Diva, besides having hyperboles that can be compared to our President, where are you getting your stats?
If you want to be honest, nearly ever game has the
(Play these few things to win)
(Everything else that is inferior)
It doesn't mean those decks are bad or can't take a tournament
I mean, I'd put your suicide bloo in the inferior category
I'd put all your claims about UW in the inferior category
You go on about all your data that you collect through watching Twitch---good for you. Most of that is still you inserting your opinion into a lot of these facts
It's also really expensive to play the best deck at all times. I have a ton of staples in modern, but it feels like whenever there's something new or hot, i have to spend hundreds to play that deck. So, yeah, sure, there are large numbers of people happy playing their inferior deck
Like h0ly, I also suspect many people are playing worse versions of top decks without knowing it. For example, Storm is probably the pound-for-pound beat linear/combo deck in Modern. But unlike h0ly, I don't have any actual stats (hyperbolic or otherwise) to back this up. It's just an anecdotal feeling from seeing T8s. GDS and ETron are also in this category for a similar reason, because these decks appear to have the most consistent T8 showings. But again, this is more a suspicion than anything, and I'd be curious if people have actual evidence to confirm or deny the theory.
I know how I'd do this analysis if anyone wants to steal the method: check Storm, ETron, and GDS prevalence in Day 2 metas and the overall paper T8 meta. Then compare that prevalence to their showing in large T8s (events with >100 or >200 players). If they are overrepresented in those bigger, more impressive venues, that would suggest they are probably better than their competition, at least on that big-event stage.
Do you go for the cost reducers, another ritual spell, another cantrip, gifts ungiven, past in flames, grapeshot? I can honestly see an argument being made for any of these. Based on how they have treated storm in the past, they usually go for rituals (seething song and rite of flame) or cantrips (ponder, preordain, and gitaxian probe), but none of these categories of cards seem overpowered from a modern standpoint.
Then that means "X Deck should be banned so we can have good blue cards" (something being claimed for years) is a meaningless, fruitless, and pointless argument. Meaning that banning *redacted*, which was supposed to free up the stranglehold on blue cards, was a complete ruse and totally false.
Do you go for the cost reducers, another ritual spell, another cantrip, gifts ungiven, past in flames, grapeshot? I can honestly see an argument being made for any of these. Based on how they have treated storm in the past, they usually go for rituals (seething song and rite of flame) or cantrips (ponder, preordain, and gitaxian probe).
Wizards doesn't like killing decks, especially combo decks. See Probe ban. See Bloom ban. So Grapeshot and PiF seem unlikely. Baral seems like a better ban. Storm was fine before Baral and has only been a problem since then. No other decks use Baral either.
Not saying it's bannable (in fact, Storm's T3 win% has dropped in my sample from 14% to 12%). But if Storm does violate the T4 rule, I think Baral is the easiest option.
Do you go for the cost reducers, another ritual spell, another cantrip, gifts ungiven, past in flames, grapeshot? I can honestly see an argument being made for any of these. Based on how they have treated storm in the past, they usually go for rituals (seething song and rite of flame) or cantrips (ponder, preordain, and gitaxian probe).
Wizards doesn't like killing decks, especially combo decks. See Probe ban.
1) Yeah, they only nuke decks that don't deserve it.
2) Probe ban completely killed Infect, Delver, and Pump Shadow decks (evolution of Shadow came from the combination of Jund and Delver dying and plays more like those than the original version).
They might not want to destroy decks, but their incompetence and inability to understand nuances of deck building and metagames seem to lead them that way inadvertently.
Do you go for the cost reducers, another ritual spell, another cantrip, gifts ungiven, past in flames, grapeshot? I can honestly see an argument being made for any of these. Based on how they have treated storm in the past, they usually go for rituals (seething song and rite of flame) or cantrips (ponder, preordain, and gitaxian probe).
Wizards doesn't like killing decks, especially combo decks. See Probe ban.
1) Yeah, they only nuke decks that don't deserve it.
2) Probe ban completely killed Infect, Delver, and Pump Shadow decks (evolution of Shadow came from the combination of Jund and Delver dying and plays more like those than the original version).
They might not want to destroy decks, but their incompetence and inability to understand nuances of deck building and metagames seem to lead them that way inadvertently.
If you want to talk about (1), go to the PM thread. Looking at every other ban, Wizards doesn't internationally nuke decks.
As for unintentionally nuking decks, that's an even stronger reason why Wizards would not ban an obvious card like Grapeshot or PiF. They try to ban around problem cards (e.g. banning Probe instead of Become Immense) and sometimes nuke the deck by accident.
Also, I can't tell if you are criticizing the Probe ban. That ban rocked. The format is much better with that card gone. DS with Probe would have been particularly offensive.
Also, I can't tell if you are criticizing the Probe ban. That ban rocked. The format is much better with that card gone. DS with Probe would have been particularly offensive.
That's a hindsight conjecture. We have no idea how the deck would have evolved, especially if Delver and Infect were still relevant.
I would say that the only actual cards in Storm that don't straight kill the deck if banned are the cantrips (they can just go and play other worse cantrips) and the Remands (they can just not play them).
If they hit any of rituals, Manamorphose, Gifts, creatures, storm spells themselves, PiF... the deck is dead for competitive purposes. From those, the closest to not killing the deck, in the sense that it would actually be dead but people would still play it pretending it's not the case, it's actually banning Empty.
Any other kills it dead. That one would leave nostalgics playing it.
The deck was playable before Baral and might be too good/fast now. Baral feels like the clear scale-tipper and ban target. Wizards doesn't care if it's less competitive. They just want it viable, and ritual/storm card bans just hurt playability too much. Maybe Wizards takes a totally new approach and just nukes the deck, but historically, that isn't precedented.
I would say that the only actual cards in Storm that don't straight kill the deck if banned are the cantrips (they can just go and play other worse cantrips) and the Remands (they can just not play them).
If they hit any of rituals, Manamorphose, Gifts, creatures, storm spells themselves, PiF... the deck is dead for competitive purposes. From those, the closest to not killing the deck, in the sense that it would actually be dead but people would still play it pretending it's not the case, it's actually banning Empty.
Any other kills it dead. That one would leave nostalgics playing it.
The deck was playable before Baral and might be too good/fast now. Baral feels like the clear scale-tipper and ban target. Wizards doesn't care if it's less competitive. They just want it viable, and ritual/storm card bans just hurt playability too much. Maybe Wizards takes a totally new approach and just nukes the deck, but historically, that isn't precedented.
For dredge, the scale tippers were Prized Amalgam and Cathartic Reunion but they weren't the cards that ended up getting banned from the deck.
Just because Baral was what pushed storm over the top recently, it doesn't mean it will be the card that will be banned if the time comes for such a thing (we will see what the Pro Tour brings)
In fact, I would actually find it strange if Baral is targeted. Storm is a lot easier to interact with when you have to rely on creatures
I think banning Gifts alone would be most likely, with an explanation that it increases the consistency of the storm deck too much and causes its games to play out in the same way, which it really does. If Gifts was gone, storm players could still use Peer through Depths or Pieces of the Puzzle but it would not guarantee a win like Gifts does
I think the ban from Storm is either going to be Goblin Electromancer (so that they have to go back to the Ascension builds and are more vulnerable to hate) or Past in Flames (if they just want to kill the deck dead).
I don't want them to ban Gifts Ungiven, since it's a card that's good in fringe decks and fun to play with, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.
I did jokingly predict that Finkel and Budde will end up in a Storm mirror in the finals of the PT and WotC will respond with "Islands are now banned in Modern", though.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
Also, this means they won't ever print a Baral type of creature again in the future. Which limits their design space.
Wizards does not actually care about new cards breaking formats. See: Treasure Cruise, all the new Eldrazi, and Prized Amalgam/Cathartic Reunion, etc. They will print whatever they want whenever they want and deal with the aftermath later. If we aren't seeing specific cards, it's because they don't want to give them to us. "Limiting design space" is a cop-out, BS justification.
I think that storm isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. Just like in other formats, if a deck is affordable or proven more people will play that deck, and the more people playing the deck the more likely it's going to show up in the top 8. I'm not saying that Storm isn't a T1 deck or that it can't kill people on turn 3, but the current version of storm is a kind of deck that people haven't played against in a long time in modern and it's going to take people time to adjust for it.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Just a note on the modern challenge results, noting an uptick on burn in there. People have been saying that burn eats storm alive. I think this current meta is reaching a peak if it keeps going like this.
Like people were discussing earlier in this thread, when there is a clear top deck, the meta becomes top deck (storm), counter to top deck (Burn), and counters to the counters (funnily enough, goryo's became this this round).
Either way, will see if this is a continuing trend.
Gifts only really does its thing because Storm can consistently have an early cost reducer, AND because Gifts piles become very much a catch 22 while they can play Past In Flames.
I feel like PiF is the real problem card here... turns out that worse Yawgmoth's Will is still a Yawgmoth's Will and still broken.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
Gifts only really does its thing because Storm can consistently have an early cost reducer, AND because Gifts piles become very much a catch 22 while they can play Past In Flames.
I feel like PiF is the real problem card here... turns out that worse Yawgmoth's Will is still a Yawgmoth's Will and still broken.
It's actually a better Yawg Will in the deck because it has flashback and can be cast for red mana.
Why do we care if it dies? What makes it any more important than other decks that have "died"? I thought that no deck was entitled to any form of success?
I agree with the above, Past in Flames is probably the card that will get banned if they want to keep the Storm mechanic around. But it isn't entirely implausible that they would just kill the Storm mechanic itself. Of course we're getting ahead of ourselves, best just to wait a few months for PT and see what's up.
I think they should just ban grapeshot and empty. This deck has been the reason why a good amount of cards are on the ban list, just get rid of it. I can see an argument to keep it alive by letting them play empty if they want, it is a significantly worse deck if that's their only win-con, but it still contorts what wizards can print in the future.
Killing storm takes away some of the more cancerous aspects of modern, it's a deck that you have to dedicate a lot of your sideboard to beat, it's a deck that can still win through your hate, and it can kill pretty consistently on turn 3.
I think unless they ban grapeshot they have to ban gifts. Past in flames can be beat by gravehate and it's really the last part in the combo, you have to already be set up to use it properly. Gifts sets them up and at least gets them up a card against gravehate (it can get 2 cantrips to help them find an answer for example). I don't think people want them to ban gifts, and I don't think it's fair that they keep this deck alive by banning cards that aren't a problem otherwise.
Legacy has force of will to deal with things like this, we don't have that. Maybe if they unban stoneforge and bloodbraid then the b/g/x decks can close the door on this deck after they disrupt it more consistently, but you still only get a 3-4 turn window (2-3 on the draw) to mess the deck up before it kills you and it has a ton of redundancy with cards like gifts so you can't take a long time to actually win.
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If MTG is a part of your life, the formats are like relationships:
Standard/Block = The on-again, off-again holiday fling
Modern/Vintage/Legacy = Stable, homely. A ***** after absence/misreading
Limited/Sealed = Heart breaking free spirit
Commander/Cube = Agreeable, needy and expensive
Pauper/Peasant = Sweet, kind, practical, but shy and boring
Do you go for the cost reducers, another ritual spell, another cantrip, gifts ungiven, past in flames, grapeshot? I can honestly see an argument being made for any of these. Based on how they have treated storm in the past, they usually go for rituals (seething song and rite of flame) or cantrips (ponder, preordain, and gitaxian probe).
Wizards doesn't like killing decks, especially combo decks. See Probe ban. See Bloom ban. So Grapeshot and PiF seem unlikely. Baral seems like a better ban. Storm was fine before Baral and has only been a problem since then. No other decks use Baral either.
Not saying it's bannable (in fact, Storm's T3 win% has dropped in my sample from 14% to 12%). But if Storm does violate the T4 rule, I think Baral is the easiest option.
I don't see a difference between banning Past in Flames and Birthing Pod. Wizards may not like outright killing decks, but I feel in this situation they should. Baral is an enabler, but the engine is Past in Flames.
As far as what to ban from Storm if it came to it (let's face it, flags keep popping up) I'd pick Manamorphose. It does a lot of work for this deck, mana fixing, mini ramping with a reducer, and cantriping it takes a lot of steam from this deck without hitting "fair" decks.
Still, this will hurt Kiln Fiend, Izzet Guildmage and similar shotgun/combo brews, some I've wanted to try even if considered non-top tier.
Still the question is does this open up the meta? I actually think it might as this deck (storm) doesn't have a clear answer outside of taking away their wincon cards. Still have to wait and see if that would be the case or even if a ban will come.
If you want to be honest, nearly ever game has the
(Play these few things to win)
(Everything else that is inferior)
It doesn't mean those decks are bad or can't take a tournament
I mean, I'd put your suicide bloo in the inferior category
I'd put all your claims about UW in the inferior category
You go on about all your data that you collect through watching Twitch---good for you. Most of that is still you inserting your opinion into a lot of these facts
It's also really expensive to play the best deck at all times. I have a ton of staples in modern, but it feels like whenever there's something new or hot, i have to spend hundreds to play that deck. So, yeah, sure, there are large numbers of people happy playing their inferior deck
I know how I'd do this analysis if anyone wants to steal the method: check Storm, ETron, and GDS prevalence in Day 2 metas and the overall paper T8 meta. Then compare that prevalence to their showing in large T8s (events with >100 or >200 players). If they are overrepresented in those bigger, more impressive venues, that would suggest they are probably better than their competition, at least on that big-event stage.
It doesn't seem as obvious as previous bans such as Treasure Cruise, Birthing Pod, Deathrite Shaman, or Eye of Ugin.
Do you go for the cost reducers, another ritual spell, another cantrip, gifts ungiven, past in flames, grapeshot? I can honestly see an argument being made for any of these. Based on how they have treated storm in the past, they usually go for rituals (seething song and rite of flame) or cantrips (ponder, preordain, and gitaxian probe), but none of these categories of cards seem overpowered from a modern standpoint.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Wizards doesn't like killing decks, especially combo decks. See Probe ban. See Bloom ban. So Grapeshot and PiF seem unlikely. Baral seems like a better ban. Storm was fine before Baral and has only been a problem since then. No other decks use Baral either.
Not saying it's bannable (in fact, Storm's T3 win% has dropped in my sample from 14% to 12%). But if Storm does violate the T4 rule, I think Baral is the easiest option.
1) Yeah, they only nuke decks that don't deserve it.
2) Probe ban completely killed Infect, Delver, and Pump Shadow decks (evolution of Shadow came from the combination of Jund and Delver dying and plays more like those than the original version).
They might not want to destroy decks, but their incompetence and inability to understand nuances of deck building and metagames seem to lead them that way inadvertently.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
If you want to talk about (1), go to the PM thread. Looking at every other ban, Wizards doesn't internationally nuke decks.
As for unintentionally nuking decks, that's an even stronger reason why Wizards would not ban an obvious card like Grapeshot or PiF. They try to ban around problem cards (e.g. banning Probe instead of Become Immense) and sometimes nuke the deck by accident.
Also, I can't tell if you are criticizing the Probe ban. That ban rocked. The format is much better with that card gone. DS with Probe would have been particularly offensive.
That's a hindsight conjecture. We have no idea how the deck would have evolved, especially if Delver and Infect were still relevant.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
How do I join this?
The deck was playable before Baral and might be too good/fast now. Baral feels like the clear scale-tipper and ban target. Wizards doesn't care if it's less competitive. They just want it viable, and ritual/storm card bans just hurt playability too much. Maybe Wizards takes a totally new approach and just nukes the deck, but historically, that isn't precedented.
For dredge, the scale tippers were Prized Amalgam and Cathartic Reunion but they weren't the cards that ended up getting banned from the deck.
Just because Baral was what pushed storm over the top recently, it doesn't mean it will be the card that will be banned if the time comes for such a thing (we will see what the Pro Tour brings)
In fact, I would actually find it strange if Baral is targeted. Storm is a lot easier to interact with when you have to rely on creatures
I think banning Gifts alone would be most likely, with an explanation that it increases the consistency of the storm deck too much and causes its games to play out in the same way, which it really does. If Gifts was gone, storm players could still use Peer through Depths or Pieces of the Puzzle but it would not guarantee a win like Gifts does
I don't want them to ban Gifts Ungiven, since it's a card that's good in fringe decks and fun to play with, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.
I did jokingly predict that Finkel and Budde will end up in a Storm mirror in the finals of the PT and WotC will respond with "Islands are now banned in Modern", though.
Wizards does not actually care about new cards breaking formats. See: Treasure Cruise, all the new Eldrazi, and Prized Amalgam/Cathartic Reunion, etc. They will print whatever they want whenever they want and deal with the aftermath later. If we aren't seeing specific cards, it's because they don't want to give them to us. "Limiting design space" is a cop-out, BS justification.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Like people were discussing earlier in this thread, when there is a clear top deck, the meta becomes top deck (storm), counter to top deck (Burn), and counters to the counters (funnily enough, goryo's became this this round).
Either way, will see if this is a continuing trend.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
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I feel like PiF is the real problem card here... turns out that worse Yawgmoth's Will is still a Yawgmoth's Will and still broken.
It's actually a better Yawg Will in the deck because it has flashback and can be cast for red mana.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Killing storm takes away some of the more cancerous aspects of modern, it's a deck that you have to dedicate a lot of your sideboard to beat, it's a deck that can still win through your hate, and it can kill pretty consistently on turn 3.
I think unless they ban grapeshot they have to ban gifts. Past in flames can be beat by gravehate and it's really the last part in the combo, you have to already be set up to use it properly. Gifts sets them up and at least gets them up a card against gravehate (it can get 2 cantrips to help them find an answer for example). I don't think people want them to ban gifts, and I don't think it's fair that they keep this deck alive by banning cards that aren't a problem otherwise.
Legacy has force of will to deal with things like this, we don't have that. Maybe if they unban stoneforge and bloodbraid then the b/g/x decks can close the door on this deck after they disrupt it more consistently, but you still only get a 3-4 turn window (2-3 on the draw) to mess the deck up before it kills you and it has a ton of redundancy with cards like gifts so you can't take a long time to actually win.
Standard/Block = The on-again, off-again holiday fling
Modern/Vintage/Legacy = Stable, homely. A ***** after absence/misreading
Limited/Sealed = Heart breaking free spirit
Commander/Cube = Agreeable, needy and expensive
Pauper/Peasant = Sweet, kind, practical, but shy and boring
I don't see a difference between banning Past in Flames and Birthing Pod. Wizards may not like outright killing decks, but I feel in this situation they should. Baral is an enabler, but the engine is Past in Flames.
Still, this will hurt Kiln Fiend, Izzet Guildmage and similar shotgun/combo brews, some I've wanted to try even if considered non-top tier.
Still the question is does this open up the meta? I actually think it might as this deck (storm) doesn't have a clear answer outside of taking away their wincon cards. Still have to wait and see if that would be the case or even if a ban will come.
Thanks to Heroes of the Plane Studios for the sigpic.
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