What do you think of this article? "Player skill can't compare with knowledge and testing of the format."
Here's my take. Sometimes it can. I played Standard recently at PPTQs, GPTs (which I realize are not that competitive), and Game Days (less competitive than FNM), but I practiced the Standard format exactly 0. I hate the format. I only played to get my first non-Modern RPTQ qualification, which I failed at. Yet, I made the top 8 in 2 out of 5 of these tournaments, yes, playing broken decks in 3 of them (Cat Combo for 1 and Marvel for 2). I have no business beating players who practice Standard and live and breathe Standard. But, I wasn't able to make it out of the top 4 in any of these, so there's something there as well.
I play Modern a lot. I live and breathe Modern, but often I find a lot of variance in Modern. That's part of the reason people love Modern so much. Cards like Preordain, Ponder, and Green Sun's Zenith are banned more for being consistency tools, rather than power (you can't honestly tell me with a straight face that Jace, the Mind Sculptor is less stronger than those cards). I find my knowledge and testing of the format to fail from time to time just because of matchups. I don't want to go as far as sisicat, although I agree with a lot of what he says, but there's no denying - there's a lot more variance in this format than Legacy or Standard for example.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I largely agree with this article. It's why players like Craig Wescoe T8 a GP with a deck they've been playing for years. Or why Daniel Wong got to the Vegas T8 with Taking Turns. Or why Todd Stevens and his beloved Eldrazi Tron have so much recent success. Just take a look at some of the MTGO regulars who play their decks all the time and routinely repeat 5-0 performances in the Leagues, whether in this current metagame or in past ones. The format is significantly more skill-rewarding than many claim.
In Legacy, you have fewer matchups and overall less diversity, so skill plays out in choices on Brainstorm, Ponder, Preordain, FoW, Daze, Wasteland, Therapy, etc. These cards are hugely skill-tesitng, and the matchups between the top decks reflect the skill in using those cards effectively. In Modern, you don't have those same kinds of skill-testing cards (indeed, we don't have any of the above cards) but you have significantly more deck diversity. This requires more knowledge of more decks, their sideboards, your sideboarding plan against them, and your/their overall gameplan. It means you need to change how you use your cards every game.
I've watched the pros and vocal streamers that complain about variance, and when I see their games, I see endless misplays and small errors that result in losses. Slamming TS on T1 against decks with no significant T1 or T2 plays and then moaning about a topdeck that won the opponent the game. Mindlessly Bolting dorks before losing to Druid combo. Picking the wrong card off IoK/TS. Choosing the wrong mode on Esper Charm, K-Command, or Cryptic for the matchup. Killing a Baral and then tapping out with more removal in hand and getting wrecked by a T4 Electromancer into the combo after an opponent cantripped three times in the match. Keeping Affinity or Elves hands with no business spells against decks with sweepers. Making awful sideboard decisions like Leyline of Sanctity against Ad Nauseam. Choosing to stay on the play against discard decks like 8Rack. Endless misplays and misjudgments of opposing decks.
Then I watch the games of more technical pilots with deeper format knowledge and see them pick up huge margins from format knowledge. They don't tilt, complain, or blame external factors, and they break down all their choices against opposing possibilities. I don't remember the player, but I recently watched a game where a streamer was in G2 or G3 against a Storm deck. Without even looking up the opposing list, he was worried about the opponent boarding in a Blood Moon plan B and he mulliganed his first hand because it didn't have fetchlands. He kept his second and fetched an Island to Serum Visions on the draw. Sure enough, the opponent rituals into a Moon on their second turn. This is where players in that first category I described above would rage about swingy Modern cards but this guy already knew it and already had the out. Modern needs more of that play and clarity, not the complaining.
Player skill is actually just as important as format knowledge and testing. One of the recent GPs for Modern, Reid Duke was playing Jund, and the round he was on camera (like 12 or 13) the commentators has said something like "Yeah, reid is on Jund...from like 6 months ago. Nothing spicy or innovative in his list, its like he just picked up a Jund deck from 6-8 months ago and decided he was gonna play it." Reid didn't end up getting into the T8 IIRC, but at the time he was on camera he was X-1 I believe. Yeah, maybe the reason he missed T8 was because he ran into decks that Jund just cant beat or whatever, but at the same time, Jund really isnt that popular right now, yet Reid piloted it to a strong finish.
This is where player skill comes in; knowing the format and having that testing and being able to translate that into those small decision trees like when to cast TS/IOK and what to correctly take, when/what to use removal on, what to use a counterspell on. The 2nd biggest difference I think is when a player knows a format and has the skill to be given any competitive deck in that format and play it correctly.
Player skill is actually just as important as format knowledge and testing. One of the recent GPs for Modern, Reid Duke was playing Jund, and the round he was on camera (like 12 or 13) the commentators has said something like "Yeah, reid is on Jund...from like 6 months ago. Nothing spicy or innovative in his list, its like he just picked up a Jund deck from 6-8 months ago and decided he was gonna play it." Reid didn't end up getting into the T8 IIRC, but at the time he was on camera he was X-1 I believe. Yeah, maybe the reason he missed T8 was because he ran into decks that Jund just cant beat or whatever, but at the same time, Jund really isnt that popular right now, yet Reid piloted it to a strong finish.
This is where player skill comes in; knowing the format and having that testing and being able to translate that into those small decision trees like when to cast TS/IOK and what to correctly take, when/what to use removal on, what to use a counterspell on. The 2nd biggest difference I think is when a player knows a format and has the skill to be given any competitive deck in that format and play it correctly.
Reid was rolling the dice hoping to catch people off guard by playing jund. Sometimes it pays off to play something unexpected but it's a gamble. He was probably banking that jund sb hate wouldn't show up. Reid has great play skill he rarely ever beats himself.
I used to know a guy who could routinely win competitive FNMs with a intro pre constructed deck and two packs of cards solely on play skill. He in joyed doing it, sometimes he would even let other players pick the deck . I think player skill has a High impact on win percentages granted there are decks that are good enough to pilot themselves.
Making awful sideboard decisions like Leyline of Sanctity against Ad Nauseam. Choosing to stay on the play against discard decks like 8Rack.
Can you explain these? I thought Leyline was good against Ad Nauseam, and personally, as an Affinity player, I always want to be on the play. What's the difference with 8Rack?
Leyline is awful against Ad Naus. Either they board in Truth to bounce it, Fragmentize to kill it, or Maniac to win around it. All of those are easily played after a resolved Ad Naus, so Leyline becomes a dead card in your hand and your deck.
8Rack blows up your hand, so many decks will prefer to be up a card against them. Especially decks that are slower and have higher card quality and no critical T1 plays. Affinity might be fine going first though.
Making awful sideboard decisions like Leyline of Sanctity against Ad Nauseam. Choosing to stay on the play against discard decks like 8Rack.
Can you explain these? I thought Leyline was good against Ad Nauseam, and personally, as an Affinity player, I always want to be on the play. What's the difference with 8Rack?
Leyline is awful against Ad Naus. Either they board in Truth to bounce it, Fragmentize to kill it, or Maniac to win around it. All of those are easily played after a resolved Ad Naus, so Leyline becomes a dead card in your hand and your deck.
The thing is, that still makes it harder for them to win, because they need extra mana. Fragmentize is 1, Echoing Truth is 2, and Laboratory Maniac is 1 (functionally speaking--it replaces Lightning Storm so it's 3-for-3, but then you have to cast a Serum Visions to actually win). That may not seem like much but it can delay them a turn and that can be the difference between victory and defeat.
It's not much of a roadblock, but it is still a roadblock.
8Rack blows up your hand, so many decks will prefer to be up a card against them. Especially decks that are slower and have higher card quality and no critical T1 plays. Affinity might be fine going first though.
I don't know how much that extra card is actually worth the tempo loss of not going first, even against 8Rack. Sure, you have 1 extra card... but them going first gives them an extra turn to yank that extra card out of your hand.
Also, if you're playing a deck that Ensnaring Bridge is relevant against, you definitely want the 8Rack player going first, because it means the Ensnaring Bridge is cast later (allowing you to get more utility out of your creatures) and they'll have drawn an extra card, making it harder to empty their hand enough to get usage out of Ensnaring Bridge's effect.
Ad nauseam wins through leyline for 0 extra mana with Patrician's Scorn.
While this has been true in the past, look at the recent lists. I copied my Ad Nauseam deck from 2 recent lists that I looked at - one from a Grand Prix winner. Neither of them has Patrician's Scorn anymore like the old lists. Now I should clarify that I mean recent as in a couple of months ago, lol. I haven't seen the most recent list from a month until today - perhaps they have brought back the Scorn?
1. Regarding Leyline vs. Ad Nauseam, I personally feel like it's not worth it. But I am coming mostly from the Ad Nauseam view point - it is merely a speed bump that won't matter in a HUGE percentage of the games, simply because of Lab Man. Now if you have cards that kill Lab Man at instant speed and you believe the opponent sided out Pact of Negation completely (which I doubt is ever done), they maybe you have a reason to leave in Leyline. I personally wouldn't put it. Maybe I'm wrong, but I wouldn't.
2. Regarding playing against 8 Rack, I think it really comes down to the deck you're playing against it. Affinity would probably want to go first. Grixis Death's Shadow may not mind not going first, since they have answers to Ensnaring Bridge in K Command and Stubborn Denial with it on the stack. I believe that Ktkenshinx's point is that players blindly choose to go first without even considering the matchup and I think we can agree that we've all been guilty of that at some point. I know in Sealed, I've often considered going 2nd, but never really had the guts because I often feel like my deck has no early game and thus can get steamrolled, losing with the extra cards in hand.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
2. Regarding playing against 8 Rack, I think it really comes down to the deck you're playing against it. Affinity would probably want to go first. Grixis Death's Shadow may not mind not going first, since they have answers to Ensnaring Bridge in K Command and Stubborn Denial with it on the stack. I believe that Ktkenshinx's point is that players blindly choose to go first without even considering the matchup and I think we can agree that we've all been guilty of that at some point. I know in Sealed, I've often considered going 2nd, but never really had the guts because I often feel like my deck has no early game and thus can get steamrolled, losing with the extra cards in hand.
I think in a constructed format that has the speed and ferocity that Modern does, it is basically always correct to want to go first. The example of 8-Rack is extremely narrow and niche and possibly not even correct for any deck capable of presenting a quick clock. You're going to be empty handed quickly which means you want things on the board quickly. Allowing them to go first often means giving them a free-roll Thoughtseize, removing your best card, and immediately puts you on the back foot, susceptible to T2 Wrench Mind. That means before you even draw your second card or play your second land, you're down 3 cards and likely had your desired turn 1 play (and possibly turns 2 and 3) removed. You are stuck durdling while your hand is getting torn apart, always a turn behind. 8-Rack eventually wins with The Rack or Shrieking Affliction or Mutavault beats, but their early plays are almost exclusively discard, discard, discard, or double discard. There's a guy that plays locally with it every once in a while and I would never elect to be on the draw, especially if I have access to cards like Thoughtseize myself. It's not that people are "blindly" going first, it's that the situations where you would NOT want to go first are basically non-existent in Modern, outside of cute things like reanimator decks drawing, not playing a land, and discarding the fatty to hand size.
Though I do agree that, depending on the sealed/draft environment, going second and drawing a card is almost always good in Limited. Games are long, grindy, midrange-fests most of the time. Individual card quality is often so low that pure quantity of cards is almost always more valuable. Plus, the games are slow enough that the speed advantage of going first is minimal most of the time. The same cannot be said about Modern (except MAYBE long, durdely control mirrors, but LOL, like that happens these days... ).
Given that 8-rack players almost always choose to be on the draw not the play, I would say denying them that is probably correct. Obviously there are caveats here, but it's a decent general rule.
What do you think of this article? "Player skill can't compare with knowledge and testing of the format."
Here's my take. Sometimes it can. I played Standard recently at PPTQs, GPTs (which I realize are not that competitive), and Game Days (less competitive than FNM), but I practiced the Standard format exactly 0. I hate the format. I only played to get my first non-Modern RPTQ qualification, which I failed at. Yet, I made the top 8 in 2 out of 5 of these tournaments, yes, playing broken decks in 3 of them (Cat Combo for 1 and Marvel for 2). I have no business beating players who practice Standard and live and breathe Standard. But, I wasn't able to make it out of the top 4 in any of these, so there's something there as well.
I play Modern a lot. I live and breathe Modern, but often I find a lot of variance in Modern. That's part of the reason people love Modern so much. Cards like Preordain, Ponder, and Green Sun's Zenith are banned more for being consistency tools, rather than power (you can't honestly tell me with a straight face that Jace, the Mind Sculptor is less stronger than those cards). I find my knowledge and testing of the format to fail from time to time just because of matchups. I don't want to go as far as sisicat, although I agree with a lot of what he says, but there's no denying - there's a lot more variance in this format than Legacy or Standard for example.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)In Legacy, you have fewer matchups and overall less diversity, so skill plays out in choices on Brainstorm, Ponder, Preordain, FoW, Daze, Wasteland, Therapy, etc. These cards are hugely skill-tesitng, and the matchups between the top decks reflect the skill in using those cards effectively. In Modern, you don't have those same kinds of skill-testing cards (indeed, we don't have any of the above cards) but you have significantly more deck diversity. This requires more knowledge of more decks, their sideboards, your sideboarding plan against them, and your/their overall gameplan. It means you need to change how you use your cards every game.
I've watched the pros and vocal streamers that complain about variance, and when I see their games, I see endless misplays and small errors that result in losses. Slamming TS on T1 against decks with no significant T1 or T2 plays and then moaning about a topdeck that won the opponent the game. Mindlessly Bolting dorks before losing to Druid combo. Picking the wrong card off IoK/TS. Choosing the wrong mode on Esper Charm, K-Command, or Cryptic for the matchup. Killing a Baral and then tapping out with more removal in hand and getting wrecked by a T4 Electromancer into the combo after an opponent cantripped three times in the match. Keeping Affinity or Elves hands with no business spells against decks with sweepers. Making awful sideboard decisions like Leyline of Sanctity against Ad Nauseam. Choosing to stay on the play against discard decks like 8Rack. Endless misplays and misjudgments of opposing decks.
Then I watch the games of more technical pilots with deeper format knowledge and see them pick up huge margins from format knowledge. They don't tilt, complain, or blame external factors, and they break down all their choices against opposing possibilities. I don't remember the player, but I recently watched a game where a streamer was in G2 or G3 against a Storm deck. Without even looking up the opposing list, he was worried about the opponent boarding in a Blood Moon plan B and he mulliganed his first hand because it didn't have fetchlands. He kept his second and fetched an Island to Serum Visions on the draw. Sure enough, the opponent rituals into a Moon on their second turn. This is where players in that first category I described above would rage about swingy Modern cards but this guy already knew it and already had the out. Modern needs more of that play and clarity, not the complaining.
This is where player skill comes in; knowing the format and having that testing and being able to translate that into those small decision trees like when to cast TS/IOK and what to correctly take, when/what to use removal on, what to use a counterspell on. The 2nd biggest difference I think is when a player knows a format and has the skill to be given any competitive deck in that format and play it correctly.
WBG Karador GBW
R Daretti R
RG Omnath GR
WRG Modern Burn GRW
WB Modern Tokens BW
DCI Rules Advisor as of 5/18/2015
I used to know a guy who could routinely win competitive FNMs with a intro pre constructed deck and two packs of cards solely on play skill. He in joyed doing it, sometimes he would even let other players pick the deck . I think player skill has a High impact on win percentages granted there are decks that are good enough to pilot themselves.
Leyline is awful against Ad Naus. Either they board in Truth to bounce it, Fragmentize to kill it, or Maniac to win around it. All of those are easily played after a resolved Ad Naus, so Leyline becomes a dead card in your hand and your deck.
8Rack blows up your hand, so many decks will prefer to be up a card against them. Especially decks that are slower and have higher card quality and no critical T1 plays. Affinity might be fine going first though.
It's not much of a roadblock, but it is still a roadblock.
I don't know how much that extra card is actually worth the tempo loss of not going first, even against 8Rack. Sure, you have 1 extra card... but them going first gives them an extra turn to yank that extra card out of your hand.
Also, if you're playing a deck that Ensnaring Bridge is relevant against, you definitely want the 8Rack player going first, because it means the Ensnaring Bridge is cast later (allowing you to get more utility out of your creatures) and they'll have drawn an extra card, making it harder to empty their hand enough to get usage out of Ensnaring Bridge's effect.
While this has been true in the past, look at the recent lists. I copied my Ad Nauseam deck from 2 recent lists that I looked at - one from a Grand Prix winner. Neither of them has Patrician's Scorn anymore like the old lists. Now I should clarify that I mean recent as in a couple of months ago, lol. I haven't seen the most recent list from a month until today - perhaps they have brought back the Scorn?
1. Regarding Leyline vs. Ad Nauseam, I personally feel like it's not worth it. But I am coming mostly from the Ad Nauseam view point - it is merely a speed bump that won't matter in a HUGE percentage of the games, simply because of Lab Man. Now if you have cards that kill Lab Man at instant speed and you believe the opponent sided out Pact of Negation completely (which I doubt is ever done), they maybe you have a reason to leave in Leyline. I personally wouldn't put it. Maybe I'm wrong, but I wouldn't.
2. Regarding playing against 8 Rack, I think it really comes down to the deck you're playing against it. Affinity would probably want to go first. Grixis Death's Shadow may not mind not going first, since they have answers to Ensnaring Bridge in K Command and Stubborn Denial with it on the stack. I believe that Ktkenshinx's point is that players blindly choose to go first without even considering the matchup and I think we can agree that we've all been guilty of that at some point. I know in Sealed, I've often considered going 2nd, but never really had the guts because I often feel like my deck has no early game and thus can get steamrolled, losing with the extra cards in hand.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)But agreed, leyline is usually just a speed bump for ad naus, not a silver bullet.
I think in a constructed format that has the speed and ferocity that Modern does, it is basically always correct to want to go first. The example of 8-Rack is extremely narrow and niche and possibly not even correct for any deck capable of presenting a quick clock. You're going to be empty handed quickly which means you want things on the board quickly. Allowing them to go first often means giving them a free-roll Thoughtseize, removing your best card, and immediately puts you on the back foot, susceptible to T2 Wrench Mind. That means before you even draw your second card or play your second land, you're down 3 cards and likely had your desired turn 1 play (and possibly turns 2 and 3) removed. You are stuck durdling while your hand is getting torn apart, always a turn behind. 8-Rack eventually wins with The Rack or Shrieking Affliction or Mutavault beats, but their early plays are almost exclusively discard, discard, discard, or double discard. There's a guy that plays locally with it every once in a while and I would never elect to be on the draw, especially if I have access to cards like Thoughtseize myself. It's not that people are "blindly" going first, it's that the situations where you would NOT want to go first are basically non-existent in Modern, outside of cute things like reanimator decks drawing, not playing a land, and discarding the fatty to hand size.
Though I do agree that, depending on the sealed/draft environment, going second and drawing a card is almost always good in Limited. Games are long, grindy, midrange-fests most of the time. Individual card quality is often so low that pure quantity of cards is almost always more valuable. Plus, the games are slow enough that the speed advantage of going first is minimal most of the time. The same cannot be said about Modern (except MAYBE long, durdely control mirrors, but LOL, like that happens these days... ).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Marath, Will of the Wild Tokens!! / Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund Dragons! / Muzzio, Visionary Architect / Brago, King Eternal / Daretti, Scrap Savant / Narset, Enlightened Master / Alesha, Who Smiles at Death / Bruna, Light of Alabaster / Marchesa, the Black Rose / Iroas, God of Victory / Freyalise, Llanowar's Fury / Omnath, Locus of rage / Titania, Protector of Argoth / Kozilek, the Great Distortion
Modern
Elves / Titanshift / Merfolk