I said it" overused and boy does he hit that spot.
Oh no, I was just kidding about the stompy, I was referring to the devotion deck.
The article was trash though, I actually cringe when he writes about modern. I don't know how someone can be so good at standard and than be so extremely bad at modern.
Have you guys read the comments in that article from Deccandio? It's so unprofessional, I really wish complaints could be logged against him. He shouldn't be getting paid for writing any of that.
I don't read his articles on standard so I can't comment on that content, but his modern content is the worst content on that website.
Also lots of the why Jace won't be a problem in Modern arguments remind me of the Jace won't be a problem in standard Arguments.
But wouldn't those arguments regarding him not being a Standard be correct? Such arguments would obviously have to take place prior to him officially entering the format (or at least shortly thereafter), and Jace wasn't a problem for a while. Sure, he was good, but he didn't become a true monster until after rotation when a lot of cards that were effective against him rotated out, which obviously would not occur in Modern.
Actually Jace was seeing affinity levels of top 8's even before Jund rotated out and at that time people where making the same arguments they where making now. Even after jund rotated they printed many hate cards that targeted planes walkers but his share of the meta just grew. Also worth pointing out that Jace was considered too slow for Legacy for a quite a while as well.
Actually if we're bringing up old stuff, Jace wasn't the only problematic feature of blue at the time. It was reaching affinity because the cards U/W had access to were just the most efficient cards in standard. U/W had access to Preordain, Mana Leak, Path to Exile, and fetch lands. (Preordain also is a banned card in modern, I know it's not for being too powerful but alas it is banned!) It wasn't just Jace in blue that swallowed the petri dish. It all got worse after Oblivion Ring rotated out with BBE. When that happened Jace broke. Then they printed more problematic cards in Scars block. The whole deck was a snowballing super block monster to be perfectly honest. And they didn't introduce Planeswalker specific removal until a good 6 months after Jace and Stoneforge Mystic we're banned. This was just the point where they decided "destroy target Planeswalker" was something that needed to happen and be an ever present part of the game. Sure Jace was a format warping card, but in no way was he a lone offender.
How much better do you think Tron will become in the new meta?
Tron traditionally does very well against both Jund and control decks, the exact homes for Bloodbraid Elf and Jace.
Could these unbans actually push the archetype over the top?
Disclaimer: this isn't a jab at you but it is a statement against the outrageous anti-Tron vitriol online. Maybe you are just asking a question, but I read it as in dialogue with all the other anti-Tron hyperbole.
I'm a little exhausted by the apocalyptic anti-Tron crowd. It's been particularly bad in the last year; everything is a sign of the pending Tron doomsday. Tron winning GP? Tron too strong. Too many interactive decks in Modern? Tron well-positioned for takeover. New unbans? Tron about to get insane due to being good against unbanned cards. PT around the corner? Tron the best deck get ready for bans. Lantern wins PT? Ban Stirrings so we can also hit Tron which is broken. It's just a crusade at this point. Everything becomes a sign of the coming Tron end times and it doesn't really advance our discussion or understanding of the format. I'd rather talk about Twin of all things than more unsupported anti-Tron mania.
If for whatever reason Tron starts to do well against these new decks, we'll see Hollow One, Affinity, Burn, Storm, Grishoalbrand, etc. roll right back to beat big mana. This is what we saw all year. Modern is incredibly self-correcting at this point. That's why we saw lots of big mana at GP OKC, the Modern world had a collective aneurysm, and then big mana did not make waves at either the PT or GP Van. The format is self-regulating. There is no reason to believe unbans that don't even target the deck in question will cause imbalance. We're even seeing more anti-Tron technology emerge in interactive decks, like Field of Ruin. We need to tone down the sensationalistic Modern claims and stick with more measured analysis. This measured analysis predicted every "no changes" update over the last 12+ months, predicted metagame corrections, and predicted at least the BBE unban. This is the way we should be proceeding.
Lots of different lists pulling a 5-0.
Spirits
That should not be surprising given the new posting method.
They only post decks that are significantly different from one another.
So if twenty decks go 5-0 with the same list, only one of them will post.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
(If you are on the I like Diversity train that is)
Spirits
i also agree that jace in midrange shells is absolutely horrifying.
i think there are some merits to the complaints that any 'fair' blue deck feels forced to have jace somewhere in their 75. realizing your deck has gone from competitive to underpowered over a couple of days stings a little.
however that is basically the nature of powerful cards in the format for all colors. i mentioned before that i think a large contributor to the discontent people are feeling is attributed to HOW jace was introduced. there was no process of discovery over weeks and months. it was just shoved into our faces.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)How else is Wizards to introduce an unban? Or new cards, for that matter? It's always going to be sudden with no acclimation period; at least it was introduced in a stable metagame. As for JTMS going in lots of decks, as long as it's just a piece of diverse and varied blue-based decks, who cares how many blue decks he's a part of? I'd love if Sultai, Temur, Grixis, Jeskai, UW, Miracles, Blue Moon, were all viable. That's a net diversity gain for Modern, which is exactly what Wizards and most players want.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/competitive-modern-constructed-league-2018-02-16
yeah i think some of the backlash is unavoidable. it was just my hypothesis on how people might be negatively biased toward the card, when in reality its the situation that they are unhappy with (ie. messing up a 'good thing')
also i agree that is better to try things out in times of stability. i felt that wotc was pretty upfront about that in their announcement, and the reasoning made sense. if the format is in a perilous position that is when you ban cards.
as for new cards entering the format. well first they are filtered through standard, and then modern decks slowly adopt the tech to see if its viable in existing archetypes. if it has enough promise then entirely new decks are built.
jace is sorta a known quantity. compare that to other powerful cards that have come into the format over the last 5 years, how quickly they caught on and the general reaction to them.
collected company is a powerful format staple that had a gradual and uniform transition into the format. sure some people might have recognized its power right away, but the decks that use it showed up over a period of months.
then there are cards like treasure cruise and dig through time. both those cards are super busted, arguably moreso than jace. these cards stuck around for like 3-4 months. starting with small inclusions in blue decks into full on 'you are an idiot if you dont play UR delver'.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)http://www.starcitygames.com/article/36642_Moderns-Last-Hurrah.html
The hyperbole in this article is off the charts even by DeCandio's usual standards. He even admits in the comments that he doesn't care about Modern! I just don't understand why SCG is allowing these kinds of strong claims to be published by an author who doesn't even really want to be writing about the format. I suspect there are editor-based assignments, but DeCandio's Modern articles just detract from his and SCG's credibility. I'm all for a good critique of the JTMS unban, but the evidence bar for that article is way higher than the bar DeCandio is currently eking by at.
I actually think there is a way to use these data dumps to create some metagame picture. It definitely isnt' as descriptive as the full dataset, but there are some interesting takeaways here:
1. Look for absent decks. Over time, if a deck is consistently missing from the data dump, there's a good chance that deck is not very successful. That's just how the statistics would work out in a large enough sample of weeks. For example, Grishoalbrand isn't here at all despite a recent GP T8. That's interesting and, if this kept up I would doubt the deck is as good as the GP suggested.
2. Look for unique card appearances. If decks are using a card a lot, that's a good indicator (not measurement; indicator) of its overall prevalence across archetypes. For instance, JTMS shows up in 8 unique decklists of 53 posted decklists. Goyf is in 8 as well, Shadow is in 6, Snapcaster is in 16, BBE is in 6, etc. Over time, this gives us a really decent estimate of card prevalence across the format.
3. Look for color appearances. If certain color combinations are regularly appearing, that makes me believe many people are experimenting in those colors. If a certain combination isn't as prevalent, it's either not popular or very solidified.
Not metagame standings by any means, but still cool ways to use the data.
1. Thanks for posting the link to those deck lists.
2. I really like the new way they are releasing winning deck lists. Of course this list will always look diverse now because that is all they will show us but man this really shows off all the wild stuff.
3. Format is not dead yet, let's give JTMS a chance. Every major archetype seemed to be represented with only few exceptions. Play whatever you want, besides the known top teir decks there was one enigma drake deck, one guy just put JTMS in a taking turns deck, and my favorite: j.a. eliso's JTMS/ BBE/ AV/ Bloodmoon/ As foretold pile of amazing cards.
Spirits
3 color blood moon decks, disrupting shoal showing up, a BBE eldrazi deck
brewers must be having a field day right now
i must admit i am surprised there isnt a single zoo deck, of any variety.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Menguicci used to ***** about having to play and write about modern for CFB, and eventually they kinda just had him write primarily about Legacy.
The only difference is Menguicchi doesn't show up to a GP with a god damn Green Stompy deck
Spirits
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Its frankly an embarrassment.
Spirits
There is just no good reason to even be in dialogue with the ridiculous and indefensible "JTMS = Modern is dead" claimants. Anyone who is actually arguing this right now without posting some extensive gamut of testing data is looking for clicks and/or just trying to generate controversy. They will typically do this under the screen of "well, it's just my opinion so I don't need evidence," which we all know doesn't even work in the high school op-ed section. There are some decent arguments against JTMS and some decent ways to present them. Unfortunately, most of the doomers and gloomers do not use those arguments and instead just state it as if it is fact.
Sadly, no. You'd have to do it manually, or with some kind of datascraping code with the HTML or by pasting the webpage into Excel. You can also date filter the data on other sites like Goldfish to see a breakdown.
Did he really? I knew he brought Mono G Devotion to an event, but didn't know about Stompy. That would be next level kind of bad metagaming.
At least he kept his shtick of saying things alive. Few things tilt me more than seeing the phrase "There, I said it" overused and boy does he hit that spot.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
The article was trash though, I actually cringe when he writes about modern. I don't know how someone can be so good at standard and than be so extremely bad at modern.
I don't read his articles on standard so I can't comment on that content, but his modern content is the worst content on that website.
Tron traditionally does very well against both Jund and control decks, the exact homes for Bloodbraid Elf and Jace.
Could these unbans actually push the archetype over the top?
Actually if we're bringing up old stuff, Jace wasn't the only problematic feature of blue at the time. It was reaching affinity because the cards U/W had access to were just the most efficient cards in standard. U/W had access to Preordain, Mana Leak, Path to Exile, and fetch lands. (Preordain also is a banned card in modern, I know it's not for being too powerful but alas it is banned!) It wasn't just Jace in blue that swallowed the petri dish. It all got worse after Oblivion Ring rotated out with BBE. When that happened Jace broke. Then they printed more problematic cards in Scars block. The whole deck was a snowballing super block monster to be perfectly honest. And they didn't introduce Planeswalker specific removal until a good 6 months after Jace and Stoneforge Mystic we're banned. This was just the point where they decided "destroy target Planeswalker" was something that needed to happen and be an ever present part of the game. Sure Jace was a format warping card, but in no way was he a lone offender.
i dont see this happening. one of the customary reactions to 3-4 color good stuff decks showing up is land disruption/hate
field of ruin is showing up more as people realize its basically just a better tec edge, tons of blood moon decks, and more fulminator mages
so tron will be taking some splash damage
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Disclaimer: this isn't a jab at you but it is a statement against the outrageous anti-Tron vitriol online. Maybe you are just asking a question, but I read it as in dialogue with all the other anti-Tron hyperbole.
I'm a little exhausted by the apocalyptic anti-Tron crowd. It's been particularly bad in the last year; everything is a sign of the pending Tron doomsday. Tron winning GP? Tron too strong. Too many interactive decks in Modern? Tron well-positioned for takeover. New unbans? Tron about to get insane due to being good against unbanned cards. PT around the corner? Tron the best deck get ready for bans. Lantern wins PT? Ban Stirrings so we can also hit Tron which is broken. It's just a crusade at this point. Everything becomes a sign of the coming Tron end times and it doesn't really advance our discussion or understanding of the format. I'd rather talk about Twin of all things than more unsupported anti-Tron mania.
If for whatever reason Tron starts to do well against these new decks, we'll see Hollow One, Affinity, Burn, Storm, Grishoalbrand, etc. roll right back to beat big mana. This is what we saw all year. Modern is incredibly self-correcting at this point. That's why we saw lots of big mana at GP OKC, the Modern world had a collective aneurysm, and then big mana did not make waves at either the PT or GP Van. The format is self-regulating. There is no reason to believe unbans that don't even target the deck in question will cause imbalance. We're even seeing more anti-Tron technology emerge in interactive decks, like Field of Ruin. We need to tone down the sensationalistic Modern claims and stick with more measured analysis. This measured analysis predicted every "no changes" update over the last 12+ months, predicted metagame corrections, and predicted at least the BBE unban. This is the way we should be proceeding.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)