Decks like Lantern are why I'm glad the Modern format is as diverse as it is. Those kinds of decks can exists but we don't have to watch them every single round.
lol, I turned the stream off after Sullivan dropped Padome to wall the Noble Hierarch. That matchup was godly in its boring glory, it wasn't fun watching one person playing magic in both rounds
Ross playing green tron was hilarious
The stoic face Jessup managed to keep as his opponent casted multiple AV's was awesome
I'm witnesseing a godly amount of hate against Grixis Shadow in the MTGO practice rooms, haven't seen it get this inbred since Dredge was king.
My coworker is letting me know ever time Death's Shadow is on the twitch stream at the SCG thing. So it's been on all day, I expect a ban.
Well they only ran 4 rounds of Modern today, and the last round saw several thousand people turn the stream off (nearly half the viewers) after witnessing this glorious choice of a feature match (attached) and knowing that Standard was up next.
Lol, so that's where he got the idea that Lantern Control was going to be his deck.
Wanted to follow-up on the discussion of risk- and odds-based decisions. Like cf, I also make almost all plays based on some kind of probability-based calculation. What is the chance the opponent has this card? Draws this card in X turns? What is the chance I draw something in X turns? Lots of players do this and it's a smart way to reduce the impact of variance.
Where it goes wrong, however, is when players don't account for the game impact of those probabilities. If a low probability event has a high probability of creating a good or bad outcome, that weighting needs to be considered. Most players don't do that and make bad decisions as a result and then blame variance.
For example, assume I'm playing GB Tron on the draw vs. Storm and I have Mine, Tower, Map, Sphere, Karn, Stirrings, and L-Wastes. That's a sweet hand in a lot of matchups and also sweet against Storm... if they don't T2 engine me and win on T3. Here, I know the probability of drawing removal on T1/2 or TS on T1 is, say, 10%, and if I draw that, I'm 80% likely to win. But in the 60%+ of hands where my opponent has an engine, I'm probably 90% likely to lose. Then we still need to factor the percentage of mulling into a playable hand with/without removal and reevaluating our odds from there. Oh, and you need to do that all in 30 seconds or less for every single matchup you might face. You also might want to change your deck/SB configuration to alter those numbers so they're more favorable, while also weighing the cost of changes.
Players that make these decisions are generally not human calculators. They are just very experienced with their deck and its matchups so they can accurately ballpark all those numbers. Or, maybe, even know some of them exactly. This is just one of many, many examples of where Modern diversity requires tight play, smart decisions, and matchup knowledge to address natural variance. I typically see Modern complainants fail to do this and Modern aficionados succeed. Tilt, netdecking, inaccurate format narratives, vocal detractors, and general inexperience can all be at play here.
Hell no. The chance of missing interaction is too high, and some interaction like Relic/Cage wouldn't even prevent a Warrens line. Even TS will only help on T1, which means I really need Push/Dismember/Contortion and nothing else. I don't maximize my win chances by hoping Storm misses on its engine with a full grip of 7, a T1 cantrip and fetch, and a T2 draw. Tron mulls well and can assemble powerful T3/T4 plays out of nowhere, and my odds of drawing a playable hand with disruption (TS or removal) off 6 and scry are much higher than my odds of topdecking disruption (but TS only on T1) and/or making it through that game with that hand.
Even if I missed on the mull, I wouldn't results-orient myself into thinking I made the wrong play and got ****ed by variance. I would know I played to the most probable out and, in the long run, would win more games overall because of that.
Players that make these decisions are generally not human calculators. They are just very experienced with their deck and its matchups so they can accurately ballpark all those numbers. Or, maybe, even know some of them exactly. This is just one of many, many examples of where Modern diversity requires tight play, smart decisions, and matchup knowledge to address natural variance. I typically see Modern complainants fail to do this and Modern aficionados succeed. Tilt, netdecking, inaccurate format narratives, vocal detractors, and general inexperience can all be at play here.
Pretty much like in any sport, you don't need a paper in physics or even a calculator to play the game. You just know what works and what doesn't, regardless of the actual intricacies behind/below. I think it's a combination of talent, intuition and experience. Sometimes it's pretty obvious, sometimes you learn the hard way. I agree that one common pitfall is going by misconceptions hidden behind "known facts" that you had never the intention or the opportunity to actually test for yourself. People also just have to get over the whole variance thing, it's part of the game. You can always sideboard correctly, mulligan correctly, play flawlessly and to your odds... and still lose to the perfect draw at the perfect time. And that's alright.
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Modern:WU WU Control | WBG Abzan Company Frontier:UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
Hate to say it guys but I think Street Wraith is next on the chopping block. It fits with wizards recent theme of slowing down the top tier decks without killing them off completely.
In other news, Hour of Devastation looks extremely lackluster for Modern playability. The best card is probably Claim//Fame, but I'm not sure it even has a home because I think K Command is just better and the two are fighting for the same spot.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
In other news, Hour of Devastation looks extremely lackluster for Modern playability. The best card is probably Claim//Fame, but I'm not sure it even has a home because I think K Command is just better and the two are fighting for the same spot.
Really? I think claim//fame is going to be bananas in modern and very good in shadow. Seems better than k command in a lot of spots and hasted ds's seem like no joke.
I could be wrong, but IMHO BW tokens will rise to at least tier 2. It has a good matchup against Grixisi Shadow and no terrible matchups. It disrupts linear decks, is too wide for fair decks, and has excellent sideboard cards. It got boosted by push and concealed courtyard, and path is as good as it's ever been. I know the deck has all the good black control cards, but the deck has white weenies as a win con, and needs double white turn 2 for auriok champion and triple white turn 3 for spectral procession.
If SFM doesn't get unbanned, at least white mages can play Death and Taxes or BW tokens and have competitive matches.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
In other news, Hour of Devastation looks extremely lackluster for Modern playability. The best card is probably Claim//Fame, but I'm not sure it even has a home because I think K Command is just better and the two are fighting for the same spot.
Really? I think claim//fame is going to be bananas in modern and very good in shadow. Seems better than k command in a lot of spots and hasted ds's seem like no joke.
Burn and affinity are tier 1 decks and K command is much better against those decks, plus it has great synergy with Snapcaster Mage. In the vast majority of situations, K command is much better. It's an instant, it's a 2-4-1, and it's more versitile.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Hate to say it guys but I think Street Wraith is next on the chopping block. It fits with wizards recent theme of slowing down the top tier decks without killing them off completely.
I think Stoneforge Mystic is next on the chopping block. It breaks the ban cycle, strengthens a weak color without making it bananas, and it helps build a format besides Legacy where the playerbase maybe kind of has a little faith in WotC's management.
Hate to say it guys but I think Street Wraith is next on the chopping block. It fits with wizards recent theme of slowing down the top tier decks without killing them off completely.
I wouldn't bet against it. Wizards loves the race to the bottom, prefers to ban first and ask questions later, doesn't do unbans, is heavily influenced by vocal opinions, and doesn't like when there's a best deck. The odds are not in DS's favor.
In other news, Hour of Devastation looks extremely lackluster for Modern playability. The best card is probably Claim//Fame, but I'm not sure it even has a home because I think K Command is just better and the two are fighting for the same spot.
Really? I think claim//fame is going to be bananas in modern and very good in shadow. Seems better than k command in a lot of spots and hasted ds's seem like no joke.
K Command is card advantage, Claim//Fame is not. It also does absolutely nothing if you don't have a Shadow or Snap in the Graveyard. To me, it feels the same as Temur Battle Rage. It'll have its spots where it looks good, but there will be a bunch of times where you'll draw it and it's a blank and you'll wish it was literally any other card in your deck. Plus, graveyard hate is already one of the biggest ways people fight Grixis Shadow. Claim//Fame is a dead card if your opponent has a RiP or black Leyline. I'm going to try the card out, but my initial feeling is it won't make the cut.
In other news, Hour of Devastation looks extremely lackluster for Modern playability. The best card is probably Claim//Fame, but I'm not sure it even has a home because I think K Command is just better and the two are fighting for the same spot.
I think Liliana's defeat could be a good (2 of?) sideboard card for delve fatties, might give U/B control decks a cheap way to deal with all that nonsense. But yeah a weak modern set (which is fine by me as it saves me spending more cash)
In other news, Hour of Devastation looks extremely lackluster for Modern playability. The best card is probably Claim//Fame, but I'm not sure it even has a home because I think K Command is just better and the two are fighting for the same spot.
Really? I think claim//fame is going to be bananas in modern and very good in shadow. Seems better than k command in a lot of spots and hasted ds's seem like no joke.
K Command is card advantage, Claim//Fame is not. It also does absolutely nothing if you don't have a Shadow or Snap in the Graveyard. To me, it feels the same as Temur Battle Rage. It'll have its spots where it looks good, but there will be a bunch of times where you'll draw it and it's a blank and you'll wish it was literally any other card in your deck. Plus, graveyard hate is already one of the biggest ways people fight Grixis Shadow. Claim//Fame is a dead card if your opponent has a RiP or black Leyline. I'm going to try the card out, but my initial feeling is it won't make the cut.
Same is true for k command, you draw it with nothing good to do and it's meh. Claim//Fame is still card advantage it's literally 2 cards in 1. If you're in a position where you never have a ds/snap/fame in your gy sure it's a dead card. K command can't get you a snap and ds in play for 2 mana this can. You're still only looking at it in gds (where it will be good, and btw tbr is good in gds) but there will be plenty of other spots where this card will be great. Gds has an advantage of going to delve creatures to mitigate fp's power now this has the advantage of mitigating fp's power too. In a format with goyf, flayer, bob, snapcaster, Druid, vizier, recruiter, sculler, young peezy, sfm (maybe it'll see the light soon), elves, goblins, puresteel/sram (I play esper Cheerios for fun but it also got leave//chance this set) blah blah blah there are just a ton of opportunities for the card to do things that decks haven't been able to do.
Liliana's Defeat is a card that will make us feel miserable at times, I am sure of it.
And about Claim // Fame, it's not as good as I thought. It's not a mainboard material, unless the meta is too grindy. But 1 off in the sideboard, maybe 2 is fine.
In before AF: "New technology like Liliana's Defeat has started to rise"
Who's us? Gds players? Because this isn't the gds forum. If someone could brew something cool with defeats and painter servants that'd be cool imo.
In other news, Hour of Devastation looks extremely lackluster for Modern playability. The best card is probably Claim//Fame, but I'm not sure it even has a home because I think K Command is just better and the two are fighting for the same spot.
Really? I think claim//fame is going to be bananas in modern and very good in shadow. Seems better than k command in a lot of spots and hasted ds's seem like no joke.
K Command is card advantage, Claim//Fame is not. It also does absolutely nothing if you don't have a Shadow or Snap in the Graveyard. To me, it feels the same as Temur Battle Rage. It'll have its spots where it looks good, but there will be a bunch of times where you'll draw it and it's a blank and you'll wish it was literally any other card in your deck. Plus, graveyard hate is already one of the biggest ways people fight Grixis Shadow. Claim//Fame is a dead card if your opponent has a RiP or black Leyline. I'm going to try the card out, but my initial feeling is it won't make the cut.
Same is true for k command, you draw it with nothing good to do and it's meh. Claim//Fame is still card advantage it's literally 2 cards in 1. If you're in a position where you never have a ds/snap/fame in your gy sure it's a dead card. K command can't get you a snap and ds in play for 2 mana this can. You're still only looking at it in gds (where it will be good, and btw tbr is good in gds) but there will be plenty of other spots where this card will be great. Gds has an advantage of going to delve creatures to mitigate fp's power now this has the advantage of mitigating fp's power too. In a format with goyf, flayer, bob, snapcaster, Druid, vizier, recruiter, sculler, young peezy, sfm (maybe it'll see the light soon), elves, goblins, puresteel/sram (I play esper Cheerios for fun but it also got leave//chance this set) blah blah blah there are just a ton of opportunities for the card to do things that decks haven't been able to do.
1. K command almost always has something it can do. 2 damage to the opponent is an option if they don't have any creatures 2 damage can kill or a planeswalker. You can make them discard a card as long as they have cards in hand. It can return any creature from your GY to your hand. It can destroy any artifact.
Claim on the other hand only works with DS or Snapcaster in the yard, and I doubt it will see play in the side because opponents side in GY hate against GDS.
2. There are better options for most of the decks you named, mainly eternal witness for the green decks. The card may see some play, but it won't affect the meta much.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Not sure why people are ao optimistic about Defeat. Dark Betrayal sees zero play and Defeat only hits the two Lilianas in addition to the targets Betrayal already hits. Betrayal is even an instant! Defeat is overall way too narrow, and there are times where the life loss is actually to the DS pilot's advantage. I expect Claim improves DS more than Defeat hinders it, and then I expect Wizards to do what they do best and ban something instead of unbanning or taking no action.
Claim//Fame will often just be a dead card, I think. Destroying artifacts, zapping for 2, discarding and gy all in one card---it just has way too much utility
Lillian's defeat is so narrow, it's probably something you'll see in a local FNM where a salty player doesn't want to lose to midrange decks.
Unless that 3 mana wrath is an allstar I don't see this set doing much
Claim//Fame will often just be a dead card, I think. Destroying artifacts, zapping for 2, discarding and gy all in one card---it just has way too much utility
Lillian's defeat is so narrow, it's probably something you'll see in a local FNM where a salty player doesn't want to lose to midrange decks.
Unless that 3 mana wrath is an allstar I don't see this set doing much
The 3 mana wrath might have a place in unconventional decks like Tezzerator since they have mana rocks. But I don't see it replacing Damnation in black decks.
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Spirits
Spirits
Ross playing green tron was hilarious
The stoic face Jessup managed to keep as his opponent casted multiple AV's was awesome
I'm witnesseing a godly amount of hate against Grixis Shadow in the MTGO practice rooms, haven't seen it get this inbred since Dredge was king.
Spirits
Lol, so that's where he got the idea that Lantern Control was going to be his deck.
Where it goes wrong, however, is when players don't account for the game impact of those probabilities. If a low probability event has a high probability of creating a good or bad outcome, that weighting needs to be considered. Most players don't do that and make bad decisions as a result and then blame variance.
For example, assume I'm playing GB Tron on the draw vs. Storm and I have Mine, Tower, Map, Sphere, Karn, Stirrings, and L-Wastes. That's a sweet hand in a lot of matchups and also sweet against Storm... if they don't T2 engine me and win on T3. Here, I know the probability of drawing removal on T1/2 or TS on T1 is, say, 10%, and if I draw that, I'm 80% likely to win. But in the 60%+ of hands where my opponent has an engine, I'm probably 90% likely to lose. Then we still need to factor the percentage of mulling into a playable hand with/without removal and reevaluating our odds from there. Oh, and you need to do that all in 30 seconds or less for every single matchup you might face. You also might want to change your deck/SB configuration to alter those numbers so they're more favorable, while also weighing the cost of changes.
Players that make these decisions are generally not human calculators. They are just very experienced with their deck and its matchups so they can accurately ballpark all those numbers. Or, maybe, even know some of them exactly. This is just one of many, many examples of where Modern diversity requires tight play, smart decisions, and matchup knowledge to address natural variance. I typically see Modern complainants fail to do this and Modern aficionados succeed. Tilt, netdecking, inaccurate format narratives, vocal detractors, and general inexperience can all be at play here.
Hell no. The chance of missing interaction is too high, and some interaction like Relic/Cage wouldn't even prevent a Warrens line. Even TS will only help on T1, which means I really need Push/Dismember/Contortion and nothing else. I don't maximize my win chances by hoping Storm misses on its engine with a full grip of 7, a T1 cantrip and fetch, and a T2 draw. Tron mulls well and can assemble powerful T3/T4 plays out of nowhere, and my odds of drawing a playable hand with disruption (TS or removal) off 6 and scry are much higher than my odds of topdecking disruption (but TS only on T1) and/or making it through that game with that hand.
Even if I missed on the mull, I wouldn't results-orient myself into thinking I made the wrong play and got ****ed by variance. I would know I played to the most probable out and, in the long run, would win more games overall because of that.
Frontier: UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Really? I think claim//fame is going to be bananas in modern and very good in shadow. Seems better than k command in a lot of spots and hasted ds's seem like no joke.
If SFM doesn't get unbanned, at least white mages can play Death and Taxes or BW tokens and have competitive matches.
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Burn and affinity are tier 1 decks and K command is much better against those decks, plus it has great synergy with Snapcaster Mage. In the vast majority of situations, K command is much better. It's an instant, it's a 2-4-1, and it's more versitile.
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
I think Stoneforge Mystic is next on the chopping block. It breaks the ban cycle, strengthens a weak color without making it bananas, and it helps build a format besides Legacy where the playerbase maybe kind of has a little faith in WotC's management.
I wouldn't bet against it. Wizards loves the race to the bottom, prefers to ban first and ask questions later, doesn't do unbans, is heavily influenced by vocal opinions, and doesn't like when there's a best deck. The odds are not in DS's favor.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I think Liliana's defeat could be a good (2 of?) sideboard card for delve fatties, might give U/B control decks a cheap way to deal with all that nonsense. But yeah a weak modern set (which is fine by me as it saves me spending more cash)
Legacy - LED Dredge, ANT & WDnT
Same is true for k command, you draw it with nothing good to do and it's meh. Claim//Fame is still card advantage it's literally 2 cards in 1. If you're in a position where you never have a ds/snap/fame in your gy sure it's a dead card. K command can't get you a snap and ds in play for 2 mana this can. You're still only looking at it in gds (where it will be good, and btw tbr is good in gds) but there will be plenty of other spots where this card will be great. Gds has an advantage of going to delve creatures to mitigate fp's power now this has the advantage of mitigating fp's power too. In a format with goyf, flayer, bob, snapcaster, Druid, vizier, recruiter, sculler, young peezy, sfm (maybe it'll see the light soon), elves, goblins, puresteel/sram (I play esper Cheerios for fun but it also got leave//chance this set) blah blah blah there are just a ton of opportunities for the card to do things that decks haven't been able to do.
Who's us? Gds players? Because this isn't the gds forum. If someone could brew something cool with defeats and painter servants that'd be cool imo.
1. K command almost always has something it can do. 2 damage to the opponent is an option if they don't have any creatures 2 damage can kill or a planeswalker. You can make them discard a card as long as they have cards in hand. It can return any creature from your GY to your hand. It can destroy any artifact.
Claim on the other hand only works with DS or Snapcaster in the yard, and I doubt it will see play in the side because opponents side in GY hate against GDS.
2. There are better options for most of the decks you named, mainly eternal witness for the green decks. The card may see some play, but it won't affect the meta much.
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
Claim//Fame will often just be a dead card, I think. Destroying artifacts, zapping for 2, discarding and gy all in one card---it just has way too much utility
Lillian's defeat is so narrow, it's probably something you'll see in a local FNM where a salty player doesn't want to lose to midrange decks.
Unless that 3 mana wrath is an allstar I don't see this set doing much
The 3 mana wrath might have a place in unconventional decks like Tezzerator since they have mana rocks. But I don't see it replacing Damnation in black decks.