Number of lands Average CMC range Type of deck (percentages are for being on the play)
18 0.48-0.80 Low-curve deck – You only need 1 or 2 lands to function, and you have no 3-drops in your deck
19 0.80-1.12 Low-curve deck – You need 2 lands on turn 2 (97.7%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (76.5%) for some 3-drops
20 1.12-1.44 Low-curve deck – You need 2 lands on turn 2 (98.3%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (79.6%) for some 3-drops
21 1.44-1.76 Aggro deck – You need 2 lands on turn 2 every game (98.8%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (82.3%) for several 3-drops
22 1.76-2.08 Aggro deck – You need 2 lands on turn 2 every game (99.2%) but would like 3 lands on turn 3 (84.7%) for several 3-drops
23 2.08-2.40 Aggro deck – You need 3 lands on turn 3 in most games (86.8%); 4 lands by turn 4 (67.7%) is nice but not necessary
24 2.40-2.72 Midrange deck – You need 3 lands on turn 3 in most games (88.7%); 4 lands by turn 4 is nice (71.3%) but not necessary
25 2.72-3.04 Midrange deck – You need your 3rd land drop (90.4%) to function and want to hit your 4th relatively often (74.7%)
26 3.04-3.36 Control deck – You need your 3rd land drops (91.8%) to function and want to hit your 4th relatively often (77.9%)
27 3.36-3.68 Control deck – You need your 4th land drop (80.8%) to function and regularly want to hit your 5th (65.3%)
There was an amazing article with a lot of complex math posted on SCG last week and I think it warrants some attention here. I posted the conclusion above, but I suggest any doubters check the full article here.
There was an amazing article with a lot of complex math posted on SCG last week and I think it warrants some attention here. I posted the conclusion above, but I suggest any doubters check the full article here.
http://diestoremoval.com/hypergeometric-distribution
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/standard-type-2/standard-archives/127499-how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero