Re: Grishoalbrand
I don't know where this newfound fear comes from. I think it's partially from Hoogland's posts on Twitter and Reddit, but it's hard to really take him too seriously. I just don't understand why anyone would play no-result Grishoalbrand when you can just play Storm. You lose a turn of speed and in exchange you play a deck that is so much more resilient, still capable of T3 kills, less synergy-reliant, and doesn't just defeat itself. Also, if you think a tournament is GY-hate light, why bring this when you can bring Dredge, an actual, proven performer in no-GY-hate metagames?
For me at least, it's because I've seen what the deck can do in "small bursts." During the Path to Exile FNM Promo month, when I started playing Grishoalbrand, I was 24-1, not counting IDs. For someone who was just learning the deck, it is scary to see its raw power. A couple of months later, I had a month where my W/L was 50%. So, I've seen the other side. Still, all it really takes is one tournament. Remember, in Modern, it can be just one tournament and boom, your beloved deck is gone. I would hate to see it happen because I love the deck so much.
These are the words of a friend at my LGS, who has been something close to 25-2, not counting IDs since restarting, "Wizards didn't want me to play fair Magic with Golgari Grave-Troll, so I'm back to turn 2ing people." If that's something that doesn't scare you about a deck being banned, then I don't know what will.
I just don't really put a lot of stock in anecdotal, personal experience and records with any given deck. First, people can outright lie about their win percentages, so I'm skeptical out of the gate. There's a lot of financial and reputation incentive to do so online. That said, I don't think you're doing that; it's just a general suspicion. Second, people can selectively remember records or only start tracking them after a results drought. This also screws up the true MWP. I'll also just assume you aren't doing that, but it's possible you are. Third, people collect their win samples from dubious pools. They're testing on Cockatrice, in Friendly Leagues or random solo queues, in the same inbred FNM environment, with the same play group of 3-4 people, etc. There are definitely ways to minimize this bias, but few people actually take steps to do so. This taints the whole sample.
Fourth and most importantly, I had a 70% MWP with Cheeri0s all last spring; the only unfavorable matchup was GDS and it was buoyed by everything else. I tracked the games honestly and diligently and had a giant sample of 500+ games. Cheeri0s today? Garbage. No one plays it now, no one played it in the spring either. Clearly, some element of my testing was not translatable to the broader Modern field despite painstaking steps to avoid that fate.
All of these factors make me extremely suspicious of these kinds of reports. This thread is also full of them and Modern is full of them generally. Very, very few actually pan out. The only legitimate breakout deck that no one saw coming despite its longtime existence was Amulet Bloom, and that one came out of nowhere. Lantern Control is another one. Basically every other major GP and PT breakout was either with brand new stuff (e.g. Eldrazi) or just old faithfuls tuned to a new level and played by good pilots. For the most part, the untiered decks don't just emerge as format dangers or contenders.
Re: Grishoalbrand
I don't know where this newfound fear comes from. I think it's partially from Hoogland's posts on Twitter and Reddit, but it's hard to really take him too seriously. I just don't understand why anyone would play no-result Grishoalbrand when you can just play Storm. You lose a turn of speed and in exchange you play a deck that is so much more resilient, still capable of T3 kills, less synergy-reliant, and doesn't just defeat itself. Also, if you think a tournament is GY-hate light, why bring this when you can bring Dredge, an actual, proven performer in no-GY-hate metagames?
For me at least, it's because I've seen what the deck can do in "small bursts." During the Path to Exile FNM Promo month, when I started playing Grishoalbrand, I was 24-1, not counting IDs. For someone who was just learning the deck, it is scary to see its raw power. A couple of months later, I had a month where my W/L was 50%. So, I've seen the other side. Still, all it really takes is one tournament. Remember, in Modern, it can be just one tournament and boom, your beloved deck is gone. I would hate to see it happen because I love the deck so much.
These are the words of a friend at my LGS, who has been something close to 25-2, not counting IDs since restarting, "Wizards didn't want me to play fair Magic with Golgari Grave-Troll, so I'm back to turn 2ing people." If that's something that doesn't scare you about a deck being banned, then I don't know what will.
I just don't really put a lot of stock in anecdotal, personal experience and records with any given deck. First, people can outright lie about their win percentages, so I'm skeptical out of the gate. There's a lot of financial and reputation incentive to do so online. That said, I don't think you're doing that; it's just a general suspicion. Second, people can selectively remember records or only start tracking them after a results drought. This also screws up the true MWP. I'll also just assume you aren't doing that, but it's possible you are. Third, people collect their win samples from dubious pools. They're testing on Cockatrice, in Friendly Leagues or random solo queues, in the same inbred FNM environment, with the same play group of 3-4 people, etc. There are definitely ways to minimize this bias, but few people actually take steps to do so. This taints the whole sample.
Fourth and most importantly, I had a 70% MWP with Cheeri0s all last spring; the only unfavorable matchup was GDS and it was buoyed by everything else. I tracked the games honestly and diligently and had a giant sample of 500+ games. Cheeri0s today? Garbage. No one plays it now, no one played it in the spring either. Clearly, some element of my testing was not translatable to the broader Modern field despite painstaking steps to avoid that fate.
All of these factors make me extremely suspicious of these kinds of reports. This thread is also full of them and Modern is full of them generally. Very, very few actually pan out. The only legitimate breakout deck that no one saw coming despite its longtime existence was Amulet Bloom, and that one came out of nowhere. Lantern Control is another one. Basically every other major GP and PT breakout was either with brand new stuff (e.g. Eldrazi) or just old faithfuls tuned to a new level and played by good pilots. For the most part, the untiered decks don't just emerge as format dangers or contenders.
I agree completely that you can't really necessarily believe what someone writes here. But I personally can because I've seen it. My LGS is not the most competitive one in the world, but it certainly is one of the stronger ones in my opinion. I personally compare my W/L record from one deck to another. That's what helps me find out what deck is potentially busted, like Eye of Ugin Eldrazi, in which my W/L percentage was the highest of any Modern deck I played. For what it's worth, I've seen the bad sides of Grishoalbrand too, when I went 15-15 2 months later with it. That was ... rough to say the least. And I'll be honest too. When I was seeing the results with the deck, I told people that it is THE best deck and if they want to win, play this deck. I told them it's essentially a better, stronger deck than Bloom Titan, having played both of them.
I don't expect someone to believe me about Grishoalbrand. I just feel sometimes that I have to clear some misconceptions because people speak about a deck (not you) sometimes without even having played it or against it even once. I remember Paul Cheon playing Bogles and punting to Jund twice to finish 3-2 in League when he could have won both of them. He just said, "oh, Bogles just can't beat a resolved Liliana of the Veil." It's as if he didn't know that fetches can fetch Dryad Arbor or that the deck has 12 creatures, so there's nothing stopping you from playing a 2nd one out early in the game. Suuuuper smart and good player. Did he know how to play Bogles or even care? Nope.
Or if you want to see a funny or painful one, depending on your view, google Todd Stevens playing Cheerios.
EDIT> Like Finalnub, who is a regular here on mtgs, with Grishoalbrand. I don't know his record, but every time I hear of a 5-0 with Grishoalbrand recently, it's been him.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I know this Spanish player, he's playing a Mono G Tron list and he's destroying the leagues every day unlike anything I've ever seen. He's been literally around 70-10 in a few days, with multiple 5-0s and 8-0ing the Challenge.
Either people are not playing the right list or they are not doing the right things but the deck is extremely strong right now. Fallen off MTGO or not doesn't really mean anything. That lots of people play a deck doesn't mean it's great, and that little people play it doesn't mean it's not. In addition, for all we know, there could be a bunch of guys destroying leagues with it (I know for a fact 2 guys that are doing just that) and their lists just don't get published so we never get to know.
I think I've had posted 1 list out of my last ~20 5-0s.
EDIT: I just checked and he's 109-16.
lol
I despise Wizards approach to sharing data almost as much as I do seeing ETron on the other side of the table. Its just so extremely ignorant of them.
Re: Grishoalbrand
I don't think the deck is bad. I just don't think it's the Amulet Bloom sleeper some claim it to be. If a format is light to combo, play Storm. If a format is light to GY decks, play Dredge. Those decks have the results and tuning to back them up much more than Grishoalbrand. Huang's 2016 finishes on the deck only underscore this; it's done nothing since then.
I really want to know why UWR has such representation at SCG events. Its got its own little meta, or people just play what they want, and UWR Control is hitting that 'feel' for a lot of people?
I am loving Search for Azcanta right now, favorite new card in a long time for me.
I really want to know why UWR has such representation at SCG events. Its got its own little meta, or people just play what they want, and UWR Control is hitting that 'feel' for a lot of people?
I am loving Search for Azcanta right now, favorite new card in a long time for me.
I think people want to play blue interactive decks and Jeskai is good enough to do well in an open field with experienced pilots.
On a related note, but not a dig specifically at any poster, I don't understand this complaint that SCG events are glorified FNMs. Let's just assume they are, which itself is an unproven claim but we'll assume it for the sake of argunent. Why does that matter? Are these critics just gearing up for a PT all year long and playing in zero local/regional events? Isn't our main (or only) event type the average Modern player attends just a glorified FNM (or actual FNM) itself?
The only group of players who may be able to complain about this would be MTGO players who grind Leagues. Even before the Wizards data dearth started, there was significant reason to believe a League metagame was different than a paper one. But even there, it's needlessly dismissive to say that the reason SCG fields don't translate to MTGO is because InsertJabAtSCGHere. It's probably because unique MTGO League conditions make it generally different from paper.
Yeah I dont downplay the quality of play. I just think its an interesting thing that SCG (seemingly) is more receptive to UWR Decks, that in the MTGO world, do not perform as well.
I'm happy about it (when they dont display Standard on Stream) but it just makes me wonder why.
Anyway, the NFL calls, I have some Football to watch.
Yeah I dont downplay the quality of play. I just think its an interesting thing that SCG (seemingly) is more receptive to UWR Decks, that in the MTGO world, do not perform as well.
I'm happy about it (when they dont display Standard on Stream) but it just makes me wonder why.
Anyway, the NFL calls, I have some Football to watch.
If the best players (or most of them) are on Jeskai, then they have a higher liklihood of capitalizing on their 50/50 matchups, as well as higher liklihood that their bad matchups are being played by lower-skilled players that may make mistakes. It seems to be the only meta in which it does well because there is a disproportionate number of their best players on it most of the time. The deck has a lot of weaknesses and is difficult to play without ideal situations. There was a recent video from Great Nate showing how to win against Tron. He loses the first game in under 2 minutes, and slowly wins the next two games thanks to multiple mulligans and bricks on gas from his opponent. That's the kind of stuff that needs to happen in most of these bad matchups. But if you either dodge your bad matchups, get lucky, or have opponents making punts left and right, then Jeskai is absolutely amazing.
On a related note, but not a dig specifically at any poster, I don't understand this complaint that SCG events are glorified FNMs. Let's just assume they are, which itself is an unproven claim but we'll assume it for the sake of argunent. Why does that matter? Are these critics just gearing up for a PT all year long and playing in zero local/regional events? Isn't our main (or only) event type the average Modern player attends just a glorified FNM (or actual FNM) itself?
I haven't played in any SCG Opens since before they started the Day 2s. I just use it to prepare what someone will say when I use SCG results to try to prove a point. Remember, I did mention that they get tough on Day 2s and certainly the top 8.
Regarding Bob, literally nobody travels the SCG circuit playing Grishoalbrand. Yes, there may be a super valid reason they don't - it's not good enough or consistent enough to attract pilots like Jonathan Rosum. But it also is a reason why it hasn't had results. I'm pretty sure that I know 3 particular players personally that would "get results" with it if they could travel the SCG circuit. The odd thing about this dynamic - it's good for players that like to see their deck stick around. The moment the "regular Modern player" starts talking about how Grishoalbrand is doing well or is too good, I know my goose is cooked. Modern has always been a format where players want to do super well with their deck, but don't want the deck to do well on a national level.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
There's too much tron, storm, and random hollow one decks online for Jeskai to be dominant on mtgo. There's also no Shaun Mclaren hyping up the deck. I assume tron is pretty popular based on the price of Karn, it's pretty high.
Corey Burkhart has a recent video of him playing Jeskai control vs tron. He can win game 2 on the play, but loses games 1 and 3. He does that against both his tron opponents.
Some great gameplay and Modern lessons in this Humans vs. Jeskai Control matchup at SCG DFW. Rosum playing very tight and eking back into the game, Firer playing loose and getting punished for it. This showcases one of the main issues with Jeskai in Modern. If you make the wrong play (that Helix was horrible, lack of Cryptic is questionable, etc.) you get super punished for it because you can't fallback on very strong generic answers to get you back in. Answer misuse costs Firer the game and Rosum showcases his mastery with a deck that he put reps on. Excellent game all around that was very winnable for both sides.
There are a good number of players in those SCG tournaments that are good, and experts with Jeskai. So they like the deck, they play very well with it, have good results, we see Jeskai a lot.
If there is a single color combination that has kept modern alive over the years it's probably been URx. I generally like the legacy versions of these decks better due to the stronger interactions, but even in modern it generally has the most interesting gameplay. Well, especially compared to affinity or burn. Now that I think on it I haven't seen much of burn lately...
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Some great gameplay and Modern lessons in this Humans vs. Jeskai Control matchup at SCG DFW. Rosum playing very tight and eking back into the game, Firer playing loose and getting punished for it. This showcases one of the main issues with Jeskai in Modern. If you make the wrong play (that Helix was horrible, lack of Cryptic is questionable, etc.) you get super punished for it because you can't fallback on very strong generic answers to get you back in. Answer misuse costs Firer the game and Rosum showcases his mastery with a deck that he put reps on. Excellent game all around that was very winnable for both sides.
Actually, Rosum's main deck is Jeskai. He is a long time Jeskai enthusiast. He is on Humans for a month now. He hasn't got many reps with the deck. For sure, Firer has infinite more reps with his Jeskai decks than Rosum has with his new Humans deck, so that argument is invalid. I agree with the rest though.
I never said, and didn't think I suggested, that Firer had less reps on Jeskai than Rosum did on Humans. I know Firer has a lot of Jeskai experience. But I did think Rosum had more Humans experience than a monthish, probably because Rosum just played it at Columbus and it's fresh in my mind.
God damnit, I didn't know there was a modern tournament going on this weekend
I think we're going to see an ugly top 32 at the PT. I truly believe Jeskai will be in lower numbers, and that the pros will gravitate towards the linear decks.
Storm, Tron, Titanshift will all be poised, and I think something like Dredge could do very well.
Grixis Shadow is THE fair deck to leverage playskills, it should do well in theory, but I guess it also depends if the pro's have the patience to become competent with it. I don't know where to land on Grixis, I think it'll do either VERY well day 2 or bomb like the last GP.
I don't think we're going to see any team break modern---but I think we're going to see an ugly top 32 or ugly top 8 which disappoints the players who like decks of the fair variety
I know it's awful, but I'm rooting against GBx of all flavors so that maybe BBE/SFM get a chance in modern...Not that I think it needs my rooting, playing Jund, Junk or a Jeskai deck at the PT just seems like the wrong meta call, the pro's are going to jam combo and linear decks.
I doubt Jeskai's performance has any effect on an unban decision. There's no way WOTC would unban SFM just because of the PT itself, blue decks have done very well the second half of 2017
I dont give them much credit for sticking to anything they have said lately.
I think we all have strong reason to be suspicious of parts of Wizards. Especially the Arena team. But R&D itself is doing a great job in recent months and for most of 2017. They have been extremely transparent with banlist announcements this year, very data-driven in their explanations, and followed through on some key promises. Notably, they said they wouldn't do "shakeup bans" for the Modern PT and they kept that promise. They also dramatically improved communication around their view of Modern, talking about it all year even in "no changes" updates. Sure, they've had shortcomings. Like many Modern players, I too am unhappy with the decision to restrict MTGO data, but at least they were honest about why they were doing it (prevents formats from being solved), even if I think their rationale is bad (formats get solved anyway and data restriction doesn't stop that). Overall, I am much less suspicious of R&D closing out 2017 and going into 2018 than I felt about R&D throughout 2016 and the early part of 2017. They have done a fine job of repairing trust.
Like another user said, Wizards' departments probably don't talk too much. This means we shouldn't attribute the deception/suspicion in one department to another. This in turn means that we can't distrust R&D because, for example, we distrust the Arena team. For instance, we all see right through Arena's smoke and mirrors around their crafting system, the lack of trading, the lack of dusting, etc. Never mind how this game is probably going to hurt enfranchised players in other ways around their favorite old formats. Maybe all of this changes but as in most games, the first version of a system often reveals a game's true intentions, and these intentions do not seem to benefit veterans like us.
But Arena is not R&D, and I'm willing to keep giving R&D trust as long as they keep earning it. So far, we're in a good run of R&D transparency, and I like where they are heading and where Play Design appears to be heading alongside them.
Something with my gut says wotc doesn't want storm in this format. It's honestly surprising how resilient it is unless you're deck plays eidolon.
I do wonder if we see storm beat gds on camera a lot.
On a personal level I would be ok with a stirrings ban, I don't understand why on earth green and colorless get access to the best cantrips in modern. I really think it would take a broken amount of tron to have that happen
I think an sfm unban is...unlikely. why on earth would we give jeskai a bomb. Yes, it'd help junk, Mardu and Esper, and tax, but I'm not sure wotc will unban both at the same time.
I think an sfm unban is...unlikely. why on earth would we give jeskai a bomb.
Because the current Jeskai lists might not even want to play it. Remember, best case scenario, we are talking about all of your turn 2, and 2 mana on turn 3 to have a 4/4 vig lifelink swinging turn 4. This line of play seems much better in a deck that can run out the turn 1 discard. than one trying to play instant speed with counterspells and burn removal.
I think SFM is the most likely unban at this point and I could see it making a BW or Abzan midrange deck actually playable in the format.
I still think Storm is...an unhealthy deck thinking about it more
I know, I know, it's not dominating modern.
I think if we see two Storm decks in the top 8 it has a chance seeing a ban.
How is Storm an unhealthy deck? I'd agree with your point if we still had Seething Song, Rite of Flame, Ponder, and Preordain in the format, but as Storm sits right now...well it's not unhealthy.
Remember Modern is the format of the unfair. If you are trying to play "fair" Magic, you are in most ways putting yourself at a disadvantage. Storm as a deck has plenty of ways it can be countered, and sure Baral and Gifts help increase it's consistency, but you need to also be a good pilot to not fizzle. I don't think there are inherently any problems with how Storm as a deck is. I mean if *REDACTED* was still legal, would we be talking about how it was unhealthy for the format? I mean hell a lot of people want *REDACTED* back in the format. And yes I know there is a big difference between winning with a combo that involves creatures, and a combo that involves spells. However the one that involves spells also needs you to have a lot of correct pieces in the right place, and to usually win before turn 4 needs a creature you can interact with.
Public Mod Note
(Ulka):
Redacted or Not - Infraction for twin talk
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks: UBG Lantern Control GBU BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
Both of those are surprising. No Storm at all is surprising because the deck is evidently good. Proactive game one strategies are very strong as you see in decks like Affinity and Burn that had a lot of copies. Tron being only green variants also surprised me since we're in a period where Eldrazi Tron is super popular.
I wouldn't read too much into these results because it was a team open. I think team opens have people playing pet decks or people who don't play the format as much. So I would naturally expect more 1-ofs to show up in high results.
Honestly, Modern is in a fairly healthy position right now. Those results epitomize everything about Modern. We've got a few decks that appear to be better than the rest, which is something that's going to happen no matter what we do. You're never going to perfectly balance a field but nothing completely dominating the field is what we're aiming for. You've got some decks we expect to do well (Eldrazi Tron and Storm) that didn't make the top 32. Not every good deck is going to top every event in a format as wide open. Then you've got all the 1-of random decks that really emphasizes how even decks that aren't as good can sneak in some good performances.
I really hope they don't do much. BBE unban is the most plausible thing but I think no bans should be made.
I just don't really put a lot of stock in anecdotal, personal experience and records with any given deck. First, people can outright lie about their win percentages, so I'm skeptical out of the gate. There's a lot of financial and reputation incentive to do so online. That said, I don't think you're doing that; it's just a general suspicion. Second, people can selectively remember records or only start tracking them after a results drought. This also screws up the true MWP. I'll also just assume you aren't doing that, but it's possible you are. Third, people collect their win samples from dubious pools. They're testing on Cockatrice, in Friendly Leagues or random solo queues, in the same inbred FNM environment, with the same play group of 3-4 people, etc. There are definitely ways to minimize this bias, but few people actually take steps to do so. This taints the whole sample.
Fourth and most importantly, I had a 70% MWP with Cheeri0s all last spring; the only unfavorable matchup was GDS and it was buoyed by everything else. I tracked the games honestly and diligently and had a giant sample of 500+ games. Cheeri0s today? Garbage. No one plays it now, no one played it in the spring either. Clearly, some element of my testing was not translatable to the broader Modern field despite painstaking steps to avoid that fate.
All of these factors make me extremely suspicious of these kinds of reports. This thread is also full of them and Modern is full of them generally. Very, very few actually pan out. The only legitimate breakout deck that no one saw coming despite its longtime existence was Amulet Bloom, and that one came out of nowhere. Lantern Control is another one. Basically every other major GP and PT breakout was either with brand new stuff (e.g. Eldrazi) or just old faithfuls tuned to a new level and played by good pilots. For the most part, the untiered decks don't just emerge as format dangers or contenders.
I agree completely that you can't really necessarily believe what someone writes here. But I personally can because I've seen it. My LGS is not the most competitive one in the world, but it certainly is one of the stronger ones in my opinion. I personally compare my W/L record from one deck to another. That's what helps me find out what deck is potentially busted, like Eye of Ugin Eldrazi, in which my W/L percentage was the highest of any Modern deck I played. For what it's worth, I've seen the bad sides of Grishoalbrand too, when I went 15-15 2 months later with it. That was ... rough to say the least. And I'll be honest too. When I was seeing the results with the deck, I told people that it is THE best deck and if they want to win, play this deck. I told them it's essentially a better, stronger deck than Bloom Titan, having played both of them.
Here are some results by Bob Huang. Yes, SCG Opens are large FNMs. But they also get tougher on the Day 2s and in the top 8.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/player/Bob Huang
I don't expect someone to believe me about Grishoalbrand. I just feel sometimes that I have to clear some misconceptions because people speak about a deck (not you) sometimes without even having played it or against it even once. I remember Paul Cheon playing Bogles and punting to Jund twice to finish 3-2 in League when he could have won both of them. He just said, "oh, Bogles just can't beat a resolved Liliana of the Veil." It's as if he didn't know that fetches can fetch Dryad Arbor or that the deck has 12 creatures, so there's nothing stopping you from playing a 2nd one out early in the game. Suuuuper smart and good player. Did he know how to play Bogles or even care? Nope.
Or if you want to see a funny or painful one, depending on your view, google Todd Stevens playing Cheerios.
EDIT> Like Finalnub, who is a regular here on mtgs, with Grishoalbrand. I don't know his record, but every time I hear of a 5-0 with Grishoalbrand recently, it's been him.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)lol
I despise Wizards approach to sharing data almost as much as I do seeing ETron on the other side of the table. Its just so extremely ignorant of them.
Spirits
I don't think the deck is bad. I just don't think it's the Amulet Bloom sleeper some claim it to be. If a format is light to combo, play Storm. If a format is light to GY decks, play Dredge. Those decks have the results and tuning to back them up much more than Grishoalbrand. Huang's 2016 finishes on the deck only underscore this; it's done nothing since then.
Re: SCG DFW
Great metagame picture from Day 2. Tons of diversity and interaction across the board. Even Standard looks good!
http://www.starcitygames.com/events/coverage/4235_day_2_metagame_breakdown.html
Tron remains almosy nowhere to be seen. Storm literally didn't make Day 2. Promising stuff going into the PT.
I am loving Search for Azcanta right now, favorite new card in a long time for me.
Spirits
I think people want to play blue interactive decks and Jeskai is good enough to do well in an open field with experienced pilots.
On a related note, but not a dig specifically at any poster, I don't understand this complaint that SCG events are glorified FNMs. Let's just assume they are, which itself is an unproven claim but we'll assume it for the sake of argunent. Why does that matter? Are these critics just gearing up for a PT all year long and playing in zero local/regional events? Isn't our main (or only) event type the average Modern player attends just a glorified FNM (or actual FNM) itself?
The only group of players who may be able to complain about this would be MTGO players who grind Leagues. Even before the Wizards data dearth started, there was significant reason to believe a League metagame was different than a paper one. But even there, it's needlessly dismissive to say that the reason SCG fields don't translate to MTGO is because InsertJabAtSCGHere. It's probably because unique MTGO League conditions make it generally different from paper.
I'm happy about it (when they dont display Standard on Stream) but it just makes me wonder why.
Anyway, the NFL calls, I have some Football to watch.
Spirits
If the best players (or most of them) are on Jeskai, then they have a higher liklihood of capitalizing on their 50/50 matchups, as well as higher liklihood that their bad matchups are being played by lower-skilled players that may make mistakes. It seems to be the only meta in which it does well because there is a disproportionate number of their best players on it most of the time. The deck has a lot of weaknesses and is difficult to play without ideal situations. There was a recent video from Great Nate showing how to win against Tron. He loses the first game in under 2 minutes, and slowly wins the next two games thanks to multiple mulligans and bricks on gas from his opponent. That's the kind of stuff that needs to happen in most of these bad matchups. But if you either dodge your bad matchups, get lucky, or have opponents making punts left and right, then Jeskai is absolutely amazing.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I haven't played in any SCG Opens since before they started the Day 2s. I just use it to prepare what someone will say when I use SCG results to try to prove a point. Remember, I did mention that they get tough on Day 2s and certainly the top 8.
Regarding Bob, literally nobody travels the SCG circuit playing Grishoalbrand. Yes, there may be a super valid reason they don't - it's not good enough or consistent enough to attract pilots like Jonathan Rosum. But it also is a reason why it hasn't had results. I'm pretty sure that I know 3 particular players personally that would "get results" with it if they could travel the SCG circuit. The odd thing about this dynamic - it's good for players that like to see their deck stick around. The moment the "regular Modern player" starts talking about how Grishoalbrand is doing well or is too good, I know my goose is cooked. Modern has always been a format where players want to do super well with their deck, but don't want the deck to do well on a national level.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Corey Burkhart has a recent video of him playing Jeskai control vs tron. He can win game 2 on the play, but loses games 1 and 3. He does that against both his tron opponents.
https://youtu.be/F8TES3fQOQE?t=46m29s
I think rest in peace and stony silence are too good of sideboard cards to not play in fair decks.
If there is a single color combination that has kept modern alive over the years it's probably been URx. I generally like the legacy versions of these decks better due to the stronger interactions, but even in modern it generally has the most interesting gameplay. Well, especially compared to affinity or burn. Now that I think on it I haven't seen much of burn lately...
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I never said, and didn't think I suggested, that Firer had less reps on Jeskai than Rosum did on Humans. I know Firer has a lot of Jeskai experience. But I did think Rosum had more Humans experience than a monthish, probably because Rosum just played it at Columbus and it's fresh in my mind.
I think we're going to see an ugly top 32 at the PT. I truly believe Jeskai will be in lower numbers, and that the pros will gravitate towards the linear decks.
Storm, Tron, Titanshift will all be poised, and I think something like Dredge could do very well.
Grixis Shadow is THE fair deck to leverage playskills, it should do well in theory, but I guess it also depends if the pro's have the patience to become competent with it. I don't know where to land on Grixis, I think it'll do either VERY well day 2 or bomb like the last GP.
I don't think we're going to see any team break modern---but I think we're going to see an ugly top 32 or ugly top 8 which disappoints the players who like decks of the fair variety
I know it's awful, but I'm rooting against GBx of all flavors so that maybe BBE/SFM get a chance in modern...Not that I think it needs my rooting, playing Jund, Junk or a Jeskai deck at the PT just seems like the wrong meta call, the pro's are going to jam combo and linear decks.
Spirits
Unbans seem likely. They literally talked about unbans in October's update.
Spirits
I think we all have strong reason to be suspicious of parts of Wizards. Especially the Arena team. But R&D itself is doing a great job in recent months and for most of 2017. They have been extremely transparent with banlist announcements this year, very data-driven in their explanations, and followed through on some key promises. Notably, they said they wouldn't do "shakeup bans" for the Modern PT and they kept that promise. They also dramatically improved communication around their view of Modern, talking about it all year even in "no changes" updates. Sure, they've had shortcomings. Like many Modern players, I too am unhappy with the decision to restrict MTGO data, but at least they were honest about why they were doing it (prevents formats from being solved), even if I think their rationale is bad (formats get solved anyway and data restriction doesn't stop that). Overall, I am much less suspicious of R&D closing out 2017 and going into 2018 than I felt about R&D throughout 2016 and the early part of 2017. They have done a fine job of repairing trust.
Like another user said, Wizards' departments probably don't talk too much. This means we shouldn't attribute the deception/suspicion in one department to another. This in turn means that we can't distrust R&D because, for example, we distrust the Arena team. For instance, we all see right through Arena's smoke and mirrors around their crafting system, the lack of trading, the lack of dusting, etc. Never mind how this game is probably going to hurt enfranchised players in other ways around their favorite old formats. Maybe all of this changes but as in most games, the first version of a system often reveals a game's true intentions, and these intentions do not seem to benefit veterans like us.
But Arena is not R&D, and I'm willing to keep giving R&D trust as long as they keep earning it. So far, we're in a good run of R&D transparency, and I like where they are heading and where Play Design appears to be heading alongside them.
I know, I know, it's not dominating modern.
I think if we see two Storm decks in the top 8 it has a chance seeing a ban.
I do wonder if we see storm beat gds on camera a lot.
On a personal level I would be ok with a stirrings ban, I don't understand why on earth green and colorless get access to the best cantrips in modern. I really think it would take a broken amount of tron to have that happen
I think an sfm unban is...unlikely. why on earth would we give jeskai a bomb. Yes, it'd help junk, Mardu and Esper, and tax, but I'm not sure wotc will unban both at the same time.
Because the current Jeskai lists might not even want to play it. Remember, best case scenario, we are talking about all of your turn 2, and 2 mana on turn 3 to have a 4/4 vig lifelink swinging turn 4. This line of play seems much better in a deck that can run out the turn 1 discard. than one trying to play instant speed with counterspells and burn removal.
I think SFM is the most likely unban at this point and I could see it making a BW or Abzan midrange deck actually playable in the format.
How is Storm an unhealthy deck? I'd agree with your point if we still had Seething Song, Rite of Flame, Ponder, and Preordain in the format, but as Storm sits right now...well it's not unhealthy.
Remember Modern is the format of the unfair. If you are trying to play "fair" Magic, you are in most ways putting yourself at a disadvantage. Storm as a deck has plenty of ways it can be countered, and sure Baral and Gifts help increase it's consistency, but you need to also be a good pilot to not fizzle. I don't think there are inherently any problems with how Storm as a deck is. I mean if *REDACTED* was still legal, would we be talking about how it was unhealthy for the format? I mean hell a lot of people want *REDACTED* back in the format. And yes I know there is a big difference between winning with a combo that involves creatures, and a combo that involves spells. However the one that involves spells also needs you to have a lot of correct pieces in the right place, and to usually win before turn 4 needs a creature you can interact with.
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros
Anyways, here's SCG Dallas Team Open top 32
https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/7s28fc/scg_dallas_modern_day_2_metagame_jan_21/
Yes, that's 0 Storm, 2 total Tron
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
I wouldn't read too much into these results because it was a team open. I think team opens have people playing pet decks or people who don't play the format as much. So I would naturally expect more 1-ofs to show up in high results.
Honestly, Modern is in a fairly healthy position right now. Those results epitomize everything about Modern. We've got a few decks that appear to be better than the rest, which is something that's going to happen no matter what we do. You're never going to perfectly balance a field but nothing completely dominating the field is what we're aiming for. You've got some decks we expect to do well (Eldrazi Tron and Storm) that didn't make the top 32. Not every good deck is going to top every event in a format as wide open. Then you've got all the 1-of random decks that really emphasizes how even decks that aren't as good can sneak in some good performances.
I really hope they don't do much. BBE unban is the most plausible thing but I think no bans should be made.
Grixis Death's Shadow, Jund, UW Tron, Jeskai Control, Storm, Counters Company, Eldrazi Tron, Affinity, Living End, Infect, Merfolk, Dredge, Ad Nauseam, Amulet, Bogles, Eldrazi Tron, Mono U Tron, Lantern, Mardu Pyromancer